Lawlessness
Sociotropic and Personal Threats and Authoritarian Reactions During COVID-19
Gizem Arikan
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, forthcoming
Abstract:
The authoritarianism literature is divided over whether perceived threats to normative social order (sociotropic threats) or threats to the individual’s well-being (personal threats) activate authoritarian predispositions. In addition, while some approaches claim that perceived threats primarily trigger those high in authoritarianism, others claim that those who are low in authoritarianism are more sensitive to threats. Given the centrality of authoritarianism and threat on support for extraordinary policies in the context of COVID-19, this article sought to test to what extent different types of threats moderated the effect of authoritarianism on support for tough law and order policies and harsh punishments to contain the spread of coronavirus. Data from two preregistered survey experiments indicates that those high in authoritarianism were more willing to support tough law and order policies when primed with sociotropic threats while those low in authoritarianism became more willing to support such policies when primed with personal threats.
“Lights and Sirens”: Variation in 911 Call-Taker Risk Appraisal and its Effects on Police Officer Perceptions at the Scene
Jessica Gillooly
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
Until now, 911 dispatch centers largely have been the “black box” of the criminal justice system. This article opens that black box. It documents systematically a new mechanism in the policing process: the degree to which a 911 call-taker's “alarmist” response to a call primes police officer perceptions at the scene. This study leverages the quasi-random assignment of 911 call-takers to calls and employs an instrumental variable approach novel to dispatch. The author focuses her analysis on call-for-service data (N = 20,764) involving mental health crises and public assaults — strategic sites for the investigation of call-taker discretion — from a dispatch center in Southeast Michigan and finds a statistically significant difference in the propensity of call-takers to classify the same types of calls as “high priority.” This variation, in turn, affects police perceptions. Calls for which call-taker assignment induces a high priority classification are about three times more likely to be classified as high priority by the police at the scene, relative to the mean of the dependent variable. Effects are strongest for calls involving mental health crises. The theoretical developments and empirical results presented here point to new areas for policy reform for policymakers and practitioners regarding the importance of training 911 call-takers in call triage and diversion.
The effect of the Seattle Police-Free CHOP zone on crime: A microsynthetic control evaluation
Eric Piza & Nathan Connealy
Criminology & Public Policy, February 2022, Pages 35-58
Abstract:
Nightly confrontations occurred between protestors and officers outside of the Seattle Police Department's (SPD's) East precinct in the aftermath of George Floyd's murder. On June 8, 2020, the SPD abandoned the East precinct in an attempt to calm the situation. Following closure of the precinct, the Capitol Hill Occupation Protest (CHOP) took hold in the surrounding 6-block area. The CHOP occupation lasted until July 1, 2020. Over this time period, CHOP operated as an autonomous zone, with police officers not patrolling and generally not responding to calls for police service within the area. We used the microsynthetic control group method to analyze the effect of CHOP on crime during the 24-day occupation. Results indicate crime significantly increased in the CHOP zone, the encompassing two-block area, and the overall East precinct service area.
The Long-Term Consequences of Imprisoning Our Youth: The Lasting Impact of Time Spent in Adult Jails and Prisons
Megan Kurlychek, Matthew Kijowski & Alysha Gagnon
Social Problems, forthcoming
Abstract:
We explore the possible deleterious lifelong impacts for youth who serve stints of incarceration in adult jails or prisons. Our study uses a sample of all youth ages 16 and 17 arrested in New York State in 1987 and follows their criminal careers for 24 years. New York was selected as the state processed, not just some, but all youth of this age as adults, allowing us to overcome issues of selection bias and to use natural variation to create a propensity score matched sample to compare similar youth who either were, or who were not, subject to this punishment. Findings reveal that youth who spent time in an adult jail or prison recidivate more often, more quickly, and commit more total offenses. We also find that being offered youthful offender status, a status that removes the public stigma of a criminal record, reduces recidivism, regardless of the incarceration experience. Our study is situated in theories of deterrence, social learning, and labeling, and we apply our findings to greater societal implications of subjecting youth to punishments traditionally reserved for mature adults.
