Bad influences
This Ad is for You: Targeting and the Effect of Alcohol Advertising on Youth Drinking
Eamon Molloy
Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Endogenous targeting of alcohol advertisements presents a challenge for empirically identifying a causal effect of advertising on drinking. Drinkers prefer a particular media; firms recognize this and target alcohol advertising at these media. This paper overcomes this challenge by utilizing novel data with detailed individual measures of media viewing and alcohol consumption and three separate empirical techniques, which represent significant improvements over previous methods. First, controls for the average audience characteristics of the media an individual views account for attributes of magazines and television programs alcohol firms may consider when deciding where to target advertising. A second specification directly controls for each television program and magazine a person views. The third method exploits variation in advertising exposure due to a 2003 change in an industry-wide rule that governs where firms may advertise. Although the unconditional correlation between advertising and drinking by youth (ages 18–24) is strong, models that include simple controls for targeting imply, at most, a modest advertising effect. Although the coefficients are estimated less precisely, estimates with models including more rigorous controls for targeting indicate no significant effect of advertising on youth drinking.
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The price elasticity of demand for heroin: Matched longitudinal and experimental evidence
Todd Olmstead et al.
Journal of Health Economics, May 2015, Pages 59–71
Abstract:
This paper reports estimates of the price elasticity of demand for heroin based on a newly constructed dataset. The dataset has two matched components concerning the same sample of regular heroin users: longitudinal information about real-world heroin demand (actual price and actual quantity at daily intervals for each heroin user in the sample) and experimental information about laboratory heroin demand (elicited by presenting the same heroin users with scenarios in a laboratory setting). Two empirical strategies are used to estimate the price elasticity of demand for heroin. The first strategy exploits the idiosyncratic variation in the price experienced by a heroin user over time that occurs in markets for illegal drugs. The second strategy exploits the experimentally-induced variation in price experienced by a heroin user across experimental scenarios. Both empirical strategies result in the estimate that the conditional price elasticity of demand for heroin is approximately 0.80.
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A Natural Experiment of Peer Influences on Youth Alcohol Use
Guang Guo et al.
Social Science Research, July 2015, Pages 193–207
Abstract:
This study estimates peer effects on alcohol use, drawing from a database of about 2,000 randomly-assigned roommates on a college campus. The estimation of peer influences also takes into consideration ego’s history of alcohol use and friendship with the peer. College students averaged an additional two-fifths of a binge drinking episode per month and an additional one-half of a drinking episode per month when randomly assigned a roommate who drank in high school than when assigned a roommate who did not drink in high school. An individual’s prior history of alcohol use proves important. Peer effects on binge drinking as well as drinking for those who already drank in high school were about twice as large as average peer effects. When one did not have a history of alcohol use, negative peer influences were absent. Also important is the friendship between peers. When a peer is considered a best friend, the step-up effect (or positive interaction effect) increased by 1.25-1.61 drinking episodes per month. However, even when a peer is not considered a best friend, a drinking peer still increased ego’s drinking episodes by 0.75-1.00 per month.
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Sophia Choukas-Bradley et al.
Child Development, forthcoming
Abstract:
Two-part latent growth models examined associations between two forms of peer status (popularity, likability) and adolescents' alcohol use trajectories throughout high school; ethnicity was examined as a moderator. Ninth-grade low-income adolescents (N = 364; Mage = 15.08; 52.5% Caucasian; 25.8% African American; 21.7% Latino) completed sociometric nominations of peer status and aggression at baseline, and reported their alcohol use every 6 months. After controlling for gender, aggression, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status, popularity — but not likability — prospectively predicted alcohol use trajectories. However, these effects were moderated by ethnicity, suggesting popularity as a risk factor for alcohol use probability and frequency among Caucasian and Latino, but not African American adolescents. Results suggest that developmental correlates of peer status should be considered within cultural context.
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Complexity, Efficiency, and Fairness in Multiproduct Liquor Pricing
Eugenio Miravete, Katja Seim & Jeff Thurk
University of Pennsylvania Working Paper, February 2014
Abstract:
The Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board administers the purchase and sale of wine and spirits and is mandated to charge a uniform 30% markup on all products. We use an estimated discrete choice model of demand for spirits, together with information on wholesale prices, to assess the implications of this policy. We find that failure to account for the correlation between demographics and consumption patterns leads to lower prices than those charged by a profit-maximizing, multi-product monopolist. Using product-specific markups leads to higher prices on average, less quantity consumed, an 11% increase in total profits, and greater welfare. The current one-size-fits-all pricing rule ignores variations in demand elasticities resulting in the implicit taxation of high-income and educated households by raising the prices of spirits they prefer (vodka and whiskey) while lowering the price of products favored by low-income and minority households (gin and rum).
