Safe and sound
Framing Punishment: Incarceration, Recommended Sentences, and Recidivism
Shawn Bushway & Emily Owens
Journal of Law and Economics, May 2013, Pages 301-331
Abstract:
No consensus has emerged about how, or even if, incarceration affects the behavior of convicted offenders. One unexplored mechanism involves the possibility that the disutility of punishment is affected by both the actual punishment an offender receives and the sentence that he thinks could have been given, a psychological effect known as framing. We test for framing effects in punishment by exploiting a legal change in Maryland that altered recommended, but not actual, sentences for a subset of offenders. Using an individual-level data set of convictions, incarceration, and arrests, we find that longer recommended sentences are associated with higher rates of recidivism, conditional on actual punishment. Our results suggest that large discrepancies between the "bark" and "bite" of the criminal justice system may make incarceration less effective at reducing crime.
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Dependence of the Firearm-Related Homicide Rate on Gun Availability: A Mathematical Analysis
Dominik Wodarz & Natalia Komarova
PLoS ONE, July 2013
Abstract:
In the USA, the relationship between the legal availability of guns and the firearm-related homicide rate has been debated. It has been argued that unrestricted gun availability promotes the occurrence of firearm-induced homicides. It has also been pointed out that gun possession can protect potential victims when attacked. This paper provides a first mathematical analysis of this tradeoff, with the goal to steer the debate towards arguing about assumptions, statistics, and scientific methods. The model is based on a set of clearly defined assumptions, which are supported by available statistical data, and is formulated axiomatically such that results do not depend on arbitrary mathematical expressions. According to this framework, two alternative scenarios can minimize the gun-related homicide rate: a ban of private firearms possession, or a policy allowing the general population to carry guns. Importantly, the model identifies the crucial parameters that determine which policy minimizes the death rate, and thus serves as a guide for the design of future epidemiological studies. The parameters that need to be measured include the fraction of offenders that illegally possess a gun, the degree of protection provided by gun ownership, and the fraction of the population who take up their right to own a gun and carry it when attacked. Limited data available in the literature were used to demonstrate how the model can be parameterized, and this preliminary analysis suggests that a ban of private firearm possession, or possibly a partial reduction in gun availability, might lower the rate of firearm-induced homicides. This, however, should not be seen as a policy recommendation, due to the limited data available to inform and parameterize the model. However, the model clearly defines what needs to be measured, and provides a basis for a scientific discussion about assumptions and data.
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Intended and Unintended Consequences of Prison Reform
Richard Boylan & Naci Mocan
Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, forthcoming
Abstract:
The United States Supreme Court ruled in May 2011 that prison overcrowding in California constituted cruel and unusual punishment. This decision revived a long-standing debate among scholars and policy makers as to whether courts should intervene to protect the well-being of the disfranchised, by forcing states to improve schools, prisons, and mental institutions. We use data that span 1951-2006 to examine the impact of federal court orders condemning prison crowding, and the impact of states' releases from these court orders. We find that these interventions are associated with lower inmate mortality rates and fewer prisoners per capita. Correctional expenditures increase and welfare cash expenditures decrease while states are under court order, suggesting that the burden of improved prison conditions is borne by welfare recipients. Furthermore, states do not alter correctional spending and welfare cash payments spending after their release from court order, making the original changes in spending permanent.
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Teenagers' High Arrest Rates: Features of Young Age or Youth Poverty?
Mike Males & Elizabeth Brown
Journal of Adolescent Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
The association of more crime with youthful age is widely accepted in social science. However, a literature search revealed no studies of the age-crime relationship that controlled for young ages' economic disadvantage. This research gap is addressed using the California Criminal Justice Statistics Center's arrest detail and Census poverty statistics for 2010. When poverty rates were controlled, younger and older ages' violence disparities largely disappeared. Where teenagers and emerging adults display typical middle-aged demographics (two thirds non-Latino, White, or Asian, poverty levels under 10%), they display "middle-aged" violent crime rates; where ages 40 to 69 have typical teenage demographics (54% Black or Latino, 17% in poverty), they display "teenaged" violent crime levels. These findings challenge conventional theories associating violence with young age.
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Elaine Sharp
Urban Affairs Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper sets forth the hypothesis that the more that a city's economy reflects the creative class and cultural tourism elements that characterize "new economy"-style postindustrial cities, the more that the police will emphasize heightened order maintenance. Such a thesis is evident in case studies on innovations in urban social control and on cities aspiring to global city status. But the thesis needs empirical test across a large sample of cities that vary on "new economy" status, with alternative explanations for variation in order maintenance policing simultaneously taken into account. This paper provides that test for cities above 100,000 in population, controlling for variables representing the racial threat thesis, governing institutions, community policing, and policing demands and constraints. The results provide robust support for the postindustrial policing hypothesis.
