Dumped
Adam Isen, Maya Rossin-Slater & Reed Walker
NBER Working Paper, January 2014
Abstract:
This paper examines the long-term impacts of in-utero and early childhood exposure to ambient air pollution on adult labor market outcomes. We take advantage of a new administrative data set that is uniquely suited for addressing this question because it combines information on individuals' quarterly earnings together with their counties and dates of birth. We use the sharp changes in ambient air pollution concentrations driven by the implementation of the 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments as a source of identifying variation, and we compare cohorts born in counties that experienced large changes in total suspended particulate (TSP) exposure to cohorts born in counties that had minimal or no changes. We find a significant relationship between TSP exposure in the year of birth and adult labor market outcomes. A 10 unit decrease in TSP in the year of birth is associated with a 1 percent increase in annual earnings for workers aged 29-31. Most, but not all, of this effect is driven by an increase in labor force participation. In present value, the gains from being born into a county affected by the 1970 Clean Air Act amount to about $4,300 in lifetime income for the 1.5 million individuals born into these counties each year.
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Free to choose: Promoting conservation by relaxing outdoor watering restrictions
A. Castledine et al.
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, forthcoming
Abstract:
Many water utilities use outdoor watering restrictions based on assigned weekly watering days to promote conservation and delay costly capacity expansions. We find that such policies can lead to unintended consequences - customers who adhere to the prescribed schedule use more water than those following a more flexible irrigation pattern. For our application to residential watering in a high-desert environment, this “rigidity penalty” is robust to an exogenous policy change that allowed an additional watering day per week. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on leakage effects of regulatory policies. In our case inefficiencies arise as policies limit the extent to which agents can temporally re-allocate actions.
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Cars on crutches: How much abatement do smog check repairs actually provide?
Pierre Mérel et al.
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
Not as much abatement as has been presumed. Smog check programs aim to curb tailpipe emissions from in-use vehicles by requiring repairs whenever emissions, measured at regular time intervals, exceed a certain threshold. Using data from California, we estimate that on average 41 percent of the initial emissions abatement from repairs is lost by the time of the subsequent inspection, normally two years later. Our estimates imply that the cost per pound of pollution avoided is an order of magnitude greater for smog check repairs than alternative policies such as new-vehicle standards or emissions trading among industrial point sources.
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Coal Mining and the Resource Curse in the Eastern United States
Stratford Douglas & Anne Walker
West Virginia University Working Paper, December 2013
Abstract:
We measure the effect of resource sector dependence on long run income growth using the natural experiment of variation in coal endowments in a set of 409 relatively U.S. counties selected for homogeneity. Using a panel data set that extends over two separate boom and bust cycles (1970-2010), we find that coal dependence significantly reduces growth of per capita county income over the long run. These estimates indicate that a one standard deviation increase in the measure of resource intensity results in an estimated 0.7 percentage point drop in average annual growth rates. We also measure the extent to which the Appalachian coal resource curse operates by providing disincentives to education, and find that the education channel explains only about 15% to 30% of the curse.
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China’s international trade and air pollution in the United States
Jintai Lin et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 4 February 2014, Pages 1736–1741
Abstract:
China is the world’s largest emitter of anthropogenic air pollutants, and measurable amounts of Chinese pollution are transported via the atmosphere to other countries, including the United States. However, a large fraction of Chinese emissions is due to manufacture of goods for foreign consumption. Here, we analyze the impacts of trade-related Chinese air pollutant emissions on the global atmospheric environment, linking an economic-emission analysis and atmospheric chemical transport modeling. We find that in 2006, 36% of anthropogenic sulfur dioxide, 27% of nitrogen oxides, 22% of carbon monoxide, and 17% of black carbon emitted in China were associated with production of goods for export. For each of these pollutants, about 21% of export-related Chinese emissions were attributed to China-to-US export. Atmospheric modeling shows that transport of the export-related Chinese pollution contributed 3–10% of annual mean surface sulfate concentrations and 0.5–1.5% of ozone over the western United States in 2006. This Chinese pollution also resulted in one extra day or more of noncompliance with the US ozone standard in 2006 over the Los Angeles area and many regions in the eastern United States. On a daily basis, the export-related Chinese pollution contributed, at a maximum, 12–24% of sulfate concentrations over the western United States. As the United States outsourced manufacturing to China, sulfate pollution in 2006 increased in the western United States but decreased in the eastern United States, reflecting the competing effect between enhanced transport of Chinese pollution and reduced US emissions. Our findings are relevant to international efforts to reduce transboundary air pollution.
