Peddling
Do State Tobacco 21 Laws Work?
Calvin Bryan et al.
NBER Working Paper, December 2020
Abstract:
Tobacco 21 (T-21) laws prohibit the sale of tobacco products to individuals under age 21. This study is the first to comprehensively examine the impacts of statewide T-21 laws on youth tobacco consumption, including spillovers to minor teens. Using data from the 2009-2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS) and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the enactment of a statewide T-21 law was associated with a 2.5 to 4.0 percentage-point decline in smoking participation among 18-to-20-year-olds. A causal interpretation of our estimates is supported by event-study analyses and falsification tests for young adults ages 21 and older. Next, using data from the 2009-2019 State Youth Risky Behavior Surveys (YRBS), we find that statewide T-21 laws reduced tobacco cigarette and electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) consumption among 18-year-old high school students. We also find that the public health benefits of T-21 laws extend to 16-to-17-year-olds, a group that relies heavily on the “social market” - including 18-year-old peers - to access tobacco. We conclude increasing the minimum legal purchasing age for tobacco to 21 appears to be a more effective current policy strategy to deter youth smoking than raising cigarette taxes.
Breaking the Crystal Methamphetamine Economy: Illegal Drugs, Supply‐side Interventions and Crime Responses
Rocco d'Este
Economica, January 2021, Pages 208-233
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the effects on crime of supply‐side interventions that restricted access to pseudoephedrine‐based medications in the USA, drastically reducing the domestic production of methamphetamine. I find that these government interventions increased property and violent crime by around 3-4%, with criminogenic effects lasting for up to 7 months. Stronger evidence is detected in counties where laboratories producing methamphetamine were previously in operation. My findings suggest that policy interventions that have a limited effect on supply and no impact on the demand for drugs could open up the way to unwarranted crime responses. Timely policy implications are discussed.
Three-Year Outcomes After Brief Treatment of Substance Use and Mood Symptoms
Sujaya Parthasarathy et al.
Pediatrics, forthcoming
Background: Screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (SBIRT) for adolescents exhibiting co-occurring substance use and mental health problems may improve outcomes and have long-lasting effects. This study examined the relationship between access to SBIRT and substance use, depression and medical diagnoses, and health services use at 1 and 3 years postscreening for such adolescents.
Methods: The study draws from a cluster-randomized trial comparing SBIRT to usual care (UC) for adolescents endorsing past-year substance use and recent mood symptoms during visits to a general pediatrics clinic between November 1, 2011, and October 31, 2013, in a large, integrated health system (N = 1851); this sample examined the subset of adolescents endorsing both problems (n = 289). Outcomes included depression, substance use and medical diagnoses, and emergency department and outpatient visits 1 and 3 years later.
Results: The SBIRT group had lower odds of depression diagnoses at 1 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.31; confidence interval [CI] = 0.11-0.87) and 3 years (OR = 0.51; CI = 0.28-0.94) compared with the UC group. At 3 years, the SBIRT group had lower odds of a substance use diagnosis (OR = 0.46; CI = 0.23-0.92), and fewer emergency department visits (rate ratio = 0.65; CI = 0.44-0.97) than UC group.
Recreational Marijuana Legalization and Adolescent Use of Marijuana, Tobacco, and Alcohol
Rebekah Levine Coley et al.
Journal of Adolescent Health, forthcoming
Methods: Youth Risk Behavior Survey data from 47 states from 1999 to 2017 assessed marijuana, alcohol, cigarette, and e-cigarette use among adolescents (14-18+ years; N = 1,077,938). Associations between RML and adolescent past-month substance use were analyzed using quasi-experimental difference-in-differences zero-inflated negative binomial models.
Results: Controlling for other state substance policies, year and state fixed effects, and adolescent demographic characteristics, models found that RML was not associated with a significant shift in the likelihood of marijuana use but predicted a small significant decline in the level of marijuana use among users (incidence rate ratio = .844, 95% confidence interval [.720-.989]) and a small increase in the likelihood of any e-cigarette use (odds ratio of zero use = .647, 95% confidence interval [.515-.812]). Patterns did not vary over adolescent age or sex, with minimal differences across racial/ethnic groups.
Adolescent Marijuana Use in the United States and Structural Breaks: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis, 1991 to 2018
Jiaxin Gu et al.
American Journal of Epidemiology, forthcoming
Abstract:
To investigate temporal patterns, socio-demographic gradients, and structural breaks in adolescent marijuana use in the United States from 1991 to 2018, we used hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort logistic models to separate temporal effects of marijuana use among 8th, 10th, and 12th graders from 28 waves of the Monitoring the Future survey. Structural breaks in period effects were further detected via a dynamic-programing-based method. Net of other effects, we found a clear age-related increase in the probability of marijuana use (10.46%, 23.17%, and 31.19% for 8th, 10th and 12th graders, respectively). Period effects showed a substantial increase over time (from 16.23% in 2006 to 26.38% in 2018), while cohort effects remained stable over the period of study. Risk of adolescent marijuana use varied by sex, racial group, family status, and parental education. Significant structural breaks during 1995-1996, 2006-2008, and 2011-2013 were identified in sub-populations. A steady increase in marijuana use among adolescents over the latter years of this time period was identified. Adolescents who were male, non-Black, lived in non-intact families, and who had less educated parents were especially at risk of marijuana usage. Trends of adolescent marijuana use changed significantly during times of economic crisis.
Urban Mortality and the Repeal of Federal Prohibition
David Jacks, Krishna Pendakur & Hitoshi Shigeoka
NBER Working Paper, December 2020
Abstract:
Federal prohibition from 1920 to 1933 was one of the most ambitious policy interventions in US history. However, due to the political concessions necessary to bring about repeal, the removal of restrictions on alcohol after 1933 was not uniform. Using new data on city-level variation in alcohol prohibition from 1933 to 1936, we investigate whether the repeal of federal prohibition affected multiple causes of urban (non-infant) mortality. We find that city-level repeal is associated with a 14.7% decrease in homicide rates and a 10.1% decrease in mortality rates associated with other accidents (including accidental poisonings). Thus, the repeal of federal prohibition could have led to an annual reduction of as many as 3,400 urban deaths. Combined with previous results showing large increases in infant mortality, this suggests that nonetheless repeal most likely had negative effects on all-cause mortality and, thereby, public health in the US.
Genotype-environment correlation by intervention effects underlying middle childhood peer rejection and associations with adolescent marijuana use
Kit Elam et al.
Development and Psychopathology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Aggressive behavior in middle childhood can contribute to peer rejection, subsequently increasing risk for substance use in adolescence. However, the quality of peer relationships a child experiences can be associated with his or her genetic predisposition, a genotype-environment correlation (rGE). In addition, recent evidence indicates that psychosocial preventive interventions can buffer genetic predispositions for negative behavior. The current study examined associations between polygenic risk for aggression, aggressive behavior, and peer rejection from 8.5 to 10.5 years, and the subsequent influence of peer rejection on marijuana use in adolescence (n = 515; 256 control, 259 intervention). Associations were examined separately in control and intervention groups for children of families who participated in a randomized controlled trial of the family-based preventive intervention, the Family Check-Up. Using time-varying effect modeling (TVEM), polygenic risk for aggression was associated with peer rejection from approximately age 8.50 to 9.50 in the control group but no associations were present in the intervention group. Subsequent analyses showed peer rejection mediated the association between polygenic risk for aggression and adolescent marijuana use in the control group. The role of rGEs in middle childhood peer processes and implications for preventive intervention programs for adolescent substance use are discussed.