Leaks
What Caused Racial Disparities in Particulate Exposure to Fall? New Evidence from the Clean Air Act and Satellite-Based Measures of Air Quality
Janet Currie, John Voorheis & Reed Walker
NBER Working Paper, January 2020
Abstract:
Racial differences in exposure to ambient air pollution have declined significantly in the United States over the past 20 years. This project links restricted-access Census Bureau microdata to newly available, spatially continuous high resolution measures of ambient particulate pollution (PM2.5) to examine the underlying causes and consequences of differences in black-white pollution exposures. We begin by decomposing differences in pollution exposure into components explained by observable population characteristics (e.g., income) versus those that remain unexplained. We then use quantile regression methods to show that a significant portion of the "unexplained" convergence in black-white pollution exposure can be attributed to differential impacts of the Clean Air Act (CAA) in non-Hispanic African American and non-Hispanic white communities. Areas with larger black populations saw greater CAA-related declines in PM2.5 exposure. We show that the CAA has been the single largest contributor to racial convergence in PM2.5 pollution exposure in the U.S. since 2000, accounting for over 60 percent of the reduction.
Inequality, Information Failures, and Air Pollution
Catherine Hausman & Samuel Stolper
NBER Working Paper, January 2020
Abstract:
Research spanning several disciplines has repeatedly documented disproportionate pollution exposure among the poor and communities of color. Among the various proposed causes of this pattern, those that have received the most attention are income inequality, discrimination, and firm costs (of inputs and regulatory compliance). We argue that an additional channel – information – is likely to play an important role in generating disparities in pollution exposure. We present multiple reasons for a tendency to underestimate pollution burdens, as well as empirical evidence that this underestimation can disproportionately affect low-income households. Using a model of housing choice, we then derive conditions under which “hidden” pollution leads to an inequality – even when all households face the same lack of information. This inequality arises because households sort according to known pollution and other disamenities, which we show are positively correlated with hidden pollution. To help bridge the gap between environmental justice and economics, we discuss the relationship between hidden information and three different distributional measures: exposure to pollution; exposure to hidden pollution; and welfare loss due to hidden pollution.
The Private and External Costs of Germany's Nuclear Phase-Out
Stephen Jarvis, Olivier Deschenes & Akshaya Jha
NBER Working Paper, December 2019
Abstract:
Many countries have phased out nuclear electricity production in response to concerns about nuclear waste and the risk of nuclear accidents. This paper examines the impact of the shutdown of roughly half of the nuclear production capacity in Germany after the Fukushima accident in 2011. We use hourly data on power plant operations and a novel machine learning framework to estimate how plants would have operated differently if the phase-out had not occurred. We find that the lost nuclear electricity production due to the phase-out was replaced primarily by coal-fired production and net electricity imports. The social cost of this shift from nuclear to coal is approximately 12 billion dollars per year. Over 70% of this cost comes from the increased mortality risk associated with exposure to the local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels. Even the largest estimates of the reduction in the costs associated with nuclear accident risk and waste disposal due to the phase-out are far smaller than 12 billion dollars.
Air Filters, Pollution and Student Achievement
Michael Gilraine
NYU Working Paper, January 2020
Abstract:
This paper identifies the achievement impact of installing air filters in classrooms for the first time. To do so, I leverage a unique setting arising from the largest gas leak in United States history, whereby the offending gas company installed air filters in every classroom, office and common area for all schools within five miles of the leak (but not beyond). This variation allows me to compare student achievement in schools receiving air filters relative to those that did not using a spatial regression discontinuity design. I find substantial improvements in student achievement: air filter exposure led to a 0.20 standard deviation increase in mathematics and English scores, with test score improvements persisting into the following year. Air testing conducted inside schools during the leak (but before air filters were installed) showed no presence of natural gas pollutants, implying that the effectiveness of air filters came from removing common air pollutants and so these results should extend to other settings. The results indicate that air filter installation is a highly cost-effective policy to raise student achievement and, given that underprivileged students attend schools in highly polluted areas, one that can reduce the pervasive test score gaps that plague public education.
Firm behavior and the evolution of activism: Strategic decisions and the emergence of protest in US communities
Alessandro Piazza & Fabrizio Perretti
Strategic Management Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
How do firms' strategic decisions affect the emergence and evolution of activism? We examine this question through a study of protests against nuclear power plants in the United States. We find that the decision to cancel construction of a nuclear unit — a substantial victory for activists — is associated with an upsurge in antinuclear protest activity, as emboldened activists stay mobilized even once the level of threat abates. We also find that when a firm decides to complete a nuclear power plant, thereby marking a defeat for activists, antinuclear protests wind down and we witness an increase in mobilization towards other causes. We discuss the implications of our findings for the study of the interaction between social movements and firms.
Increase in global emissions of HFC-23 despite near-total expected reductions
Kieran Stanley et al.
