Pay As You Go
The Tax Gradient: Spatial Aspects of Fiscal Competition
David Agrawal
American Economic Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
State borders create a discontinuous tax treatment of retail sales. In a Nash game, local tax rates will be higher on the low-state-tax side of a border. Local taxes will decrease from the nearest high-tax border and increase from the low-tax border. Using driving time from state borders and all local sales tax rates, local tax rates on the low-tax side of the border are 1.25 percentage points higher, reducing the differential in state tax rates by over three-quarters. A ten minute increase in driving time from the nearest high-tax state lowers a border town's local tax rate by 6%.
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Taxes and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Linguistic Cues
Kelvin Law & Lillian Mills
University of Texas Working Paper, June 2014
Abstract:
Using a new measure of financial constraints based on firms' qualitative disclosure, we find financially constrained firms — firms that use more negative words in their annual reports — pursue more aggressive tax planning strategies: (1) have higher current and future unrecognized tax benefits, (2) have lower short- and long-run current and future effective tax rates, and (3) use more tax havens for their material operations. We exploit the unexpected closure of local banks as exogenous liquidity shocks to show that firms' external financial constraints affect their tax avoidance strategies. Using confidential IRS tax audit data, we also show that financially constrained firms subsequently have higher IRS tax audit adjustments. Overall, the linguistic cues in firms' qualitative disclosure provide incremental information beyond traditional accounting variables or commonly used effective tax rates to reveal and predict tax aggressiveness, both contemporaneously and in the future.
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A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments
Greg Kaplan & Giovanni Violante
Econometrica, July 2014, Pages 1199–1239
Abstract:
A wide body of empirical evidence finds that approximately 25 percent of fiscal stimulus payments (e.g., tax rebates) are spent on nondurable household consumption in the quarter that they are received. To interpret this fact, we develop a structural economic model where households can hold two assets: a low-return liquid asset (e.g., cash, checking account) and a high-return illiquid asset that carries a transaction cost (e.g., housing, retirement account). The optimal life-cycle pattern of portfolio choice implies that many households in the model are “wealthy hand-to-mouth”: they hold little or no liquid wealth despite owning sizable quantities of illiquid assets. Therefore, they display large propensities to consume out of additional transitory income, and small propensities to consume out of news about future income. We document the existence of such households in data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. A version of the model parameterized to the 2001 tax rebate episode yields consumption responses to fiscal stimulus payments that are in line with the evidence, and an order of magnitude larger than in the standard “one-asset” framework. The model's nonlinearities with respect to the rebate size and the prevailing aggregate economic conditions have implications for policy design.
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Cognitive Biases in Government Procurement – An Experimental Study
Omer Dekel & Amos Schurr
Review of Law & Economics, July 2014, Pages 169–200
Abstract:
Competitive bidding (CB) is the dominant governmental contracting mechanism by which hundreds of billions of dollars are allocated annually. We claim that when bid evaluators assess the qualitative components of competing bids while being exposed to the bid prices, a systematic bias occurs that gives an unjust advantage to the lower bidder. We term this the Lower-Bid Bias. It is then shown that this bias can be neutralized by splitting the evaluation process into two stages, whereby bid price is revealed only after the evaluation process has culminated (two-stage CB). This is demonstrated through the findings of a survey and three controlled experiments, the first to be conducted with procurement officials. We also explain why this bias is undesirable and suggest a mandatory rule, requiring two-stage CB for any competitive public procurement based on evaluation criteria other than price. Further applications of the experiments’ findings are also discussed.
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U.S. State Fiscal Policy and Natural Resources
Alexander James
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
An analytical framework predicts that, in response to an exogenous increase in resource-based government revenue, a benevolent government will partially substitute away from taxing income, increase spending and save. Forty-two years of U.S.-state level data are consistent with this theory. A baseline fixed effects model predicts that a 1% point increase in resource revenue results in a .20% point decrease in non-resource revenue, a .50% point increase in spending and a .30% point increase in savings. These results are generally robust to alternative model specifications and the instrumentation of resource-based government revenue.
