Random walks
Are institutions informed about news?
Terrence Hendershott, Dmitry Livdan & Norman Schürhoff
Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming
Abstract
This paper combines daily buy and sell institutional trading volume with all news announcements from Reuters. Using institutional order flow (buy volume minus sell volume) we find a variety of evidence that institutions are informed. Institutional trading volume predicts the occurrence of news announcements. Institutional order flow predicts: (i) the sentiment of the news; (ii) the stock market reaction on news announcement days; (iii) the stock market reaction on crisis news days; and (iv) earnings announcement surprises. These results suggest that significant price discovery related to news stories occurs through institutional trading prior to the news announcement date.
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Market-wide attention, trading, and stock returns
Yu Yuan
Journal of Financial Economics, June 2015, Pages 548-564
Abstract:
Market-wide attention-grabbing events - record levels for the Dow and front-page articles about the stock market - predict the trading behavior of investors and, in turn, market returns. Both aggregate and household-level data reveal that high market-wide attention events lead investors to sell their stock holdings dramatically when the level of the stock market is high. Such aggressive selling has a negative impact on market prices, reducing market returns by 19 basis points on days following attention-grabbing events.
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Seasonal Variation in Treasury Returns
Mark Kamstra, Lisa Kramer & Maurice Levi
Critical Finance Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
We document a novel and striking annual cycle in the U.S. Treasury market, with a variation in mean monthly returns of over 80 basis points from peak to trough. We show that this seasonal Treasury return pattern does not arise due to macroeconomic seasonalities, seasonal variation in risk, crosshedging between equity and Treasury markets, conventional measures of investor sentiment, the weather, seasonalities in the Treasury market auction schedule, seasonalities in the Treasury debt supply, seasonalities in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cycle, or peculiarities of the sample period considered. Rather, the seasonal pattern in Treasury returns is significantly correlated with a proxy for variation in investor risk aversion linked to mood changes across the seasons, and a model based on that proxy is able to explain more than sixty percent of the average seasonal variation in monthly Treasury returns. The White (White, 2000) reality test confirms that the correlation between returns and the proxy for seasonal variation in investor risk aversion cannot be easily dismissed as the simple result of data snooping.
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Mobile Communication and Local Information Flow: Evidence from Distracted Driving Laws
Nerissa Brown, Han Stice & Roger White
Journal of Accounting Research, May 2015, Pages 275-329
Abstract:
We examine the influence of mobile communication on local information flow and local investor activity using the enforcement of statewide distracted driving restrictions, which are exogenous events that constrain mobile communication while driving. By restricting mobile communication across a potentially sizable set of local individuals, these restrictions could inhibit local information flow and, in turn, the market activity of stocks headquartered in enforcement states. We first document a decline in Google search activity for local stocks when restrictions take effect, suggesting that constraints on mobile communication significantly affect individuals' information search activity. We further find significant declines in local trading volume when restrictions are enforced. This drop in liquidity is (1) attenuated when laws provide substitutive means of mobile communication and (2) magnified when locals have long car commutes and when their daily commutes overlap with regular exchange hours. Moreover, trading volume suffers the most for local stocks with lower institutional ownership, less analyst coverage, and more intangible information. Additional analyses show lower intraday volume during local commute times when mobile connectivity is constrained. Together, our results suggest that local information and local investors matter in stock markets and that mobile communication is an important mechanism through which these elements operate to affect liquidity and price discovery.
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Social Trust and Differential Reactions of Local and Foreign Investors to Public News
Chunxin Jia, Yaping Wang & Wei Xiong
NBER Working Paper, April 2015
Abstract:
This paper uses the segmented dual-class shares issued by several dozen Chinese firms -- A shares to local Chinese investors and H shares to foreign investors -- to compare reactions of local and foreign investors to the same public news. We find that local investors react more strongly to earnings forecasts by local analysts, while foreign investors react more strongly to forecasts of foreign analysts. This finding highlights social trust as a force driving people with different social backgrounds to react differently to the same information.
