Birth marks
The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis
Matthias Doepke, Moshe Hazan & Yishay Maoz
Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
We argue that one major cause of the U.S. postwar baby boom was the rise in female labor supply during World War II. We develop a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous fertility and female labor force participation decisions. We use the model to assess the impact of the war on female labor supply and fertility in the decades following the war. For the war generation of women, the high demand for female labor brought about by mobilization leads to an increase in labor supply that persists after the war. As a result, younger women who reach adulthood in the 1950s face increased labor market competition, which impels them to exit the labor market and start having children earlier. The effect is amplified by the rise in taxes necessary to pay down wartime government debt. In our calibrated model, the war generates a substantial baby boom followed by a baby bust.
---------------------
Access to Emergency Contraception and its Impact on Fertility and Sexual Behavior
Karen Mulligan
Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Half of all pregnancies in the USA are unintended, suggesting a high incidence of either improper or nonuse of contraceptives. Emergency birth control (EBC) provides individuals with additional insurance against unplanned pregnancy in the presence of contraception failure. This study is the first to estimate the impact of switching EBC from prescription to nonprescription status in the USA on abortions and risky sexual behavior as measured by STD rates. Utilizing state-level variation in access to EBC, we find that providing individuals with over-the-counter access to EBC leads to increase STD rates and has no effect on abortion rates. Moreover, individual-level analysis using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth indicates that risky sexual behavior such as engaging in unprotected sex and number of sexual encounters increases as a result of over-the-counter access to EBC, which is consistent with the state-level STD findings.
---------------------
Nancy Krieger et al.
American Journal of Public Health, April 2015, Pages 680-682
Abstract:
US infant death rates for 1960 to 1980 declined most quickly in (1) 1970 to 1973 in states that legalized abortion in 1970, especially for infants in the lowest 3 income quintiles (annual percentage change = −11.6; 95% confidence interval = −18.7, −3.8), and (2) the mid-to-late 1960s, also in low-income quintiles, for both Black and White infants, albeit unrelated to abortion laws. These results imply that research is warranted on whether currently rising restrictions on abortions may be affecting infant mortality.
---------------------
Gender Roles and Medical Progress
Stefania Albanesi & Claudia Olivetti
Federal Reserve Working Paper, March 2015
Abstract:
Maternal mortality was the second-leading cause of death for women in childbearing years up until the mid-1930s in the United States. For each death, twenty times as many mothers were estimated to suffer pregnancy-related conditions, often leading to severe and prolonged disablement. Poor maternal health made it particularly hard for mothers to engage in market work. Between 1930 and 1960, there was a remarkable reduction in maternal mortality and morbidity, thanks to medical advances. We argue that these medical advances, by enabling women to reconcile work and motherhood, were essential for the joint rise in married women’s labor force participation and fertility over this period. We also show that the diffusion of infant formula played an important auxiliary role.
---------------------
Victor Lavy & Alexander Zablotsky
Journal of Public Economics, April 2015, Pages 105–121
Abstract:
This paper studies the effect of mothers' education on fertility in a mostly Muslim population with very low female labor force participation. We first show that a removal of travel restrictions on Israeli Arabs had raised female education and had almost no effect on male education. Next, we show that it lowered fertility rates among exposed women, which we interpret as an effect of female education on fertility. We rule out labor-force participation, age at marriage, marriage and divorce rates and spousal labor-force participation and earnings as confounding factors or as mechanisms but find that spousal education and children quality play a role in the fertility decline. We provide a variety of robustness tests that rule out other channels by which the removal of the travel restrictions could have affected fertility directly. These results are particularly interesting and important for the context of many Muslim countries with low rates of female labor force participation.
---------------------
Prenatal Sex Selection And Girls’ Well-Being: Evidence From India
Luojia Hu & Analía Schlosser
Economic Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
We study the impacts of prenatal sex selection on girls’ well-being in India. We show that high sex ratios at birth reflect the practice of prenatal sex selection and apply a triple difference strategy to examine whether changes in health outcomes of girls relative to boys within states and over time are systematically associated with changes in sex-ratios at birth. We find that an increase in prenatal sex selection leads to a reduction in girls’ malnutrition, in particular, underweight and wasting. We further explore various underlying channels linking between prenatal sex selection and girls’ outcomes.
