Report to Your Precinct
Accountability for the Local Economy at All Levels of Government in United States Elections
Justin de Benedictis-Kessner & Christopher Warshaw
American Political Science Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Retrospective voting is a crucial component of democratic accountability. A large literature on retrospective voting in the United States finds that the president's party is rewarded in presidential elections for strong economic performance and punished for weak performance. By contrast, there is no clear consensus about whether politicians are held accountable for the local economy at other levels of government, nor how voters react to the economy in a complex system of multilevel responsibility. In this study, we use administrative data on county-level economic conditions from 1969 to 2018 and election results across multiple levels of government to examine the effect of the local economy on elections for local, state, and federal offices in the United States. We find that the president's party is held accountable for economic performance across nearly all levels of government. We also find that incumbents are held accountable for the economy in U.S. House and gubernatorial elections. Our findings have broad implications for literatures on representation, accountability, and elections.
Sexism, racism, and nationalism: Factors associated with the 2016 U.S. presidential election results?
Natalie Shook et al.
PLoS ONE, March 2020
Abstract:
After the generally unexpected outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election, many explanations were proposed to account for the results. Three narratives that received a considerable amount of media attention were that sexist, racist, and/or nationalist attitudes influenced voting decisions. Some empirical work has supported each of these accounts. However, sexism, racism, and nationalism are interrelated, and most studies about the 2016 election have not examined these three factors in conjunction to determine the unique contribution of each. Thus, we investigated the extent to which each factor (assessed as sexism toward women, Modern Racism, and U.S. nationalism) was uniquely related to evaluations of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, voting intentions, and actual voting behavior. Participants completed online questionnaires before (N = 489) and after (N = 192) the 2016 U.S. election. More positive evaluation of Clinton and intentions to vote for Clinton were associated with lower levels of Modern Racism. More positive evaluation of Trump was associated with greater sexism toward women, Modern Racism, and U.S. nationalism. Intent to vote for Trump was associated with greater sexism toward women and Modern Racism. However, only Modern Racism significantly predicted voting behavior. Greater Modern Racism was associated with greater likelihood of voting for Trump and lower likelihood of voting for Clinton. When considered in conjunction, Modern Racism was the most consistent predictor across the different election outcome variables. Sexism toward women and U.S. nationalism were generally not significantly related to evaluations, intentions to vote, or voting behavior when accounting for Modern Racism. Thus, our data indicate that Modern Racism was correlated with vote choice in the 2016 election.
Flight to Safety: 2020 Democratic Primary Election Results and COVID-19
James Bisbee & Dan Honig
Princeton Working Paper, April 2020
Abstract:
What is the impact of anxiety on vote choice? Building on a well-documented phenomenon in finance, we posit that voters will exhibit a "flight to safety" by turning toward establishment candidates. We test this theory in the context of the Democratic primary election of 2020 by examining changes in the vote shares of Bernie Sanders, a candidate promising disruptive change. We use the outbreak of the novel coronavirus across both space and time to identify a causal effect of anxiety on voting. By comparing counties with and without reported cases in their local media market, before and after the outbreak of the virus, we show that COVID-19 anxiety resulted in diminished support for Sanders as compared to his support in the 2016 election. Our findings contribute empirical evidence to an as-yet underappreciated preference for "safe" candidates in times of social anxiety.
The Virus of Fear: The Political Impact of Ebola in the U.S.
Filipe Campante, Emilio Depetris-Chauvin & Ruben Durante
NBER Working Paper, March 2020
Abstract:
We study how fear can affect the behavior of voters and politicians by looking at the Ebola scare that hit the U.S. a month before the 2014 midterm elections. Exploiting the timing and location of the four cases diagnosed in the U.S., we show that heightened concern about Ebola, as measured by online activity, led to a lower vote share for the Democrats in congressional and gubernatorial elections, as well as lower turnout, despite no evidence of a general anti-incumbent effect (including on President Obama's approval ratings). We then show that politicians responded to the Ebola scare by mentioning the disease in connection with immigration and terrorism in newsletters and campaign ads. This response came only from Republicans, especially those facing competitive races, suggesting a strategic use of the issue in conjunction with topics perceived as favorable to them. Survey evidence suggests that voters responded with increasingly conservative attitudes on immigration but not on other ideologically-charged issues. Taken together, our findings indicate that emotional reactions associated with fear can have a strong electoral impact, that politicians perceive and act strategically in response to this, and that the process is mediated by issues that can be plausibly associated with the specific fear-triggering factor.
The Effect of Associative Racial Cues in Elections
Adam Berinsky et al.
Political Communication, forthcoming
Abstract:
How do racial signals associating a candidate with minority supporters change voters' perceptions about a candidate and their support for a candidate? Given the presence of competing information in any campaign or the absence of information in low-salience campaigns, voters may rely on heuristics - such as race - to make the process of voting easier. The information communicated by these signals may be so strong that they cause voters to ignore other, perhaps more politically relevant, information. In this paper, we test how associative racial cues sway voters' perceptions of and support for candidates using two experiments that harness real-world print and audio campaign advertisements. We find that the signals in these ads can sometimes overwhelm cues about policy positions when the two are present together. Moreover, we find that such signals have limited effects on candidate support among Black voters but that they risk substantial backlash of up to eight percentage points in reported vote intention among White voters. Our results highlight how voters gather and use information in low-information elections and demonstrate the power of campaign communication strategies that use racial associations.
