It turns out
Time Regulations as Electoral Policy
Robert Urbatsch
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Having had more or less sleep changes mood and behavior; for example, more sleep associates with greater productivity and a perception that more time is available. This changes the time cost of voting in ways particularly important for the United States, where the general elections are sometimes but not always held 2 days after a 25-hr day, when people typically have had more time to catch up on sleep. Election returns and surveys confirm that circumstances where the election occurs 2 days after a long day produce higher turnout, suggesting a role for factors that affect sleep in political behavior.
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Dead Newspapers and Citizens' Civic Engagement
Lee Shaker
Political Communication, Winter 2014, Pages 131-148
Abstract:
Using data from the 2008 and 2009 Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted by the United States Census Bureau, this article assesses the year-over-year change in the civic engagement of citizens in America's largest metropolitan areas. Of special interest are Denver and Seattle, where the Rocky Mountain News and Seattle Post-Intelligencer closed during the intervening year. The data from the CPS indicate that civic engagement in Seattle and Denver dropped significantly from 2008 to 2009 - a decline that is not consistently replicated over the same time period in other major American cities that did not lose a newspaper. The analysis suggests that this decline may plausibly be attributed to the newspaper closures in Seattle and Denver. This short-term negative effect is concerning, and whether it lasts warrants future attention.
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Lesley Lavery
Politics & Policy, December 2013, Pages 877-910
Abstract:
Several decades of scholarship suggest that by covering male and female candidates differently, the news media may influence the success of female candidates for higher office. I employ a content analysis to assess gender differences in the local television news coverage of 172 U.S. House candidates in the nation's top 50 media markets in 2002. The results of the study suggest that female candidates for the U.S. House were covered with the same frequency as male candidates, and received equitable issue-based and personal coverage.
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Ignorance Is Bias: The Effect of Latino Losers on Models of Latino Representation
Eric Gonzalez Juenke
American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Nearly every aggregate study of minority legislative representation has observed outcomes of elections (officeholders), rather than the supply of minority candidates. Because of this, scholars have left a large amount of important data, the election losers, out of their models of minority representation. The evidence presented in this article demonstrates that voters in the United States cannot choose minority officeholders because there are rarely minority candidates on the ballot. I use state legislative candidate data from Carsey et al. and Klarner et al. to test models of Latino representation that correct for first-stage selection bias. Once candidate self-selection is taken into account, the probability of electing a Latino increases enormously. I then use data from 2010 to make out-of-sample predictions, which clearly favor the conditional model. Thus, our current understanding of Latino representation is significantly biased by ignoring the first stage of an election, a candidate's decision to run.
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Michael Herron & Daniel Smith
Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
In mid-2011, the Florida legislature reduced the state's early voting period from fourteen days to eight and eliminated the final Sunday of early voting. We compare observed voting patterns in 2012 with those in the 2008 General Election and find that racial/ethnic minorities, registered Democrats, and those without party affiliation had significant early voting participation drops and that voters who cast ballots on the final Sunday in 2008 were disproportionately unlikely to cast a valid ballot in 2012. Florida's decision to truncate early voting may have diminished participation rates of those already least likely to vote.
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Did Hurricane Sandy Influence the 2012 US Presidential Election?
Joshua Hart
Social Science Research, July 2014, Pages 1-8
Abstract:
Despite drawing on a common pool of data, observers of the 2012 presidential campaign came to different conclusions about whether, how, and to what extent "October surprise" Hurricane Sandy influenced the election. The present study used a mixed correlational and experimental design to assess the relation between, and effect of, the salience of Hurricane Sandy on attitudes and voting intentions regarding President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in a large sample of voting-aged adults. Results suggest that immediately following positive news coverage of Obama's handling of the storm's aftermath, Sandy's salience positively influenced attitudes toward Obama, but that by election day, reminders of the hurricane became a drag instead of a boon for the President. In addition to theoretical implications, this study provides an example of how to combine methodological approaches to help answer questions about the impact of unpredictable, large-scale events as they unfold.
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Deception in Third Party Advertising in the 2012 Presidential Campaign
Kenneth Winneg et al.