---------------------
The human sex ratio from conception to birth
Steven Hecht Orzack et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
We describe the trajectory of the human sex ratio from conception to birth by analyzing data from (i) 3- to 6-d-old embryos, (ii) induced abortions, (iii) chorionic villus sampling, (iv) amniocentesis, and (v) fetal deaths and live births. Our dataset is the most comprehensive and largest ever assembled to estimate the sex ratio at conception and the sex ratio trajectory and is the first, to our knowledge, to include all of these types of data. Our estimate of the sex ratio at conception is 0.5 (proportion male), which contradicts the common claim that the sex ratio at conception is male-biased. The sex ratio among abnormal embryos is male-biased, and the sex ratio among normal embryos is female-biased. These biases are associated with the abnormal/normal state of the sex chromosomes and of chromosomes 15 and 17. The sex ratio may decrease in the first week or so after conception (due to excess male mortality); it then increases for at least 10–15 wk (due to excess female mortality), levels off after ∼20 wk, and declines slowly from 28 to 35 wk (due to excess male mortality). Total female mortality during pregnancy exceeds total male mortality. The unbiased sex ratio at conception, the increase in the sex ratio during the first trimester, and total mortality during pregnancy being greater for females are fundamental insights into early human development.
---------------------
Is education the best contraception: The case of teenage pregnancy in England?
Sourafel Girma & David Paton
Social Science & Medicine, April 2015, Pages 1–9
Abstract:
This paper examines potential explanations for recent declines in teenage pregnancy in England. We estimate panel data models of teenage conception, birth and abortion rates from regions in England. Although point estimates are consistent with the promotion of long acting reversible contraception (LARC) having a negative impact on teenage pregnancy rates, the effects are generally small and statistically insignificant. In contrast, improvements in educational achievement and, to a lesser extent, increases in the non-white proportion of the population are associated with large and statistically significant reductions in teenage pregnancy.
---------------------
John Nye & Melanie Meng Xue
George Mason University Working Paper, December 2014
Abstract:
We study why China suddenly exhibited a large surge in births -- a 50% increase in 2000 relative to 1999 -- in the 2000 Year of the Dragon by disaggregating birth rates at the city level. We define the dragon effect as a relative jump in birth rates compared to the trend. Prior to 2000, Asian nations with large numbers of ethnic Chinese -- but not China -- exhibited strong dragon year effects. We exploit the uneven economic growth of regions in China to understand the emergence of the dragon effect. We find that the dragon effect was most pronounced in rapidly developing cities having higher incomes, higher average education, and greater employment prospects as proxied by the share of non-local residents. Our main findings at the city level are supported by our micro-level analysis, where we show the dragon effect to be strongly correlated with educational attainment of family members and membership in a multi-generational household.
---------------------
Grazyna Jasienska et al.
Proceedings of the Royal Society: Biological Sciences, 22 March 2015
Abstract:
The alleles that are detrimental to health, especially in older age, are thought to persist in populations because they also confer some benefits for individuals (through antagonistic pleiotropy). The ApoE4 allele at the ApoE locus, encoding apolipoprotein E (ApoE), significantly increases risk of poor health, and yet it is present in many populations at relatively high frequencies. Why has it not been replaced by natural selection with the health-beneficial ApoE3 allele? ApoE is a major supplier of cholesterol precursor for the production of ovarian oestrogen and progesterone, thus ApoE has been suggested as the potential candidate gene that may cause variation in reproductive performance. Our results support this hypothesis showing that in 117 regularly menstruating women those with genotypes with at least one ApoE4 allele had significantly higher levels of mean luteal progesterone (144.21 pmol l−1) than women with genotypes without ApoE4 (120.49 pmol l−1), which indicates higher potential fertility. The hormonal profiles were based on daily data for entire menstrual cycles. We suggest that the finding of higher progesterone in women with ApoE4 allele could provide first strong evidence for an evolutionary mechanism of maintaining the ancestral and health-worsening ApoE4 allele in human populations.