Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Job numbers
The Great Reversal in the Demand for Skill and Cognitive Tasks
Paul Beaudry, David Green & Benjamin Sand
NBER Working Paper, March 2013
Abstract:
What explains the current low rate of employment in the US? While there has been substantial debate over this question in recent years, we believe that considerable added insight can be derived by focusing on changes in the labor market at the turn of the century. In particular, we argue that in about the year 2000, the demand for skill (or, more specifically, for cognitive tasks often associated with high educational skill) underwent a reversal. Many researchers have documented a strong, ongoing increase in the demand for skills in the decades leading up to 2000. In this paper, we document a decline in that demand in the years since 2000, even as the supply of high education workers continues to grow. We go on to show that, in response to this demand reversal, high-skilled workers have moved down the occupational ladder and have begun to perform jobs traditionally performed by lower-skilled workers. This de-skilling process, in turn, results in high-skilled workers pushing low-skilled workers even further down the occupational ladder and, to some degree, out of the labor force all together. In order to understand these patterns, we offer a simple extension to the standard skill biased technical change model that views cognitive tasks as a stock rather than a flow. We show how such a model can explain the trends in the data that we present, and offers a novel interpretation of the current employment situation in the US.
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Christopher Hsee et al.
Psychological Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
High productivity and high earning rates brought about by modern technologies make it possible for people to work less and enjoy more, yet many continue to work assiduously to earn more. Do people overearn - forgo leisure to work and earn beyond their needs? This question is understudied, partly because in real life, determining the right amount of earning and defining overearning are difficult. In this research, we introduced a minimalistic paradigm that allows researchers to study overearning in a controlled laboratory setting. Using this paradigm, we found that individuals do overearn, even at the cost of happiness, and that overearning is a result of mindless accumulation - a tendency to work and earn until feeling tired rather than until having enough. Supporting the mindless-accumulation notion, our results show, first, that individuals work about the same amount regardless of earning rates and hence are more likely to overearn when earning rates are high than when they are low, and second, that prompting individuals to consider the consequences of their earnings or denying them excessive earnings can disrupt mindless accumulation and enhance happiness.
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Martin Obschonka et al.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
In recent years the topic of entrepreneurship has become a major focus in the social sciences, with renewed interest in the links between personality and entrepreneurship. Taking a socioecological perspective to psychology, which emphasizes the role of social habitats and their interactions with mind and behavior, we investigated regional variation in and correlates of an entrepreneurship-prone Big Five profile. Specifically, we analyzed personality data collected from over half a million U.S. residents (N = 619,397) as well as public archival data on state-level entrepreneurial activity (i.e., business-creation and self-employment rates). Results revealed that an entrepreneurship-prone personality profile is regionally clustered. This geographical distribution corresponds to the pattern that can be observed when mapping entrepreneurial activity across the United States. Indeed, the state-level correlation (N = 51) between an entrepreneurial personality structure and entrepreneurial activity was positive in direction, substantial in magnitude, and robust even when controlling for regional economic prosperity. These correlations persisted at the level of U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (N = 15) and were replicated in independent German (N = 19,842; 14 regions) and British (N = 15,617; 12 regions) samples. In contrast to these profile-based analyses, an analysis linking the individual Big Five dimensions to regional measures of entrepreneurial activity did not yield consistent findings. Discussion focuses on the implications of these findings for interdisciplinary theory development and practical applications.
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Inefficient Hiring in Entry-Level Labor Markets
Amanda Pallais
NBER Working Paper, March 2013
Abstract:
Hiring inexperienced workers generates information about their abilities. If this information is public, workers obtain its benefits. If workers cannot compensate firms for hiring them, firms will hire too few inexperienced workers. I determine the effects of hiring workers and revealing more information about their abilities through a field experiment in an online marketplace. I hired 952 randomly-selected workers, giving them either detailed or coarse public evaluations. Both hiring workers and providing more detailed evaluations substantially improved workers' subsequent employment outcomes. Under plausible assumptions, the experiment's market-level benefits exceeded its cost, suggesting that some experimental workers had been inefficiently unemployed.
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Minimum Wage Increases in a Recessionary Environment
John Addison, McKinley Blackburn & Chad Cotti
Labour Economics, August 2013, Pages 30-39
Abstract:
Do seemingly large minimum-wage increases in an environment of deep recession produce clearer evidence of disemployment than is often observed in the modern minimum wage literature? This paper uses three data sets to examine the employment effects of the most recent increases in the U.S. minimum wage. We focus on two high-risk groups - restaurant-and-bar employees and teenagers - for the years 2005-2010. Although the evidence for a general disemployment effect is not uniform, estimates do suggest the presence of a negative minimum wage effect in states hardest hit by the recession.
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Manufacturing Decline, Housing Booms, and Non-Employment
Kerwin Kofi Charles, Erik Hurst & Matthew Notowidigdo
NBER Working Paper, April 2013
Abstract:
We assess the extent to which manufacturing decline and housing booms contributed to changes in U.S. non-employment during the 2000s. Using a local labor market design, we estimate that manufacturing decline significantly increased non-employment during 2000-2007, while local housing booms decreased non-employment by roughly the same magnitude. The effects of manufacturing decline persist through 2011, but we find no persistent non-employment effects of local housing booms, most plausibly because housing booms were associated with subsequent busts of similar magnitude. We also find that housing booms significantly reduce the likelihood that displaced manufacturing workers remain non-employed, suggesting that housing booms "mask" non-employment growth that would have otherwise occurred earlier in the absence of the booms. Applying our estimates to the national labor market, we find that housing booms reduced non-employment growth by roughly 30 percent during 2000-2007 and that roughly 40 percent of the aggregate increase in non-employment during 2000-2011 can be attributed to manufacturing decline. Collectively, our results suggest that much of the non-employment growth during the 2000s can be attributed to manufacturing decline and these effects would have appeared in aggregate statistics earlier had it not been for the large, temporary increases in housing demand.
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The Impact of Minimum Wages on Labour Market Transitions
Pierre Brochu & David Green
Economic Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
We investigate differences in labour market transition rates between high and low minimum wage regimes using Canadian data spanning 1979 to 2008. We find that higher minimum wages result in lower hiring rates but also lower job separation rates. Importantly, the reduced separation rates are due mainly to reductions in layoffs, occur in the first 6 months of a job, and are present for unskilled workers of all ages. Thus, jobs in higher minimum wage regimes are more stable but harder to get. For older workers, these effects are almost exactly offsetting, resulting in little impact on the employment rate.
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Local Deficits and Local Jobs: Can U.S. States Stabilize Their Own Economies?
Gerald Carlino & Robert Inman
NBER Working Paper, March 2013
Abstract:
Using a sample of the 48 mainland U.S. states for the period 1973-2009, we study the ability of U.S. states to expand own state employment through the use of state deficit policies. The analysis allows for the facts that U.S. states are part of a wider monetary and economic union with free factor mobility across all states and that state residents and firms may purchase goods from "neighboring" states. Those purchases may generate economic spillovers across neighbors. Estimates suggest that states can increase own state employment by increasing their own deficits. There is evidence of spillovers to employment in neighboring states defined by common cyclical patterns among state economies. For large states, aggregate spillovers to its economic neighbors are approximately two-thirds of own state job growth. Because of significant spillovers and possible incentives to free-ride, there is a potential case to actively coordinate (i.e., centralize) the management of stabilization policies. Finally, job effects of a temporary increase in state own deficits persist for at most one to two years and there is evidence of negative job effects when these deficits are scheduled for repayment.
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Spillovers from High-Skill Consumption to Low-Skill Labor Markets
Francesca Mazzolari & Giuseppe Ragusa
Review of Economics and Statistics, March 2013, Pages 74-86
Abstract:
The least-skilled workforce in the United States is disproportionally employed in the provision of time-intensive services that can be thought of as market substitutes for home production activities. At the same time, skilled workers, with their high opportunity cost of time, spend a larger fraction of their budget in these services. Given the skill asymmetry between consumers and providers in this market, product demand shifts - such as those arising when relative skilled wages increase - should boost relative labor demand for the least-skilled workforce. We estimate that this channel may explain one-third of the growth of employment of noncollege workers in low-skill services in the 1990s.
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Targeted Business Incentives and Local Labor Markets
Matthew Freedman
Journal of Human Resources, Spring 2013, Pages 311-344
Abstract:
This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to examine the effects of geographically targeted business incentives on local labor markets. Unlike elsewhere in the United States, enterprise zone (EZ) designations in Texas are determined in part by a cutoff rule based on census block group poverty rates. Exploiting this discontinuity as a source of quasi-experimental variation in investment and hiring incentives across areas, I find that EZ designation has a positive effect on resident employment, increasing opportunities mainly in lower-paying industries. While business sitings spurred by the program are more geographically diffuse, EZ designation is associated with increases in home values.
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House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
Manuel Adelino, Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino
NBER Working Paper, March 2013
Abstract:
This paper documents the role of the collateral lending channel to facilitate small business starts and self-employment in the period before the financial crisis of 2008. We document that between 2002 and 2007 areas with a bigger run up in house prices experienced a strong increase in employment in small businesses compared to employment in large firms in the same industries. This increase in small business employment was particularly pronounced in (1) industries that need little startup capital and can thus more easily be financed out of increases in housing as collateral; (2) manufacturing industries where goods are shipped over long distances, which rules out that local demand is driving the expansion. We show that this effect is separate from an aggregate demand channel that relies on home equity based borrowing leading to increased demand and employment creation.
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The Impact of Business Cycle Fluctuations on Graduate School Enrollment
Matthew Johnson
Economics of Education Review, June 2013, Pages 122-134
Abstract:
This paper adds to the understanding of student decisions about graduate school attendance by studying the magnitude of the effect of business cycle fluctuations on enrollment. I use data on graduate school enrollment from the Current Population Survey and statewide variation in unemployment rates across time to proxy for changes in business cycle conditions. I find that overall graduate school enrollment is countercyclical for females and acyclical for males. I show that changes in the unemployment rate have non-linear impacts on female enrollment and that poor labor market conditions lead to a substitution from full-time enrollment to part-time enrollment for both genders.
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Matthew Bidwell
Organization Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Recent declines in the average length of time that U.S. workers spend with a given employer represent an important change in the nature of the employment relationship, yet it is one whose causes are poorly understood. I explore those causes using Current Population Survey data on the tenure of men aged 30-65, from the years 1979-2008. I argue that long-term employment relationships primarily occur when workers pressure employers to close off employment from market competition, reducing the attractiveness of external mobility relative to internal opportunities and increasing employment security. I then explore how two changes in organizations' environments - a decline in union strength and increased turbulence from changes in technology and globalization - might have affected workers' ability to secure such closed employment relationships over the last 30 years. My results support the argument that declines in tenure reflect the reduced power of workers to secure closed employment relationships. Recent declines in tenure have been concentrated in large organizations, and many of those declines are explained by controlling for the changing levels of industry unionization. I find little evidence that foreign competition or technological change affected mobility. The results are robust to measures of changing industry growth rates and within-industry reorganization. Supplementary analyses suggest that layoffs are associated with different industry pressures than tenure and that voluntary mobility may have played an important role in declines in tenure.
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The Employment Effects of State Hiring Credits During and After the Great Recession
David Neumark & Diego Grijalva
NBER Working Paper, March 2013
Abstract:
State and federal policymakers grappling with the aftermath of the Great Recession have sought ways to spur job creation, in many cases adopting hiring credits to encourage employers to create new jobs. However, there is virtually no evidence on the effects of these kinds of counter-recessionary hiring credits - the only evidence coming from much earlier studies of the New Jobs Tax Credit from the 1970s. This paper provides evidence on the effect on job growth of hiring credits adopted during the Great Recession. For many of the types of hiring credits we examine we do not find positive effects on job growth. However, some specific types of hiring credits - including those targeting the unemployed and those that allow states to recapture credits when job creation goals are not met - appear to have succeeded in boosting job growth. At the same time, some credits appear to generate hiring without increasing employment or to generate much more hiring than net employment growth, consistent with these credits leading to churning of employees that raises the costs of producing jobs via hiring credits.
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Proprietorship and unemployment in the United States
Stephan Gohmann & Jose Fernandez
Journal of Business Venturing, forthcoming
Abstract:
Unemployment and proprietorship can be related in several ways. As unemployment increases, individuals with fewer job alternatives may choose to start their own business resulting in an increase in proprietorship. Alternatively, if an increase in unemployment is the result of a depressed economy, higher unemployment may lead to less demand for the products and services of proprietors, thus reducing proprietorship. Finally, greater proprietorship may lead to future increases in employment as these businesses grow. This can potentially reduce unemployment in the long run. We apply a panel vector autoregressive model to unemployment and proprietorship data from the U.S. states for the years 1976 to 2009 to examine if these effects are apparent in the data. We find that unemployment Granger causes proprietorship, but proprietorship does not Granger cause unemployment.
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The Growth of Low Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the U.S. Labor Market
David Autor & David Dorn
American Economic Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
We offer an integrated explanation and empirical analysis of the polarization of U.S. employment and wages between 1980 and 2005, and the concurrent growth of low skill service occupations. We attribute polarization to the interaction between consumer preferences, which favor variety over specialization, and the falling cost of automating routine, codifiable job tasks. Applying a spatial equilibrium model, we derive, test, and confirm four implications of this hypothesis. Local labor markets that were specialized in routine activities differentially adopted information technology, reallocated low skill labor into service occupations (employment polarization), experienced earnings growth at the tails of the distribution (wage polarization), and received inflows of skilled labor.
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The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market
Regis Barnichon & Christopher Nekarda
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2012, Pages 83-131
Abstract:
This paper presents a forecasting model of unemployment based on labor force flows data that, in real time, dramatically outperforms the Survey of Professional Forecasters, historical forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook, and basic time-series models. Our model's forecast has a root-mean-squared error about 30 percent below that of the next-best forecast in the near term and performs especially well surrounding large recessions and cyclical turning points. Further, because our model uses information on labor force flows that is likely not incorporated by other forecasts, a combined forecast including our model's forecast and the SPF forecast yields an improvement over the latter alone of about 35 percent for current-quarter forecasts, and 15 percent for next-quarter forecasts, as well as improvements at longer horizons.
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
May it please the court
Do Lawyers Really Believe Their Own Hype, and Should They? A Natural Experiment
Zev Eigen & Yair Listokin
Journal of Legal Studies, June 2012, Pages 239-267
Abstract:
Research suggests that attorneys are too confident in the merits of their clients' cases. But attorneys often self-select (1) the area of law in which they practice, (2) the side on which to practice within that area, (3) law firms with whom they practice, and (4) the clients they represent. We exploit a natural experiment involving participants in moot court competitions at four U.S. law schools over 2 years to explore whether, after stripping away these selection biases through random assignment to the role of petitioner or respondent, legal advocates are still overconfident in their clients' claims. We find that, following participation in moot court contests, students overwhelmingly perceive that the legal merits favor the side that they were randomly assigned to represent. We also find that overconfidence is associated with poorer performance in advocacy as measured by legal writing instructors.
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Symbol and Substance: Effects of California's Three Strikes Law on Felony Sentencing
John Sutton
Law & Society Review, March 2013, Pages 37-72
Abstract:
California's "three strikes and you're out" law is the most notorious example of the wave of mandatory sentencing policies that many states enacted beginning in the late 1970s. While advocates and critics predicted the law would have profound effects on aggregate punishment trends and individual case outcomes, Feeley and Kamin's analysis of previous sentencing reforms suggested the law's impact would be mainly symbolic because local officials would ignore, subvert, or nullify its major provisions. While aggregate analyses have tended to confirm this argument, so far there has been no systematic test of the law's effect on individual cases. This analysis uses multilevel models applied to case-level data from 12 urban California counties to test hypotheses about shifts in average punitiveness, the relative influence of legal and extralegal factors on sentencing, and the uncertainty of sentencing outcomes. Results mostly support Feeley and Kamin's symbolic interpretation, but also reveal important substantive impacts: since Three Strikes, sentences have become harsher, particularly in politically conservative counties, and black felons receive longer prison sentences.
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Hemant Sharma & Colin Glennon
Politics & Policy, April 2013, Pages 267-297
Abstract:
The desirability of complete judicial independence has been debated in several recent works. At issue is whether democratic theory is compatible with policy making by the unelected U.S. Supreme Court justices, particularly as their service becomes further removed from the time when elected officials played a role in their appointment. We examine the relationship between appointing presidents and Supreme Court justices. Relying on ideal points that place all actors in the same scale, our regression models show that a justice will drift from the ideology of an appointing president with each additional term served, even after controlling for ideological shifts in political climate. The beginning of the eleventh term is when ideological drift becomes significant. The connection between justices and democratically elected officials begins to wane after this point in a justice's tenure - a finding that is likely to be germane for proponents of term limits for Supreme Court justices.
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Do Judges Vary in Their Treatment of Race?
David Abrams, Marianne Bertrand & Sendhil Mullainathan
Journal of Legal Studies, June 2012, Pages 347-383
Abstract:
Are minorities treated differently by the legal system? Systematic racial differences in case characteristics, many unobservable, make this a difficult question to answer directly. In this paper, we estimate whether judges differ from each other in how they sentence minorities, avoiding potential bias from unobservable case characteristics by exploiting the random assignment of cases to judges. We measure the between-judge variation in the difference in incarceration rates and sentence lengths between African American and white defendants. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to explicitly construct the appropriate counterfactual, in which race does not influence judicial sentencing. In our data set, which includes felony cases from Cook County, Illinois, we find statistically significant between-judge variation in incarceration rates, although not in sentence lengths.
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The Effects of Legal and Extralegal Factors on Detention Decisions in US District Courts
Angela Reitler, Christopher Sullivan & James Frank
Justice Quarterly, March/April 2013, Pages 340-368
Abstract:
The Bail Reform Act of 1984 changed the law dictating release and detention decisions in federal court. Since its passage, few studies have examined judicial decision-making in this context. Legal research enables us to account for the structure and interpretation of federal detention laws and to analyze previously neglected measures of legal factors in our analyses. We use US Sentencing Commission data on a sample of defendants who were sentenced in 2007 (N = 31,043). We find that legal factors - particularly length of criminal history, having committed a violent or otherwise serious offense, and having committed the offense while under supervision of the criminal justice system - have the strongest relationships with the presentence detention outcome. A defendant's age, race, and ethnicity have weaker relationships with detention. When we compare defendants who are similarly situated with respect to legal factors, the probability of detention is similar regardless of age, race, and ethnicity.
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Kevin Beaver et al.
Personality and Individual Differences, July 2013, Pages 29-34
Abstract:
One of the most consistent findings in the criminological literature is that African American males are arrested, convicted, and incarcerated at rates that far exceed those of any other racial or ethnic group. This racial disparity is frequently interpreted as evidence that the criminal justice system is racist and biased against African American males. Much of the existing literature purportedly supporting this interpretation, however, fails to estimate properly specified statistical models that control for a range of individual-level factors. The current study was designed to address this shortcoming by analyzing a sample of African American and White males drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Analysis of these data revealed that African American males are significantly more likely to be arrested and incarcerated when compared to White males. This racial disparity, however, was completely accounted for after including covariates for self-reported lifetime violence and IQ. Implications of this study are discussed and avenues for future research are offered.
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Rob Tillyer & Robin Engel
Crime & Delinquency, April 2013, Pages 369-395
Abstract:
Recent research has demonstrated that minority drivers receive disparate traffic stop outcomes compared with similarly situated White drivers. This research, however, is often not grounded within a theoretical framework and fails to examine specific combinations of driver demographics. This study addresses those shortcomings by examining research questions based on the social conditioning model and investigating the relationship between specific combinations of drivers' race/ethnicity, gender, and age, and traffic stop outcomes. Using alternative measures of stop outcomes and robust official traffic stop data collected from a state law enforcement agency, the results demonstrate that warnings and citations, but not arrests, are differentially issued to young, Black male drivers. The findings also confirm the influence of legal factors on police decision making during traffic stops. Research and policy implications are discussed.
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Sentencing Native Americans in US Federal Courts: An Examination of Disparity
Travis Franklin
Justice Quarterly, March/April 2013, Pages 310-339
Abstract:
Existing sentencing literature largely focuses on the study of white, African-American, and to a lesser extent, Hispanic offenders. Unfortunately, very little is known about the sentencing of Native American offenders, especially in the federal courts. To address this shortcoming, the current study employs United States Sentencing Commission data for the fiscal years 2006-2008 to examine the comparative punishment of Native Americans. Consistent with the focal concerns perspective and its reliance on perceptions of race-based threat, findings demonstrate that Native Americans are often sentenced more harshly than white, African-American, and Hispanic offenders. Moreover, race-gender-age interactions indicate that during the incarceration decision, young Native American males receive the most punitive sentences, surpassing the punishment costs associated with being a young African-American or Hispanic male. These findings highlight the importance of directing increased attention toward the sentencing of this understudied offender population.
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Implementation of Anti-Discrimination Policy: Does Judicial Selection Matter?
Timothy Besley & Abigail Payne
American Law and Economics Review, Spring 2013, Pages 212-251
Abstract:
Legislation to limit workplace discrimination is among the most common reforms in labor market policy of the past 50 years. Its effectiveness depends on enforcement of the legislation by state and federal agencies and, ultimately, the courts. This paper uses information on discrimination charges in the United States between 1973 and 2000 to analyze whether the number of charges filed is correlated with the method by which state judges are selected. We find evidence that states that appoint their judges have significantly fewer anti-discrimination charges being filed.
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A Fundamental Enforcement Cost Advantage of the Negligence Rule over Regulation
Steven Shavell
Harvard Working Paper, February 2013
Abstract:
Regulation and the negligence rule are both designed to obtain compliance with desired standards of behavior, but they differ in a primary respect: compliance with regulation is ordinarily assessed independently of the occurrence of harm, whereas compliance with the negligence rule is evaluated only if harm occurs. It is shown in a stylized model that because the use of the negligence rule is triggered by harm, the rule enjoys an intrinsic enforcement cost advantage over regulation. Moreover, this advantage suggests that the examination of behavior under the negligence rule should tend to be more detailed than under regulation (as it is).
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The Disappearance of Civil Trial in the United States
John Langbein
Yale Law Journal, December 2012, Pages 522-572
Abstract:
Since the 1930s, the proportion of civil cases concluded at trial has declined from about 20% to below 2% in the federal courts and below 1% in state courts. This Article looks to the history of the civil trial to explain why the trial endured so long and then vanished so rapidly. For the litigants, a civil procedure system serves two connected functions: investigating the facts and adjudicating the dispute. The better the system investigates and clarifies the facts, the more it promotes settlement and reduces the need to adjudicate. The Anglo-American common law for most of its history paid scant attention to the investigative function. This Article points to the role of the jury system in shaping the procedure and restricting the investigative function. Pleading was the only significant component of pretrial procedure, and the dominant function of pleading was to control the jury by narrowing to a single issue the question that the jury would be asked to decide. This primitive pretrial process left trial as the only occasion at which it was sometimes possible to investigate issues of fact. Over time, the jury-free equity courts developed techniques to enable litigants to obtain testimonial and documentary evidence in advance of adjudication. The fusion of law and equity in the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure of 1938 brought those techniques into the merged procedure, and expanded them notably. The signature reform of the Federal Rules was to shift pretrial procedure from pleading to discovery. A new system of civil procedure emerged, centered on the discovery of documents and the sworn depositions of parties and witnesses. Related innovations, the pretrial conference and summary judgment, reinforced the substitution of discovery for trial. This new procedure system has overcome the investigation deficit that so afflicted common law procedure, enabling almost all cases to be settled or dismissed without trial. Pretrial procedure has become nontrial procedure by making trial obsolete.
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Trying to Get What You Want: Heresthetical Maneuvering and U.S. Supreme Court Decision Making
Ryan Black, Rachel Schutte & Timothy Johnson
Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Riker famously theorized that political actors faced with suboptimal outcomes might be able to garner a more desirable one by adding issues to the agenda. To date, limited support for Riker's theory of heresthetics exists, primarily consisting of case studies and anecdotal evidence. We offer a systematic analysis of heresthetical maneuvers in the context of Supreme Court decision making. We argue justices who oppose a potential case outcome may add alternative issues to the record in an effort to restructure the terms of debate. Data from justices' behavior during oral argument support Riker's theory.
