Off the streets
Juvenile Incarceration, Human Capital and Future Crime: Evidence from Randomly-Assigned Judges
Anna Aizer & Joseph Doyle
NBER Working Paper, June 2013
Abstract:
Over 130,000 juveniles are detained in the US each year with 70,000 in detention on any given day, yet little is known whether such a penalty deters future crime or interrupts social and human capital formation in a way that increases the likelihood of later criminal behavior. This paper uses the incarceration tendency of randomly-assigned judges as an instrumental variable to estimate causal effects of juvenile incarceration on high school completion and adult recidivism. Estimates based on over 35,000 juvenile offenders over a ten-year period from a large urban county in the US suggest that juvenile incarceration results in large decreases in the likelihood of high school completion and large increases in the likelihood of adult incarceration. These results are in stark contrast to the small effects typically found for adult incarceration, but consistent with larger impacts of policies aimed at adolescents.
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The Efficiency of Frisks in the NYPD, 2004-2010
Joseph Ferrandino
Criminal Justice Review, June 2013, Pages 149-168
Abstract:
New York Police Department (NYPD) stop and frisk policy has come under increasing scrutiny in recent years and has been analyzed exclusively in terms of its equity and effectiveness. This study adds a third approach of policy outcome analysis - technical efficiency - by employing a pooled data envelopment analysis of all Stop, Question, and Frisk data from all NYPD precincts from 2004 through 2010 (3,410,300 total stops resulting in 1,721,955 total frisks). The results reveal that the NYPD is input inefficient in many precincts (mean IOTA score = .40) but slightly more output efficient (mean IOTA score = .50). The most efficient precincts and boroughs are also identified to set performance benchmarks for frisks within the NYPD. According to the input-oriented results (the equity side), there should have been 1,091,846 fewer frisks given the outputs produced (arrests, guns, and contraband), and the output-oriented results (effectiveness side) suggest the NYPD should have produced 179,056 more arrests, found 6,306 more pistols and found 59,883 more instances of contraband to be technically efficient, given the level frisks throughout the NYPD. Though a certain amount of inefficiency is enshrined in the frisk decision, these results are placed in the context of police actions and outcomes in the NYPD over this time period, and are used to inform both sides of the current debate. This research is unique to the police efficiency literature and sets the foundation for future research that fully models efficiency antecedents as well as the outcomes that result from inefficient frisks.
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Hollianne Marshall
Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, May 2013, Pages 276-295
Abstract:
Several qualitative studies, conducted in Chicago, provide the framework for the argument that, despite the massive illicit dealings of the Italian American organized crime, the residential neighborhoods in which they live and work remain relatively free of violent crime, more so than other similar urban neighborhoods. This study quantitatively examines the characteristics of the "defended neighborhood," and how they are uniquely applied to Chicago neighborhoods. Focusing on neighborhood reputation, this research considers the influence of public reputation as informal social control over violent street crime. The results indicate that neighborhoods with an Italian American concentration have significantly lower rates of robbery compared with the rest of the city of Chicago.
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Steven Raphael & Michael Stoll
Journal of Legal Studies, January 2013, Pages 187-222
Abstract:
We assess the degree to which the mentally ill who would have been in mental hospitals in years past have been transinstitutionalized to prisons and jails. We also assess the contribution of deinstitutionalization to growth in the U.S. prison population. We find no evidence of transinstitutionalization for any demographic groups for the period 1950-80. However, for the 20-year period 1980-2000, we find significant transinstitutionalization rates for all men and women, with a relatively large transinstitutionalization rate for men in comparison to women and the largest transinstitutionalization rate observed for white men. Our estimates suggest that 4-7 percent of incarceration growth between 1980 and 2000 is attributable to deinstitutionalization. While this is a relatively small contribution to prison growth overall, the results suggest that a sizable portion of the mentally ill behind bars would not have been incarcerated in years past.
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Jennie Singer, Mary Maguire & Gregory Hurtz
Victims & Offenders, Summer 2013, Pages 253-277
Abstract:
How much of a risk factor is mental illness for sexual reoffending? This study examined a group of sex offenders on parole in the state of California from 2001 to 2008 who were reincarcerated for a sexual crime versus a group of sex offenders on parole from 2001 to 2005 who did not return to prison for any crime or violation. The most recent mental health status was coded from 320 correctional files. Sex offenders who recidivated sexually were much more likely to be mentally ill than sex offenders who did not recidivate while on parole, even when controlling for race, residence/social support, and employment. The implications of this finding are examined and potential policies are considered.
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Symptoms and treatment of mental illness among prisoners: A study of Michigan state prisons
Brant Fries et al.
