Bad apples
Griffin Edwards
Journal of Law and Economics, May 2014, Pages 321-348
Abstract:
The seminal ruling of Tarasoff v. Board of Regents of the Universities of California enacted a duty that required mental health providers to warn potential victims of any real threat to life made by a patient. Many have theorized that this required breach of confidentiality may have adverse effects on effective psychological treatment — but the issue remains unaddressed empirically. Because of the presence of duty-to-warn laws, patients might forgo mental health treatment that would prevent violence. Using a fixed-effects model and exploiting the variation in the timing and style of duty-to-warn laws across states, I find that mandatory duty-to-warn laws cause an increase in the homicide rate of .4, or 5 percent. These results are robust to model specifications and falsification tests and help to clarify the true effect of state duty-to-warn laws.
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Decriminalizing Indoor Prostitution: Implications for Sexual Violence and Public Health
Scott Cunningham & Manisha Shah
NBER Working Paper, July 2014
Abstract:
Most governments in the world including the United States prohibit prostitution. Given these types of laws rarely change and are fairly uniform across regions, our knowledge about the impact of decriminalizing sex work is largely conjectural. We exploit the fact that a Rhode Island District Court judge unexpectedly decriminalized indoor prostitution in 2003 to provide the first causal estimates of the impact of decriminalization on the composition of the sex market, rape offenses, and sexually transmitted infection outcomes. Not surprisingly, we find that decriminalization increased the size of the indoor market. However, we also find that decriminalization caused both forcible rape offenses and gonorrhea incidence to decline for the overall population. Our synthetic control model finds 824 fewer reported rape offenses (31 percent decrease) and 1,035 fewer cases of female gonorrhea (39 percent decrease) from 2004 to 2009.
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The Way of the Gun: Estimating Firearms Trafficking across the US–Mexico Border
Topher McDougal et al.
Journal of Economic Geography, forthcoming
Abstract:
The volume of firearms sold in USA and trafficked across the US–Mexico border is notoriously difficult to estimate. We consider a unique approach using GIS-generated county-level panel data (1993–1999 and 2010–2012) of Federal Firearms Licenses to sell small arms (FFLs) to estimate the realized demand for firearms based on the distance by road from the nearest point on the US–Mexico border. We use a time-series negative binomial model paired with a post-estimation population attributable fraction (PAF) estimator. We do so to control determinants of domestic demand. We are able to estimate a total demand for trafficking, both in terms of firearms and dollar sales for the firearms industry. We find that nearly 2.2% (between 0.9% and 3.7%) of US domestic arms sales are attributable to the US–Mexico traffic in the period 2010–2012, representing 212,887 firearms (between 89,816 and 359,205) purchased annually to be trafficked.
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Investigating the Effects of Furloughing Public School Teachers on Juvenile Crime in Hawaii
Randall Akee, Timothy Halliday & Sally Kwak
Economics of Education Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Policymakers have long been concerned about the large social costs of juvenile crime. Detecting the causes of juvenile crime is an important educational policy concern as many of these crimes happen during the school day. In the 2009-10 school year, the State of Hawaii responded to fiscal strains by furloughing all school teachers employed by the Department of Education and cancelling classes for seventeen instructional days. We examine the effects of these non-holiday school closure days to draw conclusions about the relationship between time in school and juvenile arrests in the State of Hawaii on the island of Oahu. We calculate marginal effects from a negative binomial model and find that time off from school is associated with significantly fewer juvenile assault and drug-related arrests, although there are no changes in other types of crimes, such as burglaries. The declines in arrests for assaults are the most pronounced in poorer regions of the island while the decline in drug-related arrests is larger in the relatively more prosperous regions.
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Do More Police Lead to More Crime Deterrence?
Gary Kleck & J.C. Barnes
Crime & Delinquency, August 2014, Pages 716-738
Abstract:
Does increasing police strength deter more crime? Some studies have found apparent negative effects of police manpower levels on crime rates, and the most common explanation of such findings is that greater police strength increases perceptions of arrest risk, thus reducing crime via general deterrence mechanisms. The authors directly tested this hypothesis by estimating the association between survey respondents’ perceptions of arrest risk and the level of police strength prevailing in the counties where they live. No relationship between the number of police officers per capita and perceptions of the risk of arrest was found, suggesting that increases in police manpower will not increase general deterrent effects and decreases will not reduce these effects. The authors also considered the possibility that police manpower levels influence the number of criminals incarcerated, and thus affect crime rates via the incapacitative effects of incarceration, but concluded that such an effect is unlikely. These findings point to a need to reconsider previous interpretations of findings as supportive of a deterrent effect of increased police manpower on crime rates.
