Fear factor
Sex Offender Law and the Geography of Victimization
Amanda Agan & J.J. Prescott
Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, December 2014, Pages 786-828
Abstract:
Sex offender laws that target recidivism (e.g., community notification and residency restriction regimes) are premised - at least in part - on the idea that sex offender proximity and victimization risk are positively correlated. We examine this relationship by combining past and current address information of registered sex offenders (RSOs) with crime data from Baltimore County, Maryland, to study how crime rates vary across neighborhoods with different concentrations of resident RSOs. Contrary to the assumptions of policymakers and the public, we find that, all else equal, reported sex offense victimization risk is generally (although not uniformly) lower in neighborhoods where more RSOs live. To further probe the relationship between where RSOs live and where sex crime occurs, we consider whether public knowledge of the identity and proximity of RSOs may make offending in those areas more difficult for (or less attractive to) all potential sex offenders. We exploit the fact that Maryland's registry became searchable via the Internet during our sample period to investigate how laws that publicly identify RSOs may change the relationship between the residential concentration of RSOs and neighborhood victimization risk. Surprisingly, for some categories of sex crime, notification appears to increase the relative risk of victimization in neighborhoods with greater concentrations of RSOs.
----------------------
Registered Sex Offenders and Reported Sex Offenses
Thomas Stucky & John Ottensmann
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
Geographic restrictions on registered sex offenders (RSOs) have become commonplace. Such policies generally assume that sex offenses are likely to be higher near RSOs. Yet, few ecological studies have examined this question empirically. The current study examines whether incidences of reported sex offenses are higher in proximity to the addresses of RSOs. Specifically, we examine whether there is a relationship between the number of reported sex offenses and the number of RSOs living in square grid cells (and in 1,000, 1,500, and 2,500 ft radii of the cell centroid) in Indianapolis. Count models indicate that the number of RSOs in an area is not a robust predictor of reported sex offenses, net of controls.
----------------------
A Study of African American Serial Killers
David Lester & John White
Journal of Ethnicity in Criminal Justice, Fall 2014, Pages 308-316
Abstract:
A comparison of 57 African American serial killers since 1900 with 205 Euro-American serial killers on 83 variables revealed that African American serial killers killed fewer victims, committed fewer sexually deviant and violent acts in their crimes (such as less often torturing victims or committing bizarre sexual acts such as necrophilia), and seemed more normal in childhood.
----------------------
Hefei Wen, Jason Hockenberry & Janet Cummings
NBER Working Paper, October 2014
Abstract:
We examine the effect of increasing the substance use disorder (SUD) treatment rate on reducing violent and property crime rates, based on county-level panels of SUD treatment and crime data between 2001 and 2008 across the United States. To address the potential endogeneity of the SUD treatment rate with respect to crime rate, we exploit the exogenous variation in the SUD treatment rate induced by two state-level policies, namely insurance expansions under the Health Insurance Flexibility and Accountability (HIFA) waivers and parity mandates for SUD treatment. Once we address the endogeneity issue, we are able to demonstrate an economically meaningful reduction in the rates of robbery, aggravated assault and larceny theft attributable to an increased SUD treatment rate. A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that a 10 percent relative increase in the SUD treatment rate at an average cost of $1.6 billion yields a crime reduction benefit of $2.5 billion to $4.8 billion. Our findings suggest that expanding insurance coverage and benefits for SUD treatment is an effective policy lever to improve treatment use, and the improved SUD treatment use can effectively and cost-effectively promote public safety through crime reduction.
----------------------
Your Friends and Neighbors: Localized Economic Development and Criminal Activity
Matthew Freedman & Emily Owens
Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We exploit a sudden shock to demand for a subset of low-wage workers generated by the 2005 Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) program in San Antonio, Texas to identify the effects of localized economic development on crime. We use a difference-in-differences methodology that takes advantage of variation in BRAC's impact over time and across neighborhoods. We find that appropriative criminal behavior increases in neighborhoods where a fraction of residents experienced increases in earnings. This effect is driven by residents who were unlikely to be BRAC beneficiaries, implying that criminal opportunities are important in explaining patterns of crime.
