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Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Arrivals and departures

 

The Making of Modern America: Migratory Flows in the Age of Mass Migration

Oriana Bandiera, Imran Rasul & Martina Viarengo
Journal of Development Economics, forthcoming

Abstract:
We provide new estimates of migrant flows into and out of America during the Age of Mass Migration at the turn of the twentieth century. Our analysis is based on a novel data set of administrative records covering the universe of 24 million migrants who entered Ellis Island, New York between 1892 and 1924. We use these records to measure inflows into New York, and then scale-up these figures to estimate migrant inflows into America as a whole. Combining these flow estimates with census data on the stock of foreign-born in America in 1900, 1910 and 1920, we conduct a demographic accounting exercise to estimate out-migration rates in aggregate and for each nationality-age-gender cohort. This exercise overturns common wisdom on two fronts. First, we estimate flows into the US to be 20% and 170% higher than stated in official statistics for the 1900-10 and 1910-20 decades, respectively. Second, once mortality is accounted for, we estimate out-migration rates from the US to be around .6 for the 1900-10 decade and around .75 for the 1910-20. These figures are over twice as high as official estimates for each decade. That migration was effectively a two-way flow between the US and the sending countries has major implications for understanding the potential selection of immigrants that chose to permanently reside in the US, their impact on Americans in labor markets, and institutional change in America and sending countries.

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Issue Voting and Immigration: Do Restrictionist Policies Cost Congressional Republicans Votes?

George Hawley
Social Science Quarterly, forthcoming

Objective: I test the hypothesis that Latino voters were less likely to support Republican incumbents with strong anti-immigration records in the 2006 congressional elections in comparison to Republicans with less restrictive records. I also test whether non-Hispanic white voters were similarly sensitive to incumbent immigration records when determining vote choice.

Method: To examine these questions, I created hierarchical models in which incumbent immigration records, individual views on immigration, and an interaction between the two were used to predict vote choice in the 2006 midterm elections. Individual-level data were provided by the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study and incumbent immigration records were provided by NumbersUSA.

Results: This analysis found little or no evidence suggesting that Latino voters are less likely to support Republican incumbents with anti-immigration records. There was evidence suggesting that vote choice among non-Hispanic whites was influenced by incumbent records on immigration, but the effect varied according to the respondent's own views on immigration.

Conclusion: This study found no evidence that incumbent Republicans could increase their share of the Latino vote by embracing less restrictive immigration policies. In fact, doing so may cost them votes among non-Hispanic whites.

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From Progressive Pioneer to Nativist Crackdown: The Transformation of Immigrant Policy in Oklahoma

Robert Turner & William Sharry
Politics & Policy, December 2012, Pages 983-1018

Abstract:
In the absence of comprehensive national immigration legislation, the debate over immigration has devolved to the states. Scholars have studied why states adopt punitive policies toward immigrants and why states differ in their treatment of immigrants. However, none has sought to analyze the transformation from an integration to a punitive policy regime. From 1996 to 2005, Oklahoma pursued an integration police regime designed to welcome immigrants and promote their social integration. In 2007, Oklahoma reversed its stance and has since pursued a punitive policy regime designed to make life difficult for unauthorized immigrants and to encourage them to leave. We contend that a longitudinal analysis of immigrant policy making within a single state provides a richer and more dynamic understanding of the interplay of state political institutions, societal interests, policy narratives, and the national political environment in making policy than analyzing the differences between states at a single point in time.

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Acculturating Contexts and Anglo Opposition to Immigration in the United States

Benjamin Newman
American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming

Abstract:
This article explores the impact of novel change in the ethnic composition of Americans' local context on their attitudes toward immigrants and immigration policy preferences. Adapting the "defended-neighborhoods hypothesis" regarding residential integration and black-white interracial relations to the context of immigration and intercultural relations, this article advances the acculturating-contexts hypothesis. This hypothesis argues that a large influx of an immigrant group will activate threat among white citizens when it occurs in local areas where the immigrant group had largely been absent. This theoretical argument is explored within the context of Hispanic immigration and tested using national survey and census data. This article demonstrates that over-time growth in local Hispanic populations triggers threat and opposition to immigration among whites residing in contexts with few initial Hispanics but reduces threat and opposition to immigration among whites residing in contexts with large preexisting Hispanic populations.

