Harm's way
Jason Matejkowski et al.
Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology, May/June 2014, Pages 362-369
Abstract:
This study explores the potential that current efforts to limit access to firearms for individuals with serious mental illness (SMI) have for reducing overall rates of murder by firearm in the United States. Official arrest, court and health records provided data on personal and offense characteristics of 95 individuals with SMI and 423 without, all of whom had been convicted of murder in the State of Indiana between 1990 and 2002. Bivariate analyses examined differences between the two groups and logistic regression models examined the relationship between SMI and offense characteristics. Compared to those without, a relatively small proportion of convicted murderers had a diagnosis indicating SMI. The presence of SMI was associated with reduced likelihood of targeting a stranger and was not associated with having multiple-victims or firearm use. Focusing on access to firearms exclusively by individuals with SMI will have little impact on multiple-victim or firearm-related homicides.
----------------------
The effect of firearm restrictions on gun-related homicides across US states
Steven Lanza
Applied Economics Letters, Summer 2014, Pages 902-905
Abstract:
The Newtown massacre has raised the issue of gun violence to a fever pitch. While several states have responded with tough new controls on firearms, most states have loosened restrictions. This study explores what effect such changes might have on gun-related homicides in the United States. The results, based on panel data for the 50 states over the 2007–2010 period and estimated under several alternative model specifications, suggest that looser restrictions will likely do little to lessen the incidence of gun deaths but that tighter restrictions may produce a modest reduction in firearm fatalities.
----------------------
Trends in Children’s Exposure to Violence, 2003 to 2011
David Finkelhor et al.
JAMA Pediatrics, June 2014, Pages 540-546
Objective: To identify trends in children’s exposure to violence, crime, and abuse from 2003 through 2011.
Design, Setting, and Participants: Three national telephone surveys of representative samples of children and caregivers from 2003, 2008, and 2011 were compared, all obtained using the Juvenile Victimization Questionnaire; samples included parents of children 2 to 9 years old and youth 10 to 17 years old.
Results: Of 50 trends in exposure examined, there were 27 significant declines and no significant increases between 2003 and 2011. Declines were particularly large for assault victimization, bullying, and sexual victimization. There were also significant declines in the perpetration of violence and property crime. For the recession period between 2008 and 2011, there were 11 significant declines and no increases for 50 specific trends examined. Dating violence declined, as did one form of sexual victimization and some forms of indirect exposure.
Conclusions and Relevance: Victimization surveys with general population samples confirm patterns seen in police data and adult surveys. Crime and violence have been declining in the child and youth population as well.
----------------------
David Kirk
University of Texas Working Paper, April 2014
Abstract:
Even during the 1990s as concentrated poverty briefly dissipated in the United States, one segment of the urban underclass continued to expand rapidly — the prison population. Indeed mass incarceration has artificially hidden the true extent of inequality and poverty in the country. Roughly 700,000 prisoners are released from incarceration each year in the United States, and most end up residing in urban areas, clustered within a select few neighborhoods. The massive rise in the number of returning prisoners combined with the geographic concentration of these ex-prisoners means that select urban neighborhoods have become inundated with individuals who have served time in prison. Through a contagious process, neighborhoods characterized by a concentration of former prisoners likely incubate an environment conducive to crime and subsequent incarceration. Yet what would happen to rates of aberrant behavior if former prisoners were dispersed across geographic space instead of concentrated? Through investigations of national patterns of prisoner reentry as well as a natural experiment focused on post-Hurricane Katrina Louisiana, I find that a decrease in the concentration of parolees in a neighborhood leads to a significant decline in the rate of admission to prison for neighborhood residents generally and in the re-incarceration rate for former prisoners specifically. To reduce the emergent consequences of concentrated prisoner reentry, it would be worthwhile to consider policies that disperse the parolee population instead of concentrating it into select neighborhoods.
----------------------
The Impact of Living-Wage Ordinances on Urban Crime
Jose Fernandez, Thomas Holman & John Pepper
Industrial Relations, July 2014, Pages 478–500
Abstract:
We examine the impact of living wages on crime. Past research has found that living wages appear to increase unemployment while providing greater returns to market work. The impact on crime, therefore, is unclear. Using data on annual crime rates for large cities in the United States, we find that living-wage ordinances are associated with notable reductions in property-related crime and no discernable impact on nonproperty crimes.
