Comparative advantage
Looking for Local Labor-Market Effects of NAFTA
Shushanik Hakobyan & John McLaren
Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using US Census data for 1990-2000, we estimate effects of NAFTA on US wages. We look for effects of the agreement by industry and by geography, measuring each industry's vulnerability to Mexican imports, and each locality's dependence on vulnerable industries. We find evidence of both effects, dramatically lowering wage growth for blue-collar workers in the most affected industries and localities (even for service-sector workers in affected localities, whose jobs do not compete with imports). These distributional effects are much larger than aggregate welfare effects estimated by other authors.
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An empirical analysis of trade-related redistribution and the political viability of free trade
James Lake & Daniel Millimet
Journal of International Economics, March 2016, Pages 156-178
Abstract:
Even if free trade creates net welfare gains for a country as a whole, the associated distributional implications can undermine the political viability of free trade. We show that trade-related redistribution - as presently constituted - modestly increases the political viability of free trade in the US. We do so by assessing the causal effect of expected redistribution associated with the US Trade Adjustment Assistance program on US Congressional voting behavior on eleven Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) between 2003 and 2011. We find that a one standard deviation increase in expected redistribution leads to an average increase in the probability of voting in favor of an FTA of 1.8 percentage points. Although this is a modest impact on average, we find significant heterogeneities; in particular, the effect is larger when a representative's constituents are more at risk or the representative faces greater re-election risk.
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Import Exposure and Human Capital Adjustment: Evidence from the U.S.
Andrew Greenland & John Lopresti
Journal of International Economics, May 2016, Pages 50-60
Abstract:
We exploit variation in exposure to Chinese import competition to identify the effect of trade-induced changes in labor market conditions on human capital accumulation in the U.S. from 1990 to 2007. We document large increases in U.S. high school graduation rates in the labor markets most affected by import competition. After controlling for established predictors of high school completion, demographic shifts, and coincident labor market changes unrelated to trade with China, we estimate that a movement from the 25th to the 75th percentile in Chinese import exposure led to an average increase in the graduation rate of 3.64 percentage points. Consistent with an environment in which students weigh increases in future earnings potential from further education against current labor market opportunities foregone, we find that growth in Chinese imports led to declines in wages for all educational groups, and reductions in employment for individuals without a high school degree both in absolute terms and relative to their more educated peers.
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Accounting for the New Gains from Trade Liberalization
Chang-Tai Hsieh et al.
NBER Working Paper, March 2016
Abstract:
We measure the "new" gains from trade reaped by Canada as a result of the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA). We think of the "new" gains from trade of a country as all welfare effects pertaining to changes in the set of firms serving that country as emphasized in the so-called "new" trade literature. To this end, we first develop an exact decomposition of the gains from trade which separates "traditional" and "new" gains. We then apply this decomposition using Canadian and US micro data and find that the "new" welfare effects of CUSFTA on Canada were negative.
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Resident Networks and Corporate Connections: Evidence from World War II Internment Camps
Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun & Christopher Malloy
Journal of Finance, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using customs and port authority data, we show that firms are significantly more likely to trade with countries that have a large resident population near their firm headquarters, and that these connected trades are their most valuable international trades. Using the formation of World War II Japanese internment camps to isolate exogenous shocks to local ethnic populations, we identify a causal link between local networks and firm trade. Firms are also more likely to acquire target firms, and report increased segment sales, in connected countries. Our results point to a surprisingly large role of immigrants as economic conduits for firms.
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Task Trade and the Wage Effects of Import Competition
Abigail Cooke, Thomas Kemney & David Rigby
U.S. Census Bureau Working Paper, January 2016
Abstract:
Do job characteristics modulate the relationship between import competition and the wages of workers who perform those jobs? This paper tests the claim that workers in occupations featuring highly routine tasks will be more vulnerable to low-wage country import competition. Using data from the US Census Bureau, we construct a pooled cross-section (1990, 2000, and 2007) of more than 1.6 million individuals linked to the establishment in which they work. Occupational measures of vulnerability to trade competition - routineness, analytic complexity, and interpersonal interaction on the job - are constructed using O*NET data. The linked employer-employee data allow us to model the effect of low-wage import competition on the wages of workers with different occupational characteristics. Our results show that low-wage country import competition is associated with lower wages for US workers holding jobs that are highly routine and less complex. For workers holding nonroutine and highly complex jobs, increased import competition is associated with higher wages. Finally, workers in occupations with the highest and lowest levels of interpersonal interaction see higher wages, while workers with medium-low levels of interpersonal interaction suffer lower wages with increased low-wage import competition. These findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for occupational characteristics to more fully understand the relationship between trade and wages, and suggest ways in which task trade vulnerable occupations can disadvantage workers even when their jobs remain onshore.