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The Multidimensionality of U.S. Immigration Reforms and Legislative Outcomes

Gyung-Ho Jeong
Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming

Abstract:
How are legislative outcomes shaped by multidimensional negotiations? Examining the legislative politics of U.S. immigration reforms, I show how alternating coalitions in multidimensional negotiations produce centrist legislative outcomes. In doing so, this article sheds light on a puzzling aspect of immigration policy - namely, the gap that exists between public opinion and legislative outcomes. My investigation of major immigration bills in 1986, 1996, and 2006 shows that the multidimensional nature of immigration debates contributed to the lack of dramatic reforms, by allowing legislative minorities to form alternating coalitions to block any dramatic changes.

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With a Little Help from Our Feds: Understanding State Immigration Enforcement Policy Adoption in American Federalism

Heather Creek & Stephen Yoder
Policy Studies Journal, November 2012, Pages 674-697

Abstract:
Since 2001, state governments have adopted 287(g) cooperative immigration enforcement agreements with the federal government that authorize their law enforcement personnel to assist in detaining violators of civil federal immigration law. Employing a theoretical framework drawn from theories of policy adoption, intergovernmental relations, and immigration research, we test which state-level political, sociodemographic, geographic, and economic determinants influence states to enter into such a cooperative agreement. In addition to finding that the partisanship of a state's governor, a state's effort on public welfare, and an increase in a state's percentage of Hispanics are related to the adoption of a cooperative immigration enforcement policy, we found evidence of "steam valve federalism" working not at the state level as Spiro (1997) first theorized but at the local level. When a state's localities adopt immigration enforcement agreements with the federal government, the state itself is far less likely to adopt their own. Understanding the reasons states would adopt this type of policy sheds light on current trends in state immigration policy and their effect on future state/federal intergovernmental relations.

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When Drains and Gains Coincide: Migration and International Football Performance

Ruxanda Berlinschi, Jeroen Schokkaert & Johan Swinnen
Labour Economics, forthcoming

Abstract:
We analyze the impact of human capital formation through migration on performance by studying the impact of football players' migration to foreign clubs on their origin countries' international football performance. In our model, migration to foreign clubs allows players to improve their skills. Its impact on national team performance is positive and increasing with the difference in quality between foreign and home country clubs. To test this prediction, we have collected information on the club of employment of national team players for most countries in the world. We have constructed an original migration index, weighing each emigrant player by the quality of the foreign club employing him. We find strong and robust support for the theoretical prediction that migration of national team players improves international football performance, particularly for countries with lower quality football clubs.

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The labor demand was downward sloping: Disentangling migrants' inflows and outflows, 1929-1957

Costanza Biavaschi
Economics Letters, forthcoming

Abstract:
This paper studies in- and out-migration from the U.S. during the first half of the twentieth century and assesses how these flows affected state-level labor markets. It shows that out-migration positively impacted the earnings growth of remaining workers, while in-migration had a negative impact. Hence, immigrant arrivals were substitutes of the existing workforce, while out-migration reduced the competitive pressure on labor markets.

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Crime and Immigration: Evidence from Large Immigrant Waves

Brian Bell, Francesco Fasani & Stephen Machin
Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming

Abstract:
This paper studies empirical connections between crime and immigration, studying two large waves of recent UK immigration (the late 1990s/early 2000s asylum seekers and the post 2004 inflow from EU accession countries). The first wave led to a modest, but significant, rise in property crime, whilst the second wave had a small negative impact. There was no effect on violent crime, nor were arrest rates different and changes in crime cannot be ascribed to crimes against immigrants. The findings are consistent with the notion that differences in labour market opportunities of different migrant groups shape their potential impact on crime.

