Getting dirt
The Impact of the Flint Water Crisis on Fertility
Daniel Grossman & David Slusky
Demography, December 2019, Pages 2005–2031
Abstract:
Flint switched its public water source in April 2014, increasing exposure to lead and other contaminants. We compare the change in the fertility rate and in health at birth in Flint before and after the water switch to the changes in other cities in Michigan. We find that Flint fertility rates decreased by 12% and that overall health at birth decreased. This effect on health at birth is a function of two countervailing mechanisms: (1) negative selection of less healthy embryos and fetuses not surviving (raising the average health of survivors), and (2) those who survived being scarred (decreasing average health). We untangle this to find a net of selection scarring effect of 5.4% decrease in birth weight. Because of long-term effects of in utero exposure, these effects are likely lower bounds on the overall effects of this exposure.
Mold inhalation causes innate immune activation, neural, cognitive and emotional dysfunction
Cheryl Harding et al.
Brain, Behavior, and Immunity, forthcoming
Abstract:
Individuals living or working in moldy buildings complain of a variety of health problems including pain, fatigue, increased anxiety, depression, and cognitive deficits. The ability of mold to cause such symptoms is controversial since no published research has examined the effects of controlled mold exposure on brain function or proposed a plausible mechanism of action. Patient symptoms following mold exposure are indistinguishable from those caused by innate immune activation following bacterial or viral exposure. We tested the hypothesis that repeated, quantified doses of both toxic and nontoxic mold stimuli would cause innate immune activation with concomitant neural effects and cognitive, emotional, and behavioral symptoms. We intranasally administered either 1) intact, toxic Stachybotrys spores; 2) extracted, nontoxic Stachybotrys spores; or 3) saline vehicle to mice. As predicted, intact spores increased interleukin-1β immunoreactivity in the hippocampus. Both spore types decreased neurogenesis and caused striking memory deficits in young mice, while decreasing pain thresholds and enhancing auditory-cued memory in older mice. Nontoxic spores also increased anxiety-like behavior. Levels of hippocampal immune activation correlated with decreased neurogenesis, contextual memory deficits, and/or enhanced auditory-cued fear memory. Innate-immune activation may explain how both toxic mold and nontoxic mold skeletal elements caused cognitive and emotional dysfunction.
Cumulative environmental and employment impacts of the shale gas boom
Erin Mayfield et al.
Nature Sustainability, December 2019, Pages 1122–1131
Abstract:
Natural gas has become the largest fuel source for electricity generation in the United States and accounts for a third of energy production and consumption. However, the environmental and socioeconomic impacts across the supply chain and over the boom-and-bust cycle have not been comprehensively characterized. To provide insight for long-term decision-making for energy transitions, we estimate the cumulative effects of the shale gas boom in the Appalachian basin from 2004 to 2016 on air quality, climate change and employment. We find that air quality effects (1,200 to 4,600 deaths; US$23 billion +99%/−164%) and employment effects (469,000 job-years ±30%; US$21 billion ±30%) follow the boom-and-bust cycle, while climate impacts (US$12 billion to 94 billion) persist for generations well beyond the period of natural gas activity. Employment effects concentrate in rural areas where production occurs. However, almost half of cumulative premature mortality due to air pollution is downwind of these areas, occurring in urban regions of the northeast. The cumulative effects of methane and carbon dioxide emissions on global mean temperature over a 30-yr time horizon are nearly equivalent but over the long term, the cumulative climate impact is largely due to carbon dioxide. We estimate that a tax on production of US$2 per thousand cubic feet (+172%/−76%) would compensate for cumulative climate and air quality externalities across the supply chain.
More sneezing, less crime? Health shocks and the market for offenses
Aaron Chalfin, Shooshan Danagoulian & Monica Deza
Journal of Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
A large literature points out that exposure to criminal victimization has far-reaching effects on public health. What remains surprisingly unexplored is that role that health shocks play in explaining aggregate fluctuations in offending. This research finds novel evidence that crime is sensitive to health shocks. We consider the responsiveness of crime to a pervasive and common health shock which we argue shifts costs and benefits for offenders and victims: seasonal allergies. Leveraging daily variation in city-specific pollen counts, we present evidence that violent crime declines in U.S. cities on days in which the local pollen count is unusually high and that these effects are driven by residential violence. While past literature suggests that property crimes have more instrumental motives, require planning, and hence are particularly sensitive to permanent changes in the cost and benefits of crime, we find that violence may be especially sensitive to health shocks.
Short Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and Hospital Admission Risks and Costs in the Medicare Population: Time Stratified, Case Crossover Study
Yaguang Wei et al.
British Medical Journal, November 2019
Design: Time stratified, case crossover analyses with conditional logistic regressions adjusted for non-linear confounding effects of meteorological variables.
Setting: Medicare inpatient hospital claims in the United States, 2000-12 (n=95 277 169).
Participants: All Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 or older admitted to hospital.
