Bad
The Long-Term Economic Impact of Criminalization in American Childhoods
James Smith
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article documents arrest and conviction histories before age 26 years of Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) respondents using a retrospective module that I designed. I find strong positive cohort effects in rising probabilities of arrest for all demographic subgroups. This increased contact with the criminal justice system across birth cohorts was at a more rapid rate over time among Whites and women. These rising rates of arrests and convictions are associated with lower probabilities of being married, lower weeks worked, lower hourly wages, and lower family incomes during the adult years. The size of the estimated associations is quite large.
Relationship Between Prison Length of Stay and Recidivism: A Study Using Regression Discontinuity and Instrumental Variables With Multiple Break Points
William Rhodes et al.
Criminology & Public Policy, August 2018, Pages 731-769
Abstract:
In this study, we use both a regression discontinuity design and an instrumental variable identification strategy to examine the relationship between prison length of stay and recidivism among a large sample of federal offenders. We capitalize on the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines structure to apply these strong inference, quasi‐experimental approaches. We find that average length of stay can be reduced by 7.5 months with a small impact on recidivism. We also examine whether there is treatment heterogeneity. We find that length‐of‐stay effects do not vary by criminal history, offense seriousness, sex, race, and education level.
Smart sentencing guidelines: The effect of marginal policy changes on recidivism
Sarah Estelle & David Phillips
Journal of Public Economics, August 2018, Pages 270-293
Abstract:
Public appeals regarding criminal justice have shifted somewhat from “tough on crime” to “smart justice” that is more lenient when tradeoffs merit it. Among other considerations, smart sentencing policy depends on how sentence severity affects recidivism. Using administrative data on two common non-violent felonies committed by adults in Michigan, we measure the effect of sentences on offenders' future criminal activity. Discontinuities in the legislative guidelines that constrain sentences chosen by Michigan judges provide exogenous variation in sentence severity. Harsher sentences generated by sentencing guidelines significantly reduce recidivism by felony shoplifters but not repeat drunk drivers. Recidivism falls most for young, male offenders from Southeast Michigan and varies non-monotonically with prior criminal record. Because of such heterogeneity, any empirical strategy measures a local average treatment effect relevant to a particular population of offenders. Contrary to our main results, we find no evidence that harsher sentences induced by judge assignments reduce recidivism in our sample. When sentencing guidelines provide the primary practical policy lever, “smart justice” should incorporate directly relevant empirical evidence that accounts for offense- and offender-specific tradeoffs between public safety and the public budget.
Can We Downsize Our Prisons and Jails Without Compromising Public Safety? Findings from California's Prop 47
Bradley Bartos & Charis Kubrin
Criminology & Public Policy, August 2018, Pages 693-715
Abstract:
Our study represents the first effort to evaluate systematically Proposition 47's (Prop 47's) impact on California's crime rates. With a state‐level panel containing violent and property offenses from 1970 through 2015, we employ a synthetic control group design to approximate California's crime rates had Prop 47 not been enacted. Our findings suggest that Prop 47 had no effect on homicide, rape, aggravated assault, robbery, or burglary. Larceny and motor vehicle thefts, however, seem to have increased moderately after Prop 47, but these results were both sensitive to alternative specifications of our synthetic control group and small enough that placebo testing cannot rule out spuriousness.
Exploitative Revenues, Law Enforcement, and the Quality of Government Service
Rebecca Goldstein, Michael Sances & Hye Young You
Urban Affairs Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
A growing body of evidence indicates that local police departments are being used to provide revenue for municipalities by imposing and collecting fees, fines, and asset forfeitures. We examine whether revenue collection activities compromise the criminal investigation functions of local police departments. We find that police departments in cities that collect a greater share of their revenue from fees solve violent and property crimes at significantly lower rates. The effect on violent crime clearance is more salient in smaller cities where police officers’ assignments tend not to be highly specialized. We find that this relationship is robust to a variety of empirical strategies, including instrumenting for fines revenue using commuting time. Our results suggest that institutional changes - such as decreasing municipal government reliance on fines and fees for revenue - are important for changing police behavior and improving the provision of public safety.
Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks
Manudeep Bhuller et al.
NBER Working Paper, August 2018
Abstract:
Using quasi-random assignment of criminal cases to judges, we estimate large incarceration spillovers in criminal and brother networks. When a defendant is sent to prison, there are 51 and 32 percentage point reductions in the probability his criminal network members and younger brothers will be charged with a crime, respectively, over the ensuing four years. Correlational evidence misleadingly finds small positive effects. These spillovers are of first order importance for policy, as the network reductions in future crimes committed are larger than the direct effect on the incarcerated defendant.
Militarization fails to enhance police safety or reduce crime but may harm police reputation
Jonathan Mummolo
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
The increasingly visible presence of heavily armed police units in American communities has stoked widespread concern over the militarization of local law enforcement. Advocates claim militarized policing protects officers and deters violent crime, while critics allege these tactics are targeted at racial minorities and erode trust in law enforcement. Using a rare geocoded census of SWAT team deployments from Maryland, I show that militarized police units are more often deployed in communities with large shares of African American residents, even after controlling for local crime rates. Further, using nationwide panel data on local police militarization, I demonstrate that militarized policing fails to enhance officer safety or reduce local crime. Finally, using survey experiments - one of which includes a large oversample of African American respondents - I show that seeing militarized police in news reports may diminish police reputation in the mass public. In the case of militarized policing, the results suggest that the often-cited trade-off between public safety and civil liberties is a false choice.
Does Reducing Case Processing Time Reduce Recidivism? A Study of the Early Case Resolution Court
Rob Butters et al.
Criminal Justice Policy Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Case processing times throughout the United States exceed national standards created by multiple agencies. To combat this, multiple expedited case processing courts have been developed across the nation; however, research regarding these courts has failed to consider recidivism outcomes among participants. We examined the outcomes of a specialized court in the Salt Lake City Third District Court called the Early Case Resolution (ECR) Court, a program aimed at reducing both case processing times and recidivism. Using a propensity score-matched sample, we utilized survival analysis to look at participants’ time to recidivism. While case processing times were lower for the ECR Court participants than non-ECR participants, recidivism among ECR Court participants was significantly higher. Results from this study show that using recidivism as an outcome measure for expedited case processing courts is necessary in evaluations of these programs.
The effects of gun control on crimes: A spatial interactive fixed effects approach
Wei Shi & Lung-fei Lee
Empirical Economics, August 2018, Pages 233-263
Abstract:
This paper examines the effect of right-to-carry laws on crimes. We relax the assumption that unobserved time effects have homogeneous impacts on states; therefore, states with right-to-carry laws may follow different time trends which might be stronger or weaker than those of other states including states with no right-to-carry laws. The heterogeneous time trends are modeled by a factor structure where time factors represent time-varying unobservables, and factor loadings account for their heterogeneous impacts across states. No assumption is imposed on the shape of the time trend. Crime statistics exhibit spatial dependence, and a state’s adoption of right-to-carry law may have external effects on its neighboring states. Using a dynamic spatial panel model with interactive effects, we find positive spatial spillovers in crime rates. Depending on a crime category, an average 1% reduction in crime rates in neighboring states can decrease crime rates by 0.069-0.287%, with property crimes exhibiting higher degrees of spatial dependence than violent crimes. We find that although the passage of right-to-carry laws has no significant effects on the overall violent or property crime rates, they lead to short-term increases in robbery and medium-term decreases in murder rates. The results are robust to the number of factors, a different sample ending point, and some alternative spatial weights matrices and model specifications.
