Findings

Unnatural

Kevin Lewis

September 16, 2015

Enforcing the Clean Water Act: The Effect of State-level Corruption on Compliance

Katherine Grooms
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, forthcoming

Abstract:
This paper uses an event study to examine the transition from federal to state management of the Clean Water Act (CWA). I find that, overall, the transition from federal to state control has little effect on facility compliance, measured by the violation rate. However, states with a long run prevalence of corruption see a large decrease in the violation rate after authorization relative to states without corruption. Alternative specifications support these findings. I explore whether the response to transition to state control differs across political ideology, GDP and income per capita, government size, environmental preferences and government management performance. None of these alternative state level characteristics seem to account for the observed difference.

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“No Fracking Way!” Documentary Film, Discursive Opportunity, and Local Opposition against Hydraulic Fracturing in the United States, 2010 to 2013

Ion Bogdan Vasi et al.
American Sociological Review, forthcoming

Abstract:
Recent scholarship highlights the importance of public discourse for the mobilization and impact of social movements, but it neglects how cultural products may shift discourse and thereby influence mobilization and political outcomes. This study investigates how activism against hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) utilized cultural artifacts to influence public perceptions and effect change. A systematic analysis of Internet search data, social media postings, and newspaper articles allows us to identify how the documentary Gasland reshaped public discourse. We find that Gasland contributed not only to greater online searching about fracking, but also to increased social media chatter and heightened mass media coverage. Local screenings of Gasland contributed to anti-fracking mobilizations, which, in turn, affected the passage of local fracking moratoria in the Marcellus Shale states. These results have implications not only for understanding movement outcomes, but also for theory and research on media, the environment, and energy.

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U.S. housing prices and the Fukushima nuclear accident

Alexander Fink & Thomas Stratmann
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, September 2015, Pages 309–326

Abstract:
Did the nuclear catastrophe at Fukushima in March 2011 cause individuals to reappraise the risks they attach to nuclear power plants? We investigate the change in home prices in the U.S. after the Fukushima event to test the hypothesis that home prices in the proximity of power plants fell due to an updated nuclear risk perception. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we do not find evidence in support of the hypothesis that individuals reappraised the risks associated with nuclear power plants. According to our results home prices close to nuclear reactor sites did not fall relative to home prices at other locations in the U.S.

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Is tree loss associated with cardiovascular-disease risk in the Women's Health Initiative? A natural experiment

Geoffrey Donovan et al.
Health & Place, November 2015, Pages 1–7

Abstract:
Data from the Women's Health Initiative were used to quantify the relationship between the loss of trees to an invasive forest pest — the emerald ash borer — and cardiovascular disease. We estimated a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model of time to cardiovascular disease, adjusting for confounders. We defined the incidence of cardiovascular disease as acute myocardial infarction requiring overnight hospitalization, silent MI determined from serial electrocardiograms, ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke, or death from coronary heart disease. Women living in a county infested with emerald ash borer had an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (HR=1.25, 95% CI: 1.20–1.31).

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Unconventional Gas and Oil Drilling Is Associated with Increased Hospital Utilization Rates

Thomas Jemielita et al.
PLoS ONE, July 2015

Abstract:
Over the past ten years, unconventional gas and oil drilling (UGOD) has markedly expanded in the United States. Despite substantial increases in well drilling, the health consequences of UGOD toxicant exposure remain unclear. This study examines an association between wells and healthcare use by zip code from 2007 to 2011 in Pennsylvania. Inpatient discharge databases from the Pennsylvania Healthcare Cost Containment Council were correlated with active wells by zip code in three counties in Pennsylvania. For overall inpatient prevalence rates and 25 specific medical categories, the association of inpatient prevalence rates with number of wells per zip code and, separately, with wells per km2 (separated into quantiles and defined as well density) were estimated using fixed-effects Poisson models. To account for multiple comparisons, a Bonferroni correction with associations of p<0.00096 was considered statistically significant. Cardiology inpatient prevalence rates were significantly associated with number of wells per zip code (p<0.00096) and wells per km2 (p<0.00096) while neurology inpatient prevalence rates were significantly associated with wells per km2 (p<0.00096). Furthermore, evidence also supported an association between well density and inpatient prevalence rates for the medical categories of dermatology, neurology, oncology, and urology. These data suggest that UGOD wells, which dramatically increased in the past decade, were associated with increased inpatient prevalence rates within specific medical categories in Pennsylvania. Further studies are necessary to address healthcare costs of UGOD and determine whether specific toxicants or combinations are associated with organ-specific responses.