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Yuan Wang, Renyi Zhang & R. Saravanan
Nature Communications, January 2014
Abstract:
Increasing levels of anthropogenic aerosols in Asia have raised considerable concern regarding its potential impact on the global atmosphere, but the magnitude of the associated climate forcing remains to be quantified. Here, using a novel hierarchical modelling approach and observational analysis, we demonstrate modulated mid-latitude cyclones by Asian pollution over the past three decades. Regional and seasonal simulations using a cloud-resolving model show that Asian pollution invigorates winter cyclones over the northwest Pacific, increasing precipitation by 7% and net cloud radiative forcing by 1.0 W m−2 at the top of the atmosphere and by 1.7 W m−2 at the Earth’s surface. A global climate model incorporating the diabatic heating anomalies from Asian pollution produces a 9% enhanced transient eddy meridional heat flux and reconciles a decadal variation of mid-latitude cyclones derived from the Reanalysis data. Our results unambiguously reveal a large impact of the Asian pollutant outflows on the global general circulation and climate.
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Advertising, Reputation, and Environmental Stewardship: Evidence from the BP Oil Spill
Lint Barrage, Eric Chyn & Justine Hastings
NBER Working Paper, January 2014
Abstract:
This paper explores whether and how environmental stewardship can be provided by private markets through green advertising. We examine the period surrounding the BP oil spill and estimate how BP’s pre-spill investment in “green advertising” affected the spill’s impact on retail prices and demand at BP gasoline stations. We use station-level prices and sales from a large sample of U.S. retail gasoline stations, and market-level advertising expenditures during BP’s 2000-2008 “Beyond Petroleum” advertising campaign. We find evidence consistent with consumer punishment of BP in the months following the spill; overall BP margins declined significantly by 4.2 cents per gallon, and volumes declined by 3.6 percent during the spill. We examine how pre-spill environmental advertising affected the spill’s impact on margins and sales, testing whether expenditures on green reputation act as a commitment to green production or as insurance against environmental damage. We find evidence in support of the latter: pre-spill exposure to BP advertising significantly softened the impact of the spill on BP retail margins, and abated losses to station share from stations switching to alternative gasoline brands.
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Environmental legislative standstill and bureaucratic politics in the USA
Jongkon Lee
Policy Studies, January/February 2014, Pages 40-58
Abstract:
In spite of growing environmental problems in the USA, an environmental legislative standstill has been prevalent in US politics for about 20 years. Several studies on lawmaking have argued that this legislative standstill has been caused by conflicts among elected officials, such as legislators and the president (institutional gridlock). This paper suggests a different view on the environmental legislative standstill in terms of bureaucratic politics. Using a case study on the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regarding hazardous waste disposal and the Superfund, the current study contends that the EPA's collaborative efforts to resolve interest conflict expansion have led to legislative standstill.
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Brice Nichols & Kara Kockelman
Energy Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
The built environment can be used to influence travel demand, but very few studies consider the relative energy savings of such policies in context of a complex urban system. This analysis quantifies the day-to-day and embodied energy consumption of four different neighborhoods in Austin, Texas, to examine how built environment variations influence various sources of urban energy consumption. A microsimulation combines models for petroleum use (from driving) and residential and commercial power and natural gas use with rigorously measured building stock and infrastructure materials quantities (to arrive at embodied energy). Results indicate that the more suburban neighborhoods, with mostly detached single-family homes, consume up to 320% more embodied energy, 150% more operational energy, and about 160% more total life-cycle energy (per capita) than a densely developed neighborhood with mostly low-rise-apartments and duplexes. Across all neighborhoods, operational energy use comprised 83 to 92% of total energy use, and transportation sources (including personal vehicles and transit, plus street, parking structure, and sidewalk infrastructure) made up 44 to 47% of the life-cycle energy demands tallied. Energy elasticity calculations across the neighborhoods suggest that increased population density and reduced residential unit size offer greatest life-cycle energy savings per capita, by reducing both operational demands from driving and home energy use, and from less embodied energy from construction. These results provide measurable metrics for comparing different neighborhood styles and develop a framework to anticipate energy-savings from changes in the built environment versus household energy efficiency.
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Lucija Muehlenbachs, Stefan Staubli & Mark Cohen
Vanderbilt University Working Paper, November 2013
Abstract:
This paper provides new insights into the productivity of teams and the relationship between the inspector and the inspected party by examining data on inspections of offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. We exploit weather patterns that only influence the number of inspectors that are sent to inspect a platform and show that inspector group size matters; an additional inspector results in more severe sanctions being issued. We also exploit the agglomeration of two inspection offices to examine the effect of reducing the familiarity between an inspector and an inspected party; we find that reducing the inspector-offender relationship also results in more severe sanctions being issued. Combined, these findings are consistent with regulatory capture and related concerns about insulating inspectors from undue influence by those they are supposed to monitor. Using these shifts in sanction severity we also estimate the effectiveness of increasing enforcement on the deterrence of incidents, such as oil spills, fires, injuries, or fatalities. We only find weak evidence that increasing sanction severity increases deterrence.