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A Longitudinal Assessment of the Impact of Foreclosure on Neighborhood Crime
Charles Katz, Danielle Wallace & E.C. Hedberg
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, August 2013, Pages 359-389
Objectives: To examine possible effects of housing foreclosure on neighborhood levels of crime and to assess temporal lags in the impact of foreclosure on neighborhood levels of crime.
Methods: Longitudinal data from Glendale, Arizona, a city at the epicenter of the nation's foreclosure problem. The authors rely on four data sources: (1) foreclosure data, (2) computer-aided dispatch (CAD)/police records management system (RMS) data, (3) U.S. census and census estimate data, and (4) land use data.
Results: Foreclosure has a short-term impact, typically no more than 3 months, on total crime, property crime, and violent crime, and no more than 4 months for drug crime.
Conclusions: Foreclosures do not have a long-term effect on crime in general, and have different, though modest effects on different types of crime. The relationship between foreclosure and crime is not linear in nature but rather is characterized by a temporal, short-term flux in crime.
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Increased Voting for Candidates Who Compensate Victims Rather than Punish Offenders
Gabrielle Adams & Elizabeth Mullen
Social Justice Research, June 2013, Pages 168-192
Abstract:
Three studies demonstrate that people are more likely to vote for political candidates who respond to injustice in a compensatory rather than punitive manner. Participants were more likely to vote for candidates who responded to various transgressions (the Darfur crisis, campus bike theft, and domestic violence) by compensating victims (or simultaneously compensating victims and punishing perpetrators) rather than solely punishing the perpetrator or not responding. Furthermore, participants' perceptions of candidates' warmth (but not competence) mediated the relationship between punishing versus compensating and voting.
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Adam Lankford
Homicide Studies, August 2013, Pages 255-274
Abstract:
This study presents results from the first combined quantitative assessment and comparative analysis of suicide terrorists and rampage, workplace, and school shooters who attempt suicide. Findings suggest that in the United States from 1990 to 2010, the differences between these offenders (N = 81) were largely superficial. Prior to their attacks, they struggled with many of the same personal problems, including social marginalization, family problems, work or school problems, and precipitating crisis events. Ultimately, patterns among all four types of offenders can assist those developing security policy, conducting threat assessments, and attempting to intervene in the lives of at-risk individuals.
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The Importance of Demonstratively Restoring Order
Kees Keizer, Siegwart Lindenberg & Linda Steg
PLoS ONE, June 2013
Abstract:
Contrary to what is often assumed, order is not the strongest context for encouraging normative behavior. The strongest context effect on normative behavior comes from cues that clearly convey other people's respect for norms. Ironically, this show of respect necessitates some contrasting disrespect that is being restored. Using civic virtues (such as helping behavior) as a prototype of normative behavior, the three field experiments described in this paper reveal the impact of normative cues on civic virtues. Results show that the strongest effect on making people follow prosocial norms in public places emanates from seeing order being restored, rather than just order being present. The robust and surprisingly large effects show that observing other people's respect for one particular norm (as evidenced in their restoring physical order) makes it more likely that the onlooker follows other norms as well. This implies that prosocial behavior has the highest chance of spreading when people observe order being restored. There are clear policy implications: create low cost "normative respect cues" wherever it is desirable to increase conformity to norms.
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From War to Prison: Examining the Relationship Between Military Service and Criminal Activity
Richard Culp et al.
Justice Quarterly, July/August 2013, Pages 651-680
Abstract:
In February of 2008 the New York Times ran a series - War Torn - on Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans and their adjustment to civilian life upon return from the war zone. The authors assessed the criminal involvement of veterans by using newspaper accounts and other open source data to identify homicides in which the offender was an Afghanistan or Iraq war veteran. This particular aspect of the series drew a great deal of criticism, in part because of disagreements about the wisdom of the wars, but also because the sources of data used were perceived as less than systematic and accurate. This series and the debate that it engendered raised once again to prominence the issue of whether veterans are disproportionately involved in crime upon their return from service and specifically from combat assignments. The series also raised the question of whether media accounts of violent behavior by returning combat veterans are simply anecdotal or if they portend a more system-wide problem. This paper uses data from the Surveys of Inmates of State and Federal Correctional Facilities and the Current Population Surveys from 1985 to 2004 to estimate more systematically the prevalence and nature of the offending by military veterans in civilian society. The study seeks to avoid some of the methodological weaknesses of earlier studies that examined the criminal behavior of returning veterans. Specifically, the research considers whether criminal behavior, as reflected in the likelihood of imprisonment, is affected by military service, era of service, or service during wartime after controlling for social and demographic characteristics associated with offending. The findings indicate that military service in general is not predictive of incarceration when key demographic and social integration variables are taken into account. Service during wartime was found to be inversely related to subsequent incarceration, while veterans of the post-1973 All Volunteer Force were more likely to be incarcerated than were civilians and veterans who served during the draft era.