----------------------
Social welfare support and homicide: Longitudinal analyses of European countries from 1994 to 2010
Patricia McCall & Jonathan Brauer
Social Science Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
The purpose of this research is to explore the extent to which retrenchment in welfare support is related to homicide trends across European countries between 1994 and 2010. Using a longitudinal decomposition design that allows for stronger causal inferences compared to typical cross-sectional designs, we examine these potential linkages between social support spending and homicide with data collected from a heterogeneous sample of European nations, including twenty Western nations and nine less frequently analyzed East-Central nations, during recent years in which European nations generally witnessed substantial changes in homicide rates as well as both economic prosperity and fiscal crisis. Results suggest that even incremental, short-term changes in welfare support spending are associated with short-term reductions in homicide — specifically, impacting homicide rates within two to three years for this sample of European nations.
----------------------
Can Safe Ride Programs Reduce Urban Crime?
Bryan Weber
Regional Science and Urban Economics, September 2014, Pages 1–11
Abstract:
This study evaluates the influence of a safe ride program on neighborhood crime in a major urban area. Using an hours of the week panel, the program’s operation is associated with an approximate 14 percent reduction in crime. The program being open appears to have roughly similar influences on different categories of crime. Moreover, increases in rides (the intensity of the program) are also associated with reductions in crime. Such increases in program intensity are also associated with notably greater reductions in crime occurring on weekends. The cost of the safe ride program suggests it is a relatively efficient means of reducing crime.
----------------------
Catching the Really Bad Guys: An Assessment of the Efficacy of the U.S. Criminal Justice System
J.C. Barnes
Journal of Criminal Justice, July–August 2014, Pages 338–346
Purpose: History shows that one of the most important institutions to a society is its criminal justice system. The current study offers an analysis of the criminal justice system’s effectiveness in identifying, apprehending, convicting, and punishing high-level/persistent offenders.
Methods: Data were drawn from all four waves of the Add Health study. Survey-corrected univariate statistics and logistic regression models were estimated to provide population parameter estimates of the frequency of arrest and punishment for a group of persistent offenders compared to non-persistent offenders.
Results: Findings indicated persistent offenders (as identified by self-reported crime) were much more likely to be arrested (63% vs. 26%), accounted for more arrests (View the MathML source = 1.71 vs. View the MathML source = .53), were more likely to be convicted (39% vs. 11%), were more likely to be placed on probation (38% vs. 12%), and were more likely to be sent to jail (43% vs. 13%) compared to non-persistent offenders. These differences remained when levels of psychopathy, age, race, and sex were controlled in the logistic regression models.
Conclusions: These findings suggest the criminal justice system does a good job of identifying and punishing offenders who break the law more frequently.
----------------------
The Influence of Gentrification on Gang Homicides in Chicago Neighborhoods, 1994 to 2005
Chris Smith
Crime & Delinquency, June 2014, Pages 569-591
Abstract:
In this study, the author examines the effects of three forms of gentrification — demographic shifts, private investment, and state intervention — on gang-motivated homicides in Chicago from 1994 to 2005 using data from the U.S. Census, the Chicago Police Department, business directories, and the Chicago Housing Authority. The findings suggest that demographic shifts have a strong negative effect on gang homicide. Private investment gentrification, measured here as the proliferation of coffee shops, has a marginally significant and negative effect on gang homicide. In contrast, state-based gentrification, operationalized as the demolition of public housing, has a positive effect on gang homicide.
----------------------
Education and Crime over the Life Cycle
Giulio Fella & Giovanni Gallipoli
Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
We compare two large-scale policy interventions aimed at reducing crime: subsidizing high school completion and increasing the length of prison sentences. To this purpose we use a life-cycle model with endogenous education and crime choices. We apply the model to property crime and calibrate it to U.S. data. We find that targeting crime reductions through increases in high school graduation rates entails large efficiency and welfare gains. These gains are absent if the same crime reduction is achieved by increasing the length of sentences. We also find that general equilibrium effects explain roughly one half of the reduction in crime from subsidizing high school.
