Changing your vote
Do Newspapers Matter? Short-Run and Long-Run Evidence From the Closure of The Cincinnati Post
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Miguel Garrido
Journal of Media Economics, Spring 2013, Pages 60-81
Abstract:
The Cincinnati Post published its last edition on New Year's Eve 2007, leaving the Cincinnati Enquirer as the only daily newspaper in the market. The next year, fewer candidates ran for municipal office in the Kentucky suburbs most reliant on the Post, incumbents became more likely to win reelection, and voter turnout and campaign spending fell. These changes happened even though the Enquirer at least temporarily increased its coverage of the Post's former strongholds. Voter turnout remained depressed through 2010, nearly three years after the Post closed, but the other effects diminished with time. The authors exploited a difference-in-differences strategy and the fact that the Post's closing date was fixed 30 years in advance to rule out some noncausal explanations for their results. Although their findings are statistically imprecise, they suggest that newspapers - even underdogs such as the Post, which had a circulation of just 27,000 when it closed - can have a substantial and measurable impact on public life.
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Angela Frederick
Journal of Women, Politics & Policy, Spring 2013, Pages 113-137
Abstract:
Gender and politics scholars have yet to recognize political leaders' "deciding to run" accounts as storytelling performances that draw from and contest dominant cultural discourses. In this article, I present findings from interviews I conducted with 33 women candidates in Texas, analyzing my subjects' "deciding to run" accounts as narratives that illuminate much about women's attempts to negotiate contradictions between dominant race-gender values and their drive for public office. I find that women tell quite different narratives about their decisions to run for office, with Black women and Latinas expressing more confidence and self-direction in their stories than white women. I also reveal that many of these stories contain complexities and contradictions that are not illuminated in survey research on candidate emergence.
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The Effects of House Bill 1355 on Voter Registration in Florida
Michael Herron & Daniel Smith
State Politics & Policy Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
In mid-2011, the Florida state legislature passed House Bill 1355 (HB 1355) and in so doing placed new regulations on community organizations that historically have helped eligible Floridians register to vote. Among the legal changes promulgated by this bill were new regulations on the operations of groups like the League of Women Voters and a new oath, warning of prison time and fines, that voter registration agents were required to sign. Such changes raised the implicit costs that eligible Florida citizens faced when registering to vote, and we show that voter registrations across the state in the second half of 2011 dropped precipitously compared with registrations in the second half of 2007. This pattern is evident among registrants in general, among registrants age 20 and younger, and among individuals who registered as Democrats. Outside of HB 1355, we know of no credible explanations for these results. Our findings thus show how restrictions on the way that third-party organizations register voters can have tangible effects on actual registrations. Given that registration prior to an election is a civic necessity in Florida and in many other states, such restrictions have the potential to affect electoral outcomes as well.
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Frontiers, Germs, and Nonconformist Voting
Michael Varnum
Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, July 2013, Pages 832-837
Abstract:
An emerging literature has documented differences in values and behavioral practices (including conformity) between frontiers (areas that were more recently settled) and areas with a longer history of settlement. However, so far there have been few tests of which mechanisms might contribute to the maintenance of such regional differences. The present study provides the first test of the hypothesis that differences in pathogen prevalence might underlie this regional variation. Specifically, the relationship between frontier settlement, pathogen prevalence, and nonconformist voting was explored. Date of statehood, a proxy for recency of settlement, was positively correlated with votes for third-party candidates, and this relationship was partially mediated by pathogen prevalence. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.
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Elbridge Gerry's Suspicions and the Presidential Election of 2012
Michael Rosin
PS: Political Science & Politics, July 2013, Pages 587-590
Abstract:
Defenders of the Electoral College frequently assert that victory in the Electoral College requires a winning candidate to "produce a coalition of states with wide and diverse interests" thereby producing "a broadly based electoral victory." These defenders never stop to consider the fact that in a close election the difference between the winning and losing coalition of states may depend on highly contingent factors. In a 2003 article in this journal Neubauer and Zeitlin demonstrated that George W. Bush's Electoral College victory in 2000 depended on the size of the House of Representatives. In this article I demonstrate that the outcome of the 2012 election could have depended on the 2012 Electoral College being based on the newly apportioned incoming House rather than the previously apportioned outgoing House. This is a statutory specification rather than a constitutional requirement. It could be changed by simple legislation. We have Elbridge Gerry's suspicions to thank for this statutory contingency!
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Identity and Engagement among Political Independents in America
Samara Klar
Political Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Political behavior among independents has been documented for decades, yet we are left with limited insight into their political engagement. What, if anything, motivates independents to engage in politics? In this study, I apply psychological theories of attitude importance to explain high variation in political-engagement levels among independents. Using two recent datasets, I find engagement levels are comparable across independents and partisans, yet predictors of their engagement differ substantially. Ideological strength predicts engagement for partisans - but not for independents. Instead, my data show that independents' engagement is best predicted by the importance they place on their independent identity. These data provide evidence that independence is a meaningful political identity and that identity importance is a key to explaining what motivates the independent voter to engage with politics.