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Coal, Smoke, and Death: Bituminous Coal and American Home Heating
Alan Barreca, Karen Clay & Joel Tarr
NBER Working Paper, February 2014
Abstract:
Air pollution was severe in many urban areas of the United States in the first half of the twentieth century, in part due to the burning of bituminous coal for heat. We estimate the effects of this bituminous coal consumption on mortality rates in the U.S. during the mid 20th century. Coal consumption varied considerably during the 20th century due to coal-labor strikes, wartime oil and gas restrictions, and the expansion of gas pipelines, among other reasons. To mitigate the influence of confounding factors, we use a triple-differences identification strategy that relies on variation in coal consumption at the state-year-season level. It exploits the fact that coal consumption for heating was highest in the winter and uses within-state changes in mortality in non-winter months as an additional control group. Our estimates suggest that reductions in the use of bituminous coal for heating between 1945 and 1960 decreased winter all-age mortality by 1.25 percent and winter infant mortality by 3.27 percent, saving 1,923 all age lives per winter month and 310 infant lives per winter month. Our estimates are likely to be a lower bound, since they primarily capture short-run relationships between coal and mortality.
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Long-term dynamics of household size and their environmental implications
Mason Bradbury, Nils Peterson & Jianguo Liu
Population and Environment, forthcoming
Abstract:
Little is known about the environmental implications of long-term historical trends in household size. This paper presents the first historical assessment of global shifts in average household size based on a variety of datasets covering the period 1600–2000. Findings reveal that developed nations reached a threshold in 1893 when average household size began to drop rapidly from approximately 5.0 to 2.5. A similar threshold was reached in developing nations in 1987. With the notable exceptions of Ireland, and England and Wales in the early 1800s, and India and the Seychelles in the late 1900s, the number of households grew faster than population size in every country and every time period. These findings suggest accommodating housing may continue to pose one of the greatest environmental challenges of the twenty-first century because the impacts of increased housing present a threat to sustainability even when population growth slows. Future research addressing environmental impacts of declining household size could use an adapted IPAT model, I = PHoG: where environmental impact (I) = population × personal goods (P) + households × household goods (HoG).
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Saving Power to Conserve Your Reputation? The Effectiveness of Private versus Public Information
Magali Delmas & Neil Lessem
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
Environmental damage is often an unseen byproduct of other activities. Disclosing environmental impact privately to consumers can reduce the costs and/or increase the moral benefits of conservation behaviors, while publicly disclosing such information can provide an additional motivation for conservation -- cultivating a green reputation. In a unique field experiment in the residence halls at the University of California -- Los Angeles, we test the efficacy of detailed private and public information on electricity conservation. Private information was given through real-time appliance level feedback and social norms over usage, and public information was given through a publicly visible conservation rating. Our analysis is based on 7,120 daily observations about energy use from heating and cooling, lights and plug load for 66 rooms collected over an academic year. Our results suggest that while private information alone was ineffective, public information combined with private information motivated a 20 percent reduction in electricity consumption achieved through lower use of heating and cooling. Public information was particularly effective for above median energy users.
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The Housing Market Impacts of Shale Gas Development
Lucija Muehlenbachs, Elisheba Spiller & Christopher Timmins
NBER Working Paper, January 2014
Abstract:
Using data from Pennsylvania and New York and an array of empirical techniques to control for confounding factors, we recover hedonic estimates of property value impacts from shale gas development that vary with geographic scale, water source, well productivity, and visibility. Results indicate large negative impacts on nearby groundwater-dependent homes, while piped-water-dependent homes exhibit smaller positive impacts, suggesting benefits from lease payments. At a broader geographic scale, we find that new wellbores increase property values, but these effects diminish over time. Undrilled permits cause property values to decrease. Results have implications for the debate over regulation of shale gas development.
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Foreclosures and Invasive Insect Spread: The Case of Asian Citrus Psyllid
Timothy Richards, David Shanafelt & Eli Fenichel
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Human economic activity is considered to be an important factor in exacerbating the speed of invasive species spread, but may also play an important role in preventing it. In this study, we investigate the role of home foreclosure in the spread of Asian Citrus Psyllid (ACP, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama) throughout residential areas of Southern California. We find that foreclosures are indeed a significant factor in explaining ACP spread, even after controlling for other human and environmental effects. Our results suggest that human economic activity may be more important in controlling the spread of invasive species than previously realized, and that the external costs of the foreclosure problem may also be underestimated.
