On the ballot
Estimating Habit Formation in Voting
Thomas Fujiwara, Kyle Meng & Tom Vogl
NBER Working Paper, December 2013
Abstract:
We estimate habit formation in voting - the effect of past on current turnout - by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on U.S. presidential elections from 1952-2012, we find that precipitation on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.7-0.9 points. Consistent with a dynamic extension of the Downsian framework, current precipitation has stronger effects following previous rainy elections. Further analyses suggest that this habit formation operates by reinforcing the intrinsic satisfaction associated with voting.
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Reconsidering the "Palin Effect" in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election
Edward Burmila & Josh Ryan
Political Research Quarterly, December 2013, Pages 952-959
Abstract:
"The 'Palin Effect' in the U.S. 2008 Presidential Election" analyzes the effect of Sarah Palin on presidential vote choice. Two of the substantive conclusions are (1) Palin cost McCain votes among independents and moderates, and (2) Palin had the largest effect on vote choice of any recent vice-presidential nominee. Our analysis shows that the data do not support these findings. We find that respondent evaluations of Palin have a positive effect on McCain vote choice, even among independents and moderates, and Palin's effect on the election outcome is comparable with ten of the last fifteen vice-presidential nominees.
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Gendered Campaign Strategies in U.S. Elections
Jason Harold Windett
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
This research examines the impact of gender on gubernatorial and senate candidates' issue prioritization. I argue that women running for statewide office prefer to play against gender stereotypes in their issue priorities at the outset of their campaigns, so they do not appear as a strictly "female" candidate. Instead, women will only run a "gendered campaign" in response to male candidates doing so first. I put forth a dynamic theory of gendered interaction that asserts that male candidates facing female opponents will attempt to force women to campaign on stereotypical "feminine issues." The campaign interaction between male and female candidates for office puts women in a precarious situation in which they must decide whether to respond to their male opponent or continue their "masculine" campaign strategy. I demonstrate that the gender of candidates directly influences the types of issues and strategies that each candidate pursues on the campaign trail.
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Sharon Jarvis & Soo-Hye Han
American Behavioral Scientist, December 2013, Pages 1650-1662
Abstract:
This article analyzes how Barack Obama and Mitt Romney discussed electoral participation in campaign 2012 and compares their statements to those made by presidential nominees over the past 16 elections. Findings show that, overall, presidential candidates have depicted voting as a choice (not a right, duty, or value) and as harmful and divisive (as opposed to helpful or honorable). The data also reveal significant differences over the years, as candidates in the 1950s and 1960s were more likely to talk about voting as a value than transpires today and as candidates prior to the 1980s largely refrained from describing voting as a negative act. The article concludes by addressing how the campaign process has sharpened and politicized discussions of electoral participation over the years and what these shifts might mean for the contemporary campaign context.
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Broadband Internet and Political Behavior: Evidence from the United States
Ahmed Jaber
Cornell Working Paper, November 2013
Abstract:
This paper examines the effect of the introduction of broadband Internet on voting and campaign donations in the 2000s. To identify the effect of broadband, I use an instrumental variable strategy based on geographic terrain attributes which affected the cost of building cable infrastructure. I find that broadband has led to a large increase in voter turnout in presidential elections, as well as an increase in the total amount donated to political campaigns. Consistent with the hypothesis that Democrats have a stronger online presence, I also find a large effect on Democratic vote share in presidential elections. Evidence suggests the existence of both direct and indirect channels for the broadband effect. In particular, I find that broadband availability is associated with greater political knowledge, an increase in online (but not offline) donations, and the promotion of liberal values.
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John Ahlquist, Kenneth Mayer & Simon Jackman
University of Wisconsin Working Paper, October 2013
Abstract:
State legislatures around the United States have entertained - and passed - laws requiring voters to present various forms of state-issued identification in order to cast ballots. Proponents argue that such laws protect the integrity of the electoral process, sometimes claiming that fraudulent voting is widespread. We report the results of a survey list experiment fielded immediately after the 2012 US general election designed to measure the prevalence of one specific type of voter fraud most relevant to voter ID laws: voter impersonation. We find no evidence of voter impersonation, even in the states most contested in the Presidential campaign. We also find that states with strict voter ID laws and states with same-day voter registration are no different from others in the (non) existence of voter impersonation. To address possible "lower bound" problems with our conclusions we run both parallel and subsequent experiments to calibrate our findings. These ancillary list experiments indicate that the lower bound on the population reporting voter impersonation is nearly identical with the proportion of the population reporting abduction by extraterrestrials. Based on this evidence, strict voter ID requirements address a problem that did not exist in the 2012 US election. Effort designed to improve American election infrastructure and security would be better directed toward other initiatives.