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The Imperative of Place: Homicide and the New Latino Migration

Edward Shihadeh & Raymond Barranco
Sociological Quarterly, Winter 2013, Pages 81-104

Abstract:
Prior research finds that Latino immigration reduced violence. We argue that this is because they settled in traditional immigrant areas. But recent migrants settled in new destinations where the immigration-violence link is more complex. Contrary to previous findings, we observe that (1) Latino homicide victimization is higher in new destinations; (2) Latino immigration increases victimization rates, but only in new destinations and only for Latinos entering after 1990, when they fanned out to new destinations; and (3) Latino deprivation increases victimization only in new destinations because, we speculate, these new areas lack the protective social control umbrella of traditional destinations. Thus, the "Latino paradox" may be less useful than time-honored sociological frameworks for understanding the link between Latino immigration and violence.

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Latino School Concentration and Academic Performance among Latino Children

Jennifer Lee & Joshua Klugman
Social Science Quarterly, forthcoming

Objective: To examine the effects of the concentration of Latino students in elementary schools on Latino first graders' test scores, and to determine if the effects vary by children's nativity status.

Methods: We use generalized estimating equations (GEE) on a sample of Latino first graders from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Class of 1998 (ECLS-K).

Results: For math and reading, Latino concentration in schools improves students' first grade test scores for Latino children of immigrants, but it has no effect for Latino children of U.S.-born parents. For general knowledge test scores, Latino concentration has no effect for children of immigrants and has a deleterious impact on the scores of children of U.S.-born parents. We also show no effect of Latino concentration on the scores of white children of U.S.-born parents.

Conclusions: The results suggest that Latino concentration in elementary schools promotes educational outcomes for children from Latino immigrant families, but Latino families headed by U.S.-born parents do not benefit from coethnic concentration, which is in accordance with expectations derived from assimilation theories.

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A land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold: Do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad?

David McKenzie, John Gibson & Steven Stillman
Journal of Development Economics, forthcoming

Abstract:
Millions of people emigrate every year in search of better opportunities. Anecdotes of emigrants with over-optimistic expectations about the incomes they can earn abroad suggest excessive migration pressure. Yet there is almost no statistical evidence on how accurately emigrants predict the incomes that they will earn working abroad. In this paper, we combine a natural emigration experiment with unique survey data on would-be emigrants' probabilistic expectations about employment and incomes in the migration destination. Our procedure enables us to obtain moments and quantiles of the subjective distribution of expected earnings in the destination country. We find significant under-estimation of both unconditional and conditional labor earnings at all points in the distribution for males, but reasonably accurate expectations for females. This under-estimation appears driven in part by inaccurate information flows from extended family, by basing expectations on older cohorts, and by differences in the gender wage premium between source and origin countries.

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Undiagnosed Disease, Especially Diabetes, Casts Doubt On Some Of Reported Health ‘Advantage' Of Recent Mexican Immigrants

Silvia Helena Barcellos, Dana Goldman & James Smith
Health Affairs, December 2012, Pages 2727-2737

Abstract:
Newly arrived Mexican immigrants in the United States generally report better health than do native-born Americans, but this health advantage erodes over time. At issue is whether the advantage is illusory - a product of disease that goes undiagnosed in Mexico but is discovered after immigration. Using results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we compared clinical to self-reported diagnosed disease prevalence and found that Mexican immigrants are not as healthy as previously thought when undiagnosed disease is taken into account, particularly with respect to diabetes. About half of recent immigrants with diabetes were unaware that they had the disease -an undiagnosed prevalence that was 2.3 times higher than that among Mexican Americans with similar characteristics. Diagnosed prevalence was 47 percent lower among recent Mexican immigrants than among native-born Americans for both diabetes and hypertension, but undiagnosed disease explained one-third of this recent immigrant advantage for diabetes and one-fifth for hypertension. The remaining health advantage might be explained in part by immigrant selectivity - the notion that healthier people might be more likely to come to the United States. Lack of disease awareness is clearly a serious problem among recent Mexican immigrants. Since undiagnosed disease can have adverse health consequences, medical practice should emphasize disease detection among new arrivals as part of routine visits. Although we found little evidence that health insurance plays much of a role in preventing these diseases, we did find that having health insurance was an important factor in promoting awareness of both hypertension and diabetes.

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Are Migrants Going Up a Blind Alley? Economic Migration and Life Satisfaction around the World: Cross-National Evidence from Europe, North America and Australia

Analia Olgiati, Rocio Calvo & Lisa Berkman
Social Indicators Research, forthcoming

Abstract:
Are migrants satisfied with their decision to move to another country? Research shows that the income-wellbeing relationship is weak in wealthy countries, usually countries of destination. Are then economic migrants mistaken? Employing data from the Gallup World Poll, a representative sample of the world population, we investigate whether a general pattern of association exists between income and the cognitive component of subjective wellbeing, and whether this pattern differs by immigration status in 16 high-income countries. In only a handful of countries do we find a distinctive immigrant advantage in translating income into higher life evaluation or life satisfaction: Australia, Belgium, the Netherlands, Portugal and Sweden. For immigrants in most of these countries, income increases cognitive wellbeing even in the fifth income quintile. Depending on the measure used, immigrants in Canada, Denmark, Finland, Italy and the US only have positive income-wellbeing associations at or below the third quintile. We take this as evidence that, among recent arrivals, income is positively associated with wellbeing up to the point in which non-pecuniary factors associated with long-term residence become dominant. We also find a number of "frustrated achievers" among the foreign born in the US, France and Finland. These immigrants report a negative association, in absolute value, between income and life satisfaction or life evaluation.

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One Nation Under A Groove? Understanding National Identity

Andreas Georgiadis & Alan Manning
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, forthcoming

Abstract:
There is a lot of evidence that identity matters for behavior. There is a widespread belief that societies will function better if they manage to establish a common sense of identity among the population and contemporary fears in many countries that this common identity is threatened. This paper presents a simple framework for the determinants of identity and uses it to inform an empirical investigation of the correlates of national identity in Britain. Our main conclusions are that people who feel they are treated with respect and who feel tolerated are the most likely to identify with feeling part of Britain.

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Sectoral Economies, Economic Contexts, and Attitudes toward Immigration

Rafaela Dancygier & Michael Donnelly
Journal of Politics, forthcoming

Abstract:
Do economic considerations shape attitudes toward immigration? In this article, we consider the relationship between economic interests and immigration preferences by examining how developments in individuals' sectors of employment affect these views. Using survey data across European countries from 2002 to 2009 and employing new measures of industry-level exposure to immigration, we find that sectoral economies shape opinions about immigration. Individuals employed in growing sectors are more likely to support immigration than are those employed in shrinking sectors. Moreover, the economic context matters: making use of the exogenous shock to national economies represented by the 2008 financial crisis, we show that sector-level inflows of immigrant workers have little effect on preferences when economies are expanding, but that they dampen support for immigration when economic conditions deteriorate and confidence in the economy declines. These sectoral effects remain even when controlling for natives' views about the impact of immigration on the national economy and culture. When evaluating immigration policy, individuals thus appear to take into account whether their sector of employment benefits economically from immigration.

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The Devil Knows Best: Experimental Effects of a Televised Soap Opera on Latino Attitudes Toward Government and Support for the 2010 U.S. Census

Matthew Trujillo & Elizabeth Levy Paluck
Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, December 2012, Pages 113-132

Abstract:
Can a soap opera influence political attitudes and engagement among U.S. Latinos, particularly those perceiving a threat from immigration legislation? The extended contact hypothesis predicts that ingroup fictional characters can encourage positive affect and attitudes toward real-world groups and issues with which they are associated. We tested the impact of a Telemundo soap opera, Más Sabe El Diablo, which portrayed a Latino character's involvement with the 2010 Census. During the census-collection period and directly following the passage of Arizona's Senate Bill 1070 immigration act, we randomly assigned Latino participants in Arizona, Texas, and New Jersey to view (1) pro-census scenes or (2) control scenes featuring the character but not the census. Compared to control viewers, census viewers expressed more positive attitudes and less negative affect toward the U.S. government and more behavioral support for the census (wearing pro-census stickers and taking informational flyers). Affinity for the character was associated with stronger effects. The soap opera did not positively influence Arizona participants who were DIRECTLY affected by SB 1070.

By KEVIN LEWIS | 09:00:00 AM