Criminal Thinking
Criminogenic risk factors among immigrants in the U.S.–México border region
Jennifer Eno Louden et al.
Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, forthcoming
Abstract:
Despite media portrayals to the contrary, immigrants to the United States tend to commit less crime than U.S.-born citizens. However, the factors underlying this at the individual level are not fully understood. To examine this, we conducted two complementary studies among individuals in the U.S.–México border region who were recently booked into jail. In the first study, we examined the current charges and pretrial risk assessments of 5,175 successive intakes to the jail. Compared to U.S.-born citizens, immigrants had less extensive criminal histories and were less likely to have current drug charges, though they had higher rates of current “driving under the influence” charges. In the second study, we interviewed and conducted structured risk assessments with a sample of 273 individuals booked to the jail. We found that immigrants, particularly undocumented immigrants, had lower levels of seven of the central eight risk factors for crime, and that higher levels of acculturation toward U.S. culture were associated with higher levels of risk. We also found that undocumented immigrants were less likely than U.S.-born citizens or documented immigrants to be booked on serious charges such as violence or “driving under the influence,” and most (58%) were booked on offenses related to illegal immigration (e.g., illegal entry). We conclude that policies limiting immigration (particularly from México) based on the idea that immigrants are prone to crime are misguided given our finding that jailed immigrants have low levels of criminal risk factors. We discuss our findings within the context of informing correctional policy, practice, and research.
From Headlines to Handcuffs: Local News Coverage of Immigrant Crime and Hispanic Arrest
Ashley Muchow & Taisiia Stanishevska
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Despite strong evidence that immigration does not increase crime, news coverage portraying immigrants as criminal threats remains widespread. While these portrayals are well documented, less is known about whether they shape patterns of criminal justice contact -- particularly for Hispanics, who are often stereotyped as undocumented and criminal regardless of their legal status. Drawing on a decade of local television news broadcasts and arrest data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (2009–2018), we examine whether media portrayals of immigrant-perpetrated violent crime influence Hispanic arrest outcomes. Fixed-effects panel models show that such coverage is associated with higher Hispanic arrest rates, particularly for more discretionary arrests, including those made on-view and for drug-related offenses. These findings suggest that media coverage may contribute to racialized enforcement outcomes, underscoring the broader implications of politicized immigration discourse for Hispanic communities.
Facilitating police reform: Body cameras, police-involved homicides, and law enforcement outcomes
Taeho Kim
Journal of Public Economics, August 2025
Abstract:
Body-worn cameras (BWCs) have emerged as a crucial reform to restore police legitimacy. However, there remains limited evidence on the conditions under which BWCs reduce use of force and affect broader agency-wide outcomes. Using a quasi-experimental event study design, I analyze data from 593 U.S. police agencies to estimate the effects of BWC adoption. I find that reductions in police-involved homicides are heterogeneous -- concentrated in regions with higher prior levels of such incidents and in agencies with stricter activation requirements, with no measurable change in low-incident regions or agencies with weaker policies. This study also provides the first evidence on agency-wide outcomes, finding no significant trade-offs in overall arrest or crime rates. These findings offer insight into when BWCs are most likely to enhance police accountability and performance.
Do greater sanctions deter youth crime? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design
Nicholas Lovett & Yuhan Xue
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, August 2025
Abstract:
We exploit the discontinuous jump in criminal sanctions at the age of majority in conjunction with administrative data from California to generate regression discontinuity estimates of the deterrent effect. Estimates show that the greater severity imposed upon adolescents at age 18 deters violent crime by 10%–12%. Results are robust to multiple techniques and specifications. Using these results, we estimate an elasticity of crime with respect to sanction intensity that ranges from -0.145 to -0.174. We extend our results to demographic sub-populations and find female offenders, as well as white and Asian offenders, are relatively more responsive to sanctions.
Hidden Costs of Ban the Box Laws: Unraveling the Effects on Drug-Related Deaths
Oleksandra Cheipesh
Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Ban the Box (BTB) laws delay criminal background checks until the later stages of the hiring process. This study provides new evidence that BTB laws that apply to both private and public employers have negative spillover effects beyond labor market outcomes. Drawing on data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), I investigate the impact of BTB laws on drug-related mortality. Two years after adoption, BTB laws are associated with more than a 35 percent increase in drug-related mortality among Black and Hispanic men. The main mechanism appears to be diminished labor opportunities. BTB adoption reduces wages and the probability of employment among Black and Hispanic men.