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The insured victim effect: When and why compensating harm decreases punishment recommendations
Philippe van de Calseyde, Gideon Keren & Marcel Zeelenberg
Judgment and Decision Making, March 2013, Pages 161-173
Abstract:
An insurance policy may not only affect the consequences for victims but also for perpetrators. In six experiments we find that people recommend milder punishments for perpetrators when the victim was insured, although people believe that a sentence should not depend on the victim's insurance status. The robustness of this effect is demonstrated by showing that recommendations can even be more lenient for crimes that are in fact more serious but in which the victim was insured. Moreover, even when harm was possible but did not materialize, people still prefer to punish crimes less severely when the (potential) victim was insured. The final two experiments suggest that the effect is associated with a change in (1) compassion for the victim and (2) perceived severity of the transgression. Implications of this phenomenon are briefly discussed.
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Speech style and occupational status affect assessments of eyewitness testimony
Sean Jules & Dawn McQuiston
Journal of Applied Social Psychology, April 2013, Pages 741-748
Abstract:
This study examined how speech style and occupational status affect mock jurors' assessments of eyewitness testimony. Mock jurors (n = 120) watched a video of a man testifying about witnessing an attempted robbery. The eyewitness exhibited either a powerless or powerful speech style and reported either a high or low (or no) status occupation during his testimony. Results indicated that high occupation status and powerful speech style led to more favorable evaluations of the eyewitness's testimony and of the case against the defendant than powerless speech style and low/no occupation status. Implications of these results on considerations of eyewitness testimony and future research are discussed.
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Nicola Persico
Journal of Legal Studies, June 2012, Pages 321-346
Abstract:
This paper develops a decision-theoretic model of evidence production in the context of a discrimination trial. Producing evidence is assumed to be costly, and the cost can vary depending on what type of defendant behavior (and plaintiff characteristics) the evidence bears upon. The goal of the trial is to uncover a possible behavioral bias in the defendant (intent to discriminate). I then ask how a social planner would structure the production of evidence in a trial in order to best achieve this objective, taking into account the cost of evidence production. I show that it is sometimes efficient to sequence the production of different kinds of evidence (burden shifting) or even to allow a decision based on limited evidence (for example, disparate impact alone, as a proxy for intent to discriminate). A key variable is the availability of evidence concerning the productivity of the plaintiff.
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National Policy Preferences and Judicial Review of State Statutes at the United States Supreme Court
Stefanie Lindquist & Pamela Corley
Publius, Spring 2013, Pages 151-178
Abstract:
This article explores the determinants of U.S. Supreme Court justices' voting behavior in cases involving constitutional challenges to state statutes, with a particular focus on the degree to which majoritarian influences - as reflected in state participation and congressional preferences - affect the justices' votes. We find that the scope of the Court's decision - in terms of its impact on similar state laws and the expressed interest of states as amicus - strongly affects the justices' willingness to vote to invalidate a state statute. Moreover, at least in the Burger Court, the justices were constrained by congressional preferences over the ideological direction of the constitutional challenge. Justices on the Rehnquist Court, however, appear to have been more impervious to congressional preferences when evaluating the constitutionality of state legislation.
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Can Drug Courts Help to Reduce Prison and Jail Populations?
Eric Sevigny, Harold Pollack & Peter Reuter
ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, May 2013, Pages 190-212
Abstract:
Drug courts have been widely praised as an important tool for reducing prison and jail populations by diverting drug-involved offenders into treatment rather than incarceration. Yet only a small share of offenders presenting with drug abuse or dependence are processed in drug courts. This study uses inmate self-report surveys from 2002 and 2004 to examine characteristics of the prison and jail populations in the United States and assess why so many drug-involved offenders are incarcerated. Our analysis shows that four factors have prevented drug courts from substantially lowering the flow into prisons and jails. In descending order of importance, these are: drug courts' tight eligibility requirements, specific sentencing requirements, legal consequences of program noncompliance, and constraints in drug court capacity and funding. Drug courts will only be able to help lower prison and jail populations if substantial changes are made in eligibility and sentencing rules.
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The Role of Medicolegal Systems in Producing Geographic Variation in Suicide Rates
Joshua Klugman, Gretchen Condran & Matt Wray
Social Science Quarterly, forthcoming
Objectives: In this analysis, we ask whether there is systematic variation in the reporting of suicide by medicolegal system and if so whether this biases estimated effects of social correlates on suicide.
Methods: With cause of death records (1999-2002) and 2000 Census data, we use negative binomial regression to analyze the effects of medicolegal system on suicide and nonsuicide mortality aggregated at county of occurrence.
Results: We find that elected coroners have slightly lower official suicide rates than medical examiners (MEs; all of whom are appointed) and appointed coroners. In addition, we find that omitting medicolegal system does not bias estimates of the social determinants of suicide.
Conclusion: Contrary to arguments that MEs' greater scientific training makes them more likely to underreport suicides, we conclude that appointed death investigators (MEs and appointed coroners) underreport suicide to a lesser degree than elected coroners, who are subject to greater public pressures that result in the misclassification of suicides.
Monday, April 15, 2013
Downsizing
Regulating the Way to Obesity: Unintended Consequences of Limiting Sugary Drink Sizes
Brent Wilson, Stephanie Stolarz-Fantino & Edmund Fantino
PLoS ONE, April 2013
Objectives: We examined whether a sugary drink limit would still be effective if larger-sized drinks were converted into bundles of smaller-sized drinks.
Methods: In a behavioral simulation, participants were offered varying food and drink menus. One menu offered 16 oz, 24 oz, or 32 oz drinks for sale. A second menu offered 16 oz drinks, a bundle of two 12 oz drinks, or a bundle of two 16 oz drinks. A third menu offered only 16 oz drinks for sale. The method involved repeated elicitation of choices, and the instructions did not mention a limit on drink size.
Results: Participants bought significantly more ounces of soda with bundles than with varying-sized drinks. Total business revenue was also higher when bundles rather than only small-sized drinks were sold.
Conclusions: Our research suggests that businesses have a strong incentive to offer bundles of soda when drink size is limited. Restricting larger-sized drinks may have the unintended consequence of increasing soda consumption rather than decreasing it.
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Ecological Contingencies in Women's Calorie Regulation Psychology: A Life History Approach
Sarah Hill et al.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
We used insights from life history theory and the critical fat hypothesis to explore how environmental harshness influences women's food and weight regulation psychology. As predicted by our theoretical model, women who grew up in poorer, more unpredictable environments responded to harshness cues in their adult environments by exhibiting a greater desire for food (Studies 1 and 2) and a diminished concern with calorie restriction and weight loss (Study 3). In sharp contrast, women who grew up in more predictable, wealthier environments responded to these cues by exhibiting a diminished desire for food and increased concern with calorie restriction and weight loss. This research provides novel insights into the role that local environmental factors play in women's food and weight regulation psychology.
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Weightism, Racism, Classism, and Sexism: Shared Forms of Harassment in Adolescents
Michaela Bucchianeri et al.
Journal of Adolescent Health, forthcoming
Purpose: To document the prevalence of harassment on the basis of weight, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status, as well as sexual harassment, among a diverse population of adolescents. Specifically, this study examined rates of each type of harassment reported across groups within the corresponding sociodemographic category (e.g., racial/ethnic category differences in prevalence of racial harassment), and also explored patterns of "cross-harassment" (i.e., differences in prevalence of each harassment type across all other sociodemographic characteristics).
Methods: We used data from Project Eating and Activity in Teens 2010 for the study. The sample was composed of 2,793 adolescents (53% female; 81% nonwhite). We conducted regression analyses to yield prevalence estimates of each type of harassment in each demographic and body mass index category.
Results: Weight- and race-based harassment (35.3% and 35.2%, respectively) was most prevalent, followed by sexual harassment (25.0%) and socioeconomic status-based harassment (16.1%). Overweight and obese adolescents reported disproportionately higher rates of all forms of harassment than did normal-weight and underweight adolescents. In addition, Asian and mixed-/other race adolescents were more vulnerable to harassment overall compared with those from other racial/ethnic groups.
Conclusions: Harassment experiences are prevalent among adolescent boys and girls. Differential rates of each type of harassment are reported across groups within the corresponding sociodemographic category, but a pattern of cross-harassment also is evident, such that differences in prevalence of each type of harassment emerge across a variety of sociodemographic characteristics. Adolescents from various intersecting sociodemographic and weight-status groups are particularly vulnerable to certain types of harassment.
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Andreana Kenrick, Jenessa Shapiro & Steven Neuberg
Social Psychological and Personality Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study examined whether and under what conditions parents might stereotype their own heavyweight children. Parents completed a survey assessing their beliefs about their 9- to 11-year-old children. Parents were also assessed on factors previously demonstrated to moderate people's reactions to heavyweight strangers, including Protestant work ethic (PWE) and personal vulnerability to disease. Consistent with findings on how people view heavyweight strangers, parents who endorsed the PWE or had enhanced disease concerns attributed negative fat stereotypes (e.g., laziness, lacking self-control) to their heavyweight children. Although parental identification did not moderate stereotyping of one's overweight children, those individuals who highly identified with their role as parents spent more time with their heavier-weight children, potentially reflecting a compensatory pattern of behaviors. That even parents negatively stereotype their young heavyweight children reveals the long reach of the anti-fat psychology and suggests that efforts to mitigate the application of fat stereotypes may be particularly difficult.
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Sarah Cohen et al.
PLoS ONE, April 2013
Abstract:
Increased sedentary behavior and lack of physical activity are associated with increased risk for many chronic diseases. Differences in leisure-time physical activity between African American and white adults have been suggested to partially explain racial disparities in chronic disease outcomes, but expanding the definition of physical activity to include household and occupational activities may reduce or even eliminate racial differences in total physical activity. The objective of this study was to describe patterns of active and sedentary behaviors in black and white adults and to examine these behaviors across demographic measures. Sedentary and physically active behaviors were obtained from a validated physical activity questionnaire in 23,021 black men, 9,899 white men, 32,214 black women, and 15,425 white women (age 40-79) at enrollment into the Southern Community Cohort Study. Descriptive statistics for sedentary time; light, moderate, and vigorous household/occupational activity; sports/exercise; total activity; and meeting current physical activity recommendations via sports/exercise were examined for each race-sex group. Adjusted means were calculated using multiple linear regression models across demographic measures. Study participants spent approximately 60% of waking time in sedentary behaviors. Blacks reported more television viewing time than whites (45 minutes for females, 15 minutes for males), but when sitting time was expressed as a proportion of overall awake time, minimal racial differences were found. Patterns of light, moderate, and vigorous household/occupational activity were similar in all race/sex groups. 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans were followed by 16% of women and 25% of men independent of race. Overall, black and white men and women in this study spent the majority of their daily time in sedentary behaviors and less than one-fourth followed current guidelines for physical activity. These results indicate that public health campaigns should focus on both reducing sedentary behavior and increasing physical activity in all adult US populations.
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Impact of insufficient sleep on total daily energy expenditure, food intake, and weight gain
Rachel Markwald et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2 April 2013, Pages 5695-5700
Abstract:
Insufficient sleep is associated with obesity, yet little is known about how repeated nights of insufficient sleep influence energy expenditure and balance. We studied 16 adults in a 14- to 15-d-long inpatient study and quantified effects of 5 d of insufficient sleep, equivalent to a work week, on energy expenditure and energy intake compared with adequate sleep. We found that insufficient sleep increased total daily energy expenditure by ∼5%; however, energy intake - especially at night after dinner - was in excess of energy needed to maintain energy balance. Insufficient sleep led to 0.82 ± 0.47 kg (±SD) weight gain despite changes in hunger and satiety hormones ghrelin and leptin, and peptide YY, which signaled excess energy stores. Insufficient sleep delayed circadian melatonin phase and also led to an earlier circadian phase of wake time. Sex differences showed women, not men, maintained weight during adequate sleep, whereas insufficient sleep reduced dietary restraint and led to weight gain in women. Our findings suggest that increased food intake during insufficient sleep is a physiological adaptation to provide energy needed to sustain additional wakefulness; yet when food is easily accessible, intake surpasses that needed. We also found that transitioning from an insufficient to adequate/recovery sleep schedule decreased energy intake, especially of fats and carbohydrates, and led to -0.03 ± 0.50 kg weight loss. These findings provide evidence that sleep plays a key role in energy metabolism. Importantly, they demonstrate physiological and behavioral mechanisms by which insufficient sleep may contribute to overweight and obesity.
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Characteristics of Screen Media Use Associated With Higher BMI in Young Adolescents
David Bickham et al.
Pediatrics, forthcoming
Objectives: This study investigates how characteristics of young adolescents' screen media use are associated with their BMI. By examining relationships between BMI and both time spent using each of 3 screen media and level of attention allocated to use, we sought to contribute to the understanding of mechanisms linking media use and obesity.
Methods: We measured heights and weights of 91 13- to 15-year-olds and calculated their BMIs. Over 1 week, participants completed a weekday and a Saturday 24-hour time-use diary in which they reported the amount of time they spent using TV, computers, and video games. Participants carried handheld computers and responded to 4 to 7 random signals per day by completing onscreen questionnaires reporting activities to which they were paying primary, secondary, and tertiary attention.
Results: Higher proportions of primary attention to TV were positively associated with higher BMI. The difference between 25th and 75th percentiles of attention to TV corresponded to an estimated +2.4 BMI points. Time spent watching television was unrelated to BMI. Neither duration of use nor extent of attention paid to video games or computers was associated with BMI.
Conclusions: These findings support the notion that attention to TV is a key element of the increased obesity risk associated with TV viewing. Mechanisms may include the influence of TV commercials on preferences for energy-dense, nutritionally questionable foods and/or eating while distracted by TV. Interventions that interrupt these processes may be effective in decreasing obesity among screen media users.
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Heather Leidy et al.
American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, April 2013, Pages 677-688
Background: Breakfast skipping is a common dietary habit practiced among adolescents and is strongly associated with obesity.
Objective: The objective was to examine whether a high-protein (HP) compared with a normal-protein (NP) breakfast leads to daily improvements in appetite, satiety, food motivation and reward, and evening snacking in overweight or obese breakfast-skipping girls.
Design: A randomized crossover design was incorporated in which 20 girls [mean ± SEM age: 19 ± 1 y; body mass index (in kg/m2): 28.6 ± 0.7] consumed 350-kcal NP (13 g protein) cereal-based breakfasts, consumed 350-kcal HP egg- and beef-rich (35 g protein) breakfasts, or continued breakfast skipping (BS) for 6 d. On day 7, a 10-h testing day was completed that included appetite and satiety questionnaires, blood sampling, predinner food cue-stimulated functional magnetic resonance imaging brain scans, ad libitum dinner, and evening snacking.
Results: The consumption of breakfast reduced daily hunger compared with BS with no differences between meals. Breakfast increased daily fullness compared with BS, with the HP breakfast eliciting greater increases than did the NP breakfast. HP, but not NP, reduced daily ghrelin and increased daily peptide YY concentrations compared with BS. Both meals reduced predinner amygdala, hippocampal, and midfrontal corticolimbic activation compared with BS. HP led to additional reductions in hippocampal and parahippocampal activation compared with NP. HP, but not NP, reduced evening snacking of high-fat foods compared with BS.
Conclusions: Breakfast led to beneficial alterations in the appetitive, hormonal, and neural signals that control food intake regulation. Only the HP breakfast led to further alterations in these signals and reduced evening snacking compared with BS, although no differences in daily energy intake were observed. These data suggest that the addition of breakfast, particularly one rich in protein, might be a useful strategy to improve satiety, reduce food motivation and reward, and improve diet quality in overweight or obese teenage girls.
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Does Weight Affect Children's Test Scores and Teacher Assessments Differently?
Madeline Zavodny
Economics of Education Review, June 2013, Pages 135-145
Abstract:
The prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity increased dramatically in the United States during the past three decades. This increase has adverse public health implications, but its implication for children's academic outcomes is less clear. This paper uses data from five waves of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten to examine how children's weight is related to their scores on standardized tests and to their teachers' assessments of their academic ability. The results indicate that children's weight is more negatively related to teacher assessments of their academic performance than to test scores.
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Sleep Duration and Adolescent Obesity
Jonathan Mitchell et al.
Pediatrics, forthcoming
Objectives: Short sleep has been associated with adolescent obesity. Most studies used a cross-sectional design and modeled BMI categories. We sought to determine if sleep duration was associated with BMI distribution changes from age 14 to 18.
Methods: Adolescents were recruited from suburban high schools in Philadelphia when entering ninth grade (n = 1390) and were followed-up every 6 months through 12th grade. Height and weight were self-reported, and BMIs were calculated (kg/m2). Hours of sleep were self-reported. Quantile regression was used to model the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th BMI percentiles as dependent variables; study wave and sleep were the main predictors.
Results: BMI increased from age 14 to 18, with the largest increase observed at the 90th BMI percentile. Each additional hour of sleep was associated with decreases in BMI at the 10th (-0.04; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.11, 0.03), 25th (-0.12; 95% CI: -0.20, -0.04), 50th (-0.15; 95% CI: -0.24, -0.06), 75th (-0.25; 95% CI: -0.38, -0.12), and 90th (-0.27; 95% CI: -0.45, -0.09) BMI percentiles. The strength of the association was stronger at the upper tail of the BMI distribution. Increasing sleep from 7.5 to 10.0 hours per day at age 18 predicted a reduction in the proportion of adolescents >25 kg/m2 by 4%.
Conclusions: More sleep was associated with nonuniform changes in BMI distribution from age 14 to 18. Increasing sleep among adolescents, especially those in the upper half of the BMI distribution, may help prevent overweight and obesity.
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A Randomized Controlled Trial of an Appearance-Based Dietary Intervention
Ross Whitehead, Gözde Ozakinci & David Perrett
Health Psychology, forthcoming
Objective: Inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption precipitates preventable morbidity and mortality. The efficacy of an appearance-based dietary intervention was investigated, which illustrates the beneficial effect that fruit and vegetable consumption has on skin appearance.
Methods: Participants were randomly allocated to three groups receiving information-only or a generic or own-face appearance-based intervention. Diet was recorded at baseline and 10 weekly follow-ups. Participants in the generic and own-face intervention groups witnessed on-screen stimuli and received printed photographic materials to illustrate the beneficial effect of fruit and vegetable consumption on skin color.
Results: Controlling for baseline diet, a significant effect of intervention group was found on self-reported fruit and vegetable intake among 46 completers who were free of medical and personal reasons preventing diet change. The own-face appearance-based intervention group reported a significant, sustained improvement in fruit and vegetable consumption whereas the information-only and generic appearance-based intervention groups reported no significant dietary changes.
Conclusions: Seeing the potential benefits of fruit and vegetable consumption on own skin color may motivate dietary improvement.
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Sit Big to Eat Big: The Interaction of Body Posture and Body Concern on Restrained Eating
Jill Allen, Sarah Gervais & Jessi Smith
Psychology of Women Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Body image concern has long been linked with unhealthy restrained eating patterns among women, yet scant research has examined factors to disrupt this process. At the same time, feminine stereotypes prescribe that women should be small, restrict their movements, speak softly, and limit their food intake (e.g., through dieting). Here, we examined whether women's postural constriction or expansion moderated the relation between body shape concern and restrained eating, predicting that expansive postures would interrupt this robust relation. As a secondary aim, we investigated whether women spontaneously adopted constrictive postures and to what extent postures contributed to restrained eating under baseline conditions. Specifically, women's postural position (constricted, expanded, or baseline posture) was manipulated and restrained eating was measured. Results showed that at high levels of body shape concern, women sitting in expansive postures restrained their eating less compared to women in constrictive postures. Further, spontaneously expansive (vs. spontaneously constrictive) postures were associated with less restrained eating among women. Thus, postural expansion attenuated the link between body shape concern and restrained eating whereas postural constriction exacerbated the link. Implications for gender performativity and possible interventions for restrained eating are discussed.
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Plate Size and Children's Appetite: Effects of Larger Dishware on Self-Served Portions and Intake
Katherine DiSantis et al.
Pediatrics, forthcoming
Objectives: Dishware size is thought to influence eating behaviors, but effects on children's self-served portion sizes and intakes have not been studied. We aimed to evaluate whether larger dishware increased children's self-served portion sizes and intake during meals.
Methods: A within-subjects experimental design was used to test the effects of dishware size (ie, plates and bowls) on children's self-served portion sizes and intakes in a naturalistic setting. Subjects were predominantly African American elementary school-aged children (n = 42) observed on repeated occasions during school lunch. Children served themselves an entree and side dishes using either child- or adult-size dishware, which represented a 100% increase in the surface area of plates and volume of bowls across conditions. Condition order was randomly assigned and counterbalanced across 2 first-grade classrooms. Entrées of amorphous and unit form were evaluated on separate days. Fruit and vegetable side dishes were evaluated at each meal. Fixed portions of milk and bread were provided at each meal.
Results: Children served more energy (mean = 90.1 kcal, SE = 29.4 kcal) when using adult-size dishware. Adult-size dishware promoted energy intake indirectly, where every additional calorie served resulted in a 0.43-kcal increase in total energy intakes at lunch (t = 7.72, P = .001).
Conclusions: Children served themselves more with larger plates and bowls and consumed nearly 50% of the calories that they served. This provides new evidence that children's self-served portion sizes are influenced by size-related facets of their eating environments, which, in turn, may influence children's energy intake.
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Health on Impulse: When Low Self-Control Promotes Healthy Food Choices
Stefanie Salmon et al.
Health Psychology, forthcoming
Objective: Food choices are often made mindlessly, when individuals are not able or willing to exert self-control. Under low self-control, individuals have difficulties to resist palatable but unhealthy food products. In contrast to previous research aiming to foster healthy choices by promoting high self-control, this study exploits situations of low self-control, by strategically using the tendency under these conditions to rely on heuristics (simple decision rules) as quick guides to action. More specifically, the authors associated healthy food products with the social proof heuristic (i.e., normative cues that convey majority endorsement for those products).
Method: One hundred seventy-seven students (119 men), with an average age of 20.47 years (SD = 2.25) participated in the experiment. This study used a 2 (low vs. high self-control) × 2 (social proof vs. no heuristic) × 2 (trade-off vs. control choice) design, with the latter as within-subjects factor. The dependent variable was the number of healthy food choices in a food-choice task.
Results: In line with previous studies, people made fewer healthy food choices under low self-control. However, this negative effect of low self-control on food choice was reversed when the healthy option was associated with the social proof heuristic. In that case, people made more healthy choices under conditions of low self-control.
Conclusion: Low self-control may be even more beneficial for healthy food choices than high self-control in the presence of a heuristic. Exploiting situations of low self-control is a new and promising method to promote health on impulse.
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M.S. Tryon, Rashel DeCant & K.D. Laugero
Physiology & Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Stress has been tied to changes in eating behavior and food choice. Previous studies in rodents have shown that chronic stress increases palatable food intake which, in turn, increases mesenteric fat and inhibits acute stress-induced hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis activity. The effect of chronic stress on eating behavior in humans is less understood, but it may be linked to HPA responsivity. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of chronic social stress and acute stress reactivity on food choice and food intake. Forty-one women (BMI = 25.9 ± 5.1 kg/m2, age range = 41 to 52 years) were subjected to the Trier Social Stress Task or a control task (nature movie) to examine HPA responses to an acute laboratory stressor and then invited to eat from a buffet containing low- and high- calorie "comfort" snacks. Women were also categorized as high chronic stress or low chronic stress based on Wheaton Social Stress Index scores. Women reporting higher chronic stress and exhibiting low cortisol reactivity to the acute stress task consumed significantly more calories from chocolate cake on both stress and control visits. Chronic stress in the low cortisol reactor group was also positively related to total fat mass, regional fat percentage, and stress-induced negative mood. Further, women reporting high chronic stress consumed significantly less vegetables, but only in those aged 45 years and older. Chronic stress in women within the higher age category was positively related to total calories consumed at the buffet, stress-induced negative mood and food craving. Our results suggest an increased risk for stress eating in persons with a specific chronic stress signature and imply that a habit of comfort food may link chronic social stress and acute stress-induced cortisol hyporesponsiveness.
