Findings

Acto de amor

Kevin Lewis

April 14, 2014

Causal effect of intergroup contact on exclusionary attitudes

Ryan Enos
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 11 March 2014, Pages 3699–3704

Abstract:
The effect of intergroup contact has long been a question central to social scientists. As political and technological changes bring increased international migration, understanding intergroup contact is increasingly important to scientific and policy debates. Unfortunately, limitations in causal inference using observational data and the practical inability to experimentally manipulate demographic diversity has limited scholars’ ability to address the effects of intergroup contact. Here, I report the results of a randomized controlled trial testing the causal effects of repeated intergroup contact, in which Spanish-speaking confederates were randomly assigned to be inserted, for a period of days, into the daily routines of unknowing Anglo-whites living in homogeneous communities in the United States, thus simulating the conditions of demographic change. The result of this experiment is a significant shift toward exclusionary attitudes among treated subjects. This experiment demonstrates that even very minor demographic change causes strong exclusionary reactions. Developed nations and politically liberal subnational units are expected to experience a politically conservative shift as international migration brings increased intergroup contact.

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Crossing the Border and Migration Duration

Michael Quinn
Contemporary Economic Policy, forthcoming

Abstract:
Policies to deter illegal entry and reduce the number of undocumented immigrants have a complex impact on migration patterns, border crossings, and duration. However, studies generally assume the method of crossing into the United States is exogenous with respect to migration duration. Using data from the Mexican Migration Project, this paper finds that the migrant's decision to hire a coyote (smuggler) to cross the border is endogenous with respect to duration. Instrumental variable estimates provide evidence that migrants who incur the cost of hiring a coyote have longer migration durations as they need to work longer in the United States. The migrants most likely to hire coyotes have less education, little migration experience, and/or come from rural communities. Results suggest that continuing to increase guest worker programs could actually decrease the number of Mexican immigrants in the United States by eliminating the need for coyotes which would reduce migration durations. This would better utilize the immigrant population in the United States by encouraging immigrants to stay while employed and to migrate home when unemployed, with the knowledge they can later return. Reducing coyote use would also reduce income flowing to Mexican cartels which have profited from human smuggling.

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The Labor Market Effects of Reducing Undocumented Immigrants

Andri Chassamboulli & Giovanni Peri
NBER Working Paper, February 2014

Abstract:
A key controversy in US immigration reforms is how to deal with undocumented workers. Some policies aimed at reducing them, such as increased border security or deportation will reduce illegal immigrants as well as total immigrants. Other policies, such as legalization would decrease the illegal population but increase the legal one. These policies have different effects on job creation as they affect the firm profits from creating a new job. Economists have never analyzed this issue. We set up and simulate a novel and general model of labor markets, with search and legal/illegal migration between two countries. We then calibrate it to the US and Mexico labor markets and migration. We find that policies increasing deportation rates have the largest negative effect on employment opportunities of natives. Legalization, instead has a positive employment effect for natives. This is because repatriations are disruptive of job matches and they reduce job-creation by US firms. Legalization instead stimulates firms' job creation by increasing the total number of immigrants and stimulating firms to post more vacancies some of which are filled by natives.

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Policy Climates, Enforcement Rates, and Migrant Behavior: Is Self-Deportation a Viable Immigration Policy?

Rene Rocha et al.
Policy Studies Journal, February 2014, Pages 79–100

Abstract:
U.S. immigration policy has been the subject of considerable debate in recent years. Previous research has focused on how temporal variation in federal policy has altered the migratory behavior of immigrants. The effect of spatial variation in enforcement remains untested. Relying on the criminological distinction between general and specific deterrence, we argue that high rates of enforcement are unlikely to encourage undocumented immigrants to self-deport. We also examine the effects of cultural and economic immigration policies adopted by the states. Previous research suggests that migrants will choose to remain in states with favorable environments, but this claim has not been directly tested. We draw on data from the Mexican Migration Project (MMP) to address these gaps. MMP data are supplemented with government data on federal enforcement obtained from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and measures of state policy. Our findings suggest that higher rates of enforcement and the establishment of negative policy environments do not encourage undocumented immigrants to leave the United States at a higher rate than their documented counterparts do. Rather, high enforcement contexts exaggerate the differences between documented and undocumented migrant behavior, with undocumented migrants staying longer. Liberal state policies have no discernible effect.

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How Do E-Verify Mandates Affect Unauthorized Immigrant Workers?