American Behavioral Scientist, April 2014, Pages 524-535
Abstract:
In this article, we profile the advertising activities and deception levels of the top 2012 spending independent expenditure groups that focused on the presidential contest. From December 1, 2011, through Election Day, November 6, 2012, independent expenditure groups spent more than $360 million on presidential television advertising, according to Kantar Media CMAG. More than a fifth of the dollars spent by the top groups purchased ads containing at least one claim judged as misleading by independent fact checkers. The proportion of dollars that these groups spent on ads containing at least one deception was much greater during the primaries than afterward. During the primaries, the pro-Romney super PAC "Restore Our Future" led the pack both in dollars spent on ads containing at least one deception and in the proportion of its ads found deceptive by the fact checkers. During the general election, in the post-primary period, the pro-Obama super PAC "Priorities USA Action" devoted the most dollars and greatest proportion of its total dollars to ads in which fact checkers found at least one deceptive claim. During some but not all of the 2012 election year, the percentage of third party ads containing at least one deceptive claim was higher among those groups not required to disclose their donors than it was among those required to do so.
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Thinking about Romney: Frame Building in a Battleground State in the 2012 Presidential Election
Sid Bedingfield & Dien Anshari
Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, March 2014, Pages 78-97
Abstract:
Analyzing Ohio newspaper articles (n = 466), this study investigates the framing of Mitt Romney in a key battleground state during the 2012 presidential election. Campaign officials and political journalists contend that attacks launched by President Obama in late spring defined Romney for the remainder of the campaign. Results suggest partial support for this claim by revealing increased use of negative media frames after the attacks began. Specifically, framing of Romney as a "vulture capitalist" increased significantly during the Obama frame-building effort. Findings offer theoretical insights into the concepts of frame building and "content bias" in media coverage of political campaigns.
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Crises, Reforms, and the Voters' Curses
Carlo Prato & Stephane Wolton
Georgetown University Working Paper, February 2014
Abstract:
The inability of the political process to produce welfare improving reforms, especially when they are most needed, is both widespread and puzzling. We analyze a model of elections where successful communication of candidates' platforms during electoral campaigns requires effort from both candidates (senders) and a representative voter (receiver). We show that when the demand for change is either relatively low or relatively high, the electoral process loses its effectiveness as a device to screen competent politicians who implement beneficial reforms, and the voter is hurt. There exists a curse of the apathetic voter and a curse of the engaged voter. Against the so called "crisis hypothesis,'' and in line with empirical findings, our model explains why crises are not a good time for policy changes, and can lead to delayed or botched reforms.
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Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg & Peter Levine
Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Previous research has found that attending racially pluralistic high schools is associated with a reduced likelihood of future electoral and civic engagement. Analysis of a national survey of 18-24 year olds after the 2012 election confirms this finding. However, certain school and family practices and extracurricular activities appear to compensate. Discussion of controversial current issues in social studies classes diminishes the negative association between attending a racially pluralistic school and electoral engagement. School-based discussion is particularly important for young people who attend pluralistic schools and who do not participate in political discussion at home. Opportunities to associate with peers who share common interests through issue-oriented groups predict electoral engagement. Considering that strong arguments can be made in favor of racial diversity in schools, it is important to compensate for the lessened electoral engagement in diverse schools by creating policies and teacher preparation resources that promote high-quality discussion of controversial issues in classrooms, and by encouraging students to participate in extracurricular groups that address political issues.
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Collateral Damage: Involvement and the Effects of Negative Super PAC Advertising
David Lynn Painter
American Behavioral Scientist, April 2014, Pages 510-523
Abstract:
Unprecedented numbers of negative political advertisements aired in battleground markets during the 2012 primaries, the first presidential campaign since the 2010 Citizens United decision. Grounded in theories of involvement, this investigation parses the influence of partisanship and political expression on the affective effects of negative Super PAC ads. Based on a pretest-posttest design with two experimental conditions and 585 participants, the results indicate both enduring and situational involvement exerted significant main and interaction effects on viewers' affect toward the general election candidates and the political parties. Driven by Independents who did not engage in political expression, these Super PAC ads evoked significant net decreases in affect toward Mitt Romney and the Republican Party and net increases toward Barack Obama and the Democratic Party. These results suggest enduring and situational involvement moderate the affective effects of negative Super PAC advertising in primary contests.