The Political Consequences of Policing: Evidence from New York City
Ayobami Laniyonu
Political Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper explores the effect that municipal policing can exert on politics, and specifically investigates the effect that Stop, Question, and Frisk (SQF) policing has had on voter turnout and candidate choice in New York City. While extant studies of the American criminal justice system have found that mass incarceration and felon disenfranchisement negatively impact political participation and engagement, few have explicitly explored policing’s relationship with politics and fewer still consider its mobilizing potential. Mobilizing data from over 2.7 million geo-coded police stops and data from a series of national and municipal elections this paper uncovers a pattern of voter demobilization, voter mobilization, and candidate choice that cannot be anticipated from extant studies in the literature. Specifically, it finds that while concentrated policing was associated with reductions in voter turnout in the 2006 and 2010 midterm elections, it was associated with higher rates of turnout in the 2008 presidential election and 2013 Democratic primary and general mayor. Further analysis demonstrates that stopping intensity was strongly associated with candidate choice in the 2013 Democratic mayoral primary, such that higher rates of policing were positively associated with support for the candidate (John Liu) who advocated for eliminating SQF and less support for the candidate (William Thompson) who supported SQF. Together, these findings highlight the impact that policing can exert on political behavior, characterize the impact that harmful policing policies can play in instigating policing participation and engagement, and foreground the importance of considering local criminal justice policy and political action.
It really does take a village: The role of neighbors in the etiology of nonaggressive rule-breaking behavior
Alexandra Burt et al.
Development and Psychopathology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although there is growing recognition that disadvantaged contexts attenuate genetic influences on youth misbehavior, it is not yet clear how this dampening occurs. The current study made use of a “geographic contagion” model to isolate specific contexts contributing to this effect, with a focus on nonaggressive rule-breaking behaviors (RB) in the families’ neighbors. Our sample included 847 families residing in or near modestly-to-severely disadvantaged neighborhoods who participated in the Michigan State University Twin Registry. Neighborhood sampling techniques were used to recruit neighbors residing within 5km of a given family (the mean number of neighbors assessed per family was 13.09; range, 1-47). Analyses revealed clear evidence of genotype-environment interactions by neighbor RB, such that sibling-level shared environmental influences on child RB increased with increasing neighbor self-reports of their own RB, whereas genetic influences decreased. Moreover, this moderation appeared to be driven by geographic proximity to neighbors. Sensitivity analyses further indicated that this effect was specifically accounted for by higher levels of neighbor joblessness, rather than elements of neighbor RB that would contribute to neighborhood blight or crime. Such findings provocatively suggest that future genotype-environment interactions studies should integrate the dynamic networks of social contagion theory.
Good Cop, Bad Cop: Using Civilian Allegations to Predict Police Misconduct
Kyle Rozema & Max Schanzenbach
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
In response to high-profile cases of police misconduct, reformers are calling for greater use of civilian allegations in identifying potential problem officers. This paper applies an Empirical Bayes framework to data on civilian allegations and civil rights litigation in Chicago to assess the predictive value of civilian allegations for serious future misconduct. We find a strong relationship between allegations and future civil rights litigation, especially for the very worst officers. The worst one percent of officers, as measured by civilian allegations, generate almost five times the number of payouts and over four times the total damage payouts in civil rights litigation. These findings suggest that intervention efforts could be fruitfully concentrated among a relatively small group.
Resource Booms and Crime: Evidence from Oil and Gas Production in Colorado
Patrick Gourley & Greg Madonia
Resource and Energy Economics, November 2018, Pages 37-52
Abstract:
The 21st century oil and gas boom is drastically changing life in the American West. While previous literature has examined how resource booms affect household income and infant health, the effects of resource booms on crime remain largely unstudied. We develop a simple model that demonstrates an oil and gas boom could increase or decrease crime as employment opportunities, inequality, and other aspects of the local economy change. Combining well data provided by drillinginfo.com and FBI incident-level crime data, we examine intra-county changes in both property and violent crime in Colorado as wells open and shut down. We find a positive relationship between the well density of a county and both violent and property crimes. This suggests that while counties in resource intense areas may receive a financial windfall from a rapidly expanding industry base, increased public safety spending may be needed to counteract increases in crime.
Examining the Association Between Massage Parlors and Neighborhood Crime
Jessica Huff et al.
