Bad data
Concealing campus sexual assault: An empirical examination
Corey Rayburn Yung
Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, February 2015, Pages 1-9
Abstract:
This study tests whether there is substantial undercounting of sexual assault by universities. It compares the sexual assault data submitted by universities while being audited for Clery Act violations with the data from years before and after such audits. If schools report higher rates of sexual assault during times of higher regulatory scrutiny (audits), then that result would support the conclusion that universities are failing to accurately tally incidents of sexual assault during other time periods. The study finds that university reports of sexual assault increase by approximately 44% during the audit period. After the audit is completed, the reported sexual assault rates drop to levels statistically indistinguishable from the preaudit time frame. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that the ordinary practice of universities is to undercount incidents of sexual assault. Only during periods in which schools are audited do they appear to offer a more complete picture of sexual assault levels on campus. Further, the data indicate that the audits have no long-term effect on the reported levels of sexual assault, as those crime rates return to previous levels after the audit is completed. This last finding is supported even in instances when fines are issued for noncompliance. The study tests for a similar result with the tracked crimes of aggravated assault, robbery, and burglary, but reported crimes show no statistically significant differences before, during, or after audits. The results of the study point toward 2 broader conclusions directly relevant to policymaking in this area. First, greater financial and personnel resources should be allocated commensurate with the severity of the problem and not based solely on university reports of sexual assault levels. Second, the frequency of auditing should be increased, and statutorily capped fines should be raised to deter transgressors from continuing to undercount sexual violence. The Campus Accountability and Safety Act, presently before Congress, provides an important step in that direction.
---------------------
Does Public Transit Spread Crime? Evidence from Temporary Rail Station Closures
David Phillips & Danielle Sandler
Regional Science and Urban Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We test whether public transit access affects crime using a novel identification strategy based on temporary, maintenance-related closures of stations in the Washington, DC rail transit system. The closures generate plausibly exogenous variation in transit access across space and time, allowing us to test the popular notion that crime can be facilitated by public transit. Closing one station reduces crime by 5% in the vicinity of stations on the same train line. Most of this effect remains after controlling for decreased ridership, indicating that a decrease in the availability of victims does not drive most of our results. We find suggestive evidence that crime falls more at stations that tend to import crime, i.e. stations where perpetrators are less likely to live. We also see larger decreases at stations on the same line when the transit authority closes stations that tend to export crime. These heterogeneous effects suggest that the response of perpetrators to increased transportation costs contributes to the decrease in crime.
---------------------
The militarization of local law enforcement: Is race a factor?
Olugbenga Ajilore
Applied Economics Letters, forthcoming
Abstract:
Recent events have placed a spotlight on the increasing militarization of local law enforcement. While ample anecdotal evidence suggests a link between race and the militarization of police, empirical analysis has yet to be performed. In this study, I find that, conditional on crime rate, the presence of a large African-American population is negatively correlated to police acquisition of mine-resistant ambush protected (MRAP) vehicles. Conversely, greater residential segregation is positively correlated to MRAP procurement. This result highlights the problem with growing segregation, in suburbs as well as urban centres, in the United States.
---------------------
Drug Markets, Travel Distance, and Violence: Testing a Typology
Lallen Johnson
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
The factors complicating our understanding of the drugs and violence nexus include the role of community structure and subculture, and situational features of market exchanges. Reuter and MacCoun contribute to the latter by highlighting a typology of market violence. Using distance as a proxy for social ties, the four-market category typology suggests that the mixing of buyers and sellers from various distances has implications for the amount of violence expected to occur within them. This research performs a partial test of that typology using 5 years of arrest and incident data from the Philadelphia Police Department. Multilevel models reveal that compared with markets with local buyers and sellers, those characterized by lengthier travel patterns have significantly higher counts of violent incidents.
---------------------
The Parolee–Parole Officer Relationship as a Mediator of Criminal Justice Outcomes
Brandy Blasko et al.
