Stocking up
Is the IT Revolution Over? An Asset Pricing View
Colin Ward
Journal of Monetary Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
I develop a method that structures financial market data to forecast economic outcomes. I use it to study the IT sector's transition to its long-run share in the US economy. The method uses a model which links economy-wide growth with IT's market valuation to match transition data on macroeconomic quantities, the sector's life cycle patterns, and, importantly, market valuation ratios. My central estimates indicate that the revolution ends between 2028 and 2034 and that future average labor productivity growth will fall to 1.7 percent from the 2.7 recorded over 1974-2015. I show empirically the IT sector's price-dividend ratio univariately explains over half of the variation in future productivity growth.
Information in stock prices: The case of the 2016 U.S. presidential election
Benjamin Blau, Todd Griffith & Ryan Whitby
Applied Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
On the day before the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the odds of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, according to political prediction markets, were above 90%. Surprisingly, Donald Trump won the Electoral College handily. In this study, we examine how movements in specific stock prices foreshadowed the eventual outcome. Specifically, we conduct a series of standard event-study tests focused on pharmaceutical companies, which became a focal point during the presidential campaign. Results show that while stocks of pharmaceutical companies significantly underperformed the market prior to the election, prices substantially increased beginning three days before the election outcome. This increase is both statistically significant and economically meaningful and robust to various event-study methodologies. These results suggest that some sectors of the stock market seemed to anticipate the election outcome.
How the Wealth Was Won: Factors Shares as Market Fundamentals
Daniel Greenwald, Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson
NBER Working Paper, April 2019
Abstract:
We provide novel evidence on the driving forces behind the sharp increase in equity values over the post-war era. From the beginning of 1989 to the end of 2017, 23 trillion dollars of real equity wealth was created by the nonfinancial corporate sector. We estimate that 54% of this increase was attributable to a reallocation of rents to shareholders in a decelerating economy. Economic growth accounts for just 24%, followed by lower interest rates (11%) and a lower risk premium (11%). From 1952 to 1988 less than half as much wealth was created, but economic growth accounted for 92% of it.
The effects of uncertainty on market liquidity: Evidence from Hurricane Sandy
Dominik Rehse et al.
Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We test the effects of uncertainty on market liquidity using Hurricane Sandy as a natural experiment. Given the unprecedented strength, scale, and nature of the storm, the potential damages of a landfall near the Greater New York area were unpredictable and therefore uncertain. Using a difference-in-differences setting, we compare the market reactions of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) with and without properties in the widely published evacuation zone of New York City prior to landfall. We find relatively less trading and wider bid-ask spreads in affected REITs. The results confirm theory on the detrimental effects of uncertainty on market functioning.
Can the Market Multiply and Divide? Non-Proportional Thinking in Financial Markets
Kelly Shue & Richard Townsend
NBER Working Paper, April 2019
Abstract:
Nominal stock prices are arbitrary. Therefore, when evaluating how a piece of news should affect the price of a stock, rational investors should think in percentage rather than dollar terms. However, dollar price changes are ubiquitously reported and discussed. This may both cause and reflect a tendency of investors to think about the impact of news in dollar terms, leading to more extreme return responses to news for lower-priced stocks. We find a number of results consistent with such non-proportional thinking. First, lower-priced stocks have higher total volatility, idiosyncratic volatility, and market betas, after controlling flexibly for size. To identify a causal effect of price, we show that volatility increases sharply following pre-announced stock splits and drops following reverse stock splits. The returns of lower-priced stocks also respond more strongly to firm-specific news events, all else equal. The economic magnitudes are large: a doubling in a stock's nominal price is associated with a 20-30% decline in its volatility, beta, and return response to firm-specific news. These patterns are not exclusive to small, illiquid stocks; they hold even among the largest stocks. Non-proportional thinking can explain a variety of asset pricing anomalies such as long-run and short-run reversals, as well as the negative relation between past returns and volatility (i.e., the leverage effect). Our analysis also shows that the well-documented negative relation between risk (volatility or beta) and size is actually driven by nominal prices rather than fundamentals.
The Information Advantage of Underwriters in IPOs
Yao-Min Chiang, Michelle Lowry & Yiming Qian
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using a unique data set of dealer-level trading data in bookbuilding initial public offerings (IPOs), we find strong evidence that lead underwriter trades in IPO firms are significantly related to subsequent IPO abnormal returns. This relation is concentrated among issues in which underwriters' information advantage is likely greater, specifically among IPOs with higher information asymmetry or subject to higher investor sentiment and among underwriters with the most industry experience. In contrast, we find no similar relation for trades by other syndicate members, who are not involved in due diligence or pricing, or around auction IPOs, which are characterized by less underwriter involvement. Our results are consistent with the joint hypothesis that underwriters of bookbuilding IPOs gain unique insight into the values of these client firms and that they trade on this information advantage.
Smart investments by smart money: Evidence from acquirers' projected synergies
Ahmad Ismail et al.
Journal of Corporate Finance, June 2019, Pages 343-363
Abstract:
Institutional investors tend to accumulate the shares of firms that announce acquisitions. The tendency to accumulate shares is stronger when the acquirer discloses synergy forecasts, and it is especially strong when the disclosed synergies are higher. This evidence is consistent with the idea that institutional investors are attracted to situations where their superior access to management and analysts provides an information advantage. Indeed, this tendency to accumulate information sensitive shares is especially strong for hedge funds, which tend to have the greatest information advantage. Moreover, stock prices respond favorably in the quarter following the acquisition announcement when higher institutional holdings are revealed.
Sell-Side Analysts and Stock Mispricing: Evidence from Mutual Fund Flow-Driven Trading Pressure
Johan Sulaeman & Kelsey Wei
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using the setting of extreme mutual fund flow-driven trading pressure, this paper examines sell-side analysts' role in stabilizing capital markets. We find that a select group of analysts persistently issue price-correcting recommendation changes for stocks experiencing mutual fund flow-driven mispricing. Such recommendation changes are accompanied by little change to their concurrent earnings forecasts and appear to be driven by the superior research skill of these "mispricing-sensitive" analysts. Stocks receiving price-correcting recommendation changes experience less severe liquidity deterioration, more immediate price correction, and consequently smaller subsequent long-run return reversal. Our findings highlight analysts' unique role in facilitating liquidity provision and stabilizing capital markets during severe mispricing events.