Banana republic
Climato-economic habitats support patterns of human needs, stresses, and freedoms
Evert Van de Vliert
Behavioral and Brain Sciences, October 2013, Pages 465-480
Abstract:
This paper examines why fundamental freedoms are so unevenly distributed across the earth. Climato-economic theorizing proposes that humans adapt needs, stresses, and choices of goals, means, and outcomes to the livability of their habitat. The evolutionary process at work is one of collectively meeting climatic demands of cold winters or hot summers by using monetary resources. Freedom is expected to be lowest in poor populations threatened by demanding thermal climates, intermediate in populations comforted by undemanding temperate climates irrespective of income per head, and highest in rich populations challenged by demanding thermal climates. This core hypothesis is supported with new survey data across 85 countries and 15 Chinese provinces and with a reinterpretative review of results of prior studies comprising 174 countries and the 50 states in the United States. Empirical support covers freedom from want, freedom from fear, freedom of expression and participation, freedom from discrimination, and freedom to develop and realize one's human potential. Applying the theory to projections of temperature and income for 104 countries by 2112 forecasts that (a) poor populations in Asia, perhaps except Afghans and Pakistanis, will move up the international ladder of freedom, (b) poor populations in Africa will lose, rather than gain, relative levels of freedom unless climate protection and poverty reduction prevent this from happening, and (c) several rich populations will be challenged to defend current levels of freedom against worsening climato-economic livability.
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Fight the Youth: Youth Bulges and State Repression
Ragnhild Nordås & Christian Davenport
American Journal of Political Science, October 2013, Pages 926–940
Abstract:
It is generally acknowledged that large youth cohorts or “youth bulges” make countries more susceptible to antistate political violence. Thus, we assume that governments are forewarned about the political demographic threat that a youth bulge represents to the status quo and will attempt to preempt behavioral challenges by engaging in repression. A statistical analysis of the relationship between youth bulges and state repression from 1976 to 2000 confirms our expectation. Controlling for factors known to be associated with coercive state action, we find that governments facing a youth bulge are more repressive than other states. This relationship holds when controlling for, and running interactions with, levels of actual protest behavior. Youth bulges and other elements that may matter for preemptive state strategies should therefore be included in future empirical models of state repression.
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Jason Brownlee, Tarek Masoud & Andrew Reynolds
Journal of Democracy, October 2013, Pages 29-44
Abstract:
The Arab Spring startled all Arab autocrats but toppled few of them. We find there were no structural preconditions for popular uprisings, but two variables conditioned whether domestic opposition would succeed. First, oil wealth gave rulers the resources to preempt or repress dissent. Second, a precedent of hereditary succession signaled the loyalty of the coercive apparatus to the ruler. Consequently, mass revolts deposed incumbents in only the three non-oil rich, non-hereditary regimes of Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen. Where oil rents or hereditary rule prevailed, regimes violently suppressed peaceful protests (Bahrain, Syria) and only lost power through foreign-imposed regime change (Libya).
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American Federalism: How Well Does It Support Lady Liberty?
Richard Wagner
George Mason University Working Paper, October 2013
Abstract:
Democratic governments can be either national or federal in form. Whether the form of democracy matters, how it matters if, indeed, it does matter, and for whom it might matter are the types of questions this paper explores. Federalism is generally described as a pro-liberty form of government. Yet it is surely reasonable to wonder how the presence of two sources of political power within the same territory can be more favorable to liberty than when there is but a single source. It turns out that the pro-liberty quality of federalism is a possible but not a necessary feature of federalism. This essay explores this two-edged quality of federalism to discern more clearly the relation between federalism and liberty.
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Is Vote-buying Effective? Evidence from a Field Experiment in West Africa
Pedro Vicente
Economic Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
Vote-buying, i.e., cash-for-votes, happens frequently in many parts of the world. However, in the presence of secret ballots, there is no obvious way to enforce vote transactions. To infer effects of vote-buying on electoral behaviour, we designed and conducted a randomized field experiment during an election in Sao Tome and Principe. We follow a voter education campaign against vote-buying, using panel-survey measurements as well as disaggregated electoral results. Results show that the campaign reduced the influence of money offered on voting, decreased voter turnout, and favoured the incumbent. This evidence suggests that vote-buying increases participation and counteracts the incumbency advantage.