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Weight perceptions, weight control and income: An analysis using British Data
David Johnston & Grace Lordan
Economics & Human Biology, forthcoming
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to better understand one of the mechanisms underlying the income-obesity relationship so that effective policy interventions can be developed. Our approach involves analysing data on approximately 9,000 overweight British adults from between 1997 and 2002. We estimate the effect of income on the probability that an overweight individual correctly recognises their overweight status and the effect of income on the probability that an overweight individual attempts to lose weight. The results suggest that high income individuals are more likely to recognise their unhealthy weight status, and conditional on this correct weight perception, more likely to attempt weight loss. For example, it is estimated that overweight high income males are 15 percentage-points more likely to recognize their overweight status than overweight low income males, and overweight high income males are 10 percentage-points more likely to be trying to lose weight. An implication of these results is that more public education on what constitutes overweight and the dangers associated with being overweight is needed, especially in low income neighbourhoods.
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Body mass index and neurocognitive functioning across the adult lifespan
Kelly Stanek et al.
Neuropsychology, March 2013, Pages 141-151
Objective: Cognitive dysfunction and structural brain abnormalities have been observed in obese versus lean individuals, but with variability across age and weight groups. The current study was designed to clarify the cognitive profile of obesity by examining performance across multiple cognitive domains in adults with wide-ranging age and weight status.
Method: Participants (N = 732; 61% women; ages 18-88; BMI range 19-75) underwent assessment of cognitive functioning and relevant medical/demographic covariates. Neuropsychological tests were grouped by cognitive domain (via confirmatory factor analysis), and standardized scores were averaged into composite variables.
Results: Hierarchical linear regression analyses revealed main effects for BMI on motor (ΔR2 = .02, β = -.15) and attention/processing speed (ΔR2 = .01, β = -.07), whereas a significant interaction between BMI and age was observed (ΔR2 = .01, β = -.08) for predicting executive functioning (p < .05). BMI was not independently associated with memory or language functioning and no interaction effects were observed for these variables. Although BMI was not independently related to executive dysfunction, a significant age × BMI interaction suggests that obesity-related executive deficits may increase with age.
Conclusions: Overall, these findings may support an independent association between obesity and a frontal-subcortical pathology, though prospective studies are needed to further clarify this possibility.
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Perceived and actual social discrimination: The case of overweight and social inclusion
Freda-Marie Hartung & Britta Renner
Frontiers in Psychology, April 2013
Abstract:
The present study examined the correspondence between perceived and actual social discrimination of overweight people. In total, 77 first-year students provided self-ratings about their height, weight, and perceived social inclusion. To capture actual social inclusion, each participant nominated those fellow students (a) she/he likes and dislikes and (b) about whom she/he is likely to hear social news. Students with lower Body Mass Index (BMI) felt socially included, irrespective of their actual social inclusion. In contrast, students with higher BMI felt socially included depending on the degree of their actual social inclusion. Specifically, their felt social inclusion accurately reflected whether they were actually liked/disliked, but only when they were part of social news. When not part of social news, they also showed insensitivity to their actual social inclusion status. Thus, students with a lower BMI tended to be insensitive, while students with a higher BMI showed a differential sensitivity to actual social discrimination.
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Ming Wen & Thomas Maloney
Economics & Human Biology, forthcoming
Abstract:
We build on recent work examining the BMI patterns of immigrants in the US by distinguishing between legal and undocumented immigrants. We find that undocumented women have relative odds of obesity that are about 10 percentage points higher than for legal immigrant women, and their relative odds of being overweight are about 40 percentage points higher. We also find that the odds of obesity and overweight status vary less across neighborhoods for undocumented women than for legal immigrant women. These patterns are not found among immigrant men: undocumented men have lower rates of obesity (by about 6 percentage points in terms of relative odds) and overweight (by about 12 percentage points) than do legal immigrant men, and there is little variation in the impact of neighborhood context across groups of men. We interpret these findings in terms of processes of acculturation among immigrant men and women.
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John Cawley, Rosemary Avery & Matthew Eisenberg
NBER Working Paper, March 2013
Abstract:
This paper is the first to estimate the impact of exposure to deceptive advertising on consumption of the advertised product and its substitutes. We study the market for over-the-counter (OTC) weight-loss products, a market in which deceptive advertising is rampant and products are generally ineffective with potentially serious side effects. We control for the targeting of ads using indicator variables for each unique magazine read and television show watched. Our estimates indicate that exposure to deceptive advertising is associated with a lower probability that women, and a higher probability that men, consume OTC weight loss products. We find evidence of spillovers; exposure to deceptive print ads is associated with a higher probability of dieting and exercising for both men and women. We also find evidence that better-educated individuals are more sophisticated consumers of advertising and use it to make more health-promoting decisions.
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A.M. Adachi-Mejia et al.
Public Health, forthcoming
Objectives: The 2010 Dietary Guidelines for Americans include reducing consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. Among the many possible routes of access for youth, school vending machines provide ready availability of sugar-sweetened beverages. The purpose of this study was to determine variation in high school student access to sugar-sweetened beverages through vending machines by geographic location - urban, town or rural - and to offer an approach for analysing school vending machine content.
Study design: Cross-sectional observational study.
Methods: Between October 2007 and May 2008, trained coders recorded beverage vending machine content and machine-front advertising in 113 machines across 26 schools in New Hampshire and Vermont, USA.
Results: Compared with town schools, urban schools were significantly less likely to offer sugar-sweetened beverages (P = 0.002). Rural schools also offered more sugar-sweetened beverages than urban schools, but this difference was not significant. Advertisements for sugar-sweetened beverages were highly prevalent in town schools.
Conclusions: High school students have ready access to sugar-sweetened beverages through their school vending machines. Town schools offer the highest risk of exposure; school vending machines located in towns offer up to twice as much access to sugar-sweetened beverages in both content and advertising compared with urban locations. Variation by geographic region suggests that healthier environments are possible and some schools can lead as inspirational role models.
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Two Functional Serotonin Polymorphisms Moderate the Effect of Food Reinforcement on BMI
Katelyn Carr et al.
Behavioral Neuroscience, forthcoming
Abstract:
Food reinforcement, or the motivation to eat, has been associated with increased energy intake, greater body weight, and prospective weight gain. Much of the previous research on the reinforcing value of food has focused on the role of dopamine, but it may be worthwhile to examine genetic polymorphisms in the serotonin and opioid systems as these neurotransmitters have been shown to be related to reinforcement processes and to influence energy intake. We examined the relationship among 44 candidate genetic polymorphisms in the dopamine, serotonin, and opioid systems, as well as food reinforcement and body mass index (BMI) in a sample of 245 individuals. Polymorphisms in the monoamine oxidase A (MAOA-LPR) and serotonin receptor 2A genes (rs6314) moderated the effect of food reinforcement on BMI, accounting for an additional 5-10% variance and revealed a potential role of the single nucleotide polymorphism, rs6314, in the serotonin 2A receptor as a differential susceptibility factor for obesity. Differential susceptibility describes a factor that can confer either risk or protection depending on a second variable, such that rs6314 is predictive of both high and low BMI based on the level of food reinforcement, while the diathesis stress or dual-gain model only influences one end of the outcome measure. The interaction with MAOA-LPR better fits the diathesis stress model, with the 3.5R/4R allele conferring protection for individuals low in food reinforcement. These results provide new insight into genes theoretically involved in obesity, and support the hypothesis that genetics moderate the association between food reinforcement and BMI.
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Keith Babbs et al.
Physiology & Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Previous investigations consistently report a negative association between body mass index (BMI) and response in the caudate nucleus during the consumption of palatable and energy dense food. Since this response has also been linked to weight gain, we sought to replicate this finding and determine if the reduced response is associated with measures of impulsivity or food reward. Two studies were conducted in which fMRI was used to measure brain response to milkshake and a tasteless control solution. In Study 1 (n = 25) we also assessed self-reported impulsivity, willingness to work for food, and subjective experiences of the pleasantness of milkshake taste and aroma. Replicating prior work, we report a negative association between BMI and brain response to milkshake vs. tasteless in the caudate nucleus. The opposite pattern was observed in the ventral putamen, with greater response observed in the 13 overweight compared to the 12 healthy weight subjects. Regression of brain response against impulsivity and food reward measures revealed one significant association: in the overweight but not healthy weight group self-reported impulsivity was negatively associated with caudate response to milkshake. In Study 2 (n = 14), in addition to assessing brain response to milkshake and tasteless solutions subjects completed a go/no-go task outside the scanner. As predicted, we identified an inverse relationship between caudate response to milkshake vs. tasteless and failure to inhibit responses on the no-go trials. We conclude that the inverse correlation between BMI and caudate response to milkshake is associated with impulsivity but not food reward. These findings suggest that response to milkshake in the dorsal striatum may be related to weight gain by promoting impulsive eating behavior.
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Wei He et al.
PLoS ONE, March 2013
Introduction: Chinese are reported to have a higher percent body fat (¿) and a higher percent trunk fat (%TF) than whites for a given body mass index (BMI). However, the associations of these ethnic differences in body composition with metabolic risks remain unknown.
Methods and Procedures: A total of 1 029 Chinese from Hangzhou, China, and 207 whites from New York, NY, USA, were recruited in the present study. Body composition was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Analysis of covariance was used to assess the ethnic differences in fat, fat distribution, and metabolic risk factors.
Results: After adjusting for BMI, age, and height, Chinese men had an average of 3.9% more ¿ and 12.1% more %TF than white men; Chinese women had an average of 2.3% more ¿ and 11.8% more %TF than white women. Compared with whites, higher metabolic risks were detected in Chinese for a given BMI after adjusting for age and height. Further adjustment for ¿ did not change these ethnic disparities. However, after adjusting for %TF, the ethnic differences decreased and become insignificant in triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and blood pressure (except for systolic blood pressure in men). For fasting plasma glucose, the ethnic differences persisted after adjustment for ¿, but decreased significantly from 0.910 to 0.686 mmol/L among men, and from 0.629 to 0.355 mmol/L among women, when the analyses were further controlled for %TF.
Discussion: Chinese have both higher ¿ and %TF than white people for a given BMI. However, only %TF could in part account for the higher metabolic risk observed in Chinese men and women.
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Timing of Solid Food Introduction and Obesity: Hong Kong's "Children of 1997" Birth Cohort
Shi Lin Lin et al.
Pediatrics, forthcoming
Background: Some observational studies in Western settings show that early introduction of solid food is associated with subsequent obesity. However, introduction of solid food and obesity share social patterning. We examined the association of the timing of the introduction of solid food with BMI and overweight (including obesity) into adolescence in a developed non-Western setting, in which childhood obesity is less clearly socially patterned.
Methods: We used generalized estimating equation models to estimate the adjusted associations of the timing of the introduction of solid food (<3, 3-4, 5-6, 7-8, and >8 months) with BMI z score and overweight (including obesity) at different growth phases (infancy, childhood, and puberty) in 7809 children (88% follow-up) from a Chinese birth cohort, "Children of 1997." We assessed if the associations varied with gender or breastfeeding. We used multiple imputation for missing exposure and confounders.
Results: The introduction of solid food at <3 months of age was associated with lower family socioeconomic position (SEP) but was not clearly associated with BMI or overweight (including obesity) in infancy [mean difference in BMI z score: 0.01; 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.14 to 0.17], childhood (0.14; 95% CI: -0.11 to 0.40), or at puberty (0.22; 95% CI: -0.07 to 0.52), adjusted for SEP and infant and maternal characteristics.
Conclusions: In a non-Western developed setting, there was no clear association of the early introduction of solid food with childhood obesity. Together with the inconsistent evidence from studies in Western settings, this finding suggests that any observed associations might simply be residual confounding by SEP.
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Richard Martin et al.
Journal of the American Medical Association, 13 March 2013, Pages 1005-1013
Importance: Evidence that longer-term and exclusive breastfeeding reduces child obesity risk is based on observational studies that are prone to confounding.
Objective: To investigate effects of an intervention to promote increased duration and exclusivity of breastfeeding on child adiposity and circulating insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I, which regulates growth.
Design, Setting, and Participants: Cluster-randomized controlled trial in 31 Belarusian maternity hospitals and their affiliated clinics, randomized into 1 of 2 groups: breastfeeding promotion intervention (n = 16) or usual practices (n = 15). Participants were 17 046 breastfeeding mother-infant pairs enrolled in 1996 and 1997, of whom 13 879 (81.4%) were followed up between January 2008 and December 2010 at a median age of 11.5 years.
Intervention: Breastfeeding promotion intervention modeled on the WHO/UNICEF Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative (World Health Organization/United Nations Children's Fund).
Main Outcome Measures: Body mass index (BMI), fat and fat-free mass indices (FMI and FFMI), percent body fat, waist circumference, triceps and subscapular skinfold thicknesses, overweight and obesity, and whole-blood IGF-I. Primary analysis was based on modified intention-to-treat (without imputation), accounting for clustering within hospitals and clinics.
Results: The experimental intervention substantially increased breastfeeding duration and exclusivity when compared with the control (43% vs 6% exclusively breastfed at 3 months and 7.9% vs 0.6% at 6 months). Cluster-adjusted mean differences in outcomes at 11.5 years of age between experimental vs control groups were: 0.19 (95% CI, -0.09 to 0.46) for BMI; 0.12 (-0.03 to 0.28) for FMI; 0.04 (-0.11 to 0.18) for FFMI; 0.47% (-0.11% to 1.05%) for percent body fat; 0.30 cm (-1.41 to 2.01) for waist circumference; -0.07 mm (-1.71 to 1.57) for triceps and -0.02 mm (-0.79 to 0.75) for subscapular skinfold thicknesses; and -0.02 standard deviations (-0.12 to 0.08) for IGF-I. The cluster-adjusted odds ratio for overweight/obesity (BMI ≥85th vs <85th percentile) was 1.18 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.39) and for obesity (BMI ≥95th vs <85th percentile) was 1.17 (95% CI, 0.97 to 1.41).
Conclusions and Relevance: Among healthy term infants in Belarus, an intervention that succeeded in improving the duration and exclusivity of breastfeeding did not prevent overweight or obesity, nor did it affect IGF-I levels at age 11.5 years. Breastfeeding has many advantages but population strategies to increase the duration and exclusivity of breastfeeding are unlikely to curb the obesity epidemic.
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Jessica McNeil et al.
Physiology & Behavior, 15 March 2013, Pages 84-89
Abstract:
Increases in energy, lipid and carbohydrate intakes during the luteal phase have been previously observed. However, it is not known whether this is due to phase-dependent variations in the reward value of certain foods. Moreover, increases in olfactory sensitivity have been proposed and may be involved in these changes in food reward. Therefore, we examined olfactory performance and the reward value of foods varying in fat content and taste. Seventeen women (Body mass index: 22.3 ± 1.6 kg/m2; Body fat-DXA: 28.5 ± 6.8%) were recruited to participate in 3 identical sessions, performed during distinct phases of the menstrual cycle - early follicular/menstruation, late follicular/ovulation and mid-luteal - verified by plasma sex-steroid hormones and oral temperature. Food preference, implicit wanting, and explicit wanting and liking for visual food cues, varying in fat content and taste, were measured with a validated experimental platform involving a forced choice computer task. Odour threshold, odour discrimination, odour identification and total odour scores were measured using odourized pens. Ad libitum energy and macronutrient intakes was measured with a validated food menu. Results showed greater total odour scores (p < 0.05), explicit wanting for high fat foods (p < 0.05) and lipid intake (p < 0.05) during the mid-luteal phase. Inter-correlations between these variables were non-significant. These findings support previous observations of increased lipid intake during the luteal phase and provide evidence for phase-dependent variation in overall olfactory performance and explicit wanting for high fat foods.
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Perceived Environmental Church Support and Physical Activity Among Black Church Members
Meghan Baruth et al.
Health Education & Behavior, forthcoming
Background: Churches are an appealing setting for implementing health-related behavior change programs. Purpose. The objective of the study was to examine the relationship between perceived environmental church support for physical activity (PA) and PA behaviors.
Method: Black church members from South Carolina (n = 309) wore an Actigraph accelerometer prior to the initiation of an intervention. Relationships between moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA; counts ≥1,952), light PA (LPA; counts 100-1951), sedentary behavior (counts <100), and perceived environmental church support for PA (total, spoken informational, written informational, instrumental) were examined. Support × Gender interactions examined whether relationships differed by gender.
Results: The mean age was 54.0 ± 12.3 years and mean body mass index was 32.9 ± 7.2 kg/m2. On average, participants engaged in 14.4 ± 13.7 minutes/day of MVPA, 289.8 ± 82.4 minutes/day of LPA, and were sedentary 548.9 ± 102.2 minutes/day. Total, spoken informational, and written informational church support were significantly related to higher levels of LPA and lower levels of sedentary behavior in men but not women. The relationship between written informational support and MVPA approached significance for men but not women. Instrumental church support was not associated with PA behaviors.
Conclusion: The church environment may have an important influence on Black church members' PA behavior, particularly men's, and thus should be targeted in interventions.
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R. Mathur et al.
Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, April 2013, Pages E698-E702
Context: Colonization of the gastrointestinal tract with methanogenic archaea (methanogens) significantly affects host metabolism and weight gain in animal models, and breath methane is associated with a greater body mass index (BMI) among obese human subjects.
Objective: The objective of the study was to characterize the relationship between methane and hydrogen on breath test (as a surrogate for colonization with the hydrogen requiring methanogen, Methanobrevibacter smithii), body weight, and percent body fat in a general population cohort.
Design and Subjects: This was a prospective study (n = 792) of consecutive subjects presenting for breath testing.
Setting: The study was conducted at a tertiary care center.
Outcome Measurements: BMI and percent body fat were measured.
Results: Subjects were classified into 4 groups based on breath testing: normal (N) (methane <3 ppm and hydrogen <20 ppm at or before 90 minutes); hydrogen positive only (H+) [methane <3 ppm and hydrogen ≥20 ppm); methane positive only (M+) (methane ≥3 ppm and hydrogen <20 ppm), or methane and hydrogen positive (M+/H+) (methane ≥3 ppm and hydrogen ≥20 ppm]. There were significant differences in age but not in gender across the groups. After controlling for age as a confounding variable, M+/H+ subjects had significantly higher BMI than other groups (N: 24.1 ± 5.2 kg/m2; H+: 24.2 ± 4.5 kg/m2; M+: 24.0 ± 3.75 kg/m2; M+/H+: 26.5 ± 7.1 kg/m2, P < .02) and also had significantly higher percent body fat (N: 28.3 ± 10.0%; H+: 27.5 ± 9.0%; M+: 28.0 ± 8.9%; M+/H+; 34.1 ± 10.9%, P < .001).
Conclusions: The presence of both methane and hydrogen on breath testing is associated with increased BMI and percent body fat in humans. We hypothesize that this is due to colonization with the hydrogen-requiring M smithii, which affects nutrient availability for the host and may contribute to weight gain.
Sunday, April 14, 2013
How you can help
Life or Death Decisions: Framing the Call for Help
Eileen Chou & Keith Murnighan
PLoS ONE, March 2013
Background: Chronic blood shortages in the U.S. would be alleviated by small increases, in percentage terms, of people donating blood. The current research investigated the effects of subtle changes in charity-seeking messages on the likelihood of people responses to a call for help. We predicted that "avoid losses" messages would lead to more helping behavior than "promote gains" messages would.
Method: Two studies investigated the effects of message framing on helping intentions and behaviors. With the help and collaboration of the Red Cross, Study 1, a field experiment, directly assessed the effectiveness of a call for blood donations that was presented as either death-preventing (losses) or life-saving (gains), and as being of either more or less urgent need. With the help and collaboration of a local charity, Study 2, a lab experiment, assessed the effects of the gain-versus-loss framing of a donation-soliciting flyer on individuals' expectations of others' monetary donations as well their own volunteering behavior. Study 2 also assessed the effects of three emotional motivators - feelings of empathy, positive affect, and relational closeness.
Result: Study 1 indicated that, on a college campus, describing blood donations as a way to "prevent a death" rather than "save a life" boosted the donation rate. Study 2 showed that framing a charity's appeals as helping people to avoid a loss led to larger expected donations, increased intentions to volunteer, and more helping behavior, independent of other emotional motivators.
Conclusion: This research identifies and demonstrates a reliable and effective method for increasing important helping behaviors by providing charities with concrete ideas that can effectively increase helping behavior generally and potentially death-preventing behavior in particular.
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The multidimensional effects of a small gift: Evidence from a natural field experiment
Ellen Garbarino, Robert Slonim & Carmen Wang
Economics Letters, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using a large natural field experiment, we demonstrate that a small unconditional gift (pen) more than doubled both small (survey) and large (blood donation) responses. We find no evidence that the opportunity for a small response crowded out the larger response; asking participants to also complete a survey directionally increased donations.
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Induced Altruism in Religious, Military, and Terrorist Organizations
Hector Qirko
Cross-Cultural Research, May 2013, Pages 131-161
Abstract:
Human altruism in non-kin, unreciprocated contexts is difficult to understand in evolutionary terms. However, neo-Darwinian theories remain a potentially useful means of illuminating this behavior. In particular, induced altruism, wherein cues of genetic relatedness are manipulated to elicit costly behaviors for the benefit of non-kin, appears highly relevant. This article reviews cross-cultural data on several examples of extremely costly altruism - vows of celibacy, suicide bombings, and combat suicide - as exhibited in organizational and institutional contexts. Two predictions are used to test the relevance of induced altruism to the reinforcement of altruistic commitment to these behaviors. First, different organizations requiring costly sacrifice by their members should employ similar practices involving patterns of association, phenotypic similarity, and kinship terminology that are associated with kin cue-manipulation. Second, these organizational practices should be adopted as a consequence of recruit pools growing increasingly larger and, thus, less genetically related. There appears to be support for both predictions, suggesting that cross-cultural analyses could provide an effective avenue through which to test this and other evolutionary theories related to human unreciprocated altruism in non-kin contexts.
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Jonathan Meer
Economic Inquiry, forthcoming
Abstract:
Many charitable organizations believe it is worthwhile to solicit very small donations, particularly from young people, because these gifts form a habit of giving which leads to larger donations in the future. Indeed, there is some evidence of a positive correlation between giving when young and giving when old. However, such a correlation, by itself, does not constitute evidence of habit formation. Using data on alumni contributions to a university, we assess whether the correlation is due to habit formation - true state dependence - or to unobservable factors such as affinity to the school. We further examine whether habits form by the mere act of giving or based on the amount given. We implement an instrumental variables approach using the fact that performance of the school's athletic teams and solicitation by one's former roommates generate shocks to giving while young that are plausibly uncorrelated with giving when older. There is strong evidence of habit formation on the extensive margin, but not in the amount given. This finding has important implications for fundraising strategies, charities' accounting practices, and tax policy.
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Being Mimicked Increases Prosocial Behavior in 18-Month-Old Infants
Malinda Carpenter, Johanna Uebel & Michael Tomasello
Child Development, forthcoming
Abstract:
Most previous research on imitation in infancy has focused on infants' learning of instrumental actions on objects. This study focused instead on the more social side of imitation, testing whether being mimicked increases prosocial behavior in infants, as it does in adults (van Baaren, Holland, Kawakami, & van Knippenberg, 2004). Eighteen-month-old infants (N = 48) were either mimicked or not by an experimenter; then either that experimenter or a different adult needed help. Infants who had previously been mimicked were significantly more likely to help both adults than infants who had not been mimicked. Thus, even in infancy, mimicry has positive social consequences: It promotes a general prosocial orientation toward others.
