Staying Safe
Downward spiral: Police-threat associations and perceptions of aggression during arrests are mutually reinforcing
Vincenzo Olivett, Madeleine Stults & David March
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, May 2026, Pages 835-846
Abstract:
In the United States, encounters among police officers and civilians are laden with the potential for dangerous outcomes. At the same time, the ubiquity of digital and social media has made observing violent police-civilian encounters easier than ever. Perhaps consequently, recent evidence suggests that Americans automatically associate the police with and behaviorally respond to officers as a source of physical threat. However, little is known about the interplay between observations of violent police encounters and automatic police-threat associations. Four studies (N = 857) reveal a mutually reinforcing dynamic in which (a) automatic police-threat associations shape perceptions of aggression during arrests, (b) perceptions of aggression during arrests influence automatic police-threat associations, and (c) changes in automatic police-threat associations influence downstream perceptions of aggression. That is, people perceive aggression during arrest encounters through the lens of their existing police-threat associations, and these perceptions in turn reinforce those associations.
Unequal Competence? Why Criminal Justice Reformers Are Disadvantaged in Local Elections
Michael Sances
Public Opinion Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
In elections for public safety officials, voters may select candidates based on job experience as well as on policy positions. If experienced candidates are more likely to hold conservative policy views, progressive candidates will be less likely to win. Using text analysis to classify 240 district attorney candidate positions in five states, I show that experienced candidates are more likely to hold "tough on crime" issue positions. In real elections in these states, experienced candidates are more likely to win, while candidate positions are unrelated to election outcomes. In a conjoint experiment where I provide voters information on both experience and candidate positions, voters still often select incongruent but experienced candidates. These results have implications for the movement to elect progressive prosecutors, and they shed light on public opinion and vote choice in an important but under-studied office. More broadly, the results suggest limits on ideological responsiveness when elected officials are both politicians and bureaucrats.
Prediction Errors, Incarceration, and Violent Crime: Evidence from Linking Prosecutor Surveys to Court Records
Emma Harrington, William Murdock & Hannah Shaffer
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026, Pages 375-403
Abstract:
Incarceration is often justified by a defendant's risk of future crime. To what extent do biased beliefs about predictors of crime distort incarceration decisions? We survey prosecutors about how violent rearrest rates vary by defendant age and criminal history. Surveyed prosecutors make systematic errors: They underestimate the decline in rearrest with age and overestimate the increase with criminal history. By linking prosecutors' beliefs to their quasi-randomly assigned cases, we show that prosecutors' beliefs predict incarceration patterns by defendant age and criminal history in their cases. Finally, we find that prosecutors with more accurate beliefs simultaneously reduce violent rearrest and incarceration.
How Much Risk, and Risk of What? A Closer Look at Pretrial Rearrest and Risk Assessment
Cristopher Moore et al.
Criminal Justice Policy Review, June 2026, Pages 150-181
Abstract:
Many studies of pretrial rearrest aggregate charges of all severities together, from high-level felonies to petty misdemeanors. Using a dataset of over 15,000 felony defendants who were released pretrial between July 2017 and July 2021 in New Mexico, we disaggregated rearrest outcomes by offense type and severity and explored how these factors related to the risk scores generated by the Public Safety Assessment (PSA). We found that the rates of rearrest for serious crimes during pretrial release were lower than the overall rearrest rates suggest. In particular, across all PSA score categories, approximately one-third of rearrests involved misdemeanors or petty misdemeanors. Of the two-thirds of rearrests for felony charges, most were for fourth-degree offenses. Rearrest for first- or second-degree felonies was rare, occurring in less than 0.1% and 1% of cases, respectively, even among defendants whose initial charge was severe and who received high risk scores from the PSA.
A Community-Based Examination of the Association between Perceived and Actual Homicide Clearance Rates and Cooperation with Homicide Investigations
Kathryn Bocanegra & Aaron Gottlieb
American Journal of Criminal Justice, April 2026, Pages 455-477
Abstract:
The study explores the association between actual and perceived police effectiveness in solving homicides and community members' willingness to cooperate in homicide investigations. Using original survey data collected from five Chicago neighborhoods with high homicide rates and varying clearance rates, the study analyzes the impact of both actual and perceived homicide clearance rates on the likelihood of individuals cooperating in a homicide investigation. The research focuses on two forms of cooperation: calling the police after witnessing a homicide and providing information about a suspect associated with a homicide. Results from multinomial logistic regression analyses indicate that higher actual and perceived clearance rates significantly increase the probability of cooperation. Importantly, the study highlights that community perceptions of police effectiveness are critical in shaping cooperative behavior, suggesting that improving both real and perceived police efficacy could enhance homicide clearance outcomes. The study contributes to existing theories of police legitimacy by offering empirical evidence on the role of perceived police effectiveness in fostering cooperation in the context of homicide investigations. Moreover, the study emphasizes the importance of community-centered approaches to improving homicide clearance rates, particularly in racially and ethnically diverse neighborhoods disproportionately affected by violence.
