Weak on crime
Is There Evidence of Racial Disparity in Police Use of Deadly Force? Analyses of Officer-Involved Fatal Shootings in 2015–2016
Joseph Cesario, David Johnson & William Terrill
Social Psychological and Personality Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Is there evidence of a Black–White disparity in death by police gunfire in the United States? This is commonly answered by comparing the odds of being fatally shot for Blacks and Whites, with odds benchmarked against each group’s population proportion. However, adjusting for population values has questionable assumptions given the context of deadly force decisions. We benchmark 2 years of fatal shooting data on 16 crime rate estimates. When adjusting for crime, we find no systematic evidence of anti-Black disparities in fatal shootings, fatal shootings of unarmed citizens, or fatal shootings involving misidentification of harmless objects. Multiverse analyses showed only one significant anti-Black disparity of 144 possible tests. Exposure to police given crime rate differences likely accounts for the higher per capita rate of fatal police shootings for Blacks, at least when analyzing all shootings. For unarmed shootings or misidentification shootings, data are too uncertain to be conclusive.
Police killings and their spillover effects on the mental health of black Americans: A population-based, quasi-experimental study
Jacob Bor et al.
Lancet, forthcoming
Methods: In this population-based, quasi-experimental study, we combined novel data on police killings with individual-level data from the nationally representative 2013–15 US Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) to estimate the causal impact of police killings of unarmed black Americans on self-reported mental health of other black American adults in the US general population. The primary exposure was the number of police killings of unarmed black Americans occurring in the 3 months prior to the BRFSS interview within the same state. The primary outcome was the number of days in the previous month in which the respondent's mental health was reported as “not good”. We estimated difference-in-differences regression models — adjusting for state-month, month-year, and interview-day fixed effects, as well as age, sex, and educational attainment. We additionally assessed the timing of effects, the specificity of the effects to black Americans, and the robustness of our findings.
Findings: 38,993 (weighted sample share 49%) of 103,710 black American respondents were exposed to one or more police killings of unarmed black Americans in their state of residence in the 3 months prior to the survey. Each additional police killing of an unarmed black American was associated with 0.14 additional poor mental health days (95% CI 0.07–0.22; p=0.00047) among black American respondents. The largest effects on mental health occurred in the 1–2 months after exposure, with no significant effects estimated for respondents interviewed before police killings (falsification test). Mental health impacts were not observed among white respondents and resulted only from police killings of unarmed black Americans (not unarmed white Americans or armed black Americans).
“The Public Doesn’t Understand”: The Self-reinforcing Interplay of Image Discrepancies and Political Ideologies in Law Enforcement
Shefali Patil
Administrative Science Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Drawing on information processing theory, I revisit prior assumptions that not being understood raises challenges for employees, examining how political ideologies powerfully affect how employees who serve the public react to a perceived lack of understanding of the difficulties of their jobs. Using independent expert ratings of 794 body camera videos of 164 police officers across two agencies, I show that a lack of perceived public understanding decreases task performance for liberal-leaning officers but not for conservative-leaning officers. Because liberal-leaning officers seek to form more communal relationships with the public, a perceived lack of public understanding violates their sense of social order, but it merely reaffirms conservative-leaning officers’ beliefs in maintaining an authoritarian distance given the responsibilities and duties they shoulder. I replicate these results using supervisors’ ratings of 82 officers across four agencies and then demonstrate in a time-lagged survey of 184 officers in a single agency that those with stronger conservative beliefs are more likely to believe the public fails to appreciate the difficulties of their jobs. These studies highlight the importance of accounting for people’s beliefs in whether image conflicts should and do arise — and provide insights into the self-reinforcing forces that sustain divides between employees and those they serve.
The Effect of Concealed Handgun Carry Deregulation in Arizona on Crime in Tucson
Michael Smith & Matthew Petrocelli
Criminal Justice Policy Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
In 2010, the Arizona legislature effectively deregulated concealed handgun carry in the state by passing Senate Bill (SB) 1108, which eliminated licensing and training requirements for concealed carry. Although researchers have extensively examined the impact of state adoption of concealed carry laws, almost nothing is known about the effects of deregulating concealed carry altogether. This study contributes to the more guns, less crime debate by examining the impact of Arizona’s decision to deregulate concealed carry. Using a multiple time-series research design with an experimental (Tucson) and control city (El Paso), the present study examines the impact of deregulation on handgun-related violent crime and gun larcenies in Arizona’s second largest city — Tucson. We find that the passage of SB 1108 had no impact on handgun-related offenses that could be expected to change following deregulation. The implications of these findings for policy making and future research are discussed.
