Makes you sick
Extreme opponents of genetically modified foods know the least but think they know the most
Philip Fernbach et al.
Nature Human Behaviour, forthcoming
Abstract:
There is widespread agreement among scientists that genetically modified foods are safe to consume and have the potential to provide substantial benefits to humankind. However, many people still harbour concerns about them or oppose their use. In a nationally representative sample of US adults, we find that as extremity of opposition to and concern about genetically modified foods increases, objective knowledge about science and genetics decreases, but perceived understanding of genetically modified foods increases. Extreme opponents know the least, but think they know the most. Moreover, the relationship between self-assessed and objective knowledge shifts from positive to negative at high levels of opposition. Similar results were obtained in a parallel study with representative samples from the United States, France and Germany, and in a study testing attitudes about a medical application of genetic engineering technology (gene therapy). This pattern did not emerge, however, for attitudes and beliefs about climate change.
Educational Disparities in Adult Mortality Across U.S. States: How Do They Differ, and Have They Changed Since the Mid-1980s?
Jennifer Karas Montez et al.
Demography, forthcoming
Abstract:
Adult mortality varies greatly by educational attainment. Explanations have focused on actions and choices made by individuals, neglecting contextual factors such as economic and policy environments. This study takes an important step toward explaining educational disparities in U.S. adult mortality and their growth since the mid-1980s by examining them across U.S. states. We analyzed data on adults aged 45-89 in the 1985-2011 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality File (721,448 adults; 225,592 deaths). We compared educational disparities in mortality in the early twenty-first century (1999-2011) with those of the late twentieth century (1985-1998) for 36 large-sample states, accounting for demographic covariates and birth state. We found that disparities vary considerably by state: in the early twenty-first century, the greater risk of death associated with lacking a high school credential, compared with having completed at least one year of college, ranged from 40 % in Arizona to 104 % in Maryland. The size of the disparities varies across states primarily because mortality associated with low education varies. Between the two periods, higher-educated adult mortality declined to similar levels across most states, but lower-educated adult mortality decreased, increased, or changed little, depending on the state. Consequently, educational disparities in mortality grew over time in many, but not all, states, with growth most common in the South and Midwest. The findings provide new insights into the troubling trends and disparities in U.S. adult mortality.
Multigenerational Effects of Early Life Health Shocks
Justin Cook, Jason Fletcher & Angela Forgues
NBER Working Paper, December 2018
Abstract:
A large literature has documented links between harmful early life exposures and later life health and socioeconomic deficits. These studies, however, are typically unable to examine the possibility that these shocks are transmitted to the next generation. Our study traces the impacts of in utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic on the outcomes of the children and grandchildren of those affected using representative survey data from the US. We find evidence of multigenerational effects on educational, economic, and health outcomes.
Gordon Tullock Meets Phineas Gage: The Political Economy of Lobotomies in the United States
Raymond March & Vincent Geloso
North Dakota State University Working Paper, November 2018
Abstract:
In the late 1940s, the United States experienced a “lobotomy boom” where the use of the lobotomy expanded exponentially. We engage in a comparative institutional analysis, following the framework developed by Tullock (2005), to explain why the lobotomy gained popularity and widespread use despite widespread scientific consensus it was ineffective. We argue that government provision and funding for public mental hospitals and asylums expanded and prolonged the use of the lobotomy. We support this claim by noting the lobotomy had virtually disappeared from private mental hospitals and asylums before the boom and was less used beforehand. This paper provides a more robust explanation for the lobotomy boom in the US and expands on the literate examining the relationship between state funding and scientific inquiry.
Alive or dead: Validity of the Social Security Administration Death Master File after 2011
Matthew Levin et al.
Health Services Research, February 2019, Pages 24-33
Objective: To determine the reliability of the Social Security Death Master File (DMF) after the November 2011 changes limiting the inclusion of state records.
Data Sources: Secondary data from the DMF, New York State (NYS) and New Jersey (NJ) Vital Statistics (VS), and institutional data warehouse.
Data Collection Methods: Patients matched to DMF using Social Security Number, or date of birth and Soundex algorithm. Patients matched to NY and NJ VS using probabilistic linking.
Principal Findings: 97 069 patients January 2007‐March 2016: 39 075 pre‐2011; 57 994 post‐2011. 3777 (3.9 percent) died in‐hospital. DMF sensitivity for in‐hospital death 88.9 percent (κ = 0.93) pre‐2011 vs 14.8 percent (κ = 0.25) post‐2011. DMF sensitivity for NY deaths 74.6 percent (κ = 0.71) pre‐2011 vs 26.6 percent (κ = 0.33) post‐2011. DMF sensitivity for NJ deaths 62.6 percent (κ = 0.64) pre‐2011 vs 10.8 percent (κ = 0.15) post‐2011. DMF sensitivity for out‐of‐hospital death 71.4 percent pre‐2011 (κ = 0.58) vs 28.9 percent post‐2011 (κ = 0.34). Post‐2011, 1‐year survival using DMF data was overestimated at 95.8 percent, vs 86.1 percent using NYS VS.
