Hitting bottom
Roderik Rekker et al.
PLoS ONE, November 2015
Abstract:
A family's SES can be changeable over time. This study was the first to investigate if such within-individual changes in family SES are associated with parallel fluctuations in boys' delinquent behavior from childhood to adolescence. Participants were a community sample of boys and their caregivers (N = 503) who were assessed annually for ten consecutive years spanning ages 7-18. Fixed effects models revealed that changes in familial SES were related to changes in delinquency: Youths were more likely to offend during years in which their parents' SES was lower than during years in which their parents' SES was higher. Contrary to expectations, we found no evidence that this association was accounted for by families moving to different neighborhoods or by changes in parenting. Since within-individual models provide a stricter test of causality than between-individual models, these findings support claims that impacting familial SES may have a direct effect on youths' delinquency.
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Bruce Meyer & Nikolas Mittag
NBER Working Paper, October 2015
Abstract:
We examine the consequences of underreporting of transfer programs for prototypical analyses of low-income populations using the Current Population Survey (CPS), the source of official poverty and inequality statistics. We link administrative data for food stamps, TANF, General Assistance, and subsidized housing from New York State to the CPS at the individual level. Program receipt in the CPS is missed for over one-third of housing assistance recipients, 40 percent of food stamp recipients and 60 percent of TANF and General Assistance recipients. Dollars of benefits are also undercounted for reporting recipients, particularly for TANF, General Assistance and housing assistance. We find that the survey data sharply understate the income of poor households. Underreporting in the survey data also greatly understates the effects of anti-poverty programs and changes our understanding of program targeting. Using the combined data rather than survey data alone, the poverty reducing effect of all programs together is nearly doubled while the effect of housing assistance is tripled. We also re-examine the coverage of the safety net, specifically the share of people without work or program receipt. Using the administrative measures of program receipt rather than the survey ones often reduces the share of single mothers falling through the safety net by one-half or more.
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The Intergenerational Impacts of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Education and Employment Outcomes
Jacob Bastian & Katherine Michelmore
University of Michigan Working Paper, October 2015
Abstract:
Using four decades of variation in federal and state Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) benefits, we estimate the impact of policy-induced EITC increases on subsequent adult outcomes for children of EITC recipients. Estimates suggest that an additional $1,000 in EITC exposure when a child is 18 years old increases: the likelihood of completing high school (2.5 percent), attending college (3.7 percent), completing college (3.7 percent), and being employed (1.2 percent), as well as annual earnings (by $914 or about 3 percent). The intergenerational effect of the EITC seems to be largest for children exposed to it during their teenage years.
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Is the Cure Worse than the Disease? Unintended Consequences of Fraud Reduction in Transfer Programs
Katherine Meckel
Columbia University Working Paper, April 2015
Abstract:
Many U.S. safety net programs involve in-kind transfers, which are used in order to both alter consumption patterns among recipients and limit take-up by ineligibles. However, in the absence of its own network of providers, the government must rely on private vendors to serve as its agents in rendering transfers, giving rise to two types of agency problems: (1) vendors may refuse to participate in government programs, leaving needy people unserved or (2) vendors may engage in fraud in order to increase their payoff from participation. A separate issue arises when government intervention in private markets causes general equilibrium effects on third parties. This paper examines attempts to reduce vendor fraud in the Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) using data on the staggered rollout of a fraud reduction program in Texas. Vendors were required to move to an electronic payment system that allowed regulators to more easily verify reimbursement claims. I show that the program was effective in reducing fraud, but also that it increased vendor non-participation, leading to a reduction in WIC take-up among eligible women. I also show that the fraud reduction program increased prices paid by non-WIC shoppers by 9%. Overall, I estimate a net reduction in social welfare associated with the reform of 3-4% of the value of benefits received. My results indicate that the effectiveness of policies intended to alter consumption patterns among welfare recipients depend crucially on the incentives of providers and that enforcement measures interact with these incentives.
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Short-run Effects of Parental Job Loss on Child Health
Jessamyn Schaller & Mariana Zerpa
NBER Working Paper, November 2015
Abstract:
Recent research suggests that parental job loss has negative effects on children's outcomes, including their academic achievement and long-run educational and labor market outcomes. In this paper we turn our attention to the effects of parental job loss on children's health. We combine health data from 16 waves of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, which allows us to use a fixed effects specification and still have a large sample of parental job displacements. We find that paternal job loss is detrimental to the physical and mental health of children in low-socioeconomic status (SES) families, increasing their incidence of injuries and mental disorders. We separately find that maternal job loss leads to reductions in the incidence of infectious illness among children in high-SES families, possibly resulting from substitution of maternal care for market-based childcare services. Increases in public health insurance coverage compensate for a large share of the loss in private coverage that follows parental displacement, and we find no significant changes in routine or diagnostic medical care.
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Daniel Grossman
West Virginia University Working Paper, November 2015
Abstract:
I estimate the health impacts of the Empowerment Zone (EZ) program - a federal program that gave sizeable grants and tax breaks to certain high-poverty census tracts in selected cities. Using difference-in-differences methods, I find that the EZ program decreased fertility rates by 11 percent and improved birth outcomes. This increase in infant health was not driven by changes in the composition of births. Synthetic control methods and estimates using an alternate control group support these findings. Recent research on the later-life impacts of low birth weight suggest that the health impacts of this program may have substantial long-term benefits.
