Floating around You
The effects of increased pollution on COVID-19 cases and deaths
Claudia Persico & Kathryn Johnson
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
The SARS-COV-2 virus, also known as the coronavirus, has spread around the world. A growing literature suggests that exposure to pollution can cause respiratory illness and increase deaths among the elderly. However, little is known about whether increases in pollution could cause additional or more severe infections from COVID-19, which typically manifests as a respiratory infection. During the pandemic, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rolled back enforcement of environmental regulation, causing an increase in pollution in counties with more TRI sites. We use the variation in pollution and a difference in differences design to estimate the effects of increased pollution on county-level COVID-19 deaths and cases. We find that counties with more Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) sites saw a 11.8 percent increase in pollution on average following the EPA's rollback of enforcement, compared to counties with fewer TRI sites. We also find that these policy-induced increases in pollution are associated with a 53 percent increase in cases and a 10.6 percent increase in deaths from COVID-19.
Skipping the Bag: The Intended and Unintended Consequences of Disposable Bag Regulation
Tatiana Homonoff et al.
NBER Working Paper, February 2021
Abstract:
Regulation of goods associated with negative environmental externalities may decrease consumption of the targeted product, but may be ineffective at reducing the externality itself if close substitutes are left unregulated. We find evidence that plastic bag bans, the most common disposable bag regulation in the US, led retailers to circumvent the regulation by providing free thicker plastic bags which are not covered by the ban. In contrast, a regulation change that replaced the ban with a small tax on all disposable bags generated large decreases in disposable bag use and overall environmental costs. Our results suggest that narrowly-defined regulations (like plastic bag bans) may be less effective than policies that target a more comprehensive set of products, even in the case when the policy instrument itself (a tax rather than a ban) is not as strict.
Do Environmental Regulations Do More Harm Than Good? Evidence from Competition and Innovation
Rui Dai, Rui Duan & Lilian Ng
University of Pennsylvania Working Paper, January 2021
Abstract:
This study examines whether and how competition affects corporate strategic responses to stringent environmental policies. Using the nonattainment status of U.S. counties as a source of exogenous variation in environmental regulation, we find that competition fosters green innovation as firms respond to stricter regulatory policy. Additional analyses using a subsample of firms in counties whose pollutant concentrations are marginally above or below EPA standards for regional air quality and exploiting exogenous variations in product market competition further reinforce our baseline evidence. The results suggest that the cost of relocation is a critical mechanism that compels firms to innovate when responding to tightened environmental policies and heightened competitive pressure. Regulation-induced green innovation helps competitive firms better achieve product differentiation and attract more corporate customers than their less competitive peers. Finally, competitive firms' strategic responses to stringent environmental regulations result in improved market share growth, markup, profit margin, and abnormal return.
Anthropogenic climate change is worsening North American pollen seasons
William Anderegg et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 16 February 2021
Abstract:
Airborne pollen has major respiratory health impacts and anthropogenic climate change may increase pollen concentrations and extend pollen seasons. While greenhouse and field studies indicate that pollen concentrations are correlated with temperature, a formal detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in continental pollen seasons is urgently needed. Here, we use long-term pollen data from 60 North American stations from 1990 to 2018, spanning 821 site-years of data, and Earth system model simulations to quantify the role of human-caused climate change in continental patterns in pollen concentrations. We find widespread advances and lengthening of pollen seasons (+20 d) and increases in pollen concentrations (+21%) across North America, which are strongly coupled to observed warming. Human forcing of the climate system contributed ∼50% (interquartile range: 19–84%) of the trend in pollen seasons and ∼8% (4–14%) of the trend in pollen concentrations. Our results reveal that anthropogenic climate change has already exacerbated pollen seasons in the past three decades with attendant deleterious effects on respiratory health.
Are Resource Booms a Blessing or a Curse? Evidence from People (not Places)
Grant Jacobsen, Dominic Parker & Justin Winikoff
Journal of Human Resources, forthcoming
Abstract:
We provide the first estimates of the long-run effects of temporary resource booms on the income of people, rather than places, focusing on the U.S. oil boom and bust of the 1980s. Using annual household-level longitudinal data spanning 1969 to 2012, we find positive effects during the boom period and negative effects during the bust period. The cumulative net effect of the boom-bust on life-time earnings was arguably negative when restricting the sample to prime working years (<55) and positive otherwise only because the boom delayed retirement. The evidence suggests the boom was ultimately a curse for the average household. It failed to generate net income gains during prime age and its volatility caused costly income-smoothing later in life.
Wildfire smoke impacts respiratory health more than fine particles from other sources: Observational evidence from Southern California
Rosana Aguilera et al.
Nature Communications, March 2021
Abstract:
Wildfires are becoming more frequent and destructive in a changing climate. Fine particulate matter, PM2.5, in wildfire smoke adversely impacts human health. Recent toxicological studies suggest that wildfire particulate matter may be more toxic than equal doses of ambient PM2.5. Air quality regulations however assume that the toxicity of PM2.5 does not vary across different sources of emission. Assessing whether PM2.5 from wildfires is more or less harmful than PM2.5 from other sources is a pressing public health concern. Here, we isolate the wildfire-specific PM2.5 using a series of statistical approaches and exposure definitions. We found increases in respiratory hospitalizations ranging from 1.3 to up to 10% with a 10 μg m−3 increase in wildfire-specific PM2.5, compared to 0.67 to 1.3% associated with non-wildfire PM2.5. Our conclusions point to the need for air quality policies to consider the variability in PM2.5 impacts on human health according to the sources of emission.
A proposed global layout of carbon capture and storage in line with a 2 °C climate target
Yi-Ming Wei et al.
