Making calls
Perceived Hotness Affects Behavior of Basketball Players and Coaches
Yigal Attali
Psychological Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although "hot hands" in basketball are illusory, the belief in them is so robust that it not only has sparked many debates but may also affect the behavior of players and coaches. On the basis of an entire National Basketball Association season's worth of data, the research reported here shows that even a single successful shot suffices to increase a player's likelihood of taking the next team shot, increase the average distance from which this next shot is taken, decrease the probability that this next shot is successful, and decrease the probability that the coach will replace the player.
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The pricing of soft and hard information: Economic lessons from screenplay sales
William Goetzmann, Abraham Ravid & Ronald Sverdlove
Journal of Cultural Economics, May 2013, Pages 271-307
Abstract:
This paper uses a unique data set on screenplay sales to learn how the information content of a sales pitch affects sale prices. This is one of the few studies that analyze "soft information" outside the banking industry. We find that "soft information" proxies, such as the descriptive complexity of a pitch, depress prices, in particular for less experienced writers, supporting the common industry view that high concept (short and simple) screenplays sell better. "Hard information" (measurable experience) variables are priced as well. We also find that large studios shun "soft information", whereas small companies handle it better, as predicted by most theories. In the last part of the paper, we find that, surprisingly, buyers seem to be able to forecast the eventual success of a project based upon the purchased script, paying more for screenplays which will eventually culminate in more successful movies. In other words, perhaps "somebody knows something".
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Elanor Williams, David Dunning & Justin Kruger
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, June 2013, Pages 976-994
Abstract:
People often hold inflated views of their performance on intellectual tasks, with poor performers exhibiting the most inflation. What leads to such excessive confidence? We suggest that the more people approach such tasks in a "rational" (i.e., consistent, algorithmic) manner, relative to those who use more variable or ad hoc approaches, the more confident they become, irrespective of whether they are reaching correct judgments. In 6 studies, participants completed tests involving logical reasoning, intuitive physics, or financial investment. Those more consistent in their approach to the task rated their performances more positively, including those consistently pursuing the wrong rule. Indeed, completely consistent but wrong participants thought almost as highly of their performance as did completely consistent and correct participants. Participants were largely aware of the rules they followed and became more confident in their performance when induced to be more systematic in their approach, no matter how misguided that approach was. In part, the link between decision consistency and (over)confidence was mediated by a neglect of alternative solutions as participants followed a more uniform approach to a task.
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Song-Oh Yoon et al.
Psychological Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
In the research reported here, we proposed and demonstrated the prediction-specificity effect, which states that people's prediction of the general outcome of an event (e.g., the winner of a soccer match) is less accurate when the prediction question is framed in a more specific manner (e.g., guessing the score) rather than in a less specific manner (e.g., guessing the winner). We demonstrated this effect by examining people's predictions on actual sports games both in field and laboratory studies. In Study 1, the analysis of 19 billion bets from a commercial sports-betting business provided evidence for the effect of prediction specificity. This effect was replicated in three controlled laboratory studies, in which participants predicted the outcomes of a series of soccer matches. Furthermore, the negative effect of prediction specificity was mediated by participants' underweighting of important holistic information during decision making.
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Opening the Closed Mind: The Effect of Exposure to Literature on the Need for Closure
Maja Djikic, Keith Oatley & Mihnea Moldoveanu
Creativity Research Journal, Spring 2013, Pages 149-154
Abstract:
The need for cognitive closure has been found to be associated with a variety of suboptimal information processing strategies, leading to decreased creativity and rationality. This experiment tested the hypothesis that exposure to fictional short stories, as compared with exposure to nonfictional essays, will reduce need for cognitive closure. One hundred participants were assigned to read either an essay or a short story (out of a set of 8 essays and 8 short stories matched for length, reading difficulty, and interest). After reading, their need for cognitive closure was assessed. As hypothesized, when compared to participants in the essay condition, participants in the short story condition experienced a significant decrease in self-reported need for cognitive closure. The effect was particularly strong for participants who were habitual readers (of either fiction or non-fiction). These findings suggest that reading fictional literature could lead to better procedures of processing information generally, including those of creativity.