The impact of economic opportunity on criminal behavior: Evidence from the fracking boom
Brittany Street
Journal of Public Economics, August 2025
Abstract:
Theory suggests crime should decrease as economic opportunities increase the returns to legal activities. However, the current literature shows crime increases when areas experience fracking, a source of increased local economic opportunity. This paper reconciles this puzzle by separating out existing residents and isolating local economic effects from changing composition. Specifically, I exploit within- and across-county variation in fracking activities in North Dakota using individual-level data on incumbent residents, mineral lease records, and criminal charges. The results rule out increases in crime for these existing residents and suggest a modest decrease. These results are consistent with theory and in contrast to the observed aggregate increases in crime from fracking, highlighting the importance of compositional changes.
Modeling police officers’ deadly force decisions in an immersive shooting simulator
Timothy Pleskac et al.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, forthcoming
Abstract:
We used an immersive shooting simulator to examine how race, suspect behavior, and policing scenario shape officers’ deadly force decisions. Officers (N = 659) from the Milwaukee Police Department responded to dynamic video scenarios using realistic handgun responses. Mistaken shootings of unarmed Black suspects were more likely than of White suspects, but only when the suspects behaved nonantagonistically. Cognitive modeling showed this race effect arose not from an initial bias to shoot but from differences in evidence accumulation once the object was visible. Scenario and suspect behavior had the largest overall influence, shaping decisions by altering initial proclivity to shoot. Further analysis suggested that suspect behavior within specific scenarios may partially explain observed race effects. These findings provide a process-level account of deadly force decisions, integrating real-world complexity with psychological theory, and offer a framework for improving research and training around police use-of-force.
Criminal Conflicts and the Killing of Law Enforcement Officers in Mexico
Marco Alcocer
Journal of Conflict Resolution, forthcoming
Abstract:
Violence against law enforcement by criminal organizations is pervasive in Latin America yet largely unexplored. What explains why and where law enforcement is violently attacked, who is targeted, and how they are killed? This article contends that conflicts between criminal organizations incentivize warring organizations to attack law enforcement, particularly local officers, with more brazen violence. Two original datasets on killings of law enforcement in Mexico show that killings are overwhelmingly of local officers and most frequently perpetrated through coordinated attacks, not confrontations, executions, or kidnappings. Using data on cartels, I first document a strong association between criminal conflicts and the killing of law enforcement officers, and find that the association is driven by killings of state and municipal officers rather than federal officers enforcing the government crackdown. I further show that criminal conflicts increase brazen killings and killings of officers while off duty.
Does Police Proactivity Impact Arrests? Examining Variation Across Individual Officers
Trey Bussey & Jessica Huff
Police Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Police officers and citizens come into contact either when a citizen requests police service or when an officer proactively stops a citizen. One of the most consequential outcomes of these encounters is the decision to arrest. However, little research has examined whether the likelihood of arrest differs by type of citizen contact or across officers. Using mixed-effects regression models that nest 850,000+ police-citizen contacts within 813 Phoenix Police Officers, we examine whether proactive (i.e., officer-initiated) or reactive (i.e., citizen-generated) events are more likely to produce an arrest. Separate models and equivalence tests identify predictors of arrest for each encounter type. Results indicate that officer-initiated events were significantly more likely to result in arrest than citizen-generated calls. Officer-level factors were also stronger predictors of arrest during proactive contacts. As such, future research focused on police proactivity must move beyond event and citizen characteristics to consider the influence of officers themselves.
Policing now, Gentrification Later? The Case of Civil Gang Injunctions in Los Angeles
Caylin Louis Moore & Rebecca Gleit
Urban Affairs Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
While most research examines how gentrification influences policing, we interrogate the opposite. Specifically, we ask whether intensified policing in a disinvested neighborhood can encourage later gentrification. To explore this, we focus on civil gang injunctions (CGIs) in the City of Los Angeles -- a legal tool that targets Black and Latinx neighborhoods by criminalizing alleged gang members’ public presence. Using geospatial methods and a quasi-experimental design, we compare gentrification rates in CGI-impacted neighborhoods with observably similar non-CGI “control” neighborhoods. Our findings show that CGIs can instigate gentrification in neighborhoods with sufficient “White Visibility” -- a minor but noticeable number of White residents. In these cases, policing seems to act as a buffer that draws new, higher socioeconomic status residents to disinvested neighborhoods. This article contributes to broader theories of social control and urban transformation by identifying conditions under which criminal justice policies can actively shape neighborhood change.