Extreme districts, moderate winners: Same-party challenges, and deterrence in top-two primaries
Jesse Crosson
Political Science Research and Methods, forthcoming
Abstract:
In an effort to break the link between districts' lack of competitiveness and the election of ideologues, Washington and California recently adopted the "top-two" primary election system. Among other features, the top-two primary allows members of the same party to run against one another in the general election. Although proponents argue that this system encourages the election of more moderate candidates in highly partisan districts, early reports have uncovered mixed evidence of this effect. This study addresses this puzzle by first disentangling the conditions under which one should expect such primaries to encourage the election of more moderate candidates. Using election returns data from the 2008 through 2014 elections, I find that districts facing same-party general-election competition do elect more moderate legislators than similar districts not subject to same-party competition. However, using an application of a common regression discontinuity diagnostic test, I also find that elite actors appear able to strategically avoid this kind of competition - partially explaining why broader effects of the top-two have not been uncovered. The findings contribute not only to ongoing debates about the effectiveness of the top-two primary, but also to our understanding of how political elites may maneuver institutional changes to their own benefit.
Political Scandal: A Theory
Wioletta Dziuda & William Howell
University of Chicago Working Paper, March 2020
Abstract:
We study a model that characterizes the conditions under which past misbehavior becomes the subject of present scandal, with consequences for both the implicated politician and the parties that work with him. In the model, both authentic and fake scandals arise endogenously within a political framework involving two parties that trade off benefits of continued collaboration with a suspect politician against the possibility of reputational fallout. Rising polarization between the two parties, we show, increases the likelihood of scandal while decreasing its informational value. Scandals that are triggered by only the opposing party, we also find, are reputationally damaging to both parties and, in some instances, reputationally enhancing to the politician. The model also reveals that jurisdictions with lots of scandals are not necessarily beset by more misbehavior. Under well-defined conditions, in fact, scandals can be a sign of political piety.
What Leads Racially Resentful Voters to Choose Black Candidates?
Christopher Karpowitz et al.
Journal of Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
In studies of voting behavior, racial resentment has consistently been associated with decreased support for black candidates. In this paper we bring together a unique collection of observational data and survey experiments to show how, in the certain contexts, exactly the opposite occurs: racially resentful voters prefer to vote for a black candidate over a white competitor. Higher levels of racial resentment do not imply an unyielding opposition to black candidates because such voters respond to partisan and ideological cues about the preferences of black candidates. Because the traditional measure of racial resentment captures more than just racial animus, some black candidates - most notably, Republicans with an individualist message - benefit electorally from higher levels of racial resentment in the electorate. These results highlight the importance of campaign context in shaping how voters respond to racial, partisan, and ideological cues.
Testing the babble hypothesis: Speaking time predicts leader emergence in small groups
Neil MacLaren et al.
Leadership Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
The large, positive correlation between speaking time and leader emergence is well-established. As such, some authors have argued for a "babble hypothesis" of leadership, suggesting that only the quantity of speaking, not its quality, determines leader emergence. However, previous tests of this notion may have been problematic. Some studies have asserted a causal effect of speaking time on leader emergence based on experimental studies, but have limited participant communication, access to reliable information, or both. Other studies have used more ecologically valid designs, but have not always controlled for relevant participant traits or roles, suggesting potential endogeneity effects. Testing the babble hypothesis thus requires a study that is both ecologically valid and supports strong inference. The current study fills that gap and finds that speaking time retains its direct effect on leader emergence when accounting for intelligence, personality, gender, and the endogeneity of speaking time.
Policy Inertia, Election Uncertainty and Incumbency Disadvantage of Political Parties
Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor
Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
We document that postwar U.S. elections show a strong pattern of "incumbency disadvantage": If a party has held the presidency of the country or the governorship of a state for some time, that party tends to lose popularity in the subsequent election. We show that this fact can be explained by a combination of policy inertia and unpredictability in election outcomes. A quantitative analysis shows that the observed magnitude of incumbency disadvantage can arise in several different models of policy inertia. Normative and positive implications of policy inertia leading to incumbency disadvantage are explored.
Policy and Performance in the New Deal Realignment: Evidence from Old Data and New Methods
Devin Caughey, Michael Dougal & Eric Schickler
Journal of Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Recent research has challenged the policy bases of the New Deal realignment, arguing that it was instead driven by retrospective evaluations of the economy. Using a comprehensive analysis of opinion polls conducted in 1936-52, we argue that policy preferences were far from irrelevant. At the individual level, presidential Republicans who became Democrats were much more supportive of New Deal policies than those who remained loyal (vice versa for Democrats). At the state level, both public support for the New Deal - as measured by a group-level item response model - and income growth predict pro-Democratic shifts in presidential elections. In short, the realignment was rooted in both policy preferences and economic retrospection. Moreover, mass support for the New Deal, unlike partisan identification, was a leading indicator of long-term electoral trends, predicting presidential elections decades in the future even better than it does contemporaneous elections.
The Effects of Election Day Festivals and Early Voting Center Festivals on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment Conducted During the 2018 Midterm Election
Donald Green & Oliver McClellan
Columbia University Working Paper, March 2020
Abstract:
During the final weeks of the 2018 general election, #VoteTogether coordinated a series of non-partisan election festivals designed to encourage voter turnout in targeted precincts across the country. Building on prior experiments that assessed the effects of Election Day festivals on voter turnout in municipal, state, and presidential elections, the current study evaluates this get-out-the-vote tactic in the context of federal midterm elections. A total of 57 pairs of precincts were randomly assigned to treatment or control; in treatment locations, local groups received small grants to coordinate pre-event publicity and hold outdoor festivals near polling locations on Election Day. A separate experiment evaluated the effectiveness of festivals held at early voting centers; here, random assignment determined which of seven pairs of locations received a festival. Festivals held on Election Day appear to have had no positive effect on turnout in 2018. Insufficient pre-event publicity may have undercut the effectiveness of this tactic. On the other hand, festivals held in early voting centers were highly effective, raising turnout by 3.5 percentage points.