----------------------
Crime Deterrence: Evidence From the London 2011 Riots
Brian Bell, Laura Jaitman & Stephen Machin
Economic Journal, May 2014, Pages 480–506
Abstract:
Significant riots occurred in London in August 2011. The riots took place in highly localised geographical areas, with crime going up hugely in the affected sub-wards. The criminal justice response was to make sentencing for rioters much more severe. We show a significant drop in riot crimes across London in the six months after the riots, consistent with a deterrence effect from the tougher sentencing. More evidence of general deterrence comes from the observation that crime also fell in the post-riot aftermath in areas where rioting did not take place.
----------------------
Monoamine oxidase A genotype, childhood adversity, and criminal behavior in an incarcerated sample
Todd Armstrong et al.
Psychiatric Genetics, forthcoming
Background: A number of studies have found a functional variable number tandem repeat polymorphism in the upstream regulatory region of the monamine oxidase A gene (MAOA-uVNTR) interacts with childhood adversity to increase risk for antisocial behavior. Several studies have also reported null findings.
Methods: Here, we examine the association between MAOA-uVNTR genotype, childhood adversity, and criminal activity in a sample of 99 male volunteers who were incarcerated in a large city jail in the Southern United States. MAOA-uVNTR genotypes were obtained from DNA extracted from buccal swabs. Criminal activity in the year before incarceration and childhood adversity were measured with self-report surveys. Violent arrest rates and property arrest rates were quantified with official records of arrest and accounted for periods of incarceration in local and state correctional facilities.
Results: The low expressing allele of the MAOA-uVNTR genotype (MAOAL) interacted with abuse to predict self-reports of less serious criminal and delinquent behavior and had a direct association with serious criminal activity. MAOAL genotype interacted with parental criminality to predict self-reports of serious criminal behavior, property arrest rates, and violent arrest rates.
Conclusion: The findings suggest that crime prevention efforts may be improved through attention to the neurodevelopmental consequence of gene-by-environment interactions.
----------------------
Juvenile Drug Courts and Recidivism: Results from a Multisite Outcome Study
Christopher Sullivan et al.
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study reports findings from a study of nine juvenile drug courts (JDCs) from across the US. A quasi-experimental design, with one-to-one matching on possible confounders and sociodemographics, was used for the outcome assessment (n = 1372). Baseline and outcome data were drawn from justice system records. Although there is variation across sites and, to some extent, outcomes, these JDCs were generally ineffective in reducing recidivism. Similar findings have emerged in other recent studies of JDCs. Given the results of this study and others, it is essential that juvenile courts work to improve the effectiveness of JDCs by increasing adherence to known principles of effective intervention.
----------------------
The location of placement and juvenile delinquency: Do neighborhoods matter in child welfare?
Hui Huang & Joseph Ryan
Children and Youth Services Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study aims to advance the knowledge base by investigating where foster youth are placed in terms of neighborhood characteristics and whether specific neighborhood characteristics were associated with delinquency for adolescents in the child welfare system. This study followed the placement experiences of 2,360 foster youth in Chicago from birth to 16 years of age. The study used State administrative data, census data, and the community survey of the Project of Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods. The results indicated that foster care placements cluster in neighborhoods characterized by high concentrated disadvantage, low ethnic heterogeneity, low collective efficacy, prevalent neighborhood disorder and violent culture. The results indicated that neighborhood ethnic heterogeneity is positively associated with delinquent offending. The implications for policy and practice are discussed.
----------------------
Constructing Victims: The Erasure of Women's Resistance to Sexual Assault
Jocelyn Hollander & Katie Rodgers
Sociological Forum, June 2014, Pages 342–364
Abstract:
How do the news media portray women's resistance to sexual assault? We analyze articles from a systematic sample of 16 U.S. newspapers across 1 full calendar year to assess whether and how newspapers describe women's resistance. We find that in most cases, newspaper reports reinforce the belief that women are incapable of effectively defending themselves. Most articles fail to mention women's resistance or do so only to note its failure; the longer the article, the more likely it is to follow these patterns. Headlines exaggerate these patterns, presenting virtually no evidence that the articles that follow, or that assaults themselves, contain any female resistance or agency. In only a very small minority of cases are women described as strong, competent actors with the ability to defend themselves against violence. We conclude with a discussion of the potential individual and societal consequences of these patterns.
