Big Democracy
Flight to Safety: COVID-Induced Changes in the Intensity of Status Quo Preference and Voting Behavior
James Bisbee & Dan Honig
American Political Science Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
The relationship between anxiety and investor behavior is well known enough to warrant its own aphorism: a "flight to safety." We posit that anxiety alters the intensity of voters' preference for the status quo, inducing a political flight to safety toward establishment candidates. Leveraging the outbreak of the novel coronavirus during the Democratic primary election of 2020, we identify a causal effect of the outbreak on voting, with Biden benefiting between 7 and 15 percentage points at Sanders's expense. A survey experiment in which participants exposed to an anxiety-inducing prompt choose the less disruptive hypothetical candidate provides further evidence of our theorized flight to safety among US-based respondents. Evidence from 2020 French municipal and US House primary elections suggests a COVID-induced flight to safety generalizes to benefit mainstream candidates across a variety of settings. Our findings suggest an as-yet underappreciated preference for "safe" candidates in times of anxiety.
Snap Judgments: Predicting Politician Competence from Photos
Katherine Casey
Journal of Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Seminal studies show that naïve lab participants accurately predict who wins real-world elections based solely on candidate photos. It is unclear what this implies for the health of democracy without knowing whether candidates who look more electable or competent in photos behave more competently in office. This study brings novel performance data to this question and shows that voters can identify which politicians divert less public money and communicate more persuasively based solely on headshots. Such inferences do not predict politician effort visiting their constituencies, but neither do other available metrics like professional qualifications. I implement these studies in a low-income country where ballots include candidate photos and weak institutional checks raise the stakes for selecting innately competent leaders. Estimates provide an example of how voters' use of heuristics need not harm democratic accountability, and can actually enhance it, in cases where these shortcuts identify traits associated with good governance.
The 2020 presidential election and beliefs about fraud: Continuity or change?
Adam Enders et al.
Electoral Studies, August 2021
Abstract:
The 2020 presidential campaign was plagued by charges of voter fraud both before and after the election took place. While past literature finds that electoral losers are most likely to express misgivings about election integrity, little else is known about the characteristics of individuals who exhibit these beliefs or how the beliefs have changed over time. Employing national surveys from 2012, 2016, 2018, and 2020, we examine the levels of pre-election expectations of fraud in the event of an electoral loss over time, as well as the individual-level correlates of beliefs in a range of election-related conspiracy theories prominent in 2020. Our analysis reveals that beliefs in election fraud are common and stable across time, and only occasionally relate to partisanship. Moreover, we find that, even accounting for the influence of partisan motivated reasoning, several psychological orientations - conspiracy thinking, anomie, dark triad personality traits, and denialism - play a unique role in promoting perceptions of voter fraud.
More Money, More Turnout? Minimum Wage Increases and Voting
Zachary Markovich & Ariel White
Journal of Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do minimum wage increases mobilize low-income voters? We use administrative data to measure the effect of minimum wage increases on voting behavior. We merge public records of New York City municipal employee wages to voting records to observe changes in voting by people affected and unaffected by the minimum wage across multiple elections. Difference-in-differences estimates indicate that recent increases in New York's minimum wage increased voter turnout among low-income workers by several percentage points. These findings are robust to a range of specifications and merge approaches. Further, an analysis of county-level panel data from 1980-2016 demonstrates that minimum-wage increases are associated with increases in aggregate voter turnout across many contexts. These results imply that economic policy can have democratic implications, with minimum wage increases also serving to increase turnout among low-wage workers and make the electorate more representative.
"The quiet revolution": Convenience voting, vote centers, and turnout in Texas elections
Jeronimo Cortina & Brandon Rottinghaus
Politics, Groups, and Identities, forthcoming
Abstract:
Polling place consolidation makes administering voting easier but scholars question the effect on turnout. Vote centers (which consolidate polling locations) are theoretically less expensive to administer and convenient for many voters, but less is known about the impacts on specific racial communities or across election cycles. Using Texas' registered voters' list from the Secretary of State's Voting Division, this paper uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to calculate estimated driving distances from each registered voter's residence to a vote center location. The results show that the displacement of traditional precinct-level voting and the increase in distance between polling locations takes a greater toll on voter turnout for voters in midterm (but not presidential) elections and rural counties with more Latino voters. The implications demonstrate that vote centers can boost turnout in some elections but that the location of vote centers significantly effects turnout among ethnic minorities.
