Expecting
Do highly educated women choose smaller families?
Moshe Hazan & Hosny Zoabi
Economic Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
We present evidence that the cross-sectional relationship between fertility and women's education in the U.S. has recently become U-shaped. The number of hours women work has concurrently increased with their education. In our model, raising children and homemaking require parents’ time, which could be substituted by services such as childcare and housekeeping. By substituting their own time for market services to raise children and run their households, highly educated women are able to have more children and work longer hours. We find that the change in the relative cost of childcare accounts for the emergence of this new pattern.
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Race, Restrictive State Abortion Laws and Abortion Demand
Marshall Medoff
Review of Black Political Economy, June 2014, Pages 225-240
Abstract:
A disproportionately large number of abortions are performed on black and Hispanic women. This study empirically investigates whether restrictive state abortion laws differentially affect the abortion demand of white, black and Hispanic women for the year 2005. A state Medicaid abortion funding restriction significantly decreases the abortion rate of all three races. However, Hispanic women’s abortion demand is more sensitive to a Medicaid funding restriction than either white women or black women. Parental involvement laws and mandatory counseling laws have no significant impact on the abortion rates of the three racial groups. Two-visit laws are associated with a significant decrease in the abortion rate of white women, but have no significant effect on the abortion rates of black and Hispanic women.
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The Effects of Contraception on Female Poverty
Stephanie Browne & Sara LaLumia
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
Poverty rates are particularly high among households headed by single women, and childbirth is often the event preceding these households’ poverty spells. This paper examines the relationship between legal access to the birth control pill and female poverty. We rely on exogenous cross-state variation in the year in which oral contraception became legally available to young, single women. Using census data from 1960 to 1990, we find that having legal access to the birth control pill by age 20 significantly reduces the probability that a woman is subsequently in poverty. We estimate that early legal access to oral contraception reduces female poverty by 0.5 percentage points, even when controlling for completed education, employment status, and household composition.
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Welfare Reform and Immigrant Fertility
Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Susan Averett & Cynthia Bansak
San Diego State University Working Paper, April 2014
Abstract:
Immigration policy continues to be at the forefront of policy discussions, and the use of welfare benefits by immigrants has been hotly debated. In 1996, Congress enacted welfare reform legislation (PRWORA), which denied the use of most means-tested assistance to non-citizens and lowered immigrant welfare dramatically. While Federal legislation imposed strict restrictions on eligibility for non-citizens, a number of states allowed previously eligible women to continue to receive benefits similar to those before 1996, whereas others imposed the new Federal cutbacks. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) for the years 1994-2000, we examine whether immigrant women adjusted their childbearing in response to cutbacks in the generosity of welfare benefits at the state-level. Our findings suggest that non-citizen women, especially those of Hispanic origin, altered their fertility decisions in response to the legislation. In addition, they increased their labor force participation, possibly to obtain employer-sponsored benefits. Our results are robust to alternative definitions of our treatment and control groups and do not appear to be driven by pre-existing trends. Finally, we find no evidence that women who anticipated having children migrated to the more generous states. Overall, the results provide further evidence that immigrants respond to variation in state-level policies and provide insight into the potential impacts of comprehensive immigration reform, particularly the components related to the path to citizenship and access to public benefits.
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Steven Kogan et al.
Journal of Adolescent Health, forthcoming
Purpose: Early sexual onset and its consequences disproportionately affect African-American youth, particularly male youth. The dopamine receptor D4 gene (DRD4) has been linked to sexual activity and other forms of appetitive behavior, particularly for male youth and in combination with environmental factors (gene × environment [G × E] effects). The differential susceptibility perspective suggests that DRD4 may exert this effect by amplifying the effects of both positive and negative environments. We hypothesized that DRD4 status would amplify the influence of both positive and negative neighborhood environments on early sexual onset among male, but not female, African-Americans.
Methods: Hypotheses were tested with self-report, biospecimen, and census data from five prospective studies of male and female African-American youth in rural Georgia communities, N = 1,677. Early sexual onset was defined as intercourse before age 14.
Results: No significant G × E findings emerged for female youth. Male youth with a DRD4 long allele were more likely than those with two DRD4 short alleles to report early sexual onset in negative community environments and not to report early onset in positive community environments.
Conclusions: Dopaminergic regulation of adolescent sexual behaviors may operate differently by gender. DRD4 operated as an environmental amplification rather than a vulnerability factor.
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Does Fertility Behavior Spread among Friends?