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Impulsive versus premeditated aggression in the prediction of violent criminal recidivism
Marc Swogger et al.
Aggressive Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Past aggression is a potent predictor of future aggression and informs the prediction of violent criminal recidivism. However, aggression is a heterogeneous construct and different types of aggression may confer different levels of risk for future violence. In this prospective study of 91 adults in a pretrial diversion program, we examined (a) premeditated versus impulsive aggression in the prediction of violent recidivism during a one-year follow-up period, and (b) whether either type of aggression would have incremental validity in the prediction of violent recidivism after taking into account frequency of past general aggression. Findings indicate that premeditated, but not impulsive, aggression predicts violent recidivism. Moreover, premeditated aggression remained a predictor of recidivism even with general aggression frequency in the model. Results provide preliminary evidence that the assessment of premeditated aggression provides relevant information for the management of violent offenders.
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Security Versus Liberty in the Context of Counterterrorism: An Experimental Approach
Blake Garcia & Nehemia Geva
Terrorism and Political Violence, forthcoming
Abstract:
A critical question in counterterrorism studies concerns the extent to which governments adequately balance the continual provision of individual rights and freedoms with the appropriate level of national security when faced with a terrorist attack. We experimentally assess this tradeoff utilizing a 2 × 2 × 2 between-groups factorial design, manipulating (a) the extent of terror-related threats, (b) the level of invasiveness of subsequent counterterrorism policies, as well as (c) the terror context: transnational and domestic. The results provide evidence that the public is more willing to accept greater reductions in civil liberties under a greater threat of terrorism only when the perceived effectiveness of those policies to prevent future acts of terrorism is high. Furthermore, we find these results to be specific to the context of a transnational terror threat. This suggests that the public will be unwilling to accept reductions in civil liberties when the source of the attack is domestic, regardless of the level of threat or how effective subsequent policies may be in preventing future attacks.
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James Wo
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although theories posit that some types of local institutions will have a crime-producing influence in neighborhoods while others will have the opposite effect, the empirical evidence is far from conclusive. Previous studies are typically limited to analyzing cross-sectional data and one type of institution. Using longitudinal data of the number of employees of various institutions within census tracts across nine U.S. cities, the present study examines the longitudinal impact of four types of institutions on violent and property crime. Negative binomial regression models suggest that alcohol outlets and banking establishments increase criminal opportunities, whereas “third places” like coffee shops and cafes induce efficacious neighborhood control and social action. Civic and social organizations have no statistical relationship with crime.
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Extending the Effects of the Carceral State: Proximal Contact, Political Participation and Race
Hannah Walker
Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Rates of contact with the criminal justice system are geographically and racially sensitive such that some groups of people experience contact at much higher rates than others. The negative effects of personal contact with the criminal justice system are well documented. Less well understood are the effects of the criminal justice system on those who have not had personal contact but who are members of groups where contact is a common occurrence. This research explores the political effects of the carceral state for the second group, and finds that proximal contact mobilizes, an effect that is most pronounced for nonwhites.
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Person–Environment Interaction in a New Secure Forensic State Psychiatric Hospital
Jon Eggert et al.
Behavioral Sciences & the Law, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study examined the person–environment interaction effects of environmental design on ward climate, safety, job satisfaction, and treatment outcomes within a new high security forensic psychiatric facility. Participants included male and female adult psychiatric inpatients and staff members at different security stages. Data were collected once before and twice after the experimental group moved into the new building. The control group remained in the same facilities. Contrary to expectations, the new building had limited effects on the measured variables.
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Examining the neighborhood effects on police performance to assault calls
Abdullah Cihan
Police Practice and Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using agency-generated data collected from the Houston Police Department (HPD) and the 2000 census statistics, this article examines the relationship between police performance and neighborhood disorganization through an analysis of the distribution of police response to in-progress assault calls across different Houston neighborhoods. The results of multilevel analyses suggest that concentrated disadvantage, immigrant concentration, and residential stability are significantly related to the distribution of the HPD’s response time patterns. More specifically, police responses were quicker to in-progress assault calls in disorganized neighborhoods. The implications drawn from the current study’s results on police response time patterns can be useful in improving police service levels, the police–community relationship, and patrol strategies.
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Interactionist Labeling: Formal and Informal Labeling’s Effects on Juvenile Delinquency
Daniel Ryan Kavish & Christopher Mullins
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article critically reviews prior labeling theory research concerning juvenile delinquency and crime, and proposes a new study using a recent data set. The labeling perspective is outlined as it was originally presented, and the theoretical elaborations that have taken place since are highlighted. Distinctions are made between formally applied criminal justice labels and the informal labels that are applied by educational institutions, significant others, and parental figures. An interactionist labeling model is presented to explain levels of juvenile delinquency among a nationally representative sample of American adolescents: the first three waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Finally, negative binomial regression models are estimated to better explain the dynamic relationship between labels and delinquency. Consistent with labeling theory, formal labeling significantly increased future delinquency.
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Labeling Effects of First Juvenile Arrests: Secondary Deviance and Secondary Sanctioning
Akiva Liberman, David Kirk & Kideuk Kim
Criminology, forthcoming
Abstract:
A growing literature suggests that juvenile arrests perpetuate offending and increase the likelihood of future arrests. The effect on subsequent arrests is generally regarded as a product of the perpetuation of criminal offending. However, increased rearrest also may reflect differential law enforcement behavior. Using longitudinal data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN) together with official arrest records, the current study estimates the effects of first arrests on both reoffending and rearrest. Propensity score methods were used to control differences between arrestees and nonarrestees and to minimize selection bias. Among 1,249 PHDCN youths, 58 individuals were first arrested during the study period; 43 of these arrestees were successfully matched to 126 control cases that were equivalent on a broad set of individual, family, peer, and neighborhood factors. We find that first arrests increased the likelihood of both subsequent offending and subsequent arrest, through separate processes. The effects on rearrest are substantially greater and are largely independent of the effects on reoffending, which suggests that labels trigger “secondary sanctioning” processes distinct from secondary deviance processes. Attempts to ameliorate deleterious labeling effects should include efforts to dampen their escalating punitive effects on societal responses.
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Evaluating the Effect of State Regulation of Federally Licensed Firearm Dealers on Firearm Homicide
Nathan Irvin et al.
American Journal of Public Health, August 2014, Pages 1384-1386
Abstract:
Effective federal regulation of firearm dealers has proven difficult. Consequently, many states choose to implement their own regulations. We examined the impact of state-required licensing, record keeping of sales, allowable inspections, and mandatory theft reporting on firearm homicide from 1995 to 2010. We found that lower homicide rates were associated with states that required licensing and inspections. We concluded that firearm dealer regulations might be an effective harm reduction strategy for firearm homicide.
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Legal Cynicism and Parental Appraisals of Adolescent Violence
Brian Soller, Aubrey Jackson & Christopher Browning
British Journal of Criminology, July 2014, Pages 568-591
Abstract:
Research suggests that legal cynicism — a cultural frame in which the law is viewed as illegitimate and ineffective — encourages violence to maintain personal safety when legal recourse is unreliable. But no study has tested the impact of legal cynicism on appraisals of violence. Drawing from symbolic interaction theory and cultural sociology, we tested whether neighbourhood legal cynicism alters the extent to which parents appraise their children’s violence as indicative of aggressive or impulsive temperaments using data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods. We find that legal cynicism attenuates the positive association between adolescent violence and parental assessments of aggression and impulsivity. Our study advances the understanding of micro-level processes through which prevailing cultural frames in the neighbourhood shape violence appraisals.
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I Want Him Locked Up: Social Capital, African American Parenting Strategies, and the Juvenile Court
Joseph Richardson, Waldo Johnson & Christopher St. Vil
Journal of Contemporary Ethnography, August 2014, Pages 488-522
Abstract:
An impressive array of literature acknowledges the role of family members, friends, neighbors, and community institutions as rich resources of social capital which poor African American parents utilize in the collective socialization of their children. How parents access, mobilize, and deploy family and community-based social capital in resource-deprived communities for the social benefit of their children has been well documented. Yet, little is known about the challenges poor parents face raising troubled youth, particularly African American boys, when they are unable to generate social capital within their social network of family members, friends, neighbors, and community institutions to assist with raising their children. How do low-income African American parents raise troubled youth in disadvantaged communities when there are few resources of social support to draw upon? What strategies do parents use when they have exhausted and depleted their social capital? Drawing on three years of ethnographic field observations and multiple in-depth interviews with parents of pre-delinquent African American boys, this article examines how African American parents living in an impoverished African American community in New York City rely on the juvenile justice system, particularly juvenile confinement, as a parenting strategy. The findings suggest the need for alternatives to juvenile confinement and additional social support resources that can assist parents with parenting troubled youth.
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Offense Type and the Arrest Decision in Cases of Intimate Partner Violence
Alesha Durfee & Matthew Fetzer
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although previous research has examined arrests for intimate partner violence (IPV), most of these analyses focus exclusively on physical assault and intimidation. Research on arrests for sexual assault have examined arrests for cases of stranger and/or acquaintance sexual assault, but have not included sexual IPV. Using data from the 2010 National Incident-Based Reporting System, this analysis is the first to calculate and compare arrest rates for sexual IPV, physical IPV, and intimidation. Results indicate that after controlling for other factors, police are less likely to make an arrest in cases of sexual IPV than in cases of physical IPV or intimidation. These findings are discussed in the context of the consequences of sexual assault on IPV victims.
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Sonia Rubens et al.
Journal of Community Psychology, August 2014, Pages 723–734
Abstract:
Little is known about factors that account for the link between community violence exposure (CVE) and delinquency among adolescents. Sleep is one factor that warrants attention, given the poor sleep habits found among many adolescents and its relation to CVE and delinquent behaviors. Further, given the growing rate of Latino youth in the United States, and their risk for CVE, examining factors that account for this relation among Latino youth is essential for developing culturally sensitive interventions. This study evaluated whether sleep problems accounted for the link between CVE and delinquency among a sample of 144 Latino adolescents (54% male; ages 14–19 years). CVE and sleep problems were uniquely related to delinquency. Further, Meeker's test of indirect effects indicated that sleep problems partially accounted for the relation between CVE and delinquency. Interventions targeting sleep problems in Latino adolescents may aid in reducing delinquency among Latino adolescents, particularly for those with CVE.
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Representative Bureaucracy in Policing: Does It Increase Perceived Legitimacy?
Norma Riccucci, Gregg Van Ryzin & Cecilia Lavena
Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, July 2014, Pages 537-551
Abstract:
Drawing on the theory of representative bureaucracy, specifically the theory of symbolic representation, we examine whether or not gender representativeness in a police department’s domestic violence unit influences how citizens judge the agency’s performance, trustworthiness, and fairness. To examine this question, we use an online survey experiment in which we vary the representation of female police officers in a hypothetical domestic violence unit as well as the agency’s performance. Results suggest that gender representation does indeed influence the perceived job performance, trustworthiness, and fairness of the agency, as does the agency’s performance. Thus, this study suggests that the symbolic representativeness of the police does causally influence how citizens view and judge a law enforcement agency, and thus in turn perhaps their willingness to cooperate in the coproduction of public safety outcomes.
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Incidence and Cost of Sexual Violence in Iowa
Jingzhen Yang et al.
American Journal of Preventive Medicine, August 2014, Pages 198–202
Purpose: To estimate the incidence and costs of sexual violence in Iowa in 2009.
Methods: Using data obtained from population surveys, six Iowa government agencies, and other sources, we estimated sexual violence incidence, costs per incident, and total costs in 2009 dollars, by age and sexual violence category, and for various cost elements. We calculated direct costs of medical care, mental health care, property damage, victim services, investigation, adjudication, and sanctioning, as well as indirect costs for lost work and quality of life. We collected data in 2010–2011 and completed analysis in 2013.
Results: In 2009, an estimated 55,340 individuals experienced sexual violence in Iowa, including 49,510 adults and 5,930 children. Nearly three of every four victims were women. The estimated total cost of sexual violence in 2009 was $4.7 billion, equating to $1,580 per resident. This estimate included $4.44 billion in indirect costs and $265 million in direct costs. In the same year, the government spent an estimated $100.6 million as a result of sexual violence in Iowa, more than half of which ($55.3 million) was spent on perpetrators and little ($0.9 million) on prevention.
Conclusions: The economic costs of sexual violence are high for individuals and society. Cost information can help identify the burden of sexual violence relative to other social problems in Iowa and prioritize funding for prevention and intervention.
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Yan Zhang & Lening Zhang
Crime & Delinquency, August 2014, Pages 693-715
Abstract:
This article compares the effects of indeterminate and determinate sentencing models on recidivism using a measure of parole board discretionary release and mandatory parole release under each sentencing model. Data collected from Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1994: United States are used to conduct a state-specific comparison of the two release programs in six mixed-sentencing states. The results indicate that the effects of different sentencing models significantly vary across the six states. Whereas mandatory parole release was more likely to have a deterrent effect on recidivism in Maryland and Virginia, parole board discretionary release was more effective in New York and North Carolina. Release programs in Oregon and Texas showed no significant differences in their effects on recidivism.
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Richard Rosenfeld, Michael Deckard & Emily Blackburn
Criminology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Targeted policing has proven effective in reducing serious crime in areas where it is highly concentrated, but the enforcement mechanisms responsible for the success of so-called hot spots strategies remain poorly understood. This study evaluates the effects of a 9-month randomized controlled hot spots field experiment on firearm assaults and robberies in St. Louis, Missouri. Thirty-two firearm violence hot spots were randomly allocated to two treatment conditions and a control condition. Directed patrols were increased in both treatment conditions, whereas the experimental protocol limited other enforcement activity in one of the treatment conditions and increased it in the other. The results from difference-in-difference regression analyses indicate that the intervention substantially reduced the incidence of nondomestic firearm assaults, with no evident crime displacement to surrounding areas, to times when the intervention was not active, or to nonfirearm assaults. By contrast, we find no effects of the intervention on firearm robberies. Less definitive results suggest that the certainty of arrests and occupied vehicle checks account for the treatment effects on nondomestic firearm assaults.
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Denying humanness to victims: How gang members justify violent behavior
Emma Alleyne, Isabel Fernandes & Elizabeth Pritchard
Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, forthcoming
Abstract:
The high prevalence of violent offending amongst gang-involved youth has been established in the literature. Yet the underlying psychological mechanisms that enable youth to engage in such acts of violence remain unclear. One hundred eighty-nine young people were recruited from areas in London, UK, known for their gang activity. We found that gang members, in comparison to nongang youth, described the groups they belong to as having recognized leaders, specific rules and codes, initiation rituals, and special clothing. Gang members were also more likely than nongang youth to engage in violent behavior and endorse moral disengagement strategies (i.e., moral justification, euphemistic language, advantageous comparison, displacement of responsibility, attribution of blame, and dehumanization). Finally, we found that dehumanizing victims partially mediated the relationship between gang membership and violent behavior. These findings highlight the effects of groups at the individual level and an underlying psychological mechanism that explains, in part, how gang members engage in violence.
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Placing the Neighborhood Accessibility–Burglary Link in Social-Structural Context
Jeffrey Ward et al.
Crime & Delinquency, August 2014, Pages 739-763
Abstract:
Foundational research on the link between neighborhood accessibility and burglary has consistently shown a positive association. However, recent research has found that less accessible neighborhoods have higher burglary rates. Geographically referenced data from 401 neighborhoods in Jacksonville, Florida, are used to determine whether these inconsistencies can be explained by a conditioning effect of neighborhood social-structural context. Results from spatially lagged regression models indicate that neighborhood accessibility fails to have a direct effect on burglary rates after social-structural variables are controlled; rather, the effect of neighborhood accessibility on burglary rates is conditioned by the level of concentrated disadvantage of the neighborhood. Two potential explanations for the empirical findings are offered, and implications of the results for “designing out” crime are discussed.