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Homeless Programs and Social Insurance
Igor Popov
Stanford Working Paper, November 2015
Abstract:
Each year, over 1.5 million Americans rely on homeless programs for overnight shelter. Despite robust federal funding for this critical part of the social safety net, more than 200,000 remain unsheltered on any given night. In this paper, I quantify behavioral responses to program generosity to study the tradeoffs inherent in expanding homeless assistance. I utilize a novel, national dataset on sheltered and unsheltered homeless populations and exploit differential distribution of federal homeless assistance grants across communities. An outdated formula sets each region's funding eligibility, inadvertently generating exogenous variation in homeless assistance. Program providers use the resulting marginal funds to add beds in both individual and family programs. Homeless individuals and families, however, have very different characteristics and behavioral patterns. I find that greater individual program generosity reduces unsheltered homelessness without drawing others into the local homeless population. A permanent $100,000 annual increase in homeless assistance decreases the size of the unsheltered population by 35 individuals, and all of the individuals who utilize marginal beds would otherwise be unsheltered. The effects of family program expansions are quite different. More generous funding helps house otherwise unsheltered families while also drawing in a larger homeless family population (73 additional people in families for every $100,000). I show that this increase is primarily driven by homeless families migrating to communities with greater funding. These results illuminate the policy responsiveness of homeless populations and shed light on the efficacy of homeless assistance funding.
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Individual determinants of homelessness: A descriptive approach
Justin Jarvis
Journal of Housing Economics, December 2015, Pages 23-32
Abstract:
In this paper, I utilize a novel data set collected in 2012 to investigate the determinants of homelessness intensity among those who are street homeless in Costa Mesa, California. By restricting the sample to only those who are already homeless and introducing the concept of a homelessness intensity measure, I exploit variation in individual characteristics and usage of a Check-In Center to predict the intensity of homelessness (defined as the ratio of actual homeless nights to potential homeless nights). By making use of a novel application of the weighted least squares estimator, I am able to estimate coefficients that are design-unbiased for the population values. By using an instrument, I find that the Check-In Center has a large negative effect on the intensity of homelessness. The self-reported cause of homelessness is a determining factor as well. I also find, as would be expected, that education and the presence of family nearby lessens the intensity of homelessness.
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Deprivation Among U.S. Children With Disabilities Who Receive Supplemental Security Income
Subharati Ghosh & Susan Parish
Journal of Disability Policy Studies, December 2015, Pages 173-183
Abstract:
This study analyzes data from the 2004 and 2008 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to examine demographic factors among low-income households with children with disabilities that were associated with greater likelihood of receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program, and their rates of material hardship (n = 444), by comparing them to low-income households with children with disabilities who did not receive child SSI (n = 1,942) and other low-income households that did not have children with disabilities (n = 7,533). Results showed household characteristics, such as those headed by individuals who were single women and Black people and those with less than high school education, and the presence of any working-age adult with disability to be significantly associated with greater likelihood of receiving child SSI. The study also found that controlling for selected demographic characteristics, low-income households with children with disabilities, irrespective of whether or not they received child SSI, experienced significant rates of hardships compared to low-income households without children with disabilities. The study found no evidence that receipt of SSI was associated with reduced material hardships in households with children with disabilities. Implications for policy are discussed.
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Shopping Around: How Households Adjusted Food Spending Over the Great Recession
Rachel Griffith, Martin O'Connell & Kate Smith
Economica, forthcoming
Abstract:
Over the Great Recession, UK households reduced real food expenditure. We show that they were able to maintain the number of calories that they purchased, and the nutritional quality of these calories, by adjusting their shopping behaviour. We document the mechanisms that households used. We motivate our analysis with a model of shopping behaviour in which households adjust shopping effort and the characteristics of their shopping basket in response to economic shocks. We use detailed longitudinal data and focus on within-household changes in basket characteristics and proxies for shopping effort.
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Does Eliminating the Earnings Test Increase the Incidence of Low Income Among Older Women?
Theodore Figinski & David Neumark
NBER Working Paper, October 2015
Abstract:
Reductions in the implicit taxation of Social Security benefits from reducing or eliminating the Retirement Earnings Test (RET) are an appealing - and in many cases successful - means of encouraging labor supply of older individuals receiving benefits. The downside, however, is that the same policy reforms can encourage earlier claiming of Social Security benefits, which permanently lowers benefits paid in the future. Depending on the magnitude of the effects on earnings and how households or individuals adjust their consumption and savings decisions, the net effect can be lower incomes at much older ages well beyond when people have retired. We explore the consequences of the 2000 reforms eliminating the RET from the Full Retirement Age to age 69 for the longer-run evolution of income, focusing in particular on the incidence of low income among older women, who are more likely to have become dependent mainly on income from their Social Security benefits. We find that the elimination of the RET increased the likelihood of having low incomes among women in their mid-70s and older - ages at which the lower benefits, in the long run, from claiming earlier outweigh possibly higher income in the period when women or their husbands increased their labor supply.