Nicoletta Balbo & Nicola Barban
American Sociological Review, June 2014, Pages 412-431
Abstract:
By integrating insights from economic and sociological theories, this article investigates whether and through which mechanisms friends’ fertility behavior affects an individual’s transition to parenthood. By exploiting the survey design of the Add Health data, our strategy allows us to properly identify interaction effects and distinguish them from selection and contextual effects. We use a series of discrete-time event history models with random effects at the dyadic level. Results show that, net of confounding effects, a friend’s childbearing increases an individual’s risk of becoming a parent. We find a short-term, curvilinear effect: an individual’s risk of childbearing starts increasing after a friend’s childbearing, reaches its peak approximately two years later, and then decreases.
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Does the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) Increase Fertility Behavior?
Colin Cannonier
Journal of Labor Research, June 2014, Pages 105-132
Abstract:
The Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA), implemented in August 1993, grants job-protected leave to any employee satisfying the eligibility criteria. One of the provisions of the FMLA is to allow women to stay at home for a maximum period of 12 weeks to give care to the newborn. The effect of this legislation on the fertility response of eligible women has received little attention by researchers. This study analyzes whether the FMLA has influenced birth outcomes in the U.S. Specifically, I evaluate the effect of the FMLA by comparing the changes in the birth hazard profiles of women who became eligible for FMLA benefits such as maternity leave, to the changes in the control group who were not eligible for such leave. Using a discrete-time hazard model, results from the difference-in-differences estimation indicate that eligible women increase the probability of having a first and second birth by about 1.5 and 0.6 % per annum, respectively. Compared to other women, eligible women are giving birth to the first child a year earlier and about 8.5 months earlier for the second child.
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Sam Hyun Yoo, Karen Benjamin Guzzo & Sarah Hayford
Biodemography and Social Biology, Spring 2014, Pages 49-66
Abstract:
Ambivalence towards future pregnancy is common and may increase the risk of unprotected sex and unintended pregnancy. We propose that ambivalent attitudes toward pregnancy consist of subtypes that are differentially associated with contraceptive use. Using data from a nationally representative survey of unmarried young adults (N = 1,147), we constructed four categories of ambivalence based on attitudes toward a hypothetical pregnancy. Multivariate analyses examined characteristics of ambivalence and the association between ambivalence and contraceptive use. Approximately one third of sexually active unmarried young adults are ambivalent about pregnancy. Having positive ambivalence (important to avoid a pregnancy but would be happy if it occurred) is associated with age, gender, education, and Hispanic origin. Although ambivalence toward pregnancy is associated with lower contraceptive use, this is true only among women with negative ambivalence (not important to avoid a pregnancy but would be unhappy if a pregnancy occurred). Attitudes toward pregnancy are multifaceted, and a more nuanced understanding of women’s attitudes toward pregnancy can help target prevention programs and related policies for women at risk of unintended pregnancy.
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Prenatal maternal stress predicts autism traits in 6½ year-old children: Project Ice Storm
Deborah Walder et al.
Psychiatry Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Research implicates prenatal maternal stress (PNMS) as a risk factor for neurodevelopmental disorders; however few studies report PNMS effects on autism risk in offspring. We examined, prospectively, the degree to which objective and subjective elements of PNMS explained variance in autism-like traits among offspring, and tested moderating effects of sex and PNMS timing in utero. Subjects were 89 (46F/43M) children who were in utero during the 1998 Quebec Ice Storm. Soon after the storm, mothers completed questionnaires on objective exposure and subjective distress, and completed the Autism Spectrum Screening Questionnaire (ASSQ) for their children at age 6½. ASSQ scores were higher among boys than girls. Greater objective and subjective PNMS predicted higher ASSQ independent of potential confounds. An objective-by-subjective interaction suggested that when subjective PNMS was high, objective PNMS had little effect; whereas when subjective PNMS was low, objective PNMS strongly affected ASSQ scores. A timing-by-objective stress interaction suggested objective stress significantly affected ASSQ in first-trimester exposed children, though less so with later exposure. The final regression explained 43% of variance in ASSQ scores; the main effect of sex and the sex-by-PNMS interactions were not significant. Findings may help elucidate neurodevelopmental origins of non-clinical autism-like traits, from a dimensional perspective.
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Maternal nutrition at conception modulates DNA methylation of human metastable epialleles
Paula Dominguez-Salas et al.
Nature Communications, April 2014
Abstract:
In experimental animals, maternal diet during the periconceptional period influences the establishment of DNA methylation at metastable epialleles in the offspring, with permanent phenotypic consequences. Pronounced naturally occurring seasonal differences in the diet of rural Gambian women allowed us to test this in humans. We show that significant seasonal variations in methyl-donor nutrient intake of mothers around the time of conception influence 13 relevant plasma biomarkers. The level of several of these maternal biomarkers predicts increased/decreased methylation at metastable epialleles in DNA extracted from lymphocytes and hair follicles in infants postnatally. Our results demonstrate that maternal nutritional status during early pregnancy causes persistent and systemic epigenetic changes at human metastable epialleles.
