Brave Old World
Why Muslims like democracy yet have so little of it
Robbert Maseland & André van Hoorn
Public Choice, June 2011, Pages 481-496
Abstract:
This paper explains the observed combination of relatively low levels of democracy and positive attitudes towards it in the Muslim world. It argues that this democracy paradox is understandable from the perspective of the principle of diminishing marginal utility: people value highly that of which they have little. This reasoning implies, however, that surveys like the World Values Surveys (WVS) elicit circumstance-driven marginal preferences rather than culturally determined attitudinal traits. Empirical evidence showing that individuals living in undemocratic societies have much more favorable inclinations towards democracy supports our argument.
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Arch Puddington
Journal of Democracy, April 2011, Pages 17-31
Abstract:
Freedom in the World 2011, the latest edition of Freedom House's annual survey of global political rights and civil liberties, showed that conditions worsened for the fifth consecutive year. The multiyear spate of backsliding is the longest of its kind since Freedom in the World was first published in 1972. The number of countries exhibiting declines for the past year (25), was substantially higher than the number showing gains (11). The number of countries designated as Free dropped from 89 to 87, but more disturbing was the further decline in the number of electoral democracies, from 116 to 115, putting the figure well below its 2005 level of 123.
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Moral Judgments of the Powerless and Powerful in Violent Intergroup Conflicts
Joseph Vandello, Kenneth Michniewicz & Nadav Goldschmied
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
The present research examined observers' moral judgments of groups in conflict. Study 1 found support for the prediction that actions are interpreted as more moral in the context of low power. People judged the violent actions of a fictitious group as more moral and justifiable when done by a smaller, less powerful country compared to a larger one. However, a second study found that violence may undermine the moral advantage accorded underdog groups. People reading about Israeli construction of settlements in Palestinian territories judged the Israeli actions to be more moral when Palestinians resisted violently compared to when they used non-violent resistance tactics. Together, these studies demonstrate how moral judgments of the actions of groups in conflict are influenced by contextual factors independent of the actions themselves.
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The Triumph of Silence: President George H. W. Bush's Refusal to Denounce Apartheid in South Africa
William Forrest Harlow
Rhetoric & Public Affairs, Spring 2011, Pages 45-68
Abstract:
President George H. W. Bush was widely criticized for not publicly denouncing the apartheid regime in South Africa. His silence was attributed to a lack of understanding or caring about the issues at hand. However, President Bush was firmly aware of the situation and made an intentional strategic choice not to speak. In this paper, I argue that remaining silent was the best available strategic choice. In addition to the strategic question, I examine the role that silence plays in a democratic system where people expect their leaders to speak on critical issues.
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From Woodrow Wilson in 1902 to the Bush doctrine in 2002: Democracy promotion as imperialism
Tony Smith
International Politics, March/May 2011, Pages 229-250
Abstract:
The secular notion of American exceptionalism divorced from explicit racial or religious expression and based on governmental institutions and civic virtue - America as ‘the last, best hope of earth' (Lincoln), America as ‘the ark of the liberties of the world' (Melville) - goes back to the American Revolution. Nevertheless, before Wilson the conceptual framework that could explain the rightness of American global expansion in terms of bringing democratic government to others had not been well formulated. With Wilson, by contrast, the United States for the first time could present in secular terms, concepts argued from a cultural and historical perspective that made the expansion of American influence around the globe legitimate, not only in terms of national security but to the benefit of all mankind. Here is the key, I would propose, to the self-confidence and self-righteousness, which has been the hallmark of American foreign policy for a century now. Democracy promotion (associated with open markets economically and multilateralism) reflected America's cultural superiority (inherited from racial thinking), as well as its mission to help others (descended from its religious background). In Wilson's hands, an enduring framework for American foreign policy was born, one that remains with us to this day.
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James Graham Wilson
Journal of American Studies, May 2011, Pages 337-353
Abstract:
This article argues that the Jack Benny radio program reflected and illuminated America's sense of mission coming out of World War II by providing listeners with a conceptualization of a world in which the promotion of universal values was to usher in an era of lasting peace. A study of the Jack Benny Program from 1945 to 1950 illustrates how World War II changed the purpose of the show; how Jack Benny, his writers, and his cast understood notions of openness, pluralism, and internationalism; how the correlation they drew between social equality at home and international priorities abroad sometimes preempted official US policies; and how they provided, in the form of the show's central character, a model of supremely confident leadership in an era fraught with anxieties.
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Unintended Media Effects in a Conflict Environment: Serbian Radio and Croatian Nationalism
Stefano DellaVigna et al.