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Information Processing Constraints and Asset Mispricing
Alasdair Brown
Economic Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
I analyse a series of natural quasi-experiments -- centered on betting exchange data on the Wimbledon Tennis Championships -- to determine whether information processing constraints are partially responsible for mispricing in asset markets. I find that the arrival of information during each match leads to substantial mispricing between two equivalent assets, and that part of this mispricing can be attributed to differences in the frequency with which the two prices are updated in play. This suggests that information processing constraints force the periodic neglect of one of the assets, thereby causing substantial, albeit temporary, mispricing in this simple asset market.
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The Effectiveness of Airline Pilot Training for Abnormal Events
Stephen Casner, Richard Geven & Kent Williams
Human Factors, June 2013, Pages 477-485
Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of airline pilot training for abnormal in-flight events.
Background: Numerous accident reports describe situations in which pilots responded to abnormal events in ways that were different from what they had practiced many times before. One explanation for these missteps is that training and testing for these skills have become a highly predictable routine for pilots who arrive to the training environment well aware of what to expect. Under these circumstances, pilots get plentiful practice in responding to abnormal events but may get little practice in recognizing them and deciding which responses to offer.
Method: We presented 18 airline pilots with three abnormal events that are required during periodic training and testing. Pilots were presented with each event under the familiar circumstances used during training and also under less predictable circumstances as they might occur during flight.
Results: When presented in the routine ways seen during training, pilots gave appropriate responses and showed little variability. However, when the abnormal events were presented unexpectedly, pilots' responses were less appropriate and showed great variability from pilot to pilot.
Conclusion: The results suggest that the training and testing practices used in airline training may result in rote-memorized skills that are specific to the training situation and that offer modest generalizability to other situations. We recommend a more complete treatment of abnormal events that allows pilots to practice recognizing the event and choosing and recalling the appropriate response.
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Short- and Long-Term Effects of Conscious, Minimally Conscious and Unconscious Brand Logos
Charlotte Muscarella et al.
PLoS ONE, May 2013
Abstract:
Unconsciously presented information can influence our behavior in an experimental context. However, whether these effects can be translated to a daily life context, such as advertising, is strongly debated. What hampers this translation is the widely accepted notion of the short-livedness of unconscious representations. The effect of unconscious information on behavior is assumed to rapidly vanish within a few hundreds of milliseconds. Using highly familiar brand logos (e.g., the logo of McDonald's) as subliminal and supraliminal primes in two priming experiments, we assessed whether these logos were able to elicit behavioral effects after a short (e.g., 350 ms), a medium (e.g., 1000 ms), and a long (e.g., 5000 ms) interval. Our results demonstrate that when real-life information is presented minimally consciously or even unconsciously, it can influence our subsequent behavior, even when more than five seconds pass between the presentation of the minimally conscious or unconscious information and the behavior on which it exerts its influence.
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Enhanced Cardiac Perception Is Associated With Increased Susceptibility to Framing Effects
Stefan Sütterlin et al.
Cognitive Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Previous studies suggest in line with dual process models that interoceptive skills affect controlled decisions via automatic or implicit processing. The "framing effect" is considered to capture implicit effects of task-irrelevant emotional stimuli on decision-making. We hypothesized that cardiac awareness, as a measure of interoceptive skills, is positively associated with susceptibility to the framing effect. Forty volunteers performed a risky-choice framing task in which the effect of loss versus gain frames on decisions based on identical information was assessed. The results show a positive association between cardiac awareness and the framing effect, accounting for 24% of the variance in the framing effect. These findings demonstrate that good interoceptive skills are linked to poorer performance in risky choices based on ambivalent information when implicit bias is induced by task-irrelevant emotional information. These findings support a dual process perspective on decision-making and suggest that interoceptive skills mediate effects of implicit bias on decisions.
