Up to no good
Stephanie Ann Wiley, Lee Ann Slocum & Finn-Aage Esbensen
Criminology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Much debate has taken place regarding the merits of aggressive policing strategies such as "stop, question, and frisk." Labeling theory suggests that police contact may actually increase delinquency because youth who are stopped or arrested are excluded from conventional opportunities, adopt a deviant identity, and spend time with delinquent peers. But, few studies have examined the mechanisms through which police contact potentially enhances offending. The current study uses four waves of longitudinal data collected from middle-school students (N = 2,127) in seven cities to examine the deviance amplification process. Outcomes are compared for youth with no police contact, those who were stopped by police, and those who were arrested. We use propensity score matching to control for preexisting differences among the three groups. Our findings indicate that compared with those with no contact, youth who are stopped or arrested report higher levels of future delinquency and that social bonds, deviant identity formation, and delinquent peers partially mediate the relationship between police contact and later offending. These findings suggest that programs targeted at reducing the negative consequences of police contact (i.e., poor academic achievement, deviant identity formation, and delinquent peer associations) might reduce the occurrence of secondary deviance.
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The Effects of Private Prison Confinement on Offender Recidivism: Evidence From Minnesota
Grant Duwe & Valerie Clark
Criminal Justice Review, September 2013, Pages 375-394
Abstract:
Evidence has been mixed as to whether private prisons are more effective than state-operated facilities in reducing recidivism. This study analyzes whether private prison confinement in Minnesota has had an impact on recidivism by examining 3,532 offenders released from prison between 2007 and 2009. Propensity score matching was used to individually match a comparison group of 1,766 inmates who had only been confined in state-run facilities with 1,766 offenders who had served time in a private prison facility. Using multiple measures of recidivism and private prison confinement, 20 Cox regression models were estimated. The results showed that offenders who had been incarcerated in a private prison had a greater hazard of recidivism in all 20 models, and the recidivism risk was significantly greater in 8 of the models. The evidence presented in this study suggests that private prisons are not more effective in reducing recidivism, which may be attributable to fewer visitation and rehabilitative programming opportunities for offenders incarcerated at private facilities.
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Does Morality Condition the Deterrent Effect of Perceived Certainty Among Incarcerated Felons?
Alex Piquero et al.
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
Deterrence researchers have long considered the extent to which perceived certainty and severity inhibit offending. More recently, scholars have encouraged more specific investigations about the conditions under which sanction threats may deter offending. This study contributes to and extends this line of research by exploring whether morality conditions this relationship among a large sample of incarcerated felons. Results show that while certainty and morality are independently associated with a lower likelihood of offending, perceived certainty relates to offending only among those persons with high - but not low - moral beliefs.
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Gender Differences in Recidivism Rates for Juvenile Justice Youth: The Impact of Sexual Abuse
Selby Conrad et al.
Law and Human Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Young female offenders represent a growing number of young offenders. Studies have shown that youth in the juvenile justice system, particularly young females, report higher rates of lifetime sexual abuse than their nonoffending peers. The aim of this study was to examine gender differences in risk factors for recidivism, including a history of sexual abuse, among a juvenile court clinic sample. Findings suggest that, even after accounting for previously identified risk factors for recidivism such as prior legal involvement and conduct problems, a history of sexual abuse is the most salient predictor of recidivism for young female offenders, but not for males. The development of gender-responsive interventions to reduce juvenile recidivism and continued legal involvement into adulthood may be warranted.
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Amalia Miller & Carmit Segal
University of Virginia Working Paper, October 2013
Abstract:
We study the impact of the integration of women in US policing between the late 1970s and early 1990s on violent crime reporting and domestic violence escalation. Along these two key dimensions, we find that female officers improved police quality. Using crime victimization data, we find that as female representation increases among officers in an area, violent crimes against women in that area, and especially domestic violence, are reported to the police at significantly higher rates. There are no such effects for violent crimes against men or from increases in the female share among civilian police employees. Furthermore, we find evidence that female officers help prevent the escalation of domestic violence. Increases in female officer representation are followed by significant declines in intimate partner homicide rates and in rates of repeated domestic abuse. These effects are all consistent between fixed effects models with controls for economic and policy variables and instrumental variables models that focus exclusively on increases in female police employment driven by externally imposed affirmative action plans.
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How Much Do the Crimes Committed by Released Inmates Cost?
Michael Ostermann & Joel Caplan
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
The goal of this study is to explore the monetary costs of crimes committed by former inmates as they attempt to transition back into their communities. We use data gathered from New Jersey prison releases from 2005 to 2007 (n = 31,831) for our explorations. In addition to describing local-, county-, and state-level costs of crimes, we construct a series of regression models to predict costs using several predictors of recidivism. Results indicate that age, minority status, area-level deprivation, and whether the inmate was released to parole supervision were statistically significant predictors of costs in expected directions. However, strongly established predictors of recidivism such as criminal history and policy-relevant predictors such as time served are not significant predictors of postrelease costs of crimes. Our discussion presents a simple cost-benefit analysis according to two distinct policy approaches: (a) targeting evidence-based correctional principles toward high-risk former inmates and (b) incapacitating high-risk former inmates.