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Isaac William Martin & Monica Prasad
Annual Review of Sociology, 2014, Pages 331-345
Abstract:
This article reviews recent research in fiscal sociology. We specifically examine contributions to the study of taxation that illuminate core issues in the sociology of contemporary capitalism, including the causes of poverty and inequality in rich countries and of inequality between rich and poor countries. Research on developed countries suggests that tax policy changes are important for explaining rising income inequality, tax policies may structure durable inequalities of race and gender, and earnings-conditional tax subsidies may alleviate poverty more effectively and with less stigma than means-tested social spending. Scholars also find the most generous welfare states rely the most heavily on regressive taxes, although there is disagreement over how this association arises. Comparative research on developing countries shows consumption taxes are more conducive to growth than taxes on income, tax-financed spending benefits growth if it is spent on productive investments, and taxation strengthened democracy and state building in medieval and early modern Europe. However, there is disagreement as to whether taxation contributes to state building in contemporary developing countries and whether foreign aid undermines democracy by undermining taxation. These questions are the focus of considerable current research.
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Isa Camyar
Journal of Politics, July 2014, Pages 725-739
Abstract:
This research examines the economic impact of partisan politics at a level that has been neglected in prior research: the firm level. Specifically, I investigate the impact of partisan supply-side policies on firm performance and firm heterogeneity in experience of this impact. I claim that parties’ supply-side strategies (the interventionist strategy of left-wing parties and the market-oriented strategy of right-wing parties) have conflicting implications for the productivity and cost of economic factors at the disposal of firms. My empirics employ firm-level data from 21 advanced industrial democracies for the period extending from 1989 to 2008. The results are counterintuitive and, in some ways, even provocative. I find that (1) firms perform better under left-oriented governments compared to right-oriented governments, suggesting that the interventionist strategy of left-wing parties helps firms better than the market-oriented strategy of right-wing parties; and (2) there is considerable firm heterogeneity in exposure to partisan supply-side strategies.
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Government size, composition of public expenditure, and economic development
Susana Martins & Francisco José Veiga
International Tax and Public Finance, August 2014, Pages 578-597
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effects of government size and of the composition of public expenditure on economic development. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models, on a sample covering up to 156 countries and 5-year periods from 1980 to 2010, we find that government size as a percentage of GDP has a quadratic (inverted U-shaped) effect on the growth rate of the Human Development Index (HDI). This effect is especially pronounced in developed and high-income countries. We also find that the composition of public expenditure affects development, with the share of five subcomponents exhibiting nonlinear relationships with HDI growth.
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The Impact of Subnational Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth: A Dynamic Analysis Approach
Arwiphawee Srithongrung & Kenneth Kriz
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
Much previous research has analyzed the effect of state and local taxes and expenditures on economic growth, but usually in a static manner. In this paper, we use panel vector autoregression (PVAR) to examine the effects of taxes and expenditures on state income growth. This methodology allows us to treat all variables in the model as endogenously determined. Our approach allows us to address the endogeneity problem inherent in fiscal policy research as well as to obtain results for both the short term and intermediate term (up to six years). Consistent with prevailing wisdom, taxes are shown to have a negative effect on economic growth, but the effect only is present in the short run. Public capital spending has a positive effect on growth in both the short and intermediate terms. Operational expenditures exhibit positive effects on growth over the entire analysis period.