Vote Centers and the Voter Experience
Cynthia Chen, Arisa Sadeghpour & Matt Lamb
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
The scholarship regarding vote centers primarily focuses on their impact on voter turnout. Though previous literature suggests modest and conditional increases in voter participation, the mechanism by which vote centers increase participation is less understood. One suggested mechanism is that they provide voters a better experience at the polling place. In this article, we investigate whether voters who cast their ballot at vote centers have a better experience than those who vote at traditional precinct polling places. Utilizing a unique dataset collected from exit polls of Election Day voters before and after the implementation of vote centers in Harris County, Texas, we examine if vote centers improved the voters' experience. Contrary to theoretical expectations, we find that those who voted at a vote center reported having a more negative experience. This negative experience is driven primarily by longer lines and less helpful poll workers.
Racial Resentment, Electoral Loss, and Satisfaction with Democracy Among Whites in the United States: 2004-2016
Adam Enders & Judd Thornton
Political Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Satisfaction with democracy is a critical supporting element of any democratic process, though a robust literature demonstrates that such satisfaction is contingent on numerous personal preferences and situational contexts. Perhaps most disconcerting, satisfaction is highly correlated with electoral (mis)fortune -- winner or loser status. We theorize that this connection is moderated by a fundamental group orientation in American politics: racial resentment. Satisfaction with democracy should increase among white electoral losers as racial resentment increases when Republican candidates win and decrease as racial resentment strengthens when Democratic candidates win. In both scenarios, the connection between electoral (mis)fortune and satisfaction are moderated by a perception of whether the political system under the incoming president will be (unfairly) working better for others -- black Americans -- who are perceived to be less deserving of benefits. We find support for this argument using ANES presidential election data from 2004-2016. These results are robust to examination of only validated votes, panel data support the causal direction our theory posits, and we find that racial resentment uniquely moderates this relationship compared to related potential moderators, like ideological self-identification and racial stereotypes. More than petulance in the face of loss, (dis)satisfaction with democracy is a product of group orientations.
Who Votes: City Election Timing and Voter Composition
Zoltan Hajnal, Vladimir Kogan & Agustin Markarian
American Political Science Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Low and uneven turnout is a serious problem for local democracy. Fortunately, one simple reform - shifting the timing of local elections so they are held on the same day as national contests - can substantially increase participation. Considerable research shows that on-cycle November elections generally double local voter turnout compared to stand-alone local contests. But does higher turnout mean a more representative electorate? On that critical question, the evidence is slim and mixed. We combine information on election timing with detailed micro-targeting data that includes voter demographic information to examine how election timing influences voter composition in city elections. We find that moving to on-cycle elections in California leads to an electorate that is considerably more representative in terms of race, age, and partisanship - especially when these local elections coincide with a presidential election. Our results suggest that on-cycle elections can improve local democracy.
Who Does Voter ID Keep from Voting?
Bernard Fraga & Michael Miller
Journal of Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Voter identification laws have sparked concerns of vote suppression, but existing evidence relies on aggregate analyses or survey self-reports. We leverage unique information from Texas, where registrants without identification filed "Reasonable Impediment Declarations" (RIDs) before voting. Linking 16,000 RID forms to the Texas voter file, we provide the first direct documentation of the traits of voters who would be stopped from voting under strict identification laws. Our pre-registered analysis finds registrants voting without ID in 2016 were disproportionately Black and Latinx, versus voters voting with ID. Examining voters' stated reasons for not providing ID, we find socioeconomic hardships are not the most commonly cited impediment, but voters with hardships were less likely to vote in a strict ID election than those who previously had identification. Our findings indicate strict identification laws will stop a disproportionately minority, otherwise willing set of registered voters from voting.