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Gene Brody, Tianyi Yu & Steven Beach
Development and Psychopathology, February 2015, Pages 37-49
Abstract:
This study was designed to investigate a genetic moderation effect of dopamine receptor 4 gene (DRD4) alleles that have seven or more repeats (long alleles) on an intervention to deter drug use among rural African American adolescents in high-risk families. Adolescents (N = 291, M age = 17) were assigned randomly to the Adults in the Making (AIM) program or to a control condition and were followed for 27.5 months. Adolescents provided data on drug use and vulnerability cognitions three times after pretest. Pretest assessments of caregiver depressive symptoms, disruption in the home, and support toward the adolescent were used to construct a family risk index. Adolescents living in high-risk families who carried at least one DRD4 long allele and were assigned to the control condition evinced greater escalations in drug use than did (a) adolescents who lived in high-risk families, carried the DRD4 long allele, and were assigned to AIM, or (b) adolescents assigned to either condition who carried no DRD4 long alleles. AIM-induced reductions in vulnerability cognitions were responsible for the Family Risk × AIM × DRD4 status drug use prevention effects. These findings support differential susceptibility predictions and imply that prevention effects on genetically susceptible individuals may be underestimated.
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A population-based Swedish Twin and Sibling Study of cannabis, stimulant and sedative abuse in men
Kenneth Kendler et al.
Drug and Alcohol Dependence, forthcoming
Background: Prior studies, utilizing interview-based assessments, suggest that most of the genetic risk factors for drug abuse (DA) are non-specific with a minority acting specifically on risk for abuse of particular psychoactive substance classes. We seek to replicate these findings using objective national registry data.
Methods: We examined abuse of cannabis, stimulants (including cocaine) and sedatives ascertained from national Swedish registers in male–male monozygotic (1720 pairs) and dizygotic twins (1219 pairs) combined with near-age full siblings (76,457 pairs) to provide sufficient power. Modeling was performed using Mx.
Results: A common pathway model fitted better than an independent pathway model. The latent liability to DA was highly heritable but also influenced by shared environment. Cannabis, stimulant and sedative abuse all loaded strongly on the common factor. Estimates for the total heritability for the three forms of substance abuse ranged from 64 to 70%. Between 75 and 90% of that genetic risk was non-specific, coming from the common factor with the remainder deriving from substance specific genetic risk factors. By contrast, all of the shared environmental effects, which accounted for 18–20% of the variance in liability, were non-specific.
Conclusions: In accord with prior studies based on personal interviews, the large preponderance of genetic risk factors for abuse of specific classes of psychoactive substance are non-specific. These results suggest that genetic variation in the primary sites of action of the psychoactive drugs, which differ widely across most drug classes, play a minor role in human individual differences in risk for DA.
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Martijn van Hasselt et al.
Addictive Behaviors, June 2015, Pages 104–109
Background: On April 1, 2009, the federal government raised cigarette taxes from $0.39 to $1.01 per pack. This study examines the impact of this increase on a range of smoking behaviors among youth aged 12 to 17 and young adults aged 18 to 25.
Methods: Data from the 2002–2011 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) were used to estimate the impact of the tax increase on five smoking outcomes: (1) past year smoking initiation, (2) past month smoking, (3) past year smoking cessation, (4) number of days cigarettes were smoked during the past month, and (5) average number of cigarettes smoked per day. Each model included individual and state-level covariates and other tobacco control policies that coincided with the tax increase. We examined the impact overall and by race and gender.
Results: The odds of smoking initiation decreased for youth after the tax increase (Odds Ratio(OR) = 0.83, p < 0.0001). The odds of past-month smoking also decreased (youth: OR = 0.83, p < 0.0001; young adults: OR = 0.92, p < 0.0001), but the odds of smoking cessation remained unchanged. Current smokers smoked on fewer days (youth: coefficient = -0.97, p = 0.0001; young adults: coefficient = -0.84, p < 0.0001) and smoked fewer cigarettes per day after the tax increase (youth: coefficient = -1.02, p = 0.0011; young adults: coefficient = -0.92, p < 0.0001).
Conclusions: The 2009 federal cigarette tax increase was associated with a substantial reduction in smoking among youths and young adults. The impact of the tax increase varied across male, female, white and black subpopulations.