----------------------
Assessing the Relationship Between Police Use of Force and Inmate Offending (Rule Violations)
Charles Klahm, Benjamin Steiner & Benjamin Meade
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
We assess the effects of exposure to police use of force on inmates' odds of offending in prison using survey data collected from a national sample of inmates. We found, net of relevant controls, prisoners subjected to police violence were more likely to engage in assaultive and other rule violating behavior, especially those who did not resist police authority. Consistent with the cycle of violence hypothesis, our findings suggest violence perpetrated by legal authorities produces similar effects to exposure to violence in general. Moreover, the consequences of police use of force are especially problematic when the recipient fails to perceive his or her treatment was fair, which supports the theoretical perspective on procedural fairness and legitimacy. Policy implications are discussed.
----------------------
Dionissi Aliprantis & Daniel Hartley
Federal Reserve Working Paper, October 2014
Abstract:
This paper estimates the effect that the closure and demolition of roughly 20,000 units of geographically concentrated high-rise public housing had on crime in Chicago. We estimate local effects of closures on crime in the neighborhoods where high-rises stood and in proximate neighborhoods. We also estimate the impact that households displaced from high-rises had on crime in the neighborhoods to which they moved and neighborhoods close to those. Overall, reductions in violent crime in and near the areas where high-rises were demolished greatly outweighed increases in violent crime associated with the arrival of displaced residents in new neighborhoods.
----------------------
How Do Mafias Organize? Conflict and Violence in Three Mafia Organizations
Maurizio Catino
European Journal of Sociology, August 2014, Pages 177-220
Abstract:
This article looks at three Italian mafia organizations (Cosa Nostra, Camorra, and 'Ndrangheta). It applies an organizational approach to the understanding of violence in mafia organizations by studying the relationship between their organizational orders and their criminal behavior. The article identifies two different organizational orders, vertical and horizontal, and demonstrates that Italian mafias, although operating in similar environments, can greatly differ from each other, and over time, in terms of their organizational model. Findings suggest that mafias with a vertical organizational order, due to the presence of higher levels of coordination, (1) have greater control over conflict, as proved by the lower number of "ordinary" murders; and (2) have greater capacity to fight state repression, as testified by the greater number of "high-profile" assassinations (e.g. politicians, magistrates, and other institutional members) that they carry out. Evidence is provided using a mixed-methods approach that combines a qualitative, organizational analysis of historical and judiciary sources, in order to reconstruct the organizational models and their evolution over time, with a quantitative analysis of assassination trends, in order to relate organizational orders to the use of violence.
----------------------
Jordan Hyatt & Geoffrey Barnes
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article reports the results of an experimental evaluation of the impact of Intensive Supervision Probation (ISP) on probationer recidivism. Participants, who were assessed at an increased likelihood of committing serious crimes and not ordered to specialized supervision, were randomly assigned to ISP (n = 447) or standard probation (n = 385). ISP probationers received more restrictive supervision and experienced more office contacts, home visitations, and drug screenings. After 12 months, there was no difference in offending. This equivalence holds across multiple types of crimes, including violent, non-violent, property, and drug offenses, as well as in a survival analysis conducted for each offense type. ISP probationers absconded from supervision, were charged with technical violations, and were incarcerated at significantly higher rates. Policy implications for these results are discussed.
----------------------
Shackled labor markets: Bounding the causal effects of criminal convictions in the U.S.