Impact of the Stand Your Ground law on gun deaths: Evidence of a rural urban dichotomy
Abdul Munasib, Genti Kostandini & Jeffrey Jordan
European Journal of Law and Economics, June 2018, Pages 527–554
Abstract:
We explore the impact of the Stand Your Ground (SYG) law on gun deaths by degree of urbanization. Unlike firearm homicides the definition of firearm deaths does not depend on the broadening of the self-defense provision that the SYG law represents. Using a difference-in-difference design, we find that the SYG law had no impact on gun deaths at the state level. However, once the U.S. states are disaggregated into portions by degree of urbanization — central city, suburb, small urban area and rural area — we find that the law increased gun deaths in the central cities and the suburbs, and had no impact in smaller urban areas and rural areas. These findings are consistent with the fact that there is a great divide between urban and rural areas in terms of ownership and usage of guns, attitudes towards guns, and the implications thereof. The finding of increased violence in the suburbs is of particular interest in the historical backdrop whereby the growth of the suburbs, to a large extent, may have been motivated by a desire to escape crime and violence.
An examination of the effects of 2014 concealed weapons law in Illinois on property crimes in Chicago
Srikant Devaraj & Pankaj Patel
Applied Economics Letters, Fall 2018, Pages 1125-1129
Abstract:
The purpose of the present study is to determine the effects of ‘may issue’ Concealed Carry Weapons (CCW) law implemented in early 2014 in Chicago. Based on the daily community-level crime data from January 2006 to December 2015, using zero-inflated negative binomial difference-in-difference specification with Philadelphia as the control group, the property crimes in Chicago declined after the implementation of ‘may issue’ CCW law. The findings are robust to alternate treatment windows and to a placebo test using time windows before implementation of the law.
Police Militarization and the Use of Lethal Force
Edward Lawson
Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
In recent years, the killing of suspects by police and the “militarization” of police have drawn considerable public attention, but there is little analysis of a relationship between the two. In this article, I investigate the possibility that such militarization may lead to an increase in suspect deaths using data on police receipt of surplus military equipment to measure militarization and a newly created database on suspect deaths in all fifty states quarterly from the fourth quarter of 2014 through the fourth quarter of 2016. The data consist of more than eleven thousand agency-quarter observations. I find a positive and significant association between militarization and the number of suspects killed, controlling for several other possible explanations.
Police Body-Worn Cameras: Effects on Officers’ Burnout and Perceived Organizational Support
Ian Adams & Sharon Mastracci
Police Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Police departments in the United States are rapidly adopting body-worn cameras (BWCs). To date, no study has investigated the effects of BWCs on police officers themselves, despite evidence suggesting negative effects of electronic performance monitoring on employee well-being. Police officers already experience higher levels of burnout than other professions. We hypothesize that the intense surveillance of BWCs will manifest in how police officers perceive the organizational support of their departments and will increase burnout. We test these hypotheses using data from patrol officers (n = 271) and structural equation modeling. We find BWCs increase police officer burnout, and this effect is statistically different from zero. We also find that BWCs decrease officers’ perceived organizational support, which mediates the relationship between BWCs and burnout. Greater perceived organizational support can blunt the negative effects of BWCs. Our study is the first to situate effects on officers at the center of BWC literature.
Neighborhood Violence, Peer Effects, and Academic Achievement in Chicago
Julia Burdick-Will
Sociology of Education, July 2018, Pages 205-223
Abstract:
Research shows that exposure to local neighborhood violence is associated with students’ behavior and engagement in the classroom. Given the social nature of schooling, these symptoms not only affect individual students but have the potential to spill over and influence their classmates’ learning, as well. In this study, I use detailed administrative data from five complete cohorts of students in the Chicago Public Schools (2002 to 2010), crime data from the Chicago Police Department, and school-level surveys conducted by the University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research to assess the strength of this peer effect. The estimated negative relationship between peer exposure to neighborhood violent crime and individual achievement is substantial and remains after adjusting for other peer characteristics and student fixed effects. Surveys suggest these results are related to trust, discipline, and safety concerns in cohorts with larger proportions of students from violent neighborhoods.
Imprisonment and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
David Harding et al.
American Journal of Sociology, July 2018, Pages 49-110
Abstract:
Because of racially disproportionate imprisonment rates, the literature on mass incarceration has focused on the labor market consequence of imprisonment and the implications of those effects for racial inequality. Yet, the effects of imprisonment itself, as distinct from conviction, are not well understood. The authors leverage a natural experiment based on the random assignment of judges to felony cases in Michigan to examine the causal effect of being sentenced to prison as compared to probation, stratifying by race and work history. The most widespread effect of imprisonment on employment occurs through incapacitation in prison, both for the initial prison sentence and through the heightened risk of subsequent imprisonment. Negative postrelease effects of imprisonment on employment, employment stability, and employment outside the secondary labor market are concentrated among whites with a presentence work history. Postrelease effects of imprisonment on employment among those with no work history are positive but fade over time.
Checking the Math: Do Restrictive Housing and Mental Health Need Add Up to Psychological Deterioration?
Glenn Walters
Criminal Justice and Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
The current study sought to determine whether restrictive housing leads to psychological deterioration. A growth mixture modeling analysis of clinician ratings on the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale identified two classes of participants in a sample of 266 state prison inmates: A large group of prisoners whose psychological status gradually improved over the course of a year and a small group of inmates whose psychological status deteriorated over the course of a year. Inmates with a history of mental health need were significantly more likely to experience severe psychological reactions to administrative segregation (AS) than inmates with no history of mental health need, although inmates with a history of mental health need were just as likely to experience severe psychological deterioration in general population as in AS. These results indicate that psychological deterioration in mentally ill inmates may have less to do with AS than with incarceration in general.