Pia Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny
Federal Reserve Working Paper, February 2014

Abstract:
A number of states have adopted laws that require employers to use the federal government's E-Verify program to check workers' eligibility to work legally in the United States. Using data from the Current Population Survey, this study examines whether such laws affect labor market outcomes among Mexican immigrants who are likely to be unauthorized. We find evidence that E-Verify mandates reduce average hourly earnings among likely unauthorized male Mexican immigrants while increasing labor force participation and employment among likely unauthorized female Mexican immigrants. In contrast, the mandates appear to lead to better labor market outcomes among workers likely to compete with unauthorized immigrants. Employment and earnings rise among male Mexican immigrants who are naturalized citizens in states that adopt E-Verify mandates, and earnings rise among U.S.-born Hispanic men.

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Employment Verification Mandates and the Labor Market Outcomes of Likely Unauthorized and Native Workers

Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Cynthia Bansak
Contemporary Economic Policy, forthcoming

Abstract:
As recent efforts to reform immigration policy at the federal level have failed, states have started to take immigration matters into their own hands and researchers have been paying closer attention to state dynamics surrounding immigration policy. Yet, to this date, there is not a clear understanding of the consequences of enforcing E-Verify on likely unauthorized immigrants or on natives across the United States. This study aims to fill in that gap by analyzing the impact that the enactment of various types of E-Verify mandates may have on the employment and wages of these groups. We find that the enactment of employment verification mandates reduces the employment likelihood of likely unauthorized workers. Additionally, it raises the hourly wages of likely unauthorized women. None of these impacts are observed among a similarly skilled sample of naturalized Hispanic immigrants. Finally, the enactment of E-Verify mandates appears to raise the employment likelihood of alike non-Hispanic natives, while raising the hourly wage of native-born male employees, alluding to the potential substitutability of unauthorized immigrants and non-Hispanic natives.

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A Global View of Cross-Border Migration

Julian di Giovanni, Andrei Levchenko & Francesc Ortega
NBER Working Paper, March 2014

Abstract:
This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of observed levels of migration using a quantitative multi-sector model of the world economy calibrated to aggregate and firm-level data. Our framework features cross-country labor productivity differences, international trade, remittances, and a heterogeneous workforce. We compare welfare under the observed levels of migration to a no-migration counterfactual. In the long run, natives in countries that received a lot of migration – such as Canada or Australia – are better off due to greater product variety available in consumption and as intermediate inputs. In the short run the impact of migration on average welfare in these countries is close to zero, while the skilled and unskilled natives tend to experience welfare changes of opposite signs. The remaining natives in countries with large emigration flows – such as Jamaica or El Salvador – are also better off due to migration, but for a different reason: remittances. The welfare impact of observed levels of migration is substantial, at about 5 to 10% for the main receiving countries and about 10% in countries with large incoming remittances. Our results are robust to accounting for imperfect transferability of skills, selection into migration, and imperfect substitution between natives and immigrants.

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Investigating Whether and When English Learners Are Reclassified Into Mainstream Classrooms in the United States: A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

Rachel Slama
American Educational Research Journal, April 2014, Pages 220-252

Abstract:
Using eight waves of longitudinal data on a statewide kindergarten cohort of English learners (ELs), I examined ELs’ tenure in language-learning programs and their academic performance following reclassification as fluent English proficient. I employed discrete-time survival analysis to estimate the average time to and grade of reclassification with and without controlling for socioeconomic status and home language. The average EL exited 3 years after school entry or in second grade; however, the odds that a non-Spanish-speaking EL was reclassified were nearly twice that of their Spanish-speaking EL classmates after controlling for income. Despite reclassification in the early elementary grades, large percentages of the kindergarten cohort experienced later academic difficulties and 22% of the sample was retained in grade.

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Estimating Labor Trafficking among Unauthorized Migrant Workers in San Diego

Sheldon Zhang et al.
ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, May 2014, Pages 65-86

Abstract:
Research on labor trafficking faces many methodological challenges, which make it difficult to provide reliable estimates of the problem. In this research, we applied respondent-driven sampling and unique access to migrant communities in San Diego County, California, to estimate the extent of trafficking violations in one of America’s largest Spanish-speaking immigrant destinations. We found that 30 percent of undocumented migrant laborers were victims of labor trafficking, 55 percent were victims of other labor abuses, and about half of these victimization experiences occurred within the past 12 months. The rate of trafficking violations varied markedly across business sectors that typically hire unauthorized migrant workers. Construction and janitorial services had the most reported trafficking violations and labor abuses. Findings in this study also suggest that the illegal status in the country is likely the most significant factor contributing to vulnerability to trafficking violations.

