Developing Nostalgia
The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal
Davis Kedrosky & Nuno Palma
Journal of Economic History, forthcoming
Abstract:
As late as 1750, Portugal had a high output per head by Western European standards. Yet just a century later, Portugal was this region’s poorest country. In this paper, we show that the discovery of massive quantities of gold in Brazil over the eighteenth century played a key role in the long-run development of Portugal. The country suffered from an economic and political resource curse. A counterfactual based on synthetic control methods suggests that by 1800 Portugal’s GDP per capita was 40 percent lower than it would have been without its endowment of Brazilian gold.
The Death and Life of Great British Cities
Stephan Heblich et al.
NBER Working Paper, July 2025
Abstract:
Does industrial concentration shape the life and death of cities? We identify settlements from historical maps of England and Wales (1790–1820), isolate exogenous variation in their late 19th-century size and industrial concentration, and estimate the causal impact of size and concentration on later dynamics. Industrial concentration has a negative effect on long-run productivity -- independent of industry trends and consistent with cross-industry Jacobs externalities. A spatial model quantifies the role of fundamentals, industry trends, and Jacobs externalities in shaping industry-city dynamics and isolates a new, dynamic trade-off in the design of place-based policies.
Ancestral and Contemporary Influences of Sociopolitical Complexity, Macroeconomic Development, and State Functioning on the Quality of Infrastructure
Mateo Peñaherrera-Aguirre et al.
Evolutionary Psychological Science, June 2025, Pages 115-131
Abstract:
The present study examined the influence of ancestral variation in sociopolitical complexity (stratification and centralization), macroeconomic development, state functioning, and within-nations competition (operationalized as corruption and homicide) on the overall quality of infrastructure in a sample of 121 contemporary nation-states. A Sequential Canonical Cascade model was statistically significant and explained 56% of the variance. The model indicated that biogeographic regions predicted ancestral stratification, which in turn had a positive influence on ancestral centralization. The analysis also revealed that ancestral centralization positively predicted a contemporary macroeconomic factor combining GDP per capita with a reverse-scored Gini coefficient. Better macroeconomic conditions positively influenced overall state functioning, which, in turn, reduced nations’ internal competition (as demonstrated by lower levels of corruption and homicide). The quality of infrastructure was negatively predicted by homicide and corruption and positively predicted by state functioning, confirming that strong institutions enforcing cooperation and punishing within-group competition can yield superior infrastructure. These results strongly suggest that ancestral sociopolitical conditions indirectly contribute to the development of contemporary nations, particularly macroeconomic factors, overall state functioning, and infrastructure quality. Subsequent analyses controlling for shared macrohistorical and biocultural ancestry between nations indicated that state functioning remained a positive contributor to the quality of infrastructure, with this model explaining 38% of the variance.
Polygenic Associations With Educational Attainment in East Versus West Germany: Differences Emerge After Reunification
Deniz Fraemke et al.
Psychological Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using a DNA-based polygenic index, we explored geographical and historical differences in polygenic associations with educational attainment in East and West Germany around the time of reunification. This index was derived from a prior genome-wide association study on educational attainment in democratic countries. In 1,930 individuals aged 25 to 85 years from the SOEP-G[ene] cohort, the magnitude of polygenic associations with educational attainment did not differ between East and West Germany before reunification but increased in East Germany thereafter. This gene–environment interaction remained robust when we probed for variance dispersion. A control analysis using a polygenic index of height suggests that this interaction is unlikely to reflect a general trend toward greater genetic associations in East Germany after reunification. The observed amplification of education-genetic associations aligns with theories suggesting heightened genetic influences on educational attainment during periods of greater social and educational opportunity. We emphasize the need for replication in larger German genetic data sets.
Political Liberation, Hope, and Social Competition Are the Motor of Secular Trends in Height
Christiane Scheffler, Detlef Groth & Michael Hermanussen
American Journal of Human Biology, July 2025
Sample and Methods: Height of men of the German Armed Forces born between 1865 and 1975 was correlated with indicators of economic prosperity (GDP), nutrition and health (infant mortality), and indicators of social inhomogeneity (income inequality and household wealth share). The time periods before 1916, between 1916 and 1933, 1947, 1973, and after 1989 were separately analyzed. Coherence analysis was used to assess the changes in the temporal trends.
