More for Parents
The Impact of a Prototypical Home Visiting Program on Child Skills
Jin Zhou et al.
Journal of Labor Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper develops and applies a new framework for estimating the causal impacts on child skills and the mechanisms producing these impacts using data from a large-scale randomized controlled study of a widely evaluated early-childhood home visiting program. We compare estimates from procedures that report treatment effects as unweighted averages of item scores with estimates adjusting for item difficulties. We generalize item response theory and Rasch model frameworks and estimate vectors of individual-level latent skills, comparing treatment and control group skills and their impacts on test scores. The program substantially improves multiple skills.
Family Formation and the Great Recession
Garrett Anstreicher
Journal of Labor Research, December 2025, Pages 77-115
Abstract:
This paper studies how exposure to recessions as a young adult impacts long-term family formation in the context of the Great Recession. Using confidential linked survey data from U.S. Census, I document that exposure to a 1 pp larger unemployment shock in the Great Recession in one's early 20s is associated with a 0.8 pp decline in likelihood of marriage by their early 30s. These effects are not explained by substitution toward cohabitation with unmarried partners, are concentrated among whites, and are notably absent for individuals from high-income families. The estimated effects on fertility are also negative but imprecisely estimated. A back-of-the-envelope exercise using literature estimates of consumption equivalence scales suggests that these reductions in family formation may have increased the long-run impact of the Recession on consumption relative to its impact on individual earnings by a considerable extent.
Gender-role identity in adolescence and women fertility in adulthood
Carlos Bethencourt & Daniel Santos
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, December 2025
Abstract:
This paper investigates how adolescent exposure to peers from larger or smaller families influences women's fertility decisions later in life. We distinguish between the extensive margin (whether to become a mother) and the intensive margin (how many children to have), using quasi-random variation in peers' number of siblings across school-grade cohorts as an identification strategy. Our findings reveal that while exposure to peers with more siblings increases fertility at the intensive margin, it decreases the likelihood of becoming a mother at the extensive margin. We interpret this asymmetry through the lens of theory of economic identity: conforming to social norms entails costs, which are higher when deciding to enter motherhood than when choosing to expand an existing family. Further analysis reveals that adolescent social environments condition peer influence at the intensive margin. Specifically, maternal relationships, school connectedness, parental engagement, and exposure to working mothers shape how young women perceive the costs of conforming to fertility norms. Women with weaker parental and school ties are more susceptible to peer effects, while those exposed to working mothers among their peers perceive lower opportunity costs and are more likely to conform to high-fertility norms. These results underscore the differentiated nature of peer influence across fertility decisions and the critical role of adolescent contexts in shaping long-term demographic behavior.
The Fertility Effect of Laws Granting Undocumented Migrants Access to Driver's Licenses in the United States
Christian Gunadi
Journal of Human Capital, Winter 2025, Pages 665-684
Abstract:
As of 2021, 16 US states and the District of Columbia have implemented laws allowing undocumented migrants to acquire driver's licenses. In this paper, I hypothesize that lower barriers to work due to the ability to obtain driver's licenses can affect undocumented migrants' fertility decisions. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I find that these laws were associated with a decline in childbirth among likely undocumented married women. Further analysis suggests that the negative effect of the laws on likely undocumented women's fertility comes from the rise in the opportunity costs of childbearing, which, in turn (1) increases the usual hours worked among employed undocumented married women and (2) affects the selection into marriage.
Joint Child Custody and Interstate Migration
Abi Adams et al.
NBER Working Paper, December 2025
Abstract:
Joint custody following divorce is widespread, but implementation is costly when individuals live in different states and so affects interstate mobility. Migration of separated fathers has fallen significantly more than that of married fathers. We show the causal effect of joint custody using two strategies. First, we survey separated parents to elicit beliefs about the likelihood of interstate moves. Second, we use the staggered adoption of joint custody laws across US states, and show a reduction in actual migration of 11 percentage points for fathers. For mothers, there is no impact on mobility but suggestive evidence of beneficial labor market outcomes.