Jeremiah Richey
International Review of Law and Economics, March 2015, Pages 17-24
Abstract:
This paper examines the causal effects of criminal convictions on labor market outcomes in young men using U.S. data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort. Unlike previous research in this area which relies on assumptions strong enough to obtain point identification, this paper imposes relatively weak nonparametric assumptions that provide tight bounds on treatment effects. Even in the absence of a parametric model, under certain specifications, a zero effect can be ruled out, though after a bias correction this result is lost. In general the results for the effect on yearly earnings align well with previous findings, though the estimated effect on weeks worked are smaller than in previous findings which focused on the effects of incarceration. The bounds here indicate the penalty from convictions, but not incarceration, lowers weeks worked by at most 1.55 weeks for white men and at most 4 weeks for black men. Interestingly, when those ever incarcerated are removed from the treatment group for black men, there does not appear to be any effect of convictions on earnings or wages but only on weeks worked.
----------------------
Andrew Bausch & Thomas Zeitzoff
Political Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
How does incomplete information about counter-terror provisions influence the strategic interaction between a government, terrorist groups, and the citizenry? We investigate this research question using a laboratory experiment and present two key findings. (1) Public counter-terror spending leads citizens to overly frequent "protected" targets such that it makes them easier targets for terrorists. (2) Additionally, we show that citizens over-estimate government counter-terror spending when they are unable to observe it. These findings suggest that asymmetric information and the small probability of a successful terrorist attack may lead to the inefficient provision of counter-terror. We also connect the findings to the larger literature on the principal-agent relationship between citizens and elected officials.
----------------------
Vasileia Varvarigou et al.
British Medical Journal, November 2014
Objective: To assess the association between risk of sudden cardiac death and stressful law enforcement duties compared with routine/non-emergency duties.
Participants: Summaries of deaths of over 4500 US police officers provided by the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund and the Officer Down Memorial Page from 1984 to 2010.
Results: 441 sudden cardiac deaths were observed during the study period. Sudden cardiac death was associated with restraints/altercations (25%, n=108), physical training (20%, n=88), pursuits of suspects (12%, n=53), medical/rescue operations (8%, n=34), routine duties (23%, n=101), and other activities (11%, n=57). Compared with routine/non-emergency activities, the risk of sudden cardiac death was 34-69 times higher during restraints/altercations, 32-51 times higher during pursuits, 20-23 times higher during physical training, and 6-9 times higher during medical/rescue operations. Results were robust to all sensitivity and stability analyses.
Conclusions: Stressful law enforcement duties are associated with a risk of sudden cardiac death that is markedly higher than the risk during routine/non-emergency duties. Restraints/altercations and pursuits are associated with the greatest risk. Our findings have public health implications and suggest that primary and secondary cardiovascular prevention efforts are needed among law enforcement officers.
----------------------
Maryse Richards et al.
Psychology of Violence, forthcoming
Objective: The traditional use of retrospective self-report to measure exposure to community violence over long periods of time has limitations overcome by an approach described here. This article explores an innovative approach in assessing community violence exposure with time-sampling methodology, where reporting occurs within daily accounts to provide a more immediate measure of community violence exposure.
Method: Data were collected over 1 week from 169 urban African American young adolescents (M age = 11.7 years, SD = .70, 62% female) using questionnaires and the Daily Sampling Method, a diary technique that captures a child's daily accounts of community violence exposure (DCVE).
Results: Analyses revealed youth experienced 841 total violent incidents, or close to 1 daily incident per youth for the week. As expected, the majority of incidents occurred between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m., and in public settings. Unexpectedly, higher rates of both victimization and witnessing occurred during weekdays compared with weekend days, and girls reported significantly more DCVE than boys. The DCVE provide a unique glimpse into the more immediate experience of life in high-risk neighborhoods.
Conclusion: This study underscores the need to measure DCVE in ways that address the daily experience of youth living in high-risk environments. By identifying timing and location of exposure, we can develop interventions to keep youth safer from violence exposure.