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The Impact on Taxpayer Costs of a Jail Diversion Program for People with Serious Mental Illness
Alexander Cowell et al.
Evaluation and Program Planning, forthcoming
Abstract:
Mental illness is prevalent among those incarcerated. Jail diversion is one means by which people with mental illness are treated in the community - often with some criminal justice system oversight - instead of being incarcerated. Jail diversion may lead to immediate reductions in taxpayer costs because the person is no longer significantly engaged with the criminal justice system. It may also lead to longer term reductions in costs because effective treatment may ameliorate symptoms, reduce the number of future offenses, and thus subsequent arrests and incarceration. This study estimates the impact on taxpayer costs of a model jail diversion program for people with serious mental illness. Administrative data on criminal justice and treatment events were combined with primary and secondary data on the costs of each event. Propensity score methods and a quasi-experimental design were used to compare treatment and criminal justice costs for a group of people who were diverted to a group of people who were not diverted. Diversion was associated with approximately $2,800 lower taxpayer costs per person 2 years after the point of diversion (p < .05). Reductions in criminal justice costs drove this result. Jail diversion for people with mental illness may thus be justified fiscally.
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No Evidence of Specific Deterrence under Penal Moderation: Imprisonment and Recidivism in Finland
Reino Sirén & Jukka Savolainen
Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention, forthcoming
Abstract:
International literature on prison effects on recidivism tends to find little evidence of specific deterrence. If anything, imprisonment seems more likely to increase than decrease rates of offending. The present study adds to this literature by examining imprisonment and recidivism in Finland, a nation characterized by an exceptionally moderate penal culture. It has been suggested that severe sanctions need to be imposed selectively in order for them to be effective. In this research, we estimated the impact of first imprisonment on recidivism in comparison with offenders sentenced to either suspended imprisonment or community service. Using data from government population registries, we controlled for a large number of legal and extra-legal confounding factors, including criminal history and socio-demographic characteristics. We found no evidence of reduced recidivism as a result of imprisonment. Instead, consistent with prior research, we find evidence of increased recidivism in certain offender categories. We conclude with a discussion of policy implications.
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Here and Gone: Anticipation and Separation Effects of Prison Visits on Inmate Infractions
Sonja Siennick, Daniel Mears & William Bales
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, August 2013, Pages 417-444
Objectives: This study examines the effect of prison visitation on the probability of inmate misconduct.
Method: Our sample is an admissions cohort of over 7,000 inmates admitted to Florida correctional facilities between 2000 and 2002. The authors conducted multilevel analyses of the week-to-week association between officially recorded disciplinary infractions and prison visits, including spousal, significant other, parental, relative, and friend visits.
Results: The probability of an in-prison infraction declines in anticipation of visits, increases immediately following visits, and then gradually declines to average levels. This pattern is relatively consistent across visitors and infraction types but is strongest for spousal visits and contraband infractions. More frequent visits are associated with a more rapid postvisit decline.
Conclusions: If visits reduce the pains of imprisonment or increase social control, then these effects may be too short-lived to create lasting improvements in the behavior of individuals while incarcerated. Future research should attempt to replicate and explain these findings and examine the longer term effects of visitation on inmate adjustment during and after incarceration.
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Residence Restrictions and the Association With Registered Sex Offender Clustering
Kelly Socia
Criminal Justice Policy Review, July 2013, Pages 441-472
Abstract:
This study examined whether sex offender residence restriction policies were associated with the clustering of registered sex offender (RSO) residences in 3,056 upstate New York block groups. RSO clustering was measured as the average distance between an RSO and the five closest RSO neighbors, and was aggregated to the block group level. Controls were included for structural characteristics of block groups as well as regional differences within the study area. Results indicate that block groups with relatively newer residence restrictions had decreased RSO clustering (i.e., RSOs living farther apart from each other) compared to block groups without such policies. However, block groups that had residence restrictions for longer than about 2 years had similar RSO clustering levels to block groups without such policies. Results suggest a nonlinear relationship between how long a residence restriction is in place and RSO clustering levels. Implications for future research and policy are discussed.