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The Employment Effects of Immigration: Evidence from the Mass Arrival of German Expellees in Postwar Germany

Sebastian Braun & Toman Omar Mahmoud
Journal of Economic History, March 2014, Pages 69-108

Abstract:
This article studies the employment effects of one of the largest forced population movements in history, the influx of millions of German expellees to West Germany after World War II. This episode of forced mass migration provides a unique setting to study the causal effects of immigration. Expellees were not selected on the basis of skills or labor market prospects and, as ethnic Germans, were close substitutes to native West Germans. Expellee inflows substantially reduced native employment. The displacement effect was, however, highly nonlinear and limited to labor market segments with very high inflow rates.

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German-Jewish Emigres and U.S. Invention

Petra Moser, Alessandra Voena & Fabian Waldinger
NBER Working Paper, March 2014

Abstract:
Historical accounts suggest that Jewish émigrés from Nazi Germany revolutionized U.S. science. To analyze the émigrés’ effects on chemical innovation in the U.S. we compare changes in patenting by U.S. inventors in research fields of émigrés with fields of other German chemists. Patenting by U.S. inventors increased by 31 percent in émigré fields. Regressions that instrument for émigré fields with pre-1933 fields of dismissed German chemists confirm a substantial increase in U.S. invention. Inventor-level data indicate that émigrés encouraged innovation by attracting new researchers to their fields, rather than by increasing the productivity of incumbent inventors.

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My Child Will Be a Citizen: Intergenerational Motives for Naturalization

Alex Street
World Politics, April 2014, Pages 264-292

Abstract:
A reform of German citizenship law in 2000 was expected to greatly increase the number of foreign residents becoming German citizens. In fact, the naturalization rate fell and has remained low ever since. This outcome cannot be explained either by existing research on citizenship laws or by scholarship on individual incentives to naturalize. Instead, this article argues that the family context shapes decision making about citizenship, with distinctive behavioral implications. Parents have an incentive to naturalize and thereby extend their new citizenship status to their children. The introduction of a right to citizenship for many children born in Germany to immigrant parents removed this incentive for the parents to naturalize. The author tests the predictions of this argument against both qualitative and quantitative evidence. The article concludes with a discussion of other domains in which it may be possible to gain analytic leverage by studying political decisions in the family context.

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Beyond English Proficiency: Rethinking Immigrant Integration

Ilana Redstone Akresh, Douglas Massey & Reanne Frank
Social Science Research, May 2014, Pages 200–210

Abstract:
We develop and test a conceptual model of English language acquisition and the strength of the latter in predicting social and cultural assimilation. We present evidence that the path to English proficiency begins with exposure to English in the home country and on prior U.S. trips. English proficiency, then, has direct links to the intermediate migration outcomes of occupational status in the U.S., the amount of time in the U.S. since the most recent trip, and the co-ethnic residential context in the U.S. In turn, pre-migration characteristics and the intermediate characteristics work in tandem with English proficiency to determine social assimilation in the U.S., while cultural assimilation is primarily determined by pre-migration habits. A shift in focus to English use is desirable in studies of immigrant integration.

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Subsidizing Migration? Mexican Agricultural Policies and Migration to the United States

Jeronimo Cortina
Policy Studies Journal, February 2014, Pages 101–121

Abstract:
Migration theories often ignore the role that states play in stimulating migration through public assistance policies. Using the case of Mexico, this article explores the role of the state as a migrant-producing actor by examining the relationship between migration and social assistance policies in the form of monetary cash transfers. It argues that direct, unconditional cash transfers, like those provided by agricultural programs such as Procampo, rather than providing the incentives needed to retain individuals in their home country, may instead be providing the resources needed to migrate, particularly if the amount of the transfer is insufficient to spur investment. Instead of discouraging migration by enhancing economic opportunities and reducing poverty, such policies can actually make it easier and more appealing for its beneficiaries to migrate.

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Discrimination against students with foreign backgrounds: Evidence from grading in Swedish public high schools

Bjorn Tyrefors Hinnerich, Erik Höglin & Magnus Johannesson
Education Economics, forthcoming

Abstract:
We rigorously test for discrimination against students with foreign backgrounds in high school grading in Sweden. We analyse a random sample of national tests in the Swedish language graded both non-blindly by the student's own teacher and blindly without any identifying information. The increase in the test score due to non-blind grading is significantly higher for students with a Swedish background. This discrimination effect is sizeable, about 10% of the mean or 20% of the standard deviation of the blind test score.

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Gender inequality and emigration: Push factor or selection process?