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Christopher Mann & Casey Klofstad
Political Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
We demonstrate the centrality of high quality personal interactions for successfully overcoming the collective action problem of voter mobilization, and highlight the need for attention to treatment quality before making substantive inferences from field experiments. We exploit natural variation in the quality of voter mobilization phone calls across call centers to examine how call quality affects voter mobilization in a large-scale field experiment conducted during the 2010 Election. High quality calls (from call centers specializing in calling related to politics) produced significant increases in turnout. In contrast, low quality calls (from multi-purpose commercial call centers) failed to increase turnout. Furthermore, we offer caution about using higher contact rates as an indication of delivery quality. Our treatment conditions with higher contact rates had no impact on turnout, suggesting an unfavorable trade-off between quantity of contacts and call quality.
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The Resurgent American Voter, 1996-2012
Michael Martinez
University of Florida Working Paper, December 2013
Abstract:
Sparked both by normative concerns and a classic empirical puzzle, scholars developed and tested a variety of explanations for the turnout decline in the US between 1960 and 1988. More than a decade of research eventually showed that the sources of the decline in turnout were multifaceted: it stemmed in various degrees from declines in partisanship, political efficacy and newspaper reading, mobilization, and changes in the age distribution in the electorate with lower rates of participation in younger cohorts. Turnout slid to 52.8% of the voting eligible population in 1992, surged briefly in 1992 to 58.1%, then bottomed out at 51.7% in 1996. Since then, turnout increased in three consecutive presidential elections, reaching an estimated 61.4% in 2008, but dropped back to 58.2% in 2012. Using pooled cross-sectional data from the American National Election Studies, I find that demographic and electoral reform variables account for little of the increase in turnout since 1996, while perceptions of partisan differences and renewed importance of voter mobilization do account for substantial portions of the increase.
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Forecasting Elections with Non-Representative Polls
Wei Wang et al.
Columbia University Working Paper, September 2013
Abstract:
Election forecasts have traditionally been based on representative polls, in which randomly sampled individuals are asked for whom they intend to vote. While representative polling has historically proven to be quite effective, it comes at considerable financial and time costs. Moreover, as response rates have declined over the past several decades, the statistical benefits of representative sampling have diminished. In this paper, we show that with proper statistical adjustment, non-representative polls can be used to generate accurate election forecasts, and often faster and at less expense than traditional survey methods. We demonstrate this approach by creating forecasts from a novel and highly non-representative survey dataset: a series of daily voter intention polls for the 2012 presidential election conducted on the Xbox gaming platform. After adjusting the Xbox responses via multilevel regression and poststratification, we obtain estimates in line with forecasts from leading poll analysts, which were based on aggregating hundreds of traditional polls conducted during the election cycle. We conclude by arguing that non-representative polling shows promise not only for election forecasting, but also for measuring public opinion on a broad range of social, economic and cultural issues.
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Kyle Mattes & Caitlin Milazzo
Electoral Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
The conventional wisdom on Western European politics leads us to believe that all the "action" lies with parties, because the unified parliamentary delegations in Western Europe draw voters' attention to parties' policies and images. Though British elections take place under a single member district plurality system, British parties, like their continental counterparts, are highly centralised and feature disciplined parliamentary delegations. Despite the strong ties between British candidates and their parties, we demonstrate that perceptions of candidates' personal attributes can be used to predict general election outcomes. Using a computer-based survey where subjects are asked to evaluate real British candidates using only rapidly determined first impressions of facial images, we successfully predict outcomes from the 2010 general election. Moreover, we find that perceptions of candidates' relative attractiveness are particularly useful for predicting outcomes in marginal constituencies.
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The neuroeconomics of voting: Neural evidence of different sources of utility in voting
Ivo Bischoff et al.
Journal of Neuroscience, Psychology, and Economics, December 2013, Pages 215-235
Abstract:
Which motives drive the decision of a voter to approve or reject a policy proposal? The Public Choice literature distinguishes between instrumental and expressive voting motives. We investigated the importance of these motives by analyzing the patterns of neural activity in different voting situations. We conducted a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment that investigates neural activation at the moment of voting and used the altruism scale proposed by Tankersley, Stowe, and Huettell (2007) to differentiate between altruists and nonaltruists. Nonaltruists showed neural activation patterns that were consistent with expressive voting motives. Among nonaltruists, we also observed activation patterns that point at egoistic instrumental motives. Both results are in line with the corresponding Public Choice literature. On the other hand, we found no evidence for expressive voting motives among altruists. Their neural activation pattern was generally much less conclusive with respect to the underlying motives.
