High crimes
The Effects of Recreational Marijuana Legalization and Dispensing on Opioid Mortality
Nathan Chan, Jesse Burkhardt & Matthew Flyr
Economic Inquiry, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study documents how the changing legal status of marijuana has impacted mortality in the United States over the past two decades. We use a difference‐in‐difference approach to estimate the effect of medical marijuana laws (MML) and recreational marijuana laws (RML) on fatalities from opioid overdoses, and we find that marijuana access induces sharp reductions in opioid mortality rates. Our research corroborates prior findings on MMLs and offers the first causal estimates of RML impacts on opioid mortality to date, the latter of which is particularly important given that RMLs are far more expansive in scope and reach than MMLs. In our preferred econometric specification, we estimate that RMLs reduce annual opioid mortality in the range of 20%–35%, with particularly pronounced effects for synthetic opioids. In further analysis, we demonstrate how RML impacts vary among demographic groups, shedding light on the distributional consequences of these laws. Our findings are especially important and timely given the scale of the opioid crisis in the United States and simultaneously evolving attitudes and regulations on marijuana use.
The Minimum Legal Drinking Age and Crime Victimization
Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen & Rachel Ryley
NBER Working Paper, July 2019
Abstract:
For every crime there is a victim. However nearly all studies in the economics of crime have focused the causal determinants of criminality. We present novel evidence on the causal determinants of victimization, focusing on legal access to alcohol. The social costs of alcohol use and abuse are sizable and well-documented. We find criminal victimization for both violent and property crimes increases noticeably at age 21. Effects are not present at other birthdays and do not appear to be driven by a birth-day "celebration effect." The effects are particularly large for sexual assaults, especially those that occur in public locations. Our results suggest prior research which has focused on criminality has understated the true social costs associated with increased access to alcohol.
Not in my backyard? Not so fast. The effect of marijuana legalization on neighborhood crime
Jeffrey Brinkman & David Mok-Lamme
Regional Science and Urban Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper studies the effects of marijuana legalization on neighborhood crime and documents the patterns in retail dispensary locations over time using detailed micro-level data from Denver, Colorado. To account for endogenous retail dispensary locations, we use a novel identification strategy that exploits exogenous changes in demand across different locations arising from the increased importance of external markets after the legalization of recreational marijuana sales. The results imply that an additional dispensary in a neighborhood leads to a reduction of 17 crimes per month per 10,000 residents, which corresponds to roughly a 19 percent decline relative to the average crime rate over the sample period. Reductions in crime are highly localized, with no evidence of spillover benefits to adjacent neighborhoods. Analysis of detailed crime categories provides insights into the mechanisms underlying the reductions.
Opioids and social bonding: Effect of naltrexone on feelings of social connection and ventral striatum activity to close others
Tristen Inagaki, Laura Hazlett & Carmen Andreescu
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, forthcoming
Abstract:
Close social bonds are critical to immediate and long-term well-being. However, the neurochemical mechanisms by which we remain connected to our closest loved ones are not well understood. Opioids have long been theorized to contribute to social bonding via their actions on the brain. But feelings of social connection toward one’s own close others and direct comparisons of ventral striatum (VS) activity in response to close others and strangers, a neural correlate of social bonding, have not been explored. Therefore, the current clinical trial examined whether opioids causally affect neural and experiential signatures of social bonding. Eighty participants were administered naltrexone (n = 40), an opioid antagonist that blocks natural opioid processing, or placebo (n = 40) before completing a functional MRI scan where they viewed images of their close others and individuals they had not seen before (i.e., strangers). Feelings of social connection to the close others and physical symptoms commonly experienced when taking naltrexone were also collected. In support of hypotheses, naltrexone (vs. placebo) reduced feelings of social connection toward the close others (e.g., family, friends, romantic partners). Furthermore, naltrexone (vs. placebo) reduced left VS activity in response to images of the same close others, but did not alter left VS activity to strangers. Finally, the positive correlation between feelings of connection and VS activity to close others present in the placebo condition was erased by naltrexone. Effects remained after adjusting for physical symptoms. Together, results lend support to theories suggesting that opioids contribute to social bonding, especially with our closest loved ones.