----------------------
Fugitives in the United States
David Bierie
Journal of Criminal Justice, July–August 2014, Pages 327–337
Purpose: To (A) describe the prevalence of warrants in the U.S., including variation in warrant features across geography as well as demographics of fugitives (age, race, and gender). In addition, the paper (B) models a key feature of warrants (extradition limits) as a function of legal and extra-legal factors.
Methods: This study draws on the Wanted Persons file — the central operational database maintained by the National Criminal Information Center (NCIC) for tracking warrants from all jurisdictions in the United States. Warrant factors are described across demographic groups via bivariate comparisons. Extradition is modeled via a multivariate fixed effects logistic regression framework (i.e., within state comparisons).
Results: The data show approximately 2 million warrants are active on any given day. Warrant features vary significantly across states (per capita), and fugitive demographics. Extradition varies as a function of legal (e.g., crime seriousness) and extra-legal factors (e.g., race of fugitive).
Conclusions: Warrants may provide an important new avenue for scholarship on disparity, criminal careers, and the administration of justice.
----------------------
Going to Jail Sucks (And It Really Doesn’t Matter Who You Ask)
David May et al.
American Journal of Criminal Justice, June 2014, Pages 250-266
Abstract:
A growing body of research suggests that, according to both offenders and criminal justice practitioners, jails and correctional boot camps are viewed and experienced as significantly more punitive than prison. Nevertheless, limited research exists examining the perceptions of the public regarding jail conditions and operations. Using responses from 1,183 Kentucky adults, we examine public opinion regarding the punitiveness of jail when compared to prison. We determine that, with the exception of boot camp, respondents feel that jail is the most punitive noncapital sanction. Additionally, respondents who had been convicted of a felony at some point in their lives and respondents with lower household income indicated that they would serve significantly less time in jail to avoid prison than their counterparts if given the option. Implications for policy and future research are discussed.
----------------------
Evaluation of the Phoenix TRUCE Project: A Replication of Chicago CeaseFire
Andrew Fox et al.
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
The Phoenix TRUCE Project was modeled after the Chicago CeaseFire program. There have been relatively few process and impact evaluations on the model compared to the level of funding and attention the program has rendered. This paper presents findings related to the evaluation of the TRUCE project. We found that the program engaged in a strong media campaign, conducted conflict mediations, and identified high-risk individuals for case management. The program did not, however, establish a coordinated and collaborative relationship with the faith-based community or other community groups. Time-series analysis showed that program implementation corresponded to a significant decrease in overall levels of violence by more than 16 incidents on average per month, a decrease of 16 assaults on average per month, and resulted in a significant increase of 3.2 shootings on average per month, controlling for the comparison areas and the trends in the data.
----------------------
Returns to Postincarceration Education for Former Prisoners
Christian Brown
Social Science Quarterly, forthcoming
Objectives: I estimate the returns to education for individuals who attain education after an incarceration spell.
Methods: Returns to labor supply and wages are estimated using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and a variety of regression and matching techniques.
Results: A positive relationship is found between postincarceration education and labor outcomes, especially for college completion. The General Equivalency Diploma (GED) is not associated with direct benefits.
Conclusions: The returns to post-incarceration education are positive but diminished, implying that programs targeted at college completion may best serve prisoners after release.
----------------------
Predictive accuracy in the neuroprediction of rearrest
Eyal Aharoni et al.
Social Neuroscience, July/August 2014, Pages 332-336
Abstract:
A recently published study by the present authors reported evidence that functional changes in the anterior cingulate cortex within a sample of 96 criminal offenders who were engaged in a Go/No-Go impulse control task significantly predicted their rearrest following release from prison. In an extended analysis, we use discrimination and calibration techniques to test the accuracy of these predictions relative to more traditional models and their ability to generalize to new observations in both full and reduced models. Modest to strong discrimination and calibration accuracy were found, providing additional support for the utility of neurobiological measures in predicting rearrest.