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Semen quality, infertility and mortality in the USA
Michael Eisenberg et al.
Human Reproduction, forthcoming
Study question: What is the relationship between semen parameters and mortality in men evaluated for infertility?
Study design, size, duration: A study cohort was identified from two centers, each specializing in infertility care. In California, we identified men with data from 1994 to 2011 in the Stanford Reproductive Endocrinology and Infertility semen database. In Texas, we identified men with data from 1989 to 2009 contained in the andrology database at the Baylor College of Medicine Special Procedures Laboratory who were evaluated for infertility. Mortality was determined by data linkage to the National Death Index or Social Security Death Index. Comorbidity was estimated based on calculation of the Charlson Comorbidity Index or Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services-Hierarchical Condition Categories Model.
Main results and the role of chance: Compared with the general population, men evaluated for infertility had a lower risk of death with 69 deaths observed compared with 176.7 expected (Standardized mortality rate 0.39, 95% CI 0.30–0.49). When stratified by semen parameters, however, men with impaired semen parameters (i.e. male factor infertility) had significantly higher mortality rates compared with men with normal parameters (i.e. no male factor infertility). Low semen volume, sperm concentration, sperm motility, total sperm count and total motile sperm count were all associated with higher risk of death. In contrast, abnormal sperm morphology was not associated with mortality. While adjusting for current health status attenuated the association between semen parameters and mortality, men with two or more abnormal semen parameters still had a 2.3-fold higher risk of death compared with men with normal semen (95% CI 1.12–4.65).
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Maternal exposure to hurricane destruction and fetal mortality
Sammy Zahran et al.
Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, forthcoming
Background: The majority of research documenting the public health impacts of natural disasters focuses on the well-being of adults and their living children. Negative effects may also occur in the unborn, exposed to disaster stressors when critical organ systems are developing and when the consequences of exposure are large.
Methods: We exploit spatial and temporal variation in hurricane behaviour as a quasi-experimental design to assess whether fetal death is dose-responsive in the extent of hurricane damage. Data on births and fetal deaths are merged with Parish-level housing wreckage data. Fetal outcomes are regressed on housing wreckage adjusting for the maternal, fetal, placental and other risk factors. The average causal effect of maternal exposure to hurricane destruction is captured by difference-in-differences analyses.
Results: The adjusted odds of fetal death are 1.40 (1.07–1.83) and 2.37 (1.684–3.327) times higher in parishes suffering 10–50% and >50% wreckage to housing stock, respectively. For every 1% increase in the destruction of housing stock, we observe a 1.7% (1.1–2.4%) increase in fetal death. Of the 410 officially recorded fetal deaths in these parishes, between 117 and 205 may be attributable to hurricane destruction and postdisaster disorder. The estimated fetal death toll is 17.4–30.6% of the human death toll.
Conclusions: The destruction caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita imposed significant measurable losses in terms of fetal death. Postdisaster migratory dynamics suggest that the reported effects of maternal exposure to hurricane destruction on fetal death may be conservative.
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Economic Uncertainty, Parental Selection, and the Criminal Activity of the 'Children of the Wall'
Arnaud Chevalier & Olivier Marie
University of London Working Paper, November 2013
Abstract:
We explore the link between parental selection and criminality of children in a new context. After the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989, East Germany experienced a very large, but temporary, drop in birth rates mostly driven by economic uncertainty. We exploit this natural experiment in a differences-in-differences setup to first estimate that the children from these affected (smaller) cohorts are relatively much more likely to be criminally active. Using individual level data, we provide evidence that women who gave birth in at this period of uncertainty were negatively selected into fertility. Further investigation of the underlying mechanisms reveals that emotional attachment and intergenerational transmission of risk attitudes play important roles in the parental selection-crime of children relationship. Finally, results for siblings support a causal interpretation of our findings.
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Too old to have children? Lessons from natural fertility populations
Marinus Eijkemans et al.
Human Reproduction, June 2014, Pages 1304-1312
What is known already: The median age at last birth (ALB) for females is ∼40–41 years of age across a range of natural fertility populations. This suggests that there is a fairly universal pattern of age-related fertility decline. However, little is known about the distribution of female ALB and in the present era of modern birth control, it is impossible to assess the age-specific distribution of ALB. Reliable information is lacking that could benefit couples who envisage delaying childbearing.
