Inflated Regimes
Pro-Democratic, but Not Anti-Authoritarian? Understanding Ambivalent Attitudes Toward Regimes
Calvert Jones & Michael Cowan
Comparative Political Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do those who support democracy also oppose autocracy, and vice versa? Intuitively, the answer is yes, given that these are contradictory regime types, and scholars often construct a bipolar index for analytic purposes. Yet our investigation of the latest wave of the World Values Survey (WVS) demonstrates that a plurality of citizens worldwide now support both democracy and autocracy, and this ambivalent camp has been growing. We further investigate who is ambivalent and why. Using WVS, we identify broad predictors of ambivalence globally, including knowledge gaps and value orientations. To improve causal inference and explore broader implications, we also conduct a preregistered survey experiment with a nationally representative sample of U.S. respondents. Findings suggest a powerful and underappreciated role for civic education to ameliorate ambivalence, particularly by clarifying the contrast space across regime types. More troublingly, they also reveal a strong association between ambivalence and openness to democratic backsliding.
Conflict exposure and democratic values: Evidence from wartime Ukraine
Kristin Bakke, Marianne Dahl & Kit Rickard
Journal of Peace Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
How do experiences of violence in war shape ordinary people’s commitment to democratic principles? Wars often lead to a temporary suspension of democratic rights, yet extant research suggests that wartime violence can both strengthen and undermine support for democracy. We argue that these effects vary across different dimensions of democracy. Drawing on public opinion surveys fielded in Ukraine in October 2022 and July 2024, amidst the ongoing war with Russia, we examine how experiences of wartime violence affect people’s commitment to protecting three core liberal democracy principles: minority rights, freedom of speech, and free and fair elections. Our most consistent finding is that individuals who have been physically injured or lost a close family member or friend are less likely to be supportive of safeguarding the protection of minority rights. We find weaker, though still suggestive, evidence that such experiences are also related to attitudes toward freedom of speech. By contrast, experiences of wartime violence do not systematically influence views on safeguarding free and fair elections. These results speak to democratic resilience in Ukraine but underscore the importance of assessing individual democratic principles -- rather than democracy in the abstract -- as experiences of violence may impact different dimensions of democracy differently.
The effects of forced versus selective exposure to propaganda in China
Xiaoxiao Shen
Political Science Research and Methods, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article describes how and why propaganda affected recipients differently in two distinct situations, namely forced exposure and selective exposure, when they received propaganda during a series of six original survey experiments conducted in China. The prevailing view is that people are more likely to resist information they receive if their exposure to it is forced. But the study addressed in this article found that citizens who prefer not to view propaganda news, when given a choice, actually demonstrate higher average treatment effects on pro-regime attitudes compared to those who willingly read propaganda news (i.e. where participants in the control group were assigned a reading of non-propaganda news). Moreover, this study shows that participants who prefer not to read propaganda news exhibit higher average treatment effects when rating the issue presented in the news as more understandable and important -- compared to those who willingly engage with the propaganda. That suggests a possible rationalization pathway in this phenomenon.
The Personalist Penalty: Varieties of Autocracy and Economic Growth
Christopher Blattman, Scott Gehlbach & Zeyang Yu
NBER Working Paper, August 2025
Abstract:
Studies of income and regime type typically contrast democracies and autocracies, ignoring heterogeneity in the character of authoritarian regimes. We focus on the consequences of personalist rule, where power is concentrated in an individual or small elite. Extending the dynamic panel strategy of Acemoglu, Naidu, Restrepo, and Robinson (2019), we estimate the differential growth performance of democracies, institutionalized autocracies, and personalist autocracies. Across eight GDP series, eight autocracy codings, and six measures of personalism, we observe a consistent pattern: Whenever an "autocratic penalty" emerges, it is concentrated in personalist regimes. The growth performance of institutionalized dictatorships, in contrast, is statistically indistinguishable from that of democracies. We document evidence that the "personalist penalty" is driven by some combination of low private investment, poor public-goods provision, and conflict. These findings emphasize the analytic payoff of unpacking autocracy and highlight the different incentives facing leaders with narrow and broad bases of power.
The strongman phenomenon: Unpacking the role of subjective class
Seungwoo Han
Politics, Groups, and Identities, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study examines the relationship between subjective class identification and support for strongman leadership in the context of rising inequality and democratic backsliding. While existing research links economic discontent to authoritarian or populist preferences, less attention has been paid to how individuals’ perceived socio-economic position shapes attitudes toward leadership that challenges democratic norms. Drawing on World Values Survey data (1994–2022), the analysis tests whether subjective class position predicts support for strongman figures who seek to bypass institutional constraints and centralize authority. The results reveal a consistent pattern: individuals identifying as middle class are significantly less likely to favor strongman leadership, whereas those who perceive themselves at the lower or upper ends of the class spectrum show greater authoritarian inclinations. This asymmetry suggests that political preferences are shaped not only by material conditions but also by relative interpretations of social standing. To account for these patterns, this study proposes three mechanisms: status preservation among the upper class, symbolic reassurance among the lower class, and democratic alignment among the middle class grounded in perceived stability. By foregrounding subjective class perceptions, this study contributes to broader debates on democratic resilience and the political consequences of perceived inequality.
Did Industrialization increase support for the radical left? Evidence from the 1917 Russian revolution
Paul Castañeda Dower & Andrei Markevich
Journal of Comparative Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We analyze the 1917 Constituent Assembly elections -- the only free universal elections in Russia before the 1990s -- to estimate the effect of industrialization on the radicalization of the electorate in a late industrializing economy. Our empirical strategy exploits IV estimation based on the proximity of Carboniferous strata and other initial conditions of industrialization. We find that a larger share of industrial workers increases voting for the radical left, and the effect is stronger in places that exhibited more pronounced features of late industrialization. We also show that industrialization increases electoral polarization rather than simply shifting the electorate to the left.
Economic Sanctions and the Distribution of State Capacity in Target Countries: A Disaggregated Analysis of Developing States
Jerry Urtuzuastigui
International Studies Quarterly, September 2025
Abstract:
Do economic sanctions impact subnational state capacity within developing target states? Building on prior research, I begin with the notion that after sanctions are imposed, a target regime is compelled to alter capacity-related government spending to preserve its hold on power. However, drawing on the territorial politics literature, I contend that the reallocation of dwindling revenues is a distinct spatial phenomenon, a form of redistribution that strengthens local-level administrative and coercive capacity in the geographic center of power but at the expense of targets’ reach into more peripheral regions of the state. To evaluate my theory, I employ a disaggregated analysis that combines new sanctions data with geolocated data on capital distance and subnational state capacity. Directly in line with my theory, I find that upon the imposition of economic sanctions, state capacity becomes more robust in the capital; this effect becomes less intense as capital distance increases, leading to a significant decrease in state capacity in the periphery. These findings are robust to various methodological, model, and variable specifications.
The Survival of the Royals
Joan Costa-Font, Alberto Batinti & Vasuprada Shandar
Kyklos, forthcoming
Abstract:
We study the effect of royalty status - historically rooted legal privilege enjoyed by hereditary monarchs - on human longevity, a proxy of individuals’ health capital. We disentangle royalty status that encompassed serving as heads of state, and hence subject to status-related stress, from other family members alongside their contemporary countrymen. We exploit a dataset containing relevant demographic data and specifically the lifespan (age at death) of European Royals and their families spanning the past three centuries (1669 to 2022) from the sixteen European countries, including information for 845 high-status nobility and relative monarchs which is compared to otherwise similar countrymen by adjusting for relevant confounders. We document robust evidence of a statistically significant gap in life expectancy between monarchs and other members of the royal family, as well as between monarchs and the general population of an average of 5.2 to 7.1 years longer than their contemporaneous countrymen.
Magical Practices and Indiscriminate Violence in Armed Conflicts
Michael Soules, Nazli Avdan & Kathryn Howarth
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, forthcoming
Abstract:
How do magical practices affect the violent behavior of rebel groups? Using existing data, we examine the impact of magical practices on rebels’ use of indiscriminate violence in armed conflicts. We argue that magical beliefs and practices increase the expected utility of using indiscriminate violence as a tool of intimidation; facilitate the vilification of civilians, legitimating their status as targets; and socialize recruits in a way that motivates their use of indiscriminate violence. We expand on existing research about religion and political violence by showing how non-traditional spiritual beliefs and practices shape group tactics and amplify violence against civilians.