While Evils are Sufferable
Trends in Extreme Distress in the United States, 1993–2019
David Blanchflower & Andrew Oswald
American Journal of Public Health, October 2020, Pages 1538-1544
Methods: Using data on 8.1 million randomly sampled US citizens, we created a new proxy measure for exceptional distress (the percentage who reported major mental and emotional problems in all 30 of the last 30 days). We examined time trends for different groups and predictors of distress.
Results: The proportion of the US population in extreme distress rose from 3.6% in 1993 to 6.4% in 2019. Among low-education midlife White persons, the percentage more than doubled, from 4.8% to 11.5%. Regression analysis revealed that (1) at the personal level, the strongest statistical predictor of extreme distress was “I am unable to work,” and (2) at the state level, a decline in the share of manufacturing jobs was a predictor of greater distress.
Decoding the mystery of American pain reveals a warning for the future
Anne Case, Angus Deaton & Arthur Stone
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
There is an expectation that, on average, pain will increase with age, through accumulated injury, physical wear and tear, and an increasing burden of disease. Consistent with that expectation, pain rises with age into old age in other wealthy countries. However, in America today, the elderly report less pain than those in midlife. This is the mystery of American pain. Using multiple datasets and definitions of pain, we show today’s midlife Americans have had more pain throughout adulthood than did today’s elderly. Disaggregating the cross-section of ages by year of birth and completion of a bachelor’s degree, we find, for those with less education, that each successive birth cohort has a higher prevalence of pain at each age — a result not found for those with a bachelor’s degree. Thus, the gap in pain between the more and less educated has widened in each successive birth cohort. The increase seen across birth cohorts cannot be explained by changes in occupation or levels of obesity for the less educated, but fits a more general pattern seen in the ongoing erosion of working-class life for those born after 1950. If these patterns continue, pain prevalence will continue to increase for all adults; importantly, tomorrow’s elderly will be sicker than today’s elderly, with potentially serious implications for healthcare.
The spread of social distancing
Jonathan Cook, Noah Newberger & Sami Smalling
Economics Letters, forthcoming
Abstract:
We find that social distancing is affected by the policies set in neighboring counties, even after controlling for confirmed COVID cases and weather. A stay-at-home order in a neighboring county reduces social distancing by more than half as much as implementing an order in that county. This implies that, to increase social distancing in hard-hit counties, stay-at-home orders need to be implemented in a regionally or federally coordinated response. We also find that estimates of the efficacy of stay-at-home orders that do not control for policies in neighboring counties overstate the effect of these orders by about 50%.
God is in the Rain: The Impact of Rainfall-Induced Early Social Distancing on COVID-19 Outbreaks
Rolly Kapoor et al.
University of California Working Paper, May 2020
Abstract:
We test whether earlier social distancing affects the progression of a local COVID-19 outbreak. We exploit county-level rainfall on the last weekend before statewide lockdown. After controlling for state fixed-effects, temperature, and historical rainfall, current rainfall is a plausibly exogenous instrument for social distancing. Early distancing causes a reduction in cases and deaths that persists for weeks. The effect is driven by a reduction in the chance of a very large outbreak. The result suggests early distancing may have sizable returns, and that random events early in an outbreak can have persistent effects on its course.
Can Labor Market Policies Reduce Deaths of Despair?
William Dow et al.
Journal of Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do minimum wages and the EITC mitigate rising “deaths of despair?” We leverage state variation in these policies over time to estimate event study and difference-in-differences models of deaths due to drug overdose, suicide, and alcohol-related causes. Our causal models find no significant effects on drug or alcohol-related mortality, but do find significant reductions in non-drug suicides. A 10 percent minimum wage increase reduces non-drug suicides among low-educated adults by 2.7 percent, the comparable EITC figure is 3.0 percent. Placebo tests and event-study models support our causal research design. Increasing both policies by 10 percent would likely prevent a combined total of more than 700 suicides each year.
In utero exposure to threat of evictions and preterm birth: Evidence from the United States
Aayush Khadka et al.
Health Services Research, October 2020, Pages 823-832
Data Sources: Complete birth records were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics (2009‐2016). Threatened evictions were measured at the county level using eviction case filing data obtained from The Eviction Lab (2008‐2016). Additional economic and demographic data were obtained from the United States Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Study Design: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis using 7.3 million births from 1,633 counties. We defined threatened eviction exposures as the z‐score of average case filings over the pregnancy and by trimester. Our primary outcome was an indicator for preterm birth (born < 37 completed weeks of gestation). Secondary outcomes included a continuous measure for gestational length, a continuous measure for birth weight, and an indicator for low birth weight (born < 2500 g). We estimated within‐county associations controlling for individual‐ and time‐varying county‐level characteristics, state‐of‐residence‐year‐and‐month‐of‐conception fixed effects, and a county‐specific time trend.
Data Collection/Extraction: We merged birth records with threatened eviction data at the county‐month‐year level using mother's county of residence at delivery and month‐year of conception. We supplemented these data with information on county‐level annual 18‐and‐over population, annual poverty rate, and monthly unemployment rate.
Principal Findings: Increased levels of eviction case filings over a pregnancy were associated with an increased risk of prematurity and low birth weight. These associations appeared to be sensitive to exposure in the second and third trimesters. Associations with secondary outcomes and within various population subgroups were, in general, imprecisely estimated.