Criminal Justice and Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although psychotherapy literature identifies the client–therapist relationship as a key factor contributing to client outcomes, few studies have examined whether relationship quality among corrections populations and supervising officers influences outcomes. This is surprising given that many criminal justice intervention models include quality of the client–practitioner relationship. Parolees enrolled in a six-site randomized clinical trial, where they were assigned to a parole officer–therapist–client collaborative intervention designed to improve relationship quality (n = 253) or supervision as usual (n = 227), were asked to rate relationship quality with their supervising officer. Results showed parolees assigned to the intervention endorsed significantly higher relationship ratings and demonstrated a lower violation rate than those assigned to the control group. Ratings of the parolee–parole officer relationship mediated the relationship between study condition and outcomes; better perceived relationship quality was associated with fewer drug use days and violations during the follow-up period, regardless of the study condition. Findings are discussed as they pertain to supervision relationships.
---------------------
A Randomized Clinical Trial of Family Therapy in Juvenile Drug Court
Gayle Dakof et al.
Journal of Family Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
The objective of this article is to examine the effectiveness of 2 theoretically different treatments delivered in juvenile drug court — family therapy represented by multidimensional family therapy (MDFT) and group-based treatment represented by adolescent group therapy (AGT) — on offending and substance use. Intent-to-treat sample included 112 youth enrolled in juvenile drug court (primarily male [88%], and Hispanic [59%] or African American [35%]), average age 16.1 years, randomly assigned to either family therapy (n = 55) or group therapy (n = 57). Participants were assessed at baseline and 6, 12, 18 and 24 months following baseline. During the drug court phase, youth in both treatments showed significant reduction in delinquency (average d = .51), externalizing symptoms (average d = 2.32), rearrests (average d = 1.22), and substance use (average d = 4.42). During the 24-month follow-up, family therapy evidenced greater maintenance of treatment gains than group-based treatment for externalizing symptoms (d = 0.39), commission of serious crimes (d = .38), and felony arrests (d = .96). There was no significant difference between the treatments with respect to substance use or misdemeanor arrests. The results suggest that family therapy enhances juvenile drug court outcomes beyond what can be achieved with a nonfamily based treatment, especially with respect to what is arguably the primary objective of juvenile drug courts: reducing criminal behavior and rearrests. More research is needed on the effectiveness of juvenile drug courts generally and on whether treatment type and family involvement influence outcomes.
---------------------
A Prospective Examination of Whether Childhood Sexual Abuse Predicts Subsequent Sexual Offending
Cathy Spatz Widom & Christina Massey
JAMA Pediatrics, January 2015, e143357
Objective: To empirically examine the commonly held belief that sexually abused children grow up to become sexual offenders and specialize in sex crimes.
Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study and archival records check included cases and control individuals originally from a metropolitan county in the Midwest. Children with substantiated cases of physical and sexual abuse and neglect (aged 0-11 years) were matched with children without such histories on the basis of age, sex, race/ethnicity, and approximate family social class (908 cases and 667 control individuals). Both groups were followed up into adulthood (mean age, 51 years). The court cases were from 1967 to 1971; the follow-up extended to 2013.
Results: Overall, individuals with histories of childhood abuse and neglect were at increased risk for being arrested for a sex crime compared with control individuals (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.17; 95% CI, 1.38-3.40), controlling for age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Specifically, individuals with histories of physical abuse (AOR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.02-4.16) and neglect (AOR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.39-3.51) were at significantly increased risk for arrest for sex offenses, whereas for sexual abuse, the AOR (2.13; 95% CI, 0.83-5.47) did not reach significance. Physically abused and neglected males (not females) were at increased risk and physically abused males also had a higher mean number of sex crime arrests compared with control individuals. The results did not provide support for sex crime specialization.
Conclusions and Relevance: The widespread belief that sexually abused children are uniquely at risk to become sex offenders was not supported by prospective empirical evidence. These new findings suggest that early intervention programs should target children with histories of physical abuse and neglect. They also indicate that existing policies and practices specifically directed at future risk for sex offending for sexually abused children may warrant reevaluation.