International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, May-August 2013, Pages 316-325
Abstract:
This study reports on a representative sample of prisoners in Michigan correctional facilities to determine the prevalence of psychiatric illness and the delivery of mental health (MH) services. Mental health assessments were conducted with 618 incarcerated subjects using the interRAI Correctional Facilities (interRAI CF). Subjects were randomly sampled based on four strata: males in the general population, males in administrative segregation, males in special units, and females. The interRAI CF assessments were merged with secondary data provided by the Michigan Department of Corrections (MDOC) containing information on MH diagnoses or services that the subjects were receiving within the facilities, demographics, and sentencing. Study results show that 20.1% of men and 24.8% of women in Michigan prisons have a substantial level of MH symptoms and that 16.5% and 28.9%, respectively, are receiving MH services. However, when compared with Michigan Department of Corrections MH care records, 65.0% of prisoners who are experiencing symptoms of mental illness are not currently receiving any psychiatric services. The mis-match between symptoms and service delivery suggests the need for improved procedures for identifying and measuring psychiatric symptoms within Michigan correctional facilities to ensure that appropriate individuals receive needed care. It is recommended that a standardized assessment process be implemented and conducted at regular intervals for targeting and improving psychiatric care in the prison system.
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Gangland Killings in Chicago, 1919-1933
John Binder & Mars Eghigian
Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, May 2013, Pages 219-232
Abstract:
According to the Chicago Crime Commission (CCC), 729 people were slain gangland style in Cook County, Illinois during the Prohibition Era from 1919 to 1933. Using the CCC records, Chicago Police Department (CPD) homicide records (2012), and newspaper accounts, this study analyzed a variety of data about these killings, including the types of killings as well as the major reasons for the killings, such as bootlegging, gambling, labor racketeering, vice, or other criminal disputes. Many of the study's results contradicted conventional wisdom. For example, 43% of the killings were unrelated to organized crime. Also, only 40% of the killings were tied to bootlegging, and the victim belonged to one of the major bootlegging gangs in the area in only 40% of those cases. Therefore, while various members of Chicago's Prohibition Era gangs were killed, those casualties are much smaller than expected.
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Crime across the States: Are US Crime Rates Converging?
Steve Cook et al.
Urban Studies, July 2013, Pages 1724-1741
Abstract:
Recent research concerning the potential presence of a national trend in regionally disaggregated US crime data is extended. In light of the varying levels of criminal activity noted in differing regions of the US, the present analysis considers whether a trend is emerging rather than currently present. Using alternative methods, potential convergence in criminal activity across the states of the US is examined. The results presented provide clear evidence of a previously undetected finding of convergence over the period 1960-2009 for all classifications of criminal activity considered. The importance and implications of these findings, along with their support in previous research on, inter alia, socioeconomic conditions, sentencing policies and alternative theories, are discussed.
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Examining the Generality of the Unemployment-Crime Association
Mikko Aaltonen et al.
Criminology, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article examines whether the relationship between unemployment and criminal offending depends on the type of crime analyzed. We rely on fixed-effects regression models to assess the association between changes in unemployment status and changes in violent crime, property crime, and driving under the influence (DUI) over a 6-year period. We also examine whether the type of unemployment benefit received moderates the link to criminal behavior. We find significantly positive effects of unemployment on property crime but not on other types of crime. Our estimates also suggest that unemployed young males commit less crime while participating in active labor market programs when compared with periods during which they receive standard unemployment benefits.
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Evading Justice: Quantifying Criminal Success in Incarcerated Psychopathic Offenders
Eyal Aharoni & Kent Kiehl
Criminal Justice and Behavior, June 2013, Pages 629-645
Abstract:
The "successful psychopath" is thought to evade scientific study because most forensic psychopathy research is limited to incarcerated - putatively unsuccessful - samples. By redefining criminal success as the proportion of past undetected crimes, the present study tested the hypothesis that psychopathic traits are associated with criminal success within an incarcerated sample (N = 307). Psychopathy was assessed using the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised. Criminal history was assessed retrospectively for 24 violent and nonviolent crimes via self-report using a confidential semistructured interview. Controlling for social desirability score, greatest criminal success was associated with moderate to high psychopathy scores, particularly for violent crimes. At the trait level, antisocial lifestyle and behavioral psychopathic traits predicted increased criminal success, whereas affective psychopathic traits predicted decreased criminal success. These results suggest that criminal success can be meaningfully evaluated using an incarcerated sample and can inform models of psychopathy.