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Can Sports Promote Exports? The Role of Soccer Matches in International Trade
Andreas Hatzigeorgiou
Global Economy Journal, March 2016, Pages 1-32
Abstract:
Sports can help to increase foreign trade and promote global economic integration. Engaging in sports can provide visibility opportunities for countries and may spur the interest of firms as well as consumers in the respective foreign market. Sport could also help to infuse trust into cross-country business relationships. While previous studies have investigated the role of sport events on trade, this study analyzes whether countries can increase trade between them by engaging in sporting activities with each other. We use soccer, being the world's most popular sport, as an example when investigating this potential bilateral sport-trade link. Our empirical strategy builds on the fact that many soccer matches between countries' national teams are the result of a random drawing procedure. Thus, they are a possible source of exogenous variation. Using a gravity model framework, we test the proposed link for approximately 4,800 soccer matches that were played between 209 countries during the period 1995 through 2001. We also analyze the hypothesized underlying impact channel by estimating the impact on trade for goods that are likely to have different elasticity with respect to information and trust friction. The results are indicative of the hypothesis that countries that engage in sporting activities with each other enhance their bilateral trade. These results could have potentially interesting policy implications. Governments may want to consider actively promoting sporting activities together with countries with which they want to enhance their trade.
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Effects of US policy uncertainty on Swedish GDP growth
Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm
Empirical Economics, March 2016, Pages 443-462
Abstract:
In this paper, we study the effects of US policy uncertainty - measured as the policy uncertainty index of Baker et al. (Measuring economic policy uncertainty, 2013) - on Swedish GDP growth. Another source of spillovers of shocks to small open economies is thereby examined. We apply both Bayesian VAR models and spectral analysis to quarterly data from 1988 to 2013. Results show that increasing US policy uncertainty has significant negative effects on Swedish GDP growth. The effect seems to primarily stem from effects on investment growth and export growth. Our findings should prove useful to those who analyse and forecast the Swedish economy and potentially also other similar small open economies.
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Ivan Kandilov, Aslı Leblebicioğlu & Neviana Petkova
Journal of International Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We evaluate the effects of state-level banking deregulation that resulted in improved access to cheaper local finance on foreign firms investing in the U.S. We provide direct, micro-level evidence from U.S. inbound foreign direct investment transactions showing that interstate banking, but not intrastate branching, deregulation increased the number of transactions, reduced the average transaction value, and boosted overall investment by foreign multinationals. We also show that lower cost of local credit and greater local bank competition in each state, following the interstate banking deregulation, are potential mechanisms that stimulated FDI activity. Finally, we demonstrate that after the adoption of the interstate banking deregulation, both the number and the average value of transactions increased in industries that are more dependent on external finance relative to industries that are less dependent.
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Does Trade Credit Boost Firm Performance?
Dongya Li et al.
Economic Development and Cultural Change, April 2016, Pages 573-602
Abstract:
Some firms have achieved good performance in developing countries where the financial sector is far from established. One explanation in the literature is that these firms benefit from trade credit, a form of informal financing. Using a survey of firms in China conducted by the World Bank in early 2003, this article examines whether trade credit indeed boosts firm performance. Our ordinary least squares results show that trade credit is significantly and positively correlated with firm performance. However, using the instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity, we find that the statistical significance disappears. The results are robust to a series of robustness checks, casting doubt on the claim that trade credit boosts firm performance.
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Preferential Trade Agreements, Income Inequality, and Authoritarian Survival
Eric Chang & Wen-Chin Wu
Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper investigates the political and economic consequences of signing preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in authoritarian countries. Based on the Heckscher-Ohlin model of international trade and theories of inequality and regime transition, this paper argues that dictators sign PTAs as a means of consolidating their authoritarian rule. Specifically, PTAs help dictators reduce economic inequality by enriching poor laborers and thereby attenuating the threat of regime collapse. We support our theory with the data from seventy-odd authoritarian regimes from 1960 to 2006, and contribute to ongoing debates about the effects of both income inequality and economic globalization on autocratic resilience.