Firearm Policy Buyers Would Accept
Bradley Shapiro, Sara Drango & Sarah Moshary
University of Chicago Working Paper, April 2026
Abstract:
Policies restricting gun sales face substantial political opposition and constitutional constraints. We take a different approach: rather than asking whether gun restrictions should be imposed, we ask how much it would cost to compensate potential handgun buyers to choose alternative products. Using a structural model of firearms demand estimated from stated-choice experiments, we estimate the distribution of willingness-to-accept (WTA) for substituting away from handguns toward long guns or no gun purchase. Because handguns account for the majority of firearm deaths in the United States, substitution away from handguns may have meaningful public health implications. We find that targeted compensation can induce substantial substitution at relatively modest cost, while uniform subsidies are far less cost-effective due to windfall payments to inframarginal buyers. Our results highlight scope for compensation-based policies to reduce externalities while leaving buyers better off.
The Impact of Marijuana Decriminalization on Crime: Evidence from Atlanta
Brian Meehan, Jamie Sharpe & Jake Weitkamp
Eastern Economic Journal, April 2026, Pages 308-326
Abstract:
In 2017, Atlanta decriminalized misdemeanor amounts of marijuana. Previously, possession of an ounce or less could result in a fine of up to $1,500 and a year in jail under Georgia state law. After decriminalization, the penalty in Atlanta was reduced to a maximum $75 fine with no jail time. We employ two-way fixed effects and synthetic difference-in-difference methods to analyze the impact on Atlanta's crime rates, using other Georgia cities still enforcing state law as a control group. Our findings suggest that decriminalization led to a reduction in violent crime and violent crime clearances, likely due to police reallocating resources from marijuana enforcement to violent crime prevention -- aligning with claims by the Atlanta Police Department.
False Alerts Related to GPS Electronic Monitoring in Illinois Cook County Sheriff's Office
Sungsoon Hwang et al.
Criminal Justice Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
The number of people under electronic monitoring has grown due to the increased use of Global Positioning System (GPS) technology. Meanwhile, a rise in false alerts (i.e., violation alerts that turned out to be groundless) from monitoring devices has concerned many as it has strained resources and disrupted lives. Analyzing Illinois Cook County Sheriff's Office electronic monitoring data, we examined whether false alerts increased following the transition to GPS, how false alerts from GPS monitoring were spatially distributed, and to what extent false alerts were associated with GPS drift (position errors). The rate of monthly false alerts increased from 57.79% in 2017-2019 (radio frequency) to 95.50% in 2021-2023 (GPS). Zip codes with high rates of false alerts have tall buildings that are known to cause GPS drift. Analyzing GPS locations of monitored participants in Geographic Information Systems, we found that false inclusion zone violation alert incidents are closely linked to GPS drift. Results indicate that limitations of GPS technology are inadequately addressed in the current arrangement of electronic monitoring involving law enforcement personnel, and private contractors. Sociotechnical reliability should be improved for electronic monitoring to be utilized as a genuinely cost effective and less restrictive alternative to incarceration.
"EBK": Using Crowd-Sourced Social Media Data to Quantify How Hyperlocal Gang Affiliations Shape Networks and Violence in Chicago
Riley Tucker et al.
Journal of Quantitative Criminology, March 2026, Pages 31-60
Methods: A parts-of-speech based natural language processing strategy is used to analyze text from Reddit pages about Chicago to create a social network dataset of 271 individuals across 11 gang sets. Using datasets collected and shared by Reddit users, we identify the geographic boundaries associated with each set, which are validated against official police data. Louvain community detection is utilized to identify sub-communities within the network, and hierarchical linear models are used to evaluate whether gang affiliations or network positionality are more salient in explaining mortality risk.
Results: Overall, results provide quantitative evidence for EBK hypotheses. Community detection analyses suggest that gang-affiliated individuals in the South Side often connect with gang-affiliated peers from several gang sets, particularly those operating in spaces nearby their own gang. Hierarchical logistic regression revealed that individuals with ties to homicide victims and central positions in the overall gang network were at increased risk of victimization, regardless of gang affiliation.
Evaluating facility dogs as a workplace intervention in policing: A randomized controlled trial in New York City
Kenneth Quick
Police Practice and Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
The use of professionally trained dogs to support police officer wellness is a rapidly growing practice in police agencies around the world, reflecting a broader recognition of the need for innovative, stigma-reducing approaches to mental health support in law enforcement. This article reports the findings of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) that evaluated the effect of professionally trained facility dogs used by the New York City Police Department's (NYPD) employee assistance program (EAP) for the purpose of addressing officer well-being. A stratified randomized strategy was used to designate which patrol units would receive the treatment condition, which consisted of exposure to a facility dog during EAP informational sessions targeting NYPD officers. The sessions were conducted by EAP counselors, who are also sworn members of the department. Four dimensions related to officer mental health and well-being were evaluated: willingness to use the EAP, perceived organizational support (POS), perceived EAP support, and receptivity to the use of dogs to address officer wellness. The study found that exposure to a facility dog significantly increased officers perceived organizational support (POS), perceived EAP support, and receptivity to the use of dogs for wellness purposes, although it did not affect officers' willingness to use the EAP. These findings suggest that professionally trained dogs may serve as a, high-impact strategy for enhancing officer wellness and organizational support in police agencies. As such, integrating facility dogs into officer wellness programs may offer a practical, stigma-reducing approach to improve mental health support and address challenges such as low POS, which is associated with reduced organizational commitment and disengagement from proactive policing.