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They Can't Shoot Everyone: Italians, Social Capital, and Organized Crime in the Chicago Outfit
Louis Corsino
Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, May 2013, Pages 256-275
Abstract:
Force and intimidation have always played a significant role in the success of the Chicago Outfit. Yet, violence is a highly inefficient mechanism for running illegal operations. A far more stable resource is social capital. This study examines these social capital processes by focusing upon the Chicago Heights "boys," a critical component of the Chicago Outfit since the 1920s. Drawing upon interviews, newspaper accounts, census materials, and FBI files, I attempt to demonstrate that for the greater part of the 20th century, Italians in Chicago Heights experienced an abiding social, economic, and political discrimination. This resulted in a social and geographic isolation in Chicago Heights. This isolation inhibited the mobility of Italians along traditional routes but created a store of social capital which Italians used to organize labor unions, mutual aid societies, ethnic enterprises - and an organized crime empire. Specifically, leaders in the Chicago Heights Outfit acquired a social capital advantage because they could draw upon the closed networks in the Italian community and, at the same time, envision a range of illegal opportunities because they occupied a series of "structural holes."
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Criminal and Routine Activities in Online Settings: Gangs, Offenders, and the Internet
David Pyrooz, Scott Decker & Richard Moule
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Crime and deviance reflect the dynamic nature of social life. The Internet has changed opportunities for crime and deviance, much as it has changed other aspects of social life. Accompanying the movement of offending and victimization to the Internet has been the expansion of deviant groups - including gangs - into online settings. Drawing from web-facilitated and web-enhanced classifications of online deviant behavior and identity, we extend the study of offending, gangs, and gang membership to online settings. Using data gathered in five cities from 585 respondents, including 418 current and former gang members, we study general online routine activities, online criminal and deviant behaviors, and gang-related online behaviors and processes. Based on our results, we arrive at three main conclusions: (1) gang members use the Internet and social networking sites as much, if not more, than their nongang counterparts, (2) gang members have a greater overall propensity for online crime and deviance than former and nongang respondents, based on our multivariate multi-level item response theory models, (3) the Internet is rarely used to further the instrumental goals of gangs, instead appealing to the symbolic needs of gangs and gang members. We conclude by discussing the conceptual and policy implications of these findings in relation to online activities of offenders and deviant groups.
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Shawn Bushway, Gregory DeAngelo & Benjamin Hansen
International Review of Law and Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
The most effective use of law enforcement resources for reducing crime has generated significant attention across law enforcement agencies, federal, state, and local decision-making committees as well as many academic disciplines. One of the more spirited discussions revolves around law enforcement agents targeting criminal activity based on a suspect's race and age. While racial profiling has received considerable attention, discussions about age-based patrolling and age-graded penalties have received much less attention. In the current analysis, we test the response, by age, of speeding on roadways (a crime that is often considered to be linked to age) to decreases in the probability of being apprehended. We find that all drivers appear to quasi-uniformly increase their speed in response to the reduced chance of being apprehended. Additionally, more egregious and seasoned offenders tend to be more responsive to fluctuations in law enforcement presence.
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Self-Reported and Official Offending from Age 10 to Age 56
David Farrington et al.
European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, June 2013, Pages 135-151
Abstract:
In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, over 400 London males have been followed up from age 8 to age 48 in face-to-face interviews and up to age 56 in criminal records. About 42 % of the males were convicted up to age 56. During five age ranges up to age 47, 94 % of the males admitted at least one of eight offenses, in comparison with 31 % who were convicted for at least one of these offenses in these age ranges. The prevalence of offending, and the number of offenses committed, decreased steadily after age 18 according to both convictions and self-reports. On average, there were 38 self-reported offenses per conviction, and this ratio also decreased with age. Convicted males self-reported 25 offenses per conviction on average. It is concluded that the "scaling-up factor" from convictions to self-reported offenses is very important, especially in evaluating the effectiveness of intervention programs.
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Post-compulsory education and imprisonment
Kaja Høiseth Brugård & Torberg Falch
Labour Economics, August 2013, Pages 97-106
Abstract:
This paper studies the causal relationship between education and crime. Using Norwegian register data, we estimate the effect of a post-compulsory high school education on imprisonment for young adults. The identification in the instrumental variables model is based on variation in the supply of school slots across school districts and neighborhoods. We find that number of semesters in high school education has a strong diminishing effect on imprisonment. The effect is robust to model specification, but seems to be related to prior skills.
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John Hoffmann, Lance Erickson & Karen Spence
Criminology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Many studies have addressed whether delinquent behavior is associated with various aspects of schooling and academics. However, this research has been limited to examining unidirectional effects. Building on Thornberry's interactional theory, we develop a conceptual model that posits reciprocal associations among delinquent behavior, school attachment, and academic achievement. The model is tested with two waves from the Add Health data set (n = 9,381) that include measures of transcript grade point average (GPA). The results of a set of structural equation models provide evidence that academic achievement is associated with less delinquent behavior over time, as well as with higher school attachment. However, the effects of delinquency are limited to an attenuating effect on subsequent school attachment; delinquency does not directly influence academic achievement. Thus, we find only partial support for interactional theory.