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Gayle Rhineberger-Dunn
Sociological Inquiry, August 2013, Pages 473-497
Abstract:
While the extant literature on the social construction of crime in the media is extensive, little literature exists on the media's construction of juvenile delinquency in newspapers, particularly in small cities. Even though smaller metropolitan areas have lower crime rates, how these newspapers construct delinquency undoubtedly impacts the attitudes, behaviors, and fears of residents, perhaps more so than in larger metropolitan areas. The purpose of this research is to assess how newspapers from five of the smallest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) socially construct juvenile delinquency, offenders and victims, and to assess whether or not these images perpetuate myths related to juvenile delinquency. An analysis of 231 articles indicates that small-MSA newspapers construct an inaccurate image of juvenile offenders that significantly promotes the myth of juveniles as violent predators. Specifically, juvenile offenders are constructed as violent predators with innocent, random victims. In contrast, newspapers construct a more accurate picture of victims, with females represented as the most common juvenile victim, and sexual assault victimization as the most common of all juvenile violent crime victimization.
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"A Good Man Always Knows His Limitations": The Role of Overconfidence in Criminal Offending
Thomas Loughran et al.
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, August 2013, Pages 327-358
Objectives: This study examines the prevalence of overconfidence in the perceived risk of committing crime and whether such overconfidence is related to criminal behavior.
Methods: Two samples were used - a sample of high school students who committed minor offenses and a sample of serious juvenile offenders most with felony arrests. Overconfidence in risk was estimated as the difference between the perceived risk of arrest for one's self and for a generalized other. The proportion of over- and underconfident persons were estimated in both samples, while pooled and random effects logit models were used to estimate the effect of risk on both self-reported offending and arrest within the sample of serious offenders.
Results: A large proportion of youth were found to be overconfident with respect to their perceived risk, with a higher prevalence in the conventional high school sample. Within the sample of serious juvenile offenders, being overconfident about one's own risk was found to be related to both self-reported offending and arrest, net of a base rate measure of others' risk.
Conclusions: We outline a theory of the relationship between overconfidence and crime that links overconfidence with a self-attribution bias and biased updating of perceived risk with new information.
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The deterrence of crime through private security efforts: Theory and evidence
Paul Zimmerman
International Review of Law and Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Private individuals and entities invest in a wide variety of market-provisioned self-protection devices or services to mitigate their probability of victimization to crime. However, evaluating the effect of such private security measures remains understudied in the economics of crime literature. Unlike most previous studies, the present analysis considers four separate measures of private security: security guards, detectives and investigators, security system installers, and locksmiths. The effects of laws allowing the concealed carrying of weapons are also evaluated. As private security efforts are potentially endogenous to crime rates, dynamic panel data methods are used to estimate their impacts on crime. The empirical results suggest that the impact of private security efforts generally varies across crime types, though there appears to be a robust negative relationship between the employment of security system installers and the rate of property offenses.
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Sexual Violence against Women and Labor Market Outcomes
Joseph Sabia, Angela Dills & Jeffrey DeSimone
American Economic Review, May 2013, Pages 274-278
Abstract:
This study is the first in the economics literature to explore the labor market consequences of sexual violence toward women. Using data from the Add Health, we find that sexual violence against women is associated with a 6.6 percent lower probability of labor force participation and 5.1 percent lower average wages. These estimates are robust to controls for unobserved heterogeneity at the school- and family-levels, as well as detailed controls for personality, personal discount rates, and risk preferences. We find that the adverse labor market effects of sexual violence are partially explained by its adverse psychological and physical consequences.
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Aki Roberts & Steven Block
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, August 2013, Pages 445-471
Objectives: To apply crime-specific models based on differing potential offender pools and opportunity structures to temporary and permanent motor vehicle theft (MVT).
Method: Using 310 U.S. cities with 50,000 or more residents, the current study developed and examined crime-specific multivariate models for temporary and permanent MVT rates. To evaluate the distinctiveness of crime-specific variables' associations with each MVT type, the study also predicted each MVT rate via measures theoretically specific to the other.
Results: Among temporary-specific variables, young male population and the percentage of households without a vehicle were positively associated with temporary MVT. Permanent-specific measures of adult male property offender pool size, percentage of households with high disposable income, unemployment, U.S.-Mexico border proximity, and auto-related businesses were associated with permanent MVT (though in an unexpected direction for disposable income). Some variables were associated with both types of MVT, but young male population was uniquely associated with temporary MVT while unemployment rate, distance to U.S.-Mexico border and number of auto-related businesses were specific to permanent MVT.
Conclusions: Findings suggest that specific prevention approaches are needed for each type of MVT. Shortcomings of the research include potential misclassification of temporary and permanent MVT and lack of some potentially important opportunity variables.