Community policing on American Indian reservations: A preliminary investigation
Adam Crepelle et al.
Journal of Institutional Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
In the 1970s, Elinor Ostrom and her colleagues found that neighborhood policing works better than metropolitan policing. Though Ostrom articulated design principles for self-governance, the early studies of neighborhood policing did not. In this paper, we articulate the design principles for self-governing policing, which we term Ostrom-Compliant Policing. We then apply this framework to an understudied case: policing on American Indian reservations. Policing in Indian country generally falls into one of three categories – federal policing (by the Bureau of Indian Affairs and Federal Bureau of Investigation), state policing (by municipal and state police departments), and tribal policing (by tribal police departments) – that vary in the degree of centralization. Our main contribution is to show that tribal policing as it is practiced in the United States, which claims to be self-governing, is not Ostrom-Compliant. Thus, our approach offers insight into why high crime remains an ongoing challenge in much of Indian country even when tribes have primary control over policing outcomes. This does not mean centralization is better, or that self-governance of policing does not work. Rather, our research suggests that a greater tribal autonomy over-policing and meta-political changes to federal rules governing criminal jurisdictions is necessary to implement Ostromian policing.
Assessing the impact of de-escalation training on police behavior: Reducing police use of force in the Louisville, KY Metro Police Department
Robin Engel et al.
Criminology & Public Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Changing police use of force policies and training to incorporate de-escalation tactics is one of the most routinely recommended police reform measures. Despite widespread promotion and proliferation of de-escalation trainings, to date, no research has empirically demonstrated that these trainings reduce use of force in the field (Engel, R. S., McManus, H. D., & Herold, T. D., 2020). Therefore, it is unknown if de-escalation trainings actually reduce force, have no impact, or have unintended consequences that possibly increase injuries to officers or citizens. We collaborated with the Louisville Metro Police Department (LMPD) in 2019 to evaluate the impact of the Integrating Communications, Assessment, and Tactics (ICAT) de-escalation training developed by the Police Executive Research Forum. Using a stepped-wedge randomized controlled trial research design, the panel regression results demonstrated statistically significant reductions in use of force incidents (−28.1%), citizen injuries (−26.3%), and officer injuries (−36.0%) in the post-training period. These significant reductions were larger than any changes in LMPD arrest patterns during the same period. Other possible time-based confounders were also considered; the combined analyses show robust, consistent, and immediate impacts on use of force counts after training.
Analysis of “Stand Your Ground” Self-defense Laws and Statewide Rates of Homicides and Firearm Homicides
Michelle Degli Esposti et al.
JAMA Network Open, February 2022
Design, Setting, and Participants:
This cohort study used a controlled, multiple-baseline and -location interrupted time series design, using natural variation in the timings and locations of SYG laws to assess associations. Changes in homicide and firearm homicide were modeled using Poisson regression analyses within a generalized additive model framework. Analyses included all US states that enacted SYG laws between 2000 and 2016 and states that did not have SYG laws enacted during the full study period, 1999 to 2017. Data were analyzed from November 2019 to December 2020.
Results:
Forty-one states were analyzed, including 23 states that enacted SYG laws during the study period and 18 states that did not have SYG laws, with 248 358 homicides (43.7% individuals aged 20-34 years; 77.9% men and 22.1% women), including 170 659 firearm homicides. SYG laws were associated with a mean national increase of 7.8% in monthly homicide rates (incidence rate ratio [IRR],1.08; 95% CI, 1.04-1.12; P < .001) and 8.0% in monthly firearm homicide rates (IRR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.13; P = .002). SYG laws were not associated with changes in the negative controls of suicide (IRR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98-1.01) or firearm suicide (IRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.98-1.02). Increases in violent deaths varied across states, with the largest increases (16.2% to 33.5%) clustering in the South (eg, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana). There were no differential associations of SYG laws by demographic group.
Neighborhoods, Schools, and Adolescent Violence: Ecological Relative Deprivation, Disadvantage Saturation, or Cumulative Disadvantage?
