Dirty Process
The Long-run Effect of Air Pollution on Survival
Tatyana Deryugina & Julian Reif
NBER Working Paper, November 2023
Abstract:
Many environmental hazards produce health effects that take years to arise, but quasi-experimental studies typically measure outcomes and treatment over short time periods. We develop a new approach to overcome this challenge and use it to gauge the effect of exposure to air pollution on US life expectancy. Using changes in wind direction as an instrument for daily sulfur dioxide levels, we first characterize the short-run mortality effects of acute exposure during the time period 1972-1988. Exposure causes two distinct mortality patterns: a short-run mortality displacement effect, and a persistent accelerated aging effect. We then incorporate our estimates into a flexible health production model to quantify the lifelong effects of chronic air pollution exposure for a cohort born in 1972. Model calculations of the effect of chronic exposure on life expectancy are 7-8 times larger than the effect implied by simple extrapolation of our short-run empirical estimates. Ninety percent of the survival benefits accrue after the first fifty years of life, implying that most of the 1970 Clean Air Act's health benefits have yet to emerge for cohorts born after its passage.
Mortality risk from United States coal electricity generation
Lucas Henneman et al.
Science, 24 November 2023, Pages 941-946
Abstract:
Policy-makers seeking to limit the impact of coal electricity-generating units (EGUs, also known as power plants) on air quality and climate justify regulations by quantifying the health burden attributable to exposure from these sources. We defined “coal PM2.5” as fine particulate matter associated with coal EGU sulfur dioxide emissions and estimated annual exposure to coal PM2.5 from 480 EGUs in the US. We estimated the number of deaths attributable to coal PM2.5 from 1999 to 2020 using individual-level Medicare death records representing 650 million person-years. Exposure to coal PM2.5 was associated with 2.1 times greater mortality risk than exposure to PM2.5 from all sources. A total of 460,000 deaths were attributable to coal PM2.5, representing 25% of all PM2.5-related Medicare deaths before 2009 and 7% after 2012. Here, we quantify and visualize the contribution of individual EGUs to mortality.
Blood Pressure Effect of Traffic-Related Air Pollution: A Crossover Trial of In-Vehicle Filtration
Michael Young et al.
Annals of Internal Medicine, forthcoming
Setting: In-vehicle scripted commutes driven through traffic in Seattle, Washington, during 2014 to 2016.
Intervention: On 2 days, on-road air was entrained into the vehicle. On another day, the vehicle was equipped with high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filtration. Participants were blinded to the exposure and were randomly assigned to the sequence.
Results: Mean age was 29.7 years, predrive systolic blood pressure was 122.7 mm Hg, predrive diastolic blood pressure was 70.8 mm Hg, and drive duration was 122.3 minutes (IQR, 4 minutes). Filtration reduced particle count by 86%. Among persons with complete data (n = 13), at 1 hour, mean diastolic blood pressure, adjusted for predrive levels, order, and carryover, was 4.7 mm Hg higher (95% CI, 0.9 to 8.4 mm Hg) for unfiltered drives compared with filtered drives, and mean adjusted systolic blood pressure was 4.5 mm Hg higher (CI, −1.2 to 10.2 mm Hg). At 24 hours, adjusted mean diastolic blood pressure (unfiltered) was 3.8 mm Hg higher (CI, 0.02 to 7.5 mm Hg) and adjusted mean systolic blood pressure was 1.1 mm Hg higher (CI, −4.6 to 6.8 mm Hg). Adjusted mean CRAE (unfiltered) was 2.7 μm wider (CI, −1.5 to 6.8 μm).
Association of Antepartum and Postpartum Air Pollution Exposure With Postpartum Depression in Southern California
Yi Sun et al.
JAMA Network Open, October 2023
Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used data from Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) electronic health records and included women who had singleton live births at KPSC facilities between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2016. Data were analyzed between January 1 and May 10, 2023.
Exposures: Ambient air pollution exposures were assessed based on maternal residential addresses using monthly averages of particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM2.5), particulate matter less than or equal to 10 μm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from spatial interpolation of monitoring station measurements. Constituents of PM2.5 (sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic matter, and black carbon) were obtained from fine-resolution geoscience-derived models based on satellite, ground-based monitor, and chemical transport modeling data.
Results: The study included 340 679 participants (mean [SD] age, 30.05 [5.81] years), with 25 674 having PPD (7.54%). Increased risks for PPD were observed to be associated with per-IQR increases in antepartum and postpartum exposures to O3 (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.09; 95% CI, 1.06-1.12), PM10 (AOR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.04), and PM2.5 (AOR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1. 00-1.03) but not with NO2; PPD risks were mainly associated with PM2.5 organic matter and black carbon. Overall, a higher risk of PPD was associated with O3 during the entire pregnancy and postpartum periods and with PM exposure during the late pregnancy and postpartum periods.