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Experimental Evidence of Self-Image Concerns as Motivation for Giving
Mirco Tonin & Michael Vlassopoulos
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, June 2013, Pages 19-27
Abstract:
In this paper we present evidence of self-image concerns in charitable giving using a laboratory experiment. Subjects make a series of three decisions of allocating an endowment of £ 10 between themselves and a passive recipient that is either a charity or the experimenters. When making these decisions subjects are informed that one of them will be chosen randomly at the end to determine payoffs. After all decisions have been made and it has been revealed which decision will determine payoffs we offer subjects an opportunity to opt out from their initial decision and receive £ 10 instead. We find that almost a quarter of subjects choose to opt out, while around one third opt out from a positive donation. The fact that a subject decides to revise a decision to give and chooses instead to keep the whole amount - an option that was available when she made the first decision and was not exercised - indicates that giving in the first instance was not motivated solely by altruism toward the recipient. We argue that opting out can be explained through a combination of a reduced benefit of self-signaling due to satiation, and an increase in the costs of giving at the opt out stage, as they are realized with certainty.
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Volunteering Predicts Health Among Those Who Value Others: Two National Studies
Michael Poulin
Health Psychology, forthcoming
Objective: The purpose of these studies was to examine the role of positive views of other people in predicting stress-buffering effects of volunteering on mortality and psychological distress.
Method: In Study 1, stressful life events, volunteering, and hostile cynicism assessed in a baseline Detroit-area survey (N = 846) predicted survival over a 5-year period, adjusting for relevant covariates. In Study 2, stressful life events, volunteering, and world benevolence beliefs assessed in a baseline national survey (N = 1,157) predicted psychological distress over a 1-year period, adjusting for distress at baseline.
Results: In Study 1, a Cox proportional hazard model indicated that for individuals low in cynicism, stress predicted mortality at low levels of volunteering but not at high levels of volunteering. This effect was not present among those high in cynicism. In Study 2, multiple regression analysis revealed that among individuals high in world benevolence beliefs, stress predicted elevated distress at low levels of volunteering but not at high levels of volunteering. This effect was absent for those lower in world benevolence beliefs.
Conclusions: Consistent with prior research on helping behavior, these studies indicate that helping behavior can buffer the effects of stress on health. However, the results of these studies indicate that stress-buffering effects of volunteering are limited to individuals with positive views of other people. Not all individuals may benefit from volunteering, and health-promotion efforts seeking to draw on health benefits of helping behavior may need to target their approach accordingly.
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The bystander effect in an N-person dictator game
Karthik Panchanathan, Willem Frankenhuis & Joan Silk
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, March 2013, Pages 285-297
Abstract:
Dozens of studies show that bystanders are less likely to help victims as bystander number increases. However, these studies model one particular situation, in which victims need only one helper. Using a multi-player dictator game, we study a different but common situation, in which a recipient's welfare increases with the amount of help, and donors can share the burden of helping. We find that dictators transfer less when there are more dictators, and recipients earn less when there are multiple dictators. This effect persisted despite mechanisms eliminating uncertainty about other dictators' behavior (a strategy method and communication). In a typical public goods game, people seem to transform the situation into an assurance game, willing to contribute if certain others will too. Despite similarities, people do not treat a recipient's welfare like a public good. Instead, people seem to transform the situation into a prisoner's dilemma, refusing to help whatever others do.
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Morten Brænder & Lotte Bøgh Andersen
Public Administration Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Exposure to the extreme stress of warfare may affect soldiers' perceptions of others and society. Using panel data from two companies on a tour of duty to Afghanistan in 2011, this article analyzes how different dimensions of soldiers' public service motivation are influenced by deployment to war. As expected, soldiers' compassion decreased and commitment to the public interest increased, while self-sacrifice did not change systematically. Deployment to war was expected to affect inexperienced soldiers more than their experienced colleagues, but this hypothesis was only partially satisfied. The key contribution of the article is the use of panel data and the examination of motivational changes. Moreover, studying soldiers' public service motivation enables us to connect public administration and military sociology and thereby to establish a better understanding of motivation in extreme settings.
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A comparison of Asians', Hispanics', and Whites' restaurant tipping
Michael Lynn
Journal of Applied Social Psychology, April 2013, Pages 834-839
Abstract:
Asians and Hispanics are perceived by many restaurant servers as poor tippers. This study tests the validity of those perceptions using data from a large restaurant chain's online customer satisfaction survey. Findings partially support servers' perceptions - Hispanics but not Asians tipped less on average than Whites after controlling for bill size, the customer's own ratings of service quality, and other variables. Discussion centers around the differences between these findings and those of a previous study and on the practical implications of the findings for restaurant managers.
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Tehila Kogut & Ehud Kogut
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
People's preference to help victims about whom they have some information is known as the identifiable victim effect. Results of three studies, in which dispositional attachment styles were measured (study 1) and activated in a between-subjects priming manipulation (studies 2 and 3), suggest that the intensity of this phenomenon is related to the potential helper's adult attachment style. Specifically, we found that secure people provide similar levels of help to identified and unidentified victims. Attachment avoidance is associated with lower donations to both types of victims. Finally, the biggest gap between donations to identified and unidentified victims was found for anxious people, who tend to donate relatively higher amounts to identified victims and lower amounts to unidentified ones. Moreover, people under attachment-anxiety priming tend to perceive less similarity and connectedness between themselves and unidentified victims as opposed to identified victims, a tendency that may underlie the identifiability effect.
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Caring for sharing: How attachment styles modulate communal cues of physical warmth
Hans IJzerman et al.
Social Psychology, Spring 2013, Pages 160-166
Abstract:
Does physical warmth lead to caring and sharing? Research suggests that it does; physically warm versus cold conditions induce prosocial behaviors and cognitions. Importantly, previous research has not traced the developmental origins of the association between physical warmth and affection. The association between physical warmth and sharing may be captured in specific cognitive models of close social relations, often referred to as attachment styles. In line with this notion, and using a dictator game set-up, the current study demonstrates that children who relate to their friends with a secure attachment style are more generous toward their peers in warm than in cold conditions. This effect was absent for children who relate to friends with an insecure attachment style. Notably, however, these children not just always shared less: They allocated more stickers to a friend than to a stranger. These findings provide an important first step to understand how fundamental embodied relations develop early in life. We discuss broader implications for grounded cognition and person perception.
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Hannah Schreier, Kimberly Schonert-Reichl & Edith Chen
JAMA Pediatrics, April 2013, Pages 327-332
Importance: The idea that individuals who help others incur health benefits themselves suggests a novel approach to improving health while simultaneously promoting greater civic orientation in our society. The present study is the first experimental trial, to our knowledge, of whether regular volunteering can reduce cardiovascular risk factors in adolescents.
Objective: To test a novel intervention that assigned adolescents to volunteer with elementary school-aged children as a means of improving adolescents' cardiovascular risk profiles.
Design: Randomized controlled trial, with measurements taken at baseline and 4 months later (postintervention).
Setting: Urban public high school in western Canada.
Participants: One hundred six 10th-grade high school students who were fluent in English and free of chronic illnesses.
Intervention: Weekly volunteering with elementary school-aged children for 2 months vs wait-list control group.
Main Outcome Measures: Cardiovascular risk markers of C-reactive protein level, interleukin 6 level, total cholesterol level, and body mass index.
Results: No statistically significant group differences were found at baseline. Postintervention, adolescents in the intervention group showed significantly lower interleukin 6 levels (log10 mean difference, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.004 to 0.251), cholesterol levels (log10 mean difference, 0.03; 95% CI, 0.003 to 0.059), and body mass index (mean difference, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.07 to 0.71) compared with adolescents in the control group. Effects for C-reactive protein level were marginal (log10 mean difference, 0.13; 95% CI, -0.011 to 0.275). Preliminary analyses within the intervention group suggest that those who increased the most in empathy and altruistic behaviors, and who decreased the most in negative mood, also showed the greatest decreases in cardiovascular risk over time.
Conclusions and Relevance: Adolescents who volunteer to help others also benefit themselves, suggesting a novel way to improve health.
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Michael Babula
Journal of Applied Social Psychology, April 2013, Pages 899-908
Abstract:
The helping motivations of wealth-driven college students were investigated. Tang et al. argues that wealth-driven individuals are extrinsically motivated, and that extrinsic motivation negatively relates to helping behavior. The results of questionnaires and experimentation here contradict the recent literature. Seventy-two percent of subjects reported wealth as a top priority in life. Fifty-six percent of subjects would take an insider trading tip, and 78% of subjects offered help to a confederate who just learned his family member was in an accident and needed to make a telephone call. Logistic regression results showed intrinsic motivation among participants significantly predicted increased helping behavior. It is recommended that surveys used to create new paradigms be followed up with experimentation whenever feasible.
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Ease of retrieval and the moral circle
Simon Laham
Social Psychology, Winter 2013, Pages 33-36
Abstract:
Two studies demonstrate that the ease with which moral circle exemplars come to mind influences the size of the moral circle and moral behavior. Participants who generated three exemplars had significantly larger circles than those asked to generate 15. Further, those who generated three exemplars were more likely to take a newsletter providing information on how to help circle members. These studies demonstrate the impact of metacognitive experiences on moral judgment and behavior, and highlight the importance of including metacognitive variables in any comprehensive account of moral judgment.
Saturday, April 13, 2013
Will do
Petra Schmid & Marianne Schmid Mast
European Journal of Social Psychology, April 2013, Pages 201-211
Abstract:
We tested whether power reduces responses related to social stress and thus increases performance evaluation in social evaluation situations. We hypothesized and found that thinking about having power reduced fear of negative evaluation and physiological arousal during a self-presentation task (Studies 1 and 2). In Study 2, we also showed that simply thinking about having power made individuals perform better in a social evaluation situation. Our results confirmed our hypotheses that the mechanism explaining this power-performance link was that high power participants felt less fear of negative evaluation. The reduced fear of negative evaluation generated fewer signs of behavioral nervousness, which caused their performance to be evaluated more positively (serial mediation). Simply thinking of having power can therefore have important positive consequences for a person in an evaluation situation in terms of how he or she feels and how he or she is evaluated.
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Money and the fear of death: The symbolic power of money as an existential anxiety buffer
Tomasz Zaleskiewicz et al.
Journal of Economic Psychology, June 2013, Pages 55-67
Abstract:
According to terror management theory, people deal with the potential for anxiety that results from their knowledge of the inevitability of death by holding on to sources of value that exist within their cultural worldview. We propose that money is one such source capable of soothing existential anxiety. We hypothesize that death anxiety would amplify the value attributed to money, and that the presence of money would alleviate death anxiety. Study 1 indicated that individuals reminded of their mortality overestimated the size of coins and monetary notes. In Study 2, participants induced to think about their mortality used higher monetary standards to define a person or family as rich than those in the control condition. Study 3 revealed that people reminded of death desired higher compensation for waiving the immediate payment of money. Finally, Study 4 showed that priming participants with the concept of money reduced self-reported fear of death. We conclude that, beyond its pragmatic utility, money possesses a strong psychological meaning that helps to buffer existential anxiety.
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Priming motivation through unattended speech
Rémi Radel et al.
British Journal of Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study examines whether motivation can be primed through unattended speech. Study 1 used a dichotic-listening paradigm and repeated strength measures. In comparison to the baseline condition, in which the unattended channel was only composed by neutral words, the presence of words related to high (low) intensity of motivation led participants to exert more (less) strength when squeezing a hand dynamometer. In a second study, a barely audible conversation was played while participants' attention was mobilized on a demanding task. Participants who were exposed to a conversation depicting intrinsic motivation performed better and persevered longer in a subsequent word-fragment completion task than those exposed to the same conversation made unintelligible. These findings suggest that motivation can be primed without attention.
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Your Right Arm for a Publication in AER?
Arthur Attema, Werner Brouwer & Job Van Exel
Economic Inquiry, forthcoming
Abstract:
The time tradeoff (TTO) method is popular in medical decision making for valuing health states. We use it to elicit economists' preferences for publishing in top economic journals and for living without limbs. The economists value journal publications highly and have a clear preference among them, with the American Economic Review (AER) the most preferred. Their responses imply they would sacrifice more than half a thumb for an AER publication. These TTO results are consistent with ranking and willingness to pay results, and indicate that journal preferences are not entirely determined by impact factors or by expectations of a salary increase following a publication in a prestigious journal.
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Children with autism can track others' beliefs in a competitive game
Candida Peterson et al.
Developmental Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Theory of mind (ToM) development, assessed via ‘litmus' false belief tests, is severely delayed in autism, but the standard testing procedure may underestimate these children's genuine understanding. To explore this, we developed a novel test involving competition to win a reward as the motive for tracking other players' beliefs (the ‘Dot-Midge task'). Ninety-six children, including 23 with autism (mean age: 10.36 years), 50 typically developing 4-year-olds (mean age: 4.40) and 23 typically developing 3-year-olds (mean age: 3.59) took a standard ‘Sally-Ann' false belief test, the Dot-Midge task (which was closely matched to the Sally-Ann task procedure) and a norm-referenced verbal ability test. Results revealed that, of the children with autism, 74% passed the Dot-Midge task, yet only 13% passed the standard Sally-Ann procedure. A similar pattern of performance was observed in the older, but not the younger, typically developing control groups. This finding demonstrates that many children with autism who fail motivationally barren standard false belief tests can spontaneously use ToM to track their social partners' beliefs in the context of a competitive game.
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A psychological predictor of elders' driving performance: Social-comparisons on the road
Becca Levy et al.
Journal of Applied Social Psychology, March 2013, Pages 556-561
Abstract:
Older individuals often believe they can drive better than their contemporaries. This belief is an example of downward social-comparisons; they can be self-enhancing tools that lead to beneficial outcomes. As predicted, we found that drivers who engaged in downward social-comparisons were significantly less likely to have adverse driving events over time, after controlling for relevant factors (p = .02). This effect was particularly strong among women, who tend to experience more negative driving stereotypes (p = .01). The study was based on 897 interviews of 117 elder drivers, aged 70-89 years, over 2 years. Our findings suggest that interventions to reduce adverse driving events among elders could benefit from including a psychological component.
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To pay or not to pay? Do extrinsic incentives alter the Köhler group motivation gain?
Norbert Kerr, Deborah Feltz & Brandon Irwin
Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, March 2013, Pages 257-268
Abstract:
The Köhler effect is an increase in task motivation that occurs in performance groups when one is (a) less capable than one's fellow group members, and (b) one's efforts are particularly indispensible for group success. Recently, it has been shown that the Köhler effect can dramatically increase one's motivation to exercise. The present study examines the potential moderating effect of the provision of extrinsic incentives on such Köhler motivation gains. When participants were offered such an extrinsic incentive for persisting at an exercise task, a robust Köhler effect was observed - participants who thought they were the less capable member of a dyad working at a conjunctive-group exercise task persisted 26% longer than comparable individual exercisers. But an even stronger effect (a 43% improvement) was observed when no such incentive was on offer. Possible explanations and boundary conditions for this moderating effect are discussed.
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Breaking Monotony with Meaning: Motivation in Crowdsourcing Markets
Dana Chandler & Adam Kapelner
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, forthcoming
Abstract:
We conduct the first natural field experiment to explore the relationship between the "meaningfulness" of a task and worker effort. We employed about 2,500 workers from Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk), an online labor market, to label medical images. Although given an identical task, we experimentally manipulated how the task was framed. Subjects in the meaningful treatment were told that they were labeling tumor cells in order to assist medical researchers, subjects in the zero-context condition (the control group) were not told the purpose of the task, and, in stark contrast, subjects in the shredded treatment were not given context and were additionally told that their work would be discarded. We found that when a task was framed more meaningfully, workers were more likely to participate. We also found that the meaningful treatment increased the quantity of output (with an insignificant change in quality) while the shredded treatment decreased the quality of output (with no change in quantity). We believe these results will generalize to other short-term labor markets. Our study also discusses MTurk as an exciting platform for running natural field experiments in economics.
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Keeping it real: Self-control depletion increases accuracy, but decreases confidence for performance
Amber DeBono & Mark Muraven
Journal of Applied Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
We propose that egotism about one's abilities may be related to good self-regulation and a lack of self-control may reduce estimations of aptitudes. Self-control depletion should lead to more accurate and therefore less lofty predictions of future performances. In two experiments, self-control depletion was manipulated by having participants either resist tempting cookies or by inhibiting thoughts about a white bear. In both cases, nondepleted participants made bolder predictions about their future performance on a video game than their depleted counterparts. Instead, depleted participants were more modest in their predictions and more accurate in their predictions than nondepleted participants. These findings suggest that depletion undermines self-assurance in oneself, which may have implications for theories of depressive realism, accuracy, confidence, and goal setting.
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Mental Contrasting Changes the Meaning of Reality
Andreas Kappes et al.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Mental contrasting of a desired future with the present reality strengthens goal pursuit when expectations of success are high, and weakens goal pursuit when expectations of success are low. We hypothesized that mental contrasting effects on selective goal pursuit are mediated by a change in the meaning of the present reality as an obstacle towards reaching the desired future. Using explicit evaluation of reality (Study 1), implicit categorization of reality as obstacle (Study 2), and detection of obstacle (Study 3) as indicators, we found that mental contrasting (versus relevant control groups) fostered the meaning of reality as obstacle when expectations of success were high, but weakened it when expectations of success were low. Importantly, the meaning of reality as obstacle mediated mental contrasting effects on goal pursuit (Study 1, 2). The findings suggest that mental contrasting produces selective goal pursuit by changing the meaning of a person's reality.
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Time Pressure Undermines Performance More Under Avoidance Than Approach Motivation
Marieke Roskes et al.
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, forthcoming
Abstract:
Four experiments were designed to test the hypothesis that performance is particularly undermined by time pressure when people are avoidance motivated. The results supported this hypothesis across three different types of tasks, including those well suited and those ill suited to the type of information processing evoked by avoidance motivation. We did not find evidence that stress-related emotions were responsible for the observed effect. Avoidance motivation is certainly necessary and valuable in the self-regulation of everyday behavior. However, our results suggest that given its nature and implications, it seems best that avoidance motivation is avoided in situations that involve (time) pressure.
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Mario Wenzel, Tamlin Conner & Thomas Kubiak
European Journal of Social Psychology, April 2013, Pages 175-184
Abstract:
Performing consecutive self-control tasks typically leads to deterioration in self-control performance. This effect can be explained within the strength model of self-control or within a cognitive control perspective. Both theoretical frameworks differ in their predictions with regard to the impact of affect and task characteristics on self-control deterioration within a two-task paradigm. Whereas the strength model predicts decrements in self-control performance whenever both tasks require a limited resource, under a cognitive control perspective, decrements should only occur when people switch to a different response conflict in the second task. Moreover, only the cognitive control model predicts an interaction between task switching and positive affect. In the present research, we investigated this interaction within a two-task paradigm and found evidence that favored a cognitive control interpretation of the results. Positive affect only benefitted consecutive self-control performance if response conflicts in the two tasks were different (resisting sweets followed by a Stroop task). If they were the same (two consecutive Stroop tasks), positive affect impaired self-control performance. These effects were partially replicated in the second study that also examined negative affect, which did not affect self-control performance. We conclude that drawing on cognitive control models could add substantially to research on self-control.
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Implicit Attitudes Toward the Self Over Time
Johanna Peetz, Christian Jordan & Anne Wilson
Self and Identity, forthcoming
Abstract:
Three studies examined whether people hold meaningful implicit attitudes toward future selves. Two approaches to measuring implicit future self-esteem were developed (individualized and generic Implicit Association Tests) and attitudes toward the self in ten (Studies 1 and 2) or one years' time (Study 3) were assessed. We predicted that implicit future self-esteem would be less strongly influenced by self-enhancement and wishful thinking than explicit future self-esteem. Consistent with this expectation, people's explicit self-esteem was more positive toward their future than their current self, whereas implicit future self-esteem was not enhanced relative to the present. As expected, implicit (but not explicit) future self-esteem predicted academic and health motivation, as well as greater elaboration of, and more structure in, future goals. In contrast, explicit (but not implicit) future self-esteem predicted future-oriented measures more linked to wishful thinking: positive fantasies and general optimism. These results suggest that implicit future self-esteem is meaningfully distinct from explicit future self-esteem and has implications for motivation and goals.
Friday, April 12, 2013
If you can't take the heat
Climate Amenities, Climate Change, and American Quality of Life
David Albouy et al.
NBER Working Paper, March 2013
Abstract:
We present a hedonic framework to estimate U.S. households' preferences over local climates, using detailed weather and 2000 Census data. We find that Americans favor an average daily temperature of 65 degrees Fahrenheit, will pay more on the margin to avoid excess heat than cold, and are not substantially more averse to extremes than to temperatures that are merely uncomfortable. These preferences vary by location due to sorting or adaptation. Changes in climate amenities under business-as-usual predictions imply annual welfare losses of 1 to 3 percent of income by 2100, holding technology and preferences constant.
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Stephan Lewandowsky, Klaus Oberauer & Gilles Gignac
Psychological Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although nearly all domain experts agree that carbon dioxide emissions are altering the world's climate, segments of the public remain unconvinced by the scientific evidence. Internet blogs have become a platform for denial of climate change, and bloggers have taken a prominent role in questioning climate science. We report a survey of climate-blog visitors to identify the variables underlying acceptance and rejection of climate science. Our findings parallel those of previous work and show that endorsement of free-market economics predicted rejection of climate science. Endorsement of free markets also predicted the rejection of other established scientific findings, such as the facts that HIV causes AIDS and that smoking causes lung cancer. We additionally show that, above and beyond endorsement of free markets, endorsement of a cluster of conspiracy theories (e.g., that the Federal Bureau of Investigation killed Martin Luther King, Jr.) predicted rejection of climate science as well as other scientific findings. Our results provide empirical support for previous suggestions that conspiratorial thinking contributes to the rejection of science. Acceptance of science, by contrast, was strongly associated with the perception of a consensus among scientists.
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The pivotal role of perceived scientific consensus in acceptance of science
Stephan Lewandowsky, Gilles Gignac & Samuel Vaughan
Nature Climate Change, April 2013, Pages 399-404
Abstract:
Although most experts agree that CO2 emissions are causing anthropogenic global warming (AGW), public concern has been declining. One reason for this decline is the ‘manufacture of doubt' by political and vested interests, which often challenge the existence of the scientific consensus. The role of perceived consensus in shaping public opinion is therefore of considerable interest: in particular, it is unknown whether consensus determines people's beliefs causally. It is also unclear whether perception of consensus can override people's ‘worldviews', which are known to foster rejection of AGW. Study 1 shows that acceptance of several scientific propositions - from HIV/AIDS to AGW - is captured by a common factor that is correlated with another factor that captures perceived scientific consensus. Study 2 reveals a causal role of perceived consensus by showing that acceptance of AGW increases when consensus is highlighted. Consensus information also neutralizes the effect of worldview.
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A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years
Shaun Marcott et al.
Science, 8 March 2013, Pages 1198-1201
Abstract:
Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time. Here we provide a broader perspective by reconstructing regional and global temperature anomalies for the past 11,300 years from 73 globally distributed records. Early Holocene (10,000 to 5000 years ago) warmth is followed by ~0.7°C cooling through the middle to late Holocene (<5000 years ago), culminating in the coolest temperatures of the Holocene during the Little Ice Age, about 200 years ago. This cooling is largely associated with ~2°C change in the North Atlantic. Current global temperatures of the past decade have not yet exceeded peak interglacial values but are warmer than during ~75% of the Holocene temperature history. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections for 2100 exceed the full distribution of Holocene temperature under all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
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Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures
Aslak Grinsted, John Moore & Svetlana Jevrejeva
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2 April 2013, Pages 5369-5373
Abstract:
Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity are hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here, we relate a homogeneous record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity based on storm surge statistics from tide gauges to changes in global temperature patterns. We examine 10 competing hypotheses using nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis with different predictors (North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Sahel rainfall, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, radiative forcing, Main Development Region temperatures and its anomaly, global temperatures, and gridded temperatures). We find that gridded temperatures, Main Development Region, and global average temperature explain the observations best. The most extreme events are especially sensitive to temperature changes, and we estimate a doubling of Katrina magnitude events associated with the warming over the 20th century. The increased risk depends on the spatial distribution of the temperature rise with highest sensitivity from tropical Atlantic, Central America, and the Indian Ocean. Statistically downscaling 21st century warming patterns from six climate models results in a twofold to sevenfold increase in the frequency of Katrina magnitude events for a 1 °C rise in global temperature (using BNU-ESM, BCC-CSM-1.1, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, INM-CM4, and NorESM1-M).