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Presidential coattails: A closer look
Heather Stoll
Party Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article takes a closer look at how presidential elections affect the fragmentation of the legislative party system. It reviews the theory and conventional empirical modelling strategy; identifies some drawbacks to this strategy and suggests solutions; and then conducts an empirical investigation of the implications of this critique by combining replication data from Golder (2006) with new data on the key variables measuring the presidential coattails. Fortuitously, the literature's findings about the shadow cast by presidential elections, usually known as the presidential coattails, are relatively robust. However, important differences emerge on the margins, such as regarding the effect of midterm elections. Moreover, this article demonstrates that subsequent presidential elections, like concurrent and preceding ones, cast shadows, too. It also demonstrates that the conventional modelling strategy underestimates the presidential coattails.
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Jeremy Teigen
Armed Forces & Society, July 2013, Pages 415-433
Abstract:
An enduring assumption exists in the United States that past military service casts electoral candidates in a positive light. To demonstrate how voters understand candidates' military experiences, it is necessary to understand how their attitudes about a candidate change when exposed to biographic information. This study uses an experimental design to evaluate whether voters see candidates with a military background as better able to handle defense and security issues, are more capable leaders, and whether voters express higher affect toward veteran candidates. Using manipulated television advertising and handbills from an actual election, along with variation of the party information about the candidate, this study finds that voters are unmoved in their impressions of leadership and their affect toward a candidate with military experience. However, potential voters report markedly higher evaluations of candidates' ability to handle defense and security issues when exposed to the military cue, irrespective of party affiliation.
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Information at the Margin: Campaign Finance Disclosure Laws, Ballot Issues, and Voter Knowledge
David Primo
Election Law Journal, June 2013, Pages 114-129
Abstract:
All 24 states that permit voters to cast ballots directly on policy matters also require that contributions and expenditures on ballot issue campaigns be disclosed publicly. Scholars assert that information about the financial involvement of interest groups in ballot issue campaigns provides voters with valuable cues about how to vote on potentially complex and confusing issues. In this article, I argue that the proper way to assess the informational benefits of disclosure is to assess whether the information gleaned from disclosure reports is beneficial to voters at the margin, once other available information is taken into account. Using a survey experiment, I show that disclosure information provides few marginal benefits for voters, calling into question the informational rationale for disclosure laws.
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Mobilization and Voter Turnout: Should Canvassers Worry about the Weather?
Ryan Lamare
PS: Political Science & Politics, July 2013, Pages 580-586
Abstract:
This article melds a well-studied area of research (political mobilization effects on voter turnout) with a subject rarely discussed in political science (the effects of meteorological variability on mood, productivity, and fatigue) to argue that weather at the time of mobilization influences individual voters' turnout odds relative to other contacted voters. Using panel data totaling 39,769 registered voters contacted by unions across 14 months and five elections, quantitative analysis is used to measure the effects of temperature, seasonableness, and precipitation during contact on vote likelihood, controlling for known turnout influences. Results indicate that variations in all three weather conditions during contact affect vote odds. Mobilization effects are weaker as temperatures rise and weather becomes unseasonably hot; mobilization is also less successful as precipitation increases. Outcomes vary by contact type; door-to-door visits are more negatively influenced by hotter and less seasonable temperatures, whereas phone calls are more negatively affected by higher precipitation.
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The survival of the Democratic Party outside the South: An update and reassessment
Jonathan Knuckey
Party Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Partisan change outside of the South has not been studied as extensively as in the 11 states of the Old Confederacy. Given the partisan advantage that the Democratic Party enjoys outside of the South, understanding the dynamics of party support among non-southerners appears to be important to study in its own right - not just as a point of contrast to that of the South. The goal of this article is to update and expand on one of the few pieces of scholarship to probe the reasons for the survival of the Democratic Party outside of the South. Using data from the American National Election Studies, the article concurs with these findings, that the Democratic Party has been successful in maintaining support among low income whites outside the South. However, a class-based explanation offers a partial explanation for the Democratic advantage in party identification. Ideological realignment has also expanded the Democratic base among middle and high income liberals and moderates. Overall, the findings of the article suggest that the electoral prospects of the Democratic Party outside of the South should be favourable for some time to come. The Democratic Party has not just survived outside of the South, it has prospered, and this provides a decided advantage for the party in national elections.