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The Private Rationality of Bottled Water Drinking
Kip Viscusi, Joel Huber & Jason Bell
Vanderbilt University Working Paper, December 2013
Abstract:
This article examines evidence for the private rationality of decisions to choose bottled water using a large, nationally representative sample. Consumers are more likely to believe that bottled water is safer or tastes better if they have had adverse experiences with tap water or live in states with more prevalent violations of EPA water quality standards. Perceptions of superior safety, taste, and convenience of bottled water boost consumption of bottled water. Blacks and Hispanics are more likely to drink bottled water due to their relatively greater exposure to unsafe water and greater risk beliefs. The coherent network of experiences, beliefs, and actions is consistent with rational consumer choice.
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Do Consumers Respond to Marginal or Average Price? Evidence from Nonlinear Electricity Pricing
Koichiro Ito
American Economic Review, February 2014, Pages 537-563
Abstract:
Nonlinear pricing and taxation complicate economic decisions by creating multiple marginal prices for the same good. This paper provides a framework to uncover consumers' perceived price of nonlinear price schedules. I exploit price variation at spatial discontinuities in electricity service areas, where households in the same city experience substantially different nonlinear pricing. Using household-level panel data from administrative records, I find strong evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal or expected marginal price. This suboptimizing behavior makes nonlinear pricing unsuccessful in achieving its policy goal of energy conservation and critically changes the welfare implications of nonlinear pricing.
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Metric and Scale Design as Choice Architecture Tools
Adrian Camilleri & Richard Larrick
Journal of Public Policy & Marketing, forthcoming
Abstract:
Interest is increasing in using behavioral decision insights to design better product labels. A specific policy target is the fuel economy label, which policy makers can use to encourage reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from transport-related fossil-fuel combustion. In two online experiments, the authors examine whether vehicle preferences can be shifted toward more fuel-efficient vehicles by manipulating the metric (consumption of gas vs. cost of gas) and scale (100 miles vs. 15,000 miles vs. 100,000 miles) on which fuel economy information is expressed. They find that preference for fuel-efficient vehicles is highest when fuel economy is expressed in terms of the cost of gas over 100,000 miles, regardless of whether the vehicle pays for its higher price in gas savings. The authors discuss the underlying psychological mechanisms for this finding, including compatibility, anchoring, and familiarity effects, and conclude that policy makers should initiate programs that communicate fuel-efficiency information in terms of costs over an expanded, lifetime scale.
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Global Inequality in Energy Consumption from 1980 to 2010
Scott Lawrence, Qin Liu & Victor Yakovenko
Entropy, December 2013, Pages 5565-5579
Abstract:
We study the global probability distribution of energy consumption per capita around the world using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for 1980–2010. We find that the Lorenz curves have moved up during this time period, and the Gini coefficient, G, has decreased from 0.66 in 1980 to 0.55 in 2010, indicating a decrease in inequality. The global probability distribution of energy consumption per capita in 2010 is close to the exponential distribution with G = 0:5. We attribute this result to the globalization of the world economy, which mixes the world and brings it closer to the state of maximal entropy. We argue that global energy production is a limited resource that is partitioned among the world population. The most probable partition is the one that maximizes entropy, thus resulting in the exponential distribution function. A consequence of the latter is the law of 1/3: the top 1/3 of the world population consumes 2/3 of produced energy. We also find similar results for the global probability distribution of CO2 emissions per capita.
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Transport Mode Selection for Toxic Gases: Rail or Road?
Morteza Bagheri, Manish Verma & Vedat Verter
Risk Analysis, January 2014, Pages 168–186
Abstract:
A significant majority of hazardous materials (hazmat) shipments are moved via the highway and railroad networks, wherein the latter mode is generally preferred for long distances. Although the characteristics of highway transportation make trucks the most dominant surface transportation mode, should it be preferred for hazmat whose accidental release can cause catastrophic consequences? We answer this question by first developing a novel and comprehensive assessment methodology — which incorporates the sequence of events leading to hazmat release from the derailed railcars and the resulting consequence — to measure rail transport risk, and second making use of the proposed assessment methodology to analyze hazmat transport risk resulting from meeting the demand for chlorine and ammonia in six distinct corridors in North America. We demonstrate that rail transport will reduce risk, irrespective of the risk measure and the transport corridor, and that every attempt must be made to use railroads to transport these shipments.