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The Relationship Between Campaign Negativity, Gender and Campaign Context
Yanna Krupnikov & Nichole Bauer
Political Behavior, March 2014, Pages 167-188
Abstract:
Are female candidates disproportionately punished for relying on negative campaign ads? While scholars agree that sponsoring negativity works against traditional gender stereotypes, it is less clear how relying on negativity affects voter evaluations of female candidates. In this manuscript we reconsider the relationship between candidate gender and negativity. Relying on theories of conditional stereotype use, we argue that negative ads translate to significantly poorer evaluations for the female candidate when two conditions are met: (1) the female candidate is perceived as the instigator of negativity and (2) she is of a different party than the voter. We test our predictions using an experiment and show that female candidates only face a disproportionate punishment for relying on negativity under our two specific conditions. In contrast, voters are much more forgiving when they believe that a female candidate simply followed her opponent's lead in using negative ads or when negativity is used to promote the voter's party. While our research suggests that - compared to their male counterparts - female candidates do face some added constraints, our findings have broader implications. Not only are voters more or less likely to use gender stereotypes under certain conditions, but these conditions are highly dependent on the campaign context.
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The Effects of Gender-Bending on Candidate Evaluations
Monica Schneider
Journal of Women, Politics & Policy, Winter 2014, Pages 55-77
Abstract:
A candidate's gender affects vote choice, but the manner in which candidates can influence the effects of their gender is not well understood. I address candidates' strategies based on gender stereotypes, that is, how voters are influenced by rhetoric that is either consistent (gender-reinforcing) or inconsistent (gender-bending) with gender stereotypes. These strategic choices are particularly important because of women's underrepresentation in American politics. Employing an experimental design, I found that male and female candidates who used gender-bending rhetoric were able to overturn stereotypes by persuading and priming voters. Male candidates were particularly successful. This was contrary to prior findings that consistency - at least in terms of party - is a superior strategy. These results have important implications for understanding how gender stereotypes evolve throughout a campaign to influence voters.
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Watchful eyes: Implicit observability cues and voting
Costas Panagopoulos
Evolution and Human Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Explicit social pressure has been shown to be a powerful motivator of prosocial behavior like voting in elections. In this study, I replicate and extend the findings of a randomized field experiment designed to study the impact of more subtle, implicit social pressure treatments on voting. The results of the original experiment, conducted in the October 2011 municipal elections in Key West, Florida, demonstrated that even subtle, implicit observability cues, like a pair of stylized eyes facing subjects, effectively mobilized citizens to vote, by about as much as explicit surveillance cues. The replication study, conducted in Lexington, KY during the November 2011 gubernatorial election, corroborates these findings and suggests eyes effect on average do not likely depend on the gender of eyespots used. Taken together, the two field experiments provide strong support for the notion studies that humans are evolutionarily programmed to respond to certain stimuli and that exposure to images that implicitly signal observability is sufficient to stimulate prosocial behavior.
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Decisions among the Undecided: Implicit Attitudes Predict Future Voting Behavior of Undecided Voters
Kristjen Lundberg & Keith Payne
PLoS ONE, January 2014
Abstract:
Implicit attitudes have been suggested as a key to unlock the hidden preferences of undecided voters. Past research, however, offered mixed support for this hypothesis. The present research used a large nationally representative sample and a longitudinal design to examine the predictive utility of implicit and explicit attitude measures in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. In our analyses, explicit attitudes toward candidates predicted voting better for decided than undecided voters, but implicit candidate attitudes were predictive of voting for both decided and undecided voters. Extending our examination to implicit and explicit racial attitudes, we found the same pattern. Taken together, these results provide convergent evidence that implicit attitudes predict voting about as well for undecided as for decided voters. We also assessed a novel explanation for these effects by evaluating whether implicit attitudes may predict the choices of undecided voters, in part, because they are neglected when people introspect about their confidence. Consistent with this idea, we found that the extremity of explicit but not implicit attitudes was associated with greater confidence. These analyses shed new light on the utility of implicit measures in predicting future behavior among individuals who feel undecided. Considering the prior studies together with this new evidence, the data seem to be consistent that implicit attitudes may be successful in predicting the behavior of undecided voters.
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Ideology-Specific Patterns of Moral Indifference Predict Intentions Not to Vote
Kate Johnson et al.
Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Results from a nationally representative survey (N = 1, 341) provide evidence that self-reported nonvoting behavior is associated with lower endorsement of moral concerns and values (Study 1). Across three studies, five large samples (total N = 27,038), and two presidential elections, we replicate this pattern and show that the explicit intention not to vote is associated with lower endorsement of moral concerns and values (Studies 2-4). This pattern was not found for endorsement of nonmoral values. Separate analyses for liberals, conservatives, libertarians, and Tea Party supporters reveal that the intention not to vote is specifically associated with low endorsement of the moral concerns most associated with one's ideological group: Care and Fairness concerns predicted voting intentions for liberals, while Loyalty, Authority, and Sanctity concerns predicted voting intentions for conservatives and members of the Tea Party group FreedomWorks.