Study design, size, duration: This study is a review of high-quality historical data sets of natural fertility populations in which the distributions of female age at last birth were analysed. The studies selected used a retrospective cohort design where women were followed as they age through their reproductive years.
Participants/materials, setting, methods: Using a common set of eligibility criteria, large data files of natural fertility populations were prepared such that the analysis could be performed in parallel across all populations. Data on the ALB and confounding variables are presented as box and whisker plots denoting the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentile distribution of the age at last birth for each population. The analysis includes the estimation of Kaplan–Meier curves for age at last birth of each population. The hazard curve for ALB was obtained by plotting the smoothed hazard curve of each population and taking the lowest hazard within a time period of at least 5 years. This lowest hazard curve was then transformed into a cumulative distribution function representing the composite curve of the end of biological fertility. This curve was based on the data from three of the six populations, having the lowest hazards of end of fertility.
Main results and the role of chance: We selected six natural fertility populations comprising 58 051 eligible women. While these populations represent different historical time periods, the distribution of the ages at last birth is remarkably similar. The curve denoting the end of fertility indicates that <3% of women had their last birth at age 20 years meaning that almost 98% were able to have at least one child thereafter. The cumulative curve for the end of fertility slowly increases from 4.5% at age 25 years, 7% at age 30 years, 12% at age 35 years and 20% at age 38 years. Thereafter, it rises rapidly to about 50% at age 41, almost 90% at age 45 years and approaching 100% at age 50 years.
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Announcement effects of health policy reforms: Evidence from the abolition of Austria’s baby bonus
Beatrice Brunner & Andreas Kuhn
European Journal of Health Economics, May 2014, Pages 373-388
Abstract:
We analyze the short-run fertility and health effects resulting from the early announcement of the abolition of the Austrian baby bonus in January 1997. The abolition of the benefit was publicly announced about 10 months in advance, creating the opportunity for prospective parents to (re-)schedule conceptions accordingly. We find robust evidence that, within the month before the abolition, about 8% more children were born as a result of (re-)scheduling conceptions. At the same time, there is no evidence that mothers deliberately manipulated the date of birth through medical intervention. We also find a substantial and significant increase in the fraction of birth complications, but no evidence for any resulting adverse effects on newborns’ health.
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Ming-Jen Lin & Elaine Liu
NBER Working Paper, May 2014
Abstract:
This paper tests whether in utero conditions affect long-run developmental outcomes using the 1918 influenza pandemic in Taiwan as a natural experiment. Combining several historical and current datasets, we find that cohorts in utero during the pandemic are shorter as children/adolescents and less educated compared to other birth cohorts. We also find that they are more likely to have serious health problems including kidney disease, circulatory and respiratory problems, and diabetes in old age. Despite possible positive selection on health outcomes due to high infant mortality rates during this period (18 percent), our paper finds a strong negative impact of in utero exposure to influenza.
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Universal coverage of IVF pays off
M.P. Vélez et al.
Human Reproduction, June 2014, Pages 1313-1319
Study question: What was the clinical and economic impact of universal coverage of IVF in Quebec, Canada, during the first calendar year of implementation of the public IVF programme?
Study design, size, duration: This prospective comparative cohort study involved 7364 IVF cycles performed in Quebec during 2009 and 2011 and included an economic analysis.
Participants/materials, setting, methods: IVF cycles performed in the five centres offering IVF treatment in Quebec during 2009, before implementation of the public IVF programme, were compared with cycles performed at the same centres during 2011, the first full calendar year following implementation of the programme. Data were obtained from the Canadian Assisted Reproductive Technologies Register (CARTR). Comparisons were made between the two periods in terms of utilization, pregnancy rates, multiple pregnancy rates and costs.
Main results and the role of chance: The number of IVF cycles performed in Quebec increased by 192% after the new policy was implemented. Elective single-embryo transfer was performed in 1.6% of the cycles during Period I (2009), and increased to 31.6% during Period II (2011) (P < 0.001). Although the clinical pregnancy rate per embryo transfer was lower in 2011 than in 2009 (24.9 versus 39.9%, P < 0.001), the multiple pregnancy rate was greatly reduced (6.4 versus 29.4%, P < 0.001). The public IVF programme increased government costs per IVF treatment cycle from CAD$3730 to CAD$4759. Despite increased costs per cycle, the efficiency defined by the cost per live birth, which factored in downstream health costs up to 1 year post delivery, decreased from CAD$49 517 to CAD$43 362 per baby conceived by either fresh and frozen cycles.