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Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking
Mark Stewart & John Mueller
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Summer 2013, Pages 615-633
Abstract:
This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well as losses. Since homeland security decisionmakers tend to be risk-averse because of the catastrophic or dire nature of the hazard or event, utility theory and Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to propagate uncertainties in calculations of net present value, expected utility, and probabilities of net benefit. We employ a "break-even" cost-benefit analysis to determine the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack that is required for the benefit of security measures to equal their cost. In this context, we examine specific policy options: including Improvised Physical Secondary Barriers (IPSBs) in the array of aircraft security measures, including the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and including them both. Attack probabilities need to exceed 260 percent or 2.6 attacks per year to be 90 percent sure that FAMS is cost-effective, whereas IPSBs have more than 90 percent chance of being cost-effective even if attack probabilities are as low as 6 percent per year. A risk-neutral analysis finds a policy option of adding IPSBs but not FAMS to the other measures to be preferred for all attack probabilities. However, a very risk-averse decisionmaker is 48 percent likely to prefer to retain FAMS even if the attack probability is as low as 1 percent per year - a level of risk aversion exhibited by few, if any, government agencies. Overall, it seems that, even in an analysis that biases the consideration toward the opposite conclusion, far too much may currently be spent on security measures to address the problem of airline hijacking, and many spending reductions could likely be made with little or no consequent reduction of security.
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Jeryl Mumpower et al.
Risk Analysis, forthcoming
Abstract:
A 2009 national telephone survey of 924 U.S. adults assessed perceptions of terrorism and homeland security issues. Respondents rated severity of effects, level of understanding, number affected, and likelihood of four terrorist threats: poisoned water supply; explosion of a small nuclear device in a major U.S. city; an airplane attack similar to 9/11; and explosion of a bomb in a building, train, subway, or highway. Respondents rated perceived risk and willingness to pay (WTP) for dealing with each threat. Demographic, attitudinal, and party affiliation data were collected. Respondents rated bomb as highest in perceived risk but gave the highest WTP ratings to nuclear device. For both perceived risk and WTP, psychometric variables were far stronger predictors than were demographic ones. OLS regression analyses using both types of variables to predict perceived risk found only two significant demographic predictors for any threat - Democrat (a negative predictor for bomb) and white male (a significant positive predictor for airline attack). In contrast, among psychometric variables, severity, number affected, and likelihood were predictors of all four threats and level of understanding was a predictor for one. For WTP, education was a negative predictor for three threats; no other demographic variables were significant predictors for any threat. Among psychometric variables, perceived risk and number affected were positive predictors of WTP for all four threats; severity and likelihood were predictors for three; level of understanding was a significant predictor for two.
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Christopher Koper, Bruce Taylor & Daniel Woods
Journal of Experimental Criminology, June 2013, Pages 213-244
Objectives: To test the effects of short-term police patrol operations using license plate readers (LPRs) on crime and disorder at crime hot spots in Mesa, Arizona.
Methods: The study employed a randomized experimental design. For 15 successive 2-week periods, a four-officer squad conducted short daily operations to detect stolen and other vehicles of interest at randomly selected hot spot road segments at varying times of day. Based on random assignment, the unit operated with LPRs on some routes and conducted extensive manual checks of license plates on others. Using random effects panel models, we examined the impact of these operations on violent, property, drug, disorder, and auto theft offenses as measured by calls for service.
Results: Compared to control conditions with standard patrol strategies, the LPR locations had reductions in calls for drug offenses that lasted for at least several weeks beyond the intervention, while the non-LPR, manual check locations exhibited briefer reductions in calls regarding person offenses and auto theft. There were also indications of crime displacement associated with some offenses, particularly drug offenses.
Conclusions: The findings suggest that use of LPRs can reduce certain types of offenses at hot spots and that rotation of short-term LPR operations across hot spots may be an effective way for police agencies to employ small numbers of LPR devices. More generally, the results also provide some support for Sherman's (1990) crackdown theory, which suggests that police can improve their effectiveness in preventing crime through frequent rotation of short-term crackdowns across targets, as it applies to hot spot policing.
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Robin Engel, Marie Skubak Tillyer & Nicholas Corsaro
Justice Quarterly, May/June 2013, Pages 403-439
Abstract:
Research indicates that focused deterrence interventions are associated with violence reductions, although levels of success vary across sites. It is unknown if these strategies can produce sustained reductions over time, and if the variation in success is due to differences in program activities and dosages. This study provides a detailed description and evaluation of the Cincinnati Initiative to Reduce Violence (CIRV), a focused deterrence violence reduction strategy implemented in Cincinnati, Ohio. CIRV's organizational structure and enhanced social services were designed to address sustainability issues that threaten to undermine long-term success. Results from our pooled time series regression models indicate that two violent outcomes - group/gang-member involved homicides and violent firearm incidents - declined significantly following implementation. These declines were observed in both 24- and 42-month post-intervention periods, but not in comparison outcomes. Additional analyses, however, reveal that provision of social services was not responsible for the significant and sustained decline.