Nicolo Pinchak & Raymond Swisher
Journal of Youth and Adolescence, February 2022, Pages 261–277
Abstract:
Neighborhood and school socioeconomic “disadvantage” are consequential for youth violence perpetration. This study considers alternative ecological cumulative disadvantage, disadvantage saturation, and relative deprivation hypotheses regarding how the association between neighborhood disadvantage and violence varies by levels of socioeconomic disadvantage in schools. These hypotheses are tested with data from Wave I of Add Health (n = 15,581; 51% Female; Age mean = 15.67, SD = 1.74). Cross-classified multilevel Rasch models are used to estimate the interaction between neighborhood and school disadvantage in predicting adolescent violence. Consistent with the ecological relative deprivation hypothesis, results indicate that the association between neighborhood disadvantage and violence is most pronounced among youth attending low-disadvantage schools. Further, youth exposed to high-disadvantage neighborhoods and low-disadvantage schools tend to be at the greatest risk of perpetrating violence. These patterns are evident among both males and females, and particularly among older youth and those from low-parent education families. This study motivates future investigations considering how adolescents’ experiences beyond the neighborhood shape how they engage with and experience the effects of their neighborhoods.
Peer Effects and Recidivism: The Role of Race and Age
Kegon Teng Kok Tan & Mariyana Zapryanova
Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, forthcoming
Abstract:
Recidivism rates are a growing concern due to the high cost of imprisonment and the high rate of ex-prisoners returning back to prison. One policy-relevant and potentially important determinant of recidivism is the composition of peer inmates. In this paper, we study the role of peer effects within a correctional facility using data on almost 80,000 individuals serving time in Georgia. We exploit randomness in peer-composition over time within prisons to identify effects of peers on recidivism rates. We find no evidence of peer effects for property or drug-related crimes in the general prison population. However, we find strong peer effects when we define peer groups by race and age. Our findings indicate that homophily plays a large part in determining the strength of peer exposure among prisoners in the same facility. These results suggest that prison assignments can be used to reduce recidivism for particular groups of prisoners.
Child Access Prevention Laws and Firearm Storage: Results From a National Survey
Matthew Miller et al.
American Journal of Preventive Medicine, March 2022, Pages 333-340
Introduction: Child Access Prevention Negligent Storage (CAP-NS) laws seek to reduce pediatric firearm injury by imposing sanctions on gun owners if children gain access to unlocked guns. Whether these laws affect the storage behavior they aim to encourage is not known because historical panel data on firearm storage do not exist. As a result, assessing how much, if at all, firearm storage changed because of CAP-NS laws requires an indirect approach.
Methods:
Data for this study came from a web-based survey conducted by the research firm Ipsos from July 30, 2019 to August 11, 2019. Respondents were adult gun owners drawn from an online sampling frame comprising approximately 55,000 U.S. adults recruited using address-based sampling methods to be representative of the U.S. population. The primary outcome was the proportion of gun owners in CAP-NS versus non-CAP-NS states who had ≥1 unlocked firearm. Estimates are presented by CAP-NS status, for gun owners overall and for those who live with children, before and after adjusting for potential confounders. Data were analyzed in 2021.
Results:
In adjusted analyses, gun owners in CAP-NS states were no more likely to lock firearms than were those in states without these laws. In addition, most gun owners reported not knowing whether they lived in a state with a CAP-NS law.
Austerity, welfare cuts and hate crime: Evidence from the UK's Age of Austerity
Kerry Bray, Nils Braakmann & John Wildman
Journal of Urban Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
From 2010 the UK entered an ‘age of austerity’, with major cuts to welfare payments. We study the link between these cuts and increases in hate crimes. Using a panel of 313 Community Safety Partnerships areas in England and Wales, we show that for each £100 loss per working age adult, racially or religiously motivated crimes rose by approximately 5-6% in 2013/14 and 2014/15. These effects are large given a mean loss of £450 per working age adult and survive multiple robustness checks. Using individual data, we find no evidence that these crimes are driven by increased anger of the benefit recipients per se but find evidence for a decline in community cohesion.