Findings

Academic Questions

Kevin Lewis

September 08, 2025

The Politics of Pandemic School Operations for Reopening and Beyond: Evidence from Virginia
Beth Schueler, Luke Miller & Amy Reynolds
American Educational Research Journal, forthcoming

Abstract:
Post-COVID-19, is education losing its special status as a policy domain more insulated from partisan politics than other policy areas? Indeed, a community's political makeup influenced its schools’ pandemic learning modality, but did it predict other aspects of educational operations? We studied the role of Republican vote share, race, markets, and public health in predicting a range of operations -- from modality to family engagement, to social-emotional support, to teacher professional development -- in Virginia. Partisanship and racial composition were similarly predictive of initial in-person offerings, but partisanship was less predictive over time, and school operational decisions were less politicized than modality. Our findings provide optimism for leaders seeking to avoid highly polarized dynamics, especially on issues that have not become nationalized.


Partisan Schools: The Political Alignment of Charter School Leadership
Jason Giersch & Christopher Dong
American Politics Research, forthcoming

Abstract:
One of the promises of the school choice movement has been the development of schools that serve unique interests of different families with specific educational philosophies. In this study we examine how one form of school choice -- charter schools -- provides different political philosophies as well. By testing for correlations between the partisan composition of charter school boards and word concepts appearing in charter schools’ mission and vision statements, we show empirically that schools run by Democrats and schools run by Republicans value different things. While charter schools may offer experiences tailored to educational preferences, we argue that they offer experiences tailored to political preferences as well.


Understanding Gaps in College Outcomes by First-Generation Status
Esteban Aucejo et al.
NBER Working Paper, August 2025

Abstract:
Information frictions significantly shape students' academic trajectories, but their differential impact across student backgrounds remains understudied. Using a novel panel survey capturing incoming students' subjective expectations and anonymized transcript data from Arizona State University, we first show that parental education strongly predicts educational success, even after controlling for demographics and measurable college preparation. First-generation students enter college less informed and with more uncertain beliefs, facing substantial challenges stemming from limited understanding and uncertainty about the higher education setting. A Bayesian expected utility maximization model demonstrates that higher uncertainty alone can sustain persistent achievement gaps. Empirically, students update their beliefs and make academic decisions consistent with the model’s predictions. Finally, leveraging a natural experiment involving a targeted first-year experience program for academically marginal students, we demonstrate that cost-effective interventions can successfully reduce knowledge frictions, improve retention, and encourage beneficial early major switching.


Why are preschool programs becoming less effective?
Anamarie Whitaker et al.
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, forthcoming

Abstract:
Public preschool programs are heralded as an effective policy tool for promoting the development and lifelong well-being of children from low-income families. Recent preschool evaluations report divergent findings that are consistently weaker than those of famous demonstration programs implemented in the mid-20th century. We provide potential explanations for these weaker effects, the most compelling of which focuses on improvements in the early childhood conditions of children not enrolling in public programs. We argue that other explanations, such as subsequent low-quality schooling experiences, do not convincingly account for weakening program effectiveness. We do not contest whether governments should invest in effective care for young children. Rather, we focus on the current state of the evaluation evidence for programs at scale. We argue the field must take seriously the disappointing impacts of modern programs on child outcomes and strive to understand how to boost program effectiveness through rigorous, longitudinal research.


Information Frictions and the Labor Market for Public School Teachers
Mark Colas & Chao Fu
NBER Working Paper, August 2025

Abstract:
Information frictions -- where a worker and her current employer know more about the worker’s productivity than prospective employers -- have complex equity-efficiency implications in the teacher labor market. Reducing information frictions may make it easier for effective teachers to move to their preferred schools and increase cross-school inequality, but it may also attract high-quality entrants and improve market-level teacher quality. Taking these factors into account, we develop an equilibrium model of the teacher labor market and estimate it using data from the Houston Independent School District, which launched a transparent teacher evaluation system in 2011. Counterfactual simulations reveal that (1) making district teachers’ quality observable to all district schools improves average teacher quality at the district level and in the top and bottom quartiles of schools ranked by student performance, while decreasing it in other schools; (2) budget-neutral bonus programs that incentivize high-quality teachers to teach in low-performing schools can increase overall teacher quality and reduce cross-school inequalities; and (3) these programs are more effective in markets with cross-employer information symmetry.


Education and Mental Health in Young Adulthood: New Evidence From Genetic Markers
Alex Xingbang Weng
Health Economics, October 2025, Pages 1869-1881

Abstract:
This paper presents new evidence on the impact of education on depression in young adults. Utilizing data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, I employ family fixed-effect regressions and an instrumental variable approach using genetic scores. I find having a college degree is associated with a reduction in depression symptoms by 0.4–0.5 standard deviations and a decrease in the probability of experiencing major depression by 8%–12%. These findings are robust when exclusion restriction assumptions of the instrument are relaxed. A college degree appears to have a stronger protective effect on mental health for LGB individuals compared to heterosexuals. I find that education could affect mental health outcomes from better labor market outcomes and improved health behaviors. These results suggest that bolstering educational attainment could be an effective way to battle the high rate of depression.


Navigating the College Affordability Crisis: Insights from College Savings Accounts
Guglielmo Briscese, John List & Sabrina Liu
NBER Working Paper, August 2025

Abstract:
With higher education costs consistently outpacing inflation and public funding declining, college affordability has become a critical barrier to economic mobility for middle- and low-income families. While College Savings Accounts (CSAs), or 529 plans, offer tax-advantaged vehicles for college savings, their adoption patterns and educational impacts remain poorly understood. Using comprehensive administrative data from over 900,000 Illinois 529 accounts (2000-2023) linked to educational outcomes, plus complementary surveys of account owners and parents, we provide the first large-scale analysis of CSA participation and effectiveness. We find that while CSA adoption has expanded to every ZIP code in Illinois, participation remains concentrated among higher-income, more educated families. Financial literacy emerges as a key barrier: 61% of parents who could save enough to cover half of future college costs still perceive their potential savings as meaningless. Among participants, higher savings are strongly correlated with better educational outcomes, including four-year college enrollment, attendance at selective institutions, and the pursuit of post-graduate degrees. These findings suggest that targeted interventions addressing financial literacy gaps and misperceptions about modest savings could significantly expand CSA effectiveness as a tool for educational equity. Beyond state-level 529 program optimization, our findings suggest several promising avenues for federal policy coordination and institutional innovation.


Maximizing math achievement: Strategies from the science of learning
Nicole Scalise, Jessica Gladstone & Dana Miller-Cotto
Journal of Experimental Child Psychology, September 2025

Abstract:
To best support students’ mathematical learning, it is critical to identify instructional strategies that predict achievement over time and consider how these strategies interact with individual child factors. Prior research suggests that strategies informed by the principles of the science of learning benefit children’s mathematical development in early childhood. The present study extends previous findings to middle childhood, examining the relations between children’s exposure to mathematics instruction informed by the science of learning principles, children’s mathematics interest, and their mathematics achievement at the end of fourth grade. Participants were 4520 children from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study − Kindergarten 2010–2011 (M = 10.1 years; 50 % female). Children who received more frequent mathematics instruction aligned with principles of the science of learning had higher mathematics achievement at the end of fourth grade, controlling for prior mathematics achievement, overall frequency of mathematics instruction, child age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Although we hypothesized that children’s individual mathematics interest would moderate the association between the frequency of high-quality mathematics instruction and mathematics achievement, our results did not find evidence that children’s initial mathematics interest affected the association between their exposure to science of learning aligned strategies and their end-of-year mathematics achievement.


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