The rise of COVID-19 cases is associated with support for world leaders
Kai Chi Yam et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
COVID-19 has emerged as one of the deadliest and most disruptive events in recent human history. Drawing from political science and psychological theories, we examine the effects of daily confirmed cases in a country on citizens’ support for the political leader through the first 120 d of 2020. Using three unique datasets which comprise daily approval ratings of head of government (n = 1,411,200) across 11 world leaders (Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and weekly approval ratings of governors across the 50 states in the United States (n = 912,048), we find a strong and significant positive association between new daily confirmed and total confirmed COVID-19 cases in the country and support for the heads of government. These analyses show that political leaders received a boost in approval in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, these findings suggest that the previously documented “rally ‘round the flag” effect applies beyond just intergroup conflict.
The Impact of a Six‐Year Climate Anomaly on the “Spanish Flu” Pandemic and WWI
Alexander More et al.
GeoHealth, September 2020
Abstract:
The H1N1 “Spanish influenza” pandemic of 1918–1919 caused the highest known number of deaths recorded for a single pandemic in human history. Several theories have been offered to explain the virulence and spread of the disease, but the environmental context remains underexamined. In this study, we present a new environmental record from a European, Alpine ice core, showing a significant climate anomaly that affected the continent from 1914 to 1919. Incessant torrential rain and declining temperatures increased casualties in the battlefields of World War I (WWI), setting the stage for the spread of the pandemic at the end of the conflict. Multiple independent records of temperature, precipitation, and mortality corroborate these findings.
Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation
Ashish Goyal et al.
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center Working Paper, September 2020
Abstract:
Masks are a vital tool for limiting SARS-CoV-2 spread in the population. Here we utilize a mathematical model to assess the impact of masking on transmission within individual transmission pairs and at the population level. Our model quantitatively links mask efficacy to reductions in viral load and subsequent transmission risk. Our results reinforce that the use of masks by both a potential transmitter and exposed person substantially reduces the probability of successful transmission, even if masks only lower exposure viral load by ~50%. Slight increases in masking relative to current levels would reduce the reproductive number substantially below 1, particularly if implemented comprehensively in potential super-spreader environments. Our model predicts that moderately efficacious masks that reduce transmission risk by 50% will lower exposure viral load 10-fold among people who do get infected, potentially limiting infection severity. Because peak viral load tends to occur pre-symptomatically, we also identify that antiviral therapy targeting symptomatic individuals is unlikely to impact transmission risk. Instead, antiviral therapy is only effective for this indication as post-exposure prophylaxis, specifically if given to ~50% of newly infected people within 3 days of an exposure. These results highlight the primacy of masking relative to other biomedical interventions under consideration for limiting the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic prior to widespread implementation of a vaccine.
Benford’s Law and COVID-19 reporting
Christoffer Koch & Ken Okamura
Economics Letters, forthcoming
Abstract:
Trust in the reported data of contagious diseases in real time is important for policy makers. Media and politicians have cast doubt on Chinese reported data on COVID-19 cases. We find Chinese confirmed infections match the distribution expected in Benford’s Law and are similar to that seen in the U.S. and Italy. We identify a more likely candidate for problems in the policy making process: Poor multilateral data sharing on testing and sampling.
Unemployment Disrupts Sleep
David Blanchflower & Alex Bryson
NBER Working Paper, September 2020
Abstract:
Although there is a substantial literature indicating that unemployment and joblessness have profound adverse impacts on individuals’ health and wellbeing, there is relatively little evidence of their impact on sleep. Using data for over 3.5 million individuals in the United States over the period 2006-2019 from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey series we show sleep disruption patterns that vary by labor market status. We look at sleep measured by hours in a day and days in a month and whether sleep is disturbed over a fortnight, as indicated by problems falling or staying asleep or staying asleep too much. We find the short-term unemployed suffer more short and long sleep than the employed and are more likely to suffer from disturbed sleep. These problems are greater still for the long-term unemployed and for the jobless who say they are unable to work.
Male-to-Female Presumed Transmission of Toxoplasmosis Between Sexual Partners
Jana Hlaváčová et al.
American Journal of Epidemiology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Toxoplasmosis is one of the most widespread human parasitoses in developed countries. Sexual transmission has been confirmed in several animal species, and indirect evidence suggests that it may occur in humans. We compared the seropositivity to Toxoplasma gondii in couples who visited the Center for Assisted Reproduction in Prague from June 2016 to June 2018 and analyzed various risk factors including the serological status of sexual partner. By comparing the risk factors in men and women, we tested the hypothesis of man-to-woman sexual transmission of toxoplasmosis. The prevalence of toxoplasmosis in women with infected male partners (25.6%; n = 156) was higher than in women with uninfected male partners (18.2%; n = 477; P = 0.045). Therefore, partner’s seropositivity seems to be a risk factor for infection in women (n = 593; prevalence ratio = 1.418; P = 0.045) but not in men (n = 573; prevalence ratio = 1.058; P = 0.816). Our results support the hypothesis of the sexual transmission of Toxoplasma from men to women. The risk may seem relatively low, but transmission can occur during unprotected sexual intercourse, which may be at the time of conception. Due to the risk of congenital toxoplasmosis, a lower risk of infection than that observed in our study can represent a serious health problem.