Driving Labor Apart: Climate Policy Backlash in the American Auto Corridor
Alexander Gazmararian & Lewis Krashinsky
Princeton Working Paper, November 2023
Abstract:
What are the electoral effects of green industrial policy? We argue that uncertainty about the distribution of benefits can give rise to voter backlash. We examine automobile manufacturing, where politicians and unions have promised that communities vulnerable to the electric vehicle (EV) transition will gain from new investments. Leveraging a matched difference-in-differences design, we find that growing EV transition salience caused Republican presidential vote share to increase by three percentage points in counties that produce gasoline vehicle components as compared to those that manufacture other auto parts. There is no backlash in counties that have received EV investments. Interviews with autoworkers and union leadership show how uncertainty about the EV transition affected political information provided by local unions. This bottom-up information provision helps to explain the diverging political reactions of organized labor to structural economic transformations and sheds light on electoral responses to climate policy.
Lead exposure and student outcomes: A study of Flint schools
Jessica Sauve-Syed
Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper estimates the impacts of cumulative lead exposure on the short-run discipline and academic achievement of elementary school students. An exogenous, heterogeneous shock of lead-in-water levels within classrooms at Flint Community Schools provides the treatment variation used to focus on the understudied, short-run effects of lead on older children. At the mean level of classroom lead exposure disciplinary actions increased by 8 actions per grade within each school, and the share of students proficient in both math and reading declined. These results may help explain observed disparities in both behavior and academic achievement for underprivileged groups.
Commercial wind turbines and residential home values: New evidence from the universe of land-based wind projects in the United States
Eric Brunner et al.
Energy Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
We examine the impact of proximity to land-based commercial wind turbines on residential home values in the United States using data on the universe of commercial wind turbines and residential property transactions from 2005 to 2020. Using event study and difference-in-differences identification strategies we find that, on average, homes located within 1 mile of a commercial wind turbine experience approximately an 11% decline in value following the announcement of a new commercial wind energy project, relative to counterfactual homes located 3 to 5 miles away. Event study estimates also reveal important dynamics in the evolution of home values, with property values first declining following project announcement, and then recovering post project construction, with property value impacts becoming relatively small (∼2%) and statistically insignificant 9 years or more after project announcement (roughly 5 years after operation began). Homes located within 1–2 miles of a commercial wind turbine experience much smaller impacts and homes located farther than 2 miles away are unaffected. Our results are primarily driven by wind projects located in urban counties with populations greater than 250,000.
Ending extreme poverty has a negligible impact on global greenhouse gas emissions
Philip Wollburg, Stephane Hallegatte & Daniel Gerszon Mahler
Nature, 30 November 2023, Pages 982–986
Abstract:
Growing consumption is both necessary to end extreme poverty and one of the main drivers of greenhouse gas emissions, creating a potential tension between alleviating poverty and limiting global warming. Most poverty reduction has historically occurred because of economic growth, which means that reducing poverty entails increasing not only the consumption of people living in poverty but also the consumption of people with a higher income. Here we estimate the emissions associated with the economic growth needed to alleviate extreme poverty using the international poverty line of US $2.15 per day. Even with historical energy- and carbon-intensity patterns, the global emissions increase associated with alleviating extreme poverty is modest, at 2.37 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year or 4.9% of 2019 global emissions. Lower inequality, higher energy efficiency and decarbonization of energy can ease this tension further: assuming the best historical performance, the emissions for poverty alleviation in 2050 will be reduced by 90%. More ambitious poverty lines require more economic growth in more countries, which leads to notably higher emissions. The challenge to align the development and climate objectives of the world is not in reconciling extreme poverty alleviation with climate objectives but in providing sustainable middle-income standards of living.
The siren song of cicadas: Early-life pesticide exposure and later-life male mortality
Jason Fletcher & Hamid Noghanibehambari
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, January 2024
Abstract:
This paper studies the long-term effects of in-utero and early-life exposure to pesticide use on adulthood and old-age longevity. We use the cyclical emergence of cicadas in the eastern half of the United States as a shock that raises the pesticide use among tree crop growing farmlands. We implement a difference-in-difference framework and employ Social Security Administration death records over the years 1975–2005 linked to the complete count 1940 census. We find that males born in top-quartile tree-crop counties and exposed to a cicada event during fetal development and early-life live roughly 2.2 months shorted lives; those with direct farm exposure face a reduction of nearly a year. We provide empirical evidence to examine mortality selection before adulthood, endogenous fertility, and differential data linkage rates. Additional analyses suggests that reductions in education and income during adulthood are potential mechanisms of impact. Our findings add to our understanding of the relevance of early-life insults for old-age health and mortality.