In trouble
Do We Have It All Wrong? The Protective Roles of Peers and Criminogenic Risks From Family During Prison Reentry
Thomas Mowen & John Boman
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
Prior work on the process of reentry from prison has highlighted the pivotal role that family and peers play during reintegration. Families are traditionally understood as important protective mechanisms against recidivism whereas peers are typically viewed as primarily criminogenic. Yet, drawing from differential coercion and social support theory, family and peer relationships can both be supportive (and protect against recidivism) and coercive (and contribute to recidivism). Using four waves of data from the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative, results of mixed-effects models demonstrate that family, but not peer, coercion relates to increased odds of reincarceration. Peer, but not family, social support relates to decreased odds of reincarceration. Findings suggest families are primarily criminogenic, whereas peers are protective during reentry.
Using the Synthetic Control Method to Determine the Effects of Concealed Carry Laws on State-Level Murder Rates
Mark Gius
International Review of Law and Economics, March 2019, Pages 1-11
Abstract:
The purpose of the present study is to determine the relationship between concealed carry (CCW) laws and state-level murder rates. Specifically, this study will examine the impact of a change in CCW status from “prohibited” to “shall issue” on murder rates. Using a synthetic control method, results of the present study suggest that only in New Mexico did the move from “prohibited” CCW status to “shall issue” CCW status result in an increase in murder rates and gun related murder rates. For the remaining states, the change in CCW status had no effect on murder rates. As a robustness check on the results found using the synthetic control method, a fixed effects model was also estimated. These results indicate that states that changed from “prohibited” to “shall issue” experienced a 12.3% increase in gun-related murder rates and a 4.9% increase in overall murder rates. It is important to note that none of the results in the present study indicate that a move from “prohibited” to “shall issue” CCW status may result in a decline in murder rates.
Challenging Assumptions: A Genetically Sensitive Assessment of the Criminogenic Effect of Contact With the Criminal Justice System
Joseph Nedelec & Ian Silver
Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, forthcoming
Abstract:
A key assumption underlying various components of criminological thought is the criminogenic effect of involvement with the criminal justice system. Prior assessments of this effect, however, have been mixed and all are subject to potential genetic confounding. In the current study, we employ twin difference scores using both monozygotic and dizygotic twins to isolate the effect of involvement with the criminal justice system on future criminal behavior. The findings illustrate null associations between a variety of interactions of the criminal justice system and subsequent criminal offending. The study illustrates the continued ineffectiveness of the standard social science methodological approach to assessing criminology’s main assumptions.
Nobody gives a #%&!: A factorial survey examining the effect of criminological evidence on opposition to sex offender residence restrictions
Jason Rydberg, Christopher Dum & Kelly Socia
Journal of Experimental Criminology, December 2018, Pages 541–550
Objectives: This short report tests whether altering messages concerning the presentation (i.e., criminal justice actor experience vs. summary of scientific findings) or nature of criminological research findings (i.e., lack of crime control effect vs. collateral consequences) regarding the (in)efficacy of sex offender residence restrictions (SORR) would subsequently affect public support for this policy.
Methods: The experimental conditions were presented in a factorial survey delivered to a national online panel, which was subsequently matched to a sampling frame representative of US adults on the basis of gender, age, race, education, ideology, and political interest (N = 970). Analysis of variance was used to estimate the impact of the experimental manipulations on SORR opposition.
Results: Support for SORR was high across all experimental conditions, and no manipulations were statistically associated with variation in opposition to the policy.
Statistical (and Racial) Discrimination, “Ban the Box”, and Crime Rates
Murat Mungan
American Law and Economics Review, Fall 2018, Pages 512–535
Abstract:
This article studies interactions between criminal behavior and employment dynamics in a setting where employees belong to one of two groups. Employers can statistically discriminate based on group membership as well as criminal records. It first shows that “self-fulfilling expectations” cannot exist when there are diminishing returns to deterrence from increasing expected sanctions. This eliminates the possibility of multiple equilibria within groups, and suggests that statistical discrimination by employers can only be motivated by differences across groups’ criminal tendencies. This type of statistical discrimination typically leads to an increase in crime, and the article identifies sufficient conditions for this result. This suggests that societies in which group membership is salient (e.g. due to racial heterogeneity) are, ceteris paribus, likely to have higher crime rates. Attempting to fix the negative impacts of statistical discrimination through policies that reduce the visibility of criminal records (e.g. ban the box) increases crime further. Moreover, such policies cause greater negative effects for law abiding members of the higher-criminal-tendency group, which is consistent with the unintended consequences associated with ban the box campaigns discussed in the empirical literature.
Does helping promote well-being in at-risk youth and ex-offender samples?
Katherine Hanniball et al.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Numerous theories attempt to explain humans' extraordinary prosociality, but predictions are rarely tested among antisocial individuals, whose dampened concern for others offers a particularly strong test of generalizability for prosocial action. To build upon past research demonstrating the emotional benefits of prosociality among non-offending populations and broaden our understanding of how far this relationship may extend, we examined whether the emotional benefits of prosocial spending are detectable in samples of delinquent youth and recent criminal offenders reporting elevated antisocial tendencies and psychopathic personality features. Findings reveal that, controlling for baseline happiness, ex-offenders (N = 501) report greater positive affect after recalling a time they spent money on others than after recalling a time they spent money on themselves. Similarly, delinquent youth (N = 64) and ex-offenders (N = 777) randomly assigned to purchase an item for a needy child reported greater positive affect than those who purchased an item for themselves. Finally, a large pre-registered replication (N = 1295) suggests the immediate emotional benefits of prosocial spending are detectable among ex-offenders when controlling for baseline happiness. Together, these findings demonstrate the emotional rewards of recalled and immediate acts of giving in a new and theoretically relevant population.
Can circles of support and accountability (CoSA) significantly reduce sexual recidivism? Results from a randomized controlled trial in Minnesota
Grant Duwe
Journal of Experimental Criminology, December 2018, Pages 463–484
Objectives: This study evaluates the effectiveness of Minnesota Circles of Support and Accountability (MnCOSA), a sex offender reentry program implemented by the Minnesota Department of Corrections in 2008.
Methods: Using a randomized controlled trial, this study compares recidivism and cost–benefit outcomes among sex offenders in the MnCOSA (N = 50) and control groups (N = 50).
Results: The results suggest MnCOSA significantly reduced sexual recidivism, lowering the risk of rearrest for a new sex offense by 88%. In addition, MnCOSA significantly decreased all four measures of general recidivism, with reductions ranging in size from 49 to 57%. As a result of the reduction in recidivism, findings from the cost–benefit analysis reveal the program has generated an estimated $2 million in costs avoided to the state, resulting in a benefit of $40,923 per participant. For every dollar spent on MnCOSA, the program has yielded an estimated benefit of $3.73.
The Past Is Prologue: Criminal Specialization Continuity in the Delinquent Career
Matt DeLisi et al.
Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, forthcoming
Abstract:
The versatility/specialization debate in criminology has important theoretical, research, and juvenile/criminal justice ramifications. Although offenders are mostly versatile, there is important evidence of specialization, but much of this evidence is derived from highly technical statistical approaches. Drawing on data from a cohort of serious delinquents committed to the California Youth Authority, logistic regression models revealed robust evidence for criminal specialization net the effects of behavioral and demographic controls. Prior homicide was associated with a 1,467% increased likelihood of being currently adjudicated for a homicide offense. Similar prior–current involvement in robbery (294% increased likelihood), aggravated assault (200%), burglary (148%), and drug sales (736%) was found. Logistic regression with odds ratios provides intuitive, valuable estimates of specialization in offending whereby prior involvement in a specific form of delinquency dramatically increases the likelihood of current involvement in the same form of crime.
An Analysis of State Statutes Regarding the Role of Law Enforcement
Carly Cortright et al.
Criminal Justice Policy Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Police officer roles are typically divided into either crime control or peacekeeping/order maintenance functions. With the prevalence of community-oriented policing (COP), the majority of an officer’s duties are ostensibly more order maintenance in nature, but in the post-Ferguson world, the crime-fighting, warrior cop mentality still holds firm, which is in conflict with the tenets of COP. State statutes dictate the legal role of police officer and prior analyses demonstrated a shift over time toward including more order maintenance tasks following the emergence of COP. This analysis reexamines these statutes to determine if this shift continued. Our findings indicate a counterintuitive reversal in the trend, with more states removing order maintenance and peacekeeping duties from their statutes despite the wide dominance of COP.
Reluctant to embrace innocence: An experimental test of persevering culpability judgments on people’s willingness to support reintegration services for exonerees
Kyle Scherr, Christopher Normile & Maria Camila Sarmiento
Journal of Experimental Criminology, December 2018, Pages 529–538
Method: Using an experimental design, participants were randomly assigned to read a news story that depicted an African-American or White male who was exonerated after being wrongfully convicted of assault or embezzlement. Participants then offered their culpability judgments (i.e., their belief in the exoneree’s guilt and confidence in that belief) and willingness to support reintegration services.
Results: Participants were less confident of the exoneree’s innocence and less supportive of psychological counseling services when the exoneree was a White, compared to African-American, male wrongfully convicted of the race stereotypic-consistent crime of embezzlement. An exploratory conditional mediation analysis indicated that less confidence in the exoneree’s innocence after being wrongfully convicted of a race stereotypic-consistent crime was, in turn, associated with people’s hesitancy to support psychological counseling for the exoneree.
Policing in divided societies: Officer inclusion, citizen cooperation, and crime prevention
Matthew Nanes
Conflict Management and Peace Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
How does demographic inclusion in domestic security institutions affect security provision in divided societies? Police officers rely on information from citizens to identify problems and allocate resources efficiently. Where conflict along identity lines erodes trust between citizens and the state, the police face difficulty obtaining information, hindering their ability to provide public safety. I argue that inclusiveness in the police rank-and-file addresses this problem by fostering cooperation from previously excluded segments of society. I test this argument in Israel and its conflict between the Jewish majority and non-Jewish minority. First, a survey of 804 Israeli citizens shows that non-Jews who perceive the police as more inclusive are more willing to provide the police with information. I then use original panel data on police officer demographics at every police station in Israel over a six year period to show that increases in police inclusiveness are associated with decreases in crime.
What have we learned from the time trend of mass shootings in the U.S.?
Ping-I Lin et al.
PLoS ONE, October 2018
Abstract:
Little is known regarding the time trend of mass shootings and associated risk factors. In the current study, we intended to explore the time trend and relevant risk factors for mass shootings in the U.S. We attempted to identify factors associated with incidence rates of mass shootings at the population level. We evaluated if state-level gun ownership rate, serious mental illness rate, poverty percentage, and gun law permissiveness could predict the state-level mass shooting rate, using the Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson regression model. We also tested if the nationwide incidence rate of mass shootings increased over the past three decades using the non-homogenous Poisson regression model. We further examined if the frequency of online media coverage and online search interest levels correlated with the interval between two consecutive incidents. The results suggest an increasing trend of mass shooting incidences over time (p < 0.001). However, none of the state-level variables could predict the mass shooting rate. Interestingly, we have found inverse correlations between the interval between consecutive shootings and the frequency of on-line related reports as well as on-line search interests, respectively (p < 0.001). Therefore, our findings suggest that online media might correlate with the increasing incidence rate of mass shootings. Future research is warranted to continue monitoring if the incidence rates of mass shootings change with any population-level factors in order to inform us of possible prevention strategies.
Child Access Prevention Laws and Juvenile Firearm-Related Homicides
Mark Anderson, Joseph Sabia & Erdal Tekin
NBER Working Paper, November 2018
Abstract:
Debate over safe-storage gun regulations has captured public attention in the aftermath of several high-profile shootings committed by minors. Whether these laws actually decrease youth gun violence, however, is an unanswered question. Using data from the FBI’s Supplementary Homicide Reports for the period 1985-2013, this study is the first to estimate the relationship between child access prevention (CAP) laws and firearm-related homicides committed by juveniles. Our results suggest that CAP laws are associated with a 19 percent reduction in juvenile firearm-related homicides. The estimated effect is stronger among whites than blacks and is driven by states enforcing the strictest safe-storage standard. We find no evidence that CAP laws are associated with firearm-related homicides committed by adults or with non-firearm-related homicides committed by juveniles, suggesting that the observed relationship between CAP laws and juvenile firearm-related homicides is causal.
Gun Carrying and Gun Victimization among American Adolescents: A Fresh Look at a Nationally Representative Sample
Stephen Watts
Victims & Offenders, forthcoming
Abstract:
A scant literature has identified gun carrying as a potential risk factor for victimization at the individual level. To date, however, research has generally focused on high-risk individuals rather than samples drawn from the general population. Additionally, prior studies have not often enough included controls robust enough to feel strongly that the relationship between gun carrying and victimization, gun victimization in particular, is not simply the spurious outcome of factors that influence both variables. The current study uses data from Add Health participants (N = 13,568) to look at the effect of gun carrying on gun victimization among adolescents. Results suggest that even when robust controls are considered, a measure of gun carrying significantly and positively correlates with gun victimization. The results support a model of the gun carrying-gun victimization relationship wherein gun carrying increases risks for gun victimization independent of factors that may influence both risky behaviors and victimization. Implications for theory and policy are discussed.
Improving Youths’ Attitudes About the Police: Results From an Experimental Design
Tina Freiburger
Criminal Justice Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study examined the effectiveness of Students Talking it Over with Police (STOP) to improve youths’ perceptions of the police, willingness to cooperate with police, and perceptions of procedural justice. It utilized an experimental design in 36 schools in Milwaukee, WI. Pretest and posttest were administered to assess the outcomes before and after the STOP program. The results indicated that STOP was effective in improving youths’ perceptions of the police, youths’ willingness to cooperate with the police, and youths’ perceptions of procedural justice. Additional analysis suggested that STOP was able to reverse some of the negative effects these encounters had on youths’ perceptions, as those with prior negative interactions of police experienced significantly greater rates of change in their perceptions of procedural justice than those who did not have a negative encounter.