----------------------
Bianca Easterly
Policy Studies Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
Despite a decline in crime rates, the 1990s witnessed extensive media coverage of several high-profile stranger abductions and murders of children. State legislators' swift response to the public's growing fear of sex offenders with the adoption of sex offender registration and notification (SORN) laws raises questions about the role of politics. Punctuated equilibrium theory and the diffusion of innovation jointly provide a context to conduct an event history analysis to assess the extent to which politics enhanced legislative responsiveness to public opinion in SORN policymaking. Contrary to the commonly held belief that attributes legislative interest in SORN to salient crimes against children, the results suggest that factors such as the percentage of a conservative population, district-level competition, and state innovativeness accelerated the diffusion of innovation of the laws.
----------------------
Foreclosure, Vacancy and Crime
Lin Cui & Randall Walsh
NBER Working Paper, October 2014
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of residential foreclosures and vacancies on violent and property crime. To overcome confounding factors, a difference-in-difference research design is applied to a unique data set containing geocoded foreclosure and crime data from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Results indicate that while foreclosure alone has no effect on crime, violent crime rates increase by roughly 19% once the foreclosed home becomes vacant - an effect that increases with length of vacancy. We find weak evidence suggesting a potential vacancy effect for property crime that is much lower in magnitude.
----------------------
The Effects of Prison-Based Educational Programming on Recidivism and Employment
Grant Duwe & Valerie Clark
Prison Journal, December 2014, Pages 454-478
Abstract:
This study evaluated the effectiveness of prison-based educational programming by examining the effects of obtaining secondary and post-secondary degrees on recidivism and post-release employment outcomes among offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2007 and 2008. Obtaining a secondary degree in prison significantly increased the odds of securing post-release employment but did not have a significant effect on recidivism or other employment measures such as hourly wage, total hours worked, or total wages earned. Earning a post-secondary degree in prison, however, was associated with greater number of hours worked, higher overall wages, and less recidivism.
----------------------
The National Football League: Does Crime Increase on Game Day?
David Kalist & Daniel Lee
Journal of Sports Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article investigates the effects of National Football League (NFL) games on crime. Using a panel data set that includes daily crime incidences in eight large cities with NFL teams, we examine how various measurements of criminal activities change on game day compared with nongame days. Our findings from both ordinary least squares and negative binomial regressions indicate that NFL home games are associated with a 2.6% increase in total crimes, while financially motivated crimes such as larceny and motor vehicle theft increase by 4.1% and 6.7%, respectively, on game days. However, we observe that play-off games are associated with a decrease in financially motivated crimes. The effects of game time (afternoon vs. evening) and upset wins and losses on crime are also considered.
----------------------
Valerie Clark
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
Separate studies have shown that a variety of postrelease housing placements for returning prisoners can significantly influence recidivism. Research has also found that contextual factors such as economic disadvantage can also significantly predict recidivism. This study combines those lines of research by examining the effects of five categories of postrelease housing placements as well as contextual measures of economic disadvantage on recidivism for newly released Minnesota state prisoners. Using multilevel analysis techniques, this research found that with one exception, certain postrelease housing situations, along with several other individual-level control variables, were more robust predictors of recidivism than contextual measures of disadvantage and poverty. This study highlights the significant impact that postrelease housing placements can have on the reentry process.
----------------------
Foreclosures and crime: A city-level analysis in Southern California of a dynamic process
John Hipp & Alyssa Chamberlain
Social Science Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although a growing body of research has examined and found a positive relationship between neighborhood crime and home foreclosures, some research suggests this relationship may not hold in all cities. This study uses city-level data to assess the relationship between foreclosures and crime by estimating longitudinal models with lags for monthly foreclosure and crime data in 128 cities from 1996 to 2011 in Southern California. We test whether these effects are stronger in cities with a combination of high economic inequality and high economic segregation; and whether they are stronger in cities with high racial/ethnic heterogeneity and high racial segregation. One month, and cumulative three month, six month, and 12-month lags of foreclosures are found to increase city level crime for all crimes except motor vehicle theft. The effect of foreclosures on these crime types is stronger in cities with simultaneously high levels of inequality but low levels of economic segregation. The effect of foreclosures on aggravated assault, robbery, and burglary is stronger in cities with simultaneously high levels of racial heterogeneity and low levels of racial segregation. On the other hand, foreclosures had a stronger effect on larceny and motor vehicle theft when they occurred in a city with simultaneously high levels of racial heterogeneity and high levels of racial segregation. There is evidence that the foreclosure crisis had large scale impacts on cities, leading to higher crime rates in cities hit harder by foreclosures. Nonetheless, the economic and racial characteristics of the city altered this effect.