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Strategic Voting in a U.S. Senate Election
Seth McKee & M.V. Hood
Political Behavior, December 2013, Pages 729-751
Abstract:
Due to the strength of its two-party system, the opportunity for voters to strategically defect in favor of third party or independent candidates is rare in high profile American elections. Indeed, it has been almost a century since a third party candidate finished better than one of the major party presidential nominees - in 1912 Bull Moose Progressive Teddy Roosevelt finished ahead of Republican William H. Taft. In this study we examine strategic voting in a U.S. Senate election where the independent candidate also finished above one of the major party nominees. In the 2010 Florida Senate contest the sitting Governor Charlie Crist shed his Republican label in order to compete in the general election since he was certain to lose in the GOP primary to Marco Rubio, the eventual winner. Crist finished second by taking a substantial share of votes away from the third place candidate, Democrat Kendrick Meek. Because this type of contest seldom occurs, in American politics there is scant empirical research on strategic voting under these conditions. We employ an unobtrusive survey of a large sample of registered Floridians in order to assess the likelihood of strategic voting among respondents who preferred the Democrat Kendrick Meek. For voters who sincerely preferred the Democrat, a significant portion defected in favor of the Independent Charlie Crist if they expected him to finish ahead of Meek. Additionally, we find that after a major news story broke, in which former President Bill Clinton allegedly advised Meek to drop out of the race so that Crist might win, respondents surveyed after this event were more likely to vote strategically in favor of Crist. Our study clearly demonstrates the importance of political context. Under the appropriate conditions, we find a high likelihood of strategic voting.
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Do Voting Rights Notification Laws Increase Ex-Felon Turnout?
Marc Meredith & Michael Morse
ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, January 2014, Pages 220-249
Abstract:
Previous research documents widespread confusion about who can and cannot vote among people who have come into contact with the criminal justice system. This research, and considerable activism drawing attention to the issue, has spurred a number of state legislatures to pass laws requiring the states to notify ex-felons about their voting rights. The purpose of this article is to better understand the policy processes that produce these notification laws and to assess whether the laws affect ex-felons' registration and turnout rates. Data on discharges from the correctional system and voter files are merged from three states that have recently passed notification laws: New Mexico, New York, and North Carolina. Our findings show little evidence of an increase in ex-felon registration or turnout after notification laws are implemented.
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The Elements of Political Persuasion: Content, Charisma, and Cue
Torun Dewan, Macartan Humphreys & Daniel Rubenson
Economic Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
Political campaigns employ multiple strategies to persuade voters to support them. We analyse the effects of the components of these strategies using data from a field experiment that randomly assigned canvassers to districts, as well as messaging and endorsement conditions. We find evidence for a strong overall campaign effect and show effects for both message-based and endorsement-based campaigns. However, we find little evidence that canvassers varied according to their persuasive ability or that endorser identity matters. Overall the results suggest a surprisingly muted role for idiosyncratic features of prospective persuaders.
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Madam Senator: Growth in Women's State Senate Representation, 1978-2010
Matthew Painter
Sociological Spectrum, November/December 2013, Pages 584-603
Abstract:
Using a dataset of women state senators from all 50 states (1978-2010) and latent growth curve analysis, this article tests two longitudinal theories of the growth of women's political representation over time. Gender salience theory posits that women increase their political representation when they explicitly campaign on their gender. Political climate theory argues that women fare better electorally during periods when domestic issues predominate as opposed to international issues. Results provide support for gender salience theory, but the evidence is too mixed for political climate theory to provide a plausible explanation for the growth in women's state-level political representation. By political party, results suggest that Democratic women were generally advantaged over Republican women; however, Republican women exclusively benefited in the 1992 and 2010 elections. This article concludes with an assessment of the two longitudinal theories and what they may tell us more broadly about women in politics.
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Does Sex Encourage Commitment? The Impact of Candidate Choices on the Time-to-Decision
Sarah Fulton & Heather Ondercin
Political Behavior, December 2013, Pages 665-686
Abstract:
The sex of a congressional candidate can influence voting choices, but does candidate sex also influence the timing of those choices? This paper examines that question in light of other information that voters weigh in making their decisions. Using a national survey from the 2006 election, and a unique dataset of political informants, we find that the sex of the candidate conveys ideological information that permits voters to make swifter judgments. Additionally, it reduces the probability of a delayed decision by supplying information helpful to the choice between candidates - even in the absence of ideology. In fact, the impact of candidate sex rivals other variables that are traditionally used to explain the time-to-decision. Consistent with the literature on sex stereotypes, we find a stronger influence for Democratic than Republican female candidates.