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Who Benefits from State Corporate Tax Cuts? A Local Labor Markets Approach with Heterogeneous Firms
Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Owen Zidar
NBER Working Paper, July 2014
Abstract:
This paper estimates the incidence of state corporate taxes on workers, landowners, and firm owners in a spatial equilibrium model in which corporate taxes affect the location choices of both firms and workers. Heterogeneous, location-specific productivities and preferences determine the mobility of firms and workers, respectively. Owners of monopolistically competitive firms receive economic profits and may bear the incidence of corporate taxes as heterogeneous productivity can make them inframarginal in their location choices. We derive a simple expression for equilibrium incidence as a function of a few estimable parameters. Using variation in state corporate tax rates and apportionment rules, we estimate the reduced-form effects of tax changes on firm and worker location decisions, wages, and rental costs. We then use minimum distance methods to recover the parameters that determine equilibrium incidence as a function of these reduced-form effects. In contrast to previous assumptions of infinitely mobile firms and perfectly immobile workers, we find that firms are only approximately twice as mobile as workers over a ten-year period. This fact, along with equilibrium impacts on the housing market, implies that firm owners bear roughly 40% of the incidence, while workers and land owners bear 35% and 25%, respectively. Finally, we derive revenue-maximizing state corporate tax rates and discuss interactions with other local taxes and apportionment formulae.
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Taxes on the Internet: Deterrence Effects of Public Disclosure
Erlend Bø, Joel Slemrod & Thor Thoresen
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although Norway has a long tradition of public disclosure of tax filings, starting in 2001 anyone with Internet access could obtain individual information on income and income taxes paid. We examine the effect on income reporting of this change in the degree of public disclosure, making use of the fact that prior to 2001 in some municipalities tax information was distributed widely through locally produced paper catalogs. We find an approximately 3 percent higher average increase in reported income among business owners living in areas where the switch to Internet disclosure represented a large change in access.
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David Agrawal & William Hoyt
University of Georgia Working Paper, June 2014
Abstract:
We examine the effects of differences in income tax rates on commuting times within multi-state MSAs. Our theoretical model introduces a border into a model of an urban area and shows that differences in average tax rates distort commute times and interstate commutes. Empirically examining multi-state MSAs allows us to exploit tax policy discontinuities while holding fixed other characteristics. We identify large effects on commuting times for affluent households and homeowners in MSAs in which taxes are based on the state of residence. We discuss how the model and empirical design can be used to study other policy differences.
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House Price Gains and U.S. Household Spending from 2002 to 2006
Atif Mian & Amir Sufi
NBER Working Paper, May 2014
Abstract:
We examine the effect of rising U.S. house prices on borrowing and spending from 2002 to 2006. There is strong heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to borrow and spend. Households in low income zip codes aggressively liquefy home equity when house prices rise, and they increase spending substantially. In contrast, for the same rise in house prices, households living in high income zip codes are unresponsive, both in their borrowing and spending behavior. The entire effect of housing wealth on spending is through borrowing, and, under certain assumptions, this spending represents 0.8% of GDP in 2004 and 1.3% of GDP in 2005 and 2006. Households that borrow and spend out of housing gains between 2002 and 2006 experience significantly lower income and spending growth after 2006.
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Byron Lutz
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do low property taxes attract new home construction? This question is answered using a large shock to property tax burdens caused by an unusual school finance reform in the state of New Hampshire. The estimates suggest that, in most of the state, communities with a reduced tax burden experience a substantial increase in residential construction. In the area of the state near the region's primary urban center (Boston), however, the shock clears through a price adjustment — i.e. by capitalizing into property values. The differing responses are attributed to differing housing supply elasticities.
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Richard Cebula & J.R. Clark
Applied Economics, Fall 2014, Pages 3836-3848
Abstract:
This study of the impact of economic freedom, regulatory quality and the relative burden of taxation on the level of per capita real income/GDP among OECD nations over the period 2003 to 2007 adopts a modified version of the overall economic freedom index computed by the Heritage Foundation (2013), one with the fiscal freedom and business freedom indices removed. This study then provides panel least squares fixed-effects estimates for five linear specifications/models. Each nation during this time frame can be regarded either as a nation per se or as a de facto ‘economic region’ within the OECD. The analysis first focuses upon all of the OECD nations and then, as a robustness test, subsequently focuses only on non-G8 OECD member nations. The estimations in this study all provide strong empirical support for the three central hypotheses proffered here, namely: (1) the higher the overall degree of economic freedom, the higher the per capita real income (GDP) level; (2) the higher the level of regulatory quality, the higher the level of per capita real income (GDP) and (3) the higher the overall tax burden, expressed as a per cent of GDP, the lower is the level of per capita real income (GDP).