Results: Mean height of young adult men increased by 0.45 mm/year (before 1916), by 2.15 mm/year (1916–1933), by 1.87 mm/year in the early Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) until 1973, by 1.45 mm/year in the late FRG, and by 4 mm/year in East German conscripts after the reunification in 1989. The most substantial height increments occurred in periods of political upheaval and loss of state authority.
The paradox of slave collateral
Rajesh Narayanan & Jonathan Pritchett
Explorations in Economic History, July 2025
Abstract:
As mobile financial assets, slaves have high liquidation value that makes them desirable as loan collateral. The mobility of slaves also makes them insecure collateral because borrowers could sell slaves to outside buyers or move them beyond the reach of creditors. We contend that creditors balanced the opposing forces of liquidity and security in deciding whether to extend credit against slave collateral. Using an original sample of New Orleans mortgage and sales records, we find that relatively few loans were backed with slave collateral and that slave buyers paid higher interest rates for their loans.
Firewood in the American Economy: 1700 to 2010
Nicholas Muller
NBER Working Paper, June 2025
Abstract:
Despite the central role of firewood in the development of the early American economy, prices for this energy fuel are absent from official government statistics and the scholarly literature. This paper presents the most comprehensive dataset of firewood prices in the United States compiled to date, encompassing over 6,000 price quotes from 1700 to 2010. Between 1700 and 2010, real firewood prices increased by between 0.2% and 0.4%, annually, and from 1800 to the Civil War, real prices increased especially rapidly, between 0.7% and 1% per year. Rising firewood prices and falling coal prices led to the transition to coal as the primary energy fuel. Between 1860 and 1890, the income elasticity for firewood switched from 0.5 to -0.5. Beginning in the last decade of the 18th century, firewood output increased from about 18% of GDP to just under 30% of GDP in the 1830s. The value of firewood fell to less than 5% of GDP by the 1880s. Prior estimates of firewood output in the 19th century significantly underestimated its value. Finally, incorporating the new estimates of firewood output into agricultural production leads to higher estimates of agricultural productivity growth prior to 1860 than previously reported in the literature.
Social Mobility in the Long Run: An Analysis of Tongcheng, China, 1300 to 1900
Carol Shiue
Journal of Economic History, June 2025, Pages 370-410
Abstract:
This study examines intergenerational mobility in China over 6 centuries using unique genealogical data on father-son pairs from 7 clans in Tongcheng County. Covering 18 generations and approximately 40,000 individuals, the analysis spans a broad set of social classes, from ordinary people to jinshi degree holders. The findings indicate that although social mobility was slow to change, mobility nonetheless underwent a sizable increase during the seventeenth century. The timing of the trends corroborates a number of key changes that affected mobility for commoners and for the highly educated elites. The results also show that intergenerational mobility and inequality are negatively correlated in the time series, a pattern previously observed in cross-sectional studies and commonly known as the Great Gatsby curve.
The Enduring Legacy of Educational Institutions: Evidence from Hyanggyo in Pre-Modern Korea
Yeonha Jung, Minki Kim & Munseob Lee
University of California Working Paper, May 2025
Abstract:
This study examines the long-term impact of Hyanggyo, state-sponsored educational institutions established during the early Joseon Dynasty in Korea (1392-1592), on modern human capital accumulation. Although these schools largely ceased functioning as educational centers by the late 16th century, we hypothesize that their influence endured through persistent cultural transmission. Drawing on a newly constructed township-level dataset, we find a robust positive association between historical exposure to Hyanggyo and educational attainment from the 1930s to the 2010s. This relationship appears to be driven by enduring local demand for education, supported by three complementary findings. First, regions with greater historical exposure experienced larger gains in Japanese literacy during colonial-era school expansions. Second, residents in these areas express stronger pro-education attitudes today. Third, historically exposed regions exhibited lower fertility rates, consistent with a quantity–quality tradeoff in parental investment. Together, these results highlight the lasting legacy of early educational institutions.