Are Syringe Exchange Programs Helpful or Harmful? New Evidence in the Wake of the Opioid Epidemic
Analisa Packham
NBER Working Paper, July 2019
Abstract:
In light of the recent opioid crisis, many public health entities have called for an expansion in syringe exchange programs (SEPs), which provide access to sterile syringes and facilitate safe needle disposal for injection drug users. This paper investigates the effects of recent SEP openings on HIV diagnoses and drug-related overdoses in the wake of the opioid crisis. I find that SEP openings decrease HIV diagnoses by up to 18.2 percent. However, I present new evidence that SEPs increase rates of opioid-related mortality and hospitalizations, suggesting that needle exchanges alone may be less effective than other interventions at stimulating recovery.
The Pot Rush: Is Legalized Marijuana a Positive Local Amenity?
Diego Zambiasi & Steven Stillman
Economic Inquiry, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper examines the amenity value of legalized marijuana by analyzing the impact of marijuana legalization on migration to Colorado. Colorado is the pioneering state in this area having legalized medical marijuana in 2000 and recreational marijuana in 2012. We test whether potential migrants to Colorado view legalized marijuana as a positive or negative local amenity. We use the synthetic control methodology to examine in‐ and out‐migration to/from Colorado versus migration to/from counterfactual versions of Colorado that have not legalized marijuana. We find strong evidence that potential migrants view legalized marijuana as a positive amenity with in‐migration significantly higher in Colorado compared with synthetic‐Colorado after the writing of the Ogden memo in 2009 that effectively allowed state laws already in place to be activated, and additionally after marijuana was legalized in 2013 for recreational use. When we employ permutation methods to assess the statistical likelihood of our results given our sample, we find that Colorado is a clear and significant outlier. We find no evidence for changes in out‐migration from Colorado suggesting that marijuana legalization did not change the equilibrium for individuals already living in the state.
Mortality and Socioeconomic Consequences of Prescription Opioids: Evidence from State Policies
Robert Kaestner & Engy Ziedan
NBER Working Paper, August 2019
Abstract:
This article presents estimates of the effects of state prescription opioid policies on prescription opioid sales, mortality and socioeconomic outcomes of adults. Our analysis highlights that most prescription opioid use is medically prescribed and that curtailing such use may have adverse effects on wellbeing. We also emphasize that there are significant differences in prescription opioid use and mis-use across demographic groups that may cause state policies to have heterogeneous effects. Results indicate that state policies reduced prescription opioid sales by between 5% and 20% depending on the policy and type of prescription opioid. State “pill mill” laws have been particularly effective at reducing prescription opioid sales. The reductions in prescription opioid sales associated with state policies, however, were not associated with significant changes in mortality or socioeconomic outcomes.
Trends in Foster Care Entry Among Children Removed From Their Homes Because of Parental Drug Use, 2000 to 2017
Angélica Meinhofer & Yohanis Angleró-Díaz
JAMA Pediatrics, forthcoming
"The number of foster care entries attributable to parental drug use increased substantially from 2000 to 2017 (from 39,130 to 96,672 removals, an increase of 57,542 removals [147.05%]), even when entries for other removal reasons mostly declined."
Patterns of nicotine concentrations in electronic cigarettes sold in the United States, 2013-2018
Alexa Romberg et al.
Drug and Alcohol Dependence, October 2019, Pages 1-7
Methods: E-cigarette sales data aggregated in 4-week periods from March 2, 2013 to September 8, 2018 (66 months total) from convenience store and mass market channels were obtained from Nielsen. Internet and vape shop sales were not available. Internet searches were used to supplement information for nicotine concentration and flavor. Products were categorized by nicotine concentration, flavor, type (disposable or rechargeable), and brand. Dollar sales, unit sales, and average nicotine concentration were assessed.