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Rational speculative bubbles in the US stock market and political cycles
Miao Wang & Sunny Wong
Finance Research Letters, May 2015, Pages 1-9
Abstract:
This paper tests the existence of rational speculative bubbles during Democratic and Republican presidential terms, which has not been systematically researched in existing studies. With monthly real returns on equally-weighted and value-weighted portfolios in the U.S. from January 1927 to December 2012, we find that there are rational speculative bubbles under Republican Presidents but not under Democratic Presidents. Our results are robust to different specifications.
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Craig Doidge, Andrew Karolyi & René Stulz
NBER Working Paper, May 2015
Abstract:
The U.S. had 14% fewer exchange-listed firms in 2012 than in 1975. Relative to other countries, the U.S. now has abnormally few listed firms given its level of development and the quality of its institutions. We call this the "U.S. listing gap" and investigate possible explanations for it. We rule out industry changes, changes in listing requirements, and the reforms of the early 2000s as explanations for the gap. We show that the probability that a firm is listed has fallen since the listing peak in 1996 for all firm size categories though more so for smaller firms. From 1997 to the end of our sample period in 2012, the new list rate is low and the delist rate is high compared to U.S. history and to other countries. High delists account for roughly 46% of the listing gap and low new lists for 54%. The high delist rate is explained by an unusually high rate of acquisitions of publicly-listed firms compared to previous U.S. history and to other countries.
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Hidden Liquidity: Some New Light on Dark Trading
Robert Bloomfield, Maureen O'Hara & Gideon Saar
Journal of Finance, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using a laboratory market, we investigate how the ability to hide orders affects traders' strategies and market outcomes in a limit order book environment. We find that order strategies are greatly affected by allowing hidden liquidity, with traders substituting nondisplayed for displayed shares and changing the aggressiveness of their trading. As traders adapt their behavior to the different opacity regimes, however, most aggregate market outcomes (such as liquidity and informational efficiency) are not affected as much. We also find that opacity appears to increase the profits of informed traders but only when their private information is very valuable.
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Yankee Doodle went to London: Anglo-American breweries and the London securities market, 1888-92
Mary O'Sullivan
Economic History Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
The enthusiasm of British portfolio investors for US industry in the late 1880s has been seen as evidence of the liberalism of the London Stock Exchange and the conservatism of the New York Stock Exchange. Based on a study of Anglo-American brewing issues on the London market between 1888 and 1892, in this article it is argued that such an interpretation cannot be sustained. For these issues, securing access to the London market proved more demanding than accounts of its liberalism would lead us to expect: in fact, Anglo-American brewing companies submitted to strictures from London that were more constraining than those of the New York market. Promoters accepted London's constraints to take advantage of the high valuations assigned to Anglo-American brewing securities there, which reflected the city's success in building demand based on financial machinery that did not exist in New York. That machinery included underwriting syndicates, accounting standards, and the London Stock Exchange's listing rules, although, from this perspective, it was the rigour of the exchange's rules that was important. Still, vetting securities for quotation was not the same as for investment, as the disappointing performance of the Anglo-American brewing securities soon revealed.
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Bruno Biais, Thierry Foucault & Sophie Moinas
Journal of Financial Economics, May 2015, Pages 292-313
Abstract:
High speed market connections improve investors' ability to search for attractive quotes in fragmented markets, raising gains from trade. They also enable fast traders to obtain information before slow traders, generating adverse selection, and thus negative externalities. When investing in fast trading technologies, institutions do not internalize these externalities. Accordingly, they overinvest in equilibrium. Completely banning fast trading is dominated by offering two types of markets: one accepting fast traders, the other banning them. Utilitarian welfare is maximized with (i) a single market type on which fast and slow traders coexist and (ii) Pigovian taxes on investment in the fast trading technology.