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Democracy in microstates: Why smallness does not produce a democratic political system
Wouter Veenendaal
Democratization, forthcoming
Abstract:
In recent decades, several scholars have pointed to a statistical correlation between population size and democracy. Whereas these studies have thus far failed to provide a satisfactory explanation of this link, more case-oriented and qualitative publications have primarily highlighted the democracy-undermining effects of smallness. According to such studies, the proclivity of microstates to democratic rule should be explained on the basis of other factors, which coincide with smallness. In the current article, the nature and quality of politics and democracy in the four microstates of San Marino, St Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, and Palau is analysed on the basis of interviews with local respondents. The results indicate that microstate politics is characterized by a disparity between formally democratic institutions and a more antidemocratic political reality, and that size therefore does not directly generate a democratic political system. Instead, for the four analysed microstates the variables of colonial history, geographical location, and international relations appear to have greater explanatory value. Precisely because microstate politics is all about interpersonal relations and informal dynamics, this article contends that qualitative research is the preferable approach for studying politics and democracy in microstates.
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Governing religion: The long-term effects of sacred financing
Bo Rothstein & Rasmus Broms
Journal of Institutional Economics, December 2013, Pages 469-490
Abstract:
The absence of democracy in the Arab–Muslim world is a ‘striking anomaly’ for democratization scholars. This cannot be seen as caused by religion as such, as there are now several democratic Muslim-majority states. Popular explanations such as values, culture, economic development, natural resources, or colonial legacy have been refuted. Based on Ostrom's approach regarding local groups’ ability to establish institutions for ‘governing the commons’, we present a novel explanation for this puzzle, based on historical variations in institutions for financing religion. In Northwestern Europe, religion and secular services managed by local religious institutions have been financed ‘from below’, creating local systems for semi-democratic representation, transparency, and accountability. In the Arab–Muslim region, religion and local secular services have been financed ‘from above’, by private foundations lacking systems for representation and accountability. It is thus not religion, but how religion has been financed, that explains lacking successful democratization in the Arab–Muslim world.
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Democracy and the Quality of the State
Francis Fukuyama
Journal of Democracy, October 2013, Pages 5-16
Abstract:
Why is it that some countries have been able to develop high-quality state administrations that deliver services to their populations with relative efficiency, while others are plagued by corruption, bloated or red-tape-ridden bureaucracies, and incompetence? And what is the relationship between the effectiveness of a state and democracy? Are the two mutually supportive, or is there a tension between good public administration and broad political participation? The experiences of the United States, Greece, and Italy suggest that the process of political development democratic expansion of the franchise, when it takes place in advance of state modernization, can lead to widespread clientelism. Conversely, authoritarian states that develop modern bureaucracies early on are often in a happier position once they democratize, since their states tend to be inoculated from the dangers of political colonization.
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Does International Election Observation Deter and Detect Fraud? Evidence from Russia
Max Bader & Hans Schmeets
Representation, forthcoming
Abstract:
It is widely taken for granted that international election observation deters and detects election fraud, but little evidence exists that supports this conventional wisdom. This article employs a unique dataset on the 2011 and 2012 election observation missions by the OSCE to the legislative and presidential elections in Russia, to assess the claim that international election observation deters and detects fraud. The findings suggest that observers may have deterred fraud to some degree during the observation of counting procedures but less so, if at all, during the observation of voting procedures, and that observers probably did not detect fraud to any significant degree during both voting and counting observations.
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Do Good Institutions Make Citizens Happy, or Do Happy Citizens Build Better Institutions?
Martin Rode
Journal of Happiness Studies, October 2013, Pages 1479-1505
Abstract:
Recent empirical investigations show that ‘good institutions’, in the form of democracy and economic freedom, are related to elevated scores of subjective well-being across countries. Most of these studies automatically assume that causality runs from formal institutions to happiness. None the less, an inverse relationship is also feasible and only a few authors have specifically analyzed this possibility. Furthermore, not much is known about the individual aspects of institutions that are valued by citizens, and how these preferences might change with the level of economic development. This paper contributes to closing these gaps, conducting ordinary least squares- and instrumental variable analysis as an empirical strategy. Results show that citizens in developing countries value the procedural aspects of democracy, access to sound money, and free trade, while citizens in developed countries only seem to value a comparatively well-functioning legal system and higher security of property rights. Findings indicate the existence of a causal channel from economic freedom to well-being, but can’t exclude a long run effect of intrinsic happiness on economic freedom through social capital.
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Climate Change and Civil Unrest: The Impact of Rapid-onset Disasters
Peter Nardulli, Buddy Peyton & Joseph Bajjalieh
Journal of Conflict Resolution, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article examines the destabilizing impact of rapid-onset, climate-related disasters. It uses a sample of storms and floods in conjunction with two intensity measures of civil unrest to examine two perspectives on human reactions to disasters (conflictual, cooperative). It also uses insights from the contentious politics literature to understand how emotions posited by the conflictual perspective are transformed into destabilizing acts. While the data show that mean levels of unrest are higher in the wake of disasters, the means poorly reflect the data: the vast majority of episodes do not show higher levels of unrest. Moreover, even when higher levels of unrest emerge, they are not a simple reflection of disaster's human impact; this underscores the importance of the transformational process. Thus, a preliminary model of political violence is investigated; it employs impact, process and institutional variables and it explains three-quarters of the variance in the intensity of violence.