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Casinos, Casino Size, and Crime: A Panel Data Analysis of Michigan Counties
Gregory Falls
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, forthcoming
Abstract:
Growth in legal gaming in the United States over the past quarter century or so is well-documented. One important factor fueling this growth was the passage of the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act of 1988, which permitted Native American tribes to establish, under agreements or "compacts" with the states in which they are located, casinos offering what is known as Class III gaming: slot machines, blackjack, roulette, and other games. Since the passage of the Act, there have been 21 Native American casinos established in Michigan. Also, three non-Native American casinos opened in Detroit in 1999 and 2000. This growth in the number of casinos has sparked a wide-ranging debate over the social and economic impacts of casino development. The purpose of this research is to focus on the crime issue in the broader casino debate. We investigate the impact of these Michigan casinos on the rates of burglary, robbery, larceny and motor vehicle theft (property crimes) in casino host counties as well as in nearby counties. We employ a panel data set with annual observations on all 83 Michigan counties for the period 1994-2010. The dataset includes crime rates taken from the FBI crime data series, variables for the presence of a casino in a county or in a nearby county, the scale of a casino's operations as measured by revenues, and a variety of control variables suggested by the broader literature investigating the factors that determine crime rates generally. Our results suggest that in most cases the property crime rates studied are not affected by the presence or size of a casino in a county or in a nearby county. The largest such impact, which is negative, is for motor vehicle theft. The size of a casino does have a small positive effect on the motor vehicle theft rate.
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The Returns to Criminal Capital
Thomas Loughran et al.
American Sociological Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Human capital theory posits that individuals increase their labor market returns through investments in education and training. This concept has been studied extensively across several disciplines. An analog concept of criminal capital, the focus of some speculation and limited empirical study, remains considerably less developed theoretically and methodologically. This article offers a formal theoretical model of criminal capital indicators and tests for greater illegal wage returns using a sample of serious adolescent offenders, many of whom participate in illegal income-generating activities. Our results reveal that, consistent with human capital theory, important illegal wage premiums are associated with investments in criminal capital, notably an increasing but declining marginal return to experience and a premium for specialization. Furthermore, as in studies of legal labor markets, we find strong evidence that, if left unaccounted for, nonrandom sample selection causes severe bias in models of illegal wages. We discuss theoretical and practical implications of these results, along with directions for future research.
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Policing Convenience Store Crime: Lessons from the Glendale, Arizona Smart Policing Initiative
Michael White & Charles Katz
Police Quarterly, September 2013, Pages 305-322
Abstract:
The Glendale, Arizona Police Department received funding in 2009 through the Bureau of Justice Assistance's Smart Policing Initiative (SPI). The Glendale team employed problem-oriented policing to address crime and disorder at convenience stores throughout the city. The SPI team's analysis demonstrated that crime was disproportionately occurring at Circle K stores and that store management practices were largely responsible for the crime problem. The Glendale SPI team developed a multipronged response that included intervention with Circle K leadership and the implementation of prevention and suppression strategies. Results indicate that crime dropped significantly at the SPI target stores (42%) from the year preceding the intervention to the year after. This decline is inconsistent with crime patterns witnessed at the remaining convenience stores in the city of Glendale. The article concludes with a discussion of how police departments can successfully engage with private sector corporations on issues of crime, disorder, and community safety.
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Matthew Theriot
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
School resource officer (SRO) programs that place sworn law enforcement officers at schools are a popular violence prevention strategy. Despite widespread implementation, little is known about the impact of interacting with these officers on students' attitudes about SROs and feelings of school connectedness. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of SRO interaction on the attitudes and feelings of 1,956 middle and high school students at 12 schools in one school district. Multivariate analyses showed that more SRO interactions increased students' positive attitudes about SROs yet decreased school connectedness. Overall, the results suggested a complex relationship between SRO interactions, students' attitudes, and experiences with school violence. The implications of these results and strategies for how officers can contribute to a positive school environment are discussed.
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Dark Knights Rising: The Aurora Theater and Newtown School Massacres and Shareholder Wealth
Benjamin Cross & Stephen Pruitt
Journal of Criminal Justice, November-December 2013, Pages 452-457
Purpose: This study analyzes the stock price impact of the Aurora theater and Newtown (Sandy Hook) school massacres on both domestic (US) and foreign theater operators and US gun manufacturers in an effort to document the economic effects of these tragedies.
Methods: The well-established "event study" methodology from the fields of economics and finance is employed to assess the impact of the shootings on the affected companies after controlling for risk and overall market movements.
Results: The Aurora theater shooting resulted in striking declines for Cinemark (the targeted theater) as well as major US competitors, but had no impact on overseas theater chains. Smith & Wesson (maker of the gun used in Aurora) showed no response, whereas Ruger (a competitor) exhibited large gains. Both Smith & Wesson and Ruger plunged after the Newtown shooting, although neither made the weapons used in the shooting.