Nature Communications, January 2020
Abstract:
Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, new controls are being implemented to reduce emissions of HFC-23 (CHF3), a by-product during the manufacture of HCFC-22 (CHClF2). Starting in 2015, China and India, who dominate global HCFC-22 production (75% in 2017), set out ambitious programs to reduce HFC-23 emissions. Here, we estimate that these measures should have seen global emissions drop by 87% between 2014 and 2017. Instead, atmospheric observations show that emissions have increased and in 2018 were higher than at any point in history (15.9 ± 0.9 Gg yr−1). Given the magnitude of the discrepancy between expected and observation-inferred emissions, it is likely that the reported reductions have not fully materialized or there may be substantial unreported production of HCFC-22, resulting in unaccounted-for HFC-23 by-product emissions. The difference between reported and observation-inferred estimates suggests that an additional ~309 Tg CO2-equivalent emissions were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2017.
Ocean sentinel albatrosses locate illegal vessels and provide the first estimate of the extent of nondeclared fishing
Henri Weimerskirch et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
With threats to nature becoming increasingly prominent, in order for biodiversity levels to persist, there is a critical need to improve implementation of conservation measures. In the oceans, the surveillance of fisheries is complex and inadequate, such that quantifying and locating nondeclared and illegal fisheries is persistently problematic. Given that these activities dramatically impact oceanic ecosystems, through overexploitation of fish stocks and bycatch of threatened species, innovative ways to monitor the oceans are urgently required. Here, we describe a concept of “Ocean Sentinel” using animals equipped with state-of-the-art loggers which monitor fisheries in remote areas. Albatrosses fitted with loggers detecting and locating the presence of vessels and transmitting the information immediately to authorities allowed an estimation of the proportion of nondeclared fishing vessels operating in national and international waters of the Southern Ocean. We found that in international waters, more than one-third of vessels had no Automatic Identification System operating; in national Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), this proportion was lower on average, but variable according to EEZ. Ocean Sentinel was also able to provide unpreceded information on the attraction of seabirds to vessels, giving access to crucial information for risk-assessment plans of threatened species. Attraction differed between species, age, and vessel activity. Fishing vessels attracted more birds than other vessels, and juveniles both encountered fewer vessels and showed a lower attraction to vessels than adults. This study shows that the development of technologies offers the potential of implementing conservation policies by using wide-ranging seabirds to patrol oceans.
Hidden cost of conservation: A demonstration using losses from human-wildlife conflicts under a payments for ecosystem services program
Hongbo Yang et al.
Ecological Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
As global efforts to protect ecosystems expand, there is increasing concern about conservation costs borne by rural communities. To date, these costs have often been narrowly estimated in terms of foregone livelihood opportunities directly caused by conservation, while unintended human burdens that accrue with ecological gains from conservation are often ignored. As a first attempt to quantify this previously hidden cost, we estimated the impact of converting cropland to forest under one of the world’s largest conservation policies, China’s Grain-to-Green Program (GTGP), on crop raiding in a demonstration site using the matching approach. We found that GTGP afforestation was responsible for 64 % of the crop damage by wildlife on remaining cropland, a cost worth 27 % of GTGP’s total payment to farmers. Our study highlights that the conservation cost to communities through influencing human-wildlife conflicts can be substantial, which should be quantified and considered in global conservation efforts to avoid unintended burdens on rural communities.
Housing supply elasticity, gasoline prices, and residential property values
Adele Morris, Helen Neill & Edward Coulson
Journal of Housing Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We revise the standard monocentric city model to incorporate differential assumptions about the elasticity of housing supply in response to changes in transportation costs. We test the implications of the model with data from the Las Vegas metropolitan area and find that housing markets respond roughly the same in the face of increases and decreases in gas prices. Supply elasticity is evidently relatively elastic in response to both expansions and contractions, despite expectations that supply is much more inelastic when markets contract when gas prices increase. Simulating the effect of a 10% increase in gas prices from a carbon tax, we find that homes near the center of town rise on average $532 while homes beyond 5 miles fall on average $1,064. These findings are consistent with negative rent gradient results reported in Coulson and Engle (1987) and Larson and Zhao (2017).
Why Does Oil Matter? Commuting and Aggregate Fluctuations
Robert Ready, Nikolai Roussanov & Ewelina Zurowska
University of Pennsylvania Working Paper, November 2019
Abstract:
Oil price shocks are known to have a sizable macroeconomic impact, despite a relatively small fraction of total expenditures that is devoted to energy. Using micro data we document a significant effect of oil prices on labor supply and commuting distance, especially among low-skilled workers who face large commuting costs, relative to their wages. In addition, equity returns of firms in less skill-intensive industries are more sensitive to oil price fluctuations. Motivated by this empirical evidence, we employ a two-sector endogenous growth model with an oil-dependent commuting friction to examine the effect of oil shocks on employment, real wages, and growth, as well as equity prices. Negative oil supply shocks followed by oil price increases depress labor supply, especially in the less capital-intensive low-skill sector, where employment is most sensitive to the cost of commuting. As a result, output growth slows down in the medium run as innovation and capital are reallocated towards the less affected high-skill sector, resulting in subsequent rise in the skill premium.