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Fracking and environmental (in)justice in a Texas city

Matthew Fry, Adam Briggle & Jordan Kincaid
Ecological Economics, September 2015, Pages 97–107

Abstract:
Shale gas development (SGD) via horizontal drilling and fracking is touted for economic benefits and spurned for health and environmental impacts. Despite SGD's socioecological salience, few peer-reviewed, empirical studies document the distribution of positive and negative effects. The City of Denton, Texas has ~ 280 active gas wells and over a decade of SGD. Here we use an environmental justice framework to analyze the distribution of SGD's costs and benefits within Denton. Using data on mineral property values from 2002 to 2013 and gas well locations, we ask: who owns Denton's mineral rights (i.e. the greatest financial beneficiaries) and how does this ownership pattern relate to who lives near gas wells (i.e. those who shoulder the nuisances and health impacts)? Our results show that Denton's mineral wealth is widely distributed around the U.S., residents own 1% of the total value extracted, and the city government is a large financial beneficiary. In addition to distributional inequities, our analysis demonstrates that split estate doctrine, legal deference to mineral owners, and SGD's uniqueness in urban centers create disparities in municipal SGD decision-making processes. The environmental justice issues associated with fracking in Denton also provide one possible explanation for residents' November 2014 vote to ban hydraulic fracturing.

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Trends in Exposure to Industrial Air Toxins for Different Racial and Socioeconomic Groups: A Spatial and Temporal Examination of Environmental Inequality in the U.S. from 1995 to 2004

Kerry Ard
Social Science Research, September 2015, Pages 375–390

Abstract:
In recent decades there have been dramatic declines in industrial air toxins. However, there has yet to be a national study investigating if the drop has mitigated the unequal exposure to industrial toxins by race and social class. This paper addresses this by developing a unique dataset of air pollution exposure estimates, by aggregating the annual fall-out location of 415 air toxins, from 17,604 facilities, for the years 1995 to 2004 up to Census block groups (N=216,159/year). These annual estimates of exposure were matched with census data to calculate trends in exposure for different racial and socioeconomic groups. Results show that exposure to air toxins has decreased for everyone, but African-Americans are consistently more exposed than Whites and Hispanics and socioeconomic status is not as protective for African-Americans. These results by race were further explored using spatially specified multilevel models which examine trends over time and across institutional boundaries.

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Race, Deprivation, and Immigrant Isolation: The Spatial Demography of Air-Toxic Clusters in the Continental United States

Raoul Liévanos
Social Science Research, November 2015, Pages 50–67

Abstract:
This article contributes to environmental inequality outcomes research on the spatial and demographic factors associated with cumulative air-toxic health risks at multiple geographic scales across the United States. It employs a rigorous spatial cluster analysis of census tract-level 2005 estimated lifetime cancer risk (LCR) of ambient air-toxic emissions from stationary (e.g., facility) and mobile (e.g., vehicular) sources to locate spatial clusters of air-toxic LCR risk in the continental United States. It then tests intersectional environmental inequality hypotheses on the predictors of tract presence in air-toxic LCR clusters with tract-level principal component factor measures of economic deprivation by race and immigrant status. Logistic regression analyses show that net of controls, isolated Latino immigrant-economic deprivation is the strongest positive demographic predictor of tract presence in air-toxic LCR clusters, followed by black-economic deprivation and isolated Asian/Pacific Islander immigrant-economic deprivation. Findings suggest scholarly and practical implications for future research, advocacy, and policy.

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Do Consumers Recognize the Value of Fuel Economy? Evidence from Used Car Prices and Gasoline Price Fluctuations

James Sallee, Sarah West & Wei Fan
NBER Working Paper, July 2015

Abstract:
Debate about the appropriate design of energy policy hinges critically on whether consumers might undervalue energy efficiency, due to myopia or some other manifestation of limited rationality. We contribute to this debate by measuring consumers' willingness to pay for fuel economy using a novel identification strategy and high quality microdata from wholesale used car auctions. We leverage differences in future fuel costs across otherwise identical vehicles that have different current mileage, and therefore different remaining lifetimes. By seeing how price differences across high and low mileage vehicles of different fuel economies change in response to shocks to the price of gasoline, we estimate the relationship between vehicle prices and future fuel costs. Our data suggest that used automobile prices move one for one with changes in present discounted future fuel costs, which implies that consumers fully value fuel economy.

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Crop Prices, Agricultural Revenues, and the Rural Economy

Jeremy Weber et al.
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, September 2015, Pages 459-476

Abstract:
Policy makers in the United States often justify agricultural subsidies by stressing that agriculture is the engine of the rural economy. We use the increase in crop prices in the late 2000s to estimate the marginal effect of increased agricultural revenues on local economies in the U.S. Heartland. We find that $1 more in crop revenue generated 64¢ in personal income, with most going to farm proprietors and workers (59%) or nonfarmers who own farm assets (36%). The evidence suggests a weak link between revenues and nonfarm income or employment, or on population. Cuts to agricultural subsidies are therefore likely to have little effect on the broader rural economy in regions like the Heartland.