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Mark Jacobson et al.
Energy Policy, June 2013, Pages 585-601
Abstract:
This study analyzes a plan to convert New York State's (NYS's) all-purpose (for electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) energy infrastructure to one derived entirely from wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) generating electricity and electrolytic hydrogen. Under the plan, NYS's 2030 all-purpose end-use power would be provided by 10% onshore wind (4020 5-MW turbines), 40% offshore wind (12,700 5-MW turbines), 10% concentrated solar (387 100-MW plants), 10% solar-PV plants (828 50-MW plants), 6% residential rooftop PV (∼5 million 5-kW systems), 12% commercial/government rooftop PV (∼500,000 100-kW systems), 5% geothermal (36 100-MW plants), 0.5% wave (1910 0.75-MW devices), 1% tidal (2600 1-MW turbines), and 5.5% hydroelectric (6.6 1300-MW plants, of which 89% exist). The conversion would reduce NYS's end-use power demand ∼37% and stabilize energy prices since fuel costs would be zero. It would create more jobs than lost because nearly all NYS energy would now be produced in-state. NYS air pollution mortality and its costs would decline by ∼4000 (1200-7600) deaths/yr, and $33 (10-76) billion/yr (3% of 2010 NYS GDP), respectively, alone repaying the 271 GW installed power needed within ∼17 years, before accounting for electricity sales. NYS's own emission decreases would reduce 2050 U.S. climate costs by ∼$3.2 billion/yr.
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Assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change
David Frame & Dáithí Stone
Nature Climate Change, April 2013, Pages 357-359
Abstract:
In 1990, climate scientists from around the world wrote the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It contained a prediction of the global mean temperature trend over the 1990-2030 period that, halfway through that period, seems accurate. This is all the more remarkable in hindsight, considering that a number of important external forcings were not included. So how did this success arise? In the end, the greenhouse-gas-induced warming is largely overwhelming the other forcings, which are only of secondary importance on the 20-year timescale.
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The economic impact of climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries
Richard Tol
Climatic Change, April 2013, Pages 795-808
Abstract:
The national version of FUND3.6 is used to backcast the impacts of climate change to the 20th century and extrapolate to the 21st century. Carbon dioxide fertilization of crops and reduced energy demand for heating are the main positive impacts. Climate change had a negative effect on water resources and, in most years, human health. Most countries benefitted from climate change until 1980, but after that the trend is negative for poor countries and positive for rich countries. The global average impact was positive in the 20th century. In the 21st century, impacts turn negative in most countries, rich and poor. Energy demand, water resources, biodiversity and sea level rise are the main negative impacts; the impacts of climate change on human health and agriculture remain positive until 2100.
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Climate change, wine, and conservation
Lee Hannah et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.
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Your opinion on climate change might not be as common as you think
Z. Leviston, I. Walker & S. Morwinski
Nature Climate Change, April 2013, Pages 334-337
Abstract:
Political and media debate on the existence and causes of climate change has become increasingly factious in several western countries, often resting on claims and counter-claims about what most citizens really think. There are several well-established phenomena in psychology about how people perceive the prevalence of opinions, including the false consensus effect (a tendency to overestimate how common one's ‘own' opinion is) and pluralistic ignorance (where most people privately reject an opinion, but assume incorrectly that most others accept it). We investigated these biases in people's opinions about the existence and causes of climate change. In two surveys conducted 12 months apart in Australia (n = 5,036; n = 5,030), respondents were asked their own opinion about the nature of climate change, and then asked to estimate levels of opinion among the general population. We demonstrate that opinions about climate change are subject to strong false consensus effects, that people grossly overestimate the numbers of people who reject the existence of climate change in the broader community, and that people with high false consensus bias are less likely to change their opinions.
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External costs of nuclear: Greater or less than the alternatives?
Ari Rabl & Veronika Rabl
Energy Policy, June 2013, Pages 575-584
Abstract:
Since Fukushima many are calling for a shutdown of nuclear power plants. To see whether such a shutdown would reduce the risks for health and environment, the external costs of nuclear electricity are compared with alternatives that could replace it. The frequency of catastrophic nuclear accidents is based on the historical record, about one in 25 years for the plants built to date, an order of magnitude higher than the safety goals of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Impacts similar to Chernobyl and Fukushima are assumed to estimate the cost. A detailed comparison is presented with wind as alternative with the lowest external cost. The variability of wind necessitates augmentation by other sources, primarily fossil fuels, because storage at the required scale is in most regions too expensive. The external costs of natural gas combined cycle are taken as 0.6 €cent/kWh due to health effects of air pollution and 1.25 €cent/kWh due to greenhouse gases (at 25€/tCO2eq) for the central estimate, but a wide range of different parameters is also considered, both for nuclear and for the alternatives. Although the central estimate of external costs of the wind-based alternative is higher than that of nuclear, the uncertainty ranges overlap.
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Benjamin Preston
Global Environmental Change, forthcoming
Abstract:
Despite improvements in disaster risk management in the United States, a trend toward increasing economic losses from extreme weather events has been observed. This trend has been attributed to growth in socioeconomic exposure to extremes, a process characterized by strong path dependence. To understand the influence of path dependence on past and future losses, an index of potential socioeconomic exposure was developed at the U.S. county level based upon population size and inflation-adjusted wealth proxies. Since 1960, exposure has increased preferentially in the U.S. Southeast (particularly coastal and urban counties) and Southwest relative to the Great Plains and Northeast. Projected changes in exposure from 2009 to 2054 based upon scenarios of future demographic and economic change suggest a long-term commitment to increasing, but spatially heterogeneous, exposure to extremes, independent of climate change. The implications of this path dependence are examined in the context of several natural hazards. Using methods previously reported in the literature, annualized county-level losses from 1960 to 2008 for five climate-related natural hazards were normalized to 2009 values and then scaled based upon projected changes in exposure and two different estimates of the exposure elasticity of losses. Results indicate that losses from extreme events will grow by a factor of 1.3-1.7 and 1.8-3.9 by 2025 and 2050, respectively, with the exposure elasticity representing a major source of uncertainty. The implications of increasing physical vulnerability to extreme weather events for investments in disaster risk management are ultimately contingent upon the normative values of societal actors.
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The relationship between personal experience and belief in the reality of global warming
Teresa Myers et al.
Nature Climate Change, April 2013, Pages 343-347
Abstract:
In this paper, we address the chicken-or-egg question posed by two alternative explanations for the relationship between perceived personal experience of global warming and belief certainty that global warming is happening: Do observable climate impacts create opportunities for people to become more certain of the reality of global warming, or does prior belief certainty shape people's perceptions of impacts through a process of motivated reasoning? We use data from a nationally representative sample of Americans surveyed first in 2008 and again in 2011; these longitudinal data allow us to evaluate the causal relationships between belief certainty and perceived experience, assessing the impact of each on the other over time. Among the full survey sample, we found that both processes occurred: ‘experiential learning', where perceived personal experience of global warming led to increased belief certainty, and ‘motivated reasoning', where high belief certainty influenced perceptions of personal experience. We then tested and confirmed the hypothesis that motivated reasoning occurs primarily among people who are already highly engaged in the issue whereas experiential learning occurs primarily among people who are less engaged in the issue, which is particularly important given that approximately 75% of American adults currently have low levels of engagement.
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Michael Sivak
Environmental Research Letters, Winter 2013
Abstract:
Energy demand for climate control was analyzed for Miami (the warmest large metropolitan area in the US) and Minneapolis (the coldest large metropolitan area). The following relevant parameters were included in the analysis: (1) climatological deviations from the desired indoor temperature as expressed in heating and cooling degree days, (2) efficiencies of heating and cooling appliances, and (3) efficiencies of power-generating plants. The results indicate that climate control in Minneapolis is about 3.5 times as energy demanding as in Miami. This finding suggests that, in the US, living in cold climates is more energy demanding than living in hot climates.
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Recent temperature extremes at high northern latitudes unprecedented in the past 600 years
Martin Tingley & Peter Huybers
Nature, 11 April 2013, Pages 201-205
Abstract:
Recently observed extreme temperatures at high northern latitudes are rare by definition, making the longer time span afforded by climate proxies important for assessing how the frequency of such extremes may be changing. Previous reconstructions of past temperature variability have demonstrated that recent warmth is anomalous relative to preceding centuries or millennia, but extreme events can be more thoroughly evaluated using a spatially resolved approach that provides an ensemble of possible temperature histories. Here, using a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of instrumental, tree-ring, ice-core and lake-sediment records, we show that the magnitude and frequency of recent warm temperature extremes at high northern latitudes are unprecedented in the past 600 years. The summers of 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2011 were warmer than those of all prior years back to 1400 (probability P > 0.95), in terms of the spatial average. The summer of 2010 was the warmest in the previous 600 years in western Russia (P > 0.99) and probably the warmest in western Greenland and the Canadian Arctic as well (P > 0.90). These and other recent extremes greatly exceed those expected from a stationary climate, but can be understood as resulting from constant space-time variability about an increased mean temperature.
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Changing social contracts in climate-change adaptation
Neil Adger et al.
Nature Climate Change, April 2013, Pages 330-333
Abstract:
Risks from extreme weather events are mediated through state, civil society and individual action. We propose evolving social contracts as a primary mechanism by which adaptation to climate change proceeds. We use a natural experiment of policy and social contexts of the UK and Ireland affected by the same meteorological event and resultant flooding in November 2009. We analyse data from policy documents and from household surveys of 356 residents in western Ireland and northwest England. We find significant differences between perceptions of individual responsibility for protection across the jurisdictions and between perceptions of future risk from populations directly affected by flooding events. These explain differences in stated willingness to take individual adaptive actions when state support retrenches. We therefore show that expectations for state protection are critical in mediating impacts and promoting longer-term adaptation. We argue that making social contracts explicit may smooth pathways to effective and legitimate adaptation.
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Energy use and CO2 emissions of China's industrial sector from a global perspective
Sheng Zhou et al.
Energy Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
The industrial sector has accounted for more than 50% of China's final energy consumption in the past 30 years. Understanding the future emissions and emissions mitigation opportunities depends on proper characterization of the present-day industrial energy use, as well as industrial demand drivers and technological opportunities in the future. Traditionally, however, integrated assessment research has handled the industrial sector of China in a highly aggregate form. In this study, we develop a technologically detailed, service-oriented representation of 11 industrial subsectors in China, and analyze a suite of scenarios of future industrial demand growth. We find that, due to anticipated saturation of China's per-capita demands of basic industrial goods, industrial energy demand and CO2 emissions approach a plateau between 2030 and 2040, then decrease gradually. Still, without emissions mitigation policies, the industrial sector remains heavily reliant on coal, and therefore emissions-intensive. With carbon prices, we observe some degree of industrial sector electrification, deployment of CCS at large industrial point sources of CO2 emissions at low carbon prices, an increase in the share of CHP systems at industrial facilities. These technological responses amount to reductions of industrial emissions (including indirect emission from electricity) are of 24% in 2050 and 66% in 2095.
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Trends in hourly rainfall statistics in the United States under a warming climate
T. Muschinski & J.I. Katz
Nature Climate Change, forthcoming
Abstract:
It is now widely accepted that the mean world climate has warmed since the beginning of climatologically significant anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. Warming may be accompanied by changes in the rate of extreme weather events such as severe storms and drought. Here we use hourly precipitation data from 13 stations in the 48 contiguous United States to determine trends in the frequency of such events, taking the normalized variance and a renormalized fourth moment of the precipitation measurements, averaged over decades, as objective measures of the frequency and severity of extreme weather. Using data mostly from the period 1940-1999 but also two longer data series, periods that include the rapid warming that seems to have begun at approximately 1970, we find a significant increase of 6.5±1.3%(1σ) per decade in the normalized variance at a site on the Olympic Peninsula at which it is low. We place statistical limits on any trend at the remaining 12 sites, where the normalized variance and its uncertainty are larger. At most sites these limits are consistent with the same rate of linear increase as at the Olympic Peninsula site, but exclude the same rate of percentage increase.
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Ocean acidification and its impacts: An expert survey
Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Katharine Mach & Granger Morgan
Climatic Change, April 2013, Pages 725-738
Abstract:
The oceans moderate the rate and severity of climate change by absorbing massive amounts of anthropogenic CO2 but this results in large-scale changes in seawater chemistry, which are collectively referred to as anthropogenic ocean acidification. Despite its potentially widespread consequences, the problem of ocean acidification has been largely absent from most policy discussions of CO2 emissions, both because the science is relatively new and because the research community has yet to deliver a clear message to decision makers regarding its impacts. Here we report the results of the first expert survey in the field of ocean acidification. Fifty-three experts, who had previously participated in an IPCC workshop, were asked to assess 22 declarative statements about ocean acidification and its consequences. We find a relatively strong consensus on most issues related to past, present and future chemical aspects of ocean acidification: non-anthropogenic ocean acidification events have occurred in the geological past, anthropogenic CO2 emissions are the main (but not the only) mechanism generating the current ocean acidification event, and anthropogenic ocean acidification that has occurred due to historical fossil fuel emissions will be felt for centuries. Experts generally agreed that there will be impacts on biological and ecological processes and biogeochemical feedbacks but levels of agreement were lower, with more variability across responses. Levels of agreement were higher for statements regarding calcification, primary production and nitrogen fixation than for those about impacts on foodwebs. The levels of agreement for statements pertaining to socio-economic impacts, such as impacts on food security, and to more normative policy issues, were relatively low.
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Changing Frequency of Heavy Rainfall over the Central United States
Gabriele Villarini, James Smith & Gabriel Vecchi
Journal of Climate, January 2013, Pages 351-357
Abstract:
Records of daily rainfall accumulations from 447 rain gauge stations over the central United States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi) are used to assess past changes in the frequency of heavy rainfall. Each station has a record of at least 50 yr, and the data cover most of the twentieth century and the first decade of the twenty-first century. Analyses are performed using a peaks-over-threshold approach, and, for each station, the 95th percentile is used as the threshold. Because of the count nature of the data and to account for both abrupt and slowly varying changes in the heavy rainfall distribution, a segmented regression is used to detect changepoints at unknown points in time. The presence of trends is assessed by means of a Poisson regression model to examine whether the rate of occurrence parameter is a linear function of time (by means of a logarithmic link function). The results point to increasing trends in heavy rainfall over the northern part of the study domain. Examination of the surface temperature record suggests that these increasing trends occur over the area with the largest increasing trends in temperature and, consequently, with an increase in atmospheric water vapor.
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Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming
Noah Diffenbaugh, Martin Scherer & Moetasim Ashfaq
Nature Climate Change, April 2013, Pages 379-384
Abstract:
Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed, the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate-change impacts. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near-term decades and at 2 °C global warming. The occurrence of extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2 °C above the pre-industrial baseline.
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Funding Global Public Goods: The Dark Side of Multilateralism
Patrick Bayer & Johannes Urpelainen
Review of Policy Research, March 2013, Pages 160-189
Abstract:
The funding of global public goods, such as climate mitigation, presents a complex strategic problem. Potential recipients demand side payments for implementing projects that furnish global public goods, and donors can cooperate to provide the funding. We offer a game-theoretic analysis of this problem. In our model, a recipient demands project funding. Donors can form a multilateral program to jointly fund the project. If no program is formed, bilateral funding remains a possibility. We find that donors rely on multilateralism if their preferences are relatively symmetric and domestic political constraints on funding are lax. In this case, the recipient secures large rents from project implementation. Thus, even donors with strong interests in global public good provision have incentives to oppose institutional arrangements that promote multilateral funding. These incentives have played an important role in multilateral negotiations on climate finance, especially in Cancun (2010) and Durban (2011).
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Evolutionary change during experimental ocean acidification
Melissa Pespeni et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) conditions are driving unprecedented changes in seawater chemistry, resulting in reduced pH and carbonate ion concentrations in the Earth's oceans. This ocean acidification has negative but variable impacts on individual performance in many marine species. However, little is known about the adaptive capacity of species to respond to an acidified ocean, and, as a result, predictions regarding future ecosystem responses remain incomplete. Here we demonstrate that ocean acidification generates striking patterns of genome-wide selection in purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) cultured under different CO2 levels. We examined genetic change at 19,493 loci in larvae from seven adult populations cultured under realistic future CO2 levels. Although larval development and morphology showed little response to elevated CO2, we found substantial allelic change in 40 functional classes of proteins involving hundreds of loci. Pronounced genetic changes, including excess amino acid replacements, were detected in all populations and occurred in genes for biomineralization, lipid metabolism, and ion homeostasis - gene classes that build skeletons and interact in pH regulation. Such genetic change represents a neglected and important impact of ocean acidification that may influence populations that show few outward signs of response to acidification. Our results demonstrate the capacity for rapid evolution in the face of ocean acidification and show that standing genetic variation could be a reservoir of resilience to climate change in this coastal upwelling ecosystem. However, effective response to strong natural selection demands large population sizes and may be limited in species impacted by other environmental stressors.
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Baby bump
Financial Incentives and Fertility
Alma Cohen, Rajeev Dehejia & Dmitri Romanov
Review of Economics and Statistics, March 2013, Pages 1-20
Abstract:
Using panel data on over 300,000 Israeli women from 1999 to 2005, we exploit variation in Israel's child subsidy to identify the impact of changes in the price of a marginal child on fertility. We find a positive, statistically significant, and economically meaningful price effect on overall fertility and, consistent with Becker (1960) and Becker and Tomes (1976), a small effect of income on fertility, which is negative at low and positive at high income levels. We also find a price effect on fertility among older women, suggesting that part of the overall effect is due to a reduction in total fertility.
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The Effect of Abortion Legalization on Childbearing by Unwed Teenagers in Future Cohorts
Serkan Ozbeklik
Economic Inquiry, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article examines the long-term impact of legalized abortion on childbearing by unwed teenagers in the United States. I find that the 1970 legalization of abortion in the repeal states led to about a 6% reduction in unwed childbearing rates for white women aged 15-20 who were born in these states immediately after abortion became legal. I find a larger long-term impact for African-American women of the same ages: a 7.5%-13% reduction in unwed childbearing. My estimates are smaller and not as precise for the effect of Roe v. Wade. This outcome is not surprising given that I am able to estimate only a potential lower bound of the effect on unwed childbearing rates. On the other hand, when I estimated a Difference-in-Difference regression for the non-repeal states assuming that there was no national trend that affected the childbearing behavior of the treatment age groups and their respective control age groups separately, I found that the true effect of Roe v. Wade on childbearing by unwed teenagers was about an 11% and 3% reductions for white and African-American teenagers, respectively.
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New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises, Falls, and Reversals
Mikko Myrskylä, Joshua Goldstein & Yen-hsin Alice Cheng
Population and Development Review, March 2013, Pages 31-56
Abstract:
With period fertility having risen in many low-fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether cohort fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of cohort fertility for 37 developed countries using a new, simple method that avoids the underestimation typical of previous approaches. Consistent with the idea that timing changes were largely responsible for the last decades' low period fertility, we find that family size has remained considerably higher than the period rates of 1.5 in many "low-fertility" countries, averaging about 1.8 children. Our forecasts suggest that the long-term decline in cohort fertility is flattening or reversing in many world regions previously characterized by low fertility. We document the marked increase of cohort fertility in the English-speaking world and in Scandinavia; signs of an upward reversal in many low-fertility countries, including Japan and Germany; and continued declines in countries such as Taiwan and Portugal. We include in our forecasts estimates of statistical uncertainty and the possible effects of the recent economic recession.
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Reyn van Ewijk, Rebecca Painter & Tessa Roseboom
American Journal of Epidemiology, forthcoming
Abstract:
A growing body of evidence suggests that maternal diet during pregnancy can lead to permanent alterations to the physiology of the fetus. It is unknown whether intermittent maternal fasting during Ramadan has long-term associations with the offspring's body composition. By using data from the third wave of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (2000), we compared the body mass indices (weight (kg)/height (m)2) of Muslims who had been in utero during Ramadan with those of Muslims who had not been in utero during Ramadan. Adult Muslims who had been in utero during Ramadan were slightly thinner than Muslims who had not been in utero during Ramadan (adjusted adult body mass index: -0.32, 95% confidence interval: -0.57, -0.06). Those who were conceived during Ramadan also had smaller stature, being on average 0.80 cm shorter than those who were not exposed to Ramadan prenatally. Among non-Muslims, no such associations were found. This study suggests that exposure to Ramadan during pregnancy may have lasting consequences for adult body size of the offspring.
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Arindam Nandi & Anil Deolalikar
Journal of Development Economics, July 2013, Pages 216-228
Abstract:
Despite strong recent economic growth, gender inequality remains a major concern for India. This paper examines the effectiveness of a public policy geared towards the reduction of gender inequality. The national Pre-Conception and Pre-Natal Diagnostics Techniques (PNDT) Act of 1994, implemented in 1996, banned sex-selective abortions in India. Although demographers frequently mention the futility of the Act, we are among the first to evaluate the law using a treatment-effect analysis framework. Using village and town level longitudinal data from the 1991 and 2001 censuses, we find a significantly positive impact of the PNDT Act on female-to-male child sex ratio. Given the almost ubiquitous decline in the observed child sex ratio during this period, we argue that the law was successful in preventing any further worsening of the gender imbalance. We find that a possible absence of the law would have led to at least 106,000 fewer female children.
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Thomas Pollet, Kelly Cobey & Leander van der Meij
PLoS ONE, April 2013
Abstract:
Variation in testosterone (T) is thought to affect the allocation of effort between reproductive and parenting strategies. Here, using a large sample of elderly American men (n = 754) and women (n = 669) we examined the relationship between T and self-reported parenthood, as well as the relationship between T and number of reported children. Results supported previous findings from the literature, showing that fathers had lower T levels than men who report no children. Furthermore, we found that among fathers T levels were positively associated with the number of children a man reports close to the end of his lifespan. Results were maintained when controlling for a number of relevant factors such as time of T sampling, participant age, educational attainment, BMI, marital status and reported number of sex partners. In contrast, T was not associated with either motherhood or the number of children women had, suggesting that, at least in this sample, T does not influence the allocation of effort between reproductive and parenting strategies among women. Findings from this study contribute to the growing body of literature suggesting that, among men, pair bonding and paternal care are associated with lower T levels, while searching and acquiring sex partners is associated with higher T levels.
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Contraceptive use and unmet need for family planning in Iran
Mohammad Motlaq et al.
International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics, May 2013, Pages 157-161
Objective: To determine the prevalence of contraceptive use and unmet need for family planning in Iran and to explore the public-health implications.
Methods: A nationwide cross-sectional study was conducted by interviewing 2120 married women aged 15-49 years. The sample population was enrolled in 6 large Iranian cities (Tehran, Mashhad, Tabriz, Isfahan, Shiraz, and Ahvaz) and 2 small cities (Zahedan and Kerman) from September 22 to December 20, 2011.
Results: The overall contraceptive prevalence rate was 81.5% and the unmet need for any method of contraception was 2.6% (95% confidence interval, 2.0%-3.3%). Given the frequency of women who used traditional contraceptive methods (22.3%), the unmet need for modern methods was estimated as 17.4%. The main reasons given for unmet need for family planning were low perceived risk of pregnancy (41.8%) and family opposition (21.8%). Unwanted pregnancy was reported by 30.7% of the participants.
Conclusion: A high rate of unmet need for modern contraceptive methods might potentially lead to increased rates of unwanted pregnancies and induced abortions. Healthcare policymakers should, therefore, be warned against a sense of complacency that family planning in Iran does not need their support.
