IN 1980 THE well-known environmentalist Paul Ehrlich bet his philosophical adversary, the economist Julian Simon, $1,000 that in a decade five resources of Ehrlich’s choosing would have higher prices. Ehrlich chose copper, chrome, nickel, tin, and tungsten. All five resources declined in price and Ehrlich lost the highly publicized bet, recently chronicled in the New York Times Magazine. Some concluded that Ehrlich simply chose poorly.