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Ceren Ertan Yörük
B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) laws on alcohol consumption and labor market outcomes of young adults. Using confidential data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort (NLSY97), I find that granting legal access to alcohol at age 21 leads to an increase in several measures of alcohol consumption. The discrete jump in the alcohol consumption at the MLDA has also negative spillover effects on the labor market outcomes of young adults. In particular, I document that the MLDA is associated with a 1 hour decrease in weekly working hours. However, the effect of the MLDA laws on wages is negative only under certain specifications. These results suggest that the policies designed to curb drinking may not only have desirable effects in reducing alcohol consumption among young adults but also have positive spillover effects on their labor market outcomes.
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Carlos Blanco et al.
Drug and Alcohol Dependence, forthcoming
Objective: Pathological gambling (PG) is now aligned with substance use disorders in the DSM-5 as the first officially recognized behavioral addiction. There is growing interest in examining obesity as an addictive disorder as well. The goal of this study was to investigate whether epidemiological data provide support for the consideration of PG and obesity as addictive disorders.
Method: Factor analysis of data from a large, nationally representative sample of US adults (N = 43,093), using nicotine dependence, alcohol dependence, drug dependence, PG and obesity as indicators. It was hypothesized that nicotine dependence, alcohol dependence and drug use dependence would load on a single factor. It was further hypothesized that if PG and obesity were addictive disorders, they would load on the same factor as substance use disorders, whereas failure to load on the addictive factor would not support their conceptualization as addictive disorders.
Results: A model with one factor including nicotine dependence, alcohol dependence, drug dependence and PG, but not obesity, provided a very good fit to the data, as indicated by CFI = 0.99, TLI = 0.99 and RMSEA=.01 and loadings of all indicators >0.4.
Conclusion: Data from this study support the inclusion of PG in a latent factor with substance use disorders but do not lend support to the consideration of obesity, as defined by BMI, as an addictive disorder. Future research should investigate whether certain subtypes of obesity are best conceptualized as addictive disorders and the shared biological and environmental factors that account for the common and specific features of addictive disorders.
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Rashelle Musci et al.
Development and Psychopathology, February 2015, Pages 111-122
Abstract:
The present study examines the interaction between a polygenic score and an elementary school-based universal preventive intervention trial. The polygenic score reflects the contribution of multiple genes and has been shown in prior research to be predictive of smoking cessation and tobacco use (Uhl et al., 2014). Using data from a longitudinal preventive intervention study, we examined age of first tobacco use from sixth grade to age 18. Genetic data were collected during emerging adulthood and were genotyped using the Affymetrix 6.0 microarray. The polygenic score was computed using these data. Discrete-time survival analysis was employed to test for intervention main and interaction effects with the polygenic score. We found a main effect of the intervention, with the intervention participants reporting their first cigarette smoked at an age significantly later than controls. We also found an Intervention × Polygenic Score interaction, with participants at the higher end of the polygenic score benefitting the most from the intervention in terms of delayed age of first use. These results are consistent with Belsky and colleagues' (e.g., Belsky, Bakermans-Kranenburg, & van IJzendoorn, 2007; Belsky & Pleuss, 2009, 2013; Ellis, Boyce, Belsky, Bakermans-Kranenburg, & van IJzendoorn, 2011) differential susceptibility hypothesis and the concept of “for better or worse,” wherein the expression of genetic variants are optimally realized in the context of an enriched environment, such as provided by a preventive intervention.
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Chris Delcher et al.
Drug and Alcohol Dependence, forthcoming
Background: In Florida, oxycodone-caused deaths declined substantially in 2012. Multiple important law enforcement, pharmaceutical, policy, and public health actions occurred concurrently, including implementation of a statewide prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP). The effects of the PDMP on oxycodone-caused mortality in Florida were evaluated.
Methods: A time-series, quasi-experimental research design with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) statistical models, including internal and external covariates. Data included 120 repeated monthly observations. Monthly counts of oxycodone-caused deaths, obtained from the Florida Medical Examiners Commission (MEC) was the outcome variable. Models included market-entry of tamper-resistant oxycodone HC1 controlled release tablets (OxyContin®), enforcement crackdowns (Operation Pill Nation), and regulation by FL House Bill 7095, measured by the monthly count of Florida pain management clinics closed. Two approaches were used to test the PDMP's hypothesized effect: (1) a binary indicator variable (0 = pre-implementation, 1 = post-implementation), and (2) a continuous indicator consisting of the number of PDMP queries by health care providers.
Results: Oxycodone-caused mortality abruptly declined 25% the month after implementation of Florida's PDMP (p = 0.008). The effect remained after integrating other related historical events into the model. Results indicate that for a system-wide increase of one PDMP query per health care provider, oxycodone-caused deaths declined by 0.229 persons per month (p = 0.002).