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Peter Lorentzen
American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
While it is often assumed that authoritarian regimes inevitably fear and restrict media independence, permitting watchdog journalism can actually help such regimes maintain power by improving governance. Yet such a strategy risks facilitating a coordinated uprising if discontent is revealed to be widespread. A formal model shows that under some conditions, a regime optimally permits investigative reporting on lower-level officialdom, adjusting how much reporting is allowed depending on the level of underlying social tensions. This strategy yields many of the benefits of free media without risking overthrow. An extension shows why an increase in uncontrollable information, such as from the Internet, may result in a reduction in media freedom. The model sheds light on important aspects of China's media policy and its evolution and on authoritarian media control more broadly.
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Primetime Dispute Resolution: Reality TV Mediation Shows in China's “Harmonious Society”
Colin Hawes & Shuyu Kong
Law & Society Review, December 2013, Pages 739–770
Abstract:
Through a case study of reality TV mediation shows, this article joins the debate about the recent promotion of formal and informal mediation by the Chinese government, what some scholars have called a “turn against law” (Minzner 2011). We identify three converging reasons for the sudden popularity of mediation shows on Chinese primetime television: (1) the desire of TV producers to commercially exploit interpersonal conflicts without fanning the flames of social instability; (2) the demands of official censors for TV programming promoting a “harmonious society”; and (3) the requirement for courts and other government institutions to publicly demonstrate their support for mediation as the most “appropriate” method for resolving interpersonal and neighborhood disputes. Cases drawn from two top-rated mediation shows demonstrate how they privilege morality and “human feeling” (ganqing) over narrow application of the law. Such shows could be viewed merely as a form of propaganda, what Nader has called a “harmony ideology” — an attempt by the government to suppress the legitimate expression of social conflict. Yet while recognizing that further political, social, and legal reforms are necessary to address the root causes of social conflict in China, we conclude that TV mediation shows can help to educate viewers about the benefits and drawbacks of mediation for resolving certain narrow kinds of domestic and neighborhood disputes.
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Shalom Schwartz et al.
Political Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do the political values of the general public form a coherent system? What might be the source of coherence? We view political values as expressions, in the political domain, of more basic personal values. Basic personal values (e.g., security, achievement, benevolence, hedonism) are organized on a circular continuum that reflects their conflicting and compatible motivations. We theorize that this circular motivational structure also gives coherence to political values. We assess this theorizing with data from 15 countries, using eight core political values (e.g., free enterprise, law and order) and ten basic personal values. We specify the underlying basic values expected to promote or oppose each political value. We offer different hypotheses for the 12 non-communist and three post-communist countries studied, where the political context suggests different meanings of a basic or political value. Correlation and regression analyses support almost all hypotheses. Moreover, basic values account for substantially more variance in political values than age, gender, education, and income. Multidimensional scaling analyses demonstrate graphically how the circular motivational continuum of basic personal values structures relations among core political values. This study strengthens the assumption that individual differences in basic personal values play a critical role in political thought.
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Revolt on the Nile: Economic Shocks, Religion, and Political Power
Eric Chaney
Econometrica, September 2013, Pages 2033–2053
Abstract:
Using centuries of Nile flood data, I document that during deviant Nile floods, Egypt's highest-ranking religious authority was less likely to be replaced and relative allocations to religious structures increased. These findings are consistent with historical evidence that Nile shocks increased this authority's political influence by raising the probability he could coordinate a revolt. I find that the available data provide support for this interpretation and weigh against some of the most plausible alternatives. For example, I show that while Nile shocks increased historical references to social unrest, deviant floods did not increase a proxy for popular religiosity. Together, the results suggest an increase in the political power of religious leaders during periods of economic downturn.
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Giacomo De Luca, Anastasia Litina & Petros Sekeris
Journal of Comparative Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This research argues that in highly unequal societies, a rent-seeking and self-maximizing dictator may be supported by a fraction of the population, despite the absence of special benefits to these societal groups. Importantly, it is the stakes of the dictator in the economy, in the form of capital ownership, that drive the support of individuals. In highly unequal societies ruled by a capital-rich dictator endowed with the power to tax and appropriate at will, the elites will support dictatorial policies given that they can generate higher growth rates than the ones obtained under democracy. This support arises unconditionally to special benefits to the elites and despite the total absence of checks and balances on the dictator.