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Tax Avoidance and Business Location in a State Border Model
Shawn Rohlin, Stuart Rosenthal & Amanda Ross
Journal of Urban Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Previous studies have struggled to demonstrate that higher taxes deter business activity. We revisit this issue by estimating the effect of changes over time in cross-border differences in state tax conditions on the tendency for new establishments to favor one side of a state border over the other. Identification is enhanced by taking account of previously overlooked reciprocal agreements that require workers to pay income tax to their state of residence as opposed to their state of employment. When reciprocal agreements are in force, higher personal income tax rates lure companies from across the border, while corporate income tax and sales tax rates have the opposite effect. Where reciprocal agreements are not in place, the results are largely reversed. These patterns are amplified in heavily developed locations, and differ in anticipated ways by industry and corporate/non-corporate status of the establishment. Overall, results strengthen the view that state-level tax policies do affect the location decisions of entrepreneurs and new business activity, but not in a way that lends itself to a one-size-fits-all summary.
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Traffic Congestion’s Economic Impacts: Evidence from US Metropolitan Regions
Matthias Sweet
Urban Studies, August 2014, Pages 2088-2110
Abstract:
Traffic congestion alleviation has long been a common core transport policy objective, but it remains unclear under which conditions this universal byproduct of urban life also impedes the economy. Using panel data for 88 US metropolitan statistical areas, this study estimates congestion’s drag on employment growth (1993 to 2008) and productivity growth per worker (2001 to 2007). Using instrumental variables, results suggest that congestion slows job growth above thresholds of approximately 4.5 minutes of delay per one-way auto commute and 11,000 average daily traffic (ADT) per lane on average across the regional freeway network. While higher ADT per freeway lane appears to slow productivity growth, there is no evidence of congestion-induced travel delay impeding productivity growth. Results suggest that the strict policy focus on travel time savings may be misplaced and, instead, better outlooks for managing congestion’s economic drag lie in prioritising the economically most important trips (perhaps through road pricing) or in providing alternative travel capacity to enable access despite congestion.
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Johannes Abeler & Simon Jäger
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
How does tax complexity affect people’s reaction to tax changes? To answer this question, we conduct an experiment in which subjects work for a piece rate and face taxes. One treatment features a simple, the other a complex tax system. The payoff-maximizing output level and the incentives around this optimum are, however, identical across treatments. We introduce the same sequence of additional taxes in both treatments. Subjects in the complex treatment underreact to new taxes; some ignore new taxes entirely. The underreaction is stronger for subjects with lower cognitive ability. Contrary to predictions from models of rational inattention, subjects are equally likely to ignore large or small incentive changes.
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Discontinuity of Output Convergence within the United States: Why Has the Course Changed?
Chi-Young Choi & Xiaojun Wang
Economic Inquiry, forthcoming
Abstract:
Has the progress of output convergence changed within the United States? This article examines the output convergence among U.S. states for the last five decades by making several improvements over the extant literature. By applying a battery of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real output per worker data (i.e., nominal values deflated by state-level price), we find that output convergence has not been a feature of the continental United States since the 1970s. Instead, output convergence has proceeded among four subgroups within which constituent states have certain characteristics in common. Our regression analysis suggests that state-level characteristics related to technology and human capital play a crucial role in accounting for the formation and composition of convergence clubs, in agreement with the recent theoretical models of growth and development (e.g., Aghion et al. 2009; Gennaioli et al. 2013b). The level of technology, proxied by patents, turns out to be a consistently significant determinant even after controlling for endogeneity, suggesting that frictions in the diffusion of technology and human capital may have led to clustering of states with different levels of productivity. Our results therefore cast doubt on the common view that diffusion of knowledge and technology across state borders is frictionless.