----------------------
Do Phishing Alerts Impact Global Corporations? A Firm Value Analysis
Indranil Bose & Alvin Chung Man Leung
Decision Support Systems, forthcoming
Abstract:
Phishing is a form of online identity theft that is increasingly becoming a global menace. In this research, we analyze the impact of phishing alerts released in public databases on the market value of global firms. Using a sample of 1,942 phishing alerts related to 259 firms in 32 countries, we show that the release of each phishing alert leads to a statistically significant loss of market capitalization that is at least US$ 411 million for a firm. We propose a theoretical framework for analyzing the impact of threats on firm value, and determine that the negative investor reaction is strongly significant for alerts released in 2006-2007 and for those targeted to financial holding companies, and weakly significant for firms listed in the US. We derive and validate these results using a combination of event study, subsampling analysis, and cross-sectional regression analysis. Our research makes a contribution by providing a new model for conducting multi-country event studies. We also contribute to the information systems literature by quantifying the loss in market value caused by phishing, and provide compelling evidence to information security administrators of firms that urge them to adopt adequate countermeasures to prevent phishing attacks.
----------------------
Piracy and Music Sales: The Effects of an Anti-Piracy Law
Adrian Adermon & Che-Yuan Liang
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, September 2014, Pages 90–106
Abstract:
The implementation of a copyright protection reform in Sweden in April 2009 suddenly increased the risk of being caught and punished for illegal file sharing. This paper investigates the impact of the reform on illegal file sharing and music sales using a difference-in-differences approach with Norway and Finland as control groups. We find that the reform decreased Internet traffic by 16% and increased music sales by 36% during the first six months. Pirated music therefore seems to be a strong substitute to legal music. However, the reform effects disappeared almost completely after six months, likely because of the weak enforcement of the law.
----------------------
Race, Neighborhood, and Drug Court Graduation
Daniel Howard
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
This research examines the possibility that racial disparities in drug court graduation are attributable to individual-level employment or education or to neighborhood-level disadvantage. Individual-level data on 455 drug court clients and neighborhood-level census and police incident data are joined geographically. Drug court graduation is modeled using multilevel logistic regression. In a model with no neighborhood-level indicators, client race, employment, and education all predicted drug court graduation. When neighborhood-level variables are introduced, client-level race drops from significance but employment and education remain significant predictors of graduation. Client race, then, appears to be an indirect indicator of neighborhood disadvantage, while client employment and education remain important individual-level predictors of drug court graduation. These results support further analysis of neighborhood-based barriers to drug court graduation and the development of drug court programming that can address neighborhood-based challenges.
----------------------
Julie Hibdon & Elizabeth Groff
Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, May 2014, Pages 169-185
Abstract:
Geographically targeting law enforcement at drug hot spots is a common response to drug problems, but because they are generated with police data, they only reflect what the police already know about narcotics crime. In this study, we illustrate the importance of using multiple data sets to characterize the micro-spatial distribution of illicit drug events in Seattle, Washington, by examining and comparing the Seattle Fire Department’s Emergency Medical Services (EMS) calls and Seattle Police Department’s crime incidents in 2004. We find that both EMS calls and police incidents indicate illicit drug use is concentrated at a small number of street segments, yet their spatial patterning is different. Together, the two data sources identify new street segments as “hot places” of drug use suggesting that law enforcement agencies should incorporate EMS data to more accurately locate drug hot spots.
----------------------
Organizational Structure, Police Activity and Crime
Itai Ater, Yehonatan Givati & Oren Rigbi
Journal of Public Economics, July 2014, Pages 62–71
Abstract:
We examine the consequences of an organizational reform in Israel that transferred the responsibility for housing arrestees from the Police to the Prison Authority. Using the staggered rollout of the reform in different regions of the country, we document strong evidence that this organizational change led to an increase of 11 percent in the number of arrests and to a decrease of 4 percent in the number of reported crimes, with these effects concentrated in more minor crimes. The reform also led to a decrease in the quality of arrests, measured by the likelihood of being charged following an arrest. These findings are consistent with the idea that the reform externalized the cost of housing arrestees from the Police’s perspective, and therefore led the Police to increase its activity against crime.