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Funny, Ha-Ha: The Impact of User-Generated Political Satire on Political Attitudes
Leslie Rill & Christopher Cardiel
American Behavioral Scientist, December 2013, Pages 1738-1756
Abstract:
The 2012 election season provided increased opportunities for the collaboration among citizens, new media, and democracy. The "social media election" saw a rise in online user-generated political content posted to YouTube. These videos, often satirical in nature, were viewed by millions, making the potential impacts from this new form of political communication deserving of inquiry. Using experimental design, this study explored the relationship between user-generated political satire and "normative" political attitudes. The results revealed that viewing satirical representations of political candidates did not affect individuals' level of political cynicism or political information efficacy; however, perceptions of candidate credibility and favorability were altered.
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Compulsory versus voluntary voting: An experimental study
Sourav Bhattacharya, John Duffy & Sun-Tak Kim
Games and Economic Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
We report on an experiment comparing compulsory and voluntary voting institutions in a voting game with common preferences. Rational choice theory predicts sharp differences in voter behavior between these two institutions. If voting is compulsory, then voters may find it rational to vote insincerely, i.e., against their private information. If voting is voluntary so that abstention is allowed, then sincere voting in accordance with a voter?s private information is always rational while participation may become strategic. We find strong support for these theoretical predictions in our experimental data. Moreover, voters adapt their decisions to the voting institution in place in such a way as to make the group decision accuracy differences between the two voting institutions negligible. The latter finding may serve to rationalize the co-existence of compulsory and voluntary voting institutions in nature.
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The Looks of a Leader: Competent and Trustworthy, but Not Dominant
Fang Fang Chen, Yiming Jing & Jeong Min Lee
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, March 2014, Pages 27-33
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is twofold: to uncover the conditions under which trustworthiness influences social judgment and to examine the possible double edged sword nature of social dominance in deciding social outcomes. In three studies, participants evaluated the personality traits of political candidates based on inferences from their faces. Perceptions of these traits were then used to predict actual election results and the subjective voting support of the participants. Trustworthiness increased the chances of winning actual elections, but only for those who were judged as competent. The expected double-edged sword effect of dominance was found: on the one hand, dominance predicted winning of actual elections indirectly via competence; on the other hand, dominance predicted losing elections directly once its positive connection with competence was controlled. A different picture emerged with respect to the subjective voting support of the participants: all traits predicted the likelihood of winning.
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The Minnesota Multi-Investigator 2012 Presidential Election Panel Study
Philip Chen et al.
Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
In an analysis of the 2012 presidential election, we sought to optimize two key desiderata in capturing campaign effects: establishing causality and measuring dynamic (i.e., intraindividual) change over time. We first report the results of three survey-experiments embedded within a three-wave survey panel design. Each experiment was focused on a substantive area of electoral concern. Our results suggest, among other findings, that retrospective evaluations exerted a stronger influence on vote choice in the referendum (vs. the choice) frame; that among White respondents, racial animosity strongly predicted economic evaluations for knowledgeable Republicans who were led to believe that positive economic developments were the result of actions taken by the Obama administration; and that information-seeking bias is a contingent phenomenon, one depending jointly on the opportunity and motivation to selectively tune in to congenial information. Lastly, we demonstrate how the panel design also allowed us to (1) examine the reliability and stability of a variety of election-related implicit attitudes, and to assess their impact on candidate evaluation; and (2) determine the causal impact of perceptions of candidates' traits and respondents' policy preferences on electoral preferences, and vice versa, an area of research long plagued by concerns about endogeneity.
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Political knowledge reduces hindsight memory distortion in election judgements
Dustin Calvillo & Abraham Rutchick
Journal of Cognitive Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Hindsight bias occurs when outcome information biases judgements. Previous studies have demonstrated hindsight bias in judgements of election outcomes, but few studies have examined the role of domain knowledge in hindsight bias. The present study examined the relationship between political knowledge and hindsight bias using both memory and hypothetical designs. Participants answered political knowledge questions and some made predictions before the 2012 US Presidential Election. After the election, participants were provided with the outcomes. Those who made predictions were asked to recall them, whereas those who did not make predictions were asked what they would have predicted. Both groups demonstrated hindsight bias: their recalled or hypothetical predictions were closer to the election results than participants' actual predictions. Political knowledge was negatively correlated with hindsight bias in recalled predictions but not significantly correlated with hindsight bias in hypothetical predictions. These findings help elucidate the role of domain knowledge in hindsight bias.