---------------------
The Minimum Legal Drinking Age and Crime
Christopher Carpenter & Carlos Dobkin
Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We use variation from the Minimum Legal Drinking Age (MLDA) to estimate the causal effect of access to alcohol on crime. Using a census of arrests in California and a regression discontinuity design, we find that individuals just over age 21 are 5.9 percent more likely to be arrested than individuals just under 21. This increase is mostly due to assaults, alcohol-related offenses, and nuisance crimes. These results suggest that policies that restrict access to alcohol have the potential to substantially reduce crime.
---------------------
Christopher Sullivan & Jamie Newsome
Criminal Justice Studies, Winter 2015, Pages 61-83
Abstract:
The increased use of biosocial perspectives in criminological research has expanded the scope of factors considered in understanding the etiology of adolescent antisocial behavior. At the same time, its practical utility for preventive and remedial intervention has not been examined to the same degree. Using a large, nationally representative sample of youth (N = 2573) and a series of latent growth curve models, this study examines the relative utility of a psychosocial risk composite and genetic indicators (DRD2, DRD4, DAT1, 5-HTTLPR, MAO-A) in predicting the onset and later developmental patterns of adolescent and early adult delinquency and criminal behavior. The results show that the psychosocial risk composite measure has significant effects on the latent growth factors, while the main and interactive effects of the genetic indicators do not. The subsequent discussion considers the practical implications of these empirical findings in the context of extant research and pinpoints some possible future applications of this area of research. It also identifies some parallel cases of translational criminology that may serve as indications of how this research might inform policy and practice going forward.
---------------------
Do fewer guns lead to less crime? Evidence from Australia
Benjamin Taylor & Jing Li
International Review of Law and Economics, June 2015, Pages 72–78
Abstract:
The 1996 National Firearms Agreement (NFA) in Australia introduced strict gun control laws and facilitated the buyback of over 650,000 firearms. While several studies have investigated the effect of the NFA on firearm deaths, none has looked at its impact on crimes. In this paper we adopt the difference-in-difference identification approach to examine the impacts of the NFA on crimes. We find that one and two years after the NFA was enacted, there were significant decreases in armed robbery and attempted murder relative to sexual assault, with weaker evidence in relation to unarmed robbery.
---------------------
Russell Weaver
Applied Geography, February 2015, Pages 142–153
Abstract:
Social science literature suggests that neighborhood-based visual cues have substantive effects on individuals' littering behaviors. Experimental research on this topic typically alters the appearance of a selected public location, and then monitors changes in littering due to these tightly controlled esthetic changes. The general finding is that littering occurs more frequently in relatively disorderly settings. The current paper extends this work by testing whether or not the same finding holds in more “real life” situations, wherein the operative visual cues come directly from the environment rather than through experimental manipulation. Specifically, the paper empirically identifies two study sites that serve similar functions in their urban system, but that differ markedly in contextual features. At the first site (#1), visual cues include liquor stores, vacant structures, and a noisy interstate highway. Notable visual cues at site #2 are scenic vistas, well-maintained housing, and greenspaces. When the same quasi-natural littering experiment was conducted at both locations, the littering rate was significantly higher at site #1 compared to site #2 (after controlling for individual-level demographic attributes). This result adds value to the applied geography community, as it confirms that spatially-based attributes do influence individual behaviors in a manner consistent with controlled, comparatively acontextual experimental findings. Additionally, the results implicate policy strategies that might be useful for counteracting antisocial urban behavior.
---------------------
Marginal Structural Models: An Application to Incarceration and Marriage During Young Adulthood
Valerio Bacak & Edward Kennedy
Journal of Marriage and Family, February 2015, Pages 112–125
Abstract:
Advanced methods for panel data analysis are commonly used in research on family life and relationships, but the fundamental issue of simultaneous time-dependent confounding and mediation has received little attention. In this article the authors introduce inverse-probability-weighted estimation of marginal structural models, an approach to causal analysis that (unlike conventional regression modeling) appropriately adjusts for confounding variables on the causal pathway linking the treatment with the outcome. They discuss the need for marginal structural models in social science research and describe their estimation in detail. Substantively, the authors contribute to the ongoing debate on the effects of incarceration on marriage by applying a marginal structural model approach to panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (N = 4,781). In line with the increasing evidence on the collateral consequences of contact with the criminal justice system, the authors find that incarceration is associated with reduced chances of entering marriage.