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although massage parlors have been associated with illicit activities including prostitution, less is known about their association with neighborhood crime. Employing the Computer Automated Dispatch/Record Management System (CAD/RMS), online user review, licensing, Census, and zoning data, we examine the impact of massage parlors on crime in their surrounding neighborhoods. Using spatial autoregressive models, our results indicate the total number of massage parlors was associated with increased social disorder. The presence of illicit massage parlors in adjacent neighborhoods was associated with crime and physical disorder in the focal neighborhoods. This study has consequences for how police address crime associated with massage parlors. Specifically, the use of online user review forums could be an effective way to identify illicit massage parlors. Recommendations for policing and code enforcement are discussed.
Sworn Volunteers in American Policing, 1999 to 2013
Ron Malega & Joel Garner
Police Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study describes changes in the use of sworn volunteers among the nation’s local law enforcement agencies and identifies those state-level certification, community, and agency characteristics associated with agencies using such volunteers in 2013. Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics data from 1999 through 2013 were analyzed to document trends in both the number of sworn volunteers and the prevalence of agencies using sworn volunteers. While there has been a modest decline in the use of sworn volunteers since 1999, in 2013, about 36% of all local law enforcement agencies used sworn volunteers; furthermore, these volunteers comprised 7% of all local sworn personnel having arrest authority nationwide in 2013. A survey of peace officer standards and training agencies found that approximately two thirds of states required state-level certification of sworn volunteers. Multivariate analyses of state-level certification standards, census data, and agency characteristics found that agencies were more likely to use sworn volunteers if they (a) are a sheriff's office, (b) serve jurisdictions with larger populations, (c) have greater levels of social disadvantage, (d) do not require recruits to have more than a high school education, or (e) are located within states offering graduated levels of sworn volunteer certifications. Agencies were less likely to use volunteer officers if they (a) hire part-time sworn officers, (b) have a greater entry-level salary, or (c) are accredited.
Revisiting the Crime Control Benefits of Voluntary Organizations: Organizational Presence, Organizational Capacity, and Crime Rates in Los Angeles Neighborhoods
James Wo
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study examines the independent effects that the number of voluntary organizations and the total amount of income they possess have on neighborhood crime, over time. Drawing upon a sample of Los Angeles census blocks from 2000 to 2010, I utilize fixed-effects negative binomial regression to estimate crime models. The number of voluntary organizations and the total amount of income they possess in the focal block, respectively, are not related to most crime types the following year. Yet, both aspects of voluntary organizations exhibit crime-reducing influences when accounting for their broader spatial impact, and controlling for numerous factors that have been shown to be associated with crime rates. The implications for communities and crime research are discussed.
Violence while in Utero: The Impact of Assaults During Pregnancy on Birth Outcomes
Janet Currie, Michael Mueller-Smith & Maya Rossin-Slater
NBER Working Paper, July 2018
Abstract:
Causal evidence of the effects of violent crime on its victims is sparse. Yet such evidence is needed to determine the social cost of crime and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of policy interventions in the justice system. This study presents new evidence on the effects of violent crime on pregnancy and infant health outcomes, using unique linked administrative data from New York City. We merge birth records with maternal residential addresses to the locations of reported crimes, and focus on mothers who lived in a home where an assault was reported during their pregnancies. We compare these mothers to women who lived in a home with an assault that took place shortly after the birth. We find that assaults in the 3rd trimester significantly increase rates of very low birth weight (less than 1,500 grams) and very pre-term (less than 34 weeks gestation) births, possibly through a higher likelihood of induced labor. We show that our results are robust to multiple choices of control groups and to using maternal fixed effects models. We calculate that these impacts translate into a social cost per assault during pregnancy of $41,771, and a total annual cost of over $4.25 billion when scaled by the national victimization rate. As infant health is a strong predictor of life-long well-being, and women of lower socioeconomic status are more likely to be victims of domestic abuse than their more advantaged counterparts, our results suggest that in utero subjection to violent crime is an important new channel for intergenerational transmission of inequality.