Conclusions: Contrary to prior research on workplace homicides, the results show that random mass shootings have profound effects on targeted companies. In addition, the results suggest the presence of a very strong "contagion effect" (where negative events affecting one company impact others in the same industry). The negative responses of both publicly-traded US firearms manufacturers to the Newtown shooting suggests a "sea-change" in the debate over gun ownership in the US.
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Mikko Aaltonen & Venla Salmi
Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention, forthcoming
Abstract:
While illegal downloading of copyrighted content from the Internet is a very common form of law-breaking, it has attracted relatively little attention among criminologists. Using the Finnish Self-Report Delinquency Survey 2012 (n = 4,855), the current study analyses the overlap between traditional juvenile crime and intensity of illegal downloading, and examines the determinants of illegal downloading in light of control theories. Despite the fact that the majority of youths download, the intensity of downloading has a strong positive association with other forms of delinquency. Measures of self-control and parental social control emerge as significant predictors of frequent downloading.
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Operation LASER and the Effectiveness of Hotspot Patrol: A Panel Analysis
Craig Uchida & Marc Swatt
Police Quarterly, September 2013, Pages 287-304
Abstract:
Operation LASER (Los Angeles' Strategic Extraction and Restoration program) is a program conducted by the Los Angeles Police Department Newton Division to reduce gun violence as part of the Smart Policing Initiative. There are two components to this operation: a chronic offender component and a chronic location component. In the current study, the effectiveness of Operation LASER was assessed at the reporting district (RD) level using a panel design. Initial results indicated that there was a significant reduction in gun crime in RDs in Newton compared to RDs from other divisions. The treatment effect was decomposed into RDs that received both the chronic offender and chronic location components and that received only the chronic offender component. Results suggested that the reduction in gun crime was only observed in those RDs receiving both the chronic offender and location components. Implications of the current study for policy are then discussed.
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Far-Right Lone Wolf Homicides in the United States
Jeff Gruenewald, Steven Chermak & Joshua Freilich
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, forthcoming
Abstract:
Little is known about the nature of far-right lone wolf terrorism and how this form of violence varies across different types of suspects. Relying on data from the Extremist Crime Database (ECDB), we comparatively examine characteristics of far-right homicides in the United States perpetrated by suspects with no evident affiliations with domestic terrorist organizations. Surprisingly, we found that this form of lone wolf terrorism has generally not increased during the past decade. We also found important differences, such as in suspects' mental health, in statuses of homicide offenders who operate alone compared to those who associate or act with others.
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Stalking: Does it Leave a Psychological Footprint?
Timothy Diette et al.
Social Science Quarterly, forthcoming
Objectives: This article offers new evidence on whether stalking damages the mental health of female victims. This study advances the literature by accounting for age of initial stalking victimization, mental health status prior to being stalked, and exposure to other forms of traumatic victimization.
Methods: Using logistical analysis, we utilize data drawn from three large national data sets.
Results: We find that being the victim of stalking as a young adult, ages 18-45, significantly increases the odds of initial onset of psychological distress; however, this is not the case for victims ages 12-17.
Conclusions: Stalking has emerged as a deeply disturbing public issue because of its prevalence and the fear it creates in victims. Unfortunately, little is known about the psychological consequences of being stalked because the emerging literature typically is based on small, nonrandom samples. Our findings highlight the benefits of reducing stalking and the importance of supporting victims.
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Christoph Engel et al.
International Review of Law and Economics, March 2014, Pages 126-136
Abstract:
Broken Windows: the metaphor has changed New York and Los Angeles. Yet it is far from undisputed whether the broken windows policy was causal for reducing crime. The scope of the theory is not confined to crime. The theory claims that crime is inextricably linked to social order more generally. In a series of lab experiments we put two components of this more general theory to the test. We show that first impressions and early punishment of antisocial behaviour are independently and jointly causal for cooperativeness. The effect of good first impressions and of early vigilance cannot be explained with, but adds to, participants' initial level of benevolence. Mere impression management is not strong enough to maintain cooperation. Cooperation stabilizes if good first impressions are combined with some risk of sanctions. Yet if we control for first impressions, early vigilance only has a small effect. The effect vanishes over time.
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Grant Duwe
Criminal Justice Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using a randomized experimental design, this study evaluated the effectiveness of the Minnesota Comprehensive Offender Reentry Plan (MCORP), a prisoner reentry pilot project implemented in 2008. In an effort to reduce recidivism, MCORP attempted to increase offender access to community services and programming by producing greater case management collaboration between caseworkers in prison and supervision agents in the community. Results from Cox regression models showed that MCORP significantly reduced four of the five recidivism measures examined, although the size of the reduction in hazard ratios was relatively modest (20-25%). The findings further suggested that MCORP reduced costs. Sensitivity analyses showed, however, that the cost avoidance estimates were not robust across all assumptions that were examined.