----------------------
Bonita Veysey, Michael Ostermann & Jennifer Lanterman
Prison Journal, December 2014, Pages 435-453
Abstract:
In 2003, the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, in collaboration with other federal partner agencies provided approximately US$110 million in funding to all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the U.S. Virgin Islands to develop and/or fill gaps in reentry strategies through the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative (SVORI). This article describes the New Jersey SVORI intervention approach and evaluates its relative impacts on participants' rearrest rates. SVORI participants are compared with randomly selected parolees (n = 100) and unconditional releases (n = 100) that did not receive services through SVORI but otherwise met the inclusion criteria of the New Jersey SVORI intervention. Results indicate that SVORI participants were rearrested at a significantly lower rate during the follow-up period when compared with both of the non-SVORI groups. Policy issues are discussed by the authors.
----------------------
Is the 'Shadow of Sexual Assault' Responsible for Women's Higher Fear of Burglary?
Helmut Hirtenlehner & Stephen Farrall
British Journal of Criminology, November 2014, Pages 1167-1185
Abstract:
This article examines the 'shadow of sexual assault hypothesis' which posits that women's higher fear of crime, compared to males, can be attributed to their elevated fear of sexual victimization. We argue that the previous, overwhelmingly supportive, research on this issue is incomplete in three ways: (1) the thesis has not yet been extensively tested outside of North America, (2) competing, possibly overlaying, shadow effects of physical violence have widely been ignored and (3) perceptually contemporaneous offences have always been measured in an indirect manner. Drawing on the example of fear of burglary, this work tackles the aforementioned deficiencies. Results from a crime survey conducted in the United Kingdom indicate that, when relying on a rather traditional test strategy, the 'shadow of sexual assault hypothesis' is supported. However, the findings are highly contingent on the employed methodology. When utilizing direct measures of perceptually contemporaneous offences, only physical, not sexual, assault turns out to cast a shadow over fear of burglary. The impact of fear of rape would appear to be reduced considerably once fear of broader physical harm is taken into account. We conclude that much of the existing evidence for the shadow thesis can be challenged on the grounds of failing to control for the effects of non-sexual physical assault and drawing on an inadequate operationalization of perceptually contemporaneous offences.
----------------------
Lorine Hughes, Lonnie Schaible & Benjamin Gibbs
Sociological Inquiry, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article presents a cross-national test of Messner and Rosenfeld's (1994) institutional anomie theory. Drawing on multiple data sources, including the United Nations, World Bank, World Values Survey, and Heritage Foundation, we examine relationships between economic dominance, indicators of culture, and homicide among a sample of 50 nations. Additionally, we assess the thesis of "American exceptionalism," a unique cultural complex implicated by Messner and Rosenfeld as a cause of high rates of serious crime in the United States. Results from OLS regression models provide mixed support for the theory. While none of the theoretical predictors exhibits a statistically significant direct effect on homicide, findings suggest that homicide occurs most often in countries where free-market principles and practices drive the economy and where core cultural commitments are oriented toward achievement, individualism, fetishism of money, and universalism. However, contrary to expectations, the impact of a market-driven economy is not more pronounced in countries with weakened non-economic institutions, and results provide only limited evidence in support of the American exceptionalism thesis. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed.