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Friday, July 29, 2016

Crime waves

Racial Profiling and Use of Force in Police Stops: How Local Events Trigger Periods of Increased Discrimination

Joscha Legewie

American Journal of Sociology, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Racial profiling and the disproportionate use of police force are controversial political issues. I argue that racial bias in the use of force increases after relevant events such as the shooting of a police officer by a black suspect. To examine this argument, I design a quasi experiment using data from 3.9 million time and geocoded pedestrian stops in New York City. The findings show that two fatal shootings of police officers by black suspects increased the use of police force against blacks substantially in the days after the shootings. The use of force against whites and Hispanics, however, remained unchanged, and there is no evidence for an effect of two other police murders by a white and Hispanic suspect. Aside from the importance for the debate on racial profiling and police use of force, this research reveals a general set of processes where events create intergroup conflict, foreground stereotypes, and trigger discriminatory responses.

 

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The Effects of DNA Databases on Crime

Jennifer Doleac

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Every U.S. state has a database of criminal offenders’ DNA profiles. These databases receive widespread attention in the media and popular culture, but there has been no rigorous analysis of their impact on crime. This paper intends to fill that gap. I exploit the details and timing of state DNA database expansions in two ways, first to address the effects of DNA profiling on individuals’ subsequent criminal behavior and then to address the aggregate effects on crime rates. I show that DNA databases deter crime by profiled offenders, reduce crime rates, and are more cost-effective than traditional law enforcement tools.

 

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An Empirical Analysis of Racial Differences in Police Use of Force

Roland Fryer

NBER Working Paper, July 2016

 

Abstract:

This paper explores racial differences in police use of force. On non-lethal uses of force, blacks and Hispanics are more than fifty percent more likely to experience some form of force in interactions with police. Adding controls that account for important context and civilian behavior reduces, but cannot fully explain, these disparities. On the most extreme use of force – officer-involved shootings – we find no racial differences in either the raw data or when contextual factors are taken into account. We argue that the patterns in the data are consistent with a model in which police officers are utility maximizers, a fraction of which have a preference for discrimination, who incur relatively high expected costs of officer-involved shootings.

 

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Sensitivity to the Ferguson Effect: The role of managerial organizational justice

Justin Nix & Scott Wolfe

Journal of Criminal Justice, December 2016, Pages 12–20

 

Purpose: We argue that the police have been adversely impacted by Ferguson-related negative publicity in ways beyond the supposed increase in crime (e.g., reduced motivation and increased perception of danger). Further, we suggest that organizational justice is a key factor that influences officers' sensitivity to such Ferguson Effects.

 

Methods: We used a sample of 510 sheriff's deputies surveyed 6 months after the incident in Ferguson. We explored whether organizational justice is associated with deputies' sensitivity to several manifestations of the Ferguson Effect using OLS and ordered logistic regression models.

 

Results: The results demonstrated that deputies who believed their supervisors were more organizationally fair were less likely to feel unmotivated, perceive more danger, believe their colleagues have been negatively impacted, or feel that US citizens and local residents have become more cynical toward the police in the post-Ferguson era.

 

Conclusions: Police supervisors who use organizational justice as a guiding managerial philosophy are more likely to shield their officers from the negative work-related outcomes that can follow recent Ferguson-type publicity. Supervisors should be fair, objective, honest, and respectful when dealing with their subordinates in order to communicate that the agency has their back even when it may appear the community does not.

 

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Spatial Dimensions of the Effect of Neighborhood Disadvantage on Delinquency

Matt Vogel & Scott South

Criminology, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Research examining the relationship between neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage and adolescent offending typically examines only the influence of residential neighborhoods. This strategy may be problematic as 1) neighborhoods are rarely spatially independent of each other and 2) adolescents spend an appreciable portion of their time engaged in activities outside of their immediate neighborhood. Therefore, characteristics of neighborhoods outside of, but geographically proximate to, residential neighborhoods may affect adolescents’ propensity to engage in delinquent behavior. We append a spatially lagged, distance-weighted measure of socioeconomic disadvantage in “extralocal” neighborhoods to the individual records of respondents participating in the first two waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 Cohort (N = 6,491). Results from negative binomial regression analyses indicate that the level of socioeconomic disadvantage in extralocal neighborhoods is inversely associated with youth offending, as theories of relative deprivation, structured opportunity, and routine activities would predict, and that the magnitude of this effect rivals that of the level of disadvantage in youths’ own residential neighborhoods. Moreover, socioeconomic disadvantage in extralocal neighborhoods suppresses the criminogenic influence of socioeconomic disadvantage in youths’ own neighborhoods, revealing stronger effects of local neighborhood disadvantage than would otherwise be observed.

 

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Neighborhood Violent Crime and Academic Growth in Chicago: Lasting Effects of Early Exposure

Julia Burdick-Will

Social Forces, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

A large body of research documents the importance of early experiences for later academic, social, and economic success. Exposure to an unsafe neighborhood is no exception. Living in a violent neighborhood can influence the stress levels, protective behaviors, and community interactions of both parents and children in ways that generate cumulative educational disadvantage. Using nine years (2002–2011) of detailed crime data from the Chicago Police Department and longitudinal administrative data from the Chicago Public Schools, I estimate the influence of early exposure to neighborhood violence on growth in standardized test scores over time. Student fixed effects are included to remove any bias due to constant differences between students. The results show that children from more violent neighborhoods fall farther behind their peers from safer neighborhoods as they progress through school. These effects are comparable in size to the independent association with socioeconomic disadvantage and an annual measure of more recent neighborhood violence exposure.

 

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The Prison Boom and Sentencing Policy

Derek Neal & Armin Rick

Journal of Legal Studies, January 2016, Pages 1-41

 

Abstract:

The existing literature on the role of changes in sentencing policies as drivers of growth in prison populations contains findings that appear contradictory. We present a new method for characterizing changes in the severity of expected punishments for offenders and build a new simulation model based on this method. We provide clear evidence that changes in sentencing policy drove recent growth in prison populations in the United States, and our approach sheds light on the reasons that some previous studies did not reach this conclusion. The shift to more punitive sentencing policies had a disproportionate effect on black communities, even though, for the most part, this shift did not target blacks or crimes that blacks commit relatively more than whites.

 

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An investigative analysis of 463 incidents of single-victim child abductions identified through Federal Law Enforcement

Janet Warren et al.

Aggression and Violent Behavior, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

We examined the characteristics of perpetrator, victim, and crime scene for 463 child abduction incidents involving a single perpetrator and single victim based upon case material submitted to federal law enforcement. The victims were predominantly female with sexual assault being the primary motivation for the abduction of both the female and male victims. Within this sample 55% of the female child victims and 49% of the male child victims were found dead or not recovered. Offenders who were identified as being criminally versatile were found more often to abduct the youngest and oldest children, to be between the ages of 30 to 59, and a stranger to their victim. In contrast, perpetrators with prior crimes against children tended more often to be below the age of 30 years, to demonstrate more of a propensity for abducting children of minority status, and to perpetrate crimes with a lower probability of holding their victims for more than 8 h. Only 5% of offenders who abducted a female child and none of the perpetrators who abducted male child victims during or after 1994 were found to be registered on a state or federal sex offender registry.

 

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The Effects of Local Police Surges on Crime and Arrests in New York City

John MacDonald, Jeffrey Fagan & Amanda Geller

PLoS ONE, June 2016

 

Abstract:

The New York Police Department (NYPD) under Operation Impact deployed extra police officers to high crime areas designated as impact zones. Officers were encouraged to conduct investigative stops in these areas. City officials credited the program as one of the leading causes of New York City’s low crime rate. We tested the effects of Operation Impact on reported crimes and arrests from 2004 to 2012 using a difference-in-differences approach. We used Poisson regression models to compare differences in crime and arrest counts before and after census block groups were designated as impact zones compared to census block groups in the same NYPD precincts but outside impact zones. Impact zones were significantly associated with reductions in total reported crimes, assaults, burglaries, drug violations, misdemeanor crimes, felony property crimes, robberies, and felony violent crimes. Impact zones were significantly associated with increases in total reported arrests, arrests for burglary, arrests for weapons, arrests for misdemeanor crimes, and arrests for property felony crimes. Impact zones were also significantly associated with increases in investigative stops for suspected crimes, but only the increase in stops made based on probable cause indicators of criminal behaviors were associated with crime reductions. The largest increase in investigative stops in impact zones was based on indicators of suspicious behavior that had no measurable effect on crime. The findings suggest that saturating high crime blocks with police helped reduce crime in New York City, but that the bulk of the investigative stops did not play an important role in the crime reductions. The findings indicate that crime reduction can be achieved with more focused investigative stops.

 

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Perils of police action: A cautionary tale from US data sets

Ted Miller et al.

Injury Prevention, forthcoming

 

Population: Those injured during US legal police intervention as recorded in 2012 Vital Statistics mortality census, 2012 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project nationwide inpatient and emergency department samples, and two 2015 newspaper censuses of deaths.

 

Exposure: 2012 and 2014 arrests from Federal Bureau of Investigation data adjusted for non-reporting jurisdictions; street stops and traffic stops that involved vehicle or occupant searches, without arrest, from the 2011 Police Public Contact Survey (PPCS), with the percentage breakdown by race computed from pooled 2005, 2008 and 2011 PPCS surveys due to small case counts.

 

Results: US police killed or injured an estimated 55 400 people in 2012 (95% CI 47 050 to 63 740 for cases coded as police involved). Blacks, Native Americans and Hispanics had higher stop/arrest rates per 10 000 population than white non-Hispanics and Asians. On average, an estimated 1 in 291 stops/arrests resulted in hospital-treated injury or death of a suspect or bystander. Ratios of admitted and fatal injury due to legal police intervention per 10 000 stops/arrests did not differ significantly between racial/ethnic groups. Ratios rose with age, and were higher for men than women.

 

Conclusions: Healthcare administrative data sets can inform public debate about injuries resulting from legal police intervention. Excess per capita death rates among blacks and youth at police hands are reflections of excess exposure.

 

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Gun Violence, Mental Illness, And Laws That Prohibit Gun Possession: Evidence From Two Florida Counties

Jeffrey Swanson et al.

Health Affairs, June 2016, Pages 1067-1075

 

Abstract:

Gun violence kills about ninety people every day in the United States, a toll measured in wasted and ruined lives and with an annual economic price tag exceeding $200 billion. Some policy makers suggest that reforming mental health care systems and improving point-of-purchase background checks to keep guns from mentally disturbed people will address the problem. Epidemiological research shows that serious mental illness contributes little to the risk of interpersonal violence but is a strong factor in suicide, which accounts for most firearm fatalities. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of gun restrictions focused on mental illness remains poorly understood. This article examines gun-related suicide and violent crime in people with serious mental illnesses, and whether legal restrictions on firearm sales to people with a history of mental health adjudication are effective in preventing gun violence. Among the study population in two large Florida counties, we found that 62 percent of violent gun crime arrests and 28 percent of gun suicides involved individuals not legally permitted to have a gun at the time. Suggested policy reforms include enacting risk-based gun removal laws and prohibiting guns from people involuntarily detained in short-term psychiatric hospitalizations.

 

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Race and State in City Police Spending Growth: 1980 to 2010

Robert Vargas & Philip McHarris

Sociology of Race and Ethnicity, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

What has driven city police spending growth in large cities? Studies show that racial threat is an important predictor, but scholars overlook how cities can afford spending increases during hard financial times. Research suggests that federal grants through the 1994 Clinton crime bill and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security play important roles. In this article, the authors ask whether racial threat and federal aid had an interrelated role in city police spending from 1980 to 2010. Using a unique data set on 88 large cities, the authors find that Clinton crime bill grants were associated with city police spending, especially in cities with growing Black populations. The authors also find that from 2000 to 2010, overall federal aid was associated with city police spending, especially in cities with growing foreign-born populations. This study shows that the state, through relationships between federal and local government, has been a critical missing component in the process whereby racial threat shapes local police spending.

 

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Homogeneity and Inequality: School Discipline Inequality and the Role of Racial Composition

Linsey Edwards

Social Forces, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Research consistently demonstrates that black students are disproportionately subject to behavioral sanctions, yet little is known about contextual variation. This paper explores the relationship between school racial composition and racial inequality in discipline. Prior work suggests that demographic composition predicts harsh punishment of minorities. Accordingly, a threat framework suggests that increases in black student enrollment correspond to increases in punitive school policies. Results from this paper find some support for this hypothesis, finding that the percent of black students in a school is related to increased odds of suspension/expulsion, and differential effects of behavior partially mediate these relationships. However, I also find that a traditional threat narrative may be insufficient. Black students may be most likely to experience unequal sanctions on their behavior in racially homogeneous contexts — whether homogeneously black or white. These results suggest that more research is needed to understand how the social organization of schools contributes to discipline inequality.

 

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Likelihood-Based Inference and Prediction in Spatio-Temporal Panel Count Models for Urban Crimes

Roman Liesenfeld, Jean-François Richard & Jan Vogler

Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

We develop a panel count model with a latent spatio-temporal heterogeneous state process for monthly severe crimes at the census-tract level in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Our dataset combines Uniform Crime Reporting data with socio-economic data. The likelihood is estimated by efficient importance sampling techniques for high-dimensional spatial models. Estimation results confirm the broken-windows hypothesis whereby less severe crimes are leading indicators for severe crimes. In addition to ML parameter estimates, we compute several other statistics of interest for law enforcement such as spatio-temporal elasticities of severe crimes with respect to less severe crimes, out-of-sample forecasts, predictive distributions and validation test statistics.

 

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Does Gun Control Reduce Violent Crime?

Gary Kleck, Tomislav Victor Kovandzic & Jon Bellows

Florida State University Working Paper, June 2016

 

Abstract:

Do gun control laws reduce violence? To answer this question, a city-level cross-sectional analysis was performed on data pertaining to every U.S. city with a population of at least 25,000 in 1990 (n=1,078), assessing the impact of 19 major types of gun control laws, and controlling for gun ownership levels and numerous other possible confounders. Models were estimated using instrumental variables regression to address endogeneity of gun levels due to reverse causality. Results indicate that gun control laws generally show no evidence of effects on crime rates, possibly because gun levels do not have a net positive effect on violence rates. Although a minority of laws seem to show effects, they are as likely to imply violence-increasing effects as violence-decreasing effects. There were, however, a few noteworthy exceptions: requiring a license to possess a gun, and bans on purchases of guns by alcoholics appear to reduce rates of both homicide and robbery. Weaker evidence suggests that bans on gun purchases by criminals and on possession by mentally ill persons may reduce assault rates, and that bans on gun purchase by criminals may also reduce robbery rates.

 

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New Evidence on the Impact of Concealed Carry Weapon Laws on Crime

Mehdi Barati

International Review of Law and Economics, August 2016, Pages 76–83

 

Abstract:

For more than a decade, there has been an academic debate over the deterrence effect of concealed carry weapon (shall issue) laws. However, all previous studies do not consider the types of gun-carry laws in place prior to the adoption of the “shall issue” laws. Using difference-in-difference methodology, findings of this study imply that considering the type of regulations that states had prior to passing “shall issue” laws matters and that “shall issue” laws do have a deterrence effect under certain circumstances. Adopting “shall issue” laws only reduces the crime rate in states with “no issue” laws in place, and “shall issue” laws are redundant to “may issue” (restricted concealed carry) laws in terms of crime reduction.

 

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Escapes From Correctional Custody: A New Examination of an Old Phenomenon

Bryce Elling Peterson, Adam Fera & Jeff Mellow

Prison Journal, September 2016, Pages 511-533

 

Abstract:

Despite a shared interest in escapes from correctional custody by policy makers, facility administrators, media, and the public, there is a dearth of empirical research on this event. Our study synthesizes prior research, distinguishing between inmate-, incident-, and facility-level variables. We introduce the Correctional Incident Database, which employs a novel approach for collecting escape data. Finally, we describe a sample of 611 inmates involved in 503 escape incidents from 398 facilities. Our findings indicate that escapes from jail are a frequent, yet overlooked, phenomenon. The results also challenge the (mis)perception that escapes are often sensational and violent events.

 

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Crime-Reduction Effects of Open-street CCTV: Conditionality Considerations

Hyungjin Lim & Pamela Wilcox

Justice Quarterly, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

This study addresses the conditional nature of the effectiveness of open-street CCTV (closed circuit television) by examining the differences in the effects (1) between daytime and nighttime crime, (2) between weekday and weekend crime, (3) across specific-crime offenses, and (4) depending on CCTV site characteristics, including location type (e.g. downtown, business district, school/university, or residential area) and the site’s base rate of crime. This study used HLM (hierarchical linear modeling) with 84 repeated measures across 34 camera locations in Cincinnati, Ohio, while also accounting for overlapping camera areas. Overall, the findings provided minimal evidence of the effectiveness of CCTV in reducing crime, though some types of crime were reduced in residential areas especially, and effectiveness was clearly interdependent with an area’s base rate of crime. Finally, WDQ analyses showed that diffusion of benefits occurred much more often than displacement in cases where there was a crime reduction, post-CCTV.

 

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Fewer vacants, fewer crimes? Impacts of neighborhood revitalization policies on crime

Jonathan Spader, Jenny Schuetz & Alvaro Cortes

Regional Science and Urban Economics, September 2016, Pages 73–84

 

Abstract:

The relationship between neighborhood physical environment and social disorder, particularly crime, is of critical interest to urban economists and sociologists, as well as local governments. Over the past 50 years, various policy interventions to improve physical conditions in distressed neighborhoods have also been heralded for their potential to reduce crime. Urban renewal programs in the mid-20th century and public housing redevelopment in the 1990s both subscribed to the idea that signs of physical disorder invite social disorder. More recently, the federal Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) provided funding for local policymakers to rehabilitate or demolish foreclosed and vacant properties, in order to mitigate negative spillovers — including crime — on surrounding neighborhoods. In this paper, we investigate the impact of NSP investments on localized crime patterns in Cleveland, Chicago and Denver. Results suggest that demolition activity in Cleveland decreased burglary and theft, but do not find measurable impacts of property rehabilitation investments — although the precision of these estimates are limited by the number of rehabilitation activities.

 

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A TASER conducted electrical weapon with cardiac biomonitoring capability: Proof of concept and initial human trial

Jason Stopyra et al.

Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine, October 2016, Pages 48–52

 

Introduction: Despite research demonstrating the overall safety of Conducted Electrical Weapons (CEWs), commonly known by the brand name TASER®, concerns remain regarding cardiac safety. The addition of cardiac biomonitoring capability to a CEW could prove useful and even lifesaving in the rare event of a medical crisis by detecting and analyzing cardiac rhythms during the period immediately after CEW discharge.

 

Objective: To combine an electrocardiogram (ECG) device with a CEW to detect and store ECG signals while still allowing the CEW to perform its primary function of delivering an incapacitating electrical discharge.

 

Methods: This work was performed in three phases. In Phase 1 standard law enforcement issue CEW cartridges were modified to demonstrate transmission of ECG signals. In Phase 2, a miniaturized ECG recorder was combined with a standard issue CEW and tested. In Phase 3, a prototype CEW with on-board cardiac biomonitoring was tested on human volunteers to assess its ability to perform its primary function of electrical incapacitation.

 

Results: Bench testing demonstrated that slightly modified CEW cartridge wires transmitted simulated ECG signals produced by an ECG rhythm generator and from a human volunteer. Ultimately, a modified CEW incorporating ECG monitoring successfully delivered incapacitating current to human volunteers and successfully recorded ECG signals from subcutaneous CEW probes after firing.

 

Conclusion: An ECG recording device was successfully incorporated into a standard issue CEW without impeding the functioning of the device. This serves as proof-of-concept that safety measures such as cardiac biomonitoring can be incorporated into CEWs and possibly other law enforcement devices.

 

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White fear, dehumanization, and low empathy: Lethal combinations for shooting biases

Yara Mekawi, Konrad Bresin & Carla Hunter

Cultural Diversity and Ethnic Minority Psychology, July 2016, Pages 322-332

 

Method: Participants (N = 290) completed a dehumanization implicit association test and simulated shooting task, then reported their fear of racial minorities (i.e., White fear) and empathic ability.

 

Results: We found that (a) individuals high in White fear showed a shooting bias, such that they had a lower threshold for shooting Black relative to White and East Asian targets, (b) Dehumanization moderated the White fear and shooting bias relation, such that individuals high in White fear and high in dehumanization had a significantly more liberal shooting threshold for Black versus White targets, and (c) Empathy moderated the White fear and shooting bias relation, such that people who were high in White fear and low in empathic ability had a more liberal shooting threshold for Black versus White targets. In sum, fearing racial/ethnic minorities can have devastating shooting bias outcomes for Black individuals, but this effect is stronger when people also dehumanize Black individuals, and weaker when people have high empathy.

 

Conclusions: These findings contribute to the literature by identifying theory driven moderators that identify both risk and protective factors in predicting racial shooting biases.

 

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Race, Ethnicity, Risky Lifestyles, and Violent Victimization: A Test of a Mediation Model

Arelys Madero-Hernandez & Bonnie Fisher

Race and Justice, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Empirical studies have established that Blacks and Hispanics are two of the most violently victimized racial/ethnic groups in the United States, but the mechanisms that underlie these disparities in victimization risk are not well understood. This study tests a mediation model developed from criminal opportunity theories that may explain the disparities. Using data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods, the results show that Black and Hispanic adolescents were twice as likely as their White counterparts to be violently victimized, and these disparities remained after controlling for demographic characteristics and prior victimization. As to the hypothesized sources of these disparities, there was mixed evidence regarding the mediation model. Although risky lifestyles were significantly related to violent victimization and eliminated all disparities between Black and White youth, they failed to eliminate victimization disparities between Hispanics and White youth. The implications of these findings are discussed in light of theory and victimization prevention.

 

By KEVIN LEWIS | 09:00:00 AM

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Not very ladylike

Manufacturing Gender Inequality in the New Economy: High School Training for Work in Blue-Collar Communities

April Sutton, Amanda Bosky & Chandra Muller

American Sociological Review, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Tensions between the demands of the knowledge-based economy and remaining, blue-collar jobs underlie renewed debates about whether schools should emphasize career and technical training or college-preparatory curricula. We add a gendered lens to this issue, given the male-dominated nature of blue-collar jobs and women’s greater returns to college. Using the ELS:2002, this study exploits spatial variation in school curricula and jobs to investigate local dynamics that shape gender stratification. Results suggest a link between high school training and jobs in blue-collar communities that structures patterns of gender inequality into early adulthood. Although high school training in blue-collar communities reduced both men’s and women’s odds of four-year college enrollment, it had gender-divergent labor market consequences. Men in blue-collar communities took more blue-collar courses, had higher rates of blue-collar employment, and earned similar wages relative to otherwise comparable men from non-blue-collar communities. Women were less likely to work and to be employed in professional occupations, and they suffered severe wage penalties relative to their male peers and women from non-blue-collar communities. These relationships were due partly to high schools in blue-collar communities offering more blue-collar and fewer advanced college-preparatory courses. This curricular tradeoff may benefit men, but it appears to disadvantage women.

 

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Perceptions of Sexual Harassment by Evidence Quality, Perceiver Gender, Feminism, and Right Wing Authoritarianism: Debunking Popular Myths

Gargi Bhattacharya & Margaret Stockdale

Law and Human Behavior, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

This study examined the critique in public discourse that sexual harassment (SH) victim advocates, particularly women and feminists, ignore the quality of evidence in a SH claim and are reluctant to find evidence of a false accusation. To balance the inquiry, the study also examined whether right wing authoritarians (RWAs) also ignore evidence quality and presume such claims are false accusations. Participants were 961 U.S. adults (51% female) who completed an online experiment in which they read either a gender harassment (GH) or unwanted sexual attention (USA) scenario of hostile work environment SH and rated the scenario on severity, perceived guilt of the accused, belief that the accused should receive negative job consequences, and likelihood that the claimant was making a false accusation. Scenarios varied by the strength of the evidence in support of the SH claim. Participants completed measures of identification with and support for feminism, RWA, and demographic variables. Results found that contrary to expectations, evidence had a stronger effect on women’s, feminists’, and feminism supporters’ perceptions and to a lesser extent RWAs’ perceptions of the scenarios. When evidence was weak, women and feminists, compared to others, were less supportive of the prosecution, but when evidence was strong they were more supportive of the prosecution than were others. These findings address criticisms that advocates for gender equity and victim’s rights, particularly women and feminists, are unable to reach fair judgments of SH complaints.

 

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The Consequences of the National Math and Science Performance Environment for Gender Differences in STEM Aspiration

Allison Mann & Thomas DiPrete

Sociological Science, July 2016

 

Abstract:

Using the lens of expectation states theory, which we formalize in Bayesian terms, this article examines the influences of national performance and self-assessment contexts on gender differences in the rate of aspiring to science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) occupations. We demonstrate that girls hold themselves to a higher performance standard than do boys before forming STEM orientations, and this gender “standards gap” grows with the strength of a country’s performance environment. We also demonstrate that a repeatedly observed paradox in this literature — namely, that the STEM gender gap increases with a more strongly gender-egalitarian national culture — vanishes when the national performance culture is taken into account. Whereas other research has proposed theories to explain the apparent paradox as an empirical reality, we demonstrate that the empirical relationship is as expected; net of the performance environment, countries with a more gender-egalitarian culture have a smaller gender gap in STEM orientations. We also find, consistent with our theory, that the proportion of high-performing girls among STEM aspirants grows with the strength of the national performance environment even as the overall gender gap in STEM orientations grows because of offsetting behavior by students at the lower end of the performance distribution.

 

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“Relational by Nature”? Men and Women Do Not Differ in Physiological Response to Social Stressors Faced by Token Women

Catherine Taylor

American Journal of Sociology, July 2016, Pages 49–89

 

Abstract:

Women in male-dominated occupations report negative workplace social climates, whereas most men in female-dominated occupations report positive workplace social climates. Using a laboratory experiment mimicking the negative workplace social climates experienced by these token women, the author examines whether women are more sensitive to negative workplace social climates than men are or if, instead, men and women react similarly. Using salivary cortisol, the author finds that token men and token women are equally likely to exhibit a physiological stress response to social exclusion on the basis of gender. A second experiment shows that token men and token women who are socially included do not exhibit physiological stress response. Findings imply that (1) social exclusion on the basis of gender may be associated with physiological stress response and consequent negative health outcomes and (2) combined social-structural and social-interactional components of token women’s workplace climates would be stressors to both men and women workers.

 

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Women 1.5 Times More Likely to Leave STEM Pipeline after Calculus Compared to Men: Lack of Mathematical Confidence a Potential Culprit

Jessica Ellis, Bailey Fosdick & Chris Rasmussen

PLoS ONE, July 2016

 

Abstract:

The substantial gender gap in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workforce can be traced back to the underrepresentation of women at various milestones in the career pathway. Calculus is a necessary step in this pathway and has been shown to often dissuade people from pursuing STEM fields. We examine the characteristics of students who begin college interested in STEM and either persist or switch out of the calculus sequence after taking Calculus I, and hence either continue to pursue a STEM major or are dissuaded from STEM disciplines. The data come from a unique, national survey focused on mainstream college calculus. Our analyses show that, while controlling for academic preparedness, career intentions, and instruction, the odds of a woman being dissuaded from continuing in calculus is 1.5 times greater than that for a man. Furthermore, women report they do not understand the course material well enough to continue significantly more often than men. When comparing women and men with above-average mathematical abilities and preparedness, we find women start and end the term with significantly lower mathematical confidence than men. This suggests a lack of mathematical confidence, rather than a lack of mathematically ability, may be responsible for the high departure rate of women. While it would be ideal to increase interest and participation of women in STEM at all stages of their careers, our findings indicate that if women persisted in STEM at the same rate as men starting in Calculus I, the number of women entering the STEM workforce would increase by 75%.

 

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Measuring Deliberative Conditions: An Analysis of Participant Freedom and Equality in Federal Open Market Committee Deliberation

Joseph Gardner & John Woolley

Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Drawing from the literature on deliberative conditions, we analyze thirty years of verbatim transcripts of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The transcripts provide a rare opportunity for the systematic empirical analysis of deliberative conditions. The importance of the FOMC, and its recent policy failures, makes the case particularly interesting. Deliberative scholars argue that deliberation should occur in a setting where participants are free and equal. Using a unique set of deliberative measures, our model shows that FOMC members do enjoy deliberative freedom. In contrast, we find inequalities in rates of participation. Some deviation from equality may be reasonable. However, we demonstrate a sustained pattern of gender inequality in participation that could in turn influence the FOMC’s policy choices and which is difficult to justify on any grounds.

 

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High Power Mindsets Reduce Gender Identification and Benevolent Sexism Among Women (But Not Men)

Andrea Vial & Jaime Napier

Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

We examine how feelings of power affect gender identification and the endorsement of sexism. Participants wrote essays about a time when they felt powerful or powerless (Studies 1–3) or about an event unrelated to power (Studies 2–3). Then, they reported how much they identified with their gender group. When primed with high power, women reported lower levels of gender identification, as compared to those primed with low power (Studies 1–2) and to a control condition (Studies 2–3). In Study 3, we also found that women primed with high power endorsed benevolent (but not hostile) sexism less than women in both the low power and control conditions (Study 3). Power had no impact on men's gender identification or sexism.

 

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Men set their own cites high: Gender and self-citation across fields and over time

Molly King et al.

Stanford University Working Paper, June 2016

 

Abstract:

How common is self-citation in scholarly publication and does the practice vary by gender? Using novel methods and a dataset of 1.5 million research papers in the scholarly database JSTOR published between 1779-2011, we find that nearly 10% of references are self-citations by a paper's authors. We further find that over the years between 1779-2011, men cite their own papers 56% more than women do. In the last two decades of our data, men self-cite 70% more than women. Women are also more than ten percentage points more likely than men to not cite their own previous work at all. Despite increased representation of women in academia, this gender gap in self-citation rates has remained stable over the last 50 years. We break down self-citation patterns by academic field and number of authors, and comment on potential mechanisms behind these observations. These findings have important implications for scholarly visibility and likely consequences for academic careers.

 

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Gender Performance Gaps: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Role of Gender Differences in Sleep Cycles

Lester Lusher & Vasil Yasenov

University of California Working Paper, June 2016

 

Abstract:

Sleep studies suggest that girls go to sleep earlier, are more active in the morning, and cope with sleep deprivation better than boys. We provide the first causal evidence on how gender differences in sleep cycles can help explain the gender performance gap. We exploit over 240,000 assignment-level grades from a quasi-experiment with a community of middle and high schools where students' schedules alternated between morning and afternoon start times each month. Relative to girls, we find that boys' achievement benefits from a later start time. For classes taught at the beginning of the school day, our estimates explain up to 16% of the gender performance gap.

 

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Who Has the Advantage? Race and Sex Differences in Returns to Social Capital at Home and at School

Mikaela Dufur et al.

Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, September 2016, Pages 27–40

 

Abstract:

A growing body of literature suggests that social capital is a valuable resource for children and youth, and that returns to that capital can increase academic success. However, relatively little is known about whether youth from different backgrounds build social capital in the same way and whether they receive the same returns to that capital. We examine the creation of and returns to social capital in family and school settings on academic achievement, measured as standardized test scores, for white boys, black boys, white girls, and black girls who were seniors in high school in the United States. Our findings suggest that while youth in different groups build social capital in largely the same way, differences exist by race and sex as to how family social capital affects academic achievement. Girls obtain greater returns to family social capital than do boys, but no group receives significant returns to school social capital after controlling for individual- and school-level characteristics.

 

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The Compassionate Sexist? How Benevolent Sexism Promotes and Undermines Gender Equality in the Workplace

Ivona Hideg & Lance Ferris

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Although sexist attitudes are generally thought to undermine support for employment equity (EE) policies supporting women, we argue that the effects of benevolent sexism are more complex. Across 4 studies, we extend the ambivalent sexism literature by examining both the positive and the negative effects benevolent sexism has for the support of gender-based EE policies. On the positive side, we show that individuals who endorse benevolent sexist attitudes on trait measures of sexism (Study 1) and individuals primed with benevolent sexist attitudes (Study 2) are more likely to support an EE policy, and that this effect is mediated by feelings of compassion. On the negative side, we find that this support extends only to EE policies that promote the hiring of women in feminine, and not in masculine, positions (Study 3 and 4). Thus, while benevolent sexism may appear to promote gender equality, it subtly undermines it by contributing to occupational gender segregation and leading to inaction in promoting women in positions in which they are underrepresented (i.e., masculine positions).

 

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“Girls should cook, rather than kick!” – Female soccer players under stereotype threat

Johanna Hermann & Regina Vollmeyer

Psychology of Sport and Exercise, September 2016, Pages 94–101

 

Abstract:

Based on the stereotype threat theory (Steele & Aronson, 1995), we tested if female soccer players’ performance decreased when the stereotype, “females are bad at soccer,” was activated. Additionally, girls under stereotype threat were assumed to experience lower flow while playing soccer and to be more worried, as compared to those in the control condition. The hypotheses were tested in three German soccer clubs (N = 36; age: M = 14.94, SD = 1.22). Participants completed a dribbling task two times (pre-post design) while their time was recorded. Flow and worry were assessed after each dribbling task. In between the two dribbling tasks, the girls read an article about either the incompetence of female soccer players or the growing popularity of soccer. The results showed that girls in the stereotype threat condition needed significantly more time to complete the dribbling task than did those in the control condition. No differences between the two conditions were observed with regard to flow and worry. These findings are discussed in terms of different mediating processes postulated in the stereotype threat literature focusing on sports.

 

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Gender stereotypes and intellectual performance: Stigma consciousness as a buffer against stereotype validation

Jason Clark et al.

Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Previous research has found that activating self-relevant, negative stereotypes after a task may increase people's certainty about their own poor performance (i.e., stereotype validation). The current research examined how individual differences in stigma consciousness may moderate these effects. Building from past findings, we hypothesized that high stigma consciousness in women would be associated with lower susceptibility to gender stereotype validation — due to heightened motivation to avoid, reject, and/or react against perceived bias. In two studies, participants completed a difficult test on the subject of business economics. When the gender stereotype about business ability was made salient afterward, no evidence of stereotype validation emerged among women high in stigma consciousness. However, for women with lower stigma consciousness, the data suggest that stereotype activation validated negative views of their own performance and, in turn, had an adverse effect on related attitudes and beliefs about their abilities.

 

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From taste-based to statistical discrimination

William Neilson & Shanshan Ying

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, September 2016, Pages 116–128

 

Abstract:

Consider hiring managers who care not just about productivity but also some other, unrelated characteristic. If they treat that ascriptive characteristic differently across groups by, for example, valuing beauty more for women than men, then the hired women will be better looking but less productive, on average. This taste-based discrimination, focused entirely on an ascriptive characteristic, can lead to productivity-based statistical discrimination by the firm’s subsequent hiring managers who observe from their workforce that women tend to produce less. This identifies a new channel behind statistical discrimination that arises from the behavior of prior hiring managers.

 

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To Comply or Not to Comply: Evaluating Compliance with Title IX of the Educational Amendments of 1972

Alixandra Yanus & Karen O’Connor

Journal of Women, Politics & Policy, Summer 2016, Pages 341-358

 

Abstract:

This article examines the extent to which colleges and universities comply with the proportional opportunity test prescribed during the implementation of Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972. Using data from the US Department of Education, we consider proportionality in terms of both roster spots and finances for male and female athletes at Division I colleges and universities. We find that the proportionality gap is particularly large for historically Black colleges and institutions in the South; inequalities exist in terms of both number of athletes and expenditures. These results suggest a need for continued monitoring and enforcement of policy guidelines to ensure equal opportunity for men and women on college campuses.

 

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"To Bluff like a Man or Fold like a Girl?" – Gender Biased Deceptive Behavior in Online Poker

Jussi Palomäki et al.

PLoS ONE, July 2016

 

Abstract:

Evolutionary psychology suggests that men are more likely than women to deceive to bolster their status and influence. Also gender perception influences deceptive behavior, which is linked to pervasive gender stereotypes: women are typically viewed as weaker and more gullible than men. We assessed bluffing in an online experiment (N = 502), where participants made decisions to bluff or not in simulated poker tasks against opponents represented by avatars. Participants bluffed on average 6% more frequently at poker tables with female-only avatars than at tables with male-only or gender mixed avatars—a highly significant effect in games involving repeated decisions. Nonetheless, participants did not believe the avatar genders affected their decisions. Males bluffed 13% more frequently than females. Unlike most economic games employed exclusively in research contexts, online poker is played for money by tens of millions of people worldwide. Thus, gender effects in bluffing have significant monetary consequences for poker players.

 

By KEVIN LEWIS | 09:00:00 AM

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Grounded

The Effect of Recycling versus Trashing on Consumption: Theory and Experimental Evidence

Monic Sun & Remi Trudel

Journal of Marketing Research, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

This article proposes a utilitarian model in which recycling could reduce consumers' negative emotions from wasting resources (i.e., taking more resources than what is being consumed) and increase consumers' positive emotions from the disposal of consumed resources. The authors provide evidence for each component of the utility function using a series of choice problems, and formulate hypotheses based on a parsimonious utilitarian model. Experiments with real disposal behavior support the model hypotheses. The findings suggest that the positive emotions associated with recycling can overpower the negative emotions associated with wasting. As a result, consumers could use a larger amount of resource when recycling is an option and more strikingly, this amount could go beyond the point at which their marginal consumption utility becomes zero. The authors extend the theoretical model and introduce acquisition utility and the moderating effect of cost of recycling (financial, physical, and mental). From a policy perspective, this research argues for a better understanding of consumers' disposal behavior to increase the effectiveness of environmental policies and campaigns.

 

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Does Legalization Reduce Black Market Activity? Evidence from a Global Ivory Experiment and Elephant Poaching Data

Solomon Hsiang & Nitin Sekar

NBER Working Paper, June 2016

 

Abstract:

Black markets are estimated to represent a fifth of global economic activity, but their response to policy is poorly understood because participants systematically hide their actions. It is widely hypothesized that relaxing trade bans in illegal goods allows legal supplies to competitively displace illegal supplies, but a richer economic theory provides more ambiguous predictions. Here we evaluate the first major global legalization experiment in an internationally banned market, where a monitoring system established before the experiment enables us to observe the behavior of illegal suppliers before and after. International trade of ivory was banned in 1989, with global elephant poaching data collected by field researchers since 2003. A one-time legal sale of ivory stocks in 2008 was designed as an experiment, but its global impact has not been evaluated. We find that international announcement of the legal ivory sale corresponds with an abrupt ~66% increase in illegal ivory production across two continents, and a possible ten-fold increase in its trend. An estimated ~71% increase in ivory smuggling out of Africa corroborates this finding, while corresponding patterns are absent from natural mortality and alternative explanatory variables. These data suggest the widely documented recent increase in elephant poaching likely originated with the legal sale. More generally, these results suggest that changes to producer costs and/or consumer demand induced by legal sales can have larger effects than displacement of illegal production in some global black markets, implying that partial legalization of banned goods does not necessarily reduce black market activity.

 

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Association Between Unconventional Natural Gas Development in the Marcellus Shale and Asthma Exacerbations

Sara Rasmussen et al.

JAMA Internal Medicine, forthcoming

 

Importance: Asthma is common and can be exacerbated by air pollution and stress. Unconventional natural gas development (UNGD) has community and environmental impacts. In Pennsylvania, UNGD began in 2005, and by 2012, 6253 wells had been drilled. There are no prior studies of UNGD and objective respiratory outcomes.

 

Design: A nested case-control study comparing patients with asthma with and without exacerbations from 2005 through 2012 treated at the Geisinger Clinic, which provides primary care services to over 400 000 patients in Pennsylvania. Patients with asthma aged 5 to 90 years (n = 35 508) were identified in electronic health records; those with exacerbations were frequency matched on age, sex, and year of event to those without.

 

Exposures: On the day before each patient’s index date (cases, date of event or medication order; controls, contact date), we estimated activity metrics for 4 UNGD phases (pad preparation, drilling, stimulation [hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking”], and production) using distance from the patient’s home to the well, well characteristics, and the dates and durations of phases.

 

Results: We identified 20 749 mild, 1870 moderate, and 4782 severe asthma exacerbations, and frequency matched these to 18 693, 9350, and 14 104 control index dates, respectively. In 3-level adjusted models, there was an association between the highest group of the activity metric for each UNGD phase compared with the lowest group for 11 of 12 UNGD-outcome pairs: odds ratios (ORs) ranged from 1.5 (95% CI, 1.2-1.7) for the association of the pad metric with severe exacerbations to 4.4 (95% CI, 3.8-5.2) for the association of the production metric with mild exacerbations. Six of the 12 UNGD-outcome associations had increasing ORs across quartiles. Our findings were robust to increasing levels of covariate control and in sensitivity analyses that included evaluation of some possible sources of unmeasured confounding.

 

Conclusions and Relevance: Residential UNGD activity metrics were statistically associated with increased risk of mild, moderate, and severe asthma exacerbations. Whether these associations are causal awaits further investigation, including more detailed exposure assessment.

 

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The Cost of Unconventional Gas Extraction: A Hedonic Analysis

Michael Delgado, Todd Guilfoos & Andrew Boslett

Resource and Energy Economics, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

We focus on identification and estimation of potentially negative environmental impacts of unconventional natural gas extraction on property values in the United States and advance previous research by contributing new data and new identification strategies for isolating these potential impacts. Our study area consists of two counties in Pennsylvania that are home to large amounts of unconventional natural gas extraction but are otherwise isolated from other resource extraction industries or large urban areas. We deploy parametric, semiparametric, and matching hedonic regression models that include recent quasi-experimental methods and, in contrast to previous research and much popular intuition, we fail to find robust significance that negative environmental externalities of natural gas extraction are manifested in nearby property values. While there may be plausible risks associated with unconventional natural gas extraction, we do not find consistent evidence to suggest that these risks significantly affect nearby property values.

 

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Assessment of neighbourhood-level socioeconomic status as a modifier of air pollution–asthma associations among children in Atlanta

Cassandra O'Lenick et al.

Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, forthcoming

 

Background: A broad literature base provides evidence of association between air pollution and paediatric asthma. Socioeconomic status (SES) may modify these associations; however, previous studies have found inconsistent evidence regarding the role of SES.

 

Methods: Effect modification of air pollution–paediatric asthma morbidity by multiple indicators of neighbourhood SES was examined in Atlanta, Georgia. Emergency department (ED) visit data were obtained for 5–18 years old with a diagnosis of asthma in 20-county Atlanta during 2002–2008. Daily ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA)-level concentrations of ozone, nitrogen dioxide, fine particulate matter and elemental carbon were estimated using ambient monitoring data and emissions-based chemical transport model simulations. Pollutant–asthma associations were estimated using a case-crossover approach, controlling for temporal trends and meteorology. Effect modification by ZCTA-level (neighbourhood) SES was examined via stratification.

 

Results: We observed stronger air pollution–paediatric asthma associations in ‘deprivation areas’ (eg, ≥20% of the ZCTA population living in poverty) compared with ‘non-deprivation areas’. When stratifying analyses by quartiles of neighbourhood SES, ORs indicated stronger associations in the highest and lowest SES quartiles and weaker associations among the middle quartiles.

 

Conclusions: Our results suggest that neighbourhood-level SES is a factor contributing vulnerability to air pollution-related paediatric asthma morbidity in Atlanta. Children living in low SES environments appear to be especially vulnerable given positive ORs and high underlying asthma ED rates. Inconsistent findings of effect modification among previous studies may be partially explained by choice of SES stratification criteria, and the use of multiplicative models combined with differing baseline risk across SES populations.

 

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Teaching an Old Dog New Tricks: Firm Learning from Environmental Regulation

Emily Galloway & Erik Paul Johnson

Energy Economics, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

We examine a new mechanism by which environmental regulation can increase efficiency: intra-firm knowledge spillovers due to environmental regulation. County-level non-attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards creates spatial variation in the degree of regulatory stringency, as states impose stronger environmental regulation in non-attainment counties. We use this spatial variation to examine how the efficiency of electricity generators responds to increases in regulation. We show that, in response to increased regulatory stringency, electricity generators find technical efficiency enhancements and then transfer these enhancements to other units within their fleet. We find that a change in regulatory stringency translates to within-firm spillovers of 3-4%, and that these gains occur at least 3 years after the increase in regulatory stringency.

 

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The mere green effect: An fMRI study of pro-environmental advertisements

Stephanie Vezich, Benjamin Gunter & Matthew Lieberman

Social Neuroscience, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Self-report evidence suggests that consumers prefer green products (i.e., pro-environmental) to standard products, but this is not reflected in purchase behaviors. To understand this disconnect, we exposed participants in a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner to green and standard ads. After viewing each ad, participants rated liking and perceived sustainability. Ratings were more favorable for green ads than for control ads, but the functional MRI data suggested an opposite pattern — participants showed greater activation in regions associated with personal value and reward (ventromedial prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum) in response to control ads relative to green ads. In addition, participants showed greater activity in these regions to the extent that they reported liking control ads, but there was no such trend for green ads. In line with a neuroeconomic account, we suggest that activity in these regions may be indexing a value signal computed during message exposure that may influence downstream purchase decisions, in contrast to self-reported evaluations that may reflect social desirability concerns absent at the point of purchase.

 

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Environmental Policies and Productivity Growth: Evidence across Industries and Firms

Silvia Albrizio, Tomasz Koźluk & Vera Zipperer

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

This paper investigates the impact of changes in environmental policy stringency on industry- and firm-level productivity growth in a panel of OECD countries. To test the strong version of the Porter Hypothesis (PH), we extend a neo-Schumpeterian productivity model to allow for effects of environmental policies. We use a new environmental policy stringency (EPS) index and let the effect of countries' environmental policies vary with the pollution intensity of the industry and with the countries’ and firms’ technological advancement. A tightening of environmental policy is associated with a short-term increase in industry-level productivity growth in the most technologically-advanced countries. This effect diminishes with the distance to the global productivity frontier, eventually becoming insignificant. For the average firm, no evidence of PH is found. However, the most productive firms see a temporary boost in productivity growth, while the less productive ones experience a productivity slowdown.

 

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Are price strategies effective in managing demand of high residential water users?

Serhat Asci, Tatiana Borisova & Michael Dukes

Applied Economics, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Encouraging water use efficiency and water conservation is one of the primary goals of water utility companies nationwide. This study estimates price elasticity of residential water demand to measure the responsiveness of water use to price changes, particularly for high water users. Household-level water use data for high residential water users from Central Florida were analysed using 3-stage least square (3SLS). Estimated price elasticity ranges between −0.07 and −0.14. This price elasticity estimate is below most of the estimates reported in the literature (in absolute value). The results imply that for price strategies to be effective in managing water demand of high residential water users, a significant price increase would be needed. Overall, this study highlights the importance of designing water conservation policies tailored to specific groups of customers, and the importance of using these strategies effectively and fairly for different customer groups.

 

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Inequality Before Birth: The Developmental Consequences of Environmental Toxicants

Claudia Persico, David Figlio & Jeffrey Roth

NBER Working Paper, May 2016

 

Abstract:

Millions of tons of hazardous wastes have been produced in the United States in the last 60 years which have been dispersed into the air, into water, and on and under the ground. Using new population-level data that follows cohorts of children born in the state of Florida between 1994 and 2002, this paper examines the short and long-term effects of prenatal exposure to environmental toxicants on children living within two miles of a Superfund site, toxic waste sites identified by the Environmental Protection Agency as being particularly severe. We compare siblings living within two miles from a Superfund site at birth where at least one sibling was conceived before or during cleanup of the site, and the other(s) was conceived after the site cleanup was completed using a family fixed effects model. Children conceived to mothers living within 2 miles of a Superfund site before it was cleaned are 7.4 percentage points more likely to repeat a grade, have 0.06 of a standard deviation lower test scores, and are 6.6 percentage points more likely to be suspended from school than their siblings who were conceived after the site was cleaned. Children conceived to mothers living within one mile of a Superfund site before it was cleaned are 10 percentage points more likely to be diagnosed with a cognitive disability than their later born siblings as well. These results tend to be larger and are more statistically significant than the estimated effects of proximity to a Superfund site on birth outcomes. This study suggests that the cleanup of severe toxic waste sites has significant positive effects on a variety of long-term cognitive and developmental outcomes for children.

 

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Groundwater methane in relation to oil and gas development and shallow coal seams in the Denver-Julesburg Basin of Colorado

Owen Sherwood et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 26 July 2016, Pages 8391–8396

 

Abstract:

Unconventional oil and gas development has generated intense public concerns about potential impacts to groundwater quality. Specific pathways of contamination have been identified; however, overall rates of contamination remain ambiguous. We used an archive of geochemical data collected from 1988 to 2014 to determine the sources and occurrence of groundwater methane in the Denver-Julesburg Basin of northeastern Colorado. This 60,000-km2 region has a 60-y-long history of hydraulic fracturing, with horizontal drilling and high-volume hydraulic fracturing beginning in 2010. Of 924 sampled water wells in the basin, dissolved methane was detected in 593 wells at depths of 20–190 m. Based on carbon and hydrogen stable isotopes and gas molecular ratios, most of this methane was microbially generated, likely within shallow coal seams. A total of 42 water wells contained thermogenic stray gas originating from underlying oil and gas producing formations. Inadequate surface casing and leaks in production casing and wellhead seals in older, vertical oil and gas wells were identified as stray gas migration pathways. The rate of oil and gas wellbore failure was estimated as 0.06% of the 54,000 oil and gas wells in the basin (lower estimate) to 0.15% of the 20,700 wells in the area where stray gas contamination occurred (upper estimate) and has remained steady at about two cases per year since 2001. These results show that wellbore barrier failure, not high-volume hydraulic fracturing in horizontal wells, is the main cause of thermogenic stray gas migration in this oil- and gas-producing basin.

 

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An Analysis of Costs and Health Co-Benefits for a U.S. Power Plant Carbon Standard

Jonathan Buonocore et al.

PLoS ONE, June 2016

 

Abstract:

Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from power plants can have important “co-benefits” for public health by reducing emissions of air pollutants. Here, we examine the costs and health co-benefits, in monetary terms, for a policy that resembles the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan. We then examine the spatial distribution of the co-benefits and costs, and the implications of a range of cost assumptions in the implementation year of 2020. Nationwide, the total health co-benefits were $29 billion 2010 USD (95% CI: $2.3 to $68 billion), and net co-benefits under our central cost case were $12 billion (95% CI: -$15 billion to $51 billion). Net co-benefits for this case in the implementation year were positive in 10 of the 14 regions studied. The results for our central case suggest that all but one region should experience positive net benefits within 5 years after implementation.

 

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The Recycled Self: Consumers’ Disposal Decisions of Identity-Linked Products

Remi Trudel, Jennifer Argo & Matthew Meng

Journal of Consumer Research, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

It has been known for some time that consumers’ identities influence purchasing decisions and people form strong identity connections, or “links,” with products and brands. However, research has yet to determine whether identity-linked products are differentially treated at disposal in comparison to products that are not identity linked. Across seven studies, the current research shows that when an everyday product (e.g., paper, cups, aluminum cans) is linked to a consumer’s identity, it is less likely to be trashed and more likely to be recycled. Further, the tendency to recycle an identity-linked product increases with the strength and positivity of the connection between the consumer and product (or brand). Finally, the disposal behavior can be explained by consumers’ motivation to avoid trashing a product that is linked to the self because it is viewed as an identity threat. In sum, consumers will be more likely to recycle (rather than trash) a product if the product is linked to a consumer’s identity. This occurs because placing an identity-linked product in the trash is symbolically similar to trashing a part of the self, a situation consumers are motivated to avoid.

 

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Environmental Impacts of the U.S. Health Care System and Effects on Public Health

Matthew Eckelman & Jodi Sherman

PLoS ONE, June 2016

 

Abstract:

The U.S. health care sector is highly interconnected with industrial activities that emit much of the nation’s pollution to air, water, and soils. We estimate emissions directly and indirectly attributable to the health care sector, and potential harmful effects on public health. Negative environmental and public health outcomes were estimated through economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIOLCA) modeling using National Health Expenditures (NHE) for the decade 2003–2013 and compared to national totals. In 2013, the health care sector was also responsible for significant fractions of national air pollution emissions and impacts, including acid rain (12%), greenhouse gas emissions (10%), smog formation (10%) criteria air pollutants (9%), stratospheric ozone depletion (1%), and carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic air toxics (1–2%). The largest contributors to impacts are discussed from both the supply side (EIOLCA economic sectors) and demand side (NHE categories), as are trends over the study period. Health damages from these pollutants are estimated at 470,000 DALYs lost from pollution-related disease, or 405,000 DALYs when adjusted for recent shifts in power generation sector emissions. These indirect health burdens are commensurate with the 44,000–98,000 people who die in hospitals each year in the U.S. as a result of preventable medical errors, but are currently not attributed to our health system. Concerted efforts to improve environmental performance of health care could reduce expenditures directly through waste reduction and energy savings, and indirectly through reducing pollution burden on public health, and ought to be included in efforts to improve health care quality and safety.

 

By KEVIN LEWIS | 09:00:00 AM

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

For the long haul

Diverging Patterns of Union Transition Among Cohabitors by Race/Ethnicity and Education: Trends and Marital Intentions in the United States

Janet Chen-Lan Kuo & Kelly Raley

Demography, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

The rise of cohabitation in family process among American young adults and declining rates of marriage among cohabitors are considered by some scholars as evidence for the importance of society-wide ideational shifts propelling recent changes in family. With data on two cohabiting cohorts from the NSFG 1995 and 2006–2010, the current study finds that marriage rates among cohabitors have declined steeply among those with no college degree, resulting in growing educational disparities over time. Moreover, there are no differences in marital intentions by education (or race/ethnicity) among recent cohabitors. We discuss how findings of this study speak to the changes in the dynamics of social stratification system in the United States and suggest that institutional and material constraints are at least as important as ideational accounts in understanding family change and family behavior of contemporary young adults.

 

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Is Marriage a Buzzkill? A Twin Study of Marital Status and Alcohol Consumption

Diana Dinescu et al.

Journal of Family Psychology, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Married adults have consistently been found to drink less than their single or divorced counterparts. This correlation may not be causal, however, as people nonrandomly “select” into marriage and into alcohol use. The current study uses a sample of 2,425 same-sex twin pairs (1,703 MZ; 722 DZ) to control for genetic and shared environmental selection, thereby eliminating a great many third variable, alternative explanations to the hypothesis that marriage causes less drinking. Married twins were compared with their single, divorced, and cohabiting cotwins on drinking frequency and quantity. Married cotwins consumed fewer alcoholic beverages than their single or divorced cotwins, and drank less frequently than their single cotwins. Alcohol use patterns did not differ among married and cohabiting twins. These findings provide strong evidence that intimate relationships cause a decline in alcohol consumption.

 

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Anticipating the “Ball and Chain”? Reciprocal Associations Between Marital Expectations and Delinquency

Rachel Arocho & Claire Kamp Dush

Journal of Marriage and Family, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Marriage has been identified as a mechanism that may explain decreased delinquency among young adults, but whereas marriage is increasingly delayed, crime continues to decrease across the transition to adulthood. Most adolescents and young adults expect to marry one day, and these expectations may suppress delinquency. Conversely, increased delinquency may also predict decreased marital expectations. Longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort (N = 7,057), a sample of youth who were aged 12 to 17 years in 1997, were used to examine the reciprocal association between an expressed expectation to marry soon and participation in delinquent behavior. Results from an autoregressive cross-lagged structural equation model suggested that greater expectations to marry were significantly associated with less delinquent activity 1 year later. Greater delinquent activity was not significantly associated with subsequent marital expectations. Youth with the greatest expectations to marry may temper their behavior even before vows are taken.

 

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Perceiving Partners to Endorse Benevolent Sexism Attenuates Highly Anxious Women’s Negative Reactions to Conflict

Emily Cross, Nickola Overall & Matthew Hammond

Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, July 2016, Pages 923-940

 

Abstract:

Benevolent sexism prescribes that men are dependent on women in relationships and should cherish their partners. The current research examined whether perceiving male partners to endorse benevolent sexism attenuates highly anxious women’s negative reactions to relationship conflict. Greater attachment anxiety was associated with greater distress and insecurity during couples’ conflict discussions (Study 1), during daily conflict with intimate partners (Study 2), and when recalling experiences of relationship conflict (Study 3). However, this heightened distress and insecurity was attenuated when women (but not men) perceived their partner to strongly endorse benevolent sexism (Studies 1-3) and thus believed their partner could be relied upon to remain invested (Study 3B). These novel results illustrate that perceiving partners to endorse benevolent sexism alleviates anxious women’s insecure reactions to relationship threat by conveying partner’s continued reliability. Implications of these security-enhancing effects are considered in light of the role benevolent sexism plays in sustaining gender inequality.

 

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The Putative Chemosignal Androstadienone Makes Women More Generous

Valentina Perrotta et al.

Journal of Neuroscience, Psychology, and Economics, June 2016, Pages 89-99

 

Abstract:

Putative human chemosignals have been shown to influence mood states and emotional processing, but the connection between these effects and higher order cognitive processing is not well established. This study utilized an economic game (Dictator Game) to test whether androstadienone (AND), an odorous compound derived from testosterone, impacts on altruistic behavior. We predicted that the female participants would act more generously in the AND condition, exhibiting a significant interaction effect between gender and AND on Dictator Game contributions. We also expected that the presence of AND should increase the positive mood of the female participants, compared with a control odor condition and also compared with the mood of the male participants. The results confirm our hypotheses: For women, the subliminal perception of AND led to larger monetary donations, compared with a control odor, and also increased positive mood. These effects were absent or significantly weaker in men. Our findings highlight the capacity of human putative chemosignals to influence emotions and higher cognitive processes — in particular, the processes used in the context of economic decisions — in a gender-specific way.

 

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Mothers and Fathers Perform More Mate Retention Behaviors than Individuals without Children

Nicole Barbaro, Todd Shackelford & Viviana Weekes-Shackelford

Human Nature, September 2016, Pages 316-333

 

Abstract:

Human life history is unique among primates, most notably the extraordinary length of infant dependency and the formation of long-term pair-bonds. Men and women are motivated to remain pair-bonded to maintain the distribution of male-provisioned resources to a woman and her offspring, or to protect offspring from infanticide. Men and women can employ several strategies to retain their mate and prevent their partner from defecting from the relationship, including individual mate retention (behaviors performed alone) and coalitional mate retention (behaviors performed by a close ally). The current research investigates whether men and women with children perform more frequent mate retention behaviors than men and women without children. Participants (n = 1003) currently in a heterosexual romantic relationship completed a survey, reporting whether they had genetic children with their current romantic partner and how frequently they performed various mate retention behaviors. The results indicate that men (n = 262) and women (n = 234) who share genetic children with their current partner performed more frequent individual mate retention behaviors and requested more frequent coalitional mate retention behaviors than men (n = 280) and women (n = 227) who do not share genetic children with their current partner. The results are interpreted as they relate to hypotheses concerning the evolution of pair-bonding in humans, and mate retention behaviors more generally. Limitations of the current research are discussed, and profitable avenues for future research in this domain are suggested.

 

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Associations Between Prior Deployments and Marital Satisfaction Among Army Couples

Benjamin Karney & Thomas Trail

Journal of Marriage and Family, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Although the experience of deployments has been described as devastating to married life, evidence linking deployments directly to poorer marital functioning has been sparse. The analyses described in this article compare associations between prior deployments and current marital satisfaction across four different ways of measuring prior deployment within a large and representative sample of married Army service members and their spouses. Results indicate that the experience of prior deployments is associated with significantly lower current marital satisfaction among military couples. The association is disproportionately strong for first deployments and first cumulative months of deployment and weakens over subsequent deployment experiences. Most of these associations, but not all, can be accounted for by the fact that service members who have been deployed are more likely to have experienced traumatic events and to experience posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms, both of which are independently associated with lower levels of marital satisfaction.

 

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The Consequences of Suppressing Affective Displays in Romantic Relationships: A Challenge and Threat Perspective

Brett Peters & Jeremy Jamieson

Emotion, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Emotion suppression is one of the most studied topics in emotion regulation. However, little is known about how response-focused regulation strategies unfold in romantic relationships from the perspectives of both emotion regulators and their interaction partners. Using the biopsychosocial (BPS) model of challenge and threat as an organizing framework, 2 experiments examined effects of expressive suppression (vs. expression) on affective, cognitive, physiological, and behavioral processes in regulators and their romantic partners. In Experiment 1 a crowd-sourced sample of individuals currently in a romantic relationship simulated scenarios in which the self or partner engaged in response-focused emotion regulation (expression or suppression of affective displays). Suppressors expected worse outcomes compared with expressers. However, individuals on the receiving end of suppression (suppression targets) did not differ from expression targets. Experiment 2 then examined romantic couples’ responses to suppression/expression in vivo. Regulators were randomly assigned to suppress/express affective displays and partners (targets) were unaware of the manipulation. Suppressors and suppression targets exhibited more malignant physiological responses (increased vascular resistance and elevated cortisol reactivity) during an emotional conversation and reduced intimacy behavior as measured with a novel touch task. Consequences for relationship processes are discussed.

 

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Perceived Spousal Religiosity and Marital Quality Across Racial and Ethnic Groups

Samuel Perry

Family Relations, April 2016, Pages 327–341

 

Abstract:

The relationship between the perceived religiosity of one's spouse and marital quality varies across racial and ethnic groups (i.e., Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic Whites) in the United States. In this study, data were drawn from a nationally representative sample of married Americans (N = 1,162). Although perceived spousal religiosity predicted higher marital quality across all racial and ethnic groups, this effect was stronger for Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics than for Whites. Compared to Whites, the 3 racial and ethnic minority groups experienced a larger boost in frequency of expressive forms of love as perceived spousal religiosity increased. This effect was also found regarding marital satisfaction for Asians and Blacks relative to Whites, but not for Hispanics. Moreover, although racial and ethnic minorities tended to report lower marital quality than Whites at low levels of perceived spousal religiosity, their marital quality tended to be higher than Whites at high levels of perceived spousal religiosity. Three-way interactions indicated that these trends hold regardless of gender.

 

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Intimately Connected: The Importance of Partner Responsiveness for Experiencing Sexual Desire

Gurit Birnbaum et al.

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Sexual desire tends to subside gradually over time, with many couples failing to maintain desire in their long-term relationships. Three studies employed complementary methodologies to examine whether partner responsiveness, an intimacy-building behavior, could instill desire for one’s partner. In Study 1, participants were led to believe that they would interact online with their partner. In reality, they interacted with either a responsive or an unresponsive confederate. In Study 2, participants interacted face-to-face with their partner, and judges coded their displays of responsiveness and sexual desire. Study 3 used a daily experiences methodology to examine the mechanisms underlying the responsiveness–desire linkage. Overall, responsiveness was associated with increased desire, but more strongly in women. Feeling special and perceived partner mate value explained the responsiveness–desire link, suggesting that responsive partners were seen as making one feel valued as well as better potential mates for anyone and thus as more sexually desirable.

 

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Shifting expectations of partners' responsiveness changes outcomes of conflict discussions

Denise Marigold & Joanna Anderson

Personal Relationships, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Expecting responsiveness from a partner may increase the chance of successful conflict resolution through a self-fulfilling prophecy. Such expectations derive in part from people's history of receiving responsiveness and from their belief that their partner values them (S. L. Murray, J. G. Holmes, & N. L. Collins, 2006). This belief can be fostered by having individuals reframe a partner's compliment in an abstract way (D. C. Marigold, J. G. Holmes, & M. Ross, 2007). In this study, 96 dating couples were randomly assigned to complete a compliment reframing intervention (or not) prior to discussing a conflict. Without intervention, couples who typically had a lot of conflict reported less positive expectations of their partner for the upcoming discussion and subsequently worse outcomes than low-conflict couples; these differences were eliminated in the compliment reframing condition. This research demonstrates the importance of perceived value and expectations of responsiveness in shaping the outcomes of conflict discussions, suggesting additional points of intervention beyond communication skills for high-conflict couples.

 

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Power and the pursuit of a partner’s goals

Kristin Laurin et al.

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, June 2016, Pages 840-868

 

Abstract:

We investigated how power dynamics in close relationships influence the tendency to devote resources to the pursuit of goals valued by relationship partners, hypothesizing that low (vs. high) power in relationships would lead individuals to center their individual goal pursuit around the goals of their partners. We study 2 related phenomena: partner goal prioritization, whereby individuals pursue goals on behalf of their partners, and partner goal contagion, whereby individuals identify and adopt as their own the goals that their partner pursues. We tested our ideas in 5 studies that employed diverse research methods, including lab experiments and dyadic studies of romantic partners, and multiple types of dependent measures, including experience sampling reports, self-reported goal commitment, and behavioral goal pursuit in a variety of goal domains. Despite this methodological diversity, the studies provided clear and consistent evidence that individuals with low power in their relationships are especially likely to engage in both partner goal prioritization and partner goal contagion.

 

By KEVIN LEWIS | 09:00:00 AM

Monday, July 25, 2016

Red alert

Bombing the Way to State-Building? Lessons from the Vietnam War

Melissa Dell & Pablo Querubin

Harvard Working Paper, May 2016

 

Abstract:

This study uses discontinuities in U.S. strategies employed during the Vietnam War to estimate their causal impacts on security, governance, civic society, and economic outcomes. It identifies the impacts of bombing civilian population centers in South Vietnam by exploiting discontinuities in an algorithm used to target air strikes. Hamlets just barely below the algorithm's rounding thresholds were significantly more likely to be bombed than hamlets just above but were identical beforehand. Estimates document that the bombing of civilian population centers increased the military and political activities of the communist insurgency, weakened local governance, and reduced non-communist civic engagement. The study also exploits a spatial discontinuity across neighboring military corps regions, one commanded for idiosyncratic historical reasons by the U.S. Marines and the other by the U.S. Army. The Marines emphasized a bottom-up hearts and minds approach, whereas Army strategy emphasized search and destroy raids. The Marines' hearts and minds approach plausibly increased access to health care and primary school completion rates, reduced insurgent attacks, and improved attitudes towards the U.S. and the South Vietnamese government, relative to the Army's search and destroy approach.

 

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From Isolation to Radicalization: The Socioeconomic Predictors of Support for ISIS in the West

Tamar Mitts

Columbia University Working Paper, June 2016

 

Abstract:

The steady stream of foreign fighters from Western countries to join the Islamic State has gripped the attention of scholars and policymakers around the world. In this paper, I provide the first systematic micro-level study of the socioeconomic predictors of online radicalization and support for ISIS in Europe. I argue that lack of integration in Western countries, coupled with anti-Muslim discrimination and hostility, drives individuals to support ISIS on social media. From December 2015 to May 2016, I collected real-time data on the activity of thousands of ISIS activists and the full social network of their followers on Twitter, a central platform for the organization's recruitment efforts. I captured and analyzed the online activity and textual content produced by ISIS supporters before their accounts were deleted from the Internet. Using data on the geographic location of ISIS supporters, I matched online radicalization indicators with offline data on voteshare for far-right, anti-Muslim parties in Europe to examine whether the intensity of anti-Muslim hostility at the local level predicts support for ISIS on Twitter. Results show that local-level support for far-right parties is a significant and substantively meaningful determinant of pro-ISIS radicalization online, including posting tweets sympathizing with ISIS, describing life in ISIS-controlled territories, discussing foreign fighters, and expressing anti-West sentiment. An event study of the marches organized by the anti-Muslim movement PEGIDA in 2016 suggests that the results are not entirely driven by reverse causality. Of particular relevance to the current debate over refugee policy, I also find that the number of foreigners or asylum seekers in a locality are not significant predictors of radicalization.

 

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Drone Strikes Reduce Insurgent Violence: Evidence from Pakistan

Asfandyar Ali Mir & Dylan Moore

University of Chicago Working Paper, December 2015

 

Abstract:

We investigate the consequences of drone strikes for insurgent violence in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) region. Employing a difference-in-differences design combined with an event-study, we document a negative statistical association between the introduction of the US drone policy and insurgent violence in the North Waziristan Agency. The policy was associated with a reduction of 4-11 insurgent attacks per month and 27-63 casualties per month. These are very large effect sizes given that in the year before the policy was implemented the region experienced around 12 attacks per month, resulting in around 55 casualties per month. We offer a theory on coercion by drones, and argue that this drop in insurgent violence is best explained by the non-kinetic effects whereby the fear of drone strikes among insurgents leads to organizational changes that limit their ability to undertake violence.

 

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Maritime Hegemony and the Fiction of the Free Sea: Explaining States' Claims to Maritime Jurisdiction

Rachel Esplin Odell

MIT Working Paper, June 2016

 

Abstract:

Why do states claim limited, moderate, or expansive jurisdiction over the waters adjacent to their coasts? I argue that because of the unique role of the maritime hegemon in shaping the law of the sea to conform to its interests, the primary variable determining a state's positions on coastal state jurisdiction is the nature of its relationship to the maritime hegemon - allied, adversarial, or neutral. Other variables that exert important influence on the state's claim include its perceptions of threat from regional maritime powers and its own capability to project power to other states' coasts. This theory not only enables deductive prediction of states' maritime jurisdictional claims, but also provides insights into the process of hegemonic order-building in international relations. After developing this theory, I test it with initial plausibility probes, including an analysis of the contemporary maritime claims of the United States as the maritime hegemon, as well as two controlled comparisons of the current maritime claims of Japan and China, ally and adversary of the United States, and Chile and Peru, states with neutral relationships to the maritime hegemon. The theory's explanatory variables accurately correlate with the outcomes in these studies, with the United States claiming limited jurisdiction over the activities of foreign militaries in its exclusive economic zone, Japan and Chile claiming limited jurisdiction (with caveats), China claiming moderate jurisdiction, and Peru claiming expansive jurisdiction.

 

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Pugnacious Presidents: Democratic Constitutional Systems and International Conflict

Matthew Kroenig & Madison Schramm

Georgetown University Working Paper, July 2016

 

Abstract:

How do domestic political institutions affect international conflict? Democratic peace theorists argue that jointly-democratic dyads are less likely to engage in war than other types of states, but these explanations cannot account for the large number of militarized conflicts that fall short of full-scale war among democratic states. We hypothesize that presidential democracies place fewer constraints on the executive's ability to use force and are, therefore, more likely to engage in international conflict than other types of democratic states. Using standard international relations datasets on conflict, we demonstrate that jointly-presidential democratic dyads are over two times more likely to become involved in militarized interstate disputes than other jointly-democratic dyads. Moreover, we find that when it comes to lower-level conflicts, jointly-presidential dyads are statistically indistinguishable from nondemocratic dyads. These results have important implications for our understanding of democratic peace theory and the causes of international conflict.

 

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My Brother's Keeper? Religious Cues and Support for Foreign Military Intervention

Joshua Su-Ya Wu & Austin Knuppe

Politics and Religion, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Americans are reluctant to support foreign military intervention. However, if victims of violence are identified as Christians, support for intervention is higher. We term this a "Brother's Keeper" effect as Americans, especially more religious Americans, will support intervention that aids co-religionists. To test our argument, we use a survey experiment that randomly assigns respondents to varying accounts of violence in the Central African Republic. Respondents who read Christians are the victims of violence are more supportive of military intervention compared to respondents who read vignettes that do not identify the religious identities of victims. Moreover, these Brother's Keeper effects are stronger among more religious respondents. We also find even stronger effects when extrapolating results as a population effect with survey weights. Our findings reveal that labeling otherwise unknown foreign actors as Christian have significant effects on support for foreign military intervention.

 

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Beheading the Hydra: Counterinsurgent violence and insurgent attacks in Iraq

Joshua Eastin & Emily Kalah Gade

Terrorism and Political Violence, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

We evaluate the effectiveness of anti-insurgent violence as a means to suppress insurgency with micro-level data from the Iraq War. Our findings suggest that while violence against insurgents increases the incidence of future insurgent attacks, the intensity of this violence can significantly influence the outcome. Rather than shifting monotonically, the effect is actually curvilinear, first rising, and then contracting. We argue that at low to moderate levels, violence against insurgents creates opportunities for these groups to signal strength and resolve, which enables them to build momentum, heighten civilian cooperation, and diminish political support for counterinsurgency efforts in these forces' home countries. The result is an escalation in insurgent attacks. However, at higher levels, this effect should plateau and taper off as insurgent attrition rises, and as civilian fears over personal safety displace grievances that might otherwise provoke counter-mobilization. Our empirical tests on data from the Iraq War, 2004-2009, demonstrate robust support for this argument.

 

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The Language of Compromise in International Agreements

Katerina Linos & Tom Pegram

International Organization, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

To reach agreement, international negotiators often compromise by using flexible language: they make controversial provisions vague, or add options and caveats. Does flexibility in agreement language influence subsequent state behavior? If so, do states follow both firm and flexible language somewhat, as negotiators hope? Or do governments respond strategically, increasing their energies on firmly specified tasks, and reducing their efforts on flexibly specified ones? Testing theories about agreement language is difficult because states often reserve flexible language for controversial provisions. To make causal claims, we study an unusually drafted agreement in which states had almost no opportunity to dilute agreement language. We examine the influence of the 1991 Paris Principles on the Design of National Human Rights Institutions (NHRIs), using an original data set of twenty-two institutional safeguards of NHRIs in 107 countries, and case studies. We find that variations in agreement language can have large effects on state behavior, even when the entire agreement is nonbinding. Both democracies and authoritarian states followed the principles' firm terms closely. However, authoritarian states either ignored or reduced their efforts on flexibly specified tasks. If flexibly specifying a task is no different from omitting it altogether, as our data suggest, the costs of compromise are much greater than previously believed.

 

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Can the International Criminal Court Deter Atrocity?

Hyeran Jo & Beth Simmons

International Organization, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Whether and how violence can be controlled to spare innocent lives is a central issue in international relations. The most ambitious effort to date has been the International Criminal Court (ICC), designed to enhance security and safety by preventing egregious human rights abuses and deterring international crimes. We offer the first systematic assessment of the ICC's deterrent effects for both state and nonstate actors. Although no institution can deter all actors, the ICC can deter some governments and those rebel groups that seek legitimacy. We find support for this conditional impact of the ICC cross-nationally. Our work has implications for the study of international relations and institutions, and supports the violence-reducing role of pursuing justice in international affairs.

 

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Physical cryptographic verification of nuclear warheads

Scott Kemp et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

How does one prove a claim about a highly sensitive object such as a nuclear weapon without revealing information about the object? This paradox has challenged nuclear arms control for more than five decades. We present a mechanism in the form of an interactive proof system that can validate the structure and composition of an object, such as a nuclear warhead, to arbitrary precision without revealing either its structure or composition. We introduce a tomographic method that simultaneously resolves both the geometric and isotopic makeup of an object. We also introduce a method of protecting information using a provably secure cryptographic hash that does not rely on electronics or software. These techniques, when combined with a suitable protocol, constitute an interactive proof system that could reject hoax items and clear authentic warheads with excellent sensitivity in reasonably short measurement times.

 

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Taking versus taxing: An analysis of conscription in a private information economy

Thomas Koch & Javier Birchenall

Public Choice, June 2016, Pages 177-199

 

Abstract:

Most countries currently man their militaries through conscription (i.e., a draft). Conventional wisdom suggests that, by lowering the budgetary cost of the military, a draft reduces distortionary taxation, especially when military needs are large. We find that this intuition is misguided. When income taxes are set optimally, voluntary enlistments lead to less distortionary taxation than a draft, because the tax base left behind by a volunteer army tends to be more productive than that after a draft. For reasonable parameter values, drafts are more distortionary (and less socially desirable) when military needs are large.

 

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Status Competition and Territorial Aggression: Evidence from the Scramble for Africa

Joslyn Barnhart

Security Studies, Summer 2016, Pages 385-419

 

Abstract:

When are states willing to engage in behaviors of little material or strategic value in order to assert their status? This article demonstrates that states are more likely to engage in acts of status assertion if their international standing has been called into question. Such status-challenged states seek opportunities to demonstrate their capabilities as well as their intention to maintain their current status. Status assertions often challenge the status and security of other states, leading these states to engage in more frequent acts of aggression. Evidence for these claims comes from detailed analysis of the Scramble for Africa at the end of the nineteenth century. France and Germany adopted expansionary policies in Africa because their great power status had been called into question. These policy shifts directly led Italy and Britain to adopt expansionary policies, leading to the eventual conquest of 95 percent of the African continent.

 

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Reducing risks in wartime through capital-labor substitution: Evidence from World War II

Chris Rohlfs, Ryan Sullivan & Thomas Kniesner

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, April 2016, Pages 163-190

 

Abstract:

Our research uses data from multiple archival sources to examine substitution among armored (tank-intensive), infantry (troop-intensive), and airborne (also troop-intensive) military units, as well as mid-war reorganizations of each type, to estimate the marginal cost of reducing U.S. fatalities in World War II, holding constant mission effectiveness, usage intensity, and task difficulty. If the government acted as though it equated marginal benefits and costs, the marginal cost measures the implicit value placed on soldiers' lives. Our preferred estimates indicate that infantrymen's lives were valued in 2009 dollars between $0 and $0.5 million and armored troops' lives were valued between $2 million and $6 million, versus the efficient $1 million to $2 million 1940s-era private value of life. Reorganizations of the armored and airborne divisions both increased efficiency, one by reducing costs with little increase in fatalities and the other by reducing fatalities with little increase in costs.

 

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Moments in time: Temporal patterns in the effect of democracy and trade on conflict

Mark David Nieman

Conflict Management and Peace Science, July 2016, Pages 273-293

 

Abstract:

Building on economic norms theory, I argue that the causes of international conflict may be contextual rather than constant over time. I explore the temporal patterns in the predictors of conflict in data on European conflict between 1870 and 2001, using an endogenous Markov chain Monte Carlo Poisson change-point model. I find that the period can be divided into two time periods, different in terms of the direction of the effect of the main conflict predictors. While democracy has a positive effect on conflict in the period between 1870 and 1938, it has a negative effect from 1938 to 2001. Likewise, trade initially has no impact on conflict, but later exerts a pacifying effect. Post-estimation analyses suggest that such patterns are best explained by the externalization of contractual norms, which is consistent with economic norms theory.

 

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A Voice of Conscience: How Eleanor Roosevelt Helped to Popularize the Debate on Nuclear Fallout, 1950-1954

Dario Fazzi

Journal of American Studies, August 2016, Pages 699-730

 

Abstract:

This article looks at Eleanor Roosevelt's role within the intense debate on nuclear fallout as it developed in the US in the early 1950s. In particular, the article analyzes Mrs. Roosevelt's position on nuclear weapons, deterrence, and disarmament; her condemnation of nuclear testing; and her role as both a public intellectual and a mass educator who helped people to understand the real consequences of nuclear fallout. Here, Mrs. Roosevelt emerges as an active voice that, by defending freedom of speech, also contributed to popularizing the issue of nuclear fallout and making American citizens aware of the urgency of a ban on nuclear testing.

 

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Meaning threat can promote peaceful, not only military-based approaches to intergroup conflict: The moderating role of ingroup glorification

Daniel Rovenpor et al.

European Journal of Social Psychology, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Most research on threat documents its negative consequences. Similarly, most research on intergroup contexts has emphasized their negative behavioral effects. Drawing on the Meaning Maintenance Model and recent perspectives on the potential for positivity in intergroup conflict, we predicted that meaning threat can produce both antisocial and prosocial responses to intergroup conflict, depending on people's preexisting meaning frameworks. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrated that under meaning threat, low ingroup glorifiers strengthened their support for peaceful conflict resolution, whereas high ingroup glorifiers strengthened their support for military-based conflict resolution. In the context of the Israel-Palestinian conflict, Study 3 found that low glorification was associated with greater support for peace during "hot" (but not "cold") conflict, because hot conflict reduced their meaning in life. These findings are consistent with the notion that when meaning is threatened, people affirm their preexisting values - whether pro-social or anti-social - even in the context of intergroup conflict.

 

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Kinds of Blue: Diversity in UN Peacekeeping Missions and Civilian Protection

Vincenzo Bove & Andrea Ruggeri

British Journal of Political Science, July 2016, Pages 681-700

 

Abstract:

For a given number of troops in a peace operation, is it advisable to have soldiers from a single country, or should the UN recruit peacekeepers from a variety of donor countries? Since 1990, the number of contributors to peace operations has grown threefold, and most operations have carried the mandate to protect civilians. This article explores the effect of diversity in the composition of a mission, measured by fractionalization and polarization indices, on its performance in protecting civilians in Africa in the period 1991-2008. It finds that mission diversity decreases the level of violence against civilians, a result that holds when geographic and linguistic distances between countries are considered.

 

By KEVIN LEWIS | 09:00:00 AM

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Bringing us together

The Surprising Effectiveness of Hostile Mediators

Ting Zhang, Francesca Gino & Michael Norton

Management Science, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Contrary to the tendency of mediators to defuse negative emotions between adversaries by treating them kindly, we demonstrate the surprising effectiveness of hostile mediators in resolving conflict. Hostile mediators generate greater willingness to reach agreements between adversaries (Experiment 1). Consequently, negotiators interacting with hostile mediators are better able to reach agreements in incentive-compatible negotiations than those interacting with nice mediators (Experiment 2). By serving as common enemies, hostile mediators cause adversaries in conflict to feel more connected and become more willing to reach agreement (Experiments 3 and 4). Finally, we manipulate the target of mediators’ hostility to document the moderating role of common enemies: mediators who directed their hostility toward both negotiators (bilateral hostility) — becoming a common enemy — increased willingness to reach agreement; those who directed hostility at just one negotiator (unilateral hostility) did not serve as common enemies, eliminating the hostile mediator effect (Experiment 5). We discuss theoretical and practical implications, and we suggest future directions.

 

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A recipe for friendship: Similar food consumption promotes trust and cooperation

Kaitlin Woolley & Ayelet Fishbach

Journal of Consumer Psychology, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

This research examines the consequences of incidental food consumption for trust and cooperation. We find that strangers who are assigned to eat similar (vs. dissimilar) foods are more trusting of each other in a trust game (Study 1). Food consumption further influences conflict resolution, with strangers who are assigned to eat similar foods cooperating more in a labor negotiation, and therefore earning more money (Study 2). The role of incidental food similarity on increased trust extends to the product domain. Consumers are more trusting of information about non-food products (e.g., a software product) when the advertiser in the product testimonial eats similar food to them (Study 3). Lastly, we find evidence that food serves as a particularly strong cue of trust compared with other incidental similarity. People perceive that pairs eating similar foods, but not pairs wearing similar colored shirts, are more trusting of one another (Study 4). We discuss theoretical and practical implications of this work for improving interactions between strangers, and for marketing products.

 

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In Small We Trust: Lay Theories About Small and Large Groups

Stephen La Macchia et al.

Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Day-to-day interactions often involve individuals interacting with groups, but little is known about the criteria that people use to decide which groups to approach or trust and which to avoid or distrust. Seven studies provide evidence for a “small = trustworthy” heuristic, such that people perceive numerically smaller groups as more benevolent in their character and intentions. As a result of this, individuals in trust-sensitive contexts are more likely to approach and engage with groups that are relatively small than those that are relatively large. We provide evidence for this notion across a range of contexts, including analyses of social categories (Studies 1 and 2), ad hoc collections of individuals (Study 3), interacting panels (Studies 4-6), and generalized, abstract judgments (Study 7). Findings suggest the existence of a general lay theory of group size that may influence how individuals interact with groups.

 

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Personality Similarity in Negotiations: Testing the Dyadic Effects of Similarity in Interpersonal Traits and the Use of Emotional Displays on Negotiation Outcomes

Kelly Schwind Wilson et al.

Journal of Applied Psychology, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

We build on the small but growing literature documenting personality influences on negotiation by examining how the joint disposition of both negotiators with respect to the interpersonal traits of agreeableness and extraversion influences important negotiation processes and outcomes. Building on similarity-attraction theory, we articulate and demonstrate how being similarly high or similarly low on agreeableness and extraversion leads dyad members to express more positive emotional displays during negotiation. Moreover, because of increased positive emotional displays, we show that dyads with such compositions also tend to reach agreements faster, perceive less relationship conflict, and have more positive impressions of their negotiation partner. Interestingly, these results hold regardless of whether negotiating dyads are similar in normatively positive (i.e., similarly agreeable and similarly extraverted) or normatively negative (i.e., similarly disagreeable and similarly introverted) ways. Overall, these findings demonstrate the importance of considering the dyad’s personality configuration when attempting to understand the affective experience as well as the downstream outcomes of a negotiation.

 

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Uncalculating cooperation is used to signal trustworthiness

Jillian Jordan et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Humans frequently cooperate without carefully weighing the costs and benefits. As a result, people may wind up cooperating when it is not worthwhile to do so. Why risk making costly mistakes? Here, we present experimental evidence that reputation concerns provide an answer: people cooperate in an uncalculating way to signal their trustworthiness to observers. We present two economic game experiments in which uncalculating versus calculating decision-making is operationalized by either a subject’s choice of whether to reveal the precise costs of cooperating (Exp. 1) or the time a subject spends considering these costs (Exp. 2). In both experiments, we find that participants are more likely to engage in uncalculating cooperation when their decision-making process is observable to others. Furthermore, we confirm that people who engage in uncalculating cooperation are perceived as, and actually are, more trustworthy than people who cooperate in a calculating way. Taken together, these data provide the first empirical evidence, to our knowledge, that uncalculating cooperation is used to signal trustworthiness, and is not merely an efficient decision-making strategy that reduces cognitive costs. Our results thus help to explain a range of puzzling behaviors, such as extreme altruism, the use of ethical principles, and romantic love.

 

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The Right Amount of Trust

Jeffrey Butler, Paola Giuliano & Luigi Guiso

Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

We investigate the relationship between individual trust and individual economic performance. We find that individual income is hump-shaped in a measure of intensity of trust beliefs. Our interpretation is that highly trusting individuals tend to assume too much social risk and to be cheated more often, ultimately performing less well than those with a belief close to the mean trustworthiness of the population. However, individuals with overly pessimistic beliefs avoid being cheated, but give up profitable opportunities, therefore underperforming. The cost of either too much or too little trust is comparable to the income lost by forgoing college. Our findings hold in large-scale international survey data, as well as inside a country with high-quality institutions, and are also supported by experimental findings.

 

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Camp stability predicts patterns of hunter–gatherer cooperation

Daniel Smith et al.

Royal Society Open Science, July 2016

 

Abstract:

Humans regularly cooperate with non-kin, which has been theorized to require reciprocity between repeatedly interacting and trusting individuals. However, the role of repeated interactions has not previously been demonstrated in explaining real-world patterns of hunter–gatherer cooperation. Here we explore cooperation among the Agta, a population of Filipino hunter–gatherers, using data from both actual resource transfers and two experimental games across multiple camps. Patterns of cooperation vary greatly between camps and depend on socio-ecological context. Stable camps (with fewer changes in membership over time) were associated with greater reciprocal sharing, indicating that an increased likelihood of future interactions facilitates reciprocity. This is the first study reporting an association between reciprocal cooperation and hunter–gatherer band stability. Under conditions of low camp stability individuals still acquire resources from others, but do so via demand sharing (taking from others), rather than based on reciprocal considerations. Hunter–gatherer cooperation may either be characterized as reciprocity or demand sharing depending on socio-ecological conditions.

 

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Age Grouping and Social Complexity

Pierre Lienard

Current Anthropology, June 2016, Pages S105–S117

 

Abstract:

In order to be sustainable, larger-scale social systems require containing nepotistic tendencies, which are potentially disruptive in multiple domains of social activities. Many formal institutions of our modern democratic states seem to facilitate such offsetting. The ethnographic records provide many examples of large tribes not relying on either formal institutional frameworks or strict hierarchies to articulate the diverging requirements of kin-group allegiance and broader social affiliations. How does greater social complexity emerge in such decentralized societies? Among the different informal solutions presented in the literature, we find an interesting one: age-set systems, which involve the grouping of coevals in cross-kin associations. An essential aspect of such systems is their ability to enable the swift neutralizing of the basic pull of nepotism without intensive investments in a formal institutional apparatus, as is observed in more complex and modern social systems. When great benefits can be obtained through social exchange in large cooperative networks, an age-based organization helps counter familistic preferences by creating new incentive structures.

 

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Assessing Emotional Vocalizations From Cultural In-Group and Out-Group Depends on Oxytocin

Carsten De Dreu, Mariska Kret & Disa Sauter

Social Psychological and Personality Science, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Group-living animals, humans included, produce vocalizations like screams, growls, laughs, and victory calls. Accurately decoding such emotional vocalizations serves both individual and group functioning, suggesting that (i) vocalizations from in-group members may be privileged, in terms of speed and accuracy of processing, and (ii) such processing may depend on evolutionary ancient neural circuitries that sustain and enable cooperation with and protection of the in-group against outside threat. Here, we examined this possibility and focused on the neuropeptide oxytocin. Dutch participants self-administered oxytocin or placebo (double-blind, placebo-controlled study design) and responded to emotional vocalizations produced by cultural in-group members (Native Dutch) and cultural out-group members (Namibian Himba). In-group vocalizations were recognized faster and more accurately than out-group vocalizations, and oxytocin enhanced accurate decoding of specific vocalizations from one’s cultural out-group — triumph and anger. We discuss possible explanations and suggest avenues for new research.

 

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Effects of Socioeconomic Status and Fairness on Salivary Cortisol

Jäschke Johannes Paul Michael et al.

Evolutionary Psychology, June 2016

 

Abstract:

Research on cooperation has contributed to a better understanding of the foundations of human social behavior. Most studies, however, have not considered fundamental social parameters such as an individual’s position in a social hierarchy. As a first step, this study investigates the modulating effects of socioeconomic status (SES) on behavior and the physiological stress response. Study participants (n = 83) played a cooperative game with computerized coplayers of four categories: similar or higher SES in combination with either high or low fairness in behavior (i.e., willingness to cooperate). All participants showed a significant increase in saliva cortisol after the game compared to a control group. Only when paired with higher SES coplayers, however, did participants show a significant subsequent decrease in cortisol concentrations. Participants’ behavior in response to a coplayer’s decisions was only affected by the degree of fairness, but not the SES, of respective coplayers. Physiologically, playing this cooperation game was a big challenge for participants as measured by salivary cortisol. Yet, the high recovery rate when playing with cooperative, higher status individuals showed the stress-protective effects of positive social interactions in the framework of social hierarchies.

 

By KEVIN LEWIS | 09:00:00 AM

Saturday, July 23, 2016

Acting on impulse

Sex, drugs, and ADHD: The effects of ADHD pharmacological treatment on teens' risky behaviors

Anna Chorniy & Leah Kitashima

Labour Economics, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

In the U.S., 8% of children are diagnosed with ADHD and 70% of those are taking medications, yet little evidence exists on the effects of ADHD treatment on children's outcomes. We use a panel of South Carolina Medicaid claims data to investigate the effects of ADHD drugs on the probability of risky sexual behavior outcomes (STDs and pregnancy), substance abuse disorders, and injuries. To overcome potential endogeneity, we instrument for treatment using physicians' preferences to prescribe medication. Our findings suggest that pharmacological treatment has substantial benefits. It reduces the probability of contracting an STD by 3.6 percentage points (5.8 percentage points if we include STD screening), reduces the probability of having a substance abuse disorder by 7.3 percentage points, reduces the probability of injuries by 2.3 percentage points per year, and associated with them Medicaid costs decrease by $88.4, or 0.054 of a standard deviation.

 

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Can't wait to celebrate: Holiday euphoria, impulsive behavior and time preference

Eyal Lahav, Tal Shavit & Uri Benzion

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

The pre-holiday effect is a well-documented phenomenon, especially for financial markets. The behavioral explanation for the pre-holiday effect is called "holiday euphoria." In the current paper, we examine how the holiday period influences the time preference of students, by comparing their subjective discount rate before and after the Passover holiday in Israel. Although there is considerable research on the pre-holiday effect and its influence on investors in the capital market, we are unaware of any prior research on the influence of the pre-holiday effect on time preference. Our results suggest that holiday euphoria induces impulsive behavior, making people more present-oriented (having a higher subjective discount rate) before the holiday. We also show how holiday euphoria affects people's immediate mood (feeling down in the present), and how it is affected by their level of pessimism.

 

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Revisiting the Effects of Anger on Risk-Taking: Empirical and Meta-Analytic Evidence for Differences Between Males and Females

Rebecca Ferrer et al.

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

That anger elicited in one situation can carry over to drive risky behavior in another situation has been described since the days of Aristotle. The present studies examine the mechanisms through which and the conditions under which such behavior occurs. Across three experiments, as well as a meta-analytic synthesis of the data, results reveal that incidental anger is significantly more likely to drive risky decision making among males than among females. Moreover, the experiments document that, under certain circumstances, such risk-taking pays off financially. Indeed, the present experiments demonstrate that, because the expected-value-maximizing strategy in these studies rewarded risk-taking, angry-male individuals earned more money than did both neutral-emotion males and angry females. In sum, these studies found evidence for robust disparities between males and females for anger-driven risk-taking. Importantly, although men did not experience more anger than women, they did show a heightened tendency to respond to anger with risk-taking.

 

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Becoming Stranger: When Future Selves Join the Out-Group

Bethany Burum, Daniel Gilbert & Timothy Wilson

Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

One of the most powerful rules of interpersonal behavior is that people are kinder to members of their in-groups than to members of their out-groups. Are people also kinder to their future selves when they expect them to remain members of their current in-groups rather than become members of their current out-groups? In 2 studies, participants in an emotionally charged debate expected either to remain on the same team or to join the opposing team when they returned the following week. Those who expected to join the opposing team were less willing to sacrifice for their future selves, leaving more of an unpleasant task for their future selves to finish and treating their future selves as unkindly as they treated a stranger. These results suggest that the rules that govern interpersonal behavior may also govern intertemporal behavior, and suggest new strategies to encourage prudent decisions.

 

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Does Self-Control Improve With Practice? Evidence From a Six-Week Training Program

Eleanor Miles et al.

Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

Can self-control be improved through practice? Several studies have found that repeated practice of tasks involving self-control improves performance on other tasks relevant to self-control. However, in many of these studies, improvements after training could be attributable to methodological factors (e.g., passive control conditions). Moreover, the extent to which the effects of training transfer to real-life settings is not yet clear. In the present research, participants (N = 174) completed a 6-week training program of either cognitive or behavioral self-control tasks. We then tested the effects of practice on a range of measures of self-control, including lab-based and real-world tasks. Training was compared with both active and no-contact control conditions. Despite high levels of adherence to the training tasks, there was no effect of training on any measure of self-control. Trained participants did not, for example, show reduced ego depletion effects, become better at overcoming their habits, or report exerting more self-control in everyday life. Moderation analyses found no evidence that training was effective only among particular groups of participants. Bayesian analyses suggested that the data were more consistent with a null effect of training on self-control than with previous estimates of the effect of practice. The implication is that training self-control through repeated practice does not result in generalized improvements in self-control.

 

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Fake feedback on pain tolerance impacts proactive versus reactive control strategies

Davide Rigoni et al.

Consciousness and Cognition, May 2016, Pages 366-373

 

Abstract:

It is well-known that beliefs about one's own ability to execute a task influence task performance. Here, we tested the hypothesis that beliefs about a specific self-control capacity, namely pain tolerance, modulate basic cognitive control processes. Participants received fake comparative social feedback that their ability to tolerate painful stimulations was either very poor or outstanding after which they performed an unrelated go/no-go task. Participants receiving low-tolerance feedback, relative to high-tolerance feedback, were less successful at inhibiting their responses and more influenced by previous trial conditions, as indicated by an increased slowdown following errors and more failed inhibitions following go-trials. These observations demonstrate a shift from a more proactive to a more reactive control mode. This study shows that providing feedback about one's own capacity to control impulsive reactions to painful stimulations directly influences low-level cognitive control dynamics.

 

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Buying to Blunt Negative Feelings: Materialistic Escape From the Self

Grant Donnelly et al.

Review of General Psychology, forthcoming

 

Abstract:

We propose that escape theory, which describes how individuals seek to free themselves from aversive states of self-awareness, helps explain key patterns of materialistic people's behavior. As predicted by escape theory, materialistic individuals may feel dissatisfied with their standard of living, cope with failed expectations and life stressors less effectively than others, suffer from aversive self-awareness, and experience negative emotions as a result. To cope with negative, self-directed emotions, materialistic people may enter a narrow, cognitively deconstructed mindset in order to temporarily blunt the capacity for self-reflection. Cognitive narrowing decreases inhibitions thereby engendering impulsivity, passivity, irrational thought, and disinhibited behaviors, including maladaptive consumption.

 

By KEVIN LEWIS | 09:00:00 AM

Friday, July 22, 2016

For richer, for poorer

Nonmarital First Births, Marriage, and Income Inequality

Andrew Cherlin, David Ribar & Suzumi Yasutake

American Sociological Review, forthcoming

Abstract:
Many aggregate-level studies suggest a relationship between economic inequality and sociodemographic outcomes such as family formation, health, and mortality; individual-level evidence, however, is lacking. Nor is there satisfactory evidence on the mechanisms by which inequality may have an effect. We study the determinants of transitions to a nonmarital first birth as a single parent or as a cohabiting parent compared to transitions to marriage prior to a first birth among unmarried, childless young adults in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 cohort, from 1997 to 2011. We include measures of county-group-level household income inequality and the availability of jobs typically held by high school graduates that pay above-poverty wages (i.e., middle-skilled jobs). We find that greater income inequality is associated with a reduced likelihood of transitioning to marriage prior to a first birth for both women and men. The association between levels of inequality and transitions to marriage can be partially accounted for by the availability of middle-skilled jobs. Some models also suggest that greater income inequality is associated with a reduced likelihood of transitioning to a first birth while cohabiting.

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Do Rising Top Incomes Lead to Increased Borrowing in the Rest of the Distribution?

Jeffrey Thompson

Federal Reserve Working Paper, May 2016

Abstract:
One potential consequence of rising concentration of income at the top of the distribution is increased borrowing, as less affluent households attempt to maintain standards of living with less income. This paper explores the “keeping up with the Joneses” phenomenon using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. Specifically, it examines the responsiveness of payment-to-income ratios for different debt types at different parts of the income distribution to changes in the income thresholds at the 95th and 99th percentiles. The analysis provides some evidence indicating that household debt payments are responsive to rising top incomes. Middle and upper-middle income households take on more housing-related debt and have higher housing debt payment to income ratios in places with higher top income levels. Among households at the bottom of the income distribution there is a decline in non-mortgage borrowing and debt payments in areas with rising top-income levels, consistent with restrictions in the supply of credit. The analysis also consistently shows that 95th percentile income has a greater influence on borrowing and debt payment across in the rest of the distribution than the more affluent 99th percentile level.

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Negative emotions, income, and welfare: Causal estimates from the PSID

David Clingingsmith

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, October 2016, Pages 1–19

Abstract:
I use instrumental variables to estimate the causal effect of family income on the frequency with which individuals experience negative emotions. Doubling income reduces the experience of negative emotions by 0.26 SD on average. Percentage changes in income have a constant effect on negative emotion for family incomes below $80,000. Above $80,000, the effect of percentage changes declines, reaching zero at $200,000. A dollar change in family income has an eight times larger effect at the 20th percentile of income than the 80th percentile. Effects of income are similar on the high levels of negative emotion characteristic of mental illness, except there is no satiation.

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Genes, Education, and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study

Nicholas Papageorge & Kevin Thom

NYU Working Paper, June 2016

Abstract:
Recent advances in behavioral genetics allow us to overcome past limitations on the study of genes and human capital accumulation. We build on this progress to explore the relationship between observed genetic variants, educational attainment, and labor market outcomes in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We demonstrate that observed genetic variants, summarized as a genetic score variable, can explain 3.2-6.6 percent of the variation in educational attainment depending on the specification. Incorporating this genetic information into economic analysis using a rich longitudinal data set allows us to better understand the structure of ability endowments, including how they interact with childhood environments to predict a host of labor market outcomes. Understanding these interactions is particularly important for designing appropriate policies to reduce economic disparities. A recurring theme in our findings is that individuals who grew up in economically disadvantaged households face worse outcomes compared to individuals with the same genetic score, but from higher-SES households. This suggests the existence of unrealized human potential and also raises the possibility that human capital investments could lead to a more efficient use of human resources.

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Mergers and Acquisitions, Technological Change and Inequality

Wenting Ma, Paige Parker Ouimet & Elena Simintzi

University of North Carolina Working Paper, June 2016

Abstract:
This paper documents important shifts in the occupational composition of industries following high merger and acquisition (M&A) activity as well as accompanying increases in mean wages and wage inequality. We propose mergers and acquisitions act as a catalyst for skill-biased and routine-biased technological change (Autor, Levy, and Murnane, 2003). We argue that due to an increase in scale, improved efficiency or lower financial constraints, M&As facilitate technology adoption and automation, disproportionately increasing the productivity of high-skill workers and enabling the displacement of occupations involved in routine-tasks, typically mid-income occupations. An increase in M&A intensity of 10% is associated with a 33% reduction in industries’ routine share intensity and a ten percentage point increase in the share of high skill workers. These results have important implications on wage inequality: An increase in M&A activity by 10% is associated with a 25% increase in the mean industry wage and a 22% increase in industry wage polarization. We also show evidence that human capital complementary investments increase following M&As, while investments unrelated to human capital do not change. Our results are robust to instrumenting the M&A activity in a given industry with M&A activity in the corresponding customer/supplier industries and to controlling for industry shocks that may simultaneously lead to a merger wave and changes to labor and capital decisions.

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Class Bias in Voter Turnout, Representation, and Income Inequality

William Franko, Nathan Kelly & Christopher Witko

Perspectives on Politics, June 2016, Pages 351-368

Abstract:
The mass franchise led to more responsive government and a more equitable distribution of resources in the United States and other democracies. Recently in America, however, voter participation has been low and increasingly biased toward the wealthy. We investigate whether this electoral “class bias” shapes government ideology, the substance of economic policy, and distributional outcomes, thereby shedding light on both the old question of whether who votes matters and the newer question of how politics has contributed to growing income inequality. Because both lower and upper income groups try to use their resources to mobilize their supporters and demobilize their opponents, we argue that variation in class bias in turnout is a good indicator of the balance of power between upper and lower income groups. And because lower income voters favor more liberal governments and economic policies we expect that less class bias will be associated with these outcomes and a more equal income distribution. Our analysis of data from the U.S. states confirms that class bias matters for these outcomes.

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Subjective beliefs about the income distribution and preferences for redistribution

Lionel Page & Daniel Goldstein

Social Choice and Welfare, June 2016, Pages 25-61

Abstract:
We investigate whether beliefs about the income distribution are associated with political positions for or against redistribution. Using a novel elicitation method, we assess individuals’ beliefs about the shape of the income distribution in the United States. We find that respondents’ beliefs approximate the actual distribution on average. However they tend to overestimate the median income and underestimate the level of inequality. Surprisingly we find that beliefs about overall inequality, measured in terms of income dispersion, play only a marginal role in political positions as well as prospects of future wealth. Political preferences, however, are predicted by first, beliefs about the level of income of the poorest members of society, and second, a belief in an open society with equal opportunities for all. Support for redistribution is lower for people who give higher estimates of the income level of the poorest members of society and for people who perceive that opportunities for upward mobility are available.

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Lagged Associations of Metropolitan Statistical Area- and State-Level Income Inequality with Cognitive Function: The Health and Retirement Study

Daniel Kim et al.

PLoS ONE, June 2016

Methods: In a nationally-representative cohort of older Americans from the Health and Retirement Study, we examined state- and metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level income inequality as predictors of individual-level cognitive function measured by the 27-point Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS-m) scale. We modeled latency periods of 8–20 years, and controlled for state-/metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level and individual-level factors.

Results: Higher MSA-level income inequality predicted lower cognitive function 16–18 years later. Using a 16-year lag, living in a MSA in the highest income inequality quartile predicted a 0.9-point lower TICS-m score (β = -0.86; 95% CI = -1.41, -0.31), roughly equivalent to the magnitude associated with five years of aging. We observed no associations for state-level income inequality. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses using propensity score methods.

Conclusions: Among older Americans, MSA-level income inequality appears to influence cognitive function nearly two decades later. Policies reducing income inequality levels within cities may help address the growing burden of declining cognitive function among older populations within the United States.

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Growing Apart: The Changing Firm-Size Wage Effect and Its Inequality Consequences

Adam Cobb, Ken-Hou Lin & Paige Gabriel

University of Pennsylvania Working Paper, May 2016

Abstract:
Wage inequality in the United States has risen dramatically over the past several decades, prompting scholars to develop a number of theoretical accounts for the upward trend. This study takes an organizational approach to examine how changes in the firm-size wage effect (FSWE) — a phenomenon whereby otherwise similar workers earn more when employed by large firms — have affected the wage distribution in the U.S labor market. Using data from the Current Population Survey and Survey of Income and Program Participation, our findings reveal that in 1987, although all workers benefited from a firm-size wage premium, the premium was significantly higher for individuals at the bottom (e.g., 10th and 25th percentiles) and middle of the wage distribution (e.g., 50th percentile) compared to those at the top (90th percentile). Between 1987 and 2014, however, whereas the average FSWE declined markedly, the decline was exclusive to those at the bottom and middle of the wage distribution while there was no change for those at the top. As such, the uneven declines in the FSWE across the wage distribution explain between 20 and 30 percent of rising wage inequality during this period, suggesting firms are of great importance to the study of rising inequality.

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Endowment inequality in public goods games: A re-examination

Shaun Hargreaves Heap, Abhijit Ramalingam & Brock Stoddard

Economics Letters, forthcoming

Abstract:
We present a clean test of whether inequality in endowments affects contributions to a public good. It is a clean test because, to our knowledge, it is the first to control for possible endowment effects. We find that the key adverse effect of inequality arises because the rich reduce their contributions when there is inequality.

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Trickle-Down Preferences: Preferential Conformity to High Status Peers in Fashion Choices

Jeff Galak et al.

PLoS ONE, May 2016

Abstract:
How much do our choices represent stable inner preferences versus social conformity? We examine conformity and consistency in sartorial choices surrounding a common life event of new norm exposure: relocation. A large-scale dataset of individual purchases of women’s shoes (16,236 transactions) across five years and 2,007 women reveals a balance of conformity and consistency, moderated by changes in location socioeconomic status. Women conform to new local norms (i.e., average heel size) when moving to relatively higher status locations, but mostly ignore new local norms when moving to relatively lower status locations. In short, at periods of transition, it is the fashion norms of the rich that trickle down to consumers. These analyses provide the first naturalistic large-scale demonstration of the tension between psychological conformity and consistency, with real decisions in a highly visible context.

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The Z-Axis: Elevation Gradient Effects in Urban America

Victor Yifan Ye & Charles Becker

Duke University Working Paper, June 2016

Abstract:
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of hilliness effects in American urban communities. Using data from seventeen cities, robust relationships are established between elevation patterns and density and income gradients. We find that high-income households display strong preference for high-altitude, high-unevenness locations, leading to spatial income stratification at both the city and tract-level. We further analyze potential causes of this propensity: micro-climate, crime, congestion, view effects, and use of public transit. We conclude that the role of elevation in urban systems should not be neglected. Multi-dimensional spatial methods are crucial to investigations of cities with substantial unevenness. Redistributive social and economic policies must struggle with a fundamental, topographical dimension to inequality.

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Decomposing Global Inequality

Jørgen Modalsli

Review of Income and Wealth, forthcoming

Abstract:
This paper provides an intuitive additive decomposition of the global income Gini coefficient with respect to differences within and between countries. In 2005, nearly half the total global income inequality is due to income differences between Europeans and North Americans on the one side and inhabitants of Asia on the other, with the China-USA income differences alone accounting for six percent of global inequality. Historically, income differences between Asia and Europe have driven a large part of global inequality, but the quantitative importance of within-Asia income inequality has increased substantially since 1950.

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Inequality and Financial Fragility

Yuliyan Mitkov

Rutgers University Working Paper, March 2016

Abstract:
I study how the distribution of wealth influences the government’s response to a banking crisis and the fragility of the financial system. When the wealth distribution is unequal, the government’s bailout policy during a systemic crisis will be shaped in part by distributional concerns. In particular, government guarantees of deposits will tend to be credible for relatively poor investors, but may not be credible for wealthier investors. As a result, wealthier investors will have a stronger incentive to panic and, in equilibrium, the institutions in which they invest are more likely to experience a run and receive a bailout. Thus, without political frictions and under a government that is both benevolent and utilitarian, bailouts will tend to benefit wealthy investors at the expense of the general public. Rising inequality can strengthen this pattern. In some cases, more progressive taxation reduces financial fragility and can even raise equilibrium welfare for all agents.

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The Perverse Consequences of Policy Restrictions in the Presence of Asymmetric Information

Rafael Hortala-Vallve & Valentino Larcinese

Political Science Research and Methods, forthcoming

Abstract:
Institutions have the power to limit a government’s policy options. Policy restrictions are often used as solutions to coordination failures or time inconsistency problems. However, policy constraints can have significant drawbacks and these disadvantages have, to date, been overlooked in the literature. When institutional constraints tie a government’s hands, citizens will have less incentive to become informed about politics and participate in collective decision-making. This is because policy restrictions lower the private returns of political information. A fiscal policy restriction, for example, may decrease redistribution by lowering a poorer voters’ acquisition of political information. We illustrate our theoretical findings with numerical simulations and find that in one in three cases these policy restrictions make poorer voters worse off.

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Changing Roles of Ability and Education in U.S. Intergenerational Mobility

Jeremiah Richey & Alicia Rosburg

Economic Inquiry, forthcoming

Abstract:
Using data on young adults from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we investigate the changing roles of ability and education in the transmission of economic status across generations. We find that ability plays a substantially diminished role for the most recent cohort whereas education plays a much larger role. The first finding results primarily from a smaller effect of children's ability on status, the second from an increased correlation between parental status and educational attainment. A replication of the analysis by gender reveals that the changes in the role of ability are largely driven by men whereas the changes in education's role are largely driven by women.

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Preschoolers' Preference for Syntactic Complexity Varies by Socioeconomic Status

Kathleen Corriveau, Katelyn Kurkul & Sudha Arunachalam

Child Development, forthcoming

Abstract:
Two experiments investigated whether 4- and 5-year-old children choose to learn from informants who use more complex syntax (passive voice) over informants using more simple syntax (active voice). In Experiment 1 (N = 30), children viewed one informant who consistently used the passive voice and another who used active voice. When learning novel words from the two informants, children were more likely to endorse information from the passive informant. Experiment 2 (N = 32) explored whether preference for the passive informant varied by socioeconomic status (SES; eligibility for free/reduced lunch). Although higher SES children selectively preferred the passive informant, lower SES children preferred the active informant. Explanations are discussed for why SES might moderate children's sensitivity to syntactic complexity when choosing from whom to learn.

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Compared to Whom? Inequality, Social Comparison, and Happiness in the United States

Arthur Alderson & Tally Katz-Gerro

Social Forces, forthcoming

Abstract:
We contribute to the literature on positional goods and subjective well-being by providing new evidence on the following questions: Is the effect of income on subjective well-being mainly relative or absolute? Does the intensity of social comparison condition the effect of income on well-being? Does the reference group for comparison condition this effect? We present results from the Social Status, Consumption, and Happiness Survey, a national survey of Americans conducted in 2012. The findings suggest that the more highly individuals rate their income relative to others, the happier they are; that individuals who find it important to compare their income to that of others are less happy; and that the reference group that is salient for comparison conditions the association between income and well-being. We situate these findings in the literatures on the dynamics of inequality, social comparison, and well-being.

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The “Veblen” effect, targeted advertising and consumer welfare

Lynne Pepall & Joseph Reiff

Economics Letters, August 2016, Pages 218–220

Abstract:
The technology of advertising in the twenty-first century allows for better targeting of consumers and better identification of consumer subgroups in the population. This makes it easier for firms to create in their advertising a desire to belong to the group identified with a product. We explore this kind of advertising in a monopoly model. The firm has an incentive to target this kind of advertising to the most lucrative segment of a particular social grouping and while advertising does create value for the consumer, it leads to an outcome where less output is sold at a higher price in a narrower or more segmented market than in the standard monopoly model. As a result even though consumers value the identification effect they are worse off. This is because the firm uses advertising to exploit a form of price discrimination and appropriate more surplus.

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Height, Income and Voting

Raj Arunachalam & Sara Watson

British Journal of Political Science, forthcoming

Abstract:
The claim that income drives political preferences is at the core of political economy theory, yet empirical estimates of income’s effect on political behavior range widely. Drawing on traditions in economic history and anthropology, we propose using height as a proxy for economic well-being. Using data from the British Household Panel Study, this article finds that taller individuals are more likely to support the Conservative Party, support conservative policies and vote Conservative; a one-inch increase in height increases support for Conservatives by 0.6 per cent. As an extension, the study employs height as an instrumental variable for income, and finds that each additional thousand pounds of annual income translates into a 2–3 percentage point increase in the probability of supporting the Conservatives, and that income drives political beliefs and voting in the same direction.

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The division of inter-vivos parental transfers in Europe

Javier Olivera

Journal of the Economics of Ageing, forthcoming

Abstract:
This paper explores the patterns of the division of inter-vivos financial transfers from old parents to adult children in a sample of 14 European countries drawn from two waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe. Contrary to previous research, mostly focused on the US, this study finds a higher number of parents who divide their financial transfers among their adult children equally. On average, 36% of European parents divide equally. These results contrast sharply with the approximately 6.4%-9.2% of American parents giving equal transfers. It is possible that altruistic parents are also concerned with a norm of equal division, and therefore they do not fully offset the differences of income among their children as predicted by the standard model of altruism. The econometric results show that parents are more likely to give equal transfers if, in their view, income inequality among their children is not too high. Furthermore, the analysis is extended by adding variables at the country level. In this regard, income inequality, pension expenditures, the societal level of altruism and inheritance taxes are key to explaining country differences.

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Trends in Income-Related Gaps in Enrollment in Early Childhood Education: 1968 to 2013

Katherine Magnuson & Jane Waldfogel

AERA Open, May 2016

Abstract:
We use data from the 1968–2013 October Current Population Survey to document trends in 3- and 4-year-old children’s enrollment in center-based early childhood education, focusing on gaps in enrollment among children from low-, middle-, and high-income families. We find that income-related gaps in enrollment widened in the 1970s and 1980s but appear to have plateaued or narrowed for succeeding cohorts. These patterns are consistent with recent trends in income-related gaps in school achievement.

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The Genetics of Success: How Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms Associated With Educational Attainment Relate to Life-Course Development

Daniel Belsky et al.

Psychological Science, July 2016, Pages 957-972

Abstract:
A previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) of more than 100,000 individuals identified molecular-genetic predictors of educational attainment. We undertook in-depth life-course investigation of the polygenic score derived from this GWAS using the four-decade Dunedin Study (N = 918). There were five main findings. First, polygenic scores predicted adult economic outcomes even after accounting for educational attainments. Second, genes and environments were correlated: Children with higher polygenic scores were born into better-off homes. Third, children’s polygenic scores predicted their adult outcomes even when analyses accounted for their social-class origins; social-mobility analysis showed that children with higher polygenic scores were more upwardly mobile than children with lower scores. Fourth, polygenic scores predicted behavior across the life course, from early acquisition of speech and reading skills through geographic mobility and mate choice and on to financial planning for retirement. Fifth, polygenic-score associations were mediated by psychological characteristics, including intelligence, self-control, and interpersonal skill. Effect sizes were small. Factors connecting DNA sequence with life outcomes may provide targets for interventions to promote population-wide positive development.

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A tale of two Ginis in the US, 1921–2012

Markus Schneider & Daniele Tavani

International Review of Applied Economics, forthcoming

Abstract:
Following a methodology by Jantzen and Volpert (2012), we use IRS Adjusted Gross Income data for the US (1921–2012) to estimate two Gini-like indices representing inequality at the bottom and the top of the income distribution, and to calculate the overall Gini as a function of the parameters underlying the two indices. A steady increase in the overall Gini since the Second World War actually hides two different periods of distributional changes. First, the increase in inequality from the mid 1940s to the late 1970s is driven by rising inequality at the bottom of the income distribution that more than offsets a decrease in inequality at the top. The implication is that middle-income earners gained relative to high-incomes, and especially relative to low-income earners. Second, the rise in the Gini after 1981 is driven by rising inequality at the top. Third, top-driven inequality follows a U-shaped trajectory consistent with Piketty and Saez (2003, 2006). Fourth, the welfare effects of the different distributional changes behind increasing inequality can be evaluated in light of the Lorenz-dominance criterion by Atkinson (1970): we argue that the rise in inequality since 1981 is much more likely to be associated with a social welfare loss net of compensating growth.

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Educational Mobility across Three Generations of American Women

Sarah Kroeger & Owen Thompson

Economics of Education Review, August 2016, Pages 72–86

Abstract:
We analyze the intergenerational transmission of education in a three-generation sample of women from the 20th century US. We find strong three-generation educational persistence, with the association between the education of grandmothers and their granddaughters approximately two times stronger than would be expected under the type of first-order autoregressive transmission structure that has been assumed in much of the existing two-generation mobility literature. These findings are robust to using alternative empirical specifications and sample constructions, and are successfully replicated in a second independently drawn data set. Analyses that include males in the youngest and oldest generations produce very similar estimates. A variety of potential mechanisms linking the educational outcomes of grandparents and grandchildren are discussed and where possible tested empirically.

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The Gift of Moving: Intergenerational Consequences of a Mobility Shock

Emi Nakamura, Jósef Sigurdsson & Jón Steinsson

NBER Working Paper, July 2016

Abstract:
We exploit a volcanic “experiment” to study the costs and benefits of geographic mobility. We show that moving costs (broadly defined) are very large and labor therefore does not flow to locations where it earns the highest returns. In our experiment, a third of the houses in a town were covered by lava. People living in these houses where much more likely to move away permanently. For those younger than 25 years old who were induced to move, the “lava shock” dramatically raised lifetime earnings and education. Yet, the benefits of moving were very unequally distributed within the family: Those older than 25 (the parents) were made slightly worse off by the shock. The town affected by our volcanic experiment was (and is) a relatively high income town. We interpret our findings as evidence of the importance of comparative advantage: the gains to moving may be very large for those badly matched to the location they happened to be born in, even if differences in average income are small.

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Far from Equilibrium: Wealth Reallocation in the United States

Yonatan Berman, Ole Peters & Alexander Adamou

London Mathematical Laboratory Working Paper, May 2016

Abstract:
Studies of wealth inequality often assume that an observed wealth distribution reflects a system in equilibrium. This constraint is rarely tested empirically. We introduce a simple model that allows equilibrium but does not assume it. To geometric Brownian motion (GBM) we add reallocation: all individuals contribute in proportion to their wealth and receive equal shares of the amount collected. We fit the reallocation rate parameter required for the model to reproduce observed wealth inequality in the United States from 1917 to 2012. We find that this rate was positive until the 1980s, after which it became negative and of increasing magnitude. With negative reallocation, the system cannot equilibrate. Even with the positive reallocation rates observed, equilibration is too slow to be practically relevant. Therefore, studies which assume equilibrium must be treated skeptically. By design they are unable to detect the dramatic conditions found here when data are analysed without this constraint.

By KEVIN LEWIS | 09:00:00 AM

Thursday, July 21, 2016

The right stuff

When and Why We See Victims as Responsible: The Impact of Ideology on Attitudes Toward Victims

Laura Niemi & Liane Young

Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, forthcoming

Abstract:
Why do victims sometimes receive sympathy for their suffering and at other times scorn and blame? Here we show a powerful role for moral values in attitudes toward victims. We measured moral values associated with unconditionally prohibiting harm (“individualizing values”) versus moral values associated with prohibiting behavior that destabilizes groups and relationships (“binding values”: loyalty, obedience to authority, and purity). Increased endorsement of binding values predicted increased ratings of victims as contaminated (Studies 1-4); increased blame and responsibility attributed to victims, increased perceptions of victims’ (versus perpetrators’) behaviors as contributing to the outcome, and decreased focus on perpetrators (Studies 2-3). Patterns persisted controlling for politics, just world beliefs, and right-wing authoritarianism. Experimentally manipulating linguistic focus off of victims and onto perpetrators reduced victim blame. Both binding values and focus modulated victim blame through victim responsibility attributions. Findings indicate the important role of ideology in attitudes toward victims via effects on responsibility attribution.

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Media coverage of “wise” interventions can reduce concern for the disadvantaged

Elif Ikizer & Hart Blanton

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, June 2016, Pages 135-147

Abstract:
Recent articulation of the “wise” approach to psychological intervention has drawn attention to the way small, seemingly trivial social psychological interventions can exert powerful, long-term effects. These interventions have been used to address such wide-ranging social issues as the racial achievement gap, environmental conservation, and the promotion of safer sex. Although there certainly are good reasons to seek easier as opposed to harder solutions to social problems, we examine a potentially undesirable effect that can result from common media portrayals of wise interventions. By emphasizing the ease with which interventions help address complex social problems, media reports might decrease sympathy for the individuals assisted by such efforts. Three studies provide evidence for this, showing that media coverage of wise interventions designed to address academic and health disparities increased endorsement of the view that the disadvantaged can solve their problems on their own, and the tendency to blame such individuals for their circumstances. Effects were strongest for interventions targeted at members of a historically disadvantaged group (African Americans as opposed to college students) and when the coverage was read by conservatives as opposed to liberals. Attempts to undermine this effect by introducing cautious language had mixed success.

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Up-regulation of neural indicators of empathic concern in an offender population

Nathan Arbuckle & Matthew Shane

Social Neuroscience, forthcoming

Abstract:
Empathic concern has traditionally been conceived of as a spontaneous reaction to others experiencing pain or distress. As such, the potential role of more deliberate control over empathic responses has frequently been overlooked. The present fMRI study evaluated the role of such deliberate control in empathic concern by examining the extent to which a sample of offenders recruited through probation/parole could voluntarily modulate their neural activity to another person in pain. Offenders were asked to either passively view pictures of other people in painful or non-painful situations, or to actively modulate their level of concern for the person in pain. During passive viewing of painful versus non-painful pictures, offenders showed minimal neural activity in regions previously linked to empathy for pain (e.g., dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and bilateral insula). However, when instructed to try to increase their concern for the person in pain, offenders demonstrated significant increases within these regions. These findings are consistent with recent theories of empathy as motivational in nature, and suggest that limitations in empathic concern may include a motivational component.

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Evolution and Kantian morality

Ingela Alger & Jörgen Weibull

Games and Economic Behavior, July 2016, Pages 56–67

Abstract:
What kind of preferences should one expect evolution to favor? We propose a definition of evolutionary stability of preferences in interactions in groups of arbitrary finite size. Groups are formed under random matching that may be assortative. Individuals' preferences are their private information. The set of potential preferences are all those that can be represented by continuous functions. We show that a certain class of such preferences, that combine self-interest with morality of a Kantian flavor, are evolutionarily stable, and that preferences resulting in other behaviors are evolutionarily unstable. We also establish a connection between evolutionary stability of preferences and a generalized version of Maynard Smith's and Price's (1973) notion of evolutionary stability of strategies.

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How Large Is the Role of Emotion in Judgments of Moral Dilemmas?

Zachary Horne & Derek Powell

PLoS ONE, July 2016

Abstract:
Moral dilemmas often pose dramatic and gut-wrenching emotional choices. It is now widely accepted that emotions are not simply experienced alongside people’s judgments about moral dilemmas, but that our affective processes play a central role in determining those judgments. However, much of the evidence purporting to demonstrate the connection between people’s emotional responses and their judgments about moral dilemmas has recently been called into question. In the present studies, we reexamined the role of emotion in people’s judgments about moral dilemmas using a validated self-report measure of emotion. We measured participants’ specific emotional responses to moral dilemmas and, although we found that moral dilemmas evoked strong emotional responses, we found that these responses were only weakly correlated with participants’ moral judgments. We argue that the purportedly strong connection between emotion and judgments of moral dilemmas may have been overestimated.

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The Effects of Victim Anonymity on Unethical Behavior

Kai Chi Yam & Scott Reynolds

Journal of Business Ethics, June 2016, Pages 13-22

Abstract:
We theorize that victim anonymity is an important factor in ethical decision making, such that actors engage in more self-interested and unethical behaviors toward anonymous victims than they do toward identifiable victims. Three experiments provided empirical support for this argument. In Study 1, participants withheld more life-saving products from anonymous than from identifiable victims. In Study 2, participants allocated a sum of payment more unfairly when interacting with an anonymous than with an identifiable partner. Finally, in Study 3, participants cheated more from an anonymous than from an identifiable person. Anticipated guilt fully mediated these effects in all three studies. Taken together, our research suggests that anonymous victims may be more likely to incur unethical treatment, which could explain many unethical business behaviors.

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Moral values and increasing stakes in a dictator game

Uta Schier, Axel Ockenfels & Wilhelm Hofmann

Journal of Economic Psychology, October 2016, Pages 107–115

Abstract:
Using data from a large representative US sample (N=1,519), we compare hypothetical moral fairness values from the Moral Foundations Sacredness Scale with actual fairness behavior in an incentivized dictator game with either low or high stakes. We find that people with high moral fairness values fail to live up to their high fairness standards, when stake size increases. This violates principles from consistency theories according to which moral values are supposedly aligned with moral behavior, but is in line with temptation theories that question the absoluteness of morality values.

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Why Do People Tend to Infer “Ought” From “Is”? The Role of Biases in Explanation

Christina Tworek & Andrei Cimpian

Psychological Science, forthcoming

Abstract:
People tend to judge what is typical as also good and appropriate — as what ought to be. What accounts for the prevalence of these judgments, given that their validity is at best uncertain? We hypothesized that the tendency to reason from “is” to “ought” is due in part to a systematic bias in people’s (nonmoral) explanations, whereby regularities (e.g., giving roses on Valentine’s Day) are explained predominantly via inherent or intrinsic facts (e.g., roses are beautiful). In turn, these inherence-biased explanations lead to value-laden downstream conclusions (e.g., it is good to give roses). Consistent with this proposal, results from five studies (N = 629 children and adults) suggested that, from an early age, the bias toward inherence in explanations fosters inferences that imbue observed reality with value. Given that explanations fundamentally determine how people understand the world, the bias toward inherence in these judgments is likely to exert substantial influence over sociomoral understanding.

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Morality in the Market

Tone Ognedal

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, September 2016, Pages 100–115

Abstract:
Being honest can be a competitive disadvantage. In markets with the opportunity to violate laws and regulations, producers who are willing to cheat may crowd out more efficient producers who are honest, and buyers who are willing to cheat may crowd out honest buyers with higher willingness to pay. This mechanism makes morality (honesty) a bad substitute for sanctions in markets. Honesty reduces cheating, but the output may be less efficiently produced and less efficiently allocated among buyers. I also show that the effect of honesty depends crucially on the fraction of honest traders among both buyers and sellers. While it does not matter whether a buyer or a seller pays the sanction, it does matter who is honest.

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Disassociating the Agent From the Self: Undermining Belief in Free Will Diminishes True Self-Knowledge

Elizabeth Seto & Joshua Hicks

Social Psychological and Personality Science, forthcoming

Abstract:
Undermining the belief in free will influences thoughts and behavior, yet little research has explored its implications for the self and identity. The current studies examined whether lowering free will beliefs reduces perceived true self-knowledge. First, a new free will manipulation was validated. Next, in Study 1, participants were randomly assigned to high belief or low belief in free will conditions and completed measures of true self-knowledge. In Study 2, participants completed the same free will manipulation and a moral decision-making task. We then assessed participants’ perceived sense of authenticity during the task. Results illustrated that attenuating free will beliefs led to less self-knowledge, such that participants reported feeling more alienated from their true selves and experienced lowered perceptions of authenticity while making moral decisions. The interplay between free will and the true self are discussed.

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Morality or competence? The importance of affirming the appropriate dimension of self-integrity

Donna Jessop et al.

British Journal of Health Psychology, forthcoming

Methods: Participants were presented with a morality affirmation, competence affirmation, or no affirmation control prior to reading a message about the risks of (1) not engaging in daily dental flossing (Study 1) and (2) red meat consumption (Study 2). Participants subsequently completed a number of measures assessing acceptance of the message.

Results: In line with predictions, findings from both studies demonstrated that the morality affirmation precipitated greater acceptance of personally relevant health risk information compared to the competence affirmation, as reflected in more positive attitudes (Studies 1 and 2) and intentions (Study 1). Study 2's findings further suggested that the superior efficacy of the morality affirmation in health-related contexts could not simply be attributed to a general tendency for this affirmation to outperform the competence affirmation.

Conclusions: The nature of the value affirmed may be a critical factor in determining the success of self-affirmation manipulations in health-related domains.

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Unjustified side effects were strongly intended: Taboo tradeoffs and the side-effect effect

Andrew Vonasch & Roy Baumeister

Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming

Abstract:
The side-effect effect is the seemingly irrational tendency for people to say harmful side effects were more intentional than helpful side effects of the same action. But the tendency may not be irrational. According to the Tradeoffs Justification Model, judgments of a person's intentions to cause harm depend on how that person decided to act, and on whether the reasons for acting justified causing the harmful consequences. Across three experiments (N = 660), unjustified harms were viewed as more intentional than justified harms. If the person had a choice of what to do and knowingly caused harm for no good reason, people judged that the person must have actually desired and intended to cause the harm. However, if the person had a strong, compelling reason (e.g., to ransom his daughter from kidnappers) that the observer deemed to have justified causing the harm, then observers thought the harm was weakly intended at most. Taboo harms that violated sacred moral values were especially likely to be seen as intentional because most reasons do not adequately justify violating a sacred value.

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Meat eaters by dissociation: How we present, prepare and talk about meat increases willingness to eat meat by reducing empathy and disgust

Jonas Kunst & Sigrid Hohle

Appetite, forthcoming

Abstract:
Many people enjoy eating meat but dislike causing pain to animals. Dissociating meat from its animal origins may be a powerful way to avoid cognitive dissonance resulting from this ‘meat paradox’. Here, we provide the first comprehensive test of this hypothesis, highlighting underlying psychological mechanisms. Processed meat made participants less empathetic towards the slaughtered animal than unprocessed meat (Study 1). When beheaded, a whole roasted pork evoked less empathy (Study 2a) and disgust (Study 2b) than when the head was present. These affective responses, in turn, made participants more willing to eat the roast and less willing to consider an alternative vegetarian dish. Conversely, presenting a living animal in a meat advertisement increased empathy and reduced willingness to eat meat (Study 3). Next, describing industrial meat production as “harvesting” versus “killing” or “slaughtering” indirectly reduced empathy (Study 4). Last, replacing “meat/pork” with “cow/pig” in a restaurant menu increased empathy and disgust, which both equally reduced willingness to eat meat and increased willingness to choose an alternative vegetarian dish (Study 5). In all experiments, effects were strongly mediated by dissociation and interacted with participants' general dissociation tendencies in Study 3 and 5, so that effects were particularly pronounced among participants who generally spend efforts disassociating meat from animals in their daily lives. Together, this line of research demonstrates the large role various culturally-entrenched processes of dissociation play for meat consumption.

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The Tipping Point of Moral Change: When Do Good and Bad Acts Make Good and Bad Actors?

Nadav Klein & Ed O'Brien

Social Cognition, April 2016, Pages 149-166

Abstract:
Moral and immoral behaviors often come in small doses. A person might donate just a few dollars to charity or cheat on just one exam question. Small actions create ambiguity about when they might reflect a permanent change in an actor's moral character versus simply a passing trend. At what sum of good or bad behaviors do observers believe that others have transformed for better or worse, when their actions begin to reflect “them”? Five experiments reveal that this moral tipping point is asymmetric. People require more evidence to perceive improvement than decline; it is apparently easier to become a sinner than a saint, despite exhibiting equivalent evidence for change. This asymmetry emerges more strongly when targets commit new actions (e.g., begin treating others well or poorly) than when targets cease existing actions (stop treating others well or poorly). This asymmetry in moral judgment fosters inequitable thresholds for reward and punishment.

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When It’s Bad to Be Friendly and Smart: The Desirability of Sociability and Competence Depends on Morality

Justin Landy, Jared Piazza & Geoffrey Goodwin

Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, forthcoming

Abstract:
Morality, sociability, and competence are distinct dimensions in person perception. We argue that a person’s morality informs us about their likely intentions, whereas their competence and sociability inform us about the likelihood that they will fulfill those intentions. Accordingly, we hypothesized that whereas morality would be considered unconditionally positive, sociability and competence would be highly positive only in moral others, and would be less positive in immoral others. Using exploratory factor analyses, Studies 1a and 1b distinguished evaluations of morality and sociability. Studies 2 to 5 then showed that sociability and competence are evaluated positively contingent on morality — Study 2 demonstrated this phenomenon, while the remaining studies explained it (Study 3), generalized it (Studies 3-5), and ruled out an alternative explanation for it (Study 5). Study 6 showed that the positivity of morality traits is independent of other morality traits. These results support a functionalist account of these dimensions of person perception.

By KEVIN LEWIS | 09:00:00 AM

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Hands-on management

Productivity Spillovers in Team Production: Evidence from Professional Basketball

Peter Arcidiacono, Joshua Kinsler & Joseph Price

Journal of Labor Economics, forthcoming

Abstract:
We estimate a model where workers are heterogeneous both in their own productivity and in their ability to facilitate the productivity of others. We use data from professional basketball to measure the importance of peers in productivity because we have clear measures of output, and members of a worker’s group change on a regular basis. Our empirical results highlight that productivity spillovers play an important role in team production. Despite this, we find that worker compensation is largely determined by own productivity with little weight given to productivity spillovers.

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The Effects of Mentor Quality, Exposure, and Type on Junior Officer Retention in the United States Army

Susan Payne Carter et al.

NBER Working Paper, July 2016

Abstract:
Despite the prevalence of mentor relationships in the workplace, little is known about their impact on labor market outcomes, including job retention. Using plausibly exogenous assignment of protégés to mentors in the U.S. Army, we find positive retention effects for protégés assigned to high-performing immediate and senior supervisors. These positive effects are strongest for those with high SAT scores. We find virtually no evidence of type-matched mentoring effects on retention, except when mentors are also high-performing. For protégés serving under high-performing mentors, matching on high SAT score and home division positively impacts protégé retention.

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Economic downturns undermine workplace helping by promoting a zero-sum construal of success

Nina Sirola & Marko Pitesa

Academy of Management Journal, forthcoming

Abstract:
Workplace helping is essential to the success of organizations and economies. Given the economic benefits of helping, it seems important that during difficult economic periods the amount of helping does not decline. In this research, we propose and show that it does. We argue that cues that signal the economy is performing poorly prompt a construal that the success of one person implies less success for others. This zero-sum construal of success in turn makes employees less inclined to help. Four studies found evidence consistent with our theory. Study 1 found that worse economic periods are associated with a more zero-sum construal of success using data from 59,694 respondents surveyed across 51 countries and 17 years and objective indicators of their macroeconomic environments. Studies 2 and 3 were experiments among employees of U.S. organizations that found an induced perception that the U.S. economy was performing poorly led to a more zero-sum construal of success and made employees less inclined to help. Study 4 was an unobtrusive experiment among freelance professionals from 47 countries that found that participants' perception that the economy in their country was in a downturn was associated with a more zero-sum construal of success and less helping behavior. This research demonstrates the importance of bridging the macro-micro divide in organizational sciences and considering the impact of macroeconomic changes on individual employee psychology and behavior.

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New Blood as an Elixir of Youth: Effects of Human Capital Tenure on the Explorative Capability of Aging Firms

Ted Tschang & Gokhan Ertug

Organization Science, forthcoming

Abstract:
The relationship between firm age and innovation has been an enduring topic of interest. We contribute to this research by studying how the effect of firm age on the quality of explorative and exploitative innovations is affected by the firm-specific and industry tenure of the talent resources (employees) that the firm utilizes. We start with the baseline predictions that firm age is related to the development of better exploitative innovations and worse explorative innovations. However, the tenure of employees intervenes in these relationships, by way of bringing in new knowledge, mental models, and beliefs. We predict that longer firm-specific and industry tenure of employees enhances the positive effect of firm age on the quality of exploitative innovations, while amplifying the negative effect of firm age on the quality of explorative innovations. In addition, for both the baseline and the moderating effect, we also formulate a prediction comparing the quality of explorative innovations with those of exploitative innovations. We find support for the moderating effects of human capital tenure for the quality of explorative innovations, but not for the quality of exploitative innovations. We reason that the latter may be due to the need for some level of exploration even in exploitative innovations, at least in the setting we study — the video game industry. Our results suggest that the negative effects of firm age on the quality of explorative innovations can be mitigated by talent resources (employees) the firm uses who have lower firm-specific and industrywide tenure.

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Do We Really Need to Change the Decision Maker? Counterintuitive Escalation of Commitment Results in Real Options Contexts

William Boulding, Abhijit Guha & Richard Staelin

Management Science, forthcoming

Abstract:
A robust finding in the escalation literature, termed as the preference effect, is that involvement in the period 1 initial project assessment decision increases the tendency for decision makers to stick with a losing course of action during the period 2 project reassessment decision. The proposed solution is to bring in a new decision maker in period 2. Across multiple studies, we show that providing period 1 information in real options format increases the tendency for decision makers to view period 2 focal event information as both more negative and more important. Consequently, such decision makers exhibit less escalation in period 2, i.e., exhibit behavior opposite to the preference effect. This suggests that, in real option contexts, not only do we not need to bring in a new decision maker, but also (counterintuitively) it is beneficial to retain the same decision maker in situations where escalation is likely to occur.

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A New Approach to an Age-Old Problem: Solving Externalities by Incenting Workers Directly

Greer Gosnell, John List & Robert Metcalfe

NBER Working Paper, June 2016

Abstract:
Understanding motivations in the workplace remains of utmost import as economies around the world rely on increases in labor productivity to foster sustainable economic growth. This study makes use of a unique opportunity to “look under the hood” of an organization that critically relies on worker effort and performance. By partnering with Virgin Atlantic Airways on a field experiment that includes over 40,000 unique flights covering an eight-month period, we explore how information and incentives affect captains’ performance. Making use of more than 110,000 captain-level observations, we find that our set of treatments — which include performance information, personal targets, and prosocial incentives — induces captains to improve efficiency in all three key flight areas: pre-flight, in-flight, and post-flight. We estimate that our treatments saved between 266,000-704,000 kg of fuel for the airline over the eight-month experimental period. These savings led to between 838,000-2.22 million kg of CO2 abated at a marginal abatement cost of negative $250 per ton of CO2 (i.e. a $250 savings per ton abated) over the eight-month experimental period. Methodologically, our approach highlights the potential usefulness of moving beyond an experimental design that focuses on short-run substitution effects, and it also suggests a new way to combat firm-level externalities: target workers rather than the firm as a whole.

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Be nice to your innovators: Employee treatment and corporate innovation performance

Chen Chen et al.

Journal of Corporate Finance, August 2016, Pages 78–98

Abstract:
This paper investigates the effect that employee treatment schemes have on corporate innovation performance. We find that firms with better employee treatment schemes produce more and better patents through improving employee satisfaction and teamwork. Additional tests suggest that our main findings cannot be attributed to job security, unionization, reverse causality, and omitted variables. We also find that firms with better employee treatment schemes produce patents that enhance market valuation and facilitate better future operating performance. Collectively, our findings show that treating employees well benefits firms and shareholders, for well treated employees are encouraged to create intellectual property.

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The Causes of Peer Effects in Production: Evidence from a Series of Field Experiments

John Horton & Richard Zeckhauser

NBER Working Paper, July 2016

Abstract:
Workers respond to the output choices of their peers. What explains this well documented phenomenon of peer effects? Do workers value equity, fear punishment from equity-minded peers, or does output from peers teach them about employers’ expectations? We test these alternative explanations in a series of field experiments. We find clear evidence of peer effects, as have others. Workers raise their own output when exposed to high-output peers. They also punish low-output peers, even when that low output has no effect on them. They may be embracing and enforcing the employer’s expectations. (Exposure to employer-provided work samples influences output much the same as exposure to peer-provided work.) However, even when employer expectations are clearly stated, workers increase output beyond those expectations when exposed to workers producing above expectations. Overall, the evidence is strongly consistent with the notion that peer effects are mediated by workers’ sense of fairness related to relative effort.

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Call Center Productivity Over 6 Months Following a Standing Desk Intervention

Gregory Garrett et al.

IIE Transactions on Occupational Ergonomics and Human Factors, forthcoming

Methods: This study compared objective measures of productivity over time between a group of stand-capable desk users and a seated control group in a call center. Comparison analysis was completed for continuous six-month secondary data for 167 employees, across two job categories.

Results: Users of stand-capable desks were ∼45% more productive on a daily basis compared to their seated counterparts. Further, productivity of the stand-capable desk users significantly increased over time, from ∼23% in the first month to ∼53% over the next six months. Finally, this productivity increase was similar for employees across both job categories.

Conclusions: These findings suggest important benefits of employing stand-capable desks in the work force to increase productivity. Prospective studies that include employee health status, perceptions of (dis)comfort and preference over time, along with productivity metrics, are needed to test the effectiveness of stand-capable desks on employee health and performance.

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The Impact of Idea Generation and Potential Appropriation on Entrepreneurship: An Experimental Study

Soheil Hooshangi & George Loewenstein

Management Science, forthcoming

Abstract:
Using a novel experimental paradigm, we explore how the experience of generating an idea, and the possibility that another investor might adopt a rejected investment opportunity, bias the investment decisions of innovator and imitator entrepreneurs. We find that individuals who generate a business idea form biased evaluations of economic potential of ideas, be it their own idea or somebody else’s idea. On the one hand they are overconfident about the value of, and overly likely to invest in, their own idea. On the other hand, when investing in another person’s idea, even if it is not competing with their own idea, they are underconfident about the value of, and insufficiently likely to invest in the idea. Surprisingly, we find that entrepreneurial experience exacerbates this pattern of over- and underconfidence. In addition, we find that the threat that another investor can appropriate a declined investment opportunity increases willingness to invest. We propose a theoretical account to explain the observed pattern of over- and underconfidence in imitative and innovative entrepreneurship. Our findings challenge the traditional account that lowering the cost of imitation has a disincentive effect on the investment decisions of pioneer entrepreneurs, and provide evidence that a more lenient appropriability regime may, unexpectedly, have positive effects on entrepreneurship. Our findings also identify new psychological mechanisms that can play a role in important phenomena such as the emergence of spinoffs and rush to market entry.

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The Effects of Wage Contracts on Workplace Misbehaviors: Evidence from a Call Center Natural Field Experiment

Jeffrey Flory, Andreas Leibbrandt & John List

NBER Working Paper, June 2016

Abstract:
Workplace misbehaviors are often governed by explicit monitoring and strict punishment. Such enforcement activities can serve to lessen worker productivity and harm worker morale. We take a different approach to curbing worker misbehavior — bonuses. Examining more than 6500 donor phone calls across more than 80 workers, we use a natural field experiment to investigate how different wage contracts influence workers’ propensity to cheat and sabotage one another. Our findings show that even though standard relative performance pay contracts, relative to a fixed wage scheme, increase productivity, they have a dark side: they cause considerable cheating and sabotage of co-workers. Yet, even in such environments, by including an unexpected bonus, the employer can substantially curb worker misbehavior. In this manner, our findings reveal how employers can effectively leverage bonuses to eliminate undesired behaviors induced by performance pay contracts.

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Revisiting the Small-Firm Effect on Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Firm Dissolutions

Aleksandra Kacperczyk & Matt Marx

Organization Science, forthcoming

Abstract:
Afrequent claim in the entrepreneurship literature is that employees learn to become entrepreneurs during paid employment. We revisit this mechanism in the context of the well-established finding that smaller firms generate higher rates of entrepreneurship. We propose a novel mechanism responsible for higher rates of entrepreneurship emanating from smaller firms: large firms might have a advantage over small firms in providing internal opportunities to retain entrepreneurial talent. We test this claim in a setting where firm dissolution extinguishes internal opportunities, using a new hand-collected data set of career histories in the automatic speech recognition (ASR) industry. For nondefunct firms, we replicate the “small-firm effect.” However, the small-firm effect no longer holds within the subsample of defunct firms: entrepreneurship rates among individuals present at firm dissolution are in fact higher for larger firms. Additional analyses indicate that this effect is unlikely to be driven by the early departure of higher-skilled workers who anticipate the firm’s demise. Finally, we find preliminary evidence consistent with the notion that large organizations may not only retain but also “mold” workers into entrepreneurs. More broadly, the study emphasizes the need to consider a novel mechanism responsible for transition into entrepreneurship — the role of opportunities available to employees in incumbent firms.

By KEVIN LEWIS | 09:00:00 AM


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