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The potential of alternative fuel vehicles: A cost-benefit analysis

Yutaka Ito & Shunsuke Managi
Research in Transportation Economics, forthcoming

Abstract:
This study investigates the economic validity of the diffusion of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and all-electric vehicles (EVs), employing a cost-benefit analysis from the social point of view. This research assumes the amount of NOx and tank-to-wheel CO2 emissions and gasoline use reduction as the benefits and the purchase costs, infrastructure expenses, and maintenance costs of alternative vehicles as the costs of switching internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to alternative energy vehicles. In addition, this study conducts a sensitivity analysis considering cost reductions in FCV and EV production and increasing costs for CO2 abatement as well as increasing gasoline prices. In summary, the results show that the diffusion of FCVs is not economically beneficial until 2110, even if the FCV purchase cost decreases to that of an ICE vehicle. EV diffusion might be beneficial by 2060 depending on increases in gasoline prices and CO2 abatement costs.

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When top predators become prey: Black bears alter movement behaviour in response to hunting pressure

Milena Stillfried et al.
Behavioural Processes, November 2015, Pages 30–39

Abstract:
The trade-off between predator avoidance and foraging is a key decision making factor that shapes an organism's adaptive behaviour and movement patterns. Human hunters act as top predators to influence the behaviour of free-ranging mammals, including large carnivorous species such as black bears (Ursus americanus). Analysing the effects of hunting on animal behavioural patterns is essential for understanding the extent to which animals detect and respond to human-induced disturbances. To this end, we assessed whether black bear movement behaviour changed with varying risk from spatially and temporally heterogeneous human predation. Levels of risk were categorized as either low (disturbance from dog training; n = 19 bears) or high (disturbance from hunting activities; n = 11 bears). Road types were either paved (risk due to vehicles) or non-paved (risk due to hunters) and were used as proxies for hunting effort and amount of disturbance. We began by testing the null hypothesis that bears’ distribution before the onset of human disturbance is spatially random. Next, to test temporal movement adjustment between the low and high risk levels, we measured the distance to the nearest road and the road crossing frequency using mixed effects models with risk level, time of day and sex as predictor variables. As disturbance near non-paved roads increased due to the start of the hunting activity, the mean distances of bears to non-paved roads increased while the mean distances of bears to paved roads decreased, despite the continual risk of vehicle collision. These behavioural responses were observed during day and night, with the frequency of crossing paved roads at night five times greater than in daytime during the hunting season. Our findings demonstrate that black bears are able to detect risky places and adjust their spatial movements accordingly. More specifically, bears can perceive changes in the level of risk from human hunting activities on a fine temporal scale.

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A phantom road experiment reveals traffic noise is an invisible source of habitat degradation

Heidi Ware et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming

Abstract:
Decades of research demonstrate that roads impact wildlife and suggest traffic noise as a primary cause of population declines near roads. We created a “phantom road” using an array of speakers to apply traffic noise to a roadless landscape, directly testing the effect of noise alone on an entire songbird community during autumn migration. Thirty-one percent of the bird community avoided the phantom road. For individuals that stayed despite the noise, overall body condition decreased by a full SD and some species showed a change in ability to gain body condition when exposed to traffic noise during migratory stopover. We conducted complementary laboratory experiments that implicate foraging-vigilance behavior as one mechanism driving this pattern. Our results suggest that noise degrades habitat that is otherwise suitable, and that the presence of a species does not indicate the absence of an impact.

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How Much Can We Expect the Rise in U.S. Domestic Energy Production to Suppress Net Energy Imports?

Richard York
Social Currents, September 2015, Pages 222-230

Abstract:
A reason commonly stated by policymakers in the United States for increasing domestic energy production is to reduce energy imports. However, the degree to which domestic production actually displaces imports is an open question. To help provide an answer to this question, I analyze data for the United States from 1960 to 2011 to assess how many units of imported energy are suppressed by each unit of domestic production, controlling for economic activity and energy prices. I show that the pattern is one where domestic energy production spurs energy use, so that the effect of production on net imports is less than one-for-one. This finding has important implications, which I discuss, about the ease with which reliance on foreign energy sources can be overcome and about the environmental consequences of rising domestic production.

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Changes in Public and Private Environmentally Responsible Behaviors by Gender: Findings from the 1994 and 2010 General Social Survey

Adam Yates et al.
Sociological Inquiry, forthcoming

Abstract:
We examine gender differences in public and private environmentally responsible behaviors (ERBs) and whether and how these differences changed between 1994 and 2010. We consider how political attitudes and environmental concern influence the relationship between gender and ERBs. Ordinary least squares regression models were estimated using the 1994 and 2010 General Social Survey. The study results indicate that women had higher levels of private ERBs than men in 1994 and 2010. Political ideology and environmental concern partially explain gender differences in private ERBs in 1994 and fully explain them in 2010. Men and women have similar levels of public ERBs in 1994; in 2010, men's level of public ERBs is significantly higher than women's, after controlling for political ideology and environmental concern. In addition, there are some gender differences in the effects of political orientation and environmental concern on ERBs. Our study indicates that the relationship between gender and environmentalism is complex and that concern and political orientation should be considered when designing strategies to enhance ERBs.


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