Conclusions: This is the first study to demonstrate that the PDMP had a significant effect in reducing oxycodone-caused mortality in Florida. Results have implications for national efforts to address the prescription drug epidemic.
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Alcohol reduces aversion to ambiguity
Tadeusz Tyszka, Anna Macko & Maciej Stańczak
Frontiers in Psychology, January 2015
Abstract:
Several years ago, Cohen et al. (1958) demonstrated that under the influence of alcohol drivers became more risk prone, although their risk perception remained unchanged. Research shows that ambiguity aversion is to some extent positively correlated with risk aversion, though not very highly (Camerer and Weber, 1992). The question addressed by the present research is whether alcohol reduces ambiguity aversion. Our research was conducted in a natural setting (a restaurant bar), where customers with differing levels of alcohol intoxication were offered a choice between a risky and an ambiguous lottery. We found that alcohol reduced ambiguity aversion and that the effect occurred in men but not women. We interpret these findings in terms of the risk-as-value hypothesis, according to which, people in Western culture tend to value risk, and suggest that alcohol consumption triggers adherence to socially and culturally valued patterns of conduct different for men and women.
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DAT1 and alcohol use: Differential responses to life stress during adolescence
John Stogner
Criminal Justice Studies, Winter 2015, Pages 18-38
Abstract:
Stressful life events can impact both substance use initiation and the quantity of substances consumed by adolescents; however, the effect of stress on substance use may be contingent on other factors including social support, peers, and genotype. DAT1, a polymorphic dopamine transporter gene, is one such factor that may be responsible for differential susceptibility to cumulative life pressures. Data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health were utilized to determine whether adolescents with the 10-repeat allele are more likely to respond to life stresses by engaging in alcohol use than those without the allele. Respondents’ self-reports of key stressors were used to create a composite life stress scale. The interaction of this measure with the number of 10-repeat DAT1 alleles was evaluated in series of logistic regression models. A significant interaction emerged between stressful life experiences and DAT1 for alcohol use among females, but this pattern was not seen in males. Females with the 10-repeat allele appear to be more sensitive to life stress as compared to those without the allele. It appears that variation in the DAT1 gene may help explain why some women are more likely to consume alcohol when confronted with stress. It, however, does not appear to condition the reaction of men, in terms of alcohol use, to stress.
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Eric Leas et al.
American Journal of Public Health, February 2015, Pages e90-e97
Objectives: We assessed whether an anti-tobacco television advertisement called “Stages,” which depicted a woman giving a brief emotional narrative of her experiences with tobacco use, would be recalled more often and have a greater effect on smoking cessation than 3 other advertisements with different intended themes.
Methods: Our data were derived from a sample of 2596 California adult smokers. We used multivariable log-binomial and modified Poisson regression models to calculate respondents’ probability of quitting as a result of advertisement recall.
Results: More respondents recalled the “Stages” ad (58.5%) than the 3 other ads (23.1%, 23.4%, and 25.6%; P < .001). Respondents who recalled “Stages” at baseline had a higher probability than those who did not recall the ad of making a quit attempt between baseline and follow-up (adjusted risk ratio [RR] = 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03, 1.34) and a higher probability of being in a period of smoking abstinence for at least a month at follow-up (adjusted RR = 1.55; 95% CI = 1.02, 2.37).
Conclusions: Anti-tobacco television advertisements that depict visceral and personal messages may be recalled by a larger percentage of smokers and may have a greater impact on smoking cessation than other types of advertisements.
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Substance Use and Teen Pregnancy in the United States: Evidence from the NSDUH 2002–2012
Christopher Salas-Wright et al.
Addictive Behaviors, June 2015, Pages 218–225
Introduction: Few, if any, studies have systematically examined the relationship between substance use and teen pregnancy using population-based samples. We aim to provide a comprehensive examination of substance use among pregnant adolescents in the United States.
Method: Employing data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health between 2002 and 2012 (n = 97,850), we examine the prevalence of past 12-month and past 30-day substance use and substance use disorders among pregnant and non-pregnant adolescents (ages 12–17). We also examine psychosocial and pregnancy-related correlates of current substance use among the subsample of pregnant adolescents (n = 810).
Results: Pregnant teens were significantly more likely to have experimented with a variety of substances and meet criteria for alcohol (AOR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.26-2.17), cannabis (AOR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.72-3.04), and other illicit drug use disorders (AOR = 2.84, 95% CI = 1.92-4.19). Pregnant early adolescents (ages 12–14; AOR = 4.34, 95% CI = 2.28-8.26) were significantly more likely and pregnant late adolescents (ages 15–17; AOR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.56-0.90) significantly less likely than their non-pregnant counterparts to be current substance users.