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Gist Memory in the Unconscious-Thought Effect
Marlène Abadie, Laurent Waroquier & Patrice Terrier
Psychological Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
The unconscious-thought effect (UTE) occurs when people are better able to make complex decisions after a period of distraction rather than immediately or after a period of conscious deliberation. This finding has often been interpreted as evidence of unconscious thinking. In two experiments, we provided the first evidence that the UTE is accompanied by enhanced memory for the gist of decision-relevant attributes and demonstrated that the cognitive demands of a distraction task moderate its effect on decision making and gist memory. It was only following a low-demand distraction task that participants chose the best alternative more often and displayed enhanced gist memory for decision-relevant attributes. These findings suggest that the UTE occurs only if cognitive resources are available and that it is accompanied by enhanced organization of information in memory, as shown by the increase in gist memory.
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Impartiality in humans is predicted by brain structure of dorsomedial prefrontal cortex
Thomas Baumgartner et al.
NeuroImage, 1 November 2013, Pages 317-324
Abstract:
The moral force of impartiality (i.e. the equal treatment of all human beings) is imperative for providing justice and fairness. Yet, in reality many people become partial during intergroup interactions; they demonstrate a preferential treatment of ingroup members and a discriminatory treatment of outgroup members. Some people, however, do not show this intergroup bias. The underlying sources of these inter-individual differences are poorly understood. Here we demonstrate that the larger the gray matter volume and thickness of the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC), the more individuals in the role of an uninvolved third-party impartially punish outgroup and ingroup perpetrators. Moreover, we show evidence for a possible mechanism that explains the impact of DMPFC's gray matter volume on impartiality, namely perspective-taking. Large gray matter volume of DMPFC seems to facilitate equal perspective-taking of all sides, which in turn leads to impartial behavior. This is the first evidence demonstrating that brain structure of the DMPFC constitutes an important source underlying an individual's propensity for impartiality.
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The power of precise numbers: A conversational logic analysis
Charles Zhang & Norbert Schwarz
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
The role of conversational processes in quantitative judgment is addressed. In three studies, precise numbers (e.g., $29.75) had a stronger influence on subsequent estimates than round numbers (e.g., $30), but only when they were presented by a human communicator whose contributions could be assumed to observe the Gricean maxims of cooperative conversational conduct. Numeric precision exerted no influence when the numbers were presented as the result of an automated procedure that lacks communicative intent (Study 1) or when the level of precision was pragmatically irrelevant for the estimation task (Study 2).
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Limits in decision making arise from limits in memory retrieval
Gyslain Giguère & Bradley Love
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 7 May 2013, Pages 7613-7618
Abstract:
Some decisions, such as predicting the winner of a baseball game, are challenging in part because outcomes are probabilistic. When making such decisions, one view is that humans stochastically and selectively retrieve a small set of relevant memories that provides evidence for competing options. We show that optimal performance at test is impossible when retrieving information in this fashion, no matter how extensive training is, because limited retrieval introduces noise into the decision process that cannot be overcome. One implication is that people should be more accurate in predicting future events when trained on idealized rather than on the actual distributions of items. In other words, we predict the best way to convey information to people is to present it in a distorted, idealized form. Idealization of training distributions is predicted to reduce the harmful noise induced by immutable bottlenecks in people's memory retrieval processes. In contrast, machine learning systems that selectively weight (i.e., retrieve) all training examples at test should not benefit from idealization. These conjectures are strongly supported by several studies and supporting analyses. Unlike machine systems, people's test performance on a target distribution is higher when they are trained on an idealized version of the distribution rather than on the actual target distribution. Optimal machine classifiers modified to selectively and stochastically sample from memory match the pattern of human performance. These results suggest firm limits on human rationality and have broad implications for how to train humans tasked with important classification decisions, such as radiologists, baggage screeners, intelligence analysts, and gamblers.