Thierry Baudassé & Rémi Bazillier
International Economics, forthcoming

Abstract:
Our objective in this research is to provide empirical evidence relating to the linkages between gender equality and international emigration. Two theoretical hypotheses can be made for the purpose of analyzing such linkages. The first is that gender inequality in origin countries could be a push factor for women. The second one is that gender inequality may create a “gender bias” in the selection of migrants within a household or a community. An improvement of gender equality would then increase female migration. We build several original indices of gender equality using principal component analysis. Our empirical results show that the push factor hypothesis is clearly rejected. All else held constant, improving gender equality in the labour market is positively correlated with the migration of women, especially of the high-skilled. We observe the opposite effect for low-skilled men. This result is robust to several specifications and to various measurements of gender equality.

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The Effect of Minority/Majority Origins on Immigrants' Integration

Elyakim Kislev
Social Forces, forthcoming

Abstract:
This paper develops an inexplicably understudied variable with far-reaching implications for immigrants' experience: whether an immigrant was a member of a minority group in his or her country of origin. I investigate three groups of Israeli-born immigrants in the United States: Israeli Palestinians, ultra-Orthodox Jews, and the Jewish majority. Using the US censuses and American Community Surveys, I show that each group possesses different socioeconomic and demographic characteristics as well as different cultural and economic trajectories. Ultra-Orthodox Jews display processes of separation; the Jewish majority displays processes of integration; and Israeli Palestinians display processes of accelerated integration. In addition, analysis of these three groups' background and self-selection mechanisms, utilizing data from the Israeli Social Survey, provides a better understanding of these profound differences.

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Undocumented Migration and the Residential Segregation of Mexicans in New Destinations

Matthew Hall & Jonathan Stringfield
Social Science Research, forthcoming

Abstract:
This study uses data from the 2000 Census and 2005-2009 American Community Survey to examine the impact of undocumented Mexican migration to new destinations on residential segregation between Mexican immigrants and native-born whites and native-born blacks. We find that Mexican-white and Mexican-black segregation is higher in new Mexican gateways than in established areas and that, for Mexican-immigrant segregation from whites, this heightened level of residential segregation in new destinations can be explained by the high presence of unauthorized Mexican immigrants living there which tends to bolster segregation between the two groups. By contrast, Mexican-immigrant segregation from native-born blacks tends to be lower in areas with larger undocumented populations, a pattern that is especially true in new destinations. Neither of these opposing effects of legal status on Mexican-immigrant segregation can be explained by compositional differences in assimilation (English ability and earnings) between documented and undocumented immigrants nor by structural variation in metropolitan areas, suggesting a unique association between legal status and segregation.

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The Ideological and Electoral Determinants of Laws Targeting Undocumented Migrants in the U.S. States

Joshua Zingher
State Politics & Policy Quarterly, March 2014, Pages 90-117

Abstract:
State legislatures have been extremely active in passing legislation relating to all facets of immigration policy over the last several years. In this article, I develop a framework that explains how party ideology, party control of the legislature, and electoral conditions affect the likelihood that a state legislature will adopt policies that increase immigration enforcement. I test my arguments using state immigration policy adoption data that span from 2005 to 2011. I find that conservative Republican state parties are more likely to pass legislation enhancing immigration enforcement — on the condition that the Republican Party controls the state’s legislative institutions. However, the willingness of Republican-controlled legislatures to pass immigration reform is often tempered by electoral concerns. Republican-controlled legislatures in states where Latinos make up a large proportion of the electorate are significantly less likely to adopt new legislation that targets undocumented migrants. I argue that Republican support for increasing sanctions on undocumented migrants is eroded by the potential for an electoral backlash from Latino voters. Democratic-controlled legislatures are unlikely to pass legislation under any conditions. Ultimately, the observed pattern of policy adoption is the product of the trade-off between the state parties’ ideologically driven policy goals and the electoral consequences associated with actually implementing immigration policies.

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The “Nature” of American Immigration Restrictionism

John Hultgren
New Political Science, Winter 2014, Pages 52-75

Abstract:
How do commitments to nature factor into the American immigration restrictionist movement? This question initially appears odd; in contemporary American politics, environmentalism is generally assumed to be a value of the political left, and restrictionism of the right. Through an in-depth analysis of the American “environmental restrictionist” logic, this article suggests that the reality is more complicated. First, the historical trajectory of the relationship between nature and restrictionism is outlined, demonstrating that commitments to particular conceptions of nature have long intersected with American restrictionism. Second, textual analysis, semi-structured interviews, and content analysis are employed in analyzing how contemporary activists making the environmental argument against immigration conceptualize nature and relate it to foundational ideals of political community, political economy, and governance. Three discourses of environmental restrictionism are identified, and the role that nature plays in each is detailed. The article concludes by reflecting on the resonance of these “natures” with mainstream American greens, and offering several prescriptions for environmentalists concerned with inclusion and social justice.


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