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Picking Winners? Investment Consultants' Recommendations of Fund Managers
Tim Jenkinson, Howard Jones & Jose Vicente Martinez
Journal of Finance, forthcoming
Abstract:
Investment consultants advise institutional investors on their choice of fund manager. Focusing on U.S. actively managed equity funds, we analyze the factors that drive consultants' recommendations, what impact these recommendations have on flows, and how well the recommended funds perform. We find that investment consultants' recommendations of funds are driven largely by soft factors, rather than the funds' past performance, and that their recommendations have a significant effect on fund flows. However, we find no evidence that these recommendations add value, suggesting that the search for winners, encouraged and guided by investment consultants, is fruitless.
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Tax-Efficient Asset Management: Evidence from Equity Mutual Funds
Clemens Sialm & Hanjiang Zhang
NBER Working Paper, April 2015
Abstract:
Investment taxes have a substantial impact on the performance of taxable mutual fund investors. Mutual funds can reduce the tax burdens of their shareholders by avoiding securities that are heavily taxed and by avoiding realizing capital gains that trigger higher tax burdens to the funds' investors. Such tax avoidance strategies constrain the investment opportunities of the mutual funds and might reduce their before-tax performance. Our paper empirically investigates the costs and benefits of tax-efficient asset management based on U.S. equity mutual funds. We find that mutual funds that follow tax-efficient asset management strategies generate superior after-tax returns. Surprisingly, more tax-efficient mutual funds do not underperform other funds before taxes, indicating that the constraints imposed by tax-efficient asset management do not have significant performance consequences.
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Spillover Effects in Mutual Fund Companies
Clemens Sialm & Mandy Tham
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Our paper investigates spillover effects across different business segments of publicly traded financial conglomerates. We find that the investment decisions of mutual fund shareholders do not depend only on the prior performance of the mutual funds; they also depend on the prior performance of the funds' management companies. Flows into equity and bond mutual funds increase with the prior stock price performance of the funds' management companies after controlling for fund performance and other fund characteristics. The sensitivity of flows to the management company's performance is not justified by the subsequent performance of the affiliated funds. The results indicate that the reputation of a company's brand has a significant impact on the behavior of its customers.
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Thierry Foucault, Johan Hombert & Ioanid Roşu
Journal of Finance, forthcoming
Abstract:
We compare the optimal trading strategy of an informed speculator when he can trade ahead of incoming news (is "fast"), versus when he cannot (is "slow"). We find that speed matters: the fast speculator's trades account for a larger fraction of trading volume, and are more correlated with short-run price changes. Nevertheless, he realizes a large fraction of his profits from trading on long-term price changes. The fast speculator's behavior matches evidence about high frequency traders. We predict that stocks with more informative news are more liquid even though they attract more activity from informed high frequency traders.
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David Becher, Jonathan Cohn & Jennifer Juergens
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper investigates the effects of analyst recommendations issued after a merger announcement on deal completion. We find the probability of completion increases (decreases) with the favorability of acquirer (target) recommendations. Results from instrumental variables tests support causality running from recommendations to merger outcomes. Additional tests suggest that these relations are driven by target shareholders reassessing the merger offer in response to movements in acquirer and target valuations. We also find that favorably recommended firms in a proposed merger underperform following deal resolution, suggesting that investors overreact to postmerger announcement recommendations.
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Hoard Behavior and Commodity Bubbles
Harrison Hong, Áureo de Paula & Vishal Singh
NBER Working Paper, February 2015
Abstract:
Hoarding by large speculators is often blamed for contributing to commodity market panics and bubbles. Using supermarket scanner data on US household purchases during the 2008 Rice Bubble, we show that hoarding is in fact more systemic, affecting even households who have no resale motive. Export bans led to a spike in prices worldwide in the first half of 2008, which spilled over into US markets. Anticipating shortages, US households with previous purchases of rice, especially those of Asian ethnicity, nearly doubled their buying around the peak of the bubble. We document transmission mechanisms through over-extrapolation from high prices and contagion, as many households bought rice for the first and last time during the bubble.