Conclusions: Study findings point not only to a relationship between pregnancy and prior substance use, but also suggest that substance use continues for many teens during pregnancy. We found that substance use is particularly problematic among early adolescents that the prevalence of substance use attenuates dramatically as youth progress from the first to the second and third trimesters of pregnancy.
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Smoking normalizes cerebral blood flow and oxygen consumption after 12-hour abstention
Manouchehr Vafaee et al.
Journal of Cerebral Blood Flow & Metabolism, forthcoming
Abstract:
Acute nicotine administration stimulates [14C]deoxyglucose trapping in thalamus and other regions of rat brain, but acute effects of nicotine and smoking on energy metabolism have rarely been investigated in human brain by positron emission tomography (PET). We obtained quantitative PET measurements of cerebral blood flow (CBF) and metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO2) in 12 smokers who had refrained from smoking overnight, and in a historical group of nonsmokers, testing the prediction that overnight abstinence results in widespread, coupled reductions of CBF and CMRO2. At the end of the abstention period, global grey-matter CBF and CMRO2 were both reduced by 17% relative to nonsmokers. At 15 minutes after renewed smoking, global CBF had increased insignificantly, while global CMRO2 had increased by 11%. Regional analysis showed that CMRO2 had increased in the left putamen and thalamus, and in right posterior cortical regions at this time. At 60 and 105 minutes after smoking resumption, CBF had increased by 8% and CMRO2 had increased by 11-12%. Thus, we find substantial and global impairment of CBF/CMRO2 in abstaining smokers, and acute restoration by resumption of smoking. The reduced CBF and CMRO2 during acute abstention may mediate the cognitive changes described in chronic smokers.
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Psychological Distress and Problem Drinking
Emmanouil Mentzakis et al.
Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We examine the influence of harmful alcohol use on mental health using a flexible two-step instrumental variables approach and household survey data from nine countries of the former Soviet Union. Using alcohol advertisements to instrument for alcohol, we show that problem drinking has a large detrimental effect on psychological distress, with problem drinkers exhibiting a 42% increase in the number of mental health problems reported and a 15% higher chance of reporting very poor mental health. Ignoring endogeneity leads to an underestimation of the damaging effect of excessive drinking. Findings suggest that more effective alcohol polices and treatment services in the former Soviet Union may have added benefits in terms of reducing poor mental health.
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On the demand for smoking quitlines
Rajeev Goel
Journal of Economics and Finance, January 2015, Pages 201-210
Abstract:
Using recent cross-state U.S. data, this paper estimates the demand for calls to smoking quitlines. Besides formal insights into the determinants of quitline demand, another key contribution is to provide unique insights on the role of related internet resources, using two novel measures. Results show that higher cigarette prices, lower income, and greater government resources increase the demand for quitline calls, with the internet measures having positive but statistically insignificant effects. In terms of magnitude, the elasticity of quitline calls with respect to cigarette prices was about four times greater than that with respect to public funds for quitlines. Policy implications are discussed.
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Effects of Ostracism and Sex on Alcohol Consumption in a Clinical Laboratory Setting
Amy Bacon, Alexi Cranford & Heidemarie Blumenthal
Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, forthcoming
Abstract:
Drinking to cope with negative affect is a drinking pattern that leads to problematic alcohol use both in college and after graduation. Despite theory and correlational evidence to this effect, establishing a link between stress and alcohol consumption among college students in the laboratory has yielded both a limited number of studies and, at times, inconsistent results. The present study attempts to resolve these issues through investigating the effects of an ecologically relevant stressor — ostracism — on alcohol consumption in a clinical laboratory setting. Social drinking college students (N = 40; 55% female) completed a 5-min game of Cyberball and were randomly assigned either to be included or excluded in the virtual ball-toss game. The amount (in ml) of beer consumed in a subsequent mock taste test served as our primary dependent variable, with breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) as a secondary dependent variable. Results indicated that excluded participants reported a trend toward an increase in negative affect from pre- to post-Cyberball, and endorsed significantly lower self-esteem, belonging, control, and belief in a meaningful existence compared to included participants. A significant Sex × Condition effect indicated that excluded women consumed less beer than both included women and excluded men, supported by a nonsignificant trend in BrAC. Men did not differ in their consumption of beer as a result of Cyberball condition. Implications of sex and social context on alcohol use are discussed, as well as ostracism as a method for investigating relationships between social stress and alcohol use.