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Electoral and Policy Consequences of Voter Turnout: Evidence from Compulsory Voting in Australia
Anthony Fowler
Quarterly Journal of Political Science, Spring 2013, Pages 159-182
Abstract:
Despite extensive research on voting, there is little evidence connecting turnout to tangible outcomes. Would election results and public policy be different if everyone voted? The adoption of compulsory voting in Australia provides a rare opportunity to address this question. First, I collect two novel data sources to assess the extent of turnout inequality in Australia before compulsory voting. Overwhelmingly, wealthy citizens voted more than their working-class counterparts. Next, exploiting the differential adoption of compulsory voting across states, I find that the policy increased voter turnout by 24 percentage points which in turn increased the vote shares and seat shares of the Labor Party by 7-10 percentage points. Finally, comparing across OECD countries, I find that Australia's adoption of compulsory voting significantly increased turnout and pension spending at the national level. Results suggest that democracies with voluntary voting do not represent the preferences of all citizens. Instead, increased voter turnout can dramatically alter election outcomes and resulting public policies.
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The Causal Effect of Compulsory Voting Laws on Turnout: Does Skill Matter?
Laura Jaitman
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, August 2013, Pages 79-93
Abstract:
A very important, yet unsettled, question is whether mandatory voting affects political participation. This paper exploits a natural experiment to assess the causal impact of compulsory voting on turnout and, more importantly, to test whether the impact is different across skill groups. I find that compulsory voting increases voter turnout by 18 percentage points (28%) and the increase is twice as much in the unskilled citizens than that in the skilled citizens. This study is the first to show, with rigorous empirical evidence, that compulsory voting laws are effective in reducing the skill/socioeconomic gap in political participation. Furthermore, by shaping the electorate, these laws have relevant consequences in terms of the economic policies applied.
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The Lingering Effect of Scandals in Congressional Elections: Incumbents, Challengers, and Voters
Rodrigo Praino, Daniel Stockemer & Vincent Moscardelli
Social Science Quarterly, forthcoming
Objective: We have two goals. First, we investigate both the short- and long-term electoral impact of involvement in scandals on reelection margins of incumbents in U.S. congressional elections. Second, we evaluate the impact of scandals on district-level turnout.
Methods: We model the impact of involvement in a political scandal on incumbents' electoral margins in the election cycle in which the scandal comes to light, as well as in future election cycles. We also model the impact of scandal on district-level turnout.
Results: Involvement in a scandal exerts not only an immediate, negative effect on incumbents' margins, but one that also lingers beyond the initial reelection cycle. Elections involving incumbents embroiled in scandals experience a small boost in turnout.
Conclusion: In tandem, these results implicate the mobilization of previous nonvoters intent on "throwing the bum out" as one mechanism through which incumbent vote share is depressed in scandal elections.
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Adopting, Adapting, and Opting Out: State Response to Federal Voting System Guidelines
Kathleen Hale & Mitchell Brown
Publius, Summer 2013, Pages 428-451
Abstract:
This article examines the state response to voluntary federal certification of electronic voluntary voting system guidelines (VVSGs) and current intergovernmental issues surrounding electronic voting systems across the country. Federal certification is not widespread, and most states have adapted modified methods of assuring system integrity or have opted out altogether. States that participate in VVSG have greater technological sophistication, higher levels of election administration professionalism, and are more likely to adopt touchscreen voting machines. Unlike other election administration reforms, VVSG does not appear to be linked to partisan political factors. Our findings have implications for understanding the limits of voluntary federal programs and the importance of technological capacity and professional human resources in American election administration.
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Do Audible Alerts Reduce Undervotes? Evidence from Illinois
Michael Miller
Election Law Journal, June 2013, Pages 162-178
Abstract:
In November of 2007, Illinois became the only state to require that voters casting optical scan ballots be alerted to undervotes via the emission of an audible beep and ballot "kickback" when they insert their ballot into the optical scanning machine. The 2010 Illinois General Primary was the first election for which the undervote alert was to be implemented. Yet, of 99 counties employing optical scanning technology, 12 did not upgrade their machines in time for the election, citing a shortage of time to do so. The uneven implementation of the Illinois undervote alert presents a unique opportunity to examine whether such an external stimulus is an effective deterrent of aggregate undervoting, within the context of a precinct-level panel study. I find little evidence that the audible alert affected undervote patterns in the 2010 General Primary election.
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What Voters Want: Reactions to Candidate Characteristics in a Survey Experiment
Rosie Campbell & Philip Cowley
Political Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
There has been extensive research into the extent to which voters utilise short cuts based on gender and race stereotypes when evaluating candidates, but relatively little is known about how they respond to other background characteristics. We compare the impact of candidates' sex, religion, age, education, occupation and location/residence through a survey experiment in which respondents rate two candidates based on short biographies. We find small differences in the ratings of candidates in response to sex, religion, age and education cues but more sizeable effects are apparent for the candidate's occupation and place of residence. Even once we introduce a control for political party into our experimental scenarios the effect of candidate's place of residence continues to have a sizeable impact on candidate evaluations. Our research suggests that students of electoral behaviour should pay attention to a wider range of candidate cues.