Nature Climate Change, February 2021, Pages 112–118
Abstract:
A straightforward global layout of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is imperative for limiting global warming well below 2 °C. Here, we propose a cost-effective strategy for matching carbon sources and sinks on a global scale. Results show 3,093 carbon clusters and 432 sinks in 85 countries and regions are selected to achieve 92 GtCO2 mitigation by CCUS, 64% of which will be sequestered into sedimentary basins for aquifer storage and 36% will be used for CO2-EOR (enhanced oil recovery). Of the identified source–sink matching, 80% are distributed within 300 km and are mainly located in China, the United States, the European Union, Russia and India. The total cost is ~0.12% of global cumulative gross domestic product. Of countries with CO2-EOR, 75% will turn into profitable at the oil price over US$100 per barrel. These findings indicate our proposed layout is economically feasible. However, its implementation requires global collaboration on financial and technological transfer.
Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100
Andrew Bell et al.
Environmental Research Letters, February 2021
Abstract:
To date, projections of human migration induced by sea-level change (SLC) largely suggest large-scale displacement away from vulnerable coastlines. However, results from our model of Bangladesh suggest counterintuitively that people will continue to migrate toward the vulnerable coastline irrespective of the flooding amplified by future SLC under all emissions scenarios until the end of this century. We developed an empirically calibrated agent-based model of household migration decision-making that captures the multi-faceted push, pull and mooring influences on migration at a household scale. We then exposed ~4800 000 simulated migrants to 871 scenarios of projected 21st-century coastal flooding under future emissions pathways. Our model does not predict flooding impacts great enough to drive populations away from coastlines in any of the scenarios. One reason is that while flooding does accelerate a transition from agricultural to non-agricultural income opportunities, livelihood alternatives are most abundant in coastal cities. At the same time, some coastal populations are unable to migrate, as flood losses accumulate and reduce the set of livelihood alternatives (so-called 'trapped' populations). However, even when we increased access to credit, a commonly-proposed policy lever for incentivizing migration in the face of climate risk, we found that the number of immobile agents actually rose. These findings imply that instead of a straightforward relationship between displacement and migration, projections need to consider the multiple constraints on, and preferences for, mobility. Our model demonstrates that decision-makers seeking to affect migration outcomes around SLC would do well to consider individual-level adaptive behaviors and motivations that evolve through time, as well as the potential for unintended behavioral responses.
Where is Pollution Moving? Environmental Markets and Environmental Justice
Joseph Shapiro & Reed Walker
NBER Working Paper, January 2021
Abstract:
Do US air pollution offset markets disproportionately relocate pollution to or from low-income or minority communities? Concerns about an equal distribution of environmental quality across communities — environmental justice — have growing policy influence. We relate prices and quantities of offset transactions to demographics of the communities surrounding polluting plants. We find little association of offset prices or offset-induced movements in pollution with the share of a community that is Black, Hispanic, or with mean household income. This analysis of twelve prominent offset markets suggests that they do not substantially increase or decrease the equity of environmental outcomes.
Buy Less, Buy Luxury: Understanding and Overcoming Product Durability Neglect for Sustainable Consumption
Jennifer Sun, Silvia Bellezza & Neeru Paharia
Journal of Marketing, forthcoming
Abstract:
The authors propose that high-end goods, such as luxury apparel, can be more sustainable than mass-market products because they have a longer life-cycle. Across six studies, the authors examine the sustainability of high-end products, investigate consumers’ decision making when considering high-end versus ordinary goods, and identify effective marketing strategies to emphasize product durability, an important and valued dimension of sustainable consumption. Real-world data on new and secondhand accessories demonstrate that high-end goods can be more sustainable than mid-range products because they have a longer life-cycle. Furthermore, consumers engage in more sustainable behaviors with high-end goods, owning them for longer and disposing them in more environmentally friendly manners. Nevertheless, a series of studies shows that many consumers prefer to allocate the same budget on multiple ordinary goods in lieu of fewer high-end products partly because of product durability neglect, a failure to consider how long a product will last. Finally, this research offers actionable strategies for marketers to help consumers overcome product durability neglect and nudge them towards concentrating their budget on fewer high-end, durable products.
Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium
Levke Caesar et al.
Nature Geoscience, March 2021, Pages 118-120
Abstract:
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) — one of Earth’s major ocean circulation systems — redistributes heat on our planet and has a major impact on climate. Here, we compare a variety of published proxy records to reconstruct the evolution of the AMOC since about AD 400. A fairly consistent picture of the AMOC emerges: after a long and relatively stable period, there was an initial weakening starting in the nineteenth century, followed by a second, more rapid, decline in the mid-twentieth century, leading to the weakest state of the AMOC occurring in recent decades.
A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure
Robert Nicholls et al.
Nature Climate Change, forthcoming
Abstract:
Climate-induced sea-level rise and vertical land movements, including natural and human-induced subsidence in sedimentary coastal lowlands, combine to change relative sea levels around the world’s coasts. Although this affects local rates of sea-level rise, assessments of the coastal impacts of subsidence are lacking on a global scale. Here, we quantify global-mean relative sea-level rise to be 2.5 mm yr−1 over the past two decades. However, as coastal inhabitants are preferentially located in subsiding locations, they experience an average relative sea-level rise up to four times faster at 7.8 to 9.9 mm yr−1. These results indicate that the impacts and adaptation needs are much higher than reported global sea-level rise measurements suggest. In particular, human-induced subsidence in and surrounding coastal cities can be rapidly reduced with appropriate policy for groundwater utilization and drainage. Such policy would offer substantial and rapid benefits to reduce growth of coastal flood exposure due to relative sea-level rise.