Results: During 2013-2018, the average nicotine concentration in e-cigarettes sold increased overall, for all flavor categories, and for rechargeable e-cigarettes. The proportion of total dollar sales comprised of higher nicotine concentration e-cigarettes (>4% mg/mL) increased from 12.3% to 74.7% during 2013-2018, with a similar increase in unit share. Zero-nicotine products accounted for less than 1% of dollar market share across all years analyzed.
The Effect of E-Cigarette Taxes on Pre-Pregnancy and Prenatal Smoking, and Birth Outcomes
Rahi Abouk et al.
NBER Working Paper, July 2019
Abstract:
We use the universe of birth records in the United States from 2013 to 2017 to examine the effect of e-cigarette taxes on pre-pregnancy smoking, prenatal smoking, and birth outcomes (birth weight, gestational length, and Apgar 5 score). We apply a differences-in-differences model to study these questions. We have two principle findings. First, e-cigarette tax adoption increases pre-pregnancy and prenatal smoking, implying that e-cigarettes and traditional cigarettes are substitutes among pregnant women. Second, in line with clinical literature suggesting that both e-cigarettes and traditional cigarettes are harmful to developing fetuses, birth outcomes are largely unchanged following adoption of an e-cigarette tax. In sum, our results suggest that e-cigarettes reduce prenatal smoking, but have no observable benefit towards the goal of promoting fetal development.
Business Cycles and Admissions to Substance Abuse Treatment
Johanna Catherine Maclean, Brady Horn & Jonathan Cantor
Contemporary Economic Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
We study the effect of business cycles on admissions to specialty substance abuse treatment using administrative data between 1992 and 2015. We proxy business cycles with the state unemployment rate and apply a panel fixed‐effects model. While previous economic research has shown that substance abuse is counter‐cyclical, we observe no change in the total number of admissions across the business cycle. However, focusing on average effects misses important heterogeneity. In substance‐specific regressions we find statistically significant evidence that heroin‐related admissions are counter‐cyclical while stimulant‐related admissions are procyclical. Our findings add to the literature on business cycles and health.
Mortality salience leads to greater consumption of an ostensibly alcoholic beverage on Friday versus other weekdays
Simon McCabe & Bruce Bartholow
British Journal of Health Psychology, forthcoming
Design: The study took the form of a 2 (death vs. uncertainty reminder) × 3 (Monday vs. Wednesday vs. Friday) between‐subjects laboratory‐based quasi‐experimental design.
Methods: A total of 210 participants (age: M = 21.92 years, SD = 5.33; 103 males and 107 females) recruited from a UK university answered either an open‐ended question to prime mortality or uncertainty cognition on either a Monday, Wednesday, or Friday. As part of an ostensible taste test, they then consumed as much or as little of a purportedly alcoholic drink as they desired.
Results: Death reminders (vs. control topic) were found to result in more consumption of the beverage on a Friday, less consumption on a Monday, and no difference in consumption on a Wednesday.
Frontiers: Asymmetric Effects of Recreational Cannabis Legalization
Pengyuan Wang, Guiyang Xiong & Jian Yang
Marketing Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Recently, as cannabis was legalized for recreational use in an increasing number of states, it has become more important to understand the effects of cannabis policies, especially on youth. Marketers of other recreational substances are also paying close attention to cannabis policy changes. Alcohol and tobacco companies typically view the cannabis industry as a potential threat and are often found among the opponents to its legalization. However, based on extant research, the treatment effects of recreational cannabis legalization (RCL) and its cross-commodity effects on the alcohol and tobacco industries remain inconclusive. Analyzing large-scale web-based behavioral data, we find that although RCL significantly increases cannabis search, the increase comes from adults only, but not youth. RCL also influences alcohol and tobacco industries asymmetrically: it reduces search volume and advertising effectiveness for alcohol but increases those for tobacco. Hence, cannabis appears to be a substitute for alcohol but not tobacco.