Results: Positive associations between short term exposure to PM2.5 and risk of hospital admission were found for several prevalent but rarely studied diseases, such as septicemia, fluid and electrolyte disorders, and acute and unspecified renal failure. Positive associations were also found between risk of hospital admission and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, Parkinson’s disease, diabetes, phlebitis, thrombophlebitis, and thromboembolism, confirming previously published results. These associations remained consistent when restricted to days with a daily PM2.5 concentration below the WHO air quality guideline for the 24 hour average exposure to PM2.5. For the rarely studied diseases, each 1 µg/m3 increase in short term PM2.5 was associated with an annual increase of 2050 hospital admissions (95% confidence interval 1914 to 2187 admissions), 12 216 days in hospital (11 358 to 13 075), US$31m (£24m, €28m; $29m to $34m) in inpatient and post-acute care costs, and $2.5bn ($2.0bn to $2.9bn) in value of statistical life. For diseases with a previously known association, each 1 µg/m3 increase in short term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with an annual increase of 3642 hospital admissions (3434 to 3851), 20 098 days in hospital (18 950 to 21 247), $69m ($65m to $73m) in inpatient and post-acute care costs, and $4.1bn ($3.5bn to $4.7bn) in value of statistical life.
Air pollution-induced missed abortion risk for pregnancies
Liqiang Zhang et al.
Nature Sustainability, November 2019, Pages 1011–1017
Abstract:
Fetus death risk reduction is included in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, little is known about how missed abortion in the first trimester (MAFT) is related to maternal air pollution exposure. We quantify the link between air pollution exposure and MAFT in Beijing, China, a region with severe MAFT and air quality problems. We analyse the records of 255,668 pregnant women from 2009 to 2017 and contrast them with maternal exposure to air pollutants (particulate matter PM2.5, SO2, O3 and CO). We adjust for confounding factors such as sociodemographic characteristics, spatial autocorrelation and ambient temperature. We find that, for all four pollutants, an increased risk of MAFT is associated with rises in pollutant concentrations and the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of these associations increase with higher concentrations. For example, the adjusted OR of MAFT risk for a 10.0 μg m−3 increase in SO2 exposure is between 1.29 and 1.41 at concentrations of 7.1–19.5 μg m−3; it drops to 1.17 below this range and rises to 1.52 above it at higher SO2 concentrations. This means that the risk increase is not linear but becomes more severe the higher the pollutant concentration. The findings provide evidence linking fetus disease burden and maternal air pollution exposure.
Fine Particulate Air Pollution from Electricity Generation in the US: Health Impacts by Race, Income, and Geography
Maninder Thind et al.
Environmental Science & Technology, 3 December 2019, Pages 14010-14019
Abstract:
Electricity generation is a large contributor to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution. However, the demographic distribution of the resulting exposure is largely unknown. We estimate exposures to and health impacts of PM2.5 from electricity generation in the US, for each of the seven Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs), for each US state, by income and by race. We find that average exposures are the highest for blacks, followed by non-Latino whites. Exposures for remaining groups (e.g., Asians, Native Americans, Latinos) are somewhat lower. Disparities by race/ethnicity are observed for each income category, indicating that the racial/ethnic differences hold even after accounting for differences in income. Levels of disparity differ by state and RTO. Exposures are higher for lower-income than for higher-income, but disparities are larger by race than by income. Geographically, we observe large differences between where electricity is generated and where people experience the resulting PM2.5 health consequences; some states are net exporters of health impacts, other are net importers. For 36 US states, most of the health impacts are attributable to emissions in other states. Most of the total impacts are attributable to coal rather than other fuels.
Geographic Determinants of Infant Health: The Impact of Sports Facility Construction Projects
Brad Humphreys & Jane Ruseski
West Virginia University Working Paper, October 2019
Abstract:
A large body of research examines determinants of infant health outcomes but little examines geographic variation generated by exogenous economic shocks. Linking birth data from the CDC Natality files to counties building new facilities from 1995-2002, we find that sports facility construction projects generate local negative externalities. Infants born during facility construction periods have lower birth weights than infants born in comparable counties where no new facility opened. Maternal prenatal health visits also fall in the post-facility-opening period. Mechanisms for this impact include local airborne particulate matter and reduced provision of government services affecting prenatal health.
Black Carbon Increases Frequency of Extreme ENSO Events
Sijia Lou et al.
Journal of Climate, December 2019, Pages 8323–8333
Abstract:
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of Earth’s climate variability at interannual time scales with profound ecological and societal impacts, and it is projected to intensify in many climate models as the climate warms under the forcing of increasing CO2 concentration. Since the preindustrial era, black carbon (BC) emissions have substantially increased in the Northern Hemisphere. But how BC aerosol forcing may influence the occurrence of the extreme ENSO events has rarely been investigated. In this study, using simulations of a global climate model, we show that increases in BC emissions from both the midlatitudes and Arctic weaken latitudinal temperature gradients and northward heat transport, decrease tropical energy divergence, and increase sea surface temperature over the tropical oceans, with a surprising consequential increase in the frequency of extreme ENSO events. A corollary of this study is that reducing BC emissions might serve to mitigate the possible increasing frequency of extreme ENSO events under greenhouse warming, if the modeling result can be translated into the climate in reality.
Considering the Nuclear Option: Hidden Benefits and Social Costs of Nuclear Power in the U.S. Since 1970
David Adler, Akshaya Jha & Edson Severnini
Resource and Energy Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although burning fossil fuels has environmental consequences, many countries have switched away from nuclear power in favor of fossil-fuel fired electricity production after incidents at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima. This study estimates the substitution between nuclear and fossil-fuel fired electricity generation in the United States. Using an event-study framework, we leverage nuclear plant openings from 1970-1995, and forced nuclear plant outages from 1999-2014. Plant openings (nuclear outages) reduce (increase) monthly net coal-fired generation by approximately 200 GW h, implying a considerable reduction (increase) in emissions. We find that the substitution between nuclear and coal is not one-to-one, as has been assumed in prior literature. After establishing these stylized facts, we explore the potential underlying forces driving the observed substitution between coal and nuclear.