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Relational Repression in China: Using Social Ties to Demobilize Protesters
Yanhua Deng & Kevin O'Brien
China Quarterly, September 2013, Pages 533-552
Abstract:
Chinese local officials frequently employ relational repression to demobilize protesters. When popular action occurs, they investigate activists' social ties, locate individuals who might be willing to help stop the protest, assemble a work team and dispatch it to conduct thought work. Work team members are then expected to use their personal influence to persuade relatives, friends and fellow townspeople to stand down. Those who fail are subject to punishment, including suspension of salary, removal from office and prosecution. Relational repression sometimes works. When local authorities have considerable say over work team members and bonds with protesters are strong, relational repression can help demobilize protesters and halt popular action. Even if relational repression does not end a protest entirely, it can limit its length and scope by reducing tension at times of high strain and providing a channel for negotiation. Often, however, as in a 2005 environmental protest in Zhejiang, insufficiently tight ties and limited concern about consequences creates a commitment deficit, partly because thought workers recognize their ineffectiveness with many protesters and partly because they anticipate little or no punishment for failing to demobilize anyone other than a close relative. The practice and effectiveness of relational, “soft” repression in China casts light on how social ties can demobilize as well as mobilize contention and ways in which state and social power can be combined to serve state ends.
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Hunting corrupt officials online: The human flesh search engine and the search for justice in China
Li Gao & James Stanyer
Information, Communication & Society, forthcoming
Abstract:
While there is growing research on online politics in China some political uses of the Internet have tended to be overlooked. The focus of this article is on an emerging phenomenon in Chinese cyberspace, the human flesh search engine (HFSE), a term first used by the Chinese media to refer to the practice of online searching for people or ‘human hunting’. While existing examinations have focused on breaches of individual privacy by these so-called online ‘vigilantes’ this study focuses on the ability of HFSE to reveal norm transgressions by public officials and lead to their removal. In order to give readers a comprehensive overview of what an HFSE is, the first section of this article provides basic information about it. In the second part, 20 well-documented HFSE examples are listed to show their varying aims and then HFSEs which focus on local governments and officials are shown to highlight the political dimensions of HFSE. In the third section, four case studies of government/official-focused HFSE are explored in detail to show political HFSEs' internal processes and underlying mechanisms.
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Macroeconomic Consequences Of Terrorism In Pakistan
Zahra Malik & Khalid Zaman
Journal of Policy Modeling, November–December 2013, Pages 1103–1123
Abstract:
The objective of the study examines the macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan. The study evaluates the short- and long-run relationship between terrorism and economic factors over a period of 1975 to 2011. Both objectives have been achieved with the sophisticated econometrics techniques including cointegration theory, Granger causality test and variance decomposition, etc. The result reveals that macroeconomic factors i.e., population growth, price level, poverty and political instability cause the terrorism incidence in Pakistan. However, income inequality, unemployment and trade openness have no long-run relationship with the terrorism incidence in Pakistan. The study may conclude that, for some how, Pakistan's macroeconomic indicators have significant long-run equilibrium with terrorism incidence. The result of Granger causality indicates that except unemployment, all other macroeconomic indicators have unidirectional causality with terrorism incidence. Unemployment has a bi-directional causality with the terrorism incidence in Pakistan. The results of variance decomposition indicate that there exists statistically significant cointegration among macroeconomic factors and terrorism incidence in Pakistan. Among macroeconomic factors, changes in price level exert the largest influence on terrorism in Pakistan. Contrary, the influence of poverty seems relatively the least contribution level for changes in terrorism incidence in Pakistan.
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Tim Pawlowski, Paul Downward & Simona Rasciute
Sport Management Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
The sports industry is viewed as being of growing economic significance, reflected in its promotion in public policy. One specific aspect of this policy is to argue that investment in international sporting success creates pride from sporting success, which contributes to subjective well-being (SWB). However, though it has been argued that indicators of sporting success, such as the number of medals won at major sports events like the Olympics, act as a proxy for pride from sporting success, there have not been any direct tests of this hypothesis. Controlling for the impact of physical activity, attendance at sports events and other standard covariates, this paper addresses this hypothesis by focusing on a variable which directly measures pride felt from sporting success (Pride) by individuals. Because of the possibility that a latent characteristic such as nationalism, or overall national pride, might be linked to both Pride and SWB, i.e. an endogeneity problem is present, an instrumental variable technique is employed. The findings do not support the hypothesis that pride following from sporting success can contribute distinctly to SWB. Moreover, the hosting of events may be more important than success at them, a point suggested by the positive association between attendance at sporting events and SWB. As such the goals of public sector investment in both hosting major sports events as well as investment in sports development to achieve international sporting success are shown to be more distinct than implied in much of the policy announcements and require more careful scrutiny.