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Douglas Almond, Lena Edlund & Kevin Milligan
Population and Development Review, March 2013, Pages 75-95
Abstract:
Preference for sons over daughters, evident in China's and South Asia's male sex ratios, is commonly rationalized by poverty and the need for old-age support. In this article we study South and East Asian immigrants to Canada, a group for whom the economic imperative to select sons is largely absent. Analyzing the 2001 and 2006 censuses, 20 percent samples, we find clear evidence of extensive sex selection in favor of boys at higher parities among South and East Asian immigrants unless they are Christian or Muslim. The latter finding accords with the explicit prohibition against (female) infanticide - traditionally the main sex-selection method - in these religions. Our findings point to a strong cultural component to both the preference for sons and the willingness to resort to induced abortion based on sex.
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Autism Risk Across Generations: A Population-Based Study of Advancing Grandpaternal and Paternal Age
Emma Frans et al.
JAMA Psychiatry, forthcoming
Objective: To further expand knowledge about the association between paternal age and autism by studying the effect of grandfathers' age on childhood autism.
Design: Population-based, multigenerational, case-control study.
Setting: Nationwide multigeneration and patient registers in Sweden.
Participants: We conducted a study of individuals born in Sweden since 1932. Parental age at birth was obtained for more than 90% of the cohort. Grandparental age at the time of birth of the parent was obtained for a smaller subset (5936 cases and 30 923 controls).
Main Outcome and Measure: International Classification of Diseases diagnosis of childhood autism in the patient registry.
Results: A statistically significant monotonic association was found between advancing grandpaternal age at the time of birth of the parent and risk of autism in grandchildren. Men who had fathered a daughter when they were 50 years or older were 1.79 times (95% CI, 1.35-2.37; P < .001) more likely to have a grandchild with autism, and men who had fathered a son when they were 50 years or older were 1.67 times (95% CI, 1.35-2.37; P < .001) more likely to have a grandchild with autism, compared with men who had fathered children when they were 20 to 24 years old, after controlling for birth year and sex of the child, age of the spouse, family history of psychiatric disorders, highest family educational level, and residential county. A statistically significant monotonic association was also found between advancing paternal age and risk of autism in the offspring. Sensitivity analyses indicated that these findings were not the result of bias due to missing data on grandparental age.
Conclusions and Relevance: Advanced grandparental age was associated with increased risk of autism, suggesting that risk of autism could develop over generations. The results are consistent with mutations and/or epigenetic alterations associated with advancing paternal age.
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Tim Savage et al.
PLoS ONE, March 2013
Background: Maternal age at childbirth continues to increase worldwide. We aimed to assess whether increasing maternal age is associated with changes in childhood height, body composition, and metabolism.
Methods: 277 healthy pre-pubertal children, born 37-41 weeks gestation were studied. Assessments included: height and weight corrected for parental measurements, DEXA-derived body composition, fasting lipids, glucose, insulin, and hormonal profiles. Subjects were separated according to maternal age at childbirth: <30, 30-35, and >35 years.
Results: Our cohort consisted of 126 girls and 151 boys, aged 7.4±2.2 years (range 3-10); maternal age at childbirth was 33.3±4.7 years (range 19-44). Children of mothers aged >35 and 30-35 years at childbirth were taller than children of mothers aged <30 years by 0.26 (p = 0.002) and 0.23 (p = 0.042) SDS, respectively. There was a reduction in childhood BMISDS with increasing maternal age at childbirth, and children of mothers aged >35 years at childbirth were 0.61 SDS slimmer than those of mothers <30 years (p = 0.049). Children of mothers aged 30-35 (p = 0.022) and >35 (p = 0.036) years at childbirth had abdominal adiposity reduced by 10% and 13%, respectively, compared to those in the <30 group. Children of mothers aged 30-35 years at childbirth displayed a 19% increase in IGF-I concentrations compared to offspring in <30 group (p = 0.042). Conversely, IGF-II concentrations were lower among the children born to mothers aged 30-35 (6.5%; p = 0.004) and >35 (8.1%; p = 0.005) compared to those of mothers aged <30 years. Girls of mothers aged 30-35 years at childbirth also displayed improved HOMA-IR insulin sensitivity (p = 0.010) compared to girls born to mothers aged <30 years.
Conclusions: Increasing maternal age at childbirth is associated with a more favourable phenotype (taller stature and reduced abdominal fat) in their children, as well as improved insulin sensitivity in girls.
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Roland Pongou
Demography, April 2013, Pages 421-444
Abstract:
Infant mortality is higher in boys than girls in most parts of the world. This has been explained by sex differences in genetic and biological makeup, with boys being biologically weaker and more susceptible to diseases and premature death. At the same time, recent studies have found that numerous preconception or prenatal environmental factors affect the probability of a baby being conceived male or female. I propose that these environmental factors also explain sex differences in mortality. I contribute a new methodology of distinguishing between child biology and preconception environment by comparing male-female differences in mortality across opposite-sex twins, same-sex twins, and all twins. Using a large sample of twins from sub-Saharan Africa, I find that both preconception environment and child biology increase the mortality of male infants, but the effect of biology is substantially smaller than the literature suggests. I also estimate the interacting effects of biology with some intrauterine and external environmental factors, including birth order within a twin pair, social status, and climate. I find that a twin is more likely to be male if he is the firstborn, born to an educated mother, or born in certain climatic conditions. Male firstborns are more likely to survive than female firstborns, but only during the neonatal period. Finally, mortality is not affected by the interactions between biology and climate or between biology and social status.
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Geographical Mobility and Reproductive Choices of Italian Men
Raffaele Guetto & Nazareno Panichella
European Sociological Review, April 2013, Pages 302-315
Abstract:
In addition to women's increased educational attainment and institutional settings, also changed orientations toward family to achieve full life-satisfaction have been underlined to explain low fertility rates. Since Southern and Northern Italy differ for the institutional and economic setting, cultural orientations regarding the importance of family as well as fertility rates, also for Italy it seems reasonable to suppose that the latter are caused by both ‘structural' and ‘cultural' factors. We argue that South-to-North migrations could be an interpretative key of geographical differences in the timing and number of childbirths. In fact, migrants are socialized to different familiar behaviours, although they share with Northerners the same institutional and economic setting. We use data from the Italian Households Longitudinal Survey and apply event history models to Italian men's transition to parenthood. Our results show that North-South differences in the transition to the first child are largely explained by different levels and patterns of female labour market participation, while preferences could have a crucial impact in the transition to the second child, where migrants and Southerners are equally much faster than Northerners. We think that these results contribute to both the literature about fertility determinants and long-term consequences of migrations.
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The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth
Quamrul Ashraf, David Weil & Joshua Wilde
Population and Development Review, March 2013, Pages 97-130
Abstract:
We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into childrearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection in Nigeria. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years. We conclude with a discussion of the quantitative significance of these results.
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Laure Dossus et al.
International Journal of Epidemiology, April 2013, Pages 590-600
Background: Age at menarche is an important determinant of hormonal-related neoplasia and other chronic diseases. Spatial and temporal variations in age at menarche have been observed in industrialised countries and several environmental factors were reported to have an influence.
Method: We examined geographical variations in self-reported age at menarche and explored the effects of both latitude and ultraviolet radiation (UVR) dose on the onset of menarche in 88 278 women from the French E3N cohort (aged 40-65 years at inclusion).
Results: The mean age at menarche was 12.8 years. After adjustment for potential confounders (birth cohort, prematurity, birth weight and length, father's income index, body silhouette in childhood, food deprivation during World War II, population of birthplace, number of siblings, breastfeeding exposure and indoor exposure to passive smoking during childhood), latitude and UVR dose (annual or spring/summer) in county of birth were significantly associated with age at menarche (Ptrend < 0.0001). Women born at lower latitudes or in regions with higher annual or spring/summer UVR dose had a 3- to 4-month earlier menarche than women born at higher latitudes or in regions with lower UVR. On a continuous scale, a 1° increment in latitude resulted in a 0.04-year older age at menarche [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.03, 0.05], whereas a 1-kJ/m2 increment in annual UVR dose resulted in a 0.42-year younger age at menarche (95% CI: -0.55, -0.29).
Conclusion: These data further suggest that light exposure in childhood may influence sexual maturation in women.
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The Impact of Malaria Eradication on Fertility
Adrienne Lucas
Economic Development and Cultural Change, April 2013, Pages 607-631
Abstract:
The malaria eradication campaign that started in Sri Lanka in the late 1940s virtually eliminated malaria transmission on the island. I use the preeradication differences in malaria endemicity within Sri Lanka to identify the effect of malaria eradication on fertility and child survival. Malaria eradication increased the number of live births through increasing age-specific fertility and causing an earlier first birth. The effect of malaria on the transition time to higher-order births is inconclusive. Malaria could directly or indirectly affect survival probabilities of live births. I exploit the particular epidemiology of malaria that causes more severe sequelae during an initial pregnancy. I find differential changes in survival probabilities by birth order that are most likely due to the direct in utero effects of malaria. The increase in population growth after malaria eradication reconciles the contradictory findings in the macroeconomic and microeconomic literatures: the increased productivity and education from malaria eradication will only appear in aggregate measures like GDP per capita after a delay because of the initial increase in the population size.
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Parent-Offspring Conflict and the Persistence of Pregnancy-Induced Hypertension in Modern Humans
Birgitte Hollegaard et al.
PLoS ONE, February 2013
Abstract:
Preeclampsia is a major cause of perinatal mortality and disease affecting 5-10% of all pregnancies worldwide, but its etiology remains poorly understood despite considerable research effort. Parent-offspring conflict theory suggests that such hypertensive disorders of pregnancy may have evolved through the ability of fetal genes to increase maternal blood pressure as this enhances general nutrient supply. However, such mechanisms for inducing hypertension in pregnancy would need to incur sufficient offspring health benefits to compensate for the obvious risks for maternal and fetal health towards the end of pregnancy in order to explain why these disorders have not been removed by natural selection in our hunter-gatherer ancestors. We analyzed >750,000 live births in the Danish National Patient Registry and all registered medical diagnoses for up to 30 years after birth. We show that offspring exposed to pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH) in trimester 1 had significantly reduced overall later-life disease risks, but increased risks when PIH exposure started or developed as preeclampsia in later trimesters. Similar patterns were found for first-year mortality. These results suggest that early PIH leading to improved postpartum survival and health represents a balanced compromise between the reproductive interests of parents and offspring, whereas later onset of PIH may reflect an unbalanced parent-offspring conflict at the detriment of maternal and offspring health.
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Seminal and molecular evidence that sauna exposure affects human spermatogenesis
Andrea Garolla et al.
Human Reproduction, April 2013, Pages 877-885
Study question: What are the effects of continuous sauna exposure on seminal parameters, sperm chromatin, sperm apoptosis and expression of genes involved in heat stress and hypoxia?
Summary answer: Scrotal hyperthermia by exposure to sauna can induce a significant alteration of spermatogenesis.
Study design, size and duration: A longitudinal time-course study. Data from 10 subjects exposed to Finnish sauna were collected before sauna (T0), after3 months of sauna sessions (T1) and after 3 (T2) and 6 months (T3) from the end of sauna exposure.
Participants/materials, setting and methods: Ten normozoospermic volunteers underwent two sauna sessions per week for 3 months, at 80-90°C, each lasting 15 min. Sex hormones, sperm parameters, sperm chromatin structure, sperm apoptosis and expression of genes involved in heat stress and hypoxia were evaluated at the start, at the end of sauna exposure and after 3 and 6 months from sauna discontinuation. Student's t-test for paired data was used for statistical analysis.
Main results and the role of chance: At the end of sauna exposure, we found a strong impairment of sperm count and motility (P < 0.001), while no significant change in sex hormones was present. Decreases in the percentage of sperm with normal histone-protamine substitution (78.7 ± 4.5 versus 69.0 ± 4.1), chromatin condensation (70.7 ± 4.7 versus 63.6 ± 3.3) and mitochondrial function (76.8 ± 4.9 versus 54.0 ± 6.1) were also evident at T1, and strong parallel up-regulation of genes involved in response to heat stress and hypoxia was found. All these effects were completely reversed at T3.
Wider implications of the findings: Our data demonstrated for the first time that in normozoospermic subjects, sauna exposure induces a significant but reversible impairment of spermatogenesis, including alteration of sperm parameters, mitochondrial function and sperm DNA packaging. The large use of Finnish sauna in Nordic countries and its growing use in other parts of the world make it important to consider the impact of this lifestyle choice on men's fertility.
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Sick and tired
Does Retirement Age Impact Mortality?
Erik Hernaes et al.
Journal of Health Economics, May 2013, Pages 586-598
Abstract:
The relationship between retirement and mortality is studied with a unique administrative data set covering the full population of Norway. A series of retirement policy changes in Norway reduced the retirement age for a group of workers but not for others. Difference-in-differences estimation based on monthly birth cohorts and treatment group status show that the early retirement programme significantly reduced the retirement age; this holds true also when we account for programme substitution, for example into the disability pension. Instrumental variables estimation results show no effect on mortality of retirement age; neither do estimation results from a hazard rate model.
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Racial Disparities in Survival Among Injured Drivers
Amy Haskins, David Clark & Lori Travis
American Journal of Epidemiology, 1 March 2013, Pages 380-387
Abstract:
Prior studies on racial and ethnic disparities in survival after motor vehicle crashes have examined only population-based death rates or have been restricted to hospitalized patients. In the current study, we examined 3 components of crash survival by race/ethnicity: survival overall, survival to reach a hospital, and survival among those hospitalized. Nine years of data (from 2000 through 2008) from the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System were used to examine white non-Hispanic, black non-Hispanic, and Hispanic drivers aged ≥15 years with serious injuries (injury severity scores of ≥9). By using multivariable logistic regression, we found that a driver's race/ethnicity was not significantly associated with overall survival after being injured in a crash (for blacks, odds ratio (OR) = 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.36, 1.32; for Hispanics, OR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.59, 1.72), and blacks and Hispanics were equally likely to survive to be treated at a hospital compared with whites (for blacks, OR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.52, 1.93; for Hispanics, OR = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.71, 1.79). However, among patients who were treated at a hospital, blacks were 50% less likely to survive 30 days compared with whites (OR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.33, 0.76). The disparity in survival after serious traffic injuries among blacks appears to occur after hospitalization, not in prehospital survival.
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Practices of Unregulated Tanning Facilities in Missouri: Implications for Statewide Legislation
Brundha Balaraman et al.
Pediatrics, March 2013, Pages 415 -422
Background: The incidence of skin cancer has increased in the United States, concomitant with increased UV radiation (UVR) exposure among young adults. We examined whether tanning facilities in Missouri, a state without indoor-tanning regulations, acted in accordance with the Food and Drug Administration's recommendations and consistently imparted information to potential clients about the known risks of UVR.
Methods: We conducted a statewide telephone survey of randomly selected tanning facilities in Missouri. Each tanning facility was surveyed twice, in the morning (7 AM-3 PM) and evening (3-10 PM), on different days, to determine intrasalon consistency of information provided to potential clients at different times.
Results: On average, 65% of 243 tanning-facility operators would allow children as young as 10 or 12 years old to use indoor-tanning devices, 80% claimed that indoor tanning would prevent future sunburns, and 43% claimed that there were no risks associated with indoor tanning. Intrasalon inconsistencies involved allowable age of use, and UVR exposure type and duration. Morning tanning-facility employees were more likely to allow consumers to start with maximum exposure times and UV-A-emitting devices (P < .001), whereas evening employees were more likely to allow 10- or 12-year-old children to use indoor-tanning devices (P = .008).
Conclusions: Despite increasing evidence that UVR exposure in indoor-tanning devices is associated with skin cancer, ocular damage, and premature photoaging, tanning facilities in Missouri often misinformed consumers regarding these risks and lack of health benefits and inconsistently provided information about the Food and Drug Administration's guidelines for tanning devices.
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Belinda Needham et al.
Social Science & Medicine, May 2013, Pages 1-8
Abstract:
The purpose of this study was to examine the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and leukocyte telomere length (LTL) - a marker of cell aging that has been linked to stressful life circumstances - in a nationally representative, socioeconomically and ethnically diverse sample of US adults aged 20-84. Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 1999-2002, we found that respondents who completed less than a high school education had significantly shorter telomeres than those who graduated from college. Income was not associated with LTL. African-Americans had significantly longer telomeres than whites, but there were no significant racial/ethnic differences in the association between education and telomere length. Finally, we found that the association between education and LTL was partially mediated by smoking and body mass index but not by drinking or sedentary behavior.
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Diagnosing Discrimination: Stress from Perceived Racism and the Mental and Physical Health Effects
Kathryn Freeman Anderson
Sociological Inquiry, February 2013, Pages 55-81
Abstract:
Differences in health between racial groups in the United States are significant and persistent. Many studies have documented these differences as a result of a variety of different social factors. An emerging emphasis is the impact of racism in its various forms on physical and mental health. Social stress theory conceptualizes racism as a social stresssor which can produce negative health consequences for racial minorities. This study uses binary logit and negative binomial regression models of four items from the 2004 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) to test social stress theory and examine the relationship between stress symptoms from perceived racism and overall health (N = 32,585). The effect of race on the experience of emotional and physical stress symptoms from racism is substantial. Furthermore, experiencing both emotional and physical stress from perceived racist treatment is an important factor in predicting the number of poor mental and physical health days, indicating that the experience of stress from perceived racism is related to overall poorer health.
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How does race get "under the skin"?: Inflammation, weathering, and metabolic problems in late life
Aniruddha Das
Social Science & Medicine, January 2013, Pages 75-83
Abstract:
Using nationally representative data from the 2005-2006 U.S. National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project, this study queries the mechanisms underlying worse metabolic outcomes - blood sugar control and cardiovascular health - among black than white men ages 57 to 85. Results indicate that contrary to much of the academic literature as well as media accounts - implicitly rooted in a "culture of irresponsibility" model - older black men's social isolation, poor health behaviors, or obesity may not play a major role in their worse metabolic problems. Instead, these outcomes seem to derive more consistently from a factor almost unexamined in the literature - chronic inflammation, arguably a biological "weathering" mechanism induced by these men's cumulative and multi-dimensional stress. These findings highlight the necessity of focusing attention not simply on proximal behavioral interventions, but on broader stress-inducing social inequalities, to reduce men's race disparities in health.
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Intergenerational Health Responses to Adverse and Enriched Environments
Lars Olov Bygren
Annual Review of Public Health, 2013, Pages 49-60
Abstract:
Health consequences of relative or absolute poverty constitute a definitive area of study in social medicine. As demonstrated in the extreme example of the Dutch Hunger Winter from 1944 to 1945, prenatal hunger can lead to adult schizophrenia and depression. A Norwegian study showed how childhood poverty resulted in a heightened risk of myocardial infarction in adulthood. In England, a study of extended impaired prenatal nutrition indicated three different types of increased cardiovascular risk at older ages. Current animal and human studies link both adverse and enriched environmental exposures to intergenerational transmission. We do not fully understand the molecular mechanisms for it; however, studies that follow up epigenetic marks within a generation combined with exploration of gametic epigenetic inheritance may help explain the prevalence of certain conditions such as cardiovascular disease, schizophrenia, and alcoholism, which have complex etiologies. Insights from these studies will be of great public health importance.
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Nataria Joseph, Karen Matthews & Hector Myers
Health Psychology, forthcoming
Objective: The long-term health impact of acute unemployment and socioeconomic resource deficit has not been shown to be unique from the effects of stable socioeconomic status (SES) and serious life circumstances, such as trauma. This study examined associations between these acute socioeconomic declines and health of hurricane survivors, independent of prehurricane SES and hurricane trauma.
Method: Participants were 215 African American adults (60% female, mean age = 39 years) living in the Greater New Orleans area at the time of Hurricane Katrina and survey 4 years later. The survey included prehurricane SES measures (i.e., education and neighborhood poverty level); acute unemployment and deficits in access to SES resources following Hurricane Katrina; and posthurricane health events (i.e., cardiometabolic events, chronic pain, posttraumatic stress disorder [PTSD], and major depressive disorder [MDD]).
Results: Acute unemployment was associated with odds of experiencing a cardiometabolic event (odds ratio [OR] = 5.65, p < .05), MDD (OR = 2.76, p < .05) and chronic pain (OR = 2.76, p < .05), whereas acute socioeconomic resource deficit was associated with odds of chronic pain (OR = 1.93, p < .001) and MDD (OR = 1.19, p < .05). Associations were independent of prehurricane SES, hurricane trauma, potentially chronic SES resource deficits, and current unemployment.
Conclusions: This study shows that acute socioeconomic decline following a natural disaster can create long-term health disparities beyond those created by prehurricane SES level and traumatic hurricane experiences. Findings suggest that early intervention postdisaster to reduce pervasive socioeconomic disruption may reduce the long-term health impact of disasters.
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How Many Infants Likely Died in Africa as a Result of the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis?
Jed Friedman & Norbert Schady
Health Economics, May 2013, Pages 611-622
Abstract:
The human consequences of the recent global financial crisis for the developing world are presumed to be severe, but few studies have quantified them. This letter estimates the human cost of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis in one critical dimension - infant mortality - for countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis pools birth-level data, as reported in female adult retrospective birth histories from all Demographic and Health Surveys collected in sub-Saharan Africa. This results in a data set of 639,000 births to 264,000 women in 30 countries. We use regression models with flexible controls for temporal trends to assess an infant's likelihood of death as a function of fluctuations in national income. We then calculate the expected number of excess deaths by combining these estimates with growth shortfalls as a result of the crisis. The results suggest 28,000-50,000 excess infant deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in the crisis-affected year of 2009. Notably, most of these additional deaths were concentrated among girls. Policies that protect the income of poor households and that maintain critical health services during times of economic contraction may reduce the expected increase in mortality. Interventions targeted at female infants and young girls can be particularly beneficial.
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Was the Economic Crisis of 2008 Good for Icelanders? Impact on Health Behaviors
Tinna Laufey Ásgeirsdóttir et al.
Economics & Human Biology, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study uses the 2008 economic crisis in Iceland to identify the effects of a macroeconomic downturn on a range of health behaviors. We use longitudinal survey data that include pre- and post- reports from the same individuals on a range of health-compromising and health-promoting behaviors. We find that the crisis led to large and significant reductions in health-compromising behaviors (such as smoking, drinking alcohol or soft drinks, and eating sweets) and certain health-promoting behaviors (consumption of fruits and vegetables), but to increases in other health-promoting behaviors (consumption of fish oil and recommended sleep). The magnitudes of effects for smoking are somewhat larger than what has been found in past research in other contexts, while those for alcohol, fruits, and vegetables are in line with estimates from other studies. Changes in work hours, real income, financial assets, mortgage debt, and mental health, together, explain the effects of the crisis on some behaviors (such as consumption of sweets and fast food), while the effects of the crisis on most other behaviors appear to have operated largely through general price increases.
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Who Should Pay for Global Health, and How Much?
Luis Carrasco, Richard Coker & Alex Cook
PLoS Medicine, February 2013
Abstract:
Mechanisms to establish the expected financial contribution from each country to achieve the health Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) could encourage scaling-up of contributions. Mirroring global carbon permit markets to mitigate climate change, we propose a cap-and-trade system consisting of a global cost-effectiveness criterion and a disability-adjusted life year (DALY) global credit market. Under this system, high-income and middle-income countries should contribute, respectively, 74% and 26% of the additional US$36-US$45 billion annually needed to attain the health MDGs. The change relative to current contributions would vary, with some countries needing to scale-up substantially their expected annual contributions under the proposed market (e.g., US, US$7-US$10 billion; China, US$2-US$3 billion; Japan, US$2 billion; Germany, US$1.5-US$2 billion), while a few already meet or exceed their required contributions (i.e., Norway, the United Arab Emirates, Luxembourg, and the UK). A DALY tradable credit market offers the potential to increase the efficiency of global health investments while promoting international obligations to the pursuit of an agreed global common good.
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Trends and Socioeconomic Gradients in Adult Mortality around the Developing World
Damien De Walque & Deon Filmer
Population and Development Review, March 2013, Pages 1-29
Abstract:
We combine data from 84 Demographic and Health Surveys from 46 countries to analyze trends and socioeconomic differences in adult mortality, calculating mortality based on the sibling mortality reports collected from female respondents aged 15-49. The analysis yields four main findings. First, adult mortality is different from child mortality: while under-5 mortality shows a definite improving trend over time, adult mortality does not, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The second main finding is the increase in adult mortality in sub-Saharan African countries. The increase is dramatic among those most affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Mortality rates in the highest HIV-prevalence countries of southern Africa exceed those in countries that experienced episodes of armed conflict. Third, even in sub-Saharan countries where HIV prevalence is not as high, mortality rates appear to be at best stagnating, and even increasing in several cases. Finally, the main dimension along which mortality appears to differ in the aggregate is by sex. Adult mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa have risen substantially higher for men than for women-especially so in the high HIV-prevalence countries. On the whole, the data do not show large gaps by urban/rural residence or by school attainment.
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Lauren Johns et al.
American Journal of Public Health, April 2013, Pages 733-739
Objectives: Heart disease death overreporting is problematic in New York City (NYC) and other US jurisdictions. We examined whether overreporting affects the premature (< 65 years) heart disease death rate disparity between non-Hispanic Blacks and non-Hispanic Whites in NYC.
Methods: We identified overreporting hospitals and used counts of premature heart disease deaths at reference hospitals to estimate corrected counts. We then corrected citywide, age-adjusted premature heart disease death rates among Blacks and Whites and a White-Black premature heart disease death disparity.
Results: At overreporting hospitals, 51% of the decedents were White compared with 25% at reference hospitals. Correcting the heart disease death counts at overreporting hospitals decreased the age-adjusted premature heart disease death rate 10.1% (from 41.5 to 37.3 per 100 000) among Whites compared with 4.2% (from 66.2 to 63.4 per 100 000) among Blacks. Correction increased the White-Black disparity 6.1% (from 24.6 to 26.1 per 100 000).
Conclusions: In 2008, NYC's White-Black premature heart disease death disparity was underestimated because of overreporting by hospitals serving larger proportions of Whites. Efforts to reduce overreporting may increase the observed disparity, potentially obscuring any programmatic or policy-driven advances.
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Daniel Powers
Social Science Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
We investigate three interrelated sources of change in infant mortality rates over a 20 year period using the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) linked birth and infant death cohort files. The effects of maternal age, maternal birth cohort, and time period of childbirth on infant mortality are estimated using a modified age/period/cohort (APC) model that identifies age, period, cohort effects. We document black-white differences in the patterning of these effects and find that maternal age effects follow the predictable U-shaped pattern, net of period and cohort, but with a less steep gradient in the black population. The largest relative maternal age-specific disparity in IMR occurs among older African American mothers. Cohort effects, while considerably smaller than age and period effects, present an interesting pattern of a modest decline in IMR among later cohorts of African American mothers coupled with an increasing IMR among the same cohorts of non-Hispanic whites. However, period effects dominate the time trends, implying that period-related technologies overwhelmingly shape U.S. infant survival in today's population. These general findings are mirrored in APC analyses carried out for several leading underlying causes of infant mortality.
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Ying Zhang et al.
PLoS ONE, April 2013
Background: The 2009 H1N1 outbreak provides an opportunity to identify strengths and weaknesses of disease surveillance and notification systems that have been implemented in the past decade.
Methods: Drawing on a systematic review of the scientific literature, official documents, websites, and news reports, we constructed a timeline differentiating three kinds of events: (1) the emergence and spread of the pH1N1 virus, (2) local health officials' awareness and understanding of the outbreak, and (3) notifications about the events and their implications. We then conducted a "critical event" analysis of the surveillance process to ascertain when health officials became aware of the epidemiologic facts of the unfolding pandemic and whether advances in surveillance notification systems hastened detection.
Results: This analysis revealed three critical events. First, medical personnel identified pH1N1in California children because of an experimental surveillance program, leading to a novel viral strain being identified by CDC. Second, Mexican officials recognized that unconnected outbreaks represented a single phenomenon. Finally, the identification of a pH1N1 outbreak in a New York City high school was hastened by awareness of the emerging pandemic. Analysis of the timeline suggests that at best the global response could have been about one week earlier (which would not have stopped spread to other countries), and could have been much later.
Conclusions: This analysis shows that investments in global surveillance and notification systems made an important difference in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. In particular, enhanced laboratory capacity in the U.S. and Canada led to earlier detection and characterization of the 2009 H1N1. This includes enhanced capacity at the federal, state, and local levels in the U.S., as well as a trilateral agreement enabling collaboration among U.S., Canada, and Mexico. In addition, improved global notification systems contributed by helping health officials understand the relevance and importance of their own information.
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Symmetry of the face in old age reflects childhood social status
David Hope et al.
Economics & Human Biology, March 2013, Pages 236-244
Abstract:
The association of socioeconomic status (SES) with a range of lifecourse outcomes is robust, but the causes of these associations are not well understood. Research on the developmental origins of health and disease has led to the hypothesis that early developmental disturbance might permanently affect the lifecourse, accounting for some of the burden of chronic diseases such as coronary heart disease. Here we assessed developmental disturbance using bodily and facial symmetry and examined its association with socioeconomic status (SES) in childhood, and attained status at midlife. Symmetry was measured at ages 83 (facial symmetry) and 87 (bodily symmetry) in a sample of 292 individuals from the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921 (LBC1921). Structural equation models indicated that poorer SES during early development was significantly associated with lower facial symmetry (standardized path coefficient -.25, p = .03). By contrast, midlife SES was not significantly associated with symmetry. The relationship was stronger in men (-.44, p = .03) than in women (-.12, p = .37), and the effect sizes were significantly different in magnitude (p = .004). These findings suggest that SES in early life (but not later in life) is associated with developmental disturbances. Facial symmetry appears to provide an effective record of early perturbations, whereas bodily symmetry seems relatively imperturbable. As bodily and facial symmetries were sensitive to different influences, they should not be treated as interchangeable. However, markers of childhood disturbance remain many decades later, suggesting that early development may account in part for associations between SES and health through the lifecourse. Future research should clarify which elements of the environment cause these perturbations.
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Katherine Weisensee
American Journal of Human Biology, forthcoming
Objectives: This study examines the relationship between craniofacial fluctuating asymmetry and cause of death in an identified skeletal collection. This study tests the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease hypothesis using fluctuating asymmetry as the measure of developmental instability.
Methods: The skeletal sample used in this study comes from Lisbon, Portugal, and individuals in the sample were born between 1806 and 1935. This represents a period during which Lisbon was beginning to undergo the modern health transition, in which mortality from infectious disease began to decline while mortality from degenerative diseases began to increase. Approximately equal numbers of individuals in the sample died from infectious diseases, such as tuberculosis, and from degenerative diseases. Fluctuating asymmetry is examined using three-dimensional landmark data collected from 392 individuals with documented causes of death. Landmark data may provide a more robust measure of fluctuating asymmetry, although it has not often been used in studies of fluctuating asymmetry in human skeletal samples.
Results: The results of the study show that individuals who died from degenerative diseases have higher rates of fluctuating asymmetry compared to individuals who died from infectious diseases. Males also exhibit higher rates of fluctuating asymmetry compared to females.
Conclusions: The results of this study confirm earlier findings that early development has a significant impact on adult health outcomes. Furthermore, the results suggest that fluctuating asymmetry in skeletal samples may offer a means of testing the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease hypothesis.
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Month of Birth and Mortality in Sweden: A Nation-Wide Population-Based Cohort Study
Peter Ueda et al.
PLoS ONE, February 2013
Background: Month of birth - an indicator for a variety of prenatal and early postnatal exposures - has been associated with life expectancy in adulthood. On the northern hemisphere, people born in the autumn live longer than those born during the spring. Only one study has followed a population longitudinally and no study has investigated the relation between month of birth and mortality risk below 50 years.
Methods and results: In this nation-wide Swedish study, we included 6,194,745 subjects, using data from population-based health and administrative registries. The relation between month of birth (January - December) and mortality risk was assessed by fitting Cox proportional hazard regression models using attained age as the underlying time scale. Analyses were made for ages >30, >30 to 50, >50 to 80 and >80 years. Month of birth was a significant predictor of mortality in the age-spans >30, >50 to 80, and >80 years. In models adjusted for gender and education for ages >30 and >50 to 80 years, the lowest mortality was seen for people born in November and the highest mortality in those born in the spring/summer, peaking in May for mortality >30 years (25‰ excess hazard ratio compared to November, [95% confidence interval = 16-34 ]) and in April for mortality >50 to 80 years (42‰ excess hazard ratio compared to November, [95% confidence interval = 30-55]). In the ages >80 years the pattern was similar but the differences in mortality between birth months were smaller. For mortality within the age-span >30 to 50 years, results were inconclusive.
Conclusion: Month of birth is associated to risk of mortality in ages above 50 years in Sweden. Further studies should aim at clarifying the mechanisms behind this association.
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Vitamin D Status Is a Biological Determinant of Health Disparities
Tom Weishaar & Joyce Marcley Vergili
Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, forthcoming
Background: In human beings, dark skin requires more exposure to ultraviolet light to synthesize the same amount of vitamin D as lighter skin. It is has been repeatedly shown that at the latitude of the United States there are vitamin D disparities related to skin color. Although inadequate vitamin D status and health disparities have been associated with many of the same diseases, neither nutrition policy nor public health policy in the United States currently recognizes any role at all for vitamin D as a determinant of health disparities.
Objective: This study investigated the relationship between health, skin color, and vitamin D nutriture in the US population.
Design: The design is cross-sectional, correlational, and can be generalized to the population of the United States.
Participants: We used data from 12,505 (unweighted) subjects (3,402 non-Hispanic blacks, 3,143 Mexican Americans, and 5,960 non-Hispanic whites), aged 13 years or older, from the continuous National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2006.
Main outcome measure: Self-rated health, a repeatedly validated indicator of objective health status, was used as a continuous measure of health.
Statistical analyses performed: Using software appropriate for the complex survey design of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the study consisted of six regression models, one predicting vitamin D status and five predicting self-rated health.
Results: Controlling for the covariates sex, interview language, country of birth, tobacco use, age, body mass index, and leisure exercise as well as the socioeconomic variables education and family income, remaining disparities in self-rated health are greatly reduced or eliminated by controlling for serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels.
Conclusions: We found that socioeconomic factors are the strongest determinant of skin-color based health disparities in the US population, but that it may not be possible to eliminate health disparities in the United States without eliminating the skin-color-related disparities in vitamin D nutriture.
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25-hydroxyvitamin D levels in African American and Nigerian women
Ramon Durazo-Arvizu et al.
American Journal of Human Biology, forthcoming
Objectives: African Americans (AA) have substantially lower levels of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) than whites. We compared population-based samples of 25(OH)D in women of African descent from Nigeria and metropolitan Chicago.
Methods: One hundred women of Yoruba ethnicity from southwest Nigeria and 94 African American women from metropolitan Chicago were recruited and compared using a standardized survey protocol and the same laboratory assay for 25(OH)D.
Results: Mean 25(OH)D levels were 64 nmol/l among the Nigerians and 29 nmol/l among the AA. Only 10% of the values were shared in common between the groups, and 76% of the Nigerians were above the currently defined threshold for adequate circulating 25(OH)D compared to 5% of the AA. Modest associations were seen between 25(OH)D and measures of obesity, although adjustment for these traits did not materially affect the group differences.
Conclusion: These data support the presumption that skin color is an adaptive trait which has evolved in part to regulate 25(OH)D. It remains undetermined, however, whether lower values observed in AA have negative health consequences.
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Childhood Conscientiousness Relates to Objectively Measured Adult Physical Health Four Decades Later
Sarah Hampson et al.
Health Psychology, forthcoming
Objective: Many life span personality-and-health models assume that childhood personality traits result in life-course pathways leading through morbidity to mortality. Although childhood conscientiousness in particular predicts mortality, there are few prospective studies that have investigated the associations between childhood personality and objective health status in adulthood. The present study tested this crucial assumption of life span models of personality and health using a comprehensive assessment of the Big Five traits in childhood (M age = 10 years) and biomarkers of health over 40 years later (M age = 51 years).
Methods: Members of the Hawaii Personality and Health Cohort (N = 753; 368 men, 385 women) underwent a medical examination at mean age 51. Their global health status was evaluated by well-established clinical indicators that were objectively measured using standard protocols, including blood pressure, lipid profile, fasting blood glucose, and body mass index. These indicators were combined to evaluate overall physiological dysregulation and grouped into five more homogeneous subcomponents (glucose intolerance, blood pressure, lipids, obesity, and medications).
Results: Lower levels of childhood conscientiousness predicted more physiological dysregulation (β = -.11, p < .05), greater obesity (β = -.10, p < .05), and worse lipid profiles (β = -.10, p < .05), after controlling for the other Big Five childhood personality traits, gender, ethnicity, parental home ownership, and adult conscientiousness.
Conclusions: These findings are consistent with a key assumption in life span models that childhood conscientiousness is associated with objective health status in older adults. They open the way for testing mechanisms by which childhood personality may influence mortality through morbidity; mechanisms that could then be targeted for intervention.
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Season of Conception in Rural Gambia Affects DNA Methylation at Putative Human Metastable Epialleles
Robert Waterland et al.
PLoS Genetics, March 2013
Abstract:
Throughout most of the mammalian genome, genetically regulated developmental programming establishes diverse yet predictable epigenetic states across differentiated cells and tissues. At metastable epialleles (MEs), conversely, epigenotype is established stochastically in the early embryo then maintained in differentiated lineages, resulting in dramatic and systemic interindividual variation in epigenetic regulation. In the mouse, maternal nutrition affects this process, with permanent phenotypic consequences for the offspring. MEs have not previously been identified in humans. Here, using an innovative 2-tissue parallel epigenomic screen, we identified putative MEs in the human genome. In autopsy samples, we showed that DNA methylation at these loci is highly correlated across tissues representing all 3 embryonic germ layer lineages. Monozygotic twin pairs exhibited substantial discordance in DNA methylation at these loci, suggesting that their epigenetic state is established stochastically. We then tested for persistent epigenetic effects of periconceptional nutrition in rural Gambians, who experience dramatic seasonal fluctuations in nutritional status. DNA methylation at MEs was elevated in individuals conceived during the nutritionally challenged rainy season, providing the first evidence of a permanent, systemic effect of periconceptional environment on human epigenotype. At MEs, epigenetic regulation in internal organs and tissues varies among individuals and can be deduced from peripheral blood DNA. MEs should therefore facilitate an improved understanding of the role of interindividual epigenetic variation in human disease.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Know your place
Climato-Economic Imprints on Chinese Collectivism
Evert Van de Vliert et al.
Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, May 2013, Pages 589-605
Abstract:
A still unsolved question is why humans create collectivism. A new theory proposes that poorer populations coping with more demanding winters or summers become more collectivist. Preliminary support comes from a province-level analysis of survey data from 1,662 native residents of 15 Chinese provinces. Collectivism is weakest in provinces with temperate climates irrespective of income (e.g., Guangdong), negligibly stronger in higher income provinces with demanding climates (e.g., Hunan), and strongest in lower income provinces with demanding climates (e.g., Heilongjiang). Multilevel analysis consolidates the results by demonstrating that collectivism at the provincial level fully mediates the interactive impact of climato-economic hardships on collectivist orientations at the individual level, suggesting that culture building is a collective top-down rather than bottom-up process.
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How Macro-Historical Change Shapes Cultural Taste: Legacies of Democratization in Spain and Portugal
Robert Fishman & Omar Lizardo
American Sociological Review, April 2013, Pages 213-239
Abstract:
In this article, we show that large-scale macro-political change can powerfully condition how institutional practices shape individual cultural choice. We study the paired comparison of Portugal and Spain, two long-similar societies that moved from authoritarianism to democracy through divergent pathways in the 1970s. Data from the 2001 Eurobarometer indicate that while the cultural choices of persons born before democratic transition are comparable across the two cases, Portuguese youth born under democracy are substantially more omnivorous than their Spanish counterparts. We shed light on this puzzle through a structured, focused comparison. Our argument is that whereas revolution in Portugal overturned hierarchies in numerous social institutions and unleashed an ambitious program of cultural transformation, Spain's consensus-oriented transition was largely limited to remaking political institutions. We show that this macro-political divergence resulted in a key cross-case difference at the institutional level. Whereas pedagogical practices in Portugal encourage young people to adopt the post-canonical, anti-hierarchical orientation toward aesthetics constitutive of the omnivorous orientation, corresponding practices in Spain restrict omnivorousness by instilling a hierarchical, largely canonical attitude toward cultural works.
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A Different Look at Lenin's Legacy: Social Capital and Risk Taking in the two Germanies
Guido Heineck & Bernd Süssmuth
Journal of Comparative Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
What are the long-term effects of Communism on economically relevant notions such as social trust, fairness, and scope of cooperation? To answer this question, we study the post-unification trajectory of convergence between East and West German individuals with regard to trust, cooperation, and risk. Our hypotheses are derived from a model of German unification that incorporates individual responses both to incentives and to values inherited from earlier generations as recently suggested in the literature. Using two waves of balanced panel data, we find that despite twenty years of unification East Germans are still characterized by a persistent level of social distrust. In comparison to West Germans, they are less inclined to see others as cooperative. East Germans are also found to have been more risk loving than West Germans. However, risk attitudes fully converged recently.
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Dejun Tony Kong
Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, May 2013, Pages 574-588
Abstract:
Social science research has focused on polieconomic factors for generalized social trust. Yet psychological research has shown that ecological factors can influence cognition, mood, and behavior. Following Van de Vliert's climatic demands-resources theory, I proposed the view of a climatoeconomic contextualization of generalized social trust. Specifically, I found that the interplay of thermal climates (harshness) and wealth (GDP per capita) was related to generalized social trust, mediated by uncertainty avoidance rather than other cultural dimensions such as individualism-collectivism, masculinity-femininity, and power distance. These findings render direct support to Hofstede's hypothesis that societal cultures are first-stage outcomes of climatic factors and second-stage intermediaries between these climatic factors and the sociopsychological functioning of markets, organizations, groups, and individuals. They also provide important implications for trust theory and climatic demands-resources theory.
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Disgust and contamination: A cross-national comparison of Ghana and the United States
Alexander Skolnick & Vivian Dzokoto
Frontiers in Psychology, February 2013
Abstract:
The emotion of disgust, with feelings of revulsion and behavioral withdrawal, make it a prime emotion to aid in the avoidance of sources of contamination, including sources of potential infectious disease. We tested the theory that living in a region with a historically high prevalence of infectious diseases would promote higher levels of disgust and contamination sensitivity as a protective measure. A sample of undergraduates from Ghana (n = 103, 57 women), a country with a historically high prevalence of infectious diseases, showed significantly higher scores on scales assessing disgust, contamination, and disease susceptibility than a sample of undergraduates from the United States (n = 96, 58 women), a country with lower levels of disease threat. Contamination sensitivity mediated the national differences in disgust. Disgust connoting contamination also produced larger cross-national effect sizes than other types of disgust. Finally, a factor analysis on the Ghanaian responses to one of the disgust scales did not resemble the usual three-factor solution found in West. Taken together, the results were consistent with the hypothesis that a region with a higher prevalence of infectious disease threats would produce greater sensitivity to disgust and contamination than seen in lower disease threat regions. This first study on disgust in Africa showed that disgust sensitivity could differ considerably from that in the West.
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Choice and dissonance in a European cultural context: The case of Western and Eastern Europeans
Michail Kokkoris & Ulrich Kühnen
International Journal of Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Prior research demonstrates that members of collectivistic cultures are less likely to reduce cognitive dissonance after making a choice, compared to members of individualistic cultures. This difference has been attributed to different conceptualizations of choice that derive from different self-construals across cultures. In individualistic cultures, choice leads to stronger commitment to the chosen option compared to collectivistic cultures, because it implicates core aspects of the independent self, such as personal preferences. However, this cultural variation in postchoice dissonance has thus far been studied exclusively by comparing East Asians and North Americans. Building on the assumption that this difference is due to different construals of the self, we conducted an experiment with movie choices using the classic free-choice paradigm to examine differences in dissonance reduction between Western and Eastern Europeans, two populations known to differ with respect to interdependence. The results show that Eastern Europeans are less likely than Western Europeans to reduce postchoice dissonance by spreading their alternatives. Our findings speak to the generalizability of the hypothesis that in cultures differing in independence or interdependence people also differ in the way they construe choice, as well as in the way the act of choosing affects their self-concept.
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Yat Laam Lau et al.
Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, April 2013, Pages 461-477
Abstract:
Chinese, Chinese-Canadian, and Euro-Canadian children 7, 9, and 11 years of age were presented scenarios in which story characters either lied or told the truth to help themselves but harm a collective, or vice versa. Children classified, evaluated, and justified their evaluations of the truthful or untruthful statements in each scenario. Cultural differences emerged in the children's evaluations but were especially apparent in their justifications. Chinese children rated more positively statements that helped a collective and harmed an individual than vice versa, and they showed concerns for a group over the self when evaluating moral statements, thus reflecting collectivist inclinations. Euro-Canadian children did the reverse, demonstrating individualistic tendencies. Bicultural, Chinese-Canadian, children's judgments and justifications were situation specific, offering preliminary evidence for the possibility that bicultural individuals shift, at a relatively early age, between cultural frames in their interpretations and evaluations of moral dilemmas, depending upon the context.
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Increasing Rejection of Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence of Global Cultural Diffusion
Rachael Pierotti
American Sociological Review, April 2013, Pages 240-265
Abstract:
This study extends existing world society research on ideational diffusion by going beyond examinations of national policy change to investigate the spread of ideas among nonelite individuals. Specifically, I test whether recent trends in women's attitudes about intimate partner violence are converging toward global cultural scripts. Results suggest that global norms regarding violence against women are reaching citizens worldwide, including in some of the least privileged parts of the globe. During the first decade of the 2000s, women in 23 of the 26 countries studied became more likely to reject intimate partner violence. Structural socioeconomic or demographic changes, such as urbanization, rising educational attainment, increasing media access, and cohort replacement, fail to explain the majority of the observed trend. Rather, women of all ages and social locations became less likely to accept justifications for intimate partner violence. The near uniformity of the trend and speed of the change in attitudes about intimate partner violence suggest that global cultural diffusion has played an important role.
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Cultural Variation in the Focus on Goals Versus Processes of Actions
Yuri Miyamoto et al.
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, forthcoming
Abstract:
Everyday actions (e.g., riding a bike) can be described in ways that emphasize either the goals of the action by adapting a higher level identification (e.g., getting exercise) or the processes of the action by adapting a lower level identification (e.g., pedaling). In Studies 1 and 2, we demonstrate cultural differences in focusing on the process or goal of actions at the individual level: Americans are more likely than Japanese to focus on the goal (rather than the process) of actions. Study 3 recruited Chinese participants in addition to American and Japanese participants and found that cultural differences in action identification are partly explained by cultural differences in self-consistency. Study 4 further showed cultural differences at the collective level: American media presents more goal-oriented information and less process-oriented information than does Japanese media. These findings highlight the role of culture in shaping how people attend to different aspects of actions.
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Eva Dreikurs Ferguson et al.
Journal of Applied Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Does culture shape reported parenting styles and cognitive processes like transitive reasoning, of choosing A over B, B over C, and then A over C (transitivity)? Asian-American, Caucasian-American, and Indian university students differed significantly in transitivity and in reported parental styles. India participants were more intransitive and, contrary to traditional findings in the literature, reported their parents as more laissez-faire, individualistic, and competitive than did Caucasian-Americans. Recent technological and industrial advances in India likely explain some of these obtained differences. Predictions from Adlerian theory and work of Kurt Lewin, that parenting styles would relate to transitivity of choices, were indirectly supported. Stronger evidence was found that culture impacts both reported parental styles and transitivity of simple choices.
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Xinfa Yi et al.
Creativity Research Journal, Winter 2013, Pages 97-108
Abstract:
Empirical research on the relationship between culture and creativity has thus far yielded no consistent results. Investigations of the differences are mostly post-hoc, and results are inconclusive. A creativity-value-oriented theory is proposed to explain cultural differences, as an alternative to ethnic and language effects. This study was conducted to compare the performances of artistic creativity of Germans and Chinese. Results revealed that the four groups of students examined (German students of Caucasian descent, German students of Asian descent, Chinese students studying abroad, and Chinese students studying in China) differed in their artistic creativity. German participants (Caucasian Germans and Asian Germans) produced more creative and aesthetically pleasing artwork than did their Chinese counterparts (Chinese studying abroad and domestic Chinese). This difference was observed by both German and Chinese judges. There no significant subgroup differences in creative performances - no difference between the two German groups, and no difference between the two Chinese groups. Finally, although there were significant differences between German judges, Chinese judges studying abroad, and domestic Chinese judges in judging the artworks, these were not due to a preference for artwork from students from their own cultural background. Chinese and German judges roughly agreed on what constitutes creativity. These results suggest that cultural differences affect creative performances.
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A Cross-Cultural Comparison of Pretend Play in U.S. and Italian Children
Daphne Chessa et al.
Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, May 2013, Pages 640-656
Abstract:
Pretend play reflects cognitive, representational, and affective expression abilities in children. Cross-cultural studies stress the importance of culture-specific practices involved in shaping the context for play. Differences in the cultural environment and the parental care-giving system could influence children's pretend play activities. There is a need for cross-cultural comparisons of play that use the same standardized measure of play. The current study was a cross-cultural comparison of two samples of American and Italian children 6 to 8 years old. All children were administered the Affect in Play Scale. As hypothesized, Italian children had significantly more types of affect expression in play than children in the United States, showing a medium effect size. Children in the United States had more imagination in their play, although with a small effect size. Implications of these findings are discussed.
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Error-Related Brain Activity Reveals Self-Centric Motivation: Culture Matters
Shinobu Kitayama & Jiyoung Park
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, forthcoming
Abstract:
To secure the interest of the personal self (vs. social others) is considered a fundamental human motive, but the nature of the motivation to secure the self-interest is not well understood. To address this issue, we assessed electrocortical responses of European Americans and Asians as they performed a flanker task while instructed to earn as many reward points as possible either for the self or for their same-sex friend. For European Americans, error-related negativity (ERN) - an event-related-potential component contingent on error responses - was significantly greater in the self condition than in the friend condition. Moreover, post-error slowing - an index of cognitive control to reduce errors - was observed in the self condition but not in the friend condition. Neither of these self-centric effects was observed among Asians, consistent with prior cross-cultural behavioral evidence. Interdependent self-construal mediated the effect of culture on the ERN self-centric effect. Our findings provide the first evidence for a neural correlate of self-centric motivation, which becomes more salient outside of interdependent social relations.
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Explaining the World Heritage List: An empirical study
Bruno Frey, Paolo Pamini & Lasse Steiner
International Review of Economics, March 2013, Pages 1-19
Abstract:
The UNESCO World Heritage List is designed to protect the global heritage. We show that, with respect to countries and continents, the existing World Heritage List is highly imbalanced. Major econometric determinants of this imbalance are historical GDP, historical population, area in square kilometers of a country, and number of years of high civilization. Surprisingly, economic and political factors, such as membership on the UN Security Council, which should be unrelated to the value of a country's heritage and therefore should have no impact, are shown to have a systematic impact on the composition of the World Heritage List.
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Condoned or Condemned: The Situational Affordance of Anger and Shame in the United States and Japan
Michael Boiger et al.
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, April 2013, Pages 540-553
Abstract:
Two studies tested the idea that the situations that people encounter frequently and the situations that they associate most strongly with an emotion differ across cultures in ways that can be understood from what a culture condones or condemns. In a questionnaire study, N = 163 students from the United States and Japan perceived situations as more frequent to the extent that they elicited condoned emotions (anger in the United States, shame in Japan), and they perceived situations as less frequent to the extent that they elicited condemned emotions (shame in the United States, anger in Japan). In a second study, N = 160 students from the United States and Japan free-sorted the same situations. For each emotion, the situations could be organized along two cross-culturally common dimensions. Those situations that touched upon central cultural concerns were perceived to elicit stronger emotions. The largest cultural differences were found for shame; smaller, yet meaningful, differences were found for anger.
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Perceived social image and life satisfaction across cultures
Patricia Rodriguez Mosquera & Toshie Imada
Cognition & Emotion, forthcoming
Abstract:
We studied the relationship between perceived social image and life satisfaction in four different cultural groups. One-hundred nine Indian (63 females, 46 males), 67 Pakistani/Bangladeshi (36 females, 31 males), 76 White British (43 females, 33 males), and 94 European Americans (43 females, 48 males) completed measures on the cultural importance of social image, positive and negative emotions, academic achievement, and perceived social image. Indian and Pakistani/Bangladeshi participants valued social image more than White British and European-American participants. Consistent with this value difference, a positive perceived social image predicted life satisfaction among Indian and Pakistani/Bangladeshi participants only. For these participants, perceived social image predicted life satisfaction above and beyond the effects of emotions and academic achievement. Academic achievement only predicted life satisfaction among White British and European Americans. Emotions were significant predictors of life satisfaction for all participants.
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Need Satisfaction and Well-Being: Testing Self-Determination Theory in Eight Cultures
Timothy Church et al.
Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, May 2013, Pages 507-534
Abstract:
According to Self-Determination Theory (SDT), satisfaction of needs for autonomy, competence, and relatedness is a universal requirement for psychological well-being. We tested this hypothesis with college students in the United States, Australia, Mexico, Venezuela, the Philippines, Malaysia, China, and Japan. Participants rated the extent to which these needs, plus needs for self-actualization and pleasure-stimulation, were satisfied in various roles and reported their general hedonic (i.e., positive and negative affect) and eudaimonic (e.g., meaning in life, personal growth) well-being. Asian participants averaged lower than non-Asian participants in perceived satisfaction of autonomy, competence, and self-actualization needs and in most aspects of eudaimonic well-being, and these differences were partially accounted for by differences in dialecticism and independent self-construals. Nonetheless, perceived need satisfaction predicted overall well-being to a similar degree in all cultures and in most cultures provided incremental prediction beyond the Big Five traits. Perceived imbalance in the satisfaction of different needs also modestly predicted well-being, particularly negative affect. The study extended support for the universal importance of SDT need satisfaction to several new cultures.
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Agency and Facial Emotion Judgment in Context
Kenichi Ito, Takahiko Masuda & Liman Man Wai Li
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, forthcoming
Abstract:
Past research showed that East Asians' belief in holism was expressed as their tendencies to include background facial emotions into the evaluation of target faces more than North Americans. However, this pattern can be interpreted as North Americans' tendency to downplay background facial emotions due to their conceptualization of facial emotion as volitional expression of internal states. Examining this alternative explanation, we investigated whether different types of contextual information produce varying degrees of effect on one's face evaluation across cultures. In three studies, European Canadians and East Asians rated the intensity of target facial emotions surrounded with either affectively salient landscape sceneries or background facial emotions. The results showed that, although affectively salient landscapes influenced the judgment of both cultural groups, only European Canadians downplayed the background facial emotions. The role of agency as differently conceptualized across cultures and multilayered systems of cultural meanings are discussed.
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The Construction of the Multilingual Internet: Unicode, Hebrew, and Globalization
Nicholas John
Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, April 2013, Pages 321-338
Abstract:
This paper examines the technologies that enable the representation of Hebrew on websites. Hebrew is written from right to left and in non-Latin characters, issues shared by a number of languages which seem to be converging on a shared solution - Unicode. Regarding the case of Hebrew, I show how competing solutions have given way to one dominant technology. I link processes in the Israeli context with broader questions about the ‘multilingual Internet,' asking whether the commonly accepted solution for representing non-Latin texts on computer screens is an instance of cultural imperialism and convergence around a western artifact. It is argued that while minority languages are given an online voice by Unicode, the context is still one of western power.
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Hummus: The making of an Israeli culinary cult
Dafna Hirsch & Ofra Tene
Journal of Consumer Culture, March 2013, Pages 25-45
Abstract:
Hummus - an Arab dish adopted by Jews in Israel and made into a ‘national dish' and a culinary cult - was first industrialized in Israel in 1958. In this article we look at the impact of the food industry on shaping both consumption patterns and the signification of the dish. Contrary to accounts that contrast mass production to authenticity and tradition, fast to slow food, globalized trade to local production, we regard the industrial and the artisanal as interdependent and mutually constitutive realms of production and consumption. We argue, first, that the Israeli food industry has played a crucial role in turning hummus into a national symbol and a culinary cult. Second, we argue that the growing popularity of industrial hummus not only did not replace the consumption of artisanal hummus, but the other way around. Third, we argue that the industry is simultaneously an agent of globalization and of localization of hummus: it expands the spread of hummus globally and at the same time it sometimes tries to fix to it a local (‘national') identity.
Monday, April 8, 2013
Bordering on passage
The Dynamics of Immigration Opinion in the United States, 1992-2012
Christopher Muste
Public Opinion Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Integrating trend data from ANES, GSS, Gallup, Pew, and media surveys from 1992 to 2012, this article updates and extends previous Poll Trends analyses of public opinion about immigration levels, the impacts of recent immigrants, and immigration policies. The combined data demonstrate continued negativity and ambivalence, consistent with earlier reviews, and reveal a pattern of rapid, steep increases in anti-immigrant sentiment in response to events such as the 1994 election and 9/11, followed by declines over several years that stabilize at lower levels. Since 2001, opinions about most aspects of immigration have become less volatile, and consistent differentiation in opinion has emerged. Concerns about job competition and border enforcement are high, whereas fears about other immigration impacts have declined or stabilized and support for deporting illegal immigrants already in the United States is low. To improve understanding of trends in immigration opinion, survey questions about immigration must be asked more often and more consistently.
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Race, Legality, and the Social Policy Consequences of Anti-Immigration Mobilization
Hana Brown
American Sociological Review, April 2013, Pages 290-314
Abstract:
With the dramatic rise in the U.S. Hispanic population, scholars have struggled to explain how race affects welfare state development beyond the Black-White divide. This article uses a comparative analysis of welfare reforms in California and Arizona to examine how anti-Hispanic stereotypes affect social policy formation. Drawing on interviews, archival materials, and newspaper content analysis, I find that animus toward Hispanics is mobilized through two collective action frames: a legality frame and a racial frame. The legality frame lauds the contributions of documented noncitizens while demonizing illegal immigrants. The racial frame celebrates the moral worth of White citizens and uses explicit racial language to deride Hispanics as undeserving. These subtle differences in racialization and worth attribution create divergent political opportunities for welfare policy. When advocates employ the legality frame, they create openings for rights claims by documented noncitizens. Use of the racial frame, however, dampens cross-racial mobilization and effective claims-making for expansive welfare policies. These findings help to explain why the relationship between race and welfare policy is less predictable for Hispanics than for Blacks. They also reveal surprising ways in which race and immigration affect contemporary politics and political mobilization.
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Racial Threat and White Opposition to Bilingual Education in Texas
Lynn Hempel et al.
Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences, February 2013, Pages 85-102
Abstract:
This study examines local contextual conditions that influence opposition to bilingual education among non-Hispanic Whites, net of individual-level characteristics. Data from the Texas Poll (N = 615) are used in conjunction with U.S. Census data to test five competing hypotheses using binomial and multinomial logistic regression models. Our results support a "racial threat" hypothesis, suggesting that increasing opposition to bilingual education among Whites corresponds to changes in the Hispanic population. We find opposition to bilingual education among non-Hispanic Whites to be most pronounced in areas with substantial growth in an already sizeable Hispanic population, and least pronounced in areas of high growth rates and historically low proportions of Hispanics. Importantly, our results highlight the relevance of the interaction between minority group size and minority growth rates in generating majority opposition to bilingual education programs in the United States.
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Henrik Jacobsen Kleven et al.
NBER Working Paper, March 2013
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effects of income taxation on the international migration and earnings of top earners using a Danish preferential foreigner tax scheme and population-wide Danish administrative data. This scheme, introduced in 1991, allows new immigrants with high earnings to be taxed at a preferential flat rate for a duration of three years. We obtain three main results. First, the scheme has doubled the number of highly paid foreigners in Denmark relative to slightly less paid ineligible foreigners, which translates into a very large elasticity of migration with respect to the net-of-tax rate on foreigners, between 1.5 and 2. Hence, preferential tax schemes for highly paid foreign workers could create severe tax competition between countries. Second, we find compelling evidence of a negative effect of scheme-induced increases in the net-of-tax rate on pre-tax earnings at the individual level. This finding cannot be explained by the standard labor supply model where pay equals marginal productivity, but it can be rationalized by a matching frictions model with wage bargaining where there is a gap between pay and marginal productivity. Third, we find no evidence of positive or negative spillovers of the scheme-induced influx of high-skilled foreigners on the earnings of highly paid natives.
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Who Gets a Swiss Passport? A Natural Experiment in Immigrant Discrimination
Jens Hainmueller & Dominik Hangartner
American Political Science Review, February 2013, Pages 159-187
Abstract:
We study discrimination against immigrants using microlevel data from Switzerland, where, until recently, some municipalities used referendums to decide on the citizenship applications of foreign residents. We show that naturalization decisions vary dramatically with immigrants' attributes, which we collect from official applicant descriptions that voters received before each referendum. Country of origin determines naturalization success more than any other applicant characteristic, including language skills, integration status, and economic credentials. The average proportion of "no" votes is about 40% higher for applicants from (the former) Yugoslavia and Turkey compared to observably similar applicants from richer northern and western European countries. Statistical and taste-based discrimination contribute to varying naturalization success; the rewards for economic credentials are higher for applicants from disadvantaged origins, and origin-based discrimination is much stronger in more xenophobic municipalities. Moreover, discrimination against specific immigrant groups responds dynamically to changes in the groups' relative size.
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Wage Effects of High-Skilled Migration: International Evidence
Volker Grossmann & David Stadelmann
World Bank Economic Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
The international migration of high-skilled workers may trigger productivity effects at the macro level such that the wage rate of skilled workers increases in host countries and decreases in source countries. We exploit data on international bilateral migration flows and provide evidence consistent with this theoretical hypothesis. We propose various instrumentation strategies to identify the causal effect of skilled migration on log differences of GDP per capita, total factor productivity, and the wages of skilled workers between pairs of source and destination countries. These strategies aim to address the endogeneity problem that arises when international wage differences affect migration decisions.
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Peter Dixon, Maureen Rimmer & Bryan Roberts
Contemporary Economic Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper builds on earlier work that used a general-equilibrium model to show that reducing employment of unauthorized immigrants in the United States through a tighter border-security policy lowers the average income of legal residents. Here we exploit further the detail available in the general-equilibrium model to look at distributional effects, recognizing that the policy increases wage rates for low-paid legal workers. We assess the social welfare effect on legal workers using a constant elasticity of substitution social welfare function. We contrast our general-equilibrium approach to immigration analysis with the more commonly used partial-equilibrium, econometric approach.
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Choice of Country by the Foreign Born for PhD and Postdoctoral Study: A Sixteen-Country Perspective
Paula Stephan, Chiara Franzoni & Giuseppe Scellato
NBER Working Paper, February 2013
Abstract:
We analyze the decisions of foreign-born PhD and postdoctoral trainees to come to the United States vs. go to another country for training. Data are drawn from the GlobSci survey of scientists in sixteen countries working in four fields. We find that individuals come to the U.S. to train because of the prestige of its programs and/or career prospects. They are discouraged from training in the United States because of the perceived lifestyle. The availability of exchange programs elsewhere discourages coming for PhD study; the relative unattractiveness of fringe benefits discourages coming for postdoctoral study. Countries that have been nibbling at the U.S.-PhD and postdoc share are Australia, Germany, and Switzerland; France and Great Britain have gained appeal in attracting postdocs, but not in attracting PhD students. Canada has made gains in neither.
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Immigration and Wealth Inequality in Old Age: The Case of Israel
Noah Lewin-Epstein & Moshe Semyonov
Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, forthcoming
Abstract:
Relatively little research has been devoted to the long term implications of immigration for the accumulation of household wealth. This accumulation has significance both for the well-being in old age and for intergenerational transmission of advantage and disadvantage. Our study addresses the nativity wealth gap and examines its sources. Data for the analysis were obtained from the SHARE-Israel study conducted in 2005-06. Our sample includes 1,366 Jewish households, either native-born or immigrant. We use OLS regression to estimate the nativity wealth gap and arrive at a number of noteworthy findings. First, immigrant-native disparities are large and do not disappear even after many decades of residence. Second, an important source of the disparity in accumulated household wealth is the fact that immigrants are considerably less likely than natives to have received a substantial inheritance. Third, wealth is strongly related to household income and more so among some immigrant groups than among natives. Fourth, there is substantial variation in the wealth of immigrant groups defined by their geo-cultural origin.
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Linda Berg & Andrea Spehar
Policy Studies, March/April 2013, Pages 142-161
Abstract:
While the free movement of labour in the EU is generally depicted as a positive feature of the single market, it was also controversial in the debate on EU enlargement. Actors opposing enlargement argued that large waves of migrants from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) would 'swamp' Western labour markets, leading to so-called social tourism and increasing xenophobia. Contrary to the developments in other countries, Sweden was one of the only three Member States to immediately open its doors to citizens from the EU accession countries of 2004 and 2007. Sweden has also been one of the few EU countries to actively promote greater liberalisation of labour migration policy for third-country nationals (TCNs) within the EU, and the new Swedish Immigration Law of 2008 dramatically liberalised the TCN labour migration policy and made it more employer-driven. We argue that in order to understand why Sweden has supported increased labour mobility within and from outside of the EU, we need to complement existing explanations by analysing the preferences of the political parties. A two-dimensional analysis focusing on economy and culture provides an understanding of why so-called unholy coalitions of parties in support of liberal labour policies have emerged in Sweden during the 2000s. The article ends with a discussion of lessons learned from the Swedish case and wider implications for rights-based mobility in the EU.
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Binational Marriages in Sweden: Is There an EU Effect?
Karen Haandrikman
Population, Space and Place, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper explores and explains the partner choice of Swedes in the period 1991-2008. The partner market for Swedes has expanded considerably in the last few decades, because of EU expansion, globalisation processes, and an increased diversity of the migrant population. Besides increased opportunities, citizens who are better educated, younger, and more mobile might prefer foreign partners of their own kind. The paper focuses on marriages between Swedish-born and foreign-born partners and distinguishes people with Swedish-born parents from those with foreign-born parents. Using full-population register data, I conducted a systematic comparison between Swedes marrying EU partners and those marrying non-EU partners. I find that the binational marriage rate has increased over time, especially for native Swedish men and men who are second-generation Swedes. The increase is for the greater part attributable to an increase in the number of marriages to partners from outside the EU, whereas binational EU marriages have remained stable with no effects from EU accession. Patterns of binational marriages are highly gender specific: Finland being the most important supplier for foreign husbands, whereas Thai women are most popular amongst men. Against expectation, native Swedes in binational marriages are, by and large, older and less well educated.
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Patricia Greenfield & Blanca Quiroz
Journal of Applied Developmental Psychology, March-April 2013, Pages 108-118
Abstract:
We documented cross-cultural similarities and differences in values concerning personal achievement between Latino immigrant parents, a group of multiethnic teachers, and European American parents. We also explored intergenerational similarities and differences between parents and their fifth-grade children. The theoretical premise was that sociodemographic factors, such as education, drive cultural values, with more formal education associated with individualistic values and less formal education associated with collectivistic/familistic values. Responding to open-ended social dilemmas relevant to family life, Latino immigrant parents, averaging a fifth-grade education, responded more familistically than the more highly educated multiethnic teachers or European American parents. In contrast, no group differences in values showed up in situations where school practices do not directly impact family life. Intergenerational differences were few; but, in family-centered scenarios, European American fifth graders were significantly more collectivistic than European American parents, a finding that suggested the possibility that, in an individualistic culture, individualism is socialized with age.
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Openness, Extraversion and the Intention to Emigrate
Damarys Canache et al.
Journal of Research in Personality, August 2013, Pages 351-355
Abstract:
Economic, demographic and sociological factors influence the intention to emigrate, but variation in personality also may be consequential. In this report, data on intention to emigrate are drawn via nationally-representative samples from 22 countries in the Americas. Multivariate analyses permit attention to the key factors identified in past empirical research, but also enable examination of the effects of openness to experience and extraversion. Openness and extraversion both are shown to exert modest positive influence on the intention to emigrate. Additionally, heterogeneity in these effects is observed in that the influence of both traits is found to be conditional on a respondent's level of education.
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Matthew Sanderson
Social Science Research, May 2013, Pages 683-697
Abstract:
This paper empirically assesses how immigration affects international inequality by testing the relationship between immigration and national economic development across countries in different world income groups. A series of cross-national, longitudinal analyses demonstrate that, on average, immigration has a rather small, but positive long-term effect on development levels. However, the findings also indicate that immigration has a Matthew Effect (Merton, 1968) in the world-economy: immigration disproportionately benefits higher-income countries. Moreover, the wealthiest countries reap the largest gains from immigration. Thus, from the perspective of destination countries, immigration does not appear to be a panacea for international inequality. Instead, the results indicate that immigration actually reproduces, and even exacerbates, international inequality.
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Kim Ebert & Dina Okamoto
Social Forces, forthcoming
Abstract:
Collective action has been examined in studies of worker insurgency, homeless protest, the Civil Rights movement and white backlash against racial minorities. Relatively few studies, however, focus on noncontentious forms of immigrant collective action. Utilizing a new data set comprising over 1,000 immigrant civic events, we examine whether the civic and political environment within metropolitan areas affect civic engagement. Our results indicate that political opportunities and resources did not have uniform effects, but that institutional threats to immigrants deterred civic activity. Furthermore, we find that local restrictive efforts instigated solidarity events, while outreach efforts directed at immigrants facilitated community improvement projects. These findings suggest that conditions intensifying group boundaries between immigrants and natives and encouraging collective efficacy are important predictors of immigrant civic engagement.
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The politics of immigrant policy in the 50 US states, 2005-2011
James Monogan
Journal of Public Policy, April 2013, Pages 35-64
Abstract:
This article asks what shaped immigrant policy in the 50 states between 2005 and 2011. Theoretically, politicians are influenced by electoral considerations as they craft laws. Law-makers consider both current public opinion and how the electorate is likely to change, at least in the near future. Empirically, the article analyses an original dataset on immigrant-related laws enacted by the states with a Bayesian spatial conditionally autoregressive model. The analysis shows that state immigrant policy is affected primarily by legislative professionalism, electoral ideology, state wealth and change in the foreign-born population.
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Attracting Talent: Location Choices of Foreign-Born PhDs in the US
Jeffrey Grogger & Gordon Hanson
NBER Working Paper, February 2013
Abstract:
We use data from the NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates to examine the post-degree location choices of foreign-born students receiving PhDs from US universities in science and engineering. Over the period 1960 to 2008, 77% of foreign-born S&E PhDs state that they plan to stay in the United States. The foreign students more likely to stay in the US are those with stronger academic ability, measured in terms of parental educational attainment and the student's success in obtaining graduate fellowships. Foreign students staying in the United States thus appear to be positively selected in terms of academic ability. We also find that foreign students are more likely to stay in the United States if in recent years the US economy has had strong GDP growth or the birth country of the foreign student has had weak GDP growth. Foreign students are less likely to remain in the US if they are from countries with higher average income levels or that have recently democratized. Education and innovation may therefore be part of a virtuous cycle in which education enhances prospects for innovation in low-income countries and innovation makes residing in these countries more attractive for scientists and engineers.