Photo identification laws and perceptions of electoral fraud
Kyle Endres & Costas Panagopoulos
Research & Politics, July 2021
Abstract:
Photo identification (ID) laws are often passed on the premise that they will prevent voter fraud and/or reduce perceptions of electoral fraud. The impact of ID laws on perceptions of electoral fraud remains unsettled and is complicated by widespread confusion about current voting requirements. In the 2017 Virginia election, we fielded an experiment, with an advocacy organization, evaluating the effects of the organization's outreach campaign. We randomized which registered voters were mailed one of three informational postcards. After the election, we surveyed subjects about electoral integrity and their knowledge about election laws. We find that providing registrants with information on the state's photo ID requirements is associated with a reduction in perceptions of fraud and increased knowledge about voting requirements.
All-mail voting in Colorado increases turnout and reduces turnout inequality
Adam Bonica et al.
Electoral Studies, August 2021
Abstract:
The COVID-19 crisis has generated interest in all-mail voting (AMV) as a potential policy solution for avoiding in-person elections. However, the quality of AMV implementation has varied greatly across states, leading to mixed results in previous research. We exploit the understudied 2014 implementation of AMV in Colorado to estimate the effect on turnout for all registered voters, along with age, racial, education, income and wealth, and occupational subgroups. Using large voter file data and a difference-in-differences design within individuals, we find a positive overall turnout effect of approximately 8 percentage points - translating into an additional 900,000 ballots being cast between 2014 and 2018. Effects are significantly larger among lower-propensity voting groups, such as young people, blue-collar workers, voters with less educational attainment, and voters of color. The results suggest that researchers and policymakers should look to Colorado's AMV approach as an effective model for boosting aggregate turnout and reducing voting disparities across subgroups.
Vote-by-mail Ballot Rejection and Experience with Mail-in Voting
David Cottrell, Michael Herron & Daniel Smith
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although most ballots in the United States have historically been cast in-person, Americans are increasingly voting by mail, a trend that accelerated in the 2020 General Election. Mail ballots can be rejected after being cast, and our analysis of the Florida general elections of 2016, 2018, and 2020 shows that voters inexperienced with mail voting disproportionately submit ballots that end up rejected due to (1) late arrival at elections offices or (2) signature defects on return envelopes. Inexperienced mail voters are up to three times more likely to have their ballots rejected compared to experienced mail voters, and this inexperience penalty varies by a voter's party registration, race/ethnicity, and age. Our findings hold when controlling for additional voter characteristics and geographical fixed effects. The effect of inexperience on the likelihood of vote-by-mail ballot rejection risks exacerbating existing inequities in political representation already faced by younger and racial/ethnic minority voters.
Mobilizing and Demobilizing: Modern Sexism and Turnout in the #MeToo Era
Cindy Kam & Allison Archer
Public Opinion Quarterly, Spring 2021, Pages 172-182
Abstract:
Since the 2016 US presidential campaign and the rise of the #MeToo movement, issues of sexual assault and harassment have risen to prominence. At the same time, these issues have also been understood and evaluated through the lens of partisanship. The US Supreme Court confirmation hearings of Brett Kavanaugh exemplified these dynamics by providing clear partisan and emotion-laden cues to citizens. Given these events' temporal proximity to the midterms, we argue that the confirmation hearings not only amplified an ongoing conversation, but also heightened the effect of sexist predispositions on turnout. Using a unique online survey with validated voter turnout in the 2018 midterms, we find that higher levels of modern sexism increased turnout among Republicans while lower levels of modern sexism increased turnout among Democrats. In 2018, sexist predispositions triggered turnout in opposing ways across the aisle.
Closeness and Strategic Participation: Does the Relative Closeness of the U.S. Presidential Elections Shape Where College Students Register to Vote?
Jacob Montgomery & Min Hee Seo
Journal of Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Existing research shows that participation rates are higher in competitive electoral contexts. However, it is difficult to disentangle whether this contextual effect is a function of geographic heterogeneity or the strategic incentives for participation that individuals face in close elections. In this article, we partially circumvent this dilemma by focusing on out-of-state college students facing the choice of where to cast their vote. Using a novel survey and administrative records for over 1 million out-of-state students, we show that individuals attending college in a state where the election is more competitive than in their home state are more likely to register in their campus state consistent with theories of strategic behavior. We argue that by focusing on this population and this question we are better able to assess the relationship between strategic incentives and political behavior while holding constant state-specific context.