NBER Working Paper, May 2011
Abstract:
Do media broadcasts matter when they reach audiences that are not their target? In a conflict, the media may have an unintended effect of increasing ethnic animosity. We consider radio signals travelling across country borders in the region that witnessed one of Europe's deadliest conflicts since WWII: the Serbo-Croatian conflict in the Yugoslavian wars. Using survey data, we find that a large fraction of Croats listen to Serbian radio (intended for Serbian listeners across the border) whenever signal is available. Then, using official election results, we document that residents of Croatian villages with good-quality signal of Serbian public radio were more likely to vote for extreme nationalist parties, even after several years of peace time. Finally, ethnically-offensive graffiti are more likely to be exposed openly in the center of villages with Serbian radio reception. The effect is identified from the variation in the availability of the signal mostly due to topography and forestation. The results of a laboratory experiment confirm that Serbian radio exposure causes an increase in anti-Serbian sentiment among Croats.
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Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity
Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone
Econometrica, May 2011, Pages 923-947
Abstract:
We show that democratic change may be triggered by transitory economic shocks. Our approach uses within-country variation in rainfall as a source of transitory shocks to sub-Saharan African economies. We find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institutions. This result is consistent with the economic approach to political transitions, where transitory negative shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that following a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent, democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and the probability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentage points.
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The Party Politics of "Guns versus Butter" in Post-Vietnam America
Jungkun Seo
Journal of American Studies, May 2011, Pages 317-336
Abstract:
As the Vietnam War concluded with the failure of US foreign policy, the so-called "Cold War consensus" collapsed in American politics and society. A significant number of lawmakers came to revisit their national security positions, and under these circumstances the Anti-ballistic Missile (ABM) bills came up in the 91st Congress (1969-70). The costly missile program quickly stirred a major controversy, particularly over a trade-off between guns (defense budget) and butter (welfare spending). This article examines how and why party rank-and-file members in US Congress stayed the course or shifted their positions during the ABM debates. The empirical findings suggest that representatives did not immediately abandon their national security preferences, but rather employed gradual position shifts in legislative processes. In addition, institutional conditions such as "in-party" and "party-out-of-power" hindered or helped legislators' position reversals. This case study of the "guns-or-butter" debates in 1969 and 1970 sheds light on how the representative system in America works in response to public discomfort, with lawmakers trying to fine-tune their individual policy positions and collective party reputations simultaneously.
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Foreign policy, bipartisanship and the paradox of post-September 11 America
Peter Trubowitz & Nicole Mellow
International Politics, March/May 2011, Pages 164-187
Abstract:
The attacks of September 11 and the resulting war on terrorism present a puzzle to conventional explanations of foreign policy bipartisanship. Public anxiety about the international environment increased sharply after the attacks in 2001, but this did not translate into greater foreign policy consensus despite the initial predictions of many analysts. In this article, we advance a theory of foreign policy bipartisanship that emphasizes its domestic underpinnings to explain the absence of consensus in Washington. We argue that bipartisanship over foreign policy depends as much on domestic economic and electoral conditions as on the international security environment. Using multivariate analysis of roll call voting in the House of Representatives from 1889 to 2008, we show that bipartisanship over foreign policy is most likely not only when the country faces a foreign threat but also when the national economy is strong and when party coalitions are regionally diverse. This was the case during the Cold War. Despite concern about terrorism in recent years, economic volatility and regional polarization have made bipartisan cooperation over foreign policy elusive.
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Drafting Support for War: Conscription and Mass Support for Warfare
Michael Horowitz & Matthew Levendusky
Journal of Politics, April 2011, Pages 524-534
Abstract:
How does a military's recruitment policy - whether a country has a draft or conscript army - influence mass support for war? We investigate how military recruitment affects the way the American public evaluates whether a war is worth fighting. While some argue that conscription decreases support for war by making its costs more salient, others argue that it increases support by signaling the importance of the conflict. Existing evidence is inconclusive, with data limited to one particular conflict. Using an original survey experiment, we find strong support for the argument that conscription decreases mass support for war, a finding that replicates in several different settings. We also show that these findings are driven by concerns about self-interest, consistent with our theory. We conclude by discussing the relevance of these findings for debates about how domestic political conditions influence when states go to war.
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Michael Koch
British Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Research suggests that the costs of international conflict (e.g. casualties) alter public opinion, executive approval and policy positions of elected officials. However, do casualties affect voting in terms of aggregate outcomes and individual vote choices? This article examines how casualties from interstate conflicts affect voter behaviour, specifically incumbent vote share. Using the investment model of commitment to model individual vote choice, it is argued that increases in the costs of conflict (i.e., more casualties) can increase the probability that voters will support the incumbent, increasing incumbent vote share. This model is tested with both cross-national aggregate data from twenty-three countries and individual-level British survey data. The results support the argument.
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Global Social Identity and Global Cooperation
Nancy Buchan et al.
Psychological Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
This research examined the question of whether the psychology of social identity can motivate cooperation in the context of a global collective. Our data came from a multinational study of choice behavior in a multilevel public-goods dilemma conducted among samples drawn from the general populations of the United States, Italy, Russia, Argentina, South Africa, and Iran. Results demonstrate that an inclusive social identification with the world community is a meaningful psychological construct that plays a role in motivating cooperation that transcends parochial interests. Self-reported identification with the world as a whole predicts behavioral contributions to a global public good beyond what is predicted from expectations about what other people are likely to contribute. Furthermore, global social identification is conceptually distinct from general attitudes about global issues, and has unique effects on cooperative behavior.
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Not One of U.S.: Kate Adie's report of the 1986 US bombing of Tripoli and its critical aftermath
Michael Higgins & Angela Smith
Journalism Studies, May/June 2011, Pages 344-358
Abstract:
Although the professional activities of the war correspondent have commanded critical attention for much of the last century, discussion has intensified in recent years. This article seeks to place some of these debates within a longer-term perspective, by examining a broadcast by the BBC journalist Kate Adie, reporting on the US bombing of Tripoli in 1986: a broadcast that attracted widespread media and political hostility at the time, as well as prompting the governing Conservative Party to commission a report on perceived bias in BBC news reports. Using Adie's previously unavailable reporters' notebooks, as well as other contemporary material, the article examines the processes of drafting involved in the broadcast, including the discarded elements. The article outlines evidence of the configuration of human interest-driven news values for an environment of civilian injury and destruction, drawing upon a tradition of the war correspondent as "witness". The article suggests that accusations of a lack of objectivity on Adie's part failed to account for the role of a particular set of interpretive conventions in reporting the bombing's aftermath, and such broadcasts may be more productively assessed within discussions of "contextual objectivity" in war reporting.
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Political Risk, Reputation, and the Resource Curse
Nathan Jensen & Noel Johnston
Comparative Political Studies, June 2011, Pages 662-688
Abstract:
There is a growing literature on how natural resources affect both economic performance and political regimes. In this article the authors add to this literature by focusing on how natural resource wealth affects the incentives of governments to uphold contracts with foreign investors across all sectors. They argue that although all states suffer reputation costs from reneging on contracts, governments in natural-resource-dependent economies are less sensitive to these costs, leading to a greater probability of expropriation and contract disputes. Specifically, leaders weigh the benefits of reneging on contracts with investors against the reputation costs of openly violating agreements with firms. The authors' theoretical model predicts a positive association between resource wealth and expropriation. Using a data set from the political risk insurance industry, the authors show that resource dependent economies have much higher levels of political risk.
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US missile defence and China's nuclear posture: Changing dynamics of an offence-defence arms race
Baohui Zhang
International Affairs, May 2011, Pages 555-569
Abstract:
This article examines the rising prominence of strategic nuclear deterrence in Sino-US relations. China is the only major nuclear power that has been actively expanding its offensive capabilities. Its nuclear modernization has inevitably caused concerns in the United States. The article suggests that China's nuclear programme is driven significantly by US missile defence, which has fundamentally altered the incentive structures for Chinese nuclear deterrence. The article also assesses the latest Chinese perception of US strategic adjustment under the Obama administration and its potential impact on arms control. It reveals that recent measures by the United States to restrain its missile defense could be conducive for achieving a strategic nuclear understanding between the two countries. The article then suggests a number of concrete actions for China and the United States to realize such an understanding.
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A longitudinal study of euroscepticism in the Netherlands: 2008 versus 1990
Marcel Lubbers & Eva Jaspers
European Union Politics, March 2011, Pages 21-40
Abstract:
With a unique longitudinal data set covering a time-span of 18 years, we test to what extent euroscepticism evolved among the Dutch between 1990 and 2008. We compare Eurosceptic attitudes on the eve of the signing of the Treaty of Maastricht with attitudes after the Dutch ‘no' in the referendum on the European Constitution. We find a strong increase in euroscepticism among the Dutch. This change did not develop evenly across the educational strata. We propose to explain these differences through the utilitarian, political cueing, political cynicism and identity approaches. Over the years, the less educated have become more cynical about politics and have come to perceive a greater ethnic threat than before, which explains their stronger increase in euroscepticism. In contrast to 1990, perceived ethnic threat was the main predictor of euroscepticism in 2008.