Dual-process theory of racial isolation, legal cynicism, and reported crime
John Hagan et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10 July 2018, Pages 7190-7199
Abstract:
Why is neighborhood racial composition linked so strongly to police-reported crime? Common explanations include over-policing and negative interactions with police, but police reports of crime are heavily dependent on resident 911 calls. Using Sampson’s concept of legal cynicism and Vaisey’s dual-process theory, we theorize that racial concentration and isolation consciously and nonconsciously influence neighborhood variation in 911 calls for protection and prevention. The data we analyze are consistent with this thesis. Independent of police reports of crime, we find that neighborhood racial segregation in 1990 and the legal cynicism about crime prevention and protection it engenders have lasting effects on 911 calls more than a decade later, in 2006–2008. Our theory explains this persistent predictive influence through continuity and change in intervening factors. A source of cumulative continuity, the intensification of neighborhood racial concentration and isolation between 1990 and 2000, predicts 911 calls. Likewise, sources of change — heightened neighborhood incarceration and home foreclosures during the financial crisis in 2006–2008 — also predict these calls. Our findings are consistent with legal cynicism theory’s focus on neighborhood disadvantage, racial isolation, and concerns about police protection and crime prevention; they correspond less with the emphasis of procedural justice theory on police legitimacy.
A Systematic Social Observation Study of Police De-Escalation Tactics
Natalie Todak & Lois James
Police Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study analyzes 131 police–citizen interactions observed during Fall 2016 and coded through systematic social observation. We assessed how often officers use de-escalation tactics, factors associated with their use, and the relationship between de-escalation and calm citizen demeanor. We found officers frequently employed de-escalation tactics, including the “respect” tactic of treating citizens in a respectful manner, the “human” tactic of getting on the citizen’s level and reducing power imbalances, and the “honest” tactic of being up front about the facts of the situation. Officers were more influenced by citizen demeanor than demographics in their use of de-escalation. The use of several tactics, including “human” (reducing the power differential between the cop and the citizen) and “calm” (the officer making an effort to control his or her own emotions), was associated with calm citizen demeanor. Directions for future research on this important topic are offered.
Assessing the Fairness and Effectiveness of Bicycle Stops in Tampa
Ojmarrh Mitchell & Greg Ridgeway
Police Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
This research investigates the fairness and effectiveness of making a large number of bicycle stops as a proactive policing strategy designed to reduce unsafe riding and crime in Tampa, Florida. Public concern about the fairness and effectiveness of this tactic was magnified by a 2015 newspaper article that noted racial disparities in bicycle stops by the Tampa Police Department (TPD). Our analyses found that there are large racial disparities in bicycle stops, which cannot be explained by differences in ridership as measured by our benchmark, bicycle crashes with injury. The observed racial disparities in bicycle stops appear to be attributable to TPD’s crime control efforts, though we cannot rule out some racial bias. Given that crime control was a motivating factor for TPD’s use of bicycle stops, we assessed the effect of bicycle stops on crime using a natural experiment. We found that bicycle stops did not have a meaningful effect on crime.
Is Exposure to Violence a Persistent Risk Factor for Offending across the Life Course? Examining the Contemporaneous, Acute, Enduring, and Long-term Consequences of Exposure to Violence on Property Crime, Violent Offending, and Substance Use
Chelsea Farrell & Gregory Zimmerman
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, forthcoming
Objectives: To examine the contemporaneous (cross-sectional), acute (1 year), enduring (5–7 years), and long-term (12–13 years) effects of exposure to violence on offending behaviors.
Methods: We analyze four waves of data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (N = 7,706). Exposure to violence captures direct (interpersonal victimization and violent threats) and indirect (witnessing violence) experiences with violence. Outcome measures include property crime, violent offending, and substance use. A series of logistic regression models examine the acute, enduring, and long-term effects of exposure to violence on the offending outcomes at each study wave, controlling for exposure to violence, lagged dependent variables, and baseline covariates at all previous waves.
Results: The effects of exposure to violence on violent offending persist over time, with effects attenuating over time. However, exposure to violence only has contemporaneous and acute effects on property crime and drug use.
The Role of Violent and Nonviolent Delinquent Behavior in Educational Attainment
Jinho Kim
Youth & Society, forthcoming
Abstract:
Given large variations in the etiology and developmental trajectories of violent and nonviolent delinquency, this study examines whether educational outcomes of violent and nonviolent offenders might differ. In particular, this study attempts to remove environmental influences such as family background and neighborhood effects from the effects of delinquency because these factors are likely to differentially confound the effects of violent and nonviolent delinquency on educational attainment. By exploiting variation within sibling pairs, this study finds that the effects of engagement in violent delinquency on education is driven spuriously by shared family background, whereas the effects of nonviolent delinquency are quite robust to adjustment for family fixed effects. Moreover, relying on fixed effects estimates, this study finds that the effects of engagement in nonviolent delinquent activity on educational attainment occur in part through disruption of educational progress, rather than through institutional responses to student delinquency and social-psychological processes.