---------------------
Wet Laws, Drinking Establishments, and Violent Crime
Mark Anderson, Benjamin Crost & Daniel Rees
University of Washington Working Paper, December 2014
Abstract:
Drawing on county-level data from Kansas for the period 1977-2011, we examine whether plausibly exogenous increases in the number of establishments licensed to sell alcohol by the drink are related to violent crime. During this period, 86 out of 105 counties in Kansas voted to legalize the sale of alcohol to the general public for on-premises consumption. We provide evidence that these counties experienced substantial increases in the total number of establishments with on-premises liquor licenses (e.g., bars and restaurants). Using legalization as an instrument, we show that a 10 percent increase in drinking establishments is associated with a 4 percent increase in violent crime. Reduced-form estimates suggest that legalizing the sale of alcohol to the general public for on-premises consumption is associated with an 11 percent increase in violent crime.
---------------------
Wrongful Convictions and the Punishment of Attempts
Murat Mungan
International Review of Law and Economics, June 2015, Pages 79–87
Abstract:
This article presents economic models of law enforcement where the punishment of attempts leads to an increased risk of wrongful convictions. Consideration of these risks weakens the case for punishing attempts. Specifically, attempts ought to be punished less frequently than suggested in previous literature, and even when the punishment of attempts is desirable, they typically ought to be punished less severely than accomplished crimes. Purely deterrence related rationales as well as rationales based on costs associated with wrongful convictions support this conclusion. The presence of wrongful conviction costs also implies that a degree of under-deterrence is optimal and that incomplete attempts ought to typically be punished less severely than complete attempts.
---------------------
The Effect of School Starting Age Policy on Crime: Evidence from U.S. Microdata
John McAdams
Economics of Education Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Does school starting age policy have an impact on the propensity of individuals to commit crime as adults? Using microdata from the U.S. Census, we find that a higher school starting age cutoff leads to lower rates of incarceration among both those directly affected by the laws and those only indirectly affected. However, the reduction in incarceration among those directly affected is smaller in magnitude, implying that the delay itself was harmful with respect to crime outcomes. These findings provide further support for early childhood interventions influencing future criminal activity.
---------------------
Organized Crime and Business Subsidies: Where Does The Money Go?
Guglielmo Barone & Gaia Narciso
Journal of Urban Economics, March 2015, Pages 98–110
Abstract:
Business support policies are widespread in advanced countries, to foster employment and productivity. This paper analyses the role of organized crime in the allocation of public subsidies to businesses. We assemble an innovative data set on the Italian mafia at municipality level and test whether mafia-ridden municipalities receive a disproportionally higher amount of funds. We exploit exogenous variation at municipality level to instrument mafia activity and show that the presence of organized crime positively affects the probability of obtaining funding and the amount of public funds. Organized crime is also found to lead to episodes of corruption in the public administration sector. A series of robustness checks confirms the above findings.
---------------------
Kevin Wright, Jillian Turanovic & Nancy Rodriguez
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Drawing from the inequality and crime, racial invariance, and Latino paradox literatures, the effects of inequality on youth reoffending are examined. Specifically, hierarchical logistic regression models are estimated to determine: (1) whether racial and ethnic inequality have similar contextual effects on the continued delinquent behavior of at-risk youth and (2) whether these effects are specific to black or Latino/a youth residing in Maricopa County, Arizona (N = 13,138). Findings suggest that racial inequality increases reoffending while ethnic inequality decreases reoffending. Additionally, Latino/a youth are less likely to reoffend in areas characterized by high income and racial inequality. Structural theories of crime should continue to account for the importance of culture and the resilient responses employed by Latinos/as living in criminogenic environments.