Public Risk
Epidemics and trust: The case of the Spanish Flu
Arnstein Aassve et al.
Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Recent studies argue that major crises can have long‐lasting effects on individual behavior. While most studies focused on natural disasters, we explore the consequences of the global pandemic caused by a lethal influenza virus in 1918-19: the so‐called “Spanish Flu.” This was by far the worst pandemic of modern history, causing up to 100 million deaths worldwide. Using information about attitudes of respondents to the General Social Survey, we find evidence that experiencing the pandemic likely had permanent consequences in terms of individuals' social trust. Our findings suggest that lower social trust was passed on to the descendants of the survivors of the Spanish Flu who migrated to the United States. As trust is a crucial factor for long‐term economic development, our research offers a new angle from which to assess current health threats.
Economic freedom, pandemics, and robust political economy
Rosolino Candela & Vincent Geloso
Southern Economic Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
What is the relationship, if any, between economic freedom and pandemics? This paper addresses this question from a robust political economy approach. As is the case with recovery from natural disasters or warfare, a society that is relatively free economically offers economic actors greater flexibility to adapt to pandemics. We argue that societies that are more economically free will be more robust to the impact from pandemics, illustrated by shorter time for economic recovery. We illustrate this relationship by testing how initial levels of economic freedom (at the start of the major influenza pandemics of the 20th century) temper contractions and accelerate recoveries for 20 OECD countries.
Vaccinating the oldest against COVID-19 saves both the most lives and most years of life
Joshua Goldstein, Thomas Cassidy & Kenneth Wachter
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 16 March 2021
Abstract:
Many competing criteria are under consideration for prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination. Two criteria based on age are demographic: lives saved and years of future life saved. Vaccinating the very old against COVID-19 saves the most lives, but, since older age is accompanied by falling life expectancy, it is widely supposed that these two goals are in conflict. We show this to be mistaken. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality are such that vaccinating the oldest first saves the most lives and, surprisingly, also maximizes years of remaining life expectancy. We demonstrate this relationship empirically in the United States, Germany, and South Korea and with mathematical analysis of life tables. Our age-risk results, under usual conditions, also apply to health risks.
How social capital helps communities weather the COVID-19 pandemic
Christos Makridis & Cary Wu
PLoS ONE, January 2021
Abstract:
Why have the effects of COVID-19 been so unevenly geographically distributed in the United States? This paper investigates the role of social capital as a mediating factor for the spread of the virus. Because social capital is associated with greater trust and relationships within a community, it could endow individuals with a greater concern for others, thereby leading to more hygienic practices and social distancing. Using data for over 2,700 US counties, we investigate how social capital explains the level and growth rate of infections. We find that moving a county from the 25th to the 75th percentile of the distribution of social capital would lead to a 18% and 5.7% decline in the cumulative number of infections and deaths, as well as suggestive evidence of a lower spread of the virus. Our results are robust to many demographic characteristics, controls, and alternative measures of social capital.
Separation of power and expertise: Evidence of the tyranny of experts in Sweden's COVID‐19 responses
Per Bylund & Mark Packard
Southern Economic Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
Whereas most countries in the COVID‐19 pandemic imposed shutdowns and curfews to mitigate the contagion, Sweden uniquely pursued a more voluntarist approach. In this article, our interest is primarily on how and why Sweden's approach to the pandemic was so unique. There are two parts to this research question: (1) why did virtually all other nations follow a radical lockdown protocol despite limited evidence to its effectiveness and (2) why did Sweden not follow this same protocol despite strong political pressures? The answers to these questions lie within typical government technocracy versus Sweden's constitutional separation of government and technocracy. We review the history of the responses to the pandemic and show how the “tyranny of experts” was severe within the typical technocratic policy response, and attenuated in Sweden's. Thus, the recent pandemic offers empirical evidence and insights regarding the role of Hayekian knowledge problems in engendering a technocratic “tyranny of experts” and how such effects can be structurally mitigated.
Going Viral: How Fear, Socio-Cognitive Polarization and Problem-Solving Influence Fake News Detection and Proliferation During COVID-19 Pandemic
Carola Salvi et al.
Frontiers in Communication, January 2021
Abstract:
In times of uncertainty, people often seek out information to help alleviate fear, possibly leaving them vulnerable to false information. During the COVID-19 pandemic, we attended to a viral spread of incorrect and misleading information that compromised collective actions and public health measures to contain the spread of the disease. We investigated the influence of fear of COVID-19 on social and cognitive factors including believing in fake news, bullshit receptivity, overclaiming, and problem-solving - within two of the populations that have been severely hit by COVID-19: Italy and the United States of America. To gain a better understanding of the role of misinformation during the early height of the COVID-19 pandemic, we also investigated whether problem-solving ability and socio-cognitive polarization were associated with believing in fake news. Results showed that fear of COVID-19 is related to seeking out information about the virus and avoiding infection in the Italian and American samples, as well as a willingness to share real news (COVID and non-COVID-related) headlines in the American sample. However, fear positively correlated with bullshit receptivity, suggesting that the pandemic might have contributed to creating a situation where people were pushed toward pseudo-profound existential beliefs. Furthermore, problem-solving ability was associated with correctly discerning real or fake news, whereas socio-cognitive polarization was the strongest predictor of believing in fake news in both samples. From these results, we concluded that a construct reflecting cognitive rigidity, neglecting alternative information, and black-and-white thinking negatively predicts the ability to discern fake from real news. Such a construct extends also to reasoning processes based on thinking outside the box and considering alternative information such as problem-solving.
It's a conspiracy: Covid-19 conspiracies link to psychopathy, Machiavellianism and collective narcissism
Sara Hughes & Laura Machan
Personality and Individual Differences, March 2021
Abstract:
A proliferation of conspiracy theories has emerged during the Covid-19 health pandemic. The present study investigated individual susceptibility to conspiracy beliefs and the mediating role of Covid related conspiracy beliefs on links between personality and intentional dissemination of Covid-19 conspiracies and willingness to obtain a Covid-19 vaccine. Specifically, we focused on trait psychopathy, Machiavellianism and collective narcissism, as these traits have previously been linked to heightened conspiracy mentalities. We recruited 406 UK participants to take part in an online survey investigating personality and Covid-19 information. Machiavellianism and primary psychopathy positively predicted general and Covid specific conspiracy beliefs, whereas collective narcissism positively predicted Covid specific conspiracy beliefs only. Covid-19 conspiracy beliefs mediated the negative relationships between all traits and willingness to obtain a future vaccine. We discuss possible implications of these findings and provide direction for future research.
The influence of mortality reminders on cultural in‐group versus out‐group takeaway food safety perceptions during the COVID‐19 pandemic
Simon McCabe & Seda Erdem
Journal of Applied Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
During the early stages of the COVID‐19 pandemic takeaway food orders generally increased, yet sales of Chinese and Italian food declined. At this time, news sources ran stories on the safety of cuisine from these countries, frequently juxtaposed with communications on mortality‐related information related to the virus. Terror management theory suggests mortality concerns can lead people to defend against the psychological threat of death by bolstering positive evaluations of products and values of their own culture, and by disparaging products and values of other cultures. This translates to food preferences, with death reminders heightening consumption of food from one's own (vs. others’) culture. However, whether this extends to food safety perceptions has not yet been probed. In the present experimental study, we examine whether death reminders (vs. a control topic) led U.S. participants to view American takeaway food as safer to consume, relative to Chinese and Italian food. Results indicate that across conditions, American food was evaluated as safer relative to Chinese and Italian takeout. Further, American takeaway was seen as safer after mortality reminders (vs. a control topic), with no differences in safety evaluations for Chinese or Italian takeout. Results are discussed in relation to the COVID‐19 pandemic.
What is the Causal Effect of Income Gains on Youth Obesity? Leveraging the Economic Boom Created by the Marcellus Shale Development
Molly Martin
Social Science & Medicine, March 2021
Abstract:
Low family income is frequently assumed to be a primary social determinant of youth obesity in the U.S. But while the observed correlation between family income and youth obesity is consistently negative, the true causal relationship is unclear. I take advantage of a natural experiment - the boom economy created by development of the Marcellus Shale geological formation for natural gas extraction - to study whether income gains affect youth obesity rates among Pennsylvania students. To test this relationship, I compile data from geological, administrative, Census and other governmental sources and estimate cross-sectional OLS regression models, longitudinal fixed effects models, and two-stage instrumental variable models within a difference-in-differences framework. Falsification tests indicate that children’s location relative to the Marcellus Shale’s geological boundaries is a valid instrument for income gains. Yet plausibly exogenous income gains do not alter youth obesity rates, regardless of the community’s initial level of poverty or affluence and regardless of the child’s grade level. Thus, the observed disparities in youth obesity by area income in Pennsylvania do not result from simple differences in disposable income and the relative cost of “healthy” versus “unhealthy” goods and services.
Accuracy of Urologic Conditions Portrayed on Grey’s Anatomy
Hanson Zhao & Jennifer Anger
Health Education & Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Despite the common prevalence of urologic diseases, studies have demonstrated that the general public often has little knowledge or insight into the field of urology or the role of an urologist. In this study, we investigated the context, frequency, and accuracy of urologic conditions on the television series Grey’s Anatomy. We reviewed episodes from the first 15 seasons. Episodes with urologic references were then screened and the urologic conditions, outcomes, and treatments were recorded. We identified a total of only 21 urologic events across 15 seasons and 342 episodes of Grey’s Anatomy. A total of 52% (11/21) of the conditions were related to external male genitalia. The portrayal of these conditions and the associated treatments were considered to be medically accurate within reason 62% (13/21) of the time. There is significant room for improvement to increase the portrayal of common urologic conditions and malignancies to improve the public’s awareness and perception of our specialty.