Conclusions: The DMF is no longer a reliable source of death data. Researchers using the DMF may underestimate mortality.
Impacts of Federal Prevention Funding on Reported Gonorrhea and Chlamydia Rates
Austin Williams, Kristen Kreisel & Harrell Chesson
American Journal of Preventive Medicine, forthcoming
Methods: In 2017-2018, finite distributed lag regression models were estimated to assess the impact of sexually transmitted infection prevention funding (in 2016 dollars per capita) on reported chlamydia rates from 2000 to 2016 and reported gonorrhea rates from 1981 to 2016. Including lagged funding measures allowed for assessing the impact of funding over time. Controls for state-level socioeconomic factors, such as poverty rates, were included.
Results: Results from the main model indicate that a 1% increase in annual funding would cumulatively decrease chlamydia and gonorrhea rates by 0.17% (p<0.10) and 0.33% (p<0.05), respectively. Results were similar when stratified by sex, with significant decreases in rates of reported chlamydia and gonorrhea in males of 0.33% and 0.34% (both p<0.05) respectively, and in rates of reported gonorrhea in females of 0.32% (p<0.05). The results were generally consistent across alternative model specifications and other robustness tests.
Scientific Expertise and Risk Aggregation
Thomas Boyer-Kassem
Philosophy of Science, January 2019, Pages 124-144
Abstract:
When scientists are asked to give expert advice on risk-related questions, such as the authorization of medical drugs, deliberation often does not eliminate all disagreements. I propose to model these remaining discrepancies as differences in risk assessments and/or in risk acceptability thresholds. The normative question I consider, then, is how the individual expert views should best be aggregated. I discuss what “best” could mean, with an eye to some robustness considerations. I argue that the majority rule, which is currently often used in expert panels, has significant drawbacks.
SES-of-Origin and BMI in Youth: Comparing Germany and Minnesota
Wendy Johnson et al.
Behavior Genetics, January 2019, Pages 24-48
Abstract:
Increasing obesity is a world-wide health concern. Its most commonly used indicator, body mass index (BMI), consistently shows considerable genetic and shared environmental variance throughout life, the latter particularly in youth. Several adult studies have observed less total and genetically influenced variance with higher attained SES. These studies offer clues about sources of the ‘obesity epidemic’ but analogous youth studies of SES-of-origin are needed. Genetic and environmental influences and moderating effects of SES may vary in countries with different health policies, lifestyles, and degrees/sources of social inequality, offering further clues to the sources of the obesity epidemic. We examined SES-of-origin moderation of BMI variance in the German TwinLife study’s cohorts assessed around ages 5, 11, 17, and 23-24, and in the Minnesota Twin Family Study’s (MTFS) 11- and 17-year-old birth cohorts assessed longitudinally around ages 11, 17, and 23-24, comparing male and female twins and their parents. Age for age, both sexes’ means and variances were greater in MTFS than in TwinLife. We observed that SES generally moderated genetic influences, more strongly in females, similar to most adult studies of attained-SES moderation of BMI. We interpreted differences in our SES-of-origin observations in light of inevitably-missing covariance between SES-of-origin and BMI in the models, mother-father and parent-offspring BMI correlations, and parental attained-SES-BMI correlations. We suggest that one source of the present obesity epidemic is social change that amplifies expression of genes both constraining SES attainment and facilitating weight gain.
Supermarket Access and Childhood Bodyweight: Evidence from Store Openings and Closings
Di Zeng et al.
Economics & Human Biology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Retail food environment is increasingly considered in relation to obesity. This study investigates the impacts of access to supermarkets, the primary source of healthy foods in the United States, on the bodyweight of children. Empirical analysis uses individual-level panel data covering health screenings of public schoolchildren from Arkansas with annual georeferenced business lists, and utilizes the variations of supermarket openings and closings. There is little overall impact in either case. However, supermarket openings are found to reduce the BMI z-scores of low-income children by 0.090 to 0.096 standard deviations. Such impact remains in a variety of robustness exercises. Therefore, improvement in healthy food access could at least help reduce childhood obesity rates among certain population groups.
The Cost-Effectiveness of Bike Share Expansion to Low-Income Communities in New York City
Wenya Yu et al.
Journal of Urban Health, December 2018, Pages 888-898
Abstract:
The “Citi Bike” bike share program in New York City is the largest bike share program in the USA. We ask whether expanding this program to lower-income communities is cost-effective means of encouraging exercise and reducing pollution in New York City. We built a stochastic Markov model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the Citi Bike expansion program, an effort to extend bike share to areas with higher costs and risks over a 10-year time horizon. We used one-way sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulation to test the model uncertainty. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the Citi Bike expansion program relative to the current program (status quo) was $7869/quality